Forecast-ledger entry 21: scope bifurcation (milestone A unmoved; headline follows the Q5-gated successor authority) - #407
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…g (supersedes 20) Registers the 2026-08-20 material evidence: limb-IV triple-verified 46-collision census dispositioned (all lawfully unresolved_multiple), the v3 reconstruction green at HEAD with the span/collapse fix-5 gap, the Q5 coverage audit (COMPLETABLE-LARGE, >=4,300 lane-hours over the 257-document denominator), and the ceremony lane's shadow-route ruling from the enacted three-union law. Milestone A (revision-22 ratification, framework + exact shadows) is not gated by Q5: p50 2026-09-08 / p80 2026-09-22. Milestone B (R04-normal successor authority + publication, the resolution event) absorbs the Q5 program: headline p50 2026-10-14 / p80 2026-12-02 (+20/+34 days vs entry 20). Engine-assumptions clause attached per the program board. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Registers forecast-ledger entry 21, superseding entry 20 per ledger rule 5 (material evidence), append-only.
Evidence registered (2026-08-20): limb-IV 46-collision census triple-verified and dispositioned (all lawfully
unresolved_multiple, C68 untouched; §34.5.1's pre-R04 obligation dischargeable); the v3/§19.3.2 reconstruction green at HEAD (17,313 evidence / 21,971 candidate-set rows) hash-stable up to the unenacted span/collapse convention (fix-5 item 1); Q5 coverage audit COMPLETABLE-LARGE (0/257 documents complete; ≥4,300 lane-hours); the shadow-route ruling from the enacted three-union law (revision-22 ratification NOT Q5-gated; the successor authority IS).Bifurcation: milestone A (revision-22 ratification, framework + exact shadows) p50 2026-09-08 / p80 2026-09-22. Milestone B (R04-normal successor authority + publication — the claim's resolution event) p50 2026-10-14 / p80 2026-12-02; the headline follows B (+20/+34 days vs entry 20). Engine-assumptions clause attached verbatim from the program board.
Validated: tests/test_forecast_ledger.py 5/5; ruff clean; append-only diff (entry 20 gains only status + superseded_by).
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