Require ogcore 0.16.3, regenerate the baseline demographics, and guard against drift

[marcelolafleur]

ogcore 0.16.3 changed how the pre-time-path population is handled (PSLmodels/OG-Core#1073): the demographic transition arrays shift by one period, and three new period-0 seeds (g_n_preTP, imm_rates_preTP, rho_preTP) feed the aggregation of investment, wealth, and bequests. A baseline baked under older ogcore is silently inconsistent under 0.16.3 — in OG-BRA the baseline time path converged but failed the resource-constraint check (max error 0.024). Same fix as OG-PHL#67, OG-ZAF#134, OG-IDN#52, and OG-ETH#63.

Three changes:

• Floor ogcore>=0.16.3 and Python 3.12+ (ogcore 0.16.2 dropped 3.11; on 3.11 dependency resolution silently falls back to ogcore 0.16.1). The CI matrix now tests 3.12 and 3.13 — it was not testing 3.13 before.
• Regenerate the packaged baseline demographics and earnings profile from the UN data under 0.16.3, adding the three seeds. Macro and tax parameters are untouched.
• Add guard tests (tests/test_consistency.py) so this class of breakage fails in CI instead of at solve time: the packaged baseline must carry every demographic seed the installed ogcore defines (this test fails on the pre-fix baseline with a "regenerate demographics" message), and a feature canary plus wheel-RECORD check catch a stale or locally built ogcore masquerading under a release version number. The sister repos don't have these yet; happy to port them over if useful.

Also fixes the stale README runtime note (a full baseline + reform run takes about 15–20 minutes, not "35 minutes to two hours").

Tested: pytest -m 'not local' passes (26 tests) on 3.12/3.13; the baseline and CIT-reform example solves.

cc @rickecon @jdebacker

[codecov-commenter]

Codecov Report

❌ Patch coverage is 89.28571% with 6 lines in your changes missing coverage. Please review.
⚠️ Please upload report for BASE (main@699cafb). Learn more about missing BASE report.

Files with missing lines	Patch %	Lines
tests/test_consistency.py	89.28%	6 Missing ⚠️

Additional details and impacted files

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unittests	86.81% <89.28%> (?)

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