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Evaluation harness: Belgium jurisdiction with Axiom, EUROMOD-engine, and EUROMOD/SILC sources - #164

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Aug 23, 2026
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Evaluation harness: Belgium jurisdiction with Axiom, EUROMOD-engine, and EUROMOD/SILC sources#164
MaxGhenis merged 1 commit into
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Belgium becomes a first-class jurisdiction of the cross-dataset evaluation (the /microcosm/datasets bundle), with EUROMOD entering as sources scored against Chronicle actuals rather than as a bespoke panel (the panel added in #163 is being removed in a sibling PR).

Sources (precomputed checkpoints, schema microcosm_be.evaluation_source_checkpoint.v1, every cell with an estimate_basis):

  • microcosm_be_v04_axiom — Microcosm-BE v0.4 population × Axiom rules engine (56/66 surface rows)
  • microcosm_be_v04_euromod — Microcosm-BE v0.4 population × EUROMOD BE_2025 engine (55/66)
  • euromod_be2025_jrc_silc — EUROMOD BE_2025 on its own EU-SILC input, JRC country report EUROMOD column (4/66 today; the remaining columns are a Chronicle package follow-up)

Harness changes:

  • generic precomputed-checkpoint adapter (Yale now uses the shared materializer; no fork)
  • composite rows as semantic aggregates (565 commune fiscal-income facts; D41+D42)
  • tested calibration-exposure rule so in-sample calibration measures never read as independent fits
  • snapshot jurisdiction derivation for BE (726 BE facts from the 760-row bundle; 34 non-BE comparators stay unknown)
  • --jurisdictions (default US, behaviour unchanged), per-jurisdiction source registry, --precomputed-checkpoint, --microcosm-release-dir
  • docs: jurisdiction model replaces "US-only"

403 tests green. The BE bundle produced by this branch (run evaluation-f28ca06a…, snapshot chronicle-82b574e3…, all partition hashes verified, jurisdictions: ["BE"]) is published separately and wired via CROSS_DATASET_ARTIFACT_BASE_URL.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

- Generic precomputed-checkpoint adapter (microcosm_be.evaluation_source_checkpoint.v1):
  joins chronicle_record_ids to snapshot facts, composite rows as semantic aggregates
  (CPS ASEC 80-84 convention), estimate_basis carried into result provenance; the
  Yale checkpoint now uses the shared materializer instead of its own.
- Tested calibration-exposure rule: direct_calibration_target only for release-target
  facts with calibration_measure/dataset_weights basis; related_calibration_family for
  engine-simulated values of calibrated concepts; out_of_sample otherwise.
- Snapshot jurisdiction derivation: BE only from package source_id belgium, Eurostat
  geo=BE, or NIS geography vintages (760-row bundle -> 726 BE + 34 unknown comparators).
- run_full_chronicle_evaluation.py: --jurisdictions (default US, unchanged), a per-
  jurisdiction source-plan registry, --precomputed-checkpoint, --microcosm-release-dir.
- docs/cross-dataset-api.md: jurisdiction model replaces the US-only statement.
- 403 tests green incl. a trimmed BE end-to-end run with all three sources.

Authored by a sol lane; reviewed by fable.
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