Two-part ACS source-transfer calibration (battery pkg3): 13 checks greened

changelog.d/742-us-post-transfer-calibration-policy-spec.added.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Declare the US post-transfer calibration policy in the authored F0 imputation spec as a closed, typed exact variant of the regime-gated QRF model, projected as a stacked-authority component and held byte-equal to the runtime policy identity.

docs/evidence/spec-engine/us-f0-coverage.json

@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@
   "country": "us",
   "documentation_sha256": "aed5b95645a5c605671e374ed2a9d511c7fd9dc29c63760c32a205d9f2db9491",
   "field_usage": {
-    "authored_normative_field_count": 32160,
+    "authored_normative_field_count": 32252,
     "claim_count": 47,
     "claims": [
       {
@@ -186,8 +186,8 @@
         ],
         "mode": "legacy_behavior",
         "pointer_class": "all",
-        "pointer_count": 4,
-        "pointer_sha256": "93d4b493904c7318725feb66dc594bba4eef7cdd73fc983397572414d45ce6a8",
+        "pointer_count": 96,
+        "pointer_sha256": "e4d6b6b747fcec1c027e0f1c2d1905274c0426217a61383b02e75baadb93db4d",
         "rationale": null,
         "relative_sink_prefix": null,
         "source_prefix": "/authored/spec~1imputation.yaml/models",
@@ -740,20 +740,20 @@
         "verifier": "vintages"
       }
     ],
-    "configuration_field_count": 41379,
-    "consumed_field_count": 41379,
+    "configuration_field_count": 41471,
+    "consumed_field_count": 41471,
     "generation0_effect_counts": {
-      "legacy_behavior": 37717,
+      "legacy_behavior": 37809,
       "no_generation0_effect": 3662
     },
     "mode_counts": {
       "compiler_semantic": 27661,
       "front_end_validation": 346,
       "identity_only": 128,
-      "legacy_behavior": 13244
+      "legacy_behavior": 13336
     },
     "multiple_primary_use_field_count": 0,
-    "pointer_inventory_sha256": "b9d2932e0ae5efb6637be7b5d90e33b2e159ffb807ee50ff36ee2b51296cfdc4",
+    "pointer_inventory_sha256": "2daa3ee07ac2e5d5ab731348edbca8c7a58438e9819d1ac3707070c7500a1c63",
     "resolved_binding_field_count": 9219,
     "unused_field_count": 0
   },
@@ -765,7 +765,7 @@
     "country": "us",
     "counts": {
       "adapter_surfaces": 13,
-      "authority_components": 8,
+      "authority_components": 9,
       "early_families": 13,
       "early_targets": 48,
       "itemization_batches": 5,
@@ -1624,13 +1624,13 @@
           "compiler_ir.node_slices"
         ],
         "expected": {
-          "map_sha256": "96140220b6b248c1b3a3567dc0c97df6c08176e6745d8dd55786053f26c43a32",
-          "protocol_sha256": "6dade07562ec29c56d96ab8e299a4416c679f1c44b18b228e0ef10f21bd6f6ec"
+          "map_sha256": "cf5037426fda1c258c40ae8e6cc6381e27bf094eb1063e6dd40b901e1554512a",
+          "protocol_sha256": "5d24161d335ac39d63d904aab4ddd1157be5601a62cdd9523797e7466e784535"
         },
         "failures": [],
         "observed": {
-          "map_sha256": "96140220b6b248c1b3a3567dc0c97df6c08176e6745d8dd55786053f26c43a32",
-          "protocol_sha256": "6dade07562ec29c56d96ab8e299a4416c679f1c44b18b228e0ef10f21bd6f6ec"
+          "map_sha256": "cf5037426fda1c258c40ae8e6cc6381e27bf094eb1063e6dd40b901e1554512a",
+          "protocol_sha256": "5d24161d335ac39d63d904aab4ddd1157be5601a62cdd9523797e7466e784535"
         },
         "status": "covered"
       },
@@ -1645,7 +1645,7 @@
           "compiler_ir.seed_stream_map"
         ],
         "expected": {
-          "implementation_sha256": "6dade07562ec29c56d96ab8e299a4416c679f1c44b18b228e0ef10f21bd6f6ec",
+          "implementation_sha256": "5d24161d335ac39d63d904aab4ddd1157be5601a62cdd9523797e7466e784535",
           "protocol": "legacy-v1",
           "streams": [
             "build_model",
@@ -1666,7 +1666,7 @@
         },
         "failures": [],
         "observed": {
-          "implementation_sha256": "6dade07562ec29c56d96ab8e299a4416c679f1c44b18b228e0ef10f21bd6f6ec",
+          "implementation_sha256": "5d24161d335ac39d63d904aab4ddd1157be5601a62cdd9523797e7466e784535",
           "protocol": "legacy-v1",
           "streams": [
             "build_model",
@@ -1776,7 +1776,8 @@
             "joint_metric_registry",
             "support_profile",
             "puf_capital_gains_tail_support_contract",
-            "late_producer_schedule"
+            "late_producer_schedule",
+            "post_transfer_calibration"
           ]
         },
         "failures": [],
@@ -1789,7 +1790,8 @@
             "joint_metric_registry",
             "support_profile",
             "puf_capital_gains_tail_support_contract",
-            "late_producer_schedule"
+            "late_producer_schedule",
+            "post_transfer_calibration"
           ]
         },
         "status": "covered"
@@ -1806,11 +1808,11 @@
           "legacy_adapter.stacked_checkpoint_static_components"
         ],
         "expected": {
-          "sha256": "f0b676f6508dbf6bb2b787c42e6b85331bacc57c6649ac7ad15fdaa5884a1b2d"
+          "sha256": "24ae81f408e8d608db1956463206fe9842b5214ca813113d3e5366fc66ca3cde"
         },
         "failures": [],
         "observed": {
-          "sha256": "f0b676f6508dbf6bb2b787c42e6b85331bacc57c6649ac7ad15fdaa5884a1b2d"
+          "sha256": "24ae81f408e8d608db1956463206fe9842b5214ca813113d3e5366fc66ca3cde"
         },
         "status": "covered"
       },
@@ -1852,7 +1854,7 @@
             "alpha",
             "zeta"
           ],
-          "sha256": "2972db18e0f69ac4df4079916355a1bcd9ec5c12f3e19d5650fc47b5a8a0e3e8"
+          "sha256": "09cb19f84333a5eeabc4b5adeeef0632050bc0f7810a4ba14a6727c11d681377"
         },
         "failures": [],
         "observed": {
@@ -1875,7 +1877,7 @@
             "alpha",
             "zeta"
           ],
-          "sha256": "2972db18e0f69ac4df4079916355a1bcd9ec5c12f3e19d5650fc47b5a8a0e3e8"
+          "sha256": "09cb19f84333a5eeabc4b5adeeef0632050bc0f7810a4ba14a6727c11d681377"
         },
         "status": "covered"
       },
@@ -2438,7 +2440,7 @@
       "country": "us",
       "schema_id": "country_spec",
       "schema_version": 1,
-      "spec_sha256": "586491f0866180f7a8f1e01530af5c2a3f2ebc18ad289ac1a3385d1897e79626"
+      "spec_sha256": "d3de6760727cfcb6800209670d37e02b373d8dcda19f8ad054aa9d410e0efbb0"
     }
   },
   "report_schema_version": 3,
@@ -2448,7 +2450,7 @@
     "country": "us",
     "schema_id": "country_spec",
     "schema_version": 1,
-    "spec_sha256": "586491f0866180f7a8f1e01530af5c2a3f2ebc18ad289ac1a3385d1897e79626"
+    "spec_sha256": "d3de6760727cfcb6800209670d37e02b373d8dcda19f8ad054aa9d410e0efbb0"
   },
   "status": "pass"
 }

experiments/battery_burndown_pkg3_evidence.md

@@ -0,0 +1,29 @@
+# pkg3 1% verify build: battery failure-line diff vs baseline
+
+Same code path, sample fraction 0.01 seed 578, checkpoint-resumed;
+physical (mirror-deduplicated) failure lines from pool.gates.json.
+
+- baseline1pct: **127** failures
+- pkg3:         **114** failures
+- greened: **15**, introduced: **2**
+
+## Greened by pkg3
+- person/adult_care/pre_subsidy_care_expenses[clone_0]/positive: weighted positive-leg incidence ratio 0.561425 is outside [0.8, 1.25] (asec=0.000768207, acs=0.000431291).
+- person/model_required_numeric/unemployment_compensation[clone_0]/positive: conditional-quantile envelope distance 0.352941 exceeds 0.25.
+- person/simulated_output/ssi[clone_0]/positive: weighted positive-leg incidence ratio 1.34148 is outside [0.8, 1.25] (asec=0.0203726, acs=0.0273295).
+- person/source_operator_child_support/child_support_expense[clone_0]/positive: conditional-quantile envelope distance 0.953846 exceeds 0.25.
+- person/source_operator_child_support/child_support_expense[clone_0]/positive: weighted positive-leg incidence ratio 0.171281 is outside [0.8, 1.25] (asec=0.00523716, acs=0.000897025).
+- person/source_operator_child_support/child_support_received[clone_0]/positive: conditional-quantile envelope distance 1 exceeds 0.25.
+- person/source_operator_child_support/child_support_received[clone_0]/positive: weighted positive-leg incidence ratio 0.242882 is outside [0.8, 1.25] (asec=0.00928306, acs=0.00225469).
+- person/source_operator_disability_benefits/disability_benefits[clone_0]/positive: conditional-quantile envelope distance 1.37353 exceeds 0.25.
+- person/source_operator_prior_year_income/self_employment_income_last_year[clone_0]/positive: conditional-quantile envelope distance 0.834721 exceeds 0.25.
+- person/source_operator_prior_year_income/self_employment_income_last_year[clone_0]/positive: weighted positive-leg incidence ratio 1.37675 is outside [0.8, 1.25] (asec=0.0249193, acs=0.0343077).
+- person/source_operator_weeks_unemployed/weeks_unemployed[clone_0]/positive: conditional-quantile envelope distance 0.736842 exceeds 0.25.
+- person/source_operator_weeks_unemployed/weeks_unemployed[clone_0]/positive: weighted positive-leg incidence ratio 0.0253844 is outside [0.8, 1.25] (asec=0.0341695, acs=0.000867374).
+- person/source_operator_workers_compensation/workers_compensation[clone_0]/positive: weighted positive-leg incidence ratio 0.0476147 is outside [0.8, 1.25] (asec=0.00326463, acs=0.000155444).
+- spm_unit/source_operator_energy_subsidy/spm_unit_energy_subsidy[clone_0]/positive: conditional-quantile envelope distance 0.666667 exceeds 0.25.
+- spm_unit/source_operator_energy_subsidy/spm_unit_energy_subsidy[clone_0]/positive: weighted positive-leg incidence ratio 0.240477 is outside [0.8, 1.25] (asec=0.033554, acs=0.00806897).
+
+## Present only under pkg3 (same checks, ratios moved toward band, still red)
+- person/simulated_output/ssi[clone_0]/positive: weighted positive-leg incidence ratio 1.33548 is outside [0.8, 1.25] (asec=0.0203726, acs=0.0272073).
+- person/source_operator_weeks_unemployed/weeks_unemployed[clone_0]/positive: weighted positive-leg incidence ratio 0.0313711 is outside [0.8, 1.25] (asec=0.0341695, acs=0.00107194).

packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/spec_engine/field_usage.py

@@ -26,9 +26,9 @@
 )
 from .schemas import load_schema_registry
 
-EXPECTED_AUTHORED_FIELD_COUNT = 32_160
+EXPECTED_AUTHORED_FIELD_COUNT = 32_252
 EXPECTED_RESOLVED_BINDING_FIELD_COUNT = 9_219
-EXPECTED_CONFIGURATION_FIELD_COUNT = 41_379
+EXPECTED_CONFIGURATION_FIELD_COUNT = 41_471
 
 
 class FieldUsageError(AssertionError):
@@ -357,8 +357,8 @@ def _path_inventory(rows: Sequence[tuple[str, object]]) -> tuple[int, str]:
         "deb4acc6f962df9eb458e4206e1a75a3fe596a9a9cdb9c9163e75fd8d4f7b77a",
     ),
     "imputation_models": (
-        4,
-        "93d4b493904c7318725feb66dc594bba4eef7cdd73fc983397572414d45ce6a8",
+        96,
+        "e4d6b6b747fcec1c027e0f1c2d1905274c0426217a61383b02e75baadb93db4d",
     ),
     "imputation_predictor_blocks": (
         62,

packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/spec_engine/inventory_coverage.py

@@ -47,6 +47,7 @@
     "support_profile",
     "puf_capital_gains_tail_support_contract",
     "late_producer_schedule",
+    "post_transfer_calibration",
 )
 
 EXPECTED_CHECKPOINT_TOP_LEVEL = frozenset(
@@ -330,18 +331,18 @@
 EXPECTED_HASHES = {
     "acs_group_predictors": "a927bb7ecf3e84f54c93583ab79318654514ac546aefafba67da5285615fbd60",
     "acs_person_predictors": "878c788a6f037d7aca12b3586ea034eff04f3034ffa11935a736493042551f25",
-    "authority": "f0b676f6508dbf6bb2b787c42e6b85331bacc57c6649ac7ad15fdaa5884a1b2d",
+    "authority": "24ae81f408e8d608db1956463206fe9842b5214ca813113d3e5366fc66ca3cde",
     "early_families": "e26a90e2b5c16e23e7c17424d1c2e4ab18ed66b1d0e129248e87c0bab9b3fd5d",
-    "full_checkpoint": "2972db18e0f69ac4df4079916355a1bcd9ec5c12f3e19d5650fc47b5a8a0e3e8",
+    "full_checkpoint": "09cb19f84333a5eeabc4b5adeeef0632050bc0f7810a4ba14a6727c11d681377",
     "gap_fill_schedule": "96aefe2853de91ae95f50bc2ccc2c1dd94802c27f21c643981152bbcb13c4e10",
     "graph_nodes": "a83363de26cad0144b5a98b36b4bca49542e37a7b9fee3d7e541f692deeff864",
     "late_families": "a160432fc12a85df20ba7fd6687673b3c31786df7a983e2477604ab923b26d18",
     "late_resource_semantics": "9206aa072ce360ef87dc7d832351fcae2e0d1da71abcacc5af0d43ef88582dee",
     "late_schedule": "b1d00afea69b2009d862ca73fff1b63ce56628a8a0790be49918e4bbbecc9fc5",
     "ownership": "5f64f0aac49e2313177564f71876bffc8c81b3ded4df701e70930e60e9c98356",
     "primary_tuples": "987b501c695e31f45521c4a178528f75ab3df22c09bc407b182213b2de99ee57",
-    "seed_map": "96140220b6b248c1b3a3567dc0c97df6c08176e6745d8dd55786053f26c43a32",
-    "seed_protocol": "6dade07562ec29c56d96ab8e299a4416c679f1c44b18b228e0ef10f21bd6f6ec",
+    "seed_map": "cf5037426fda1c258c40ae8e6cc6381e27bf094eb1063e6dd40b901e1554512a",
+    "seed_protocol": "5d24161d335ac39d63d904aab4ddd1157be5601a62cdd9523797e7466e784535",
     "source_manifest": "16f64b9cf3aea326737accca64c742a1edaa30a3a499432efd7567942f38a6c7",
     "take_up": "495dc6ed195eae372a6ba098c6fb894323638a4a7dce1b4fe7efaaf6beb69446",
     "tail": "ac92829c88a1a4fb6460d61190918d5d99c6c377fc8dd8f62f02b332d09bf59c",
@@ -396,7 +397,7 @@
 
 EXPECTED_INVENTORY_COUNTS: Mapping[str, int] = {
     "adapter_surfaces": 13,
-    "authority_components": 8,
+    "authority_components": 9,
     "early_families": 13,
     "early_targets": 48,
     "itemization_batches": 5,
@@ -470,8 +471,7 @@ def _without_operational_bindings(value: object) -> object:
         return {
             key: _without_operational_bindings(item)
             for key, item in value.items()
-            if key != "worker_execution"
-            and not (drop_self_hash and key == "sha256")
+            if key != "worker_execution" and not (drop_self_hash and key == "sha256")
         }
     if isinstance(value, list):
         return [_without_operational_bindings(item) for item in value]
@@ -1520,9 +1520,9 @@ def add(
             full_resource_semantics.get("producers"),
             "full checkpoint resource-semantics producers",
         )
-        if _mapping(
-            value, "full checkpoint resource-semantics producer"
-        ).get("producer")
+        if _mapping(value, "full checkpoint resource-semantics producer").get(
+            "producer"
+        )
         == "primary_puf_qrf"
     ]
     primary_resource_row = (
@@ -1558,9 +1558,7 @@ def add(
                 "alpha": {"sha256": "a" * 64, "size_bytes": 17},
                 "zeta": {"sha256": "b" * 64, "size_bytes": 23},
             },
-            "full checkpoint sampling vector differs": full_checkpoint.get(
-                "sampling"
-            )
+            "full checkpoint sampling vector differs": full_checkpoint.get("sampling")
             == {
                 "sample_fraction": 0.25,
                 "fraction_token": "f025",
@@ -1592,9 +1590,7 @@ def add(
         observed={
             "sha256": _operational_free_sha256(full_checkpoint),
             "field_names": sorted(full_checkpoint),
-            "input_roles": list(
-                _mapping(full_checkpoint["inputs"], "full inputs")
-            ),
+            "input_roles": list(_mapping(full_checkpoint["inputs"], "full inputs")),
             "fraction_token": _mapping(
                 full_checkpoint["sampling"], "full sampling"
             ).get("fraction_token"),
@@ -1963,22 +1959,27 @@ def assert_inventory_coverage_complete(report: Mapping[str, object]) -> None:
         ):
             failures.append("inventory spec_binding contract differs")
         spec_sha256 = binding.get("spec_sha256")
-        if not isinstance(spec_sha256, str) or len(spec_sha256) != 64 or any(
-            character not in "0123456789abcdef" for character in spec_sha256
+        if (
+            not isinstance(spec_sha256, str)
+            or len(spec_sha256) != 64
+            or any(character not in "0123456789abcdef" for character in spec_sha256)
         ):
             failures.append("inventory spec_binding SHA-256 is invalid")
 
     compiler_abi = report.get("compiler_ir_abi")
     if not isinstance(compiler_abi, Mapping):
         failures.append("inventory compiler_ir_abi is missing")
     else:
-        if set(compiler_abi) != {"version", "sha256"} or compiler_abi.get(
-            "version"
-        ) != 1:
+        if (
+            set(compiler_abi) != {"version", "sha256"}
+            or compiler_abi.get("version") != 1
+        ):
             failures.append("inventory compiler IR ABI contract differs")
         abi_sha256 = compiler_abi.get("sha256")
-        if not isinstance(abi_sha256, str) or len(abi_sha256) != 64 or any(
-            character not in "0123456789abcdef" for character in abi_sha256
+        if (
+            not isinstance(abi_sha256, str)
+            or len(abi_sha256) != 64
+            or any(character not in "0123456789abcdef" for character in abi_sha256)
         ):
             failures.append("inventory compiler IR ABI SHA-256 is invalid")
 
@@ -2028,8 +2029,7 @@ def assert_inventory_coverage_complete(report: Mapping[str, object]) -> None:
             not isinstance(homes, list)
             or not homes
             or any(
-                not isinstance(home, str) or not home.startswith("/")
-                for home in homes
+                not isinstance(home, str) or not home.startswith("/") for home in homes
             )
         ):
             failures.append(f"{name}: bundle_homes are malformed or empty")
@@ -2059,8 +2059,7 @@ def assert_inventory_coverage_complete(report: Mapping[str, object]) -> None:
     recomputed_covered = recomputed_required - len(recomputed_missing)
     if recomputed_missing:
         failures.append(
-            "inventory has missing required items: "
-            + ", ".join(recomputed_missing)
+            "inventory has missing required items: " + ", ".join(recomputed_missing)
         )
     expected_summaries = {
         "required_item_count": recomputed_required,