diff --git a/app/public/data/lanes.json b/app/public/data/lanes.json
index 51fdf89..903b1f9 100644
--- a/app/public/data/lanes.json
+++ b/app/public/data/lanes.json
@@ -160,10 +160,10 @@
    "source": "HMRC",
    "area": "UK personal tax statistics",
    "mode": 1,
-   "stage": "registered",
+   "stage": "ingested",
    "running": false,
-   "updated": "2026-08-01",
-   "note": "#3"
+   "updated": "2026-08-14",
+   "note": "External side built (#36): 1,213 rows \u2014 Table 2.1 payers by marginal rate/sex/age 1990-91 to 2026-27, Table 2.5 counts+liabilities by income range x band, full June-2025 ready reckoner (12 tax heads, reform deltas w/ baseline_key); reckoner_t2 campaign counterparts attach via #33"
   },
   {
    "id": "obr-welfare",
@@ -306,4 +306,4 @@
    "note": "205 claims, 675 per-release results (5 releases, 180 attached to harvest claims); 11 unscoreable rows skipped"
   }
  ]
-}
\ No newline at end of file
+}
diff --git a/data/externals/hmrc-personal-tax.json b/data/externals/hmrc-personal-tax.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..3f6879c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/data/externals/hmrc-personal-tax.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+[{"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "total", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1990-91", "value": 26100000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:total"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "basic_rate", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1990-91", "value": 24400000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:basic_rate"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "higher_rate", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1990-91", "value": 1700000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:higher_rate"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "male", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1990-91", "value": 15400000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:male"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "female", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1990-91", "value": 10700000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:female"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "age_under_65", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1990-91", "value": 23000000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:age_under_65"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "age_65_plus", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1990-91", "value": 3120000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:age_65_plus"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "state_pension_age", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1990-91", "value": 3620000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:state_pension_age"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "total", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1991-92", "value": 25700000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:total"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "basic_rate", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1991-92", "value": 24100000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:basic_rate"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "higher_rate", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1991-92", "value": 1620000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:higher_rate"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "male", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1991-92", "value": 15100000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:male"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "female", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1991-92", "value": 10600000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:female"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "age_under_65", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1991-92", "value": 22800000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:age_under_65"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "age_65_plus", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1991-92", "value": 2930000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:age_65_plus"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "state_pension_age", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1991-92", "value": 3590000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:state_pension_age"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "total", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1992-93", "value": 25400000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:total"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "lower_or_starting_rate", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1992-93", "value": 4240000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:lower_or_starting_rate"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "basic_rate", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1992-93", "value": 19400000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:basic_rate"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "higher_rate", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1992-93", "value": 1720000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:higher_rate"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "male", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1992-93", "value": 14900000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:male"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "female", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1992-93", "value": 10500000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:female"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "age_under_65", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1992-93", "value": 22400000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:age_under_65"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "age_65_plus", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1992-93", "value": 2960000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:age_65_plus"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "state_pension_age", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1992-93", "value": 3480000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:state_pension_age"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "total", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1993-94", "value": 25000000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:total"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "lower_or_starting_rate", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1993-94", "value": 5390000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:lower_or_starting_rate"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "basic_rate", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1993-94", "value": 17900000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:basic_rate"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "higher_rate", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1993-94", "value": 1740000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:higher_rate"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "male", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1993-94", "value": 14600000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:male"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "female", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1993-94", "value": 10300000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:female"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "age_under_65", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1993-94", "value": 22000000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:age_under_65"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "age_65_plus", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1993-94", "value": 3040000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:age_65_plus"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "state_pension_age", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1993-94", "value": 3570000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:state_pension_age"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "total", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1994-95", "value": 25300000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:total"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "lower_or_starting_rate", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1994-95", "value": 5180000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:lower_or_starting_rate"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "basic_rate", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1994-95", "value": 18200000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:basic_rate"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "higher_rate", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1994-95", "value": 2000000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:higher_rate"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "male", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1994-95", "value": 14700000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:male"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "female", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1994-95", "value": 10600000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:female"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "age_under_65", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1994-95", "value": 22100000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:age_under_65"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "age_65_plus", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1994-95", "value": 3250000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:age_65_plus"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "state_pension_age", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1994-95", "value": 3860000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:state_pension_age"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "total", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1995-96", "value": 25800000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:total"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "lower_or_starting_rate", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", 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"country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "female", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1995-96", "value": 10800000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:female"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "age_under_65", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1995-96", "value": 22500000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:age_under_65"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "age_65_plus", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1995-96", "value": 3320000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:age_65_plus"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "state_pension_age", "variant": null, "geography": 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"variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1996-97", "value": 22400000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:age_under_65"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "age_65_plus", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1996-97", "value": 3280000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:age_65_plus"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "state_pension_age", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1996-97", "value": 3860000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:state_pension_age"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "total", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1997-98", "value": 26200000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:total"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "lower_or_starting_rate", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1997-98", "value": 7690000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:lower_or_starting_rate"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "basic_rate", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1997-98", "value": 16400000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:basic_rate"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "income_tax", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "subgroup": "higher_rate", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "individuals", "period": "1997-98", "value": 2120000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "2_1:higher_rate"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": 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"gbp_nominal", "period": "2026-27", "value": -45000000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "reckoner", "sign_convention": "magnitude_with_direction_in_label", "direction": "yield", "change_direction": "increase"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "stamp_duty_land_tax", "metric": "revenue_effect", "subgroup": "Increase Higher Rates of Duty on Additional Dwellings by 1 percentage point (Yield)", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "gbp_nominal", "period": "2027-28", "value": -130000000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "reckoner", "sign_convention": "magnitude_with_direction_in_label", "direction": "yield", "change_direction": "increase"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "stamp_duty_land_tax", "metric": "revenue_effect", "subgroup": "Increase Higher Rates of Duty on Additional Dwellings by 1 percentage point (Yield)", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "gbp_nominal", "period": "2028-29", "value": -50000000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "reckoner", "sign_convention": "magnitude_with_direction_in_label", "direction": "yield", "change_direction": "increase"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "stamp_duty_land_tax", "metric": "revenue_effect", "subgroup": "Decrease NRSDLT by 1 percentage point (Cost)", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "gbp_nominal", "period": "2026-27", "value": 10000000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "reckoner", "sign_convention": "magnitude_with_direction_in_label", "direction": "cost", "change_direction": "decrease"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "stamp_duty_land_tax", "metric": "revenue_effect", "subgroup": "Decrease NRSDLT by 1 percentage point (Cost)", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "gbp_nominal", "period": "2027-28", "value": -5000000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "reckoner", "sign_convention": "magnitude_with_direction_in_label", "direction": "cost", "change_direction": "decrease"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "stamp_duty_land_tax", "metric": "revenue_effect", "subgroup": "Decrease NRSDLT by 1 percentage point (Cost)", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "gbp_nominal", "period": "2028-29", "value": 25000000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "reckoner", "sign_convention": "magnitude_with_direction_in_label", "direction": "cost", "change_direction": "decrease"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "stamp_duty_land_tax", "metric": "revenue_effect", "subgroup": "Increase NRSDLT by 1 percentage point (Yield)", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "gbp_nominal", "period": "2026-27", "value": -10000000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "reckoner", "sign_convention": "magnitude_with_direction_in_label", "direction": "yield", "change_direction": "increase"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "stamp_duty_land_tax", "metric": "revenue_effect", "subgroup": "Increase NRSDLT by 1 percentage point (Yield)", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "gbp_nominal", "period": "2027-28", "value": -25000000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "reckoner", "sign_convention": "magnitude_with_direction_in_label", "direction": "yield", "change_direction": "increase"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "stamp_duty_land_tax", "metric": "revenue_effect", "subgroup": "Increase NRSDLT by 1 percentage point (Yield)", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "gbp_nominal", "period": "2028-29", "value": 0.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "reckoner", "sign_convention": "magnitude_with_direction_in_label", "direction": "yield", "change_direction": "increase"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "stamp_duty_land_tax", "metric": "revenue_effect", "subgroup": "Decrease non-residential 5% marginal rate by 1 percentage point (Cost)", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "gbp_nominal", "period": "2026-27", "value": 305000000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "reckoner", "sign_convention": "magnitude_with_direction_in_label", "direction": "cost", "change_direction": "decrease"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "stamp_duty_land_tax", "metric": "revenue_effect", "subgroup": "Decrease non-residential 5% marginal rate by 1 percentage point (Cost)", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "gbp_nominal", "period": "2027-28", "value": 355000000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "reckoner", "sign_convention": "magnitude_with_direction_in_label", "direction": "cost", "change_direction": "decrease"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "stamp_duty_land_tax", "metric": "revenue_effect", "subgroup": "Decrease non-residential 5% marginal rate by 1 percentage point (Cost)", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "gbp_nominal", "period": "2028-29", "value": 410000000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "reckoner", "sign_convention": "magnitude_with_direction_in_label", "direction": "cost", "change_direction": "decrease"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "stamp_duty_land_tax", "metric": "revenue_effect", "subgroup": "Increase non-residential 5% marginal rate by 1 percentage point (Yield)", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "gbp_nominal", "period": "2026-27", "value": 150000000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "reckoner", "sign_convention": "magnitude_with_direction_in_label", "direction": "yield", "change_direction": "increase"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "stamp_duty_land_tax", "metric": "revenue_effect", "subgroup": "Increase non-residential 5% marginal rate by 1 percentage point (Yield)", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "gbp_nominal", "period": "2027-28", "value": 185000000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "reckoner", "sign_convention": "magnitude_with_direction_in_label", "direction": "yield", "change_direction": "increase"}, {"source": "hmrc-personal-tax", "country": "UK", "program": "stamp_duty_land_tax", "metric": "revenue_effect", "subgroup": "Increase non-residential 5% marginal rate by 1 percentage point (Yield)", "variant": null, "geography": "UK", "unit_concept": "gbp_nominal", "period": "2028-29", "value": 230000000.0, "status": "ok", "source_column": "reckoner", "sign_convention": "magnitude_with_direction_in_label", "direction": "yield", "change_direction": "increase"}]
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/lanes.json b/data/lanes.json
index 51fdf89..903b1f9 100644
--- a/data/lanes.json
+++ b/data/lanes.json
@@ -160,10 +160,10 @@
    "source": "HMRC",
    "area": "UK personal tax statistics",
    "mode": 1,
-   "stage": "registered",
+   "stage": "ingested",
    "running": false,
-   "updated": "2026-08-01",
-   "note": "#3"
+   "updated": "2026-08-14",
+   "note": "External side built (#36): 1,213 rows \u2014 Table 2.1 payers by marginal rate/sex/age 1990-91 to 2026-27, Table 2.5 counts+liabilities by income range x band, full June-2025 ready reckoner (12 tax heads, reform deltas w/ baseline_key); reckoner_t2 campaign counterparts attach via #33"
   },
   {
    "id": "obr-welfare",
@@ -306,4 +306,4 @@
    "note": "205 claims, 675 per-release results (5 releases, 180 attached to harvest claims); 11 unscoreable rows skipped"
   }
  ]
-}
\ No newline at end of file
+}
diff --git a/sources/hmrc-personal-tax/adapter.py b/sources/hmrc-personal-tax/adapter.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..c66a47f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/hmrc-personal-tax/adapter.py
@@ -0,0 +1,522 @@
+"""Adapter: HMRC personal tax statistics -> tidy rows.
+
+Input:  raw/income_tax_liabilities_tables_2_1_to_2_6.ods
+        (Income Tax liabilities statistics 2023-24 to 2026-27, published
+        2026-07-15; SPI-based, projected years on OBR assumptions)
+        raw/june_2025_tax_ready_reckoner.ods
+        (Direct effects of illustrative tax changes, June 2025 edition —
+        still current: the scheduled July 2026 update was deferred by HMRC)
+Output: data/externals/hmrc-personal-tax.json — tidy rows in the scorecard
+        schema.
+
+Coverage in this build:
+    - Table 2.1: Income Tax payer counts by marginal rate / sex / age,
+      1990-91 to 2026-27 (levels; program income_tax)
+    - Table 2.5 (four year-sheets): payer counts and liabilities by income
+      range x marginal-rate band, plus totals and averages
+    - the full ready reckoner: revenue effects of illustrative changes
+      (program per tax head; these are REFORM DELTAS against HMRC's
+      indexed baseline as of Spring Statement 2025, April 2026 start —
+      period rows carry that baseline, see annotations)
+    Tables 2.2 (region x demographic), 2.4 (shares) and 2.6 (income
+    source) are in the same raw file but not yet emitted.
+
+Value semantics:
+    - counts are THOUSANDS -> raw individuals
+    - liabilities/incomes are £ MILLIONS -> raw GBP; averages are raw £
+    - 'Average rate of Income Tax' is percent -> fraction
+    - ready-reckoner effects are £ MILLIONS -> raw GBP
+    - '[not applicable]' cells (band did not exist that year) are skipped
+      entirely; '[not available]' / '[no estimate]' / 'Neg' (>0 but rounds
+      to 0) -> status 'suppressed'
+    - subgroups for ready-reckoner rows are the verbatim change
+      descriptions (they are the claim identity, including (cost)/(yield)
+      asymmetry)
+
+Sign convention on ready-reckoner rows (see classify_reckoner_label):
+    HMRC publishes these as magnitudes with the direction carried in the
+    English label, so a cost row and a yield row can BOTH be positive
+    ('Increase additional rate by 1p (yield)' +£145m and 'Decrease
+    additional rate by 1p (cost)' +£175m in 2026-27). They are NOT
+    (reform - baseline) deltas, and negatives that do appear are HMRC's own
+    published signs, not a normalisation. Every revenue_effect row therefore
+    carries sign_convention / direction / change_direction so a downstream
+    comparison can orient the sign without parsing English.
+"""
+
+import json
+import re
+import zipfile
+import xml.etree.ElementTree as ET
+from pathlib import Path
+
+HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parent
+OUT_DIR = HERE.parent.parent / "data" / "externals"
+OUT_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+
+SOURCE_ID = "hmrc-personal-tax"
+
+TNS = "urn:oasis:names:tc:opendocument:xmlns:table:1.0"
+NS = {"table": TNS, "text": "urn:oasis:names:tc:opendocument:xmlns:text:1.0"}
+
+LIABILITIES_FILE = "income_tax_liabilities_tables_2_1_to_2_6.ods"
+RECKONER_FILE = "june_2025_tax_ready_reckoner.ods"
+
+SKIPPED = {"[not applicable]"}
+SUPPRESSED = {"[not available]", "[no estimate]", "Neg"}
+
+T21_SUBGROUPS = {
+    "All Income Tax payers": "total",
+    "Lower or starting rate": "lower_or_starting_rate",
+    "Savers rate": "savers_rate",
+    "Basic rate": "basic_rate",
+    "Higher rate": "higher_rate",
+    "Additional rate": "additional_rate",
+    "Males": "male",
+    "Females": "female",
+    "Age under 65": "age_under_65",
+    "Age 65 and over": "age_65_plus",
+    "State pension age": "state_pension_age",
+}
+
+T25_BANDS = {
+    "savers rate": "savers_rate",
+    "basic rate": "basic_rate",
+    "higher rate": "higher_rate",
+    "additional rate": "additional_rate",
+}
+
+RECKONER_PROGRAMS = {
+    "Income Tax rates": "income_tax",
+    "Income Tax allowances and reliefs": "income_tax",
+    "Income Tax limits": "income_tax",
+    "Income Tax allowances, starting and basic rate limits": "income_tax",
+    "National Insurance contributions rates": "national_insurance",
+    "National Insurance Contribution Limits": "national_insurance",
+    "Child Benefit": "child_benefit",
+    "Corporation tax": "corporation_tax",
+    "Capital Gains Tax": "capital_gains_tax",
+    "Inheritance tax": "inheritance_tax",
+    "1% change in various duties": "duties",
+    "Vehicle excise duty": "vehicle_excise_duty",
+    "Air passenger duty": "air_passenger_duty",
+    "VAT": "vat",
+    "Insurance premium tax": "insurance_premium_tax",
+    "Stamp duty land tax": "stamp_duty_land_tax",
+}
+
+
+SIGN_CONVENTION = "magnitude_with_direction_in_label"
+
+# Change verbs HMRC uses to open a ready-reckoner row, mapped to the direction
+# of the change itself as the label states it.
+CHANGE_VERBS = {
+    "Change": "unsigned",
+    "Increase": "increase",
+    "Raise": "increase",
+    "Decrease": "decrease",
+    "Cut": "decrease",
+}
+
+# Sections whose heading, not the row label, states the change. The rows under
+# them are bare commodity names ('Petrol', 'Landfill tax', ...).
+SECTIONS_STATING_THE_CHANGE = {"1% change in various duties"}
+
+DIRECTION_MARKER = re.compile(r"\((cost|yield)\)$", re.IGNORECASE)
+TRAILING_PAREN = re.compile(r"\([^()]*\)$")
+
+
+def classify_reckoner_label(label, section):
+    """Verbatim label text -> (direction, change_direction).
+
+    direction is the fiscal direction HMRC's figure describes:
+        'cost' / 'yield'  the label carries an explicit (cost)/(yield) marker,
+                          so the positive magnitude is a revenue loss / gain
+        'stated_change'   the label states no fiscal direction; the figure is
+                          the effect of the change the label describes
+
+    change_direction is the direction of the change itself, again read off the
+    label's own verb: 'increase', 'decrease', or 'unsigned' where the label says
+    only 'Change ...' (HMRC's figure applies in either direction) or names a
+    duty whose change lives in the section heading.
+
+    Both are derived ONLY from the label text. Nothing is inferred from the
+    value's sign or from what the parameter does: an unmarked 'Increase ...' row
+    is NOT assumed to be a yield, because HMRC publishes several of them
+    negative ('Increase lower Capital Gains Tax rate by 10 percentage points' is
+    -£130m in 2026-27, an increase that loses revenue). Unrecognised labels
+    raise rather than defaulting to a direction.
+    """
+    marker = DIRECTION_MARKER.search(label)
+    if marker:
+        direction = marker.group(1).lower()
+    else:
+        stray = TRAILING_PAREN.search(label)
+        if stray:
+            raise ValueError(
+                f"reckoner: unclassifiable direction marker {stray.group(0)!r} "
+                f"in label {label!r}"
+            )
+        direction = "stated_change"
+
+    head = label.split(" ", 1)[0]
+    if head in CHANGE_VERBS:
+        change_direction = CHANGE_VERBS[head]
+    elif section in SECTIONS_STATING_THE_CHANGE:
+        change_direction = "unsigned"
+    else:
+        raise ValueError(
+            f"reckoner: cannot classify the change stated by label {label!r} "
+            f"under section {section!r}"
+        )
+    return direction, change_direction
+
+
+def strip_notes(text):
+    return re.sub(r"\s*\[note \d+\]", "", text).strip()
+
+
+def sheet_rows(path, want):
+    with zipfile.ZipFile(path) as z:
+        root = ET.fromstring(z.read("content.xml"))
+    for t in root.findall(".//table:table", NS):
+        if t.get(f"{{{TNS}}}name") != want:
+            continue
+        rows = []
+        for r in t.findall("table:table-row", NS):
+            row = []
+            for c in r.findall("table:table-cell", NS):
+                rep = int(c.get(f"{{{TNS}}}number-columns-repeated", "1"))
+                txt = " ".join(
+                    "".join(p.itertext()) for p in c.findall("text:p", NS)
+                ).strip()
+                row.extend([txt] * min(rep, 30))
+            while row and not row[-1]:
+                row.pop()
+            rows.append(row)
+        return rows
+    raise ValueError(f"{path}: sheet {want} not found")
+
+
+def parse_number(text):
+    if text in SKIPPED:
+        return None, "skipped"
+    if text in SUPPRESSED or text.lower() == "neg":
+        return None, "suppressed"
+    cleaned = text.replace(",", "").replace("£", "").replace("%", "")
+    if not re.match(r"^-?\d+(\.\d+)?$", cleaned):
+        return None, "unparsed"
+    return float(cleaned), "ok"
+
+
+def emit(
+    rows,
+    program,
+    metric,
+    subgroup,
+    variant,
+    unit_concept,
+    period,
+    value,
+    status,
+    source_column,
+    extra=None,
+):
+    row = {
+        "source": SOURCE_ID,
+        "country": "UK",
+        "program": program,
+        "metric": metric,
+        "subgroup": subgroup,
+        "variant": variant,
+        "geography": "UK",
+        "unit_concept": unit_concept,
+        "period": period,
+        "value": value,
+        "status": status,
+        "source_column": source_column,
+    }
+    if extra:
+        row.update(extra)
+    rows.append(row)
+
+
+def tax_year(label):
+    """'2023 to 2024 [note 9]' -> '2023-24'."""
+    m = re.match(r"^(\d{4}) to (\d{4})$", strip_notes(label))
+    if not m:
+        return None
+    return f"{m.group(1)}-{m.group(2)[2:]}"
+
+
+def parse_table_2_1(out):
+    rows = sheet_rows(HERE / "raw" / LIABILITIES_FILE, "2_1_IT_payers_by_demographic")
+    header = next(r for r in rows if r and r[0] == "Tax year")
+    cols = []
+    for i, label in enumerate(header[1:], 1):
+        name = strip_notes(label)
+        if name not in T21_SUBGROUPS:
+            raise ValueError(f"2_1: unknown column {name!r}")
+        cols.append((i, T21_SUBGROUPS[name]))
+    for row in rows:
+        period = tax_year(row[0]) if row else None
+        if period is None:
+            continue
+        for i, subgroup in cols:
+            value, status = parse_number(row[i] if i < len(row) else "")
+            if status == "skipped":
+                continue
+            if status == "unparsed":
+                raise ValueError(f"2_1 {period} col {i}: {row[i]!r}")
+            emit(
+                out,
+                "income_tax",
+                "taxpayer_count",
+                subgroup,
+                None,
+                "individuals",
+                period,
+                None if value is None else value * 1000,
+                "suppressed" if value is None else "ok",
+                f"2_1:{subgroup}",
+            )
+
+
+def classify_2_5_column(label):
+    """Header text -> (metric, band_subgroup, scale, unit_concept)."""
+    name = strip_notes(label)
+    m = re.match(r"^Number of (.+) Income Tax payers$", name)
+    if m:
+        return ("taxpayer_count", T25_BANDS[m.group(1)], 1000, "individuals")
+    m = re.match(r"^Income Tax liability for (.+) Income Tax payers$", name)
+    if m:
+        return ("tax_liability", T25_BANDS[m.group(1)], 1e6, "gbp_nominal")
+    fixed = {
+        "Total number of Income Tax payers": (
+            "taxpayer_count",
+            "all_bands",
+            1000,
+            "individuals",
+        ),
+        "Total income": ("total_income", "all_bands", 1e6, "gbp_nominal"),
+        "Total Income Tax liability": (
+            "tax_liability",
+            "all_bands",
+            1e6,
+            "gbp_nominal",
+        ),
+        "Average rate of Income Tax": (
+            "average_tax_rate",
+            "all_bands",
+            0.01,
+            "fraction_of_income",
+        ),
+        "Average amount of Income Tax in £": (
+            "average_tax_amount",
+            "all_bands",
+            1,
+            "gbp_nominal",
+        ),
+    }
+    if name in fixed:
+        return fixed[name]
+    raise ValueError(f"2_5: unknown column {name!r}")
+
+
+def range_slug(text):
+    if text == "All Ranges":
+        return "all_ranges"
+    cleaned = text.replace("£", "").replace(",", "")
+    if cleaned.endswith("+"):
+        return f"lower_limit_{cleaned[:-1]}_plus"
+    return f"lower_limit_{cleaned}"
+
+
+def parse_table_2_5(out):
+    for sheet_year in ("2023-24", "2024-25", "2025-26", "2026-27"):
+        rows = sheet_rows(
+            HERE / "raw" / LIABILITIES_FILE, f"2_5_IT_Liabilities_{sheet_year}"
+        )
+        header = next(r for r in rows if r and r[0].startswith("Range of total income"))
+        cols = [
+            (i, classify_2_5_column(label)) for i, label in enumerate(header[1:], 1)
+        ]
+        for row in rows:
+            first = row[0] if row else ""
+            if not (first.startswith("£") or first == "All Ranges"):
+                continue
+            variant = range_slug(first)
+            for i, (metric, band, scale, unit_concept) in cols:
+                value, status = parse_number(row[i] if i < len(row) else "")
+                if status == "skipped":
+                    continue
+                if status == "unparsed":
+                    raise ValueError(f"2_5 {sheet_year} {first} col {i}: {row[i]!r}")
+                emit(
+                    out,
+                    "income_tax",
+                    metric,
+                    band,
+                    variant,
+                    unit_concept,
+                    sheet_year,
+                    None if value is None else value * scale,
+                    "suppressed" if value is None else "ok",
+                    f"2_5_{sheet_year}:{band}",
+                )
+
+
+def parse_reckoner(out):
+    rows = sheet_rows(HERE / "raw" / RECKONER_FILE, "Publication_Format")
+    header = next(r for r in rows if r and r[0] == "Column1")
+    periods = []
+    for i, label in enumerate(header[1:], 1):
+        m = re.match(
+            r"^Current Estimate, financial year (\d{4}) to (\d{4}), £ million$",
+            label,
+        )
+        if not m:
+            raise ValueError(f"reckoner: unexpected column {label!r}")
+        periods.append((i, f"{m.group(1)}-{m.group(2)[2:]}"))
+    program = None
+    section = None
+    for row in rows[3:]:
+        if not row:
+            continue
+        first = row[0]
+        if len(row) == 1:
+            if first in RECKONER_PROGRAMS:
+                program = RECKONER_PROGRAMS[first]
+                section = first
+            elif first.startswith(("For detailed methodology", "End of worksheet")):
+                program = None
+                section = None
+            else:
+                raise ValueError(f"reckoner: unknown section {first!r}")
+            continue
+        if program is None:
+            raise ValueError(f"reckoner: data row outside a section: {first!r}")
+        direction, change_direction = classify_reckoner_label(first, section)
+        for i, period in periods:
+            value, status = parse_number(row[i] if i < len(row) else "")
+            if status in ("skipped", "unparsed"):
+                raise ValueError(f"reckoner {first!r} {period}: {row[i]!r}")
+            emit(
+                out,
+                program,
+                "revenue_effect",
+                first,
+                None,
+                "gbp_nominal",
+                period,
+                None if value is None else value * 1e6,
+                "suppressed" if value is None else "ok",
+                "reckoner",
+                extra={
+                    "sign_convention": SIGN_CONVENTION,
+                    "direction": direction,
+                    "change_direction": change_direction,
+                },
+            )
+
+
+def run():
+    rows = []
+    parse_table_2_1(rows)
+    parse_table_2_5(rows)
+    parse_reckoner(rows)
+
+    out = OUT_DIR / f"{SOURCE_ID}.json"
+    out.write_text(json.dumps(rows))
+    print(f"{len(rows)} rows -> {out}")
+
+    # --- validation against HMRC's published summary statistics ---
+    def get(metric, subgroup, period, program="income_tax", variant=None):
+        for r in rows:
+            if (
+                r["program"] == program
+                and r["metric"] == metric
+                and r["subgroup"] == subgroup
+                and r["variant"] == variant
+                and r["period"] == period
+            ):
+                return r["value"]
+        raise KeyError((program, metric, subgroup, variant, period))
+
+    checks = [
+        (
+            "2023-24 taxpayers 36.7M",
+            get("taxpayer_count", "total", "2023-24"),
+            36_700_000,
+        ),
+        (
+            "2026-27 taxpayers 40.8M",
+            get("taxpayer_count", "total", "2026-27"),
+            40_800_000,
+        ),
+        (
+            "2026-27 basic rate 31.4M",
+            get("taxpayer_count", "basic_rate", "2026-27"),
+            31_400_000,
+        ),
+        (
+            "2026-27 higher rate 7.70M",
+            get("taxpayer_count", "higher_rate", "2026-27"),
+            7_700_000,
+        ),
+        (
+            "2026-27 additional rate 1.29M",
+            get("taxpayer_count", "additional_rate", "2026-27"),
+            1_290_000,
+        ),
+        (
+            "2026-27 savers rate 415k",
+            get("taxpayer_count", "savers_rate", "2026-27"),
+            415_000,
+        ),
+        (
+            "2023-24 total liability £274bn",
+            get("tax_liability", "all_bands", "2023-24", variant="all_ranges"),
+            274_000_000_000,
+        ),
+        # cross-table: 2.5 all-ranges band counts must equal 2.1 marginal-rate counts
+        (
+            "2.5 basic == 2.1 basic (2026-27)",
+            get("taxpayer_count", "basic_rate", "2026-27", variant="all_ranges"),
+            get("taxpayer_count", "basic_rate", "2026-27"),
+        ),
+        (
+            "reckoner: basic rate 1p 2026-27 £6.9bn",
+            get("revenue_effect", "Change basic rate by 1p", "2026-27"),
+            6_900_000_000,
+        ),
+        (
+            "reckoner: employer NICs 1pp 2026-27 £11.15bn",
+            get(
+                "revenue_effect",
+                "Change Class 1 employer rate by 1 percentage point",
+                "2026-27",
+                program="national_insurance",
+            ),
+            11_150_000_000,
+        ),
+    ]
+    failed = False
+    for label, got, want in checks:
+        ok = got is not None and want is not None and abs(got - want) < 1e-6
+        print(f"  {'OK ' if ok else 'FAIL'} {label}: {got}")
+        failed = failed or not ok
+    print(f"  suppressed cells: {sum(r['status'] == 'suppressed' for r in rows)}")
+    census = {}
+    for r in rows:
+        if r["metric"] == "revenue_effect":
+            key = (r["direction"], r["change_direction"])
+            census[key] = census.get(key, 0) + 1
+    for key in sorted(census):
+        print(f"  direction {key[0]} / {key[1]}: {census[key]}")
+    if failed:
+        raise SystemExit(1)
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    run()
diff --git a/sources/hmrc-personal-tax/annotations.json b/sources/hmrc-personal-tax/annotations.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..6799fc2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/hmrc-personal-tax/annotations.json
@@ -0,0 +1,65 @@
+{
+  "_schema": {
+    "applies_to": "matcher on {program, metrics, subgroups}; null = any",
+    "severity": "period | definitional | construction | caution | gap",
+    "basis": "traceability: the bulletin supporting documentation, the ready-reckoner bulletin, a GitHub issue, or a measured diagnostic in this repo's data"
+  },
+  "annotations": [
+    {
+      "id": "reckoner-baseline-key",
+      "applies_to": {"program": null, "metrics": ["revenue_effect"]},
+      "severity": "definitional",
+      "text": "Ready-reckoner rows are reform deltas, not levels: direct effects against HMRC's indexed baseline under the OBR Spring Statement 2025 forecast, implemented April 2026. A PE counterpart must run the same nominal change against a matching indexed baseline and state the baseline explicitly (#13). The asymmetric (cost)/(yield) row pairs are distinct claims — behavioural response differs by direction — and must not be averaged.",
+      "basis": "Direct effects bulletin June 2025; scorecard issue #13"
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "reckoner-sign-convention",
+      "applies_to": {"program": null, "metrics": ["revenue_effect"]},
+      "severity": "definitional",
+      "text": "These values are NOT (reform − baseline). HMRC publishes them as magnitudes with the direction carried in the English label, so a cost and a yield can both be positive: 'Increase additional rate by 1p (yield)' is +£145m and 'Decrease additional rate by 1p (cost)' is +£175m in 2026-27. Every row therefore carries sign_convention='magnitude_with_direction_in_label' plus direction (cost | yield | stated_change) and change_direction (increase | decrease | unsigned), both read off the verbatim label. Comparison constraint: orient the PE counterpart using direction before differencing — a signed (reform − baseline) run returns −£175m for that cost row and reads as a 100% divergence, while an abs() comparison hides the error by matching everything. 'stated_change' means the label states no cost/yield direction; the figure is the effect of the change the label describes, and for the plain 'Change X by 1p' form it applies in either direction. Do not read an unmarked 'Increase …' as a yield — HMRC publishes several negative (e.g. 'Increase lower Capital Gains Tax rate by 10 percentage points' is −£130m in 2026-27, and two (Yield)-marked SDLT rows are negative too). Negatives are HMRC's own published signs and are carried through unflipped.",
+      "basis": "Direct effects bulletin June 2025, Tables 1-2 row labels; measured over data/externals/hmrc-personal-tax.json (225 revenue_effect rows, 28 negative)"
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "reckoner-behavioural",
+      "applies_to": {"program": null, "metrics": ["revenue_effect"]},
+      "severity": "construction",
+      "text": "Direct effects include HMRC's specified behavioural adjustments (e.g. taxable income elasticities for additional-rate changes), not pure static costings. A static PE run is the right first counterpart but is expected to exceed HMRC yield estimates where elasticities bite; classify that wedge as construction, not model error. The campaign's hmrc_reckoner_t2 family already carries PE static counterparts for Table 2 rows.",
+      "basis": "Direct effects bulletin June 2025 methodology; sources/campaign-20260802/uk/hmrc_reckoner_t2.jsonl"
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "spi-projection-vintage",
+      "applies_to": {"program": "income_tax", "metrics": ["taxpayer_count", "tax_liability", "total_income", "average_tax_rate", "average_tax_amount"]},
+      "severity": "period",
+      "text": "2023-24 is the latest SPI outturn year; 2024-25 to 2026-27 are HMRC projections on OBR-consistent economic assumptions, not measurements. Score projected years as forecast-vs-forecast (both models project), and expect revisions when the next SPI lands.",
+      "basis": "Bulletin supporting documentation, July 2026 edition"
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "taxpayer-concept",
+      "applies_to": {"program": "income_tax", "metrics": ["taxpayer_count"]},
+      "severity": "definitional",
+      "text": "An Income Tax payer is an individual with positive liability after allowances and reliefs; marginal-rate bands follow HMRC's classification (savers rate = savings/dividend-rate payers; Scottish rates fold into the nearest rUK band). The PE counterpart is individuals with income_tax > 0, banded by marginal rate on the same definitions — not adults, not benefit units.",
+      "basis": "Table 2.1 footnotes"
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "liability-not-receipts",
+      "applies_to": {"program": "income_tax", "metrics": ["tax_liability"]},
+      "severity": "definitional",
+      "text": "Liabilities are accrued amounts for the tax year, not cash receipts (HMRC receipts statistics and OBR receipts forecasts differ by timing and non-SPI elements). Compare PE income tax liability aggregates against these rows, never against receipts outturns.",
+      "basis": "Bulletin supporting documentation, liabilities-vs-receipts section"
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "rounding-suppression",
+      "applies_to": {"program": null, "metrics": null},
+      "severity": "caution",
+      "text": "Counts are rounded (thousands at varying precision), liabilities to £ millions; '[no estimate]' marks small-sample cells and 'Neg' marks reckoner effects that round to zero — both carried as suppressed. Table 2.1 pre-2009-10 years reflect historical band structures ('[not applicable]' cells are skipped, not suppressed).",
+      "basis": "Table notes; reckoner bulletin"
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "scope-not-scotland",
+      "applies_to": {"program": "income_tax", "metrics": null},
+      "severity": "caution",
+      "text": "UK-total rows include Scottish and Welsh taxpayers under their devolved rates. PE UK models devolved income tax; comparisons are UK-total here, and per-country rows wait on Table 2.2 emission.",
+      "basis": "Bulletin supporting documentation"
+    }
+  ]
+}
diff --git a/sources/hmrc-personal-tax/raw/income_tax_liabilities_tables_2_1_to_2_6.ods b/sources/hmrc-personal-tax/raw/income_tax_liabilities_tables_2_1_to_2_6.ods
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..c47d629
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diff --git a/sources/hmrc-personal-tax/raw/june_2025_tax_ready_reckoner.ods b/sources/hmrc-personal-tax/raw/june_2025_tax_ready_reckoner.ods
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..2ca16b0
Binary files /dev/null and b/sources/hmrc-personal-tax/raw/june_2025_tax_ready_reckoner.ods differ
diff --git a/sources/hmrc-personal-tax/source.json b/sources/hmrc-personal-tax/source.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..56680f0
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/hmrc-personal-tax/source.json
@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@
+{
+  "id": "hmrc-personal-tax",
+  "name": "HMRC — Income Tax liabilities statistics + tax ready reckoner",
+  "organization": "HM Revenue & Customs",
+  "country": "UK",
+  "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/income-tax-liabilities-statistics-tax-year-2023-to-2024-to-tax-year-2026-to-2027",
+  "data_urls": [
+    "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a5a49b47eb057103bd946a4/Collated_Income_Tax_liabilities_statistics_tables_-_2.1_to_2.6.ods",
+    "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/68552862b46781eacfd71d71/June_2025_TRR_ODS__1_.ods"
+  ],
+  "published": "liabilities tables 2026-07-15; ready reckoner June 2025 edition (2025-06-24 — still current: the scheduled July 2026 update was deferred by HMRC pending an assumptions review)",
+  "fetched": "2026-08-14",
+  "model": {
+    "name": "Survey of Personal Incomes (SPI) + HMRC Personal Tax Model",
+    "open_source": false,
+    "method": "Liabilities tables: individual-level Income Tax estimated on the SPI, a stratified sample of HMRC PAYE/Self Assessment/repayment administrative records; latest outturn year is SPI-based and later years are projections consistent with OBR economic assumptions. Ready reckoner: direct (static plus specified behavioural) effects of illustrative changes against the indexed baseline in HMRC's personal tax model, consistent with the OBR Spring Statement 2025 forecast, implemented April 2026.",
+    "method_basis": "Bulletin supporting documentation (liabilities); Direct effects of illustrative tax changes bulletin June 2025"
+  },
+  "baseline_key": {
+    "liabilities_tables": "SPI 2023-24 outturn; 2024-25 to 2026-27 projected on OBR-consistent assumptions (July 2026 edition)",
+    "ready_reckoner": "HMRC indexed baseline, OBR Spring Statement 2025 forecast, April 2026 implementation"
+  },
+  "period": "Table 2.1: 1990-91 to 2026-27; Table 2.5: 2023-24 to 2026-27; ready reckoner: 2026-27 to 2028-29",
+  "programs": [
+    "income_tax", "national_insurance", "child_benefit", "corporation_tax",
+    "capital_gains_tax", "inheritance_tax", "duties", "vehicle_excise_duty",
+    "air_passenger_duty", "vat", "insurance_premium_tax", "stamp_duty_land_tax"
+  ],
+  "geographies": "UK (tables 2.2 region/country breakdowns not yet emitted)",
+  "coverage_note": "This build emits Table 2.1 (payers by marginal rate/sex/age), Table 2.5 (counts and liabilities by income range x band), and the full ready reckoner. Tables 2.2/2.4/2.6 are vendored in the same raw file for follow-up.",
+  "diagnosis_upstream": "HMRC's personal tax model is closed-source; divergence diagnoses classified as external-model issues become a comparison memo, not an upstream PR."
+}
diff --git a/tests/test_hmrc_adapter.py b/tests/test_hmrc_adapter.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..593f6d2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/tests/test_hmrc_adapter.py
@@ -0,0 +1,145 @@
+"""HMRC personal tax externals: the ready-reckoner sign convention.
+
+CI never runs sources/, so the adapter's own inline checks are invisible here.
+These read the committed extract instead.
+
+The defect these guard: HMRC ready-reckoner rows are magnitudes with the
+direction carried only in English prose, so a cost row and a yield row are both
+positive. A PE counterpart computed as (reform - baseline) returns the cost with
+the opposite sign and reads as a 100% divergence -- or matches under any abs()
+comparison. The convention has to be on the row, machine-readable.
+"""
+
+import json
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import pytest
+
+ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent
+EXTERNAL = ROOT / "data" / "externals" / "hmrc-personal-tax.json"
+
+SIGN_CONVENTION = "magnitude_with_direction_in_label"
+DIRECTIONS = {"cost", "yield", "stated_change"}
+CHANGE_DIRECTIONS = {"increase", "decrease", "unsigned"}
+CONVENTION_KEYS = {"sign_convention", "direction", "change_direction"}
+
+
+def load():
+    if not EXTERNAL.exists():
+        pytest.skip(f"{EXTERNAL} not built")
+    return json.loads(EXTERNAL.read_text())
+
+
+def reckoner(rows):
+    return [r for r in rows if r["metric"] == "revenue_effect"]
+
+
+def test_row_count_pinned():
+    rows = load()
+    assert len(rows) == 1213
+    assert len(reckoner(rows)) == 225
+
+
+def test_every_reckoner_row_carries_a_classified_convention():
+    rows = reckoner(load())
+    assert rows
+    for row in rows:
+        assert row["sign_convention"] == SIGN_CONVENTION, row["subgroup"]
+        assert row["direction"] in DIRECTIONS, row["subgroup"]
+        assert row["change_direction"] in CHANGE_DIRECTIONS, row["subgroup"]
+
+
+def test_direction_matches_the_verbatim_label():
+    """Direction is read off the label, never guessed from the value's sign."""
+    for row in reckoner(load()):
+        label = row["subgroup"]
+        lowered = label.lower()
+        if lowered.endswith("(cost)"):
+            assert row["direction"] == "cost", label
+        elif lowered.endswith("(yield)"):
+            assert row["direction"] == "yield", label
+        else:
+            # No marker in the label -> no direction may be invented for it.
+            assert row["direction"] == "stated_change", label
+        if label.startswith(("Increase ", "Raise ")):
+            assert row["change_direction"] == "increase", label
+        elif label.startswith(("Decrease ", "Cut ")):
+            assert row["change_direction"] == "decrease", label
+        else:
+            assert row["change_direction"] == "unsigned", label
+
+
+def test_additional_rate_cost_and_yield_are_both_positive_but_distinguishable():
+    """The exact ambiguity that motivated this: same sign, opposite meaning."""
+    rows = reckoner(load())
+    yield_row = next(
+        r
+        for r in rows
+        if r["subgroup"] == "Increase additional rate by 1p (yield)"
+        and r["period"] == "2026-27"
+    )
+    cost_row = next(
+        r
+        for r in rows
+        if r["subgroup"] == "Decrease additional rate by 1p (cost)"
+        and r["period"] == "2026-27"
+    )
+    # Values are HMRC's, unflipped: both positive, which is the trap.
+    assert yield_row["value"] == 145_000_000
+    assert cost_row["value"] == 175_000_000
+    assert yield_row["value"] > 0 and cost_row["value"] > 0
+    # Sign alone cannot separate them; the direction field must.
+    assert yield_row["direction"] == "yield"
+    assert cost_row["direction"] == "cost"
+    assert yield_row["direction"] != cost_row["direction"]
+    assert yield_row["change_direction"] == "increase"
+    assert cost_row["change_direction"] == "decrease"
+
+
+def test_unmarked_increase_rows_are_not_called_yields():
+    """HMRC publishes revenue-losing 'Increase ...' rows; no direction invented."""
+    rows = reckoner(load())
+    label = "Increase lower Capital Gains Tax rate by 10 percentage points"
+    cgt = next(r for r in rows if r["subgroup"] == label and r["period"] == "2026-27")
+    assert cgt["value"] == -130_000_000  # genuine negative, preserved
+    assert cgt["direction"] == "stated_change"
+    assert cgt["change_direction"] == "increase"
+
+
+def test_plain_change_rows_state_no_direction():
+    rows = reckoner(load())
+    basic = next(
+        r
+        for r in rows
+        if r["subgroup"] == "Change basic rate by 1p" and r["period"] == "2026-27"
+    )
+    assert basic["value"] == 6_900_000_000
+    assert basic["direction"] == "stated_change"
+    assert basic["change_direction"] == "unsigned"
+
+
+def test_levels_rows_are_untouched():
+    rows = load()
+    levels = [r for r in rows if r["metric"] != "revenue_effect"]
+    assert len(levels) == 988
+    for row in levels:
+        assert not (CONVENTION_KEYS & set(row)), row["metric"]
+    total = next(
+        r
+        for r in levels
+        if r["metric"] == "taxpayer_count"
+        and r["subgroup"] == "total"
+        and r["period"] == "2026-27"
+    )
+    assert total["value"] == 40_800_000
+
+
+def test_annotation_states_the_convention_as_a_comparison_constraint():
+    path = ROOT / "sources" / "hmrc-personal-tax" / "annotations.json"
+    annotations = json.loads(path.read_text())["annotations"]
+    applicable = [
+        a for a in annotations if "revenue_effect" in (a["applies_to"]["metrics"] or [])
+    ]
+    text = " ".join(a["text"] for a in applicable)
+    assert SIGN_CONVENTION in text
+    assert "direction" in text