OBR published economic effects of policy: AS2023–AB2025 packages, supply-side scorings, March 2026 decisions (external side)

sources/obr-policy-effects/raw/README.md

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+# obr-policy-effects raw artifacts
+
+Fetched 2026-08-20 as Wayback Machine ORIGINAL BYTES (`/web/<ts>id_/` URLs,
+honest harvester UA) — obr.uk is Cloudflare-guarded and served an interactive
+Turnstile to live requests, so no live fetch was attempted, per the
+`sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_obr/NOTES.md` access recipe (no bypasses).
+Discovery via the Wayback CDX API over `obr.uk/docs/*`.
+
+| file | original URL | snapshot | sha256 |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| efo_november2023_chapter2.xlsx | https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Chapter_2_charts_and_tables_November_2023.xlsx | 20231122212755 | 4b4b8092c1bf3e2cb84d7e6c16efcf122eec528cc5b1a40d599d3d2c89be3bdf |
+| efo_march2024_chapter2.xlsx | https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Chapter_2_charts_and_tables_March_2024.xlsx | 20240306134036 | b3bec6bc914efed2b5a7245f2f705ec82d722467c32f2057682a212c1d793e1a |
+| efo_october2024_chapter2.xlsx | https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Chapter_2_charts_and_tables_October_2024.xlsx | 20241030144507 | 9d402b235e1d8d7b469c136b13035d120eb6ea089b489a7cbe5bff7cac905a3b |
+| efo_november2025_chapter3.xlsx | https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Chapter_3_charts_and_tables_November_2025.xlsx | 20251130064953 | bb84ae66ad1e867af4c751b915b3e8d59c83146f7c6b3f9f92fc8fc7699fe3d8 |
+| efo_march2026_annex_tables.xlsx | https://obr.uk/docs/d055fbf02d5b3g6jq8l2/efo-march-2026-charts-and-tables-annex-tables.xlsx | 20260316163140 | 58a0c59cac93651a477f2c097b0f99b1dbcee417e9b54e0be3c6f92294ba0ad8 |
+| obr_briefing_paper_10_supply_side.xlsx | https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Briefing_paper_No.10_Accounting_for_the_supply-side_effects_of_policy_measures_charts_and_tables.xlsx | 20251126134224 | 8ca1af0be01762edc75a4c3c9fde1e455732068b0140483cd1ffde2c4b11843f |
+
+## What was surveyed and deliberately NOT kept
+
+The Annex A charts-and-tables workbooks for Nov 2023, Mar 2024, Oct 2024,
+Mar 2025 and Nov 2025 were fetched and inspected: their Tables A.1–A.12 are
+economy/fiscal forecast levels (already covered by the EFO adapters and the
+uk_obr harvest), with NO policy-effects content — so they are not vendored.
+The Mar 2025, Nov 2025 and Mar 2026 Chapter 2 workbooks likewise carry no
+policy-impact chart (2025+ EFOs moved policy effects into the fiscal/policy
+chapter — hence the Nov 2025 Chapter 3 workbook here). Nov 2025 chapters 4
+and 5 were inspected and dropped (receipts/spending detail, no package
+effects).
+
+Deferred, honestly: the March 2025 and March 2026 EFO policy-chapter
+workbooks (Spring events' package effects, if published in chart-data form)
+were not located in this pass; the March 2026 Annex B Table B.1 covers the
+March 2026 decisions in aggregate.

sources/obr-policy-effects/source.json

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+{
+  "id": "obr-policy-effects",
+  "name": "OBR \u2014 published economic and behavioural effects of policy (AS2023\u2013AB2025 packages, supply-side scorings, March 2026 decisions)",
+  "organization": "Office for Budget Responsibility",
+  "country": "UK",
+  "claim_class": "policy_effect",
+  "url": "https://obr.uk/efo/",
+  "data_urls": [
+    "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Chapter_2_charts_and_tables_November_2023.xlsx",
+    "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Chapter_2_charts_and_tables_March_2024.xlsx",
+    "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Chapter_2_charts_and_tables_October_2024.xlsx",
+    "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Chapter_3_charts_and_tables_November_2025.xlsx",
+    "https://obr.uk/docs/d055fbf02d5b3g6jq8l2/efo-march-2026-charts-and-tables-annex-tables.xlsx",
+    "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Briefing_paper_No.10_Accounting_for_the_supply-side_effects_of_policy_measures_charts_and_tables.xlsx"
+  ],
+  "published": "Per artifact, per fiscal event: 2023-11-22 (EFO Nov 2023), 2024-03-06 (EFO Mar 2024), 2024-10-30 (EFO Oct 2024), 2025-11-26 (EFO Nov 2025 and Briefing paper No.10), 2026-03-03 (EFO Mar 2026). Wayback snapshot timestamps are in raw/README.md and are NOT publication dates.",
+  "fetched": "2026-08-20",
+  "model": {
+    "name": "OBR policy scoring (demand multipliers + supply-side scorings)",
+    "open_source": false,
+    "method": "Package demand effects via OBR fiscal multipliers; supply-side effects per measure via labour-supply elasticities (NICs, childcare, welfare conditionality), capital deepening (investment incentives, public investment) and TFP channels, scored against the pre-measures forecast baseline of each EFO round. Briefing Paper No.10 (Nov 2025) documents the framework and re-states every scored measure.",
+    "method_basis": "EFO policy chapters/boxes AS2023-AB2025; OBR Briefing Paper No.10"
+  },
+  "baseline_key": "Per row, per round: each package/measure is scored against that EFO round's PRE-MEASURES forecast (obr_pre_measures_<event>), which is a distinct named world per round \u2014 never the null current_law, and never shared across rounds. March 2026 Table B.1 is explicit in its own title that its counterfactual is the November 2025 Budget forecast (obr_november_2025_budget_forecast). Briefing paper No.10 further distinguishes the counterfactual KIND: tax and welfare measures are scored against their legislated-parameter counterfactual, DEL and regulatory measures against the pre-existing activity/spending baseline; each row carries that kind plus a locator. The March 2025 WCA reversal scores against the WCA-adjusted world the November 2023 reforms created.",
+  "period": "Financial years 2023-24 to 2030-31 as published; briefing-paper supply-side impacts are single forecast-horizon numbers",
+  "metrics": [
+    "gdp_level_effect",
+    "cpi_inflation_effect",
+    "supply_side_impact",
+    "decisions_effect_on_borrowing"
+  ],
+  "geographies": "UK",
+  "coverage_note": "Package GDP effects: AS2023 (by channel), SB2024 (by channel), AB2024 (by component AND by measure), AB2025 (by component). AB2025 CPI effects by measure. Per-measure supply-side impacts (percent of potential GDP, by channel) for every measure OBR has scored, SB2023-SS2025, from Briefing Paper No.10 Table 2.1. March 2026 total/direct/indirect effects of Government decisions on borrowing (nested, GBP). Counterpart compute (OBR emulator, PE-UK LSR, OG-UK) is issue #55 steps 2-3, not this build. Source reconciliation: the adapter reads 272 numeric cells and emits 266 claims + 6 deliberately dropped cells \u2014 the March 2026 Table B.1 memo line 'total effect of Government decisions on current budget deficit', which scores a different fiscal aggregate (current budget, not PSNB) and is therefore not laundered into these four metrics. The drop is tallied by the build and asserted by tests; a value line that is neither emitted nor a declared drop raises.",
+  "diagnosis_upstream": "OBR scoring models are closed; divergence diagnoses classified as external-model issues become a comparison memo, not an upstream PR.",
+  "units": {
+    "gdp_level_effect": "percent_of_real_gdp \u2014 per cent deviation in the LEVEL of real GDP (or of an expenditure component)",
+    "cpi_inflation_effect": "percentage_points \u2014 effect on CPI inflation, in pp",
+    "supply_side_impact": "percent_of_potential_gdp \u2014 impact on POTENTIAL output, per cent of GDP",
+    "decisions_effect_on_borrowing": "gbp_nominal \u2014 raw pounds (published in GBP billion), sign as published (positive increases borrowing)"
+  }
+}