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Refresh upstream model and use month-specific CCDF estimates - #9

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hua7450 merged 3 commits into
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refresh-model-monthly-estimates
Oct 5, 2026
Merged

hua7450 merged 3 commits into
mainfrom
refresh-model-monthly-estimates

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@hua7450 hua7450 commented Oct 3, 2026

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The calculator still used policyengine-us 1.824.8 and annual-average household results. This refresh uses upstream commit c916aae265d0ece149a55bebd1a430e467698bf6 (2.23.5) and a visible October 2026 reference month for household estimates, comparisons and live requests. All 51 state grids, comparison cells, input catalogs and policy summaries have been regenerated. Massachusetts uses the upstream unified center-provider enum; no court-supervision controls are added.

The reference-month reads fix the NC integer copay conversion ($20.83 → $250) and the misleading SD/IN annual averages. Provider charges interpolate consistently with subsidy and reference costs (the CO $1,200-per-child example becomes $2,293 subsidy and $107 cost). Out-of-grid charges and other ignored inputs are identified beside the headline; desktop inputs/results sit side by side. Cutoffs use the selected charge cell, retain lower-bound labels in dollar/percentage columns, and are excluded from finite cutoff maps/rankings when the income axis is exhausted. Older live model deployments are blocked to avoid incompatible inputs.

Population totals have not been regenerated. Their older model vintage and South Dakota annual coverage gap are visible, labels describe children in qualifying families, and the cross-year served ratio is explicitly not a measured take-up rate. Only descriptive population metadata changed. Sensitivity analysis and upstream policy-rule corrections remain outstanding; this does not fix CO reimbursement caps, the SD rate rules, or the previously identified NC/ME/NM policy issues.

Validation: 101 frontend tests; 653 Python tests passed and one existing Vermont exception skipped, including direct-model NC/SD/IN period regressions. Lint, TypeScript and production build pass. Browser checks verified CO charge interpolation, the household warning, NM lower-bound percentages, the population-vintage notice, and no horizontal overflow at mobile width. Live API month handling is covered by request/response tests; the older deployed API remains gated.

Closes #1, closes #2, closes #4, closes #7, closes #8.
Partially addresses #3, #5 and #6; keep these open for population follow-up.

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hua7450 marked this pull request as ready for review October 5, 2026 01:52
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hua7450 merged commit b4079f9 into main Oct 5, 2026
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