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Belgium 2025 vintages: FPB outlook annex, Eurostat 2025 taxes + 2024 ESSPROS, Statbel 2025 population - #195

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MaxGhenis merged 12 commits into
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Aug 24, 2026
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Belgium 2025 vintages: FPB outlook annex, Eurostat 2025 taxes + 2024 ESSPROS, Statbel 2025 population#195
MaxGhenis merged 12 commits into
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be-2025-vintages

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Fresh vintages for a coherent 2025 Microcosm-BE simulation (2025 policy in both engines; targets at 2025 levels; declared fact-ratio aging for older vintages):

  1. New fpb/economic_outlook_2026_2031_june_2026 — FPB "Economic Outlook 2026-2031, June 2026" statistical annex (HERMES; xlsx + report PDF hash-pinned; 990 facts from T01/T06/T07/T11/T17/T24, years 2022–2031, section-disambiguated record ids for the duplicate row labels). Observed-vs-forecast boundary recorded per the publication.
  2. Eurostat gov_10a_taxag — 2025 vintage pull (2022–2025) incl. D51A_C1 taxes on individual/household income (69,525 → 73,713 → 75,791 M for 2023→2025); existing 2024 file byte-identical.
  3. Eurostat spr_exp_func — 2024 vintage (all functions).
  4. New statbel-population-structure-2025 — 1 Jan 2025, same curator as the 2026 package (18 NUTS1 × sex × age cells).

Chronicle stores facts only: no aging factors, ratios, or targets — the consumer computes factors from declared fact pairs with an explicit PeriodAlignmentDeclaration. All raws uploaded to R2 at the manifest keys. 43 focused tests + full-bundle regression green on the branch; the bundle-count pin will be re-resolved at merge time behind #193/#194.

Built by a sol lane; reviewed by fable.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

MaxGhenis and others added 12 commits August 23, 2026 20:23
…2-2031)

The Microcosm-BE v0.5 harvest names this publisher row as the taxable-income
aging pair (2023 518,286M -> 2025 554,117M); Lane C5 selected the component
rows but omitted the total. Ten section-disambiguated record sets, pinned in
the vintage tests (counts 990 -> 1000).
# Conflicts:
#	tests/test_belgium_targets.py
#	tests/test_chronicle_bundle.py
The repo invariant requires every record set to declare provenance_class
textually, not inherit it through a YAML merge key. Parsed payload is
byte-identical; only the declaration becomes visible.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis merged commit fc49c31 into main Aug 24, 2026
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