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Ensembles: control members, dew point from relative humidity, case summaries, CRPS tests - #13

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scorvec merged 1 commit into
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claude/ensembles
Oct 28, 2026
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scorvec merged 1 commit into
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claude/ensembles

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@scorvec scorvec commented Oct 28, 2026

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  • open: a scalar member coordinate on ensemble data is the field's member, so an ensemble's control, which cfgrib
    opens apart from the perturbed members, is no longer dropped from the ensemble scores
  • variables: rh2m, and td2m derived from t2m and rh2m (Bolton 1980) for models that publish no dew point
  • ensemble.summarise: one row per case with the members' count, mean, spread, min, max, fair CRPS (and with
    observation error), the observation's rank and event probabilities, for databases that keep every case
  • significance.ensemble_tests: the paired, autocorrelation-inflated test on per-run mean CRPS

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 noreply@anthropic.com
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_0148RnpHupoNFzgsLvayCDr9

…mmaries, CRPS tests

- open: a scalar member coordinate on ensemble data is the field's member, so an ensemble's control, which cfgrib
  opens apart from the perturbed members, is no longer dropped from the ensemble scores
- variables: rh2m, and td2m derived from t2m and rh2m (Bolton 1980) for models that publish no dew point
- ensemble.summarise: one row per case with the members' count, mean, spread, min, max, fair CRPS (and with
  observation error), the observation's rank and event probabilities, for databases that keep every case
- significance.ensemble_tests: the paired, autocorrelation-inflated test on per-run mean CRPS

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_0148RnpHupoNFzgsLvayCDr9
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scorvec merged commit 5e7c387 into main Oct 28, 2026
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