D-SELF-CALIBRATING-LAB-0 phases I–IV: G2 law-A boundary, P5 Beta correspondence, P1 certified argmax, lab v0 (Gomoku)

.claude/board/STATUS_BOARD.md

@@ -30,14 +30,17 @@ Plan: `.claude/plans/2026-10-08-resident-projection-fold-mask-v1.md`. Mask = adm
 
 | D-id | scope | status | gate / falsifier |
 |---|---|---|---|
-| **D-RPF-0** | Pearl3 / Epi5 / mantissa predicate over `MaterializedEdges` via `MatchFacet16Strided`, threshold as ≤ n+1 patterns | In PR (test-pinned, `mask-risc/tests/resident_ce64_predicate.rs`) | equals CE64 accessors; wrong-bit care disagrees; unnamed fields silent; both windows stay inside the 32 B tenant |
+| **D-RPF-0** | Pearl3 / Epi5 / mantissa predicate over `MaterializedEdges` via `MatchFacet16Strided`, threshold as ≤ n+1 patterns | Shipped (#1413; test-pinned, `mask-risc/tests/resident_ce64_predicate.rs`) | equals CE64 accessors; wrong-bit care disagrees; unnamed fields silent; both windows stay inside the 32 B tenant |
 | **D-RPF-1** | Law tables → per-recipe ternary pattern set (≤ 24 × 8), run under an admission plane (class, rail, generation, provenance) | Queued | equals `measure_declared`; dropping one code loses exactly its rows; removing the admission plane admits a v1 row |
 | **D-RPF-2** | Census of eligibility and read-set classes on a real population | Queued | classes/rows reported; near 1 drops D-RPF-3; no population-sized seen-set |
 | **D-RPF-3** | Exact read-set dedup per CE64 instruction, key incl. handle context | Queued (after D-RPF-2) | removing cohort from key changes a result; dedup-then-fold equals per-row for Count/Sum/Avg |
 | **D-RPF-4** | Population revision as one `(Σw, Σw·f)` fold | Blocked (4 decisions; T1 LUT-weighted strided sum gap) | normative choice vs pairwise chain; c = 255 cap first |
 | **D-RPF-5** | Moore tenants 18..20 under a declared `SlabReading`; per-slot masks | Blocked (`SlabReading` decision) | sign-triple consumer refuses Moore lanes through the declared reading |
 | **D-RPF-6** | Tile skip on zero gate measured on resident-row predicates (capstone pt 3) | Queued | identical answers; dead-tile beside dead-word fraction |
 | **D-RPF-7** | Rank spectrum of the 256×256 palette distance LUTs | Queued (measurement only) | reported; never a fold |
+| **D-RPF-CONF-0** | Confidence surface: Rust vs exact integer form, (255,255), zero-weight identity, c=255 candidates, census of live revision laws | Shipped (#1424; measured) | T1 three one-code f32 deviations; (255,255) → (0,0); 24 defs → 7 laws → 4 behaviours; G1 open (`entries/2026-10-09-d-rpf-conf-0-confidence-surface.md`) |
+| **D-RPF-TABLE-1** | Cost of `NarsTables` resolutions B1..B16 vs exact revision A: surface, replay drift, decision flips, throughput | Shipped (#1426; measured); G2 follow-up: law-A load-bearing fixture + frequency-bar rationale without B1's constant (this PR) | B1 2.2–4.4× hot replay, 37.9% verdict flips; no Bn decision-stable; A wins cold; law-A fixture 210 → 64 flips, B1–B8 miss it, B16 agrees (`entries/2026-10-09-d-rpf-table-1-fast-path-cost.md`) |
+| **D-RPF-P5** | NARS ↔ Beta correspondence on the CE64 surface: Jeffreys identity, unit-evidence stall, duplicate inflation, variance coarseness, 255 unreachable | In PR (tests only) | E1 exact for k = 1, k = 2 distinguishable; E2 stall at c = 244 after 20 unit obs; E2b 12-row stall table; E3 4 copies → sd 2.04× too small; E5 max revision code 254; ceil-rounding disable turns E2/E2b/E5 red (`entries/2026-10-10-d-rpf-p5-nars-beta-correspondence.md`) |
 | **D-RPF-8** | Boundary: mask-risc never executes CE64 instructions; no VSA on this path | Queued (doc) | review-enforced |
 | **D-RPF-9** | Fold-Join deforestation probe: resident ∧ resident, predicate chains gated/ungated, CE64 in place, strided pattern merge | Shipped (probe; R2/R3/G1–G3 proposed) | every arm equals the oracle; care-shift fires, non-care rewrite silent; merge precondition refuses conflicting cares |
 
@@ -84,7 +87,11 @@ Plan: `.claude/plans/2026-10-06-global-sudoku-replayable-orchestration-v1.md`. O
 | **D-ALPHA-G-0** | WorldG as Alpha-route provenance, not a CE64 field | Shipped (#1372) | `cognitive-shader-driver/examples/alpha_world_provenance_probe.rs`: event = (Alpha-attended address, CE64); WorldG = `graph_of(addr)`, order = `SpogTenants` route (`merge_in_claim_order`); same CE64 bits in two worlds = two events; replay of the same claims recovers the world sequence with all-zero edges; changing CE64 fields never moves the world while the events change; fed from the tunnel's per-world shadows each `MailboxSoA` holds only its own deliveries through the unchanged `apply_edges`; an undeclared world is refused at the tunnel (`NoTenant`). No production caller of `apply_edges` exists, so "no mixing" is absence of a path; 5 tests, 5 disable runs red |
 | **D-WA-0** | Witness × Angle as a declared sparse local source coordinate | Shipped (#1372) | `cognitive-shader-driver/examples/witness_angle_probe.rs`: `(class, generation, w_slot, direction bits 43..45) → SourceCoord` under a probe-local sparse law (6 entries); same bits mean different sources in another class of the same world, in another world and in another generation; undeclared class, a class reading the bits as pathology triad or cohort `WitnessTable`, an undeclared generation, Witness 0 and v1/unknown provenance refuse; other CE64 fields never move the coordinate; world from the attended key, never the edge; 0 allocations; 7 tests, 8 disable runs red |
 | **D-CE64-TIME-0** | `CausalEdge64` as the register that survives a cycle | In PR | `cognitive-shader-driver/examples/ce64_cycle_survival_probe.rs`: one declared (`set_populated`) `MailboxSoA` `edges` row (cycle-gated `write_row` + `tick`, read back through `MailboxSoaView`) is the only cross-cycle state; folds = shipped `CausalEdge64::learn` (NARS revision of F/C) over a per-cycle `SupportLedger`; next-cycle reading = the #1370 law, moved unchanged to `examples/shared/affordance_law.rs`. Trajectory over cycles 0..3: eligible `OBS, OBS, OBS\|STRATIFY, OBS` (accumulation, certification read next cycle, contradiction read next cycle). The EpistemicState5 step (3 ↔ 7) is probe-declared: no production writer of bits 59..63 from evidence exists (`ISS-NO-EVIDENCE-WRITER-FOR-EPISTEMIC-STATE`). F1–F7 tests; 1000 folds from one source never certify; sources split across cycles never combine (missing state, pinned); an undeclared row is not a register. 10 tests, 9 disable runs red |
-| **D-MOORE-NARS-0** | Recipe learning from reasoning consequences on Gomoku (`cognitive-shader-driver/examples/moore_nars_gomoku_probe.rs`): census of the 34 recipes, 9 realized on Moore lines, structural `situation → recipe` NARS learner | In PR | persistent structural learner 0.500 → 0.535 vs best fixed recipe 0.498 and reset-every-game ~0.47; literal-board memory and immediate credit learn nothing; W-delayed one-reply credit is the spine; transfer to unseen openings 0.526 vs 0.493; "less work" not achieved (~280 folds/step); unlearning after switch not demonstrated (`entries/2026-10-08-moore-nars-0-recipe-learning-gomoku.md`) |
+| **D-MOORE-NARS-0** | Recipe learning from reasoning consequences on Gomoku (`cognitive-shader-driver/examples/moore_nars_gomoku_probe.rs`): census of the 34 recipes, 9 realized on Moore lines, structural `situation → recipe` NARS learner | Shipped (#1400) | persistent structural learner 0.500 → 0.535 vs best fixed recipe 0.498 and reset-every-game ~0.47; literal-board memory and immediate credit learn nothing; W-delayed one-reply credit is the spine; transfer to unseen openings 0.526 vs 0.493; "less work" not achieved (~280 folds/step); unlearning after switch not demonstrated (`entries/2026-10-08-moore-nars-0-recipe-learning-gomoku.md`) |
+| **D-MOORE-PERT-AB-0** | Moore perturbation field A/B probe with an independent arm and statistical comparison (`examples/MoorePertubationsfeld.rs`) | Shipped (#1427; probe) | CI line; percentile fix; timings dropped from asserts; falsifiable tests |
+| **D-MOORE-OBSERVABLE-FIRST-0** | Certify N-1 overload decisions before field convergence (linear flow model) | Shipped (#1428; measured) | solver-agnostic ‖r‖₁ bound + warm start certifies most decisions early; PCG/LODF beat Jacobi; bound proven for the linear flow model only (`entries/2026-10-09-d-moore-observable-first-0.md`) |
+| **D-LAB-P1** | Certified argmax on Gomoku minimax: deterministic `L_best ≥ U_j` cutoff (`minimax_certified`) | In PR (probe) | same pick as `minimax` on 400 positions at k 4/4, 5/5, 8/8; folds −36.2 / −44.8 / −61.0 %; cut at `L + 1` changes a pick (`entries/2026-10-10-d-lab-p1-certified-argmax-gomoku.md`) |
+| **D-SELF-CALIBRATING-LAB-0** | Hypothesis lab v0: shared paired/Holm/verdict/reliability statistics (`examples/shared/lab.rs`) + Gomoku arm (`moore_nars_gomoku_probe --lab`) | In PR (probe; Gomoku + crossword) | crossword (16 fresh puzzles): C1 Support −36× nodes SUPPORTED, C2–C4 ops FALSIFIED (Support 13×, Single 2.9×, Pair 2.2× more ops); Gomoku fresh-seed confirmation, 16 blocks: H2 learned > fixed HPM +0.024 SUPPORTED; H4 certified −29 folds/step, identical games at cost 0 SUPPORTED; H7 cost term −143 folds/step SUPPORTED (−0.026 score); H3 INCONCLUSIVE; H5 FALSIFIED; e ECE 0.05 over non-neutral outcomes (`entries/2026-10-10-d-self-calibrating-lab-0.md`) |
 | **D-CE64-NEXTSTATE-0** | EpistemicState5 as a sparse next-state mutation of the CE64 register | In PR | `cognitive-shader-driver/examples/ce64_nextstate_probe.rs`: N1 only bits 59..63 move, all 32 codes on an edge with every field set; N2 written in cycle k through `MailboxSoA::write_row`, read in k+1 through `MailboxSoaView`; N3 the mailbox does not double-buffer (a same-cycle read sees the write), and next-cycle authority is a read discipline: start-of-cycle copy plus `last_write_cycle == cycle` treated as pending; N4 canonical LE round trip (bits 59..63 in byte 7, bits 3..7); N5 a fresh mailbox from the persisted word continues identically; N6 the shipped `with_spare` + `with_truth` compile to `bzhi; shl; or`, identical to the masked insert (LLVM folded the two), so no 5-bit writer is added. Production change: `CausalEdge64::to_le_bytes` / `from_le_bytes` (mirroring `EpisodicEdges64`) and the register contract on the type. 6 tests, 7 disable runs red |
 | **D-ANCESTRY-K1-0** | StreamDto / PerturbationDto / BusDto / p64 / shader-driver ancestry vs code | Shipped (this PR) | `entries/2026-10-06-streamdto-circuit-ancestry.md`: v3 docs first, then code (git history is shallow at #1327). The k → k+1 loop was intended (`EmitMode::Persist`, `persist_cycle`, `mailbox-thoughtspace` read shim, W4a cast pairing) and left open: the driver owned its mailbox read-only. Path B |
 | **D-STREAMDTO-0** | A real `StreamDto` through the shipped path to next-cycle #1370 eligibility | In PR | `cognitive-shader-driver/examples/streamdto_circuit_probe.rs`: `StreamDto` → the new `ingest_codebook_indices_soa` (straight into the SoA, cycle-gated `write_row`, encoding shared with the superseded BindSpace arm) → `dispatch` k → `persisted_row` gets `emitted_edges[0]` via the new `ShaderDriver::mailbox_mut` → `tick` → `dispatch` k+1 reads it and changes → `measure`. The edge steers k+1 only through `s_idx / 4`; the shader writes code 0, so eligibility is unchanged by the circuit (`0x20`, same as an unwritten word; code 7 gives `0x24`). Timestamp ≠ cycle; restart from LE bytes reproduces k+1. CI step added (feature-gated targets incl. `w2_differential` were never run). 6 tests + 1 lib test, 9 disable runs red |

.claude/board/entries/2026-10-10-d-lab-p1-certified-argmax-gomoku.md

@@ -0,0 +1,52 @@
+# D-LAB-P1 — certified argmax on Gomoku: a deterministic certificate (2026-10-10)
+
+**Status:** MEASURED. Probe only
+(`crates/cognitive-shader-driver/examples/moore_nars_gomoku_probe.rs`,
+`minimax_certified` + `certified_minimax_picks_what_minimax_picks_with_fewer_folds`).
+Stockfish O1 untouched. `Op::Asc` and `Opp::Lookahead` still call `minimax`.
+
+## Certificate (kind: deterministic)
+
+A candidate's value is the minimum over its replies, so the running minimum
+is an upper bound U that only falls. The best finished candidate has an exact
+value L. When U ≤ L, the candidate cannot be chosen (the choice needs a strict
+`>`), and its remaining replies are skipped. No value exceeds 7, so a finished
+7 ends the search. This is the alpha-beta cutoff at the root, stated as a
+certificate: `L_best ≥ U_j` ⇒ j is excluded. It holds by construction, not by
+measurement; the corpus test checks the implementation.
+
+#1428's residual bound was not reused: it is proven for the linear flow model
+only.
+
+## Measured (400 reasoning positions; propagation-decided positions excluded)
+
+| k1/k2 | folds full | folds certified | saved | positions with a cut | pick changed |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| 4/4 | 442,720 | 282,480 | 36.2 % | 400/400 | 0 |
+| 5/5 | 665,076 | 367,344 | 44.8 % | 400/400 | 0 |
+| 8/8 | 1,601,258 | 624,386 | 61.0 % | 400/400 | 0 |
+
+Savings grow with branching, as expected for cutoffs. Overhead: one
+comparison per evaluated reply. Abstentions: none (an exact search never
+abstains; it only skips).
+
+CI: the probe is `test = true` and runs under rust-test.yml's shader-driver
+step. Disable run: cutting at `U ≤ L + 1` (unsound by one) → the test fails on
+k = 4/4 with a changed pick. Pinned fold counts are exact (deterministic
+corpus).
+
+## For the lab
+
+This is strategy S7 (certified early stopping) on one task, with a
+decision-identical guarantee. It answers H4 on Gomoku minimax: computation
+drops 36–61 % with zero changed decisions. It does not touch D-MOORE-NARS-0's
+"less work not achieved" by itself: that probe's recipes would need to call
+`minimax_certified`, which would change its reported folds but not its games.
+That swap is the first lab arm to measure, not an edit made here.
+
+```
+PR (this) | STATUS: measured | OUTCOME: deterministic certified argmax on
+Gomoku minimax: identical picks on 400 positions, 36-61% fewer folds; unsound
+cut changes a pick | OPEN: recipes still call minimax by default; no
+certificate yet for statistical (sampled) values
+```

.claude/board/entries/2026-10-10-d-rpf-g2-law-a-boundary.md

@@ -0,0 +1,60 @@
+# D-RPF-G2 — the law for decision-bearing wiring; P8 audit closed (2026-10-10)
+
+Follows `entries/2026-10-09-d-rpf-table-1-fast-path-cost.md` (#1426), which
+already holds the P8 semantic audit. This entry re-checks it against code,
+records the G2 boundary, and closes two of its four open items.
+
+## P8 — re-checked in code
+
+| question | answer | where |
+|---|---|---|
+| Which law does replay run? | Whatever `NarsTables` the caller passes; every caller passes `build(1)` (B1) except `tests/chain_confidence.rs` (16) | `chain_replay.rs::replay_step` |
+| Who calls it outside tests? | Nobody. `replay_chain`, `counterfactual_replay` and `pearl::reason`'s `CutContext` are built only under `#[cfg(test)]` (`chain_admission.rs:165`, `pearl.rs:427`, `chain_counterfactual.rs:272`), in `tests/` and in examples | read 2026-10-10 |
+| `NarsEngine::tables` consumed? | No production reader. `NarsEngine::new` (production instance `strategy/chat_bundle.rs:42`) allocates `build(1)`; `revise_fast`/`deduce_fast` have test callers only | `cache/nars_engine.rs` |
+| Does replay overwrite forward's truth? | **Yes, confirmed.** `CausalEdge64::execute` computes `op.truth(..)` and packs it with `op.inference_type()`; `replay_step` then writes revision's F/C over it. The emitted edge names the weight's opcode (e.g. Deduction) and carries a revision truth | `causal-edge/src/edge.rs` `execute`; `chain_replay.rs` `replay_step` step 3 |
+
+No production behaviour depends on any of this today.
+
+## G2 — recommendation (DECISION, scoped)
+
+- DECISION: future decision-bearing consumers of replay/revision use exact
+  revision (law A). A table resolution is admissible only for a hot,
+  dependent replay whose measured decision-flip rate on that workload's own
+  corpus is below a bar stated before the run.
+- SCOPE: new wiring only. `NarsEngine::new`'s `build(1)` default and every
+  existing public default stay as they are (operator-held).
+- BASIS: #1426 — no Bn is decision-stable (B16: 4.7 % verdict flips); A beats
+  every table cold and beats B8/B16 on random access.
+- REVISIT WHEN: a real recorded chain corpus exists (both #1426 corpora are
+  synthetic) or a consumer needs replay throughput A cannot meet.
+
+G1 (the (255,255) cell and finite vs dogmatic evidence) is untouched and stays
+open; it is a separate decision.
+
+## Closed here
+
+1. **Load-bearing fixture re-derived under law A.**
+   `tests/d_rpf_table_1.rs::a_load_bearing_fixture_under_law_a`: seed 200/200,
+   support 250/250, refutation 10/230, cut 0. Law A: `LoadBearing {210 → 64}`.
+   Tables `[B1, B2, B4, B8, B16]` → load-bearing `[false, false, false, false,
+   true]`. The mirror image of the old fixture (load-bearing under B1 only).
+   Disable run: law A replaced by B1 → red, B1 reads `TruthOnly {118 → 105}`;
+   with B1 even the supported factual arm falls below the bar.
+2. **`DEFAULT_FREQUENCY_BAR` rationale** no longer cites B1's constant 170 as
+   evidence; the semantic reason (consistency is strength, not amount of
+   evidence) stands alone. `the_bar_is_not_inert` keeps pinning 170, labelled
+   as B1's constant.
+
+## Still open
+
+- forward's discarded truth (compute waste) and the opcode/truth label
+  mismatch on replayed edges — recorded, unchanged.
+- G1.
+
+```
+PR (this) | STATUS: done | OUTCOME: P8 re-checked in code (no production
+consumer; replay overwrites forward's truth); G2 recorded as law A for new
+decision-bearing wiring, defaults untouched; law-A load-bearing fixture
+pinned; frequency-bar rationale corrected | OPEN: G1; forward truth discard
+and opcode label mismatch
+```