Skip to content

housing/total_mortgage cites the ONS rent bulletin, which carries no mortgage figure #453

Description

@juaristi22

What

policyengine_uk_data/targets/sources/housing.py builds the national calibration target housing/total_mortgage as £1,100/month × 12 × 7.5m owner-occupiers with a mortgage (~£99bn), with reference_url pointing at the ONS bulletin "Private rent and house prices, UK: March 2026":

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/privaterentandhousepricesuk/march2026

That bulletin publishes PIPR average private rents (UK £1,374/month at February 2026, etc.) and house-price statistics. It carries no average mortgage payment figure at all — the citation does not support the value. The module docstring lists sources for rent and tenure counts but names no source for the £1,100, and the 7.5m mortgagor-household count is likewise an unpinned ~ approximation with no published table behind it.

How this was found

During the uk-data → Chronicle migration (chronicle#133, chronicle#159), porting housing/total_mortgage was refused because no publisher source exists for the value; it is recorded as a first-class blocked row in chronicle's docs/pe-uk-source-checklist.md. Review on that PR flagged that the mis-citation is live in this repo and deserves its own issue rather than living only in a PR body.

Nearest sourced anchor (not a drop-in replacement)

English Housing Survey 2023-24 rented sectors, Annex Table 1.7: mean weekly housing costs for all mortgagors = £222.42/week ≈ £964/month. Caveats: England only (not UK), and per the table's note 5, EHS mortgagor costs include households set to a nominal £0.02/week (shared owners with no outstanding loan, equity-release mortgages at 55+), which depresses the mean. So it anchors the order of magnitude but cannot simply be substituted.

Ask

Rebuild housing/total_mortgage on a real published source — both the per-household payment and the mortgagor-household count need pinned publisher tables — or retire/replace the target. Until then the target inherits a citation that does not support it.

Metadata

Metadata

Assignees

No one assigned

    Labels

    No labels
    No labels

    Type

    No type

    Projects

    No projects

    Milestone

    No milestone

    Relationships

    None yet

    Development

    No branches or pull requests

    Issue actions