Skip to content

UK WAS stage: split private pension wealth out of corporate_wealth (#750) #755

New issue

Have a question about this project? Sign up for a free GitHub account to open an issue and contact its maintainers and the community.

Sign up for GitHub

By clicking “Sign up for GitHub”, you agree to our terms of service and privacy statement. We’ll occasionally send you account related emails.

Already on GitHub? Sign in to your account

Draft
MaxGhenis wants to merge 3 commits into
base: main
Choose a base branch
from
Draft

UK WAS stage: split private pension wealth out of corporate_wealth (#750) #755

Show file tree
Hide file tree
Changes from all commits
Commits
Show all changes
3 commits
Select commit Hold shift + click to select a range
c89d9cf
UK WAS stage: split private pension wealth out of corporate_wealth (#…
MaxGhenis Aug 23, 2026
a222355
WAS chain: one child seed per segment (review finding on #750)
MaxGhenis Aug 23, 2026
6883cee
Merge origin/main; re-cut the UK spec and gate-battery digests over t…
MaxGhenis Aug 23, 2026
File filter

Filter by extension

Filter by extension
Conversations
Failed to load comments.
Loading
Jump to
Jump to file
Failed to load files.
Loading
Diff view
Diff view
1 change: 1 addition & 0 deletions changelog.d/uk-pension-wealth-split-750.added.md
View file
Open in desktop
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
UK WAS wealth stage emits `private_pension_wealth` (WAS private pension wealth less the current-employment defined-benefit component) as its own household output and keeps `corporate_wealth` to the share-like holdings, so the means-tested capital tests stop counting pension rights; spec, support bounds, export allow-list, coverage manifest and gate-battery digests move in lockstep (#750, uk-data#452).
243 changes: 243 additions & 0 deletions experiments/452-uk-pension-wealth-split-coupling-receipt.json
View file
Open in desktop
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -0,0 +1,243 @@
{
"n_estimators": 30,
"truth": {
"P(owned_land_pos)": 0.0076383512194625365,
"P(owned_land_pos&property_wealth_pos)": 0.0076383512194625365,
"ratio_vs_indep(owned_land_pos,property_wealth_pos)": 1.558018820525906,
"P(property_wealth_pos|owned_land_pos)": 1.0,
"P(property_wealth_pos|not owned_land_pos)": 0.6390839669376266,
"P(owned_land_pos&pension_pos)": 0.007427542905194072,
"ratio_vs_indep(owned_land_pos,pension_pos)": 1.3157807591526687,
"P(pension_pos|owned_land_pos)": 0.9724013326683218,
"P(pension_pos|not owned_land_pos)": 0.7372336138234814,
"P(owned_land_pos&shares_excl_pos)": 0.003678065948690654,
"ratio_vs_indep(owned_land_pos,shares_excl_pos)": 2.7087590308557132,
"P(shares_excl_pos|owned_land_pos)": 0.4815261622585426,
"P(shares_excl_pos|not owned_land_pos)": 0.17542825051479743,
"P(owned_land_pos&isa_pos)": 0.0015102923671691392,
"ratio_vs_indep(owned_land_pos,isa_pos)": 1.5441250279671401,
"P(isa_pos|owned_land_pos)": 0.19772491782269852,
"P(isa_pos|not owned_land_pos)": 0.12751351150960955,
"P(property_wealth_pos)": 0.6418407703588922,
"P(property_wealth_pos&pension_pos)": 0.5384180116374168,
"ratio_vs_indep(property_wealth_pos,pension_pos)": 1.1350899158187926,
"P(pension_pos|property_wealth_pos)": 0.8388653954412315,
"P(pension_pos|not property_wealth_pos)": 0.5601192967136539,
"P(property_wealth_pos&shares_excl_pos)": 0.15801676395202507,
"ratio_vs_indep(property_wealth_pos,shares_excl_pos)": 1.3849252939692862,
"P(shares_excl_pos|property_wealth_pos)": 0.24619309219585458,
"P(shares_excl_pos|not property_wealth_pos)": 0.055141870670218765,
"P(property_wealth_pos&isa_pos)": 0.11703642780332342,
"ratio_vs_indep(property_wealth_pos,isa_pos)": 1.4240158258447393,
"P(isa_pos|property_wealth_pos)": 0.1823449572046993,
"P(isa_pos|not property_wealth_pos)": 0.030749963077466483,
"P(pension_pos)": 0.7390299074554981,
"P(pension_pos&shares_excl_pos)": 0.16338613792697204,
"ratio_vs_indep(pension_pos,shares_excl_pos)": 1.2436657586410924,
"P(shares_excl_pos|pension_pos)": 0.22108190247606535,
"P(shares_excl_pos|not pension_pos)": 0.05510285031153905,
"P(pension_pos&isa_pos)": 0.11449208905849834,
"ratio_vs_indep(pension_pos,isa_pos)": 1.2098583447414697,
"P(isa_pos|pension_pos)": 0.1549221322486095,
"P(isa_pos|not pension_pos)": 0.051951247363071155,
"P(shares_excl_pos)": 0.17776633387224022,
"P(shares_excl_pos&isa_pos)": 0.056780288630039935,
"ratio_vs_indep(shares_excl_pos,isa_pos)": 2.4944174642082237,
"P(isa_pos|shares_excl_pos)": 0.3194096845741761,
"P(isa_pos|not shares_excl_pos)": 0.08667794228888633,
"P(isa_pos)": 0.12804981089064132
},
"D1_pension_first:same_seed_per_segment(stage as-is)": {
"P(owned_land_pos)": 0.00196559740097869,
"P(owned_land_pos&property_wealth_pos)": 0.00196559740097869,
"ratio_vs_indep(owned_land_pos,property_wealth_pos)": 1.5176233931560639,
"P(property_wealth_pos|owned_land_pos)": 1.0,
"P(property_wealth_pos|not owned_land_pos)": 0.658253267242873,
"P(owned_land_pos&pension_pos)": 0.00196559740097869,
"ratio_vs_indep(owned_land_pos,pension_pos)": 1.3491400871721204,
"P(pension_pos|owned_land_pos)": 1.0,
"P(pension_pos|not owned_land_pos)": 0.7407031998150472,
"P(owned_land_pos&shares_excl_pos)": 0.000297902582448321,
"ratio_vs_indep(owned_land_pos,shares_excl_pos)": 0.8991488025158029,
"P(shares_excl_pos|owned_land_pos)": 0.15155829077714103,
"P(shares_excl_pos|not owned_land_pos)": 0.16859099779208564,
"P(owned_land_pos&isa_pos)": 0.00046631199335324164,
"ratio_vs_indep(owned_land_pos,isa_pos)": 1.8754150093940034,
"P(isa_pos|owned_land_pos)": 0.23723677754206451,
"P(isa_pos|not owned_land_pos)": 0.12628018644840672,
"P(property_wealth_pos)": 0.6589250037325733,
"P(property_wealth_pos&pension_pos)": 0.5571833986840257,
"ratio_vs_indep(property_wealth_pos,pension_pos)": 1.1408255185540233,
"P(pension_pos|property_wealth_pos)": 0.8455945601210789,
"P(pension_pos|not property_wealth_pos)": 0.5395572125235916,
"P(property_wealth_pos&shares_excl_pos)": 0.1646804701791328,
"ratio_vs_indep(property_wealth_pos,shares_excl_pos)": 1.482716027087137,
"P(shares_excl_pos|property_wealth_pos)": 0.24992293393979148,
"P(shares_excl_pos|not property_wealth_pos)": 0.011367142742040188,
"P(property_wealth_pos&isa_pos)": 0.12056520593331854,
"ratio_vs_indep(property_wealth_pos,isa_pos)": 1.4464431722099018,
"P(isa_pos|property_wealth_pos)": 0.18297257692508248,
"P(isa_pos|not property_wealth_pos)": 0.017395225587018327,
"P(pension_pos)": 0.7412128729315728,
"P(pension_pos&shares_excl_pos)": 0.1542624998744278,
"ratio_vs_indep(pension_pos,shares_excl_pos)": 1.2347222750335949,
"P(shares_excl_pos|pension_pos)": 0.20812172252797476,
"P(shares_excl_pos|not pension_pos)": 0.05523852223622324,
"P(pension_pos&isa_pos)": 0.1175458693344547,
"ratio_vs_indep(pension_pos,isa_pos)": 1.2536600604161776,
"P(isa_pos|pension_pos)": 0.1585858444006089,
"P(isa_pos|not pension_pos)": 0.034593734249617494,
"P(shares_excl_pos)": 0.16855751834744545,
"P(shares_excl_pos&isa_pos)": 0.05973213266404448,
"ratio_vs_indep(shares_excl_pos,isa_pos)": 2.801400898486773,
"P(isa_pos|shares_excl_pos)": 0.3543724020717925,
"P(isa_pos|not shares_excl_pos)": 0.0803015857918814,
"P(isa_pos)": 0.12649828243548186,
"seconds": 15.9
},
"D1_pension_first:fresh_seed_per_segment": {
"P(owned_land_pos)": 0.0018401306520696005,
"P(owned_land_pos&property_wealth_pos)": 0.0018401306520696005,
"ratio_vs_indep(owned_land_pos,property_wealth_pos)": 1.5227532991793198,
"P(property_wealth_pos|owned_land_pos)": 1.0,
"P(property_wealth_pos|not owned_land_pos)": 0.6560723216433186,
"P(owned_land_pos&pension_pos)": 0.001696498871896804,
"ratio_vs_indep(owned_land_pos,pension_pos)": 1.2352266494872681,
"P(pension_pos|owned_land_pos)": 0.9219447923378411,
"P(pension_pos|not owned_land_pos)": 0.7460533621869111,
"P(owned_land_pos&shares_excl_pos)": 0.0006115432048604415,
"ratio_vs_indep(owned_land_pos,shares_excl_pos)": 2.0396253523386902,
"P(shares_excl_pos|owned_land_pos)": 0.3323368393285754,
"P(shares_excl_pos|not owned_land_pos)": 0.16262785273829086,
"P(owned_land_pos&isa_pos)": 0.0003618214169878084,
"ratio_vs_indep(owned_land_pos,isa_pos)": 1.6727051580102021,
"P(isa_pos|owned_land_pos)": 0.19662811256410884,
"P(isa_pos|not owned_land_pos)": 0.1174051887018394,
"P(property_wealth_pos)": 0.6567051935063579,
"P(property_wealth_pos&pension_pos)": 0.5562533246078971,
"ratio_vs_indep(property_wealth_pos,pension_pos)": 1.134864225990029,
"P(pension_pos|property_wealth_pos)": 0.8470365852261403,
"P(pension_pos|not property_wealth_pos)": 0.5538204982853192,
"P(property_wealth_pos&shares_excl_pos)": 0.14756147269627434,
"ratio_vs_indep(property_wealth_pos,shares_excl_pos)": 1.379032325266063,
"P(shares_excl_pos|property_wealth_pos)": 0.22469971938001085,
"P(shares_excl_pos|not property_wealth_pos)": 0.04479726013698902,
"P(property_wealth_pos&isa_pos)": 0.10800472613127614,
"ratio_vs_indep(property_wealth_pos,isa_pos)": 1.3990914249140034,
"P(isa_pos|property_wealth_pos)": 0.1644645530433596,
"P(isa_pos|not property_wealth_pos)": 0.027807711973893777,
"P(pension_pos)": 0.7463770253989682,
"P(pension_pos&shares_excl_pos)": 0.15060678529527682,
"ratio_vs_indep(pension_pos,shares_excl_pos)": 1.2383921551979367,
"P(shares_excl_pos|pension_pos)": 0.20178379045733824,
"P(shares_excl_pos|not pension_pos)": 0.04862869450439896,
"P(pension_pos&isa_pos)": 0.10978857394433011,
"ratio_vs_indep(pension_pos,isa_pos)": 1.251332334729169,
"P(isa_pos|pension_pos)": 0.14709532877923695,
"P(isa_pos|not pension_pos)": 0.030606041508130954,
"P(shares_excl_pos)": 0.16294013944644734,
"P(shares_excl_pos&isa_pos)": 0.05474098400606996,
"ratio_vs_indep(shares_excl_pos,isa_pos)": 2.8579741866485104,
"P(isa_pos|shares_excl_pos)": 0.3359576356816694,
"P(isa_pos|not shares_excl_pos)": 0.07503643190437821,
"P(isa_pos)": 0.11755096923238494,
"seconds": 18.3
},
"D2_shares_first:same_seed_per_segment(stage as-is)": {
"P(owned_land_pos)": 0.00196559740097869,
"P(owned_land_pos&property_wealth_pos)": 0.00196559740097869,
"ratio_vs_indep(owned_land_pos,property_wealth_pos)": 1.5176233931560639,
"P(property_wealth_pos|owned_land_pos)": 1.0,
"P(property_wealth_pos|not owned_land_pos)": 0.658253267242873,
"P(owned_land_pos&pension_pos)": 0.0009746705564756995,
"ratio_vs_indep(owned_land_pos,pension_pos)": 0.668350101335664,
"P(pension_pos|owned_land_pos)": 0.49586479713007436,
"P(pension_pos|not owned_land_pos)": 0.7424083308422835,
"P(owned_land_pos&shares_excl_pos)": 0.0011692906218771662,
"ratio_vs_indep(owned_land_pos,shares_excl_pos)": 3.9137745375500335,
"P(shares_excl_pos|owned_land_pos)": 0.5948779853366539,
"P(shares_excl_pos|not owned_land_pos)": 0.15112373498894455,
"P(owned_land_pos&isa_pos)": 0.0003240965753945136,
"ratio_vs_indep(owned_land_pos,isa_pos)": 1.2361621336152444,
"P(isa_pos|owned_land_pos)": 0.1648845156353701,
"P(isa_pos|not owned_land_pos)": 0.1333221760100451,
"P(property_wealth_pos)": 0.6589250037325733,
"P(property_wealth_pos&pension_pos)": 0.5540640092367449,
"ratio_vs_indep(property_wealth_pos,pension_pos)": 1.1333516813226265,
"P(pension_pos|property_wealth_pos)": 0.8408605017235216,
"P(pension_pos|not property_wealth_pos)": 0.5507871240410442,
"P(property_wealth_pos&shares_excl_pos)": 0.14211059347518623,
"ratio_vs_indep(property_wealth_pos,shares_excl_pos)": 1.418921507399471,
"P(shares_excl_pos|property_wealth_pos)": 0.21567036107323412,
"P(shares_excl_pos|not property_wealth_pos)": 0.028983020810954458,
"P(property_wealth_pos&isa_pos)": 0.12863443635850574,
"ratio_vs_indep(property_wealth_pos,isa_pos)": 1.4635812039973677,
"P(isa_pos|property_wealth_pos)": 0.19521862978311325,
"P(isa_pos|not property_wealth_pos)": 0.013925906490523065,
"P(pension_pos)": 0.7419237255131907,
"P(pension_pos&shares_excl_pos)": 0.1380483861486046,
"ratio_vs_indep(pension_pos,shares_excl_pos)": 1.2241650628035117,
"P(shares_excl_pos|pension_pos)": 0.18606816496280146,
"P(shares_excl_pos|not pension_pos)": 0.05404445282400248,
"P(pension_pos&isa_pos)": 0.12074941170340445,
"ratio_vs_indep(pension_pos,isa_pos)": 1.2201727661123043,
"P(isa_pos|pension_pos)": 0.16275178640483795,
"P(isa_pos|not pension_pos)": 0.04895763155486333,
"P(shares_excl_pos)": 0.15199597719010127,
"P(shares_excl_pos&isa_pos)": 0.057176770336181564,
"ratio_vs_indep(shares_excl_pos,isa_pos)": 2.8202206600142823,
"P(isa_pos|shares_excl_pos)": 0.37617291847580026,
"P(isa_pos|not shares_excl_pos)": 0.08986684317143111,
"P(isa_pos)": 0.13338421486278143,
"seconds": 13.0
},
"D2_shares_first:fresh_seed_per_segment": {
"P(owned_land_pos)": 0.0018401306520696005,
"P(owned_land_pos&property_wealth_pos)": 0.0018401306520696005,
"ratio_vs_indep(owned_land_pos,property_wealth_pos)": 1.5227532991793198,
"P(property_wealth_pos|owned_land_pos)": 1.0,
"P(property_wealth_pos|not owned_land_pos)": 0.6560723216433186,
"P(owned_land_pos&pension_pos)": 0.0017951146194863706,
"ratio_vs_indep(owned_land_pos,pension_pos)": 1.2928305693909663,
"P(pension_pos|owned_land_pos)": 0.9755365019692487,
"P(pension_pos|not owned_land_pos)": 0.754166780661715,
"P(owned_land_pos&shares_excl_pos)": 0.0003855737593142302,
"ratio_vs_indep(owned_land_pos,shares_excl_pos)": 1.3848592092432241,
"P(shares_excl_pos|owned_land_pos)": 0.2095360777130549,
"P(shares_excl_pos|not owned_land_pos)": 0.1511976171585101,
"P(owned_land_pos&isa_pos)": 0.0005964200983227716,
"ratio_vs_indep(owned_land_pos,isa_pos)": 2.6343543430758505,
"P(isa_pos|owned_land_pos)": 0.32411834325566835,
"P(isa_pos|not owned_land_pos)": 0.12266450993249679,
"P(property_wealth_pos)": 0.6567051935063579,
"P(property_wealth_pos&pension_pos)": 0.5577197871103904,
"ratio_vs_indep(property_wealth_pos,pension_pos)": 1.1254953121501114,
"P(pension_pos|property_wealth_pos)": 0.8492696458399347,
"P(pension_pos|not property_wealth_pos)": 0.5734265099189274,
"P(property_wealth_pos&shares_excl_pos)": 0.13832545657158696,
"ratio_vs_indep(property_wealth_pos,shares_excl_pos)": 1.392125775963621,
"P(shares_excl_pos|property_wealth_pos)": 0.21063554535486972,
"P(shares_excl_pos|not property_wealth_pos)": 0.037808643564855374,
"P(property_wealth_pos&isa_pos)": 0.1123710211686045,
"ratio_vs_indep(property_wealth_pos,isa_pos)": 1.3907672559754307,
"P(isa_pos|property_wealth_pos)": 0.17111334321664168,
"P(isa_pos|not property_wealth_pos)": 0.031064233818418323,
"P(pension_pos)": 0.7545741298713331,
"P(pension_pos&shares_excl_pos)": 0.13810960521704171,
"ratio_vs_indep(pension_pos,shares_excl_pos)": 1.2096752234377992,
"P(shares_excl_pos|pension_pos)": 0.18302987042584087,
"P(shares_excl_pos|not pension_pos)": 0.053765164707418815,
"P(pension_pos&isa_pos)": 0.11466570181099152,
"ratio_vs_indep(pension_pos,isa_pos)": 1.2351002295512417,
"P(isa_pos|pension_pos)": 0.15196081772713815,
"P(isa_pos|not pension_pos)": 0.03410198562520064,
"P(shares_excl_pos)": 0.15130496754797107,
"P(shares_excl_pos&isa_pos)": 0.05358826345012221,
"ratio_vs_indep(shares_excl_pos,isa_pos)": 2.8786381557290697,
"P(isa_pos|shares_excl_pos)": 0.3541738537641344,
"P(isa_pos|not shares_excl_pos)": 0.08182791839302397,
"P(isa_pos)": 0.12303521130617168,
"seconds": 16.4
},
"elapsed_seconds": 64.2
}
Loading
Loading