AdaWorldAPI · Oct 10, 2026 · Oct 10, 2026 · Oct 10, 2026 · Oct 10, 2026
diff --git a/.claude/board/STATUS_BOARD.md b/.claude/board/STATUS_BOARD.md
@@ -54,8 +54,8 @@ Plan: `.claude/plans/2026-10-08-resident-projection-fold-mask-v1.md`. Mask = adm
 | **D-RPF-6** | Tile skip on zero gate measured on resident-row predicates (capstone pt 3) | Queued | identical answers; dead-tile beside dead-word fraction |
 | **D-RPF-7** | Rank spectrum of the 256×256 palette distance LUTs | Queued (measurement only) | reported; never a fold |
 | **D-RPF-CONF-0** | Confidence surface: Rust vs exact integer form, (255,255), zero-weight identity, c=255 candidates, census of live revision laws | Shipped (#1424; measured) | T1 three one-code f32 deviations; (255,255) → (0,0); 24 defs → 7 laws → 4 behaviours; G1 open (`entries/2026-10-09-d-rpf-conf-0-confidence-surface.md`) |
-| **D-RPF-TABLE-1** | Cost of `NarsTables` resolutions B1..B16 vs exact revision A: surface, replay drift, decision flips, throughput | Shipped (#1426; measured); G2 follow-up: law-A load-bearing fixture + frequency-bar rationale without B1's constant (this PR) | B1 2.2–4.4× hot replay, 37.9% verdict flips; no Bn decision-stable; A wins cold; law-A fixture 210 → 64 flips, B1–B8 miss it, B16 agrees (`entries/2026-10-09-d-rpf-table-1-fast-path-cost.md`) |
-| **D-RPF-P5** | NARS ↔ Beta correspondence on the CE64 surface: Jeffreys identity, unit-evidence stall, duplicate inflation, variance coarseness, 255 unreachable | In PR (tests only) | E1 exact for k = 1, k = 2 distinguishable; E2 stall at c = 244 after 20 unit obs; E2b 12-row stall table; E3 4 copies → sd 2.04× too small; E5 max revision code 254; ceil-rounding disable turns E2/E2b/E5 red (`entries/2026-10-10-d-rpf-p5-nars-beta-correspondence.md`) |
+| **D-RPF-TABLE-1** | Cost of `NarsTables` resolutions B1..B16 vs exact revision A: surface, replay drift, decision flips, throughput | Shipped (#1426; measured); G2 follow-up: law-A load-bearing fixture + frequency-bar rationale without B1's constant (#1440) | B1 2.2–4.4× hot replay, 37.9% verdict flips; no Bn decision-stable; A wins cold; law-A fixture 210 → 64 flips, B1–B8 miss it, B16 agrees (`entries/2026-10-09-d-rpf-table-1-fast-path-cost.md`) |
+| **D-RPF-P5** | NARS ↔ Beta correspondence on the CE64 surface: Jeffreys identity, unit-evidence stall, duplicate inflation, variance coarseness, 255 unreachable | Shipped (#1440; tests only) | E1 exact for k = 1, k = 2 distinguishable; E2 stall at c = 244 after 20 unit obs; E2b 12-row stall table; E3 4 copies → sd 2.04× too small; E5 max revision code 254; ceil-rounding disable turns E2/E2b/E5 red (`entries/2026-10-10-d-rpf-p5-nars-beta-correspondence.md`) |
 | **D-RPF-8** | Boundary: mask-risc never executes CE64 instructions; no VSA on this path | Queued (doc) | review-enforced |
 | **D-RPF-9** | Fold-Join deforestation probe: resident ∧ resident, predicate chains gated/ungated, CE64 in place, strided pattern merge | Shipped (probe; R2/R3/G1–G3 proposed) | every arm equals the oracle; care-shift fires, non-care rewrite silent; merge precondition refuses conflicting cares |
 
@@ -105,8 +105,9 @@ Plan: `.claude/plans/2026-10-06-global-sudoku-replayable-orchestration-v1.md`. O
 | **D-MOORE-NARS-0** | Recipe learning from reasoning consequences on Gomoku (`cognitive-shader-driver/examples/moore_nars_gomoku_probe.rs`): census of the 34 recipes, 9 realized on Moore lines, structural `situation → recipe` NARS learner | Shipped (#1400) | persistent structural learner 0.500 → 0.535 vs best fixed recipe 0.498 and reset-every-game ~0.47; literal-board memory and immediate credit learn nothing; W-delayed one-reply credit is the spine; transfer to unseen openings 0.526 vs 0.493; "less work" not achieved (~280 folds/step); unlearning after switch not demonstrated (`entries/2026-10-08-moore-nars-0-recipe-learning-gomoku.md`) |
 | **D-MOORE-PERT-AB-0** | Moore perturbation field A/B probe with an independent arm and statistical comparison (`examples/MoorePertubationsfeld.rs`) | Shipped (#1427; probe) | CI line; percentile fix; timings dropped from asserts; falsifiable tests |
 | **D-MOORE-OBSERVABLE-FIRST-0** | Certify N-1 overload decisions before field convergence (linear flow model) | Shipped (#1428; measured) | solver-agnostic ‖r‖₁ bound + warm start certifies most decisions early; PCG/LODF beat Jacobi; bound proven for the linear flow model only (`entries/2026-10-09-d-moore-observable-first-0.md`) |
-| **D-LAB-P1** | Certified argmax on Gomoku minimax: deterministic `L_best ≥ U_j` cutoff (`minimax_certified`) | In PR (probe) | same pick as `minimax` on 400 positions at k 4/4, 5/5, 8/8; folds −36.2 / −44.8 / −61.0 %; cut at `L + 1` changes a pick (`entries/2026-10-10-d-lab-p1-certified-argmax-gomoku.md`) |
-| **D-SELF-CALIBRATING-LAB-0** | Hypothesis lab v0: shared paired/Holm/verdict/reliability statistics (`examples/shared/lab.rs`) + Gomoku arm (`moore_nars_gomoku_probe --lab`) | In PR (probe; Gomoku + crossword) | crossword (16 fresh puzzles): C1 Support −36× nodes SUPPORTED, C2–C4 ops FALSIFIED (Support 13×, Single 2.9×, Pair 2.2× more ops); Gomoku fresh-seed confirmation, 16 blocks: H2 learned > fixed HPM +0.024 SUPPORTED; H4 certified −29 folds/step, identical games at cost 0 SUPPORTED; H7 cost term −143 folds/step SUPPORTED (−0.026 score); H3 INCONCLUSIVE; H5 FALSIFIED; e ECE 0.05 over non-neutral outcomes (`entries/2026-10-10-d-self-calibrating-lab-0.md`) |
+| **D-LAB-P1** | Certified argmax on Gomoku minimax: deterministic `L_best ≥ U_j` cutoff (`minimax_certified`) | Shipped (#1440; probe) | same pick as `minimax` on 400 positions at k 4/4, 5/5, 8/8; folds −36.2 / −44.8 / −61.0 %; cut at `L + 1` changes a pick (`entries/2026-10-10-d-lab-p1-certified-argmax-gomoku.md`) |
+| **D-SELF-CALIBRATING-LAB-0** | Hypothesis lab v0: shared paired/Holm/verdict/reliability statistics (`examples/shared/lab.rs`) + Gomoku arm (`moore_nars_gomoku_probe --lab`) | Shipped (#1440; probe; Gomoku + crossword) | crossword (16 fresh puzzles): C1 Support −36× nodes SUPPORTED, C2–C4 ops FALSIFIED (Support 13×, Single 2.9×, Pair 2.2× more ops); Gomoku fresh-seed confirmation, 16 blocks: H2 learned > fixed HPM +0.024 SUPPORTED; H4 certified −29 folds/step, identical games at cost 0 SUPPORTED; H7 cost term −143 folds/step SUPPORTED (−0.026 score); H3 INCONCLUSIVE; H5 FALSIFIED; e ECE 0.05 over non-neutral outcomes (`entries/2026-10-10-d-self-calibrating-lab-0.md`) |
+| **D-SELF-CALIBRATING-LAB-1** | Lab v1 on Gomoku: Thompson chooser (Jeffreys Beta posterior) and a context-free global key, second pre-registered family | In PR (probe) | fresh seeds 4001..: T1 Thompson −0.050 score FALSIFIED; T2 adaptation −0.015 FALSIFIED; T3 structural > global +0.025 SUPPORTED; T4 Thompson folds FALSIFIED (`entries/2026-10-10-d-self-calibrating-lab-1.md`) |
 | **D-CE64-NEXTSTATE-0** | EpistemicState5 as a sparse next-state mutation of the CE64 register | In PR | `cognitive-shader-driver/examples/ce64_nextstate_probe.rs`: N1 only bits 59..63 move, all 32 codes on an edge with every field set; N2 written in cycle k through `MailboxSoA::write_row`, read in k+1 through `MailboxSoaView`; N3 the mailbox does not double-buffer (a same-cycle read sees the write), and next-cycle authority is a read discipline: start-of-cycle copy plus `last_write_cycle == cycle` treated as pending; N4 canonical LE round trip (bits 59..63 in byte 7, bits 3..7); N5 a fresh mailbox from the persisted word continues identically; N6 the shipped `with_spare` + `with_truth` compile to `bzhi; shl; or`, identical to the masked insert (LLVM folded the two), so no 5-bit writer is added. Production change: `CausalEdge64::to_le_bytes` / `from_le_bytes` (mirroring `EpisodicEdges64`) and the register contract on the type. 6 tests, 7 disable runs red |
 | **D-ANCESTRY-K1-0** | StreamDto / PerturbationDto / BusDto / p64 / shader-driver ancestry vs code | Shipped (this PR) | `entries/2026-10-06-streamdto-circuit-ancestry.md`: v3 docs first, then code (git history is shallow at #1327). The k → k+1 loop was intended (`EmitMode::Persist`, `persist_cycle`, `mailbox-thoughtspace` read shim, W4a cast pairing) and left open: the driver owned its mailbox read-only. Path B |
 | **D-STREAMDTO-0** | A real `StreamDto` through the shipped path to next-cycle #1370 eligibility | In PR | `cognitive-shader-driver/examples/streamdto_circuit_probe.rs`: `StreamDto` → the new `ingest_codebook_indices_soa` (straight into the SoA, cycle-gated `write_row`, encoding shared with the superseded BindSpace arm) → `dispatch` k → `persisted_row` gets `emitted_edges[0]` via the new `ShaderDriver::mailbox_mut` → `tick` → `dispatch` k+1 reads it and changes → `measure`. The edge steers k+1 only through `s_idx / 4`; the shader writes code 0, so eligibility is unchanged by the circuit (`0x20`, same as an unwritten word; code 7 gives `0x24`). Timestamp ≠ cycle; restart from LE bytes reproduces k+1. CI step added (feature-gated targets incl. `w2_differential` were never run). 6 tests + 1 lib test, 9 disable runs red |

diff --git a/.claude/board/entries/2026-10-10-d-self-calibrating-lab-1.md b/.claude/board/entries/2026-10-10-d-self-calibrating-lab-1.md
@@ -0,0 +1,50 @@
+# D-SELF-CALIBRATING-LAB-1 — Thompson sampling and context, a second pre-registered family (2026-10-10)
+
+**Status:** MEASURED. Probe only (`moore_nars_gomoku_probe --lab-v1`).
+**Builds on:** `entries/2026-10-10-d-self-calibrating-lab-0.md` (same
+statistics, same horizon: 300 games, endpoint = last 100-game window).
+Fresh seeds 4001–4016; a separate Holm family (α = 0.05); 16.4 s wall.
+
+## New arms
+
+- `Chooser::Thompson`: per recipe, a draw from Beta(pos + ½, neg + ½), the
+  Jeffreys posterior D-RPF-P5 identified, minus the same fold-cost term as
+  the argmax chooser. Sampler: `lab::beta_sample` (Gamma via
+  Marsaglia–Tsang, boost for shape < 1), moment-tested on Beta(½, ½),
+  Beta(2.5, 7.5), Beta(30.5, 10.5).
+- `Memory::Global`: every situation shares one key (context-free baseline).
+
+## Ledger (statistical)
+
+| id | hypothesis | effect (+ = treatment better) | 95 % CI | p | Holm | verdict |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| T1 | Thompson beats expectation argmax, score | −0.0500 | [−0.0620, −0.0380] | <0.0001 | reject | **FALSIFIED** |
+| T2 | Thompson adapts faster after Threat → Aggressor | −0.0153 | [−0.0244, −0.0062] | 0.0040 | reject | **FALSIFIED** |
+| T3 | structural context beats one global key, score | +0.0247 | [+0.0050, +0.0444] | 0.0186 | reject | **SUPPORTED** |
+| T4 | Thompson reduces folds/step | −18.5 (Thompson costs more) | [−38.4, +1.4] | 0.0596 | keep | **FALSIFIED** (the interval cannot reach the 5-fold minimum) |
+
+Pareto (empirical): argmax e 0.5062 score / 244.8 folds per step; Thompson
+0.4562 / 263.3; global 0.4816 / 32.3.
+
+## Reading
+
+- Thompson is worse here in the learned window and after a switch. A likely
+  mechanism, not tested: evidence arrives in fractional units (activation/7 ≤ 1
+  per update) spread over many structural keys, so posteriors stay wide and
+  sampling keeps exploring. Testing it needs an evidence-scale arm, not a
+  re-reading of this run.
+- Context matters (T3). The global key collapses onto cheap recipes (32
+  folds/step) and loses 0.025 score: the structural signature buys quality
+  at about 8× the folds.
+- Expectation argmax stays the chooser.
+
+Falsifiers: `beta_sample_has_the_beta_moments`,
+`thompson_is_seeded_and_differs_from_argmax`; replacing the sampler with the
+posterior mean turns both red.
+
+```
+PR (this) | STATUS: measured | OUTCOME: Thompson falsified on score (-0.050)
+and adaptation (-0.015); structural context supported (+0.025 over a global
+key) | OPEN: evidence-scale arm for Thompson; eligibility traces;
+cost-aware selector; held-out domain
+```
diff --git a/.claude/board/entries/README.md b/.claude/board/entries/README.md
@@ -25,14 +25,15 @@ index row, (3) no duplicate entry id. Checks 1 and 2 are deliberately
 opposite directions; the stranding this convention prevents shows up in
 exactly one of them, never both.
 
-291 entries, 2026-08-06 .. 2026-10-10.
+292 entries, 2026-08-06 .. 2026-10-10.
 
 | date | entry id | finding | file |
 |---|---|---|---|
 | 2026-10-10 | `E-W2-SPACE-AXIS-CUSTOM-SPACE-LEAVES-THE-CLASSID-1` | W2's space axis is decided: fixed spaces 0–3 stay in the classid, custom spaces move to the payload or edge | [2026-10-10-e-w2-space-axis-custom-space-leaves-the-classid-1.md](2026-10-10-e-w2-space-axis-custom-space-leaves-the-classid-1.md) |
 | 2026-10-10 | `D-XGP-2` |  | [2026-10-10-d-xgp-2-hotplug-billable-work-entry.md](2026-10-10-d-xgp-2-hotplug-billable-work-entry.md) |
 | 2026-10-10 | `D-XGP-1` |  | [2026-10-10-d-xgp-1-cats-binder-canonical-front.md](2026-10-10-d-xgp-1-cats-binder-canonical-front.md) |
 | 2026-10-10 | `D-XGP-0` | SAP and Odoo share a type, not a meaning | [2026-10-10-d-xgp-0-cross-glove-inventory.md](2026-10-10-d-xgp-0-cross-glove-inventory.md) |
+| 2026-10-10 | `D-SELF-CALIBRATING-LAB-1` |  | [2026-10-10-d-self-calibrating-lab-1.md](2026-10-10-d-self-calibrating-lab-1.md) |
 | 2026-10-10 | `D-SELF-CALIBRATING-LAB-0` |  | [2026-10-10-d-self-calibrating-lab-0.md](2026-10-10-d-self-calibrating-lab-0.md) |
 | 2026-10-10 | `D-RPF-P5` |  | [2026-10-10-d-rpf-p5-nars-beta-correspondence.md](2026-10-10-d-rpf-p5-nars-beta-correspondence.md) |
 | 2026-10-10 | `D-RPF-G2` |  | [2026-10-10-d-rpf-g2-law-a-boundary.md](2026-10-10-d-rpf-g2-law-a-boundary.md) |