Source the numbers that had no artifact, and put the units back

economy/topics.py

@@ -141,6 +141,32 @@ def stored(value: float) -> str:
     return f"{value:,}"
 
 
+def display(series: dict, value: float) -> str:
+    """The reading a person would say out loud.
+
+    stored() is right for the method note and for anything asserting fidelity
+    to the snapshot, but it is wrong for the number a reader meets first: the
+    restructure made the public-finances headline read "-15,989.0" where the
+    page it replaced said "£16.0bn borrowed", and dropped "£77.1bn" and
+    "£749/week" from the site entirely. Scale and unit here; exact stored
+    value stays one line below and in the method note.
+    """
+    units = series["units"].lower()
+    if "£m" in units or "\u00a3m" in units:
+        billions = abs(value) / 1000
+        borrowed = " borrowed" if value < 0 and "borrowing" in series["title"].lower() else ""
+        return f"\u00a3{billions:,.1f}bn{borrowed}"
+    if "per week" in units:
+        return f"\u00a3{value:,.0f}/week"
+    if "thousand" in units:
+        return f"{value:,.0f}k"
+    if "percent" in units or units.startswith("%"):
+        # Keep the publisher's precision: a stored 5.0 is 5.0%, not 5%. The
+        # trailing zero is information about how the figure was published.
+        return f"{stored(value)}%"
+    return stored(value)
+
+
 def listed(items: list[str]) -> str:
     """Join a registry list the way a sentence needs it."""
     if len(items) < 2:
@@ -265,8 +291,8 @@ def stat_card(series: dict) -> str:
     now = latest(series)
     return f"""        <article class="economy-stat">
           <p class="economy-stat-label mono">{esc(label(series).upper())}</p>
-          <p class="economy-stat-value">{esc(stored(now["value"]))}{suffix(series)}</p>
-          <p class="economy-stat-change">{esc(series["units"])}</p>
+          <p class="economy-stat-value">{esc(display(series, now["value"]))}</p>
+          <p class="economy-stat-change">stored as {esc(stored(now["value"]))} &middot; {esc(series["units"])}</p>
           <dl>
             <div><dt>Observation</dt><dd>{esc(now["period"])}</dd></div>
             <div><dt>Vintage</dt><dd>{esc(series["vintage"])}</dd></div>

economy/topics/growth/index.html

@@ -80,8 +80,8 @@ <h2>The numbers, as the snapshot stores them.</h2>
     <div class="economy-grid">
         <article class="economy-stat">
           <p class="economy-stat-label mono">REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT</p>
-          <p class="economy-stat-value">709,598.0</p>
-          <p class="economy-stat-change">£m, chained volume measure</p>
+          <p class="economy-stat-value">£709.6bn</p>
+          <p class="economy-stat-change">stored as 709,598.0 &middot; £m, chained volume measure</p>
           <dl>
             <div><dt>Observation</dt><dd>2026Q1</dd></div>
             <div><dt>Vintage</dt><dd>2026-07-26</dd></div>
@@ -91,7 +91,7 @@ <h2>The numbers, as the snapshot stores them.</h2>
         <article class="economy-stat">
           <p class="economy-stat-label mono">MONTHLY GROSS VALUE ADDED INDEX</p>
           <p class="economy-stat-value">103.2</p>
-          <p class="economy-stat-change">index, chained volume measure, seasonally adjusted</p>
+          <p class="economy-stat-change">stored as 103.2 &middot; index, chained volume measure, seasonally adjusted</p>
           <dl>
             <div><dt>Observation</dt><dd>2026-05</dd></div>
             <div><dt>Vintage</dt><dd>2026-07-26</dd></div>
@@ -100,8 +100,8 @@ <h2>The numbers, as the snapshot stores them.</h2>
         </article>
         <article class="economy-stat">
           <p class="economy-stat-label mono">REAL BUSINESS INVESTMENT</p>
-          <p class="economy-stat-value">77,134.0</p>
-          <p class="economy-stat-change">£m, chained volume measure, seasonally adjusted</p>
+          <p class="economy-stat-value">£77.1bn</p>
+          <p class="economy-stat-change">stored as 77,134.0 &middot; £m, chained volume measure, seasonally adjusted</p>
           <dl>
             <div><dt>Observation</dt><dd>2026Q1</dd></div>
             <div><dt>Vintage</dt><dd>2026-07-26</dd></div>

economy/topics/inflation/index.html

@@ -81,7 +81,7 @@ <h2>The numbers, as the snapshot stores them.</h2>
         <article class="economy-stat">
           <p class="economy-stat-label mono">CPI INFLATION</p>
           <p class="economy-stat-value">2.8%</p>
-          <p class="economy-stat-change">percent, year-on-year</p>
+          <p class="economy-stat-change">stored as 2.8 &middot; percent, year-on-year</p>
           <dl>
             <div><dt>Observation</dt><dd>2026Q2</dd></div>
             <div><dt>Vintage</dt><dd>2026-07-26</dd></div>
@@ -91,7 +91,7 @@ <h2>The numbers, as the snapshot stores them.</h2>
         <article class="economy-stat">
           <p class="economy-stat-label mono">CORE CPI INFLATION</p>
           <p class="economy-stat-value">2.6%</p>
-          <p class="economy-stat-change">percent, year-on-year</p>
+          <p class="economy-stat-change">stored as 2.6 &middot; percent, year-on-year</p>
           <dl>
             <div><dt>Observation</dt><dd>2026-06</dd></div>
             <div><dt>Vintage</dt><dd>2026-07-26</dd></div>

economy/topics/jobs/index.html

@@ -81,7 +81,7 @@ <h2>The numbers, as the snapshot stores them.</h2>
         <article class="economy-stat">
           <p class="economy-stat-label mono">UNEMPLOYMENT RATE</p>
           <p class="economy-stat-value">5.0%</p>
-          <p class="economy-stat-change">percent</p>
+          <p class="economy-stat-change">stored as 5.0 &middot; percent</p>
           <dl>
             <div><dt>Observation</dt><dd>2026Q1</dd></div>
             <div><dt>Vintage</dt><dd>2026-07-26</dd></div>
@@ -90,8 +90,8 @@ <h2>The numbers, as the snapshot stores them.</h2>
         </article>
         <article class="economy-stat">
           <p class="economy-stat-label mono">UK VACANCIES</p>
-          <p class="economy-stat-value">712.0</p>
-          <p class="economy-stat-change">thousands, seasonally adjusted three-month average</p>
+          <p class="economy-stat-value">712k</p>
+          <p class="economy-stat-change">stored as 712.0 &middot; thousands, seasonally adjusted three-month average</p>
           <dl>
             <div><dt>Observation</dt><dd>2026-05</dd></div>
             <div><dt>Vintage</dt><dd>2026-07-26</dd></div>
@@ -100,8 +100,8 @@ <h2>The numbers, as the snapshot stores them.</h2>
         </article>
         <article class="economy-stat">
           <p class="economy-stat-label mono">AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS</p>
-          <p class="economy-stat-value">749.0</p>
-          <p class="economy-stat-change">£ per week, seasonally adjusted</p>
+          <p class="economy-stat-value">£749/week</p>
+          <p class="economy-stat-change">stored as 749.0 &middot; £ per week, seasonally adjusted</p>
           <dl>
             <div><dt>Observation</dt><dd>2026-05</dd></div>
             <div><dt>Vintage</dt><dd>2026-07-26</dd></div>

economy/topics/public-finances/index.html

@@ -80,8 +80,8 @@ <h2>The numbers, as the snapshot stores them.</h2>
     <div class="economy-grid">
         <article class="economy-stat">
           <p class="economy-stat-label mono">PUBLIC-SECTOR NET BORROWING</p>
-          <p class="economy-stat-value">-15,989.0</p>
-          <p class="economy-stat-change">£m, current prices, not seasonally adjusted</p>
+          <p class="economy-stat-value">£16.0bn borrowed</p>
+          <p class="economy-stat-change">stored as -15,989.0 &middot; £m, current prices, not seasonally adjusted</p>
           <dl>
             <div><dt>Observation</dt><dd>2026-06</dd></div>
             <div><dt>Vintage</dt><dd>2026-07-26</dd></div>
@@ -91,7 +91,7 @@ <h2>The numbers, as the snapshot stores them.</h2>
         <article class="economy-stat">
           <p class="economy-stat-label mono">PUBLIC-SECTOR NET DEBT</p>
           <p class="economy-stat-value">94.9%</p>
-          <p class="economy-stat-change">percent of GDP, not seasonally adjusted</p>
+          <p class="economy-stat-change">stored as 94.9 &middot; percent of GDP, not seasonally adjusted</p>
           <dl>
             <div><dt>Observation</dt><dd>2026-06</dd></div>
             <div><dt>Vintage</dt><dd>2026-07-26</dd></div>

economy/topics/rates/index.html

@@ -81,7 +81,7 @@ <h2>The numbers, as the snapshot stores them.</h2>
         <article class="economy-stat">
           <p class="economy-stat-label mono">OFFICIAL BANK RATE</p>
           <p class="economy-stat-value">3.75%</p>
-          <p class="economy-stat-change">percent</p>
+          <p class="economy-stat-change">stored as 3.75 &middot; percent</p>
           <dl>
             <div><dt>Observation</dt><dd>2026-08-10</dd></div>
             <div><dt>Vintage</dt><dd>2026-08-12</dd></div>
@@ -91,7 +91,7 @@ <h2>The numbers, as the snapshot stores them.</h2>
         <article class="economy-stat">
           <p class="economy-stat-label mono">UK NOMINAL PAR YIELD, 5 YEAR</p>
           <p class="economy-stat-value">4.4356%</p>
-          <p class="economy-stat-change">percent</p>
+          <p class="economy-stat-change">stored as 4.4356 &middot; percent</p>
           <dl>
             <div><dt>Observation</dt><dd>2026-08-07</dd></div>
             <div><dt>Vintage</dt><dd>2026-08-12</dd></div>
@@ -101,7 +101,7 @@ <h2>The numbers, as the snapshot stores them.</h2>
         <article class="economy-stat">
           <p class="economy-stat-label mono">UK NOMINAL PAR YIELD, 10 YEAR</p>
           <p class="economy-stat-value">4.9118%</p>
-          <p class="economy-stat-change">percent</p>
+          <p class="economy-stat-change">stored as 4.9118 &middot; percent</p>
           <dl>
             <div><dt>Observation</dt><dd>2026-08-07</dd></div>
             <div><dt>Vintage</dt><dd>2026-08-12</dd></div>
@@ -111,7 +111,7 @@ <h2>The numbers, as the snapshot stores them.</h2>
         <article class="economy-stat">
           <p class="economy-stat-label mono">UK NOMINAL PAR YIELD, 20 YEAR</p>
           <p class="economy-stat-value">5.4311%</p>
-          <p class="economy-stat-change">percent</p>
+          <p class="economy-stat-change">stored as 5.4311 &middot; percent</p>
           <dl>
             <div><dt>Observation</dt><dd>2026-08-07</dd></div>
             <div><dt>Vintage</dt><dd>2026-08-12</dd></div>

obr/validation/index.html

@@ -121,7 +121,7 @@ <h2>Excellent anchored. Weak free-running. Both published.</h2>
           <tr>
             <th scope="row"><strong>Held add-factors</strong></th>
             <td>Add-factors fitted 2024Q1–2025Q4, held flat, projected to 2027Q4. Scored over 2026Q1–2027Q4 on the March 2026 baseline (caveats in the notes below).</td>
-            <td>GDP 0.37%, consumption 0.33%; 6 of 8 computed variables within band. (The working paper's November-2025-vintage scorecard, over its own longer window, reports GDP 2.2% and consumption 3.6%.)</td>
+            <td>GDP 0.37%, consumption 0.33%; 6 of 8 computed variables within band. (The working paper reports GDP 2.2% and consumption 3.6% for the same 2026Q1&ndash;2027Q4 window &mdash; the difference is the EFO vintage it was anchored to, November 2025 against March 2026 here, not the window.)</td>
           </tr>
           <tr>
             <th scope="row"><strong>Free-running</strong></th>

papers/boe-svar/figures/latest_shocks.json

@@ -0,0 +1,60 @@
+{
+  "quarter": "2026Q1",
+  "provenance": {
+    "model_id": "boe-svar",
+    "package": "boe_var",
+    "package_version": "0.1.0",
+    "model_version": "0.1.0",
+    "adapter_version": "0.2.0",
+    "source_url": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/boe-var-model",
+    "source_revision": "3ab56259224c20a0bf65caa523e6e7440e56b37e",
+    "data_vintage": "conditioned through 2026Q1",
+    "baseline_vintage": "identified structural shocks",
+    "baseline": "identified structural shocks",
+    "estimation_sample": "1992Q1-2025Q1",
+    "run_at": "2026-08-12T13:41:15.541729+00:00",
+    "reproducibility": "Check out the recorded source URL at the recorded source revision, install the recorded adapter version, and rerun the serialized request against the recorded baseline and data vintage."
+  },
+  "draws": 6000,
+  "accepted_draws": 430,
+  "ess": 197.9,
+  "warnings": [],
+  "shocks": [
+    {
+      "shock": "World demand",
+      "p_positive": 0.287,
+      "p_negative": 0.713,
+      "reading": "World demand shock was probably negative in 2026Q1 (P(\u2212) = 0.71)."
+    },
+    {
+      "shock": "World energy",
+      "p_positive": 0.105,
+      "p_negative": 0.895,
+      "reading": "World energy shock was clearly negative in 2026Q1 (P(\u2212) = 0.90)."
+    },
+    {
+      "shock": "World supply",
+      "p_positive": 0.873,
+      "p_negative": 0.127,
+      "reading": "World supply shock was clearly positive in 2026Q1 (P(+) = 0.87)."
+    },
+    {
+      "shock": "UK demand",
+      "p_positive": 0.809,
+      "p_negative": 0.191,
+      "reading": "UK demand shock was clearly positive in 2026Q1 (P(+) = 0.81)."
+    },
+    {
+      "shock": "UK supply",
+      "p_positive": 0.715,
+      "p_negative": 0.285,
+      "reading": "UK supply shock was probably positive in 2026Q1 (P(+) = 0.71)."
+    },
+    {
+      "shock": "UK mon. pol.",
+      "p_positive": 0.16,
+      "p_negative": 0.84,
+      "reading": "UK mon. pol. shock was clearly negative in 2026Q1 (P(\u2212) = 0.84)."
+    }
+  ]
+}

svar/index.html

@@ -187,11 +187,10 @@ <h2>What's happening now, and why.</h2>
         by negative world-demand (probability <strong>0.71</strong>) and
         world-energy (<strong>0.90</strong>) shocks, against positive UK
         demand (<strong>0.81</strong>) and expansionary monetary policy
-        (<strong>0.84</strong>); the composite effect revises the
-        year-on-year path by <strong>+0.27pp on GDP growth</strong> at impact
-        and <strong>+0.22pp on CPI inflation</strong> at its peak three
-        quarters out.
-      </p>
+        (<strong>0.84</strong>). Source and provenance:
+        <a class="mono" href="/papers/boe-svar/figures/latest_shocks.json" download><code>latest_shocks.json</code></a>,
+        6,000 draws, 430 accepted, ESS 198.
+</p>
       <div class="callout">
         <strong>It does not score reforms.</strong> Mapping a policy reform
         into identified structural innovations is conceptually dubious, not