diff --git a/app/public/data/lanes.json b/app/public/data/lanes.json
index 51fdf89..18593bd 100644
--- a/app/public/data/lanes.json
+++ b/app/public/data/lanes.json
@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@
   "stage": "registered | cataloged | ingested | computed | diagnosing | published | regressed",
   "note": "Repo-committed status feed (issue #7); graduate to Supabase when lane count makes commits noisy. Every lane writes its transition here."
  },
- "updated": "2026-08-06",
+ "updated": "2026-08-14",
  "lanes": [
   {
    "id": "urban-sotsn",
@@ -140,50 +140,50 @@
    "source": "DWP",
    "area": "UK income-related benefits take-up",
    "mode": 1,
-   "stage": "registered",
+   "stage": "ingested",
    "running": false,
-   "updated": "2026-08-01",
-   "note": "Canonical UK take-up publication (#3)"
+   "updated": "2026-08-02",
+   "note": "805 take-up claims with bounds (609 PC rows seed_source \u2014 pe-uk takeup.yaml cites this series; HB rows held_out vs PE takeup=1, policyengine-uk#1813); 102 BECL forecast rows (30 expenditure lines consumed_as_target via OBR 4.9); 102 BECL outturn rows routed to Ledger staging"
   },
   {
    "id": "hbai-poverty",
    "source": "DWP HBAI",
    "area": "UK poverty rates",
    "mode": 1,
-   "stage": "registered",
+   "stage": "ingested",
    "running": false,
-   "updated": "2026-08-01",
-   "note": "#3"
+   "updated": "2026-08-02",
+   "note": "1040 HBAI claims (FYE 1995-2025, relative+absolute \u00d7 BHC+AHC, rates+counts; FYE-2025 + admin-linked FYE-2024 edition pair staged \u2014 the ~2pp methodology-gap diagnosis seed); permanent poverty holdout"
   },
   {
    "id": "hmrc-personal-tax",
    "source": "HMRC",
    "area": "UK personal tax statistics",
    "mode": 1,
-   "stage": "registered",
+   "stage": "ingested",
    "running": false,
-   "updated": "2026-08-01",
-   "note": "#3"
+   "updated": "2026-08-02",
+   "note": "225 ready-reckoner claims (policy worlds per line, FY2026-27+, behavioural per HMRC notes \u2014 the campaign reckoner join surface) + 762 SPI-based projections (726 seed_source via the shared SPI 2023-24 base, 36 whole-population liability totals consumed-class); 1855 outturn/provisional admin rows routed to Ledger staging"
   },
   {
    "id": "obr-welfare",
    "source": "OBR",
    "area": "welfare trends / EFO baselines",
    "mode": 1,
-   "stage": "registered",
+   "stage": "ingested",
    "running": false,
-   "updated": "2026-08-01",
-   "note": "#3"
+   "updated": "2026-08-02",
+   "note": "1121 EFO Mar-2026 claims (receipts 3.4/3.8, welfare 4.9/4.11, threshold analysis 3.17-3.19); 150 consumed_as_target (exact pe-uk-data target lines, targets/sources/obr.py); 133 outturn rows routed to Ledger staging"
   },
   {
    "id": "ukmod-stats",
    "source": "UKMOD",
    "area": "published statistics",
    "mode": 1,
-   "stage": "registered",
+   "stage": "ingested",
    "running": false,
-   "updated": "2026-08-01",
-   "note": "#3"
+   "updated": "2026-08-02",
+   "note": "1392 UKMOD claims \u2014 Country Report 2023-2030 validation block (simulated/official/input-data/HBAI series side by side; take-up priors frozen since 2021 per their own \u00a74.3 warning) + CeMPA 3/26 AB2025 package assessment (209 reform-keyed rows); 300 JRF claims (unrounded AHC headline series, persistent poverty, MIS-adjacent thresholds); 88 MIS weekly-budget cells deliberately dropped (focus-group budget standards, not model-checkable \u2014 recoverable in vendored staging)"
   },
   {
    "id": "jct-reform-scores",
@@ -304,6 +304,46 @@
    "running": false,
    "updated": "2026-08-04",
    "note": "205 claims, 675 per-release results (5 releases, 180 attached to harvest claims); 11 unscoreable rows skipped"
+  },
+  {
+   "id": "obr-measures",
+   "source": "OBR",
+   "area": "policy measures database (1970\u2192)",
+   "mode": 2,
+   "stage": "ingested",
+   "running": false,
+   "updated": "2026-08-02",
+   "note": "24304 policy-measures-database claims (84 fiscal events since 1970, reform-keyed per measure title, positive_gain_to_exchequer verbatim)"
+  },
+  {
+   "id": "hmt-costings",
+   "source": "HM Treasury",
+   "area": "fiscal-event scorecards + DA",
+   "mode": 2,
+   "stage": "ingested",
+   "running": false,
+   "updated": "2026-08-02",
+   "note": "1218 OBR-certified scorecard costings (AB2024 5.1 / B2025 4.1 / SS2025 3.1; exchequer_impact \u2014 Tax/Spend heads mix by design; 31 suppressed cells verbatim) + 150 IGOTM decile medians (annex 2.C); B2025 two-child measure title embeds the government's 450k-children poverty claim \u2014 pentagon leg"
+  },
+  {
+   "id": "ifs-taxben",
+   "source": "IFS TAXBEN",
+   "area": "poverty + benefit options",
+   "mode": 2,
+   "stage": "ingested",
+   "running": false,
+   "updated": "2026-08-02",
+   "note": "268 TAXBEN claims: absolute-AHC child-poverty series, Green-Budget-2025 options block (164 reform-keyed rows incl. the \u2212540k steady-state two-child-limit leg of the pentagon), threshold-freeze revenue rows; options baseline = registered ifs_2cl_fp_removal_rolled_out world; TAXBEN is entitlements-basis (full take-up) \u2014 registry axis on every poverty comparison"
+  },
+  {
+   "id": "rf-outlook",
+   "source": "Resolution Foundation",
+   "area": "living standards outlook + Budget analysis",
+   "mode": 2,
+   "stage": "ingested",
+   "running": false,
+   "updated": "2026-08-02",
+   "note": "70 Resolution Foundation claims (IPPR Tax Benefit Model on FRS/HBAI 2023-24): LSO 2026 poverty projections incl. the \u2212420k two-child pentagon leg, Budget-2025 decile block, April-2026 uprating set (11 parameter-check rows \u2014 campaign uprating_check joins here); 26 reform-keyed rows; 1 price-index-only row dropped (out of tax/benefit scope, tallied)"
   }
  ]
-}
\ No newline at end of file
+}
diff --git a/app/public/data/populations.json b/app/public/data/populations.json
index af84503..712ae33 100644
--- a/app/public/data/populations.json
+++ b/app/public/data/populations.json
@@ -1,8 +1,8 @@
 {
- "built": "2026-08-06",
+ "built": "2026-08-14",
  "note": "Non-Urban populations exported from scorecard.db: the populace reform-validation registry (issue #20) plus the compute campaign's attached comparisons (TPC/CPSP/PWBM/CBO/JCT). Statuses and calibration relationships are verbatim; nothing here is a pass/fail grade.",
  "summary": {
-  "claims": 270,
+  "claims": 335,
   "multi_release_claims": 127,
   "by_source": {
    "az_admin": 1,
@@ -18,8 +18,10 @@
    "ct_fiscal_note": 3,
    "dc_admin": 1,
    "de_admin": 1,
+   "dwp": 9,
    "ga_fiscal_note": 1,
    "hi_admin": 1,
+   "hmrc": 23,
    "ia_admin": 1,
    "ia_fiscal_note": 1,
    "id_admin": 2,
@@ -46,15 +48,18 @@
    "nj_admin": 2,
    "nm_admin": 2,
    "ny_admin": 2,
+   "obr": 24,
    "oh_admin": 1,
    "ok_admin": 1,
    "ok_fiscal_note": 1,
    "or_admin": 2,
    "pwbm": 2,
+   "resolution_foundation": 8,
    "ri_admin": 1,
    "sc_admin": 1,
    "tpc": 10,
    "treasury": 1,
+   "ukmod": 1,
    "ut_admin": 1,
    "va_admin": 1,
    "vt_admin": 2,
@@ -62,9 +67,10 @@
    "wi_admin": 1
   },
   "by_latest_status": {
-   "comparable": 37,
-   "concept_mismatch": 2,
-   "constructed": 231
+   "comparable": 41,
+   "concept_mismatch": 4,
+   "constructed": 281,
+   "not_computed": 9
   }
  },
  "rows": [
@@ -6702,7 +6708,11 @@
      ]
     }
    ],
-   "diagnosis": null
+   "diagnosis": {
+    "class": "methodological_difference",
+    "rationale": "Level comparison vs an ASEC-anchored series: Populace CALCULATES benefits and recalibrates where the ASEC carries reported attributes, and treats thresholds differently (descriptive decomposition in sources/campaign-20260802/SPM_NOTES.md). A named sub-channel: Early Head Start at engine-default 100% take-up flows inside household_net_income (populace#593). Change metrics between CTC worlds are the same-assumptions surface and are directionally consistent.",
+    "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/populace/issues/593"
+   }
   },
   {
    "claim_id": "6776df1ea796030cbdc6",
@@ -6765,7 +6775,11 @@
      ]
     }
    ],
-   "diagnosis": null
+   "diagnosis": {
+    "class": "methodological_difference",
+    "rationale": "Level comparison vs an ASEC-anchored series: Populace CALCULATES benefits and recalibrates where the ASEC carries reported attributes, and treats thresholds differently (descriptive decomposition in sources/campaign-20260802/SPM_NOTES.md). A named sub-channel: Early Head Start at engine-default 100% take-up flows inside household_net_income (populace#593). Change metrics between CTC worlds are the same-assumptions surface and are directionally consistent.",
+    "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/populace/issues/593"
+   }
   },
   {
    "claim_id": "17357fa57e38729ecdcd",
@@ -6824,7 +6838,11 @@
      ]
     }
    ],
-   "diagnosis": null
+   "diagnosis": {
+    "class": "methodological_difference",
+    "rationale": "Level comparison vs an ASEC-anchored series: Populace CALCULATES benefits and recalibrates where the ASEC carries reported attributes, and treats thresholds differently (descriptive decomposition in sources/campaign-20260802/SPM_NOTES.md). A named sub-channel: Early Head Start at engine-default 100% take-up flows inside household_net_income (populace#593). Change metrics between CTC worlds are the same-assumptions surface and are directionally consistent.",
+    "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/populace/issues/593"
+   }
   },
   {
    "claim_id": "984ab8f1c0b001d4aa5c",
@@ -6883,7 +6901,11 @@
      ]
     }
    ],
-   "diagnosis": null
+   "diagnosis": {
+    "class": "methodological_difference",
+    "rationale": "Level comparison vs an ASEC-anchored series: Populace CALCULATES benefits and recalibrates where the ASEC carries reported attributes, and treats thresholds differently (descriptive decomposition in sources/campaign-20260802/SPM_NOTES.md). A named sub-channel: Early Head Start at engine-default 100% take-up flows inside household_net_income (populace#593). Change metrics between CTC worlds are the same-assumptions surface and are directionally consistent.",
+    "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/populace/issues/593"
+   }
   },
   {
    "claim_id": "1e71ccf56dcae8de7a23",
@@ -6944,7 +6966,11 @@
      ]
     }
    ],
-   "diagnosis": null
+   "diagnosis": {
+    "class": "methodological_difference",
+    "rationale": "Level comparison vs an ASEC-anchored series: Populace CALCULATES benefits and recalibrates where the ASEC carries reported attributes, and treats thresholds differently (descriptive decomposition in sources/campaign-20260802/SPM_NOTES.md). A named sub-channel: Early Head Start at engine-default 100% take-up flows inside household_net_income (populace#593). Change metrics between CTC worlds are the same-assumptions surface and are directionally consistent.",
+    "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/populace/issues/593"
+   }
   },
   {
    "claim_id": "fd02127839e40294e7a5",
@@ -7005,7 +7031,11 @@
      ]
     }
    ],
-   "diagnosis": null
+   "diagnosis": {
+    "class": "methodological_difference",
+    "rationale": "Level comparison vs an ASEC-anchored series: Populace CALCULATES benefits and recalibrates where the ASEC carries reported attributes, and treats thresholds differently (descriptive decomposition in sources/campaign-20260802/SPM_NOTES.md). A named sub-channel: Early Head Start at engine-default 100% take-up flows inside household_net_income (populace#593). Change metrics between CTC worlds are the same-assumptions surface and are directionally consistent.",
+    "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/populace/issues/593"
+   }
   },
   {
    "claim_id": "05e88b52036c2668389d",
@@ -7064,7 +7094,11 @@
      ]
     }
    ],
-   "diagnosis": null
+   "diagnosis": {
+    "class": "methodological_difference",
+    "rationale": "Level comparison vs an ASEC-anchored series: Populace CALCULATES benefits and recalibrates where the ASEC carries reported attributes, and treats thresholds differently (descriptive decomposition in sources/campaign-20260802/SPM_NOTES.md). A named sub-channel: Early Head Start at engine-default 100% take-up flows inside household_net_income (populace#593). Change metrics between CTC worlds are the same-assumptions surface and are directionally consistent.",
+    "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/populace/issues/593"
+   }
   },
   {
    "claim_id": "e54aad0412968c828eba",
@@ -7123,7 +7157,11 @@
      ]
     }
    ],
-   "diagnosis": null
+   "diagnosis": {
+    "class": "methodological_difference",
+    "rationale": "Level comparison vs an ASEC-anchored series: Populace CALCULATES benefits and recalibrates where the ASEC carries reported attributes, and treats thresholds differently (descriptive decomposition in sources/campaign-20260802/SPM_NOTES.md). A named sub-channel: Early Head Start at engine-default 100% take-up flows inside household_net_income (populace#593). Change metrics between CTC worlds are the same-assumptions surface and are directionally consistent.",
+    "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/populace/issues/593"
+   }
   },
   {
    "claim_id": "dbb34965f41514214b05",
@@ -7518,6 +7556,541 @@
    ],
    "diagnosis": null
   },
+  {
+   "claim_id": "07aa4f547552c96187bb",
+   "source": "dwp",
+   "source_column": "Disability benefits | Attendance Allowance | 2025/26 forecast",
+   "name": "Benefit expenditure and caseload tables 2026: Outturn and forecast tables, Spring Forecast 2026",
+   "window": "",
+   "publication_title": "Benefit expenditure and caseload tables 2026: Outturn and forecast tables, Spring Forecast 2026",
+   "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/benefit-expenditure-and-caseload-tables-2026",
+   "metric": "benefit_cost",
+   "unit_concept": "gbp",
+   "value_kind": "gbp",
+   "period": 2025,
+   "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
+   "period_start": null,
+   "period_end": null,
+   "geography": "england_wales",
+   "program": "attendance_allowance",
+   "conditions": {
+    "basis": "forecast",
+    "fy": "2025-26",
+    "geography": "england_wales",
+    "geography_note": "England and Wales only from FY 2020/21 (Scottish devolution of disability benefits 1 April 2020; BECL Notes tab)",
+    "program": "attendance_allowance"
+   },
+   "reform_framework": "baseline",
+   "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849",
+   "external_value": 8497187075.07,
+   "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target",
+   "latest": {
+    "value": 4733056192.259981,
+    "status": "constructed",
+    "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+    "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+    "construction": "attendance_allowance total",
+    "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+    "annotations": [
+     "OBR/DWP fiscal year 2026-27 vs PE calendar 2026 (named delta); receipts/expenditure cash vs PE accrual entitlement/liability (named delta); geography england_wales vs PE UK (named delta)",
+     "claim describes FY starting 2025, not the runner's nominal 2026 \u2014 the campaign selected DWP rows by the staged end-year ints (PE CY2026 vs this FY, named)"
+    ],
+    "ratio": 0.5570144743719192,
+    "delta": -3764130882.8100185
+   },
+   "results": [
+    {
+     "value": 4733056192.259981,
+     "status": "constructed",
+     "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+     "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+     "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+     "construction": "attendance_allowance total",
+     "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+     "annotations": [
+      "OBR/DWP fiscal year 2026-27 vs PE calendar 2026 (named delta); receipts/expenditure cash vs PE accrual entitlement/liability (named delta); geography england_wales vs PE UK (named delta)",
+      "claim describes FY starting 2025, not the runner's nominal 2026 \u2014 the campaign selected DWP rows by the staged end-year ints (PE CY2026 vs this FY, named)"
+     ]
+    }
+   ],
+   "diagnosis": null
+  },
+  {
+   "claim_id": "d55bc50c6ad4af550186",
+   "source": "dwp",
+   "source_column": "Disability benefits | Disability Living Allowance | 2025/26 forecast",
+   "name": "Benefit expenditure and caseload tables 2026: Outturn and forecast tables, Spring Forecast 2026",
+   "window": "",
+   "publication_title": "Benefit expenditure and caseload tables 2026: Outturn and forecast tables, Spring Forecast 2026",
+   "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/benefit-expenditure-and-caseload-tables-2026",
+   "metric": "benefit_cost",
+   "unit_concept": "gbp",
+   "value_kind": "gbp",
+   "period": 2025,
+   "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
+   "period_start": null,
+   "period_end": null,
+   "geography": "england_wales",
+   "program": "dla",
+   "conditions": {
+    "basis": "forecast",
+    "fy": "2025-26",
+    "geography": "england_wales",
+    "geography_note": "England and Wales only from FY 2020/21 (Scottish devolution of disability benefits 1 April 2020; BECL Notes tab)",
+    "program": "dla"
+   },
+   "reform_framework": "baseline",
+   "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849",
+   "external_value": 8289471895.17,
+   "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
+   "latest": {
+    "value": 6342775060.054455,
+    "status": "constructed",
+    "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+    "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+    "construction": "dla total",
+    "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+    "annotations": [
+     "OBR/DWP fiscal year 2026-27 vs PE calendar 2026 (named delta); receipts/expenditure cash vs PE accrual entitlement/liability (named delta); geography england_wales vs PE UK (named delta)",
+     "claim describes FY starting 2025, not the runner's nominal 2026 \u2014 the campaign selected DWP rows by the staged end-year ints (PE CY2026 vs this FY, named)"
+    ],
+    "ratio": 0.7651603311123087,
+    "delta": -1946696835.1155453
+   },
+   "results": [
+    {
+     "value": 6342775060.054455,
+     "status": "constructed",
+     "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+     "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+     "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+     "construction": "dla total",
+     "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+     "annotations": [
+      "OBR/DWP fiscal year 2026-27 vs PE calendar 2026 (named delta); receipts/expenditure cash vs PE accrual entitlement/liability (named delta); geography england_wales vs PE UK (named delta)",
+      "claim describes FY starting 2025, not the runner's nominal 2026 \u2014 the campaign selected DWP rows by the staged end-year ints (PE CY2026 vs this FY, named)"
+     ]
+    }
+   ],
+   "diagnosis": null
+  },
+  {
+   "claim_id": "5387c2fad1e5b4444914",
+   "source": "dwp",
+   "source_column": "Disability benefits | Personal Independence Payment | 2025/26 forecast",
+   "name": "Benefit expenditure and caseload tables 2026: Outturn and forecast tables, Spring Forecast 2026",
+   "window": "",
+   "publication_title": "Benefit expenditure and caseload tables 2026: Outturn and forecast tables, Spring Forecast 2026",
+   "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/benefit-expenditure-and-caseload-tables-2026",
+   "metric": "benefit_cost",
+   "unit_concept": "gbp",
+   "value_kind": "gbp",
+   "period": 2025,
+   "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
+   "period_start": null,
+   "period_end": null,
+   "geography": "england_wales",
+   "program": "pip",
+   "conditions": {
+    "basis": "forecast",
+    "fy": "2025-26",
+    "geography": "england_wales",
+    "geography_note": "England and Wales only from FY 2020/21 (Scottish devolution of disability benefits 1 April 2020; BECL Notes tab)",
+    "program": "pip"
+   },
+   "reform_framework": "baseline",
+   "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849",
+   "external_value": 28542217375.36,
+   "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
+   "latest": {
+    "value": 20593016304.099655,
+    "status": "constructed",
+    "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+    "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+    "construction": "pip total",
+    "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+    "annotations": [
+     "OBR/DWP fiscal year 2026-27 vs PE calendar 2026 (named delta); receipts/expenditure cash vs PE accrual entitlement/liability (named delta); geography england_wales vs PE UK (named delta)",
+     "claim describes FY starting 2025, not the runner's nominal 2026 \u2014 the campaign selected DWP rows by the staged end-year ints (PE CY2026 vs this FY, named)"
+    ],
+    "ratio": 0.7214932194398199,
+    "delta": -7949201071.260345
+   },
+   "results": [
+    {
+     "value": 20593016304.099655,
+     "status": "constructed",
+     "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+     "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+     "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+     "construction": "pip total",
+     "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+     "annotations": [
+      "OBR/DWP fiscal year 2026-27 vs PE calendar 2026 (named delta); receipts/expenditure cash vs PE accrual entitlement/liability (named delta); geography england_wales vs PE UK (named delta)",
+      "claim describes FY starting 2025, not the runner's nominal 2026 \u2014 the campaign selected DWP rows by the staged end-year ints (PE CY2026 vs this FY, named)"
+     ]
+    }
+   ],
+   "diagnosis": null
+  },
+  {
+   "claim_id": "e71251feb8f2fa3e8655",
+   "source": "dwp",
+   "source_column": "Non-DWP Welfare | Child Benefit, One Parent Benefit & Guardian's Allowance | 2025/26 forecast",
+   "name": "Benefit expenditure and caseload tables 2026: Outturn and forecast tables, Spring Forecast 2026",
+   "window": "",
+   "publication_title": "Benefit expenditure and caseload tables 2026: Outturn and forecast tables, Spring Forecast 2026",
+   "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/benefit-expenditure-and-caseload-tables-2026",
+   "metric": "benefit_cost",
+   "unit_concept": "gbp",
+   "value_kind": "gbp",
+   "period": 2025,
+   "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
+   "period_start": null,
+   "period_end": null,
+   "geography": "GB",
+   "program": "child_benefit",
+   "conditions": {
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@@ -7680,833 +8253,2236 @@
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+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
      "annotations": []
     }
@@ -10655,110 +13577,120 @@
    "diagnosis": null
   },
   {
-   "claim_id": "256e2230f3480d4272d5",
+   "claim_id": "01304f138bf44f724ef0",
    "source": "jct",
-   "source_column": "federal.arpa_childless_eitc",
-   "name": "ARPA 2021 childless EITC expansion (applied to 2024 data)",
-   "window": "FY2021-FY2031 (single tax year 2021)",
-   "publication_title": "JCT JCX-14-21 (3/9/2021): strengthening the EITC for individuals with no qualifying children, total -$11,882M (nearly all FY2022)",
-   "url": "https://www.jct.gov/publications/2021/jcx-14-21/",
+   "source_column": "4. Extension and enhancement of increased child tax credit [1]",
+   "name": "4. Extension and enhancement of increased child tax credit [1]",
+   "window": "",
+   "publication_title": "Estimated Revenue Effects Relative To The Present Law Baseline Of The Tax Provisions In \u201cTitle VII \u2013 Finance\u201d Of The Substitute Legislation As Passed By The Senate To Provide For Reconciliation Of The Fiscal Year 2025 Budget",
+   "url": "https://www.jct.gov/getattachment/eb21dc77-6439-4fc3-8f5d-fc23a8c377e0/x-35-25.pdf",
    "metric": "revenue_change",
    "unit_concept": "usd",
    "value_kind": "usd",
-   "period": 2021,
-   "time_basis": "annual",
+   "period": 2026,
+   "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
    "period_start": null,
    "period_end": null,
    "geography": "US",
    "program": null,
    "conditions": {
-    "geography": "US"
+    "bill_version": "JCX-35-25",
+    "geography": "US",
+    "provision": "4. Extension and enhancement of increased child tax credit [1]",
+    "row_kind": "provision",
+    "table_section": "Chapter 1: Providing Permanent Tax Relief for Middle-Class Families and Workers"
    },
    "reform_framework": "policy_ref",
-   "reform_key": "8975e0ef19be3ee4",
-   "external_value": -11882000000.0,
+   "reform_key": "12ace32f57dd8364",
+   "external_value": -48769000000.0,
    "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
    "latest": {
-    "value": -7123621842.23584,
+    "value": -91169531318.0,
     "status": "constructed",
     "engine_version": "1.764.6",
-    "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildo-sparse-rmloss100-22bd902-20260722T232627Z",
-    "release": "buildo",
-    "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax",
-    "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
-    "annotations": [],
-    "ratio": 0.5995305371348123,
-    "delta": 4758378157.76416
+    "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildp-sparse-rmloss100-cae8640-20260728T011454Z",
+    "release": "buildp",
+    "construction": "scored as expiry reversal from enacted law; negated (exact for the same static world pair) | gov.irs.credits.ctc.amount.base[0].amount: -> 1000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.amount.adult_dependent: -> 0; gov.irs.credits.ctc.refundable.individual_max: -> 1000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.refundable.phase_in.threshold: -> 3000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.JOINT: -> 110000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SINGLE: -> 75000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD: -> 75000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SURVIVING_SPOUSE: -> 75000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SEPARATE: -> 55000 | RESOLVED AS BASELINE DEFINITION (Max 8/2, issue #13): JCT's provision-4 baseline = expiry world + provisions 1-3 (a constructible ReformRef), not an inherent convention gap. This run scores provision 4 LAST-IN-STACK (vs full current law) \u2014 a different, well-defined baseline. The 1.87 ratio vs JCT's stack position is dominated by interactions with the provisions that differ between the two baselines \u2014 chiefly personal exemptions (present on JCT's expiry side until provision 3 terminates them) and the expiry-side AMT/QBI/SALT rules shaping the liability that limits the nonrefundable CTC. UNBLOCK: build baseline_k ReformRefs from CBO Jan-2025 Tax Parameters expiry projections (source already cited in the contrib bracket yaml); registered in RUNNABILITY.md.",
+    "computed_at": "2026-08-03T00:56:11.444990+00:00",
+    "annotations": [
+     "LAST-IN-STACK baseline (vs full current law); JCT scores at stack position 4 (expiry + provisions 1-3) \u2014 baseline_k ReformRef build registered",
+     "PE CY2026 vs JCT FY2026"
+    ],
+    "ratio": 1.869415639402079,
+    "delta": -42400531318.0
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    "results": [
     {
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+     "value": -85642146969.64697,
+     "status": "constructed",
+     "engine_version": "1.729.0",
+     "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-f0af251-703bd81a565c-20260620T201958Z",
+     "release": "f0af251",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:stacked_chained:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "computed_at": "2026-06-20T20:19:58",
+     "annotations": []
+    },
+    {
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+     "status": "constructed",
+     "engine_version": "1.752.2",
+     "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-sparse-l0-refit-57k-71a0887-national-only-20260701",
+     "release": "l0-refit",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:isolated:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "computed_at": "2026-07-01T00:00:00",
+     "annotations": []
+    },
+    {
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+     "status": "constructed",
+     "engine_version": "1.764.6",
+     "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildi-sparse-rmloss100-6e8e929-20260709T034135Z",
+     "release": "buildi",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "computed_at": "2026-07-09T03:41:35",
+     "annotations": []
+    },
+    {
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+     "status": "constructed",
+     "engine_version": "1.764.6",
+     "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildj-sparse-rmloss100-75d5add-20260710T094201Z",
+     "release": "buildj",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "computed_at": "2026-07-10T09:42:01",
+     "annotations": []
+    },
+    {
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      "status": "constructed",
      "engine_version": "1.764.6",
      "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildo-sparse-rmloss100-22bd902-20260722T232627Z",
      "release": "buildo",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
      "annotations": []
-    }
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-   "diagnosis": null
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-   "window": "FY2021+FY2022 (single tax year 2021)",
-   "publication_title": "JCT JCX-14-21 (3/9/2021), H.R.1319 as amended: Child Tax Credit improvements for 2021, FY21 -$25,826M + FY22 -$79,249M",
-   "url": "https://www.jct.gov/publications/2021/jcx-14-21/",
-   "metric": "revenue_change",
-   "unit_concept": "usd",
-   "value_kind": "usd",
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-   "time_basis": "annual",
-   "period_start": null,
-   "period_end": null,
-   "geography": "US",
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-   "conditions": {
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-   "reform_framework": "policy_ref",
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-    "status": "constructed",
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-    "release": "buildo",
-    "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax",
-    "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
-    "annotations": [],
-    "ratio": 0.8236821309882868,
-    "delta": 18526600086.40576
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-   "results": [
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      "status": "constructed",
      "engine_version": "1.764.6",
-     "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildo-sparse-rmloss100-22bd902-20260722T232627Z",
-     "release": "buildo",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax",
-     "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
-     "annotations": []
+     "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildp-sparse-rmloss100-cae8640-20260728T011454Z",
+     "release": "buildp",
+     "construction": "scored as expiry reversal from enacted law; negated (exact for the same static world pair) | gov.irs.credits.ctc.amount.base[0].amount: -> 1000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.amount.adult_dependent: -> 0; gov.irs.credits.ctc.refundable.individual_max: -> 1000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.refundable.phase_in.threshold: -> 3000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.JOINT: -> 110000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SINGLE: -> 75000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD: -> 75000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SURVIVING_SPOUSE: -> 75000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SEPARATE: -> 55000 | RESOLVED AS BASELINE DEFINITION (Max 8/2, issue #13): JCT's provision-4 baseline = expiry world + provisions 1-3 (a constructible ReformRef), not an inherent convention gap. This run scores provision 4 LAST-IN-STACK (vs full current law) \u2014 a different, well-defined baseline. The 1.87 ratio vs JCT's stack position is dominated by interactions with the provisions that differ between the two baselines \u2014 chiefly personal exemptions (present on JCT's expiry side until provision 3 terminates them) and the expiry-side AMT/QBI/SALT rules shaping the liability that limits the nonrefundable CTC. UNBLOCK: build baseline_k ReformRefs from CBO Jan-2025 Tax Parameters expiry projections (source already cited in the contrib bracket yaml); registered in RUNNABILITY.md.",
+     "computed_at": "2026-08-03T00:56:11.444990+00:00",
+     "annotations": [
+      "LAST-IN-STACK baseline (vs full current law); JCT scores at stack position 4 (expiry + provisions 1-3) \u2014 baseline_k ReformRef build registered",
+      "PE CY2026 vs JCT FY2026"
+     ]
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    ],
    "diagnosis": null
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   {
-   "claim_id": "de0e060283cedbdece46",
+   "claim_id": "1cb8833f070d370af65f",
    "source": "jct",
-   "source_column": "1. Extension and limited enhancement of reduced rates [1]",
-   "name": "1. Extension and limited enhancement of reduced rates [1]",
+   "source_column": "4. Permanent and expanded reinstatement of partial deduction for charitable contributions of individuals who do not elect to itemize",
+   "name": "4. Permanent and expanded reinstatement of partial deduction for charitable contributions of individuals who do not elect to itemize",
    "window": "",
    "publication_title": "Estimated Revenue Effects Relative To The Present Law Baseline Of The Tax Provisions In \u201cTitle VII \u2013 Finance\u201d Of The Substitute Legislation As Passed By The Senate To Provide For Reconciliation Of The Fiscal Year 2025 Budget",
    "url": "https://www.jct.gov/getattachment/eb21dc77-6439-4fc3-8f5d-fc23a8c377e0/x-35-25.pdf",
@@ -10774,16 +13706,16 @@
    "conditions": {
     "bill_version": "JCX-35-25",
     "geography": "US",
-    "provision": "1. Extension and limited enhancement of reduced rates [1]",
+    "provision": "4. Permanent and expanded reinstatement of partial deduction for charitable contributions of individuals who do not elect to itemize",
     "row_kind": "provision",
-    "table_section": "Chapter 1: Providing Permanent Tax Relief for Middle-Class Families and Workers"
+    "table_section": "Chapter 4: Investing in American Families, Communities, and Small Businesses Subchapter A - Permanent Investme"
    },
    "reform_framework": "policy_ref",
    "reform_key": "12ace32f57dd8364",
-   "external_value": -147679000000.0,
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@@ -10791,12 +13723,12 @@
     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
     "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
     "annotations": [],
-    "ratio": 1.389938039801566,
-    "delta": -57585659779.85547
+    "ratio": 2.258288580860071,
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@@ -10806,7 +13738,7 @@
      "annotations": []
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@@ -10816,7 +13748,7 @@
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@@ -10826,7 +13758,7 @@
      "annotations": []
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@@ -10836,7 +13768,7 @@
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@@ -10849,10 +13781,10 @@
    "diagnosis": null
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   {
-   "claim_id": "73ef6ebfd109b05e4d60",
+   "claim_id": "ecb717a9acc4a1b38078",
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-   "source_column": "1. No tax on tips (sunset 12/31/28) [5]",
-   "name": "1. No tax on tips (sunset 12/31/28) [5]",
+   "source_column": "5. 0.5 percent floor on deduction of contributions made by individuals",
+   "name": "5. 0.5 percent floor on deduction of contributions made by individuals",
    "window": "",
    "publication_title": "Estimated Revenue Effects Relative To The Present Law Baseline Of The Tax Provisions In \u201cTitle VII \u2013 Finance\u201d Of The Substitute Legislation As Passed By The Senate To Provide For Reconciliation Of The Fiscal Year 2025 Budget",
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@@ -10868,16 +13800,16 @@
    "conditions": {
     "bill_version": "JCX-35-25",
     "geography": "US",
-    "provision": "1. No tax on tips (sunset 12/31/28) [5]",
+    "provision": "5. 0.5 percent floor on deduction of contributions made by individuals",
     "row_kind": "provision",
-    "table_section": "Chapter 2: Delivering on Presidential Priorities to Provide New Middle-Class Tax Relief"
+    "table_section": "Chapter 4: Investing in American Families, Communities, and Small Businesses Subchapter A - Permanent Investme"
    },
    "reform_framework": "policy_ref",
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-   "external_value": -10121000000.0,
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@@ -10885,12 +13817,12 @@
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     "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
     "annotations": [],
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@@ -10900,7 +13832,7 @@
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@@ -10910,7 +13842,7 @@
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@@ -10920,7 +13852,7 @@
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@@ -10930,7 +13862,7 @@
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@@ -10943,10 +13875,10 @@
    "diagnosis": null
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   {
-   "claim_id": "8879d6dd6ecc11bdf607",
+   "claim_id": "0b9f7c2b76e0753b5f75",
    "source": "jct",
-   "source_column": "10. Termination of miscellaneous itemized deductions other than educator expenses",
-   "name": "10. Termination of miscellaneous itemized deductions other than educator expenses",
+   "source_column": "5. Enhancement of child and dependent care tax credit [1]",
+   "name": "5. Enhancement of child and dependent care tax credit [1]",
    "window": "",
    "publication_title": "Estimated Revenue Effects Relative To The Present Law Baseline Of The Tax Provisions In \u201cTitle VII \u2013 Finance\u201d Of The Substitute Legislation As Passed By The Senate To Provide For Reconciliation Of The Fiscal Year 2025 Budget",
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@@ -10962,16 +13894,16 @@
    "conditions": {
     "bill_version": "JCX-35-25",
     "geography": "US",
-    "provision": "10. Termination of miscellaneous itemized deductions other than educator expenses",
+    "provision": "5. Enhancement of child and dependent care tax credit [1]",
     "row_kind": "provision",
-    "table_section": "Chapter 1: Providing Permanent Tax Relief for Middle-Class Families and Workers"
+    "table_section": "Chapter 4: Investing in American Families, Communities, and Small Businesses Subchapter A - Permanent Investme"
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@@ -10979,12 +13911,12 @@
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     "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
     "annotations": [],
-    "ratio": 1.1308313243715766,
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@@ -11004,7 +13936,7 @@
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@@ -11014,7 +13946,7 @@
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@@ -11024,7 +13956,7 @@
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@@ -11037,10 +13969,10 @@
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+     "value": -190571706172.3506,
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      "engine_version": "1.752.2",
      "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-sparse-l0-refit-57k-71a0887-national-only-20260701",
      "release": "l0-refit",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:isolated:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:isolated:cy2026_for_fy2027",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-01T00:00:00",
      "annotations": []
     },
     {
-     "value": 143107871121.56006,
+     "value": -219237808210.38477,
      "status": "constructed",
      "engine_version": "1.764.6",
      "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildi-sparse-rmloss100-6e8e929-20260709T034135Z",
      "release": "buildi",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2027",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-09T03:41:35",
      "annotations": []
     },
     {
-     "value": 140638766188.2578,
+     "value": -217988675767.25195,
      "status": "constructed",
      "engine_version": "1.764.6",
      "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildj-sparse-rmloss100-75d5add-20260710T094201Z",
      "release": "buildj",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2027",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-10T09:42:01",
      "annotations": []
     },
     {
-     "value": 137828497908.52393,
+     "value": -205264659779.85547,
      "status": "constructed",
      "engine_version": "1.764.6",
      "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildo-sparse-rmloss100-22bd902-20260722T232627Z",
      "release": "buildo",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2027",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
      "annotations": []
     }
@@ -11601,17 +14533,17 @@
    "diagnosis": null
   },
   {
-   "claim_id": "01304f138bf44f724ef0",
+   "claim_id": "f227bd9991831f737066",
    "source": "jct",
-   "source_column": "4. Extension and enhancement of increased child tax credit [1]",
-   "name": "4. Extension and enhancement of increased child tax credit [1]",
+   "source_column": "1. No tax on tips (sunset 12/31/28) [5]",
+   "name": "1. No tax on tips (sunset 12/31/28) [5]",
    "window": "",
    "publication_title": "Estimated Revenue Effects Relative To The Present Law Baseline Of The Tax Provisions In \u201cTitle VII \u2013 Finance\u201d Of The Substitute Legislation As Passed By The Senate To Provide For Reconciliation Of The Fiscal Year 2025 Budget",
    "url": "https://www.jct.gov/getattachment/eb21dc77-6439-4fc3-8f5d-fc23a8c377e0/x-35-25.pdf",
    "metric": "revenue_change",
    "unit_concept": "usd",
    "value_kind": "usd",
-   "period": 2026,
+   "period": 2027,
    "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
    "period_start": null,
    "period_end": null,
@@ -11620,108 +14552,92 @@
    "conditions": {
     "bill_version": "JCX-35-25",
     "geography": "US",
-    "provision": "4. Extension and enhancement of increased child tax credit [1]",
+    "provision": "1. No tax on tips (sunset 12/31/28) [5]",
     "row_kind": "provision",
-    "table_section": "Chapter 1: Providing Permanent Tax Relief for Middle-Class Families and Workers"
+    "table_section": "Chapter 2: Delivering on Presidential Priorities to Provide New Middle-Class Tax Relief"
    },
    "reform_framework": "policy_ref",
    "reform_key": "12ace32f57dd8364",
-   "external_value": -48769000000.0,
+   "external_value": -7664000000.0,
    "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
    "latest": {
-    "value": -91169531318.0,
+    "value": -1764716950.9355469,
     "status": "constructed",
     "engine_version": "1.764.6",
-    "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildp-sparse-rmloss100-cae8640-20260728T011454Z",
-    "release": "buildp",
-    "construction": "scored as expiry reversal from enacted law; negated (exact for the same static world pair) | gov.irs.credits.ctc.amount.base[0].amount: -> 1000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.amount.adult_dependent: -> 0; gov.irs.credits.ctc.refundable.individual_max: -> 1000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.refundable.phase_in.threshold: -> 3000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.JOINT: -> 110000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SINGLE: -> 75000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD: -> 75000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SURVIVING_SPOUSE: -> 75000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SEPARATE: -> 55000 | RESOLVED AS BASELINE DEFINITION (Max 8/2, issue #13): JCT's provision-4 baseline = expiry world + provisions 1-3 (a constructible ReformRef), not an inherent convention gap. This run scores provision 4 LAST-IN-STACK (vs full current law) \u2014 a different, well-defined baseline. The 1.87 ratio vs JCT's stack position is dominated by interactions with the provisions that differ between the two baselines \u2014 chiefly personal exemptions (present on JCT's expiry side until provision 3 terminates them) and the expiry-side AMT/QBI/SALT rules shaping the liability that limits the nonrefundable CTC. UNBLOCK: build baseline_k ReformRefs from CBO Jan-2025 Tax Parameters expiry projections (source already cited in the contrib bracket yaml); registered in RUNNABILITY.md.",
-    "computed_at": "2026-08-03T00:56:11.444990+00:00",
-    "annotations": [
-     "LAST-IN-STACK baseline (vs full current law); JCT scores at stack position 4 (expiry + provisions 1-3) \u2014 baseline_k ReformRef build registered",
-     "PE CY2026 vs JCT FY2026"
-    ],
-    "ratio": 1.869415639402079,
-    "delta": -42400531318.0
+    "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildo-sparse-rmloss100-22bd902-20260722T232627Z",
+    "release": "buildo",
+    "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2027",
+    "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
+    "annotations": [],
+    "ratio": 0.23026056249159013,
+    "delta": 5899283049.064453
    },
    "results": [
     {
-     "value": -85642146969.64697,
+     "value": -3497376183.126465,
      "status": "constructed",
      "engine_version": "1.729.0",
      "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-f0af251-703bd81a565c-20260620T201958Z",
      "release": "f0af251",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:stacked_chained:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:stacked_chained:cy2026_for_fy2027",
      "computed_at": "2026-06-20T20:19:58",
      "annotations": []
     },
     {
-     "value": -85857310019.36963,
+     "value": 0.0,
      "status": "constructed",
      "engine_version": "1.752.2",
      "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-sparse-l0-refit-57k-71a0887-national-only-20260701",
      "release": "l0-refit",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:isolated:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:isolated:cy2026_for_fy2027",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-01T00:00:00",
      "annotations": []
     },
     {
-     "value": -90628266316.41602,
+     "value": 0.0,
      "status": "constructed",
      "engine_version": "1.764.6",
      "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildi-sparse-rmloss100-6e8e929-20260709T034135Z",
      "release": "buildi",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2027",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-09T03:41:35",
      "annotations": []
     },
     {
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+     "value": 0.0,
      "status": "constructed",
      "engine_version": "1.764.6",
      "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildj-sparse-rmloss100-75d5add-20260710T094201Z",
      "release": "buildj",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2027",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-10T09:42:01",
      "annotations": []
     },
     {
-     "value": -89064547927.9414,
+     "value": -1764716950.9355469,
      "status": "constructed",
      "engine_version": "1.764.6",
      "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildo-sparse-rmloss100-22bd902-20260722T232627Z",
      "release": "buildo",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2027",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
      "annotations": []
-    },
-    {
-     "value": -91169531318.0,
-     "status": "constructed",
-     "engine_version": "1.764.6",
-     "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildp-sparse-rmloss100-cae8640-20260728T011454Z",
-     "release": "buildp",
-     "construction": "scored as expiry reversal from enacted law; negated (exact for the same static world pair) | gov.irs.credits.ctc.amount.base[0].amount: -> 1000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.amount.adult_dependent: -> 0; gov.irs.credits.ctc.refundable.individual_max: -> 1000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.refundable.phase_in.threshold: -> 3000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.JOINT: -> 110000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SINGLE: -> 75000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD: -> 75000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SURVIVING_SPOUSE: -> 75000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SEPARATE: -> 55000 | RESOLVED AS BASELINE DEFINITION (Max 8/2, issue #13): JCT's provision-4 baseline = expiry world + provisions 1-3 (a constructible ReformRef), not an inherent convention gap. This run scores provision 4 LAST-IN-STACK (vs full current law) \u2014 a different, well-defined baseline. The 1.87 ratio vs JCT's stack position is dominated by interactions with the provisions that differ between the two baselines \u2014 chiefly personal exemptions (present on JCT's expiry side until provision 3 terminates them) and the expiry-side AMT/QBI/SALT rules shaping the liability that limits the nonrefundable CTC. UNBLOCK: build baseline_k ReformRefs from CBO Jan-2025 Tax Parameters expiry projections (source already cited in the contrib bracket yaml); registered in RUNNABILITY.md.",
-     "computed_at": "2026-08-03T00:56:11.444990+00:00",
-     "annotations": [
-      "LAST-IN-STACK baseline (vs full current law); JCT scores at stack position 4 (expiry + provisions 1-3) \u2014 baseline_k ReformRef build registered",
-      "PE CY2026 vs JCT FY2026"
-     ]
     }
    ],
    "diagnosis": null
   },
   {
-   "claim_id": "1cb8833f070d370af65f",
+   "claim_id": "7bd53e20cde8c5e5fbcc",
    "source": "jct",
-   "source_column": "4. Permanent and expanded reinstatement of partial deduction for charitable contributions of individuals who do not elect to itemize",
-   "name": "4. Permanent and expanded reinstatement of partial deduction for charitable contributions of individuals who do not elect to itemize",
+   "source_column": "10. Termination of miscellaneous itemized deductions other than educator expenses",
+   "name": "10. Termination of miscellaneous itemized deductions other than educator expenses",
    "window": "",
    "publication_title": "Estimated Revenue Effects Relative To The Present Law Baseline Of The Tax Provisions In \u201cTitle VII \u2013 Finance\u201d Of The Substitute Legislation As Passed By The Senate To Provide For Reconciliation Of The Fiscal Year 2025 Budget",
    "url": "https://www.jct.gov/getattachment/eb21dc77-6439-4fc3-8f5d-fc23a8c377e0/x-35-25.pdf",
    "metric": "revenue_change",
    "unit_concept": "usd",
    "value_kind": "usd",
-   "period": 2026,
+   "period": 2027,
    "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
    "period_start": null,
    "period_end": null,
@@ -11730,74 +14646,74 @@
    "conditions": {
     "bill_version": "JCX-35-25",
     "geography": "US",
-    "provision": "4. Permanent and expanded reinstatement of partial deduction for charitable contributions of individuals who do not elect to itemize",
+    "provision": "10. Termination of miscellaneous itemized deductions other than educator expenses",
     "row_kind": "provision",
-    "table_section": "Chapter 4: Investing in American Families, Communities, and Small Businesses Subchapter A - Permanent Investme"
+    "table_section": "Chapter 1: Providing Permanent Tax Relief for Middle-Class Families and Workers"
    },
    "reform_framework": "policy_ref",
    "reform_key": "12ace32f57dd8364",
-   "external_value": -1543000000.0,
+   "external_value": 23707000000.0,
    "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
    "latest": {
-    "value": -3484539280.26709,
+    "value": 15174625541.742188,
     "status": "constructed",
     "engine_version": "1.764.6",
     "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildo-sparse-rmloss100-22bd902-20260722T232627Z",
     "release": "buildo",
-    "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+    "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2027",
     "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
     "annotations": [],
-    "ratio": 2.258288580860071,
-    "delta": -1941539280.2670898
+    "ratio": 0.6400905024567507,
+    "delta": -8532374458.2578125
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    "results": [
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+     "value": 16987843852.270508,
      "status": "constructed",
      "engine_version": "1.729.0",
      "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-f0af251-703bd81a565c-20260620T201958Z",
      "release": "f0af251",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:stacked_chained:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:stacked_chained:cy2026_for_fy2027",
      "computed_at": "2026-06-20T20:19:58",
      "annotations": []
     },
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+     "value": 0.0,
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      "release": "l0-refit",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:isolated:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:isolated:cy2026_for_fy2027",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-01T00:00:00",
      "annotations": []
     },
     {
-     "value": -3336161996.835449,
+     "value": 0.0,
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      "release": "buildi",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2027",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-09T03:41:35",
      "annotations": []
     },
     {
-     "value": -3364235878.944336,
+     "value": 0.0,
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      "release": "buildj",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2027",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-10T09:42:01",
      "annotations": []
     },
     {
-     "value": -3484539280.26709,
+     "value": 15174625541.742188,
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      "release": "buildo",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2027",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
      "annotations": []
     }
@@ -11805,17 +14721,17 @@
    "diagnosis": null
   },
   {
-   "claim_id": "ecb717a9acc4a1b38078",
+   "claim_id": "89ea72f1651301083a8e",
    "source": "jct",
-   "source_column": "5. 0.5 percent floor on deduction of contributions made by individuals",
-   "name": "5. 0.5 percent floor on deduction of contributions made by individuals",
+   "source_column": "11. Limitation on tax benefit of itemized deductions",
+   "name": "11. Limitation on tax benefit of itemized deductions",
    "window": "",
    "publication_title": "Estimated Revenue Effects Relative To The Present Law Baseline Of The Tax Provisions In \u201cTitle VII \u2013 Finance\u201d Of The Substitute Legislation As Passed By The Senate To Provide For Reconciliation Of The Fiscal Year 2025 Budget",
    "url": "https://www.jct.gov/getattachment/eb21dc77-6439-4fc3-8f5d-fc23a8c377e0/x-35-25.pdf",
    "metric": "revenue_change",
    "unit_concept": "usd",
    "value_kind": "usd",
-   "period": 2026,
+   "period": 2027,
    "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
    "period_start": null,
    "period_end": null,
@@ -11824,74 +14740,74 @@
    "conditions": {
     "bill_version": "JCX-35-25",
     "geography": "US",
-    "provision": "5. 0.5 percent floor on deduction of contributions made by individuals",
+    "provision": "11. Limitation on tax benefit of itemized deductions",
     "row_kind": "provision",
-    "table_section": "Chapter 4: Investing in American Families, Communities, and Small Businesses Subchapter A - Permanent Investme"
+    "table_section": "Chapter 1: Providing Permanent Tax Relief for Middle-Class Families and Workers"
    },
    "reform_framework": "policy_ref",
    "reform_key": "12ace32f57dd8364",
-   "external_value": 1346000000.0,
+   "external_value": -26393000000.0,
    "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
    "latest": {
-    "value": 7188068518.41748,
+    "value": -19565645365.34619,
     "status": "constructed",
     "engine_version": "1.764.6",
     "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildo-sparse-rmloss100-22bd902-20260722T232627Z",
     "release": "buildo",
-    "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+    "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2027",
     "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
     "annotations": [],
-    "ratio": 5.340318364351768,
-    "delta": 5842068518.41748
+    "ratio": 0.7413194924921832,
+    "delta": 6827354634.653809
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    "results": [
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      "release": "f0af251",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:stacked_chained:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:stacked_chained:cy2026_for_fy2027",
      "computed_at": "2026-06-20T20:19:58",
      "annotations": []
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      "release": "l0-refit",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:isolated:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:isolated:cy2026_for_fy2027",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-01T00:00:00",
      "annotations": []
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      "release": "buildi",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2027",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-09T03:41:35",
      "annotations": []
     },
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      "release": "buildj",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2027",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-10T09:42:01",
      "annotations": []
     },
     {
-     "value": 7188068518.41748,
+     "value": -19565645365.34619,
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      "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildo-sparse-rmloss100-22bd902-20260722T232627Z",
      "release": "buildo",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2027",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
      "annotations": []
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@@ -11899,17 +14815,17 @@
    "diagnosis": null
   },
   {
-   "claim_id": "0b9f7c2b76e0753b5f75",
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@@ -14974,80 +17920,80 @@
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@@ -15055,80 +18001,80 @@
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@@ -15701,973 +18649,1497 @@
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+    "fiscal_event": "Spring Budget 2024",
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+    "measure": "High Income Child Benefit Charge: increase income threshold to \u00a360,000 and taper range to \u00a360,000 to \u00a380,000 from 6 April 2024",
+    "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer",
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+    "annotations": [
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+     "external anchor = sum of the measure's 1 component rows at FY2026 (-250000000 GBP); this result anchors to the largest component \u2014 compare against the annotated total, not this row's value",
+     "reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) \u2014 baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual",
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+    "costing_phase": "original_scorecard",
+    "fiscal_event": "Spring Budget 2024",
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+    "measure": "National Insurance contributions (NICs): 2 percentage point cut to the main rate of Class 1 employee NICs from 6 April 2024",
+    "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer",
+    "tax_head": "NICs"
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+     "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+     "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+     "construction": "reversal of enacted measure on certified 2026 world: gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main: 0.08 -> 0.1; reform={\"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.1}}",
+     "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+     "annotations": [
+      "signed PE effect -12070073647 GBP (measure direction, magnitude compared)",
+      "external anchor = sum of the measure's 6 component rows at FY2026 (-10465234282 GBP); this result anchors to the largest component \u2014 compare against the annotated total, not this row's value",
+      "reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) \u2014 baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual",
+      "confidence: high"
+     ]
+    }
+   ],
+   "diagnosis": null
+  },
+  {
+   "claim_id": "2b6f2ec0d57b9de861cd",
+   "source": "obr",
+   "source_column": "2026-27",
+   "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)",
+   "window": "",
+   "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)",
+   "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx",
+   "metric": "revenue_change",
+   "unit_concept": "gbp",
+   "value_kind": "gbp",
+   "period": 2026,
+   "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
+   "period_start": null,
+   "period_end": null,
+   "geography": "UK",
+   "program": null,
+   "conditions": {
+    "basis": "forecast",
+    "costing_phase": "original_scorecard",
+    "fiscal_event": "Autumn Budget 2024",
+    "fy": "2026-27",
+    "geography": "UK",
+    "measure": "Capital Gains Tax: Increase the main rates of CGT to 18% and 24% from 30 October 2024, and the Business Asset Disposal Relief (BADR) and Investors' Relief (IR) rate to 14% from 6 April 2025 and to 18% from 6 April 2026 ",
+    "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer",
+    "tax_head": "Income tax"
+   },
+   "reform_framework": "policy_ref",
+   "reform_key": "84710a21502c6dae",
+   "external_value": 1262326238.2390866,
+   "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
+   "latest": {
+    "value": 2832564125.7933006,
+    "status": "constructed",
+    "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+    "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+    "construction": "reversal of enacted measure on certified 2026 world: gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate: 0.18 -> 0.10; gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate: 0.24 -> 0.20; reform={\"gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.1}, \"gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.2}}",
+    "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+    "annotations": [
+     "signed PE effect 2832564126 GBP (measure direction, magnitude compared)",
+     "external anchor = sum of the measure's 3 component rows at FY2026 (1292432022 GBP); this result anchors to the largest component \u2014 compare against the annotated total, not this row's value",
+     "reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) \u2014 baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual",
+     "confidence: high; PE static (no forestalling/behavioral)"
+    ],
+    "ratio": 2.2439239873082704,
+    "delta": 1570237887.554214
+   },
+   "results": [
+    {
+     "value": 2832564125.7933006,
+     "status": "constructed",
+     "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+     "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+     "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+     "construction": "reversal of enacted measure on certified 2026 world: gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate: 0.18 -> 0.10; gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate: 0.24 -> 0.20; reform={\"gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.1}, \"gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.2}}",
+     "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+     "annotations": [
+      "signed PE effect 2832564126 GBP (measure direction, magnitude compared)",
+      "external anchor = sum of the measure's 3 component rows at FY2026 (1292432022 GBP); this result anchors to the largest component \u2014 compare against the annotated total, not this row's value",
+      "reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) \u2014 baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual",
+      "confidence: high; PE static (no forestalling/behavioral)"
+     ]
+    }
+   ],
+   "diagnosis": null
+  },
+  {
+   "claim_id": "4e10449ce5bd0a9a09ca",
+   "source": "obr",
+   "source_column": "2026-27",
+   "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)",
+   "window": "",
+   "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)",
+   "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx",
+   "metric": "revenue_change",
+   "unit_concept": "gbp",
+   "value_kind": "gbp",
+   "period": 2026,
+   "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
+   "period_start": null,
+   "period_end": null,
+   "geography": "UK",
+   "program": null,
+   "conditions": {
+    "basis": "forecast",
+    "costing_phase": "original_scorecard",
+    "fiscal_event": "Spring Statement 2022",
+    "fy": "2026-27",
+    "geography": "UK",
+    "measure": "National Insurance: increase annual primary threshold and lower profits limit to \u00a312,570 from July 2022",
+    "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer",
+    "tax_head": "NICs"
+   },
+   "reform_framework": "policy_ref",
+   "reform_key": "fa7e1025cfae45ef",
+   "external_value": -4250248911.606618,
+   "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
+   "latest": {
+    "value": 5833696943.071625,
+    "status": "constructed",
+    "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+    "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+    "construction": "reversal of enacted measure on certified 2026 world: gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold: 241.73 -> 190.00/wk; gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit: 12570.0 -> 9880.0; reform={\"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 189.99923076923076}, \"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 9880.0}}",
+    "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+    "annotations": [
+     "signed PE effect -5833696943 GBP (measure direction, magnitude compared)",
+     "external anchor = sum of the measure's 5 component rows at FY2026 (-4702119816 GBP); this result anchors to the largest component \u2014 compare against the annotated total, not this row's value",
+     "reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) \u2014 baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual",
+     "confidence: LOW (announcement-vintage \u00a32,690 gap; counterfactual uprating path unknowable)"
+    ],
+    "ratio": -1.3725541878596599,
+    "delta": 10083945854.678242
+   },
+   "results": [
+    {
+     "value": 5833696943.071625,
+     "status": "constructed",
+     "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+     "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+     "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+     "construction": "reversal of enacted measure on certified 2026 world: gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold: 241.73 -> 190.00/wk; gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit: 12570.0 -> 9880.0; reform={\"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 189.99923076923076}, \"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 9880.0}}",
+     "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+     "annotations": [
+      "signed PE effect -5833696943 GBP (measure direction, magnitude compared)",
+      "external anchor = sum of the measure's 5 component rows at FY2026 (-4702119816 GBP); this result anchors to the largest component \u2014 compare against the annotated total, not this row's value",
+      "reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) \u2014 baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual",
+      "confidence: LOW (announcement-vintage \u00a32,690 gap; counterfactual uprating path unknowable)"
+     ]
+    }
+   ],
+   "diagnosis": null
+  },
+  {
+   "claim_id": "51c129f1247fe3aaf656",
+   "source": "obr",
+   "source_column": "2026-27",
+   "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)",
+   "window": "",
+   "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)",
+   "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx",
+   "metric": "revenue_change",
+   "unit_concept": "gbp",
+   "value_kind": "gbp",
+   "period": 2026,
+   "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
+   "period_start": null,
+   "period_end": null,
+   "geography": "UK",
+   "program": null,
+   "conditions": {
+    "basis": "forecast",
+    "costing_phase": "original_scorecard",
+    "fiscal_event": "Autumn Statement 2023",
+    "fy": "2026-27",
+    "geography": "UK",
+    "measure": "National Insurance contributions (NICs): 1p cut to the main rate of Class 4 self-employed NICs from April 2024",
+    "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer",
+    "tax_head": "NICs"
+   },
+   "reform_framework": "policy_ref",
+   "reform_key": "b01de664ed4a5540",
+   "external_value": -330136761.76593643,
+   "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
+   "latest": {
+    "value": 1755439439.4202042,
+    "status": "constructed",
+    "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+    "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+    "construction": "reversal of enacted measure on certified 2026 world: gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main: 0.06 -> 0.09; reform={\"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.09}}",
+    "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+    "annotations": [
+     "signed PE effect -1755439439 GBP (measure direction, magnitude compared)",
+     "external anchor = sum of the measure's 4 component rows at FY2026 (-348009098 GBP); this result anchors to the largest component \u2014 compare against the annotated total, not this row's value",
+     "reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) \u2014 baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual",
+     "confidence: stack (AS2023 1p + SB2024 2p); external row is the 1p leg \u2014 compare via differencing vs tranche-1 class4_1pp"
+    ],
+    "ratio": -5.317309802247326,
+    "delta": 2085576201.1861405
+   },
+   "results": [
+    {
+     "value": 1755439439.4202042,
+     "status": "constructed",
+     "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+     "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+     "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+     "construction": "reversal of enacted measure on certified 2026 world: gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main: 0.06 -> 0.09; reform={\"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.09}}",
+     "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+     "annotations": [
+      "signed PE effect -1755439439 GBP (measure direction, magnitude compared)",
+      "external anchor = sum of the measure's 4 component rows at FY2026 (-348009098 GBP); this result anchors to the largest component \u2014 compare against the annotated total, not this row's value",
+      "reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) \u2014 baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual",
+      "confidence: stack (AS2023 1p + SB2024 2p); external row is the 1p leg \u2014 compare via differencing vs tranche-1 class4_1pp"
+     ]
+    }
+   ],
+   "diagnosis": null
+  },
+  {
+   "claim_id": "b22705f1bcc9a6d78eda",
+   "source": "obr",
+   "source_column": "2026-27",
+   "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)",
+   "window": "",
+   "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)",
+   "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx",
+   "metric": "revenue_change",
+   "unit_concept": "gbp",
+   "value_kind": "gbp",
+   "period": 2026,
+   "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
+   "period_start": null,
+   "period_end": null,
+   "geography": "UK",
+   "program": null,
+   "conditions": {
+    "basis": "forecast",
+    "costing_phase": "original_scorecard",
+    "fiscal_event": "Autumn Statement 2023",
+    "fy": "2026-27",
+    "geography": "UK",
+    "measure": "National Insurance contributions (NICs): 2p cut to the main rate of Class 1 employee NICs from January 2024",
+    "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer",
+    "tax_head": "NICs"
+   },
+   "reform_framework": "policy_ref",
+   "reform_key": "f25434cc35c52770",
+   "external_value": -9343022622.888573,
+   "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
+   "latest": {
+    "value": 24142042648.760254,
+    "status": "constructed",
+    "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+    "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+    "construction": "reversal of enacted measure on certified 2026 world: gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main: 0.08 -> 0.12; reform={\"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.12}}",
+    "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+    "annotations": [
+     "signed PE effect -24142042649 GBP (measure direction, magnitude compared)",
+     "external anchor = sum of the measure's 4 component rows at FY2026 (-9068607177 GBP); this result anchors to the largest component \u2014 compare against the annotated total, not this row's value",
+     "reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) \u2014 baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual",
+     "confidence: high; AS2023 leg \u2248 p4\u2212p2 differencing"
+    ],
+    "ratio": -2.5839649140543646,
+    "delta": 33485065271.648827
+   },
+   "results": [
+    {
+     "value": 24142042648.760254,
+     "status": "constructed",
+     "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+     "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+     "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+     "construction": "reversal of enacted measure on certified 2026 world: gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main: 0.08 -> 0.12; reform={\"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.12}}",
+     "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+     "annotations": [
+      "signed PE effect -24142042649 GBP (measure direction, magnitude compared)",
+      "external anchor = sum of the measure's 4 component rows at FY2026 (-9068607177 GBP); this result anchors to the largest component \u2014 compare against the annotated total, not this row's value",
+      "reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) \u2014 baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual",
+      "confidence: high; AS2023 leg \u2248 p4\u2212p2 differencing"
+     ]
+    }
+   ],
+   "diagnosis": null
+  },
+  {
+   "claim_id": "bfd44ee49c00292b3101",
+   "source": "obr",
+   "source_column": "2026-27",
+   "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)",
+   "window": "",
+   "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)",
+   "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx",
+   "metric": "revenue_change",
+   "unit_concept": "gbp",
+   "value_kind": "gbp",
+   "period": 2026,
+   "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
    "period_start": null,
    "period_end": null,
-   "geography": "MN",
-   "program": "mn_cwfc",
+   "geography": "UK",
+   "program": null,
    "conditions": {
-    "geography": "MN",
-    "program": "mn_cwfc"
+    "basis": "forecast",
+    "costing_phase": "original_scorecard",
+    "fiscal_event": "Autumn Statement 2022",
+    "fy": "2026-27",
+    "geography": "UK",
+    "measure": "Income Tax: reduce additional rate threshold from \u00a3150,000 to \u00a3125,140 from April 2023",
+    "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer",
+    "tax_head": "Income tax"
    },
-   "reform_framework": "baseline",
-   "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849",
-   "external_value": 755500000.0,
+   "reform_framework": "policy_ref",
+   "reform_key": "e867c0fa0d8235e0",
+   "external_value": 792451863.1115595,
    "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
    "latest": {
-    "value": 831585233.4332116,
-    "status": "comparable",
-    "engine_version": "1.764.6",
-    "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildo-sparse-rmloss100-22bd902-20260722T232627Z",
-    "release": "buildo",
-    "construction": "level:mn_child_and_working_families_credits",
-    "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
-    "annotations": [],
-    "ratio": 1.1007084492828743,
-    "delta": 76085233.43321157
+    "value": 1787263536.0213013,
+    "status": "constructed",
+    "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+    "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+    "construction": "reversal of enacted measure on certified 2026 world: gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[2].threshold: 125140.0 -> 150000; reform={\"gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[2].threshold\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 150000}}",
+    "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+    "annotations": [
+     "signed PE effect 1787263536 GBP (measure direction, magnitude compared)",
+     "external anchor = sum of the measure's 3 component rows at FY2026 (783448087 GBP); this result anchors to the largest component \u2014 compare against the annotated total, not this row's value",
+     "reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) \u2014 baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual",
+     "confidence: high"
+    ],
+    "ratio": 2.2553591192323243,
+    "delta": 994811672.9097418
    },
    "results": [
     {
-     "value": 801306594.67186,
-     "status": "comparable",
-     "engine_version": "1.752.2",
-     "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-sparse-l0-refit-57k-71a0887-national-only-20260701",
-     "release": "l0-refit",
-     "construction": "level:mn_child_and_working_families_credits",
-     "computed_at": "2026-07-01T00:00:00",
-     "annotations": []
-    },
-    {
-     "value": 857023713.1635034,
-     "status": "comparable",
-     "engine_version": "1.764.6",
-     "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildi-sparse-rmloss100-6e8e929-20260709T034135Z",
-     "release": "buildi",
-     "construction": "level:mn_child_and_working_families_credits",
-     "computed_at": "2026-07-09T03:41:35",
-     "annotations": []
-    },
-    {
-     "value": 876316831.2885281,
-     "status": "comparable",
-     "engine_version": "1.764.6",
-     "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildj-sparse-rmloss100-75d5add-20260710T094201Z",
-     "release": "buildj",
-     "construction": "level:mn_child_and_working_families_credits",
-     "computed_at": "2026-07-10T09:42:01",
-     "annotations": []
-    },
-    {
-     "value": 831585233.4332116,
-     "status": "comparable",
-     "engine_version": "1.764.6",
-     "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildo-sparse-rmloss100-22bd902-20260722T232627Z",
-     "release": "buildo",
-     "construction": "level:mn_child_and_working_families_credits",
-     "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
-     "annotations": []
+     "value": 1787263536.0213013,
+     "status": "constructed",
+     "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+     "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+     "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+     "construction": "reversal of enacted measure on certified 2026 world: gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[2].threshold: 125140.0 -> 150000; reform={\"gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[2].threshold\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 150000}}",
+     "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+     "annotations": [
+      "signed PE effect 1787263536 GBP (measure direction, magnitude compared)",
+      "external anchor = sum of the measure's 3 component rows at FY2026 (783448087 GBP); this result anchors to the largest component \u2014 compare against the annotated total, not this row's value",
+      "reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) \u2014 baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual",
+      "confidence: high"
+     ]
     }
    ],
    "diagnosis": null
   },
   {
-   "claim_id": "901232245430396bdea5",
-   "source": "mn_admin",
-   "source_column": "state_mn_wfc",
-   "name": "Minnesota Working Family Credit",
-   "window": "TY2024",
-   "publication_title": "Derived: House Research combined CTC+WFC $755.5M minus MN DOR CTC $564M (both TY2024)",
-   "url": "https://www.house.mn.gov/hrd/pubs/ss/sschldwfc.pdf",
-   "metric": "benefit_cost",
-   "unit_concept": "usd",
-   "value_kind": "usd",
-   "period": 2024,
-   "time_basis": "annual",
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+      "reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) \u2014 baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual",
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@@ -17196,6 +20668,485 @@
    ],
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   },
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+     "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+     "annotations": [
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+     "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
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+    "fy": "2026-27",
+    "geography": "UK",
+    "measure": "repeal two-child limit in UC (and legacy CTC) from April 2026; policyengine-uk: gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit (and tax credits analogue)",
+    "measure_note": "exchequer cost",
+    "source_metric": "reform_fiscal_cost"
+   },
+   "reform_framework": "policy_ref",
+   "reform_key": "5bb416c9316441b0",
+   "external_value": 2400000000.0,
+   "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
+   "latest": {
+    "value": 1104248292.8024673,
+    "status": "constructed",
+    "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+    "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+    "construction": "PE UC-only static cost of 2CL removal, CY2026, calibrated take-up",
+    "computed_at": "2026-08-02T18:11:52.738422+00:00",
+    "annotations": [
+     "entitlements-basis: 1.85bn",
+     "external HMT costing includes legacy-CTC scope + OBR-certified take-up response (named scopes)",
+     "cost triangle: 1.10 calibrated / 1.85 entitlements / 2.4 HMT"
+    ],
+    "ratio": 0.4601034553343614,
+    "delta": -1295751707.1975327
+   },
+   "results": [
+    {
+     "value": 1104248292.8024673,
+     "status": "constructed",
+     "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+     "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+     "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+     "construction": "PE UC-only static cost of 2CL removal, CY2026, calibrated take-up",
+     "computed_at": "2026-08-02T18:11:52.738422+00:00",
+     "annotations": [
+      "entitlements-basis: 1.85bn",
+      "external HMT costing includes legacy-CTC scope + OBR-certified take-up response (named scopes)",
+      "cost triangle: 1.10 calibrated / 1.85 entitlements / 2.4 HMT"
+     ]
+    }
+   ],
+   "diagnosis": null
+  },
+  {
+   "claim_id": "4a52f83ad92c18d95b36",
+   "source": "resolution_foundation",
+   "source_column": "Government estimate: reduction in children in poverty from two-child limit removal",
+   "name": "Happy new tax year 2026",
+   "window": "",
+   "publication_title": "Happy new tax year 2026",
+   "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/happy-new-tax-year-2026/",
+   "metric": "poverty_count_change",
+   "unit_concept": "children_under_18",
+   "value_kind": "count",
+   "period": 2029,
+   "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
+   "period_start": null,
+   "period_end": null,
+   "geography": "UK",
+   "program": null,
+   "conditions": {
+    "attribution": "Government estimate cited by RF",
+    "fy": "2029-30",
+    "geography": "UK",
+    "measure": "repeal two-child limit in UC (and legacy CTC) from April 2026; policyengine-uk: gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit (and tax credits analogue)",
+    "unit_population": "children"
+   },
+   "reform_framework": "policy_ref",
+   "reform_key": "5bb416c9316441b0",
+   "external_value": -450000.0,
+   "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
+   "latest": {
+    "value": -243108.06365954876,
+    "status": "concept_mismatch",
+    "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+    "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+    "construction": "2CL removal, PE 2026 single-year, actual partially-rolled-in law (born<2017 exempt), fixed baseline rel-AHC line, HBAI-dep proxy, calibrated take-up",
+    "computed_at": "2026-08-02T18:11:52.738422+00:00",
+    "annotations": [
+     "external is govt claim at FY2029-30 (mostly rolled-in) \u2014 period+roll-in mismatch, attached for the pentagon surface",
+     "entitlements-basis variant: -277,287",
+     "channel ledger: line 0 / definition +8k / take-up +34k / roll-in+lineage residual"
+    ],
+    "ratio": 0.5402401414656639,
+    "delta": 206891.93634045124
+   },
+   "results": [
+    {
+     "value": -243108.06365954876,
+     "status": "concept_mismatch",
+     "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+     "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+     "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+     "construction": "2CL removal, PE 2026 single-year, actual partially-rolled-in law (born<2017 exempt), fixed baseline rel-AHC line, HBAI-dep proxy, calibrated take-up",
+     "computed_at": "2026-08-02T18:11:52.738422+00:00",
+     "annotations": [
+      "external is govt claim at FY2029-30 (mostly rolled-in) \u2014 period+roll-in mismatch, attached for the pentagon surface",
+      "entitlements-basis variant: -277,287",
+      "channel ledger: line 0 / definition +8k / take-up +34k / roll-in+lineage residual"
+     ]
+    }
+   ],
+   "diagnosis": null
+  },
   {
    "claim_id": "3f377de7e5d1a0b461ae",
    "source": "ri_admin",
@@ -18059,6 +22010,66 @@
    ],
    "diagnosis": null
   },
+  {
+   "claim_id": "bf8c18237c04b891cd53",
+   "source": "ukmod",
+   "source_column": null,
+   "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030",
+   "window": "",
+   "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030",
+   "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf",
+   "metric": "poverty_count_change",
+   "unit_concept": "persons",
+   "value_kind": "count",
+   "period": 2026,
+   "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
+   "period_start": null,
+   "period_end": null,
+   "geography": "UK",
+   "program": null,
+   "conditions": {
+    "fy": "2026-27",
+    "geography": "UK",
+    "income_concept": "AHC",
+    "measure": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions",
+    "poverty_line_type": "fixed",
+    "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline",
+    "subgroup": "Children"
+   },
+   "reform_framework": "policy_ref",
+   "reform_key": "71933ac9cf45dd0a",
+   "external_value": -13193.0,
+   "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
+   "latest": {
+    "value": -243108.06365954876,
+    "status": "concept_mismatch",
+    "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+    "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+    "construction": "PE = 2CL-only removal; external = NET Autumn-Budget package (freezes offset 2CL) \u2014 attached for the pentagon surface with basis labels",
+    "computed_at": "2026-08-02T18:11:52.738422+00:00",
+    "annotations": [
+     "per-leg bases documented in results/uk/two_child_fixed_line_2026.json external_pentagon"
+    ],
+    "ratio": 18.427049470139373,
+    "delta": -229915.06365954876
+   },
+   "results": [
+    {
+     "value": -243108.06365954876,
+     "status": "concept_mismatch",
+     "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+     "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+     "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+     "construction": "PE = 2CL-only removal; external = NET Autumn-Budget package (freezes offset 2CL) \u2014 attached for the pentagon surface with basis labels",
+     "computed_at": "2026-08-02T18:11:52.738422+00:00",
+     "annotations": [
+      "per-leg bases documented in results/uk/two_child_fixed_line_2026.json external_pentagon"
+     ]
+    }
+   ],
+   "diagnosis": null
+  },
   {
    "claim_id": "93368a42000c01f07cc3",
    "source": "ut_admin",
diff --git a/data/lanes.json b/data/lanes.json
index 51fdf89..62c8321 100644
--- a/data/lanes.json
+++ b/data/lanes.json
@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@
   "stage": "registered | cataloged | ingested | computed | diagnosing | published | regressed",
   "note": "Repo-committed status feed (issue #7); graduate to Supabase when lane count makes commits noisy. Every lane writes its transition here."
  },
- "updated": "2026-08-06",
+ "updated": "2026-08-02",
  "lanes": [
   {
    "id": "urban-sotsn",
@@ -140,50 +140,50 @@
    "source": "DWP",
    "area": "UK income-related benefits take-up",
    "mode": 1,
-   "stage": "registered",
+   "stage": "ingested",
    "running": false,
-   "updated": "2026-08-01",
-   "note": "Canonical UK take-up publication (#3)"
+   "updated": "2026-08-02",
+   "note": "805 take-up claims with bounds (609 PC rows seed_source \u2014 pe-uk takeup.yaml cites this series; HB rows held_out vs PE takeup=1, policyengine-uk#1813); 102 BECL forecast rows (30 expenditure lines consumed_as_target via OBR 4.9); 102 BECL outturn rows routed to Ledger staging"
   },
   {
    "id": "hbai-poverty",
    "source": "DWP HBAI",
    "area": "UK poverty rates",
    "mode": 1,
-   "stage": "registered",
+   "stage": "ingested",
    "running": false,
-   "updated": "2026-08-01",
-   "note": "#3"
+   "updated": "2026-08-02",
+   "note": "1040 HBAI claims (FYE 1995-2025, relative+absolute \u00d7 BHC+AHC, rates+counts; FYE-2025 + admin-linked FYE-2024 edition pair staged \u2014 the ~2pp methodology-gap diagnosis seed); permanent poverty holdout"
   },
   {
    "id": "hmrc-personal-tax",
    "source": "HMRC",
    "area": "UK personal tax statistics",
    "mode": 1,
-   "stage": "registered",
+   "stage": "ingested",
    "running": false,
-   "updated": "2026-08-01",
-   "note": "#3"
+   "updated": "2026-08-02",
+   "note": "225 ready-reckoner claims (policy worlds per line, FY2026-27+, behavioural per HMRC notes \u2014 the campaign reckoner join surface) + 762 SPI-based projections (726 seed_source via the shared SPI 2023-24 base, 36 whole-population liability totals consumed-class); 1855 outturn/provisional admin rows routed to Ledger staging"
   },
   {
    "id": "obr-welfare",
    "source": "OBR",
    "area": "welfare trends / EFO baselines",
    "mode": 1,
-   "stage": "registered",
+   "stage": "ingested",
    "running": false,
-   "updated": "2026-08-01",
-   "note": "#3"
+   "updated": "2026-08-02",
+   "note": "1121 EFO Mar-2026 claims (receipts 3.4/3.8, welfare 4.9/4.11, threshold analysis 3.17-3.19); 150 consumed_as_target (exact pe-uk-data target lines, targets/sources/obr.py); 133 outturn rows routed to Ledger staging"
   },
   {
    "id": "ukmod-stats",
    "source": "UKMOD",
    "area": "published statistics",
    "mode": 1,
-   "stage": "registered",
+   "stage": "ingested",
    "running": false,
-   "updated": "2026-08-01",
-   "note": "#3"
+   "updated": "2026-08-02",
+   "note": "1392 UKMOD claims \u2014 Country Report 2023-2030 validation block (simulated/official/input-data/HBAI series side by side; take-up priors frozen since 2021 per their own \u00a74.3 warning) + CeMPA 3/26 AB2025 package assessment (209 reform-keyed rows); 300 JRF claims (unrounded AHC headline series, persistent poverty, MIS-adjacent thresholds); 88 MIS weekly-budget cells deliberately dropped (focus-group budget standards, not model-checkable \u2014 recoverable in vendored staging)"
   },
   {
    "id": "jct-reform-scores",
@@ -304,6 +304,46 @@
    "running": false,
    "updated": "2026-08-04",
    "note": "205 claims, 675 per-release results (5 releases, 180 attached to harvest claims); 11 unscoreable rows skipped"
+  },
+  {
+   "id": "obr-measures",
+   "source": "OBR",
+   "area": "policy measures database (1970\u2192)",
+   "mode": 2,
+   "stage": "ingested",
+   "running": false,
+   "updated": "2026-08-02",
+   "note": "24304 policy-measures-database claims (84 fiscal events since 1970, reform-keyed per measure title, positive_gain_to_exchequer verbatim)"
+  },
+  {
+   "id": "hmt-costings",
+   "source": "HM Treasury",
+   "area": "fiscal-event scorecards + DA",
+   "mode": 2,
+   "stage": "ingested",
+   "running": false,
+   "updated": "2026-08-02",
+   "note": "1218 OBR-certified scorecard costings (AB2024 5.1 / B2025 4.1 / SS2025 3.1; exchequer_impact \u2014 Tax/Spend heads mix by design; 31 suppressed cells verbatim) + 150 IGOTM decile medians (annex 2.C); B2025 two-child measure title embeds the government's 450k-children poverty claim \u2014 pentagon leg"
+  },
+  {
+   "id": "ifs-taxben",
+   "source": "IFS TAXBEN",
+   "area": "poverty + benefit options",
+   "mode": 2,
+   "stage": "ingested",
+   "running": false,
+   "updated": "2026-08-02",
+   "note": "268 TAXBEN claims: absolute-AHC child-poverty series, Green-Budget-2025 options block (164 reform-keyed rows incl. the \u2212540k steady-state two-child-limit leg of the pentagon), threshold-freeze revenue rows; options baseline = registered ifs_2cl_fp_removal_rolled_out world; TAXBEN is entitlements-basis (full take-up) \u2014 registry axis on every poverty comparison"
+  },
+  {
+   "id": "rf-outlook",
+   "source": "Resolution Foundation",
+   "area": "living standards outlook + Budget analysis",
+   "mode": 2,
+   "stage": "ingested",
+   "running": false,
+   "updated": "2026-08-02",
+   "note": "70 Resolution Foundation claims (IPPR Tax Benefit Model on FRS/HBAI 2023-24): LSO 2026 poverty projections incl. the \u2212420k two-child pentagon leg, Budget-2025 decile block, April-2026 uprating set (11 parameter-check rows \u2014 campaign uprating_check joins here); 26 reform-keyed rows; 1 price-index-only row dropped (out of tax/benefit scope, tallied)"
   }
  ]
-}
\ No newline at end of file
+}
diff --git a/data/ledger/uk_admin_outturns.jsonl b/data/ledger/uk_admin_outturns.jsonl
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..e7d533c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/data/ledger/uk_admin_outturns.jsonl
@@ -0,0 +1,2090 @@
+{"fact_id": "uk:uk_dwp:00ed545f86d6db8aae16", "routed_because": "DWP BECL outturn \u2014 admin expenditure/caseload fact (ledger routing rule, Max 2026-08-02)", "source": "uk_dwp", "staged": {"calibration_note": "VERIFIED 2026-08-02: policyengine-uk-data/targets/sources/obr.py consumes benefit expenditure AND caseload forecasts from OBR March 2026 EFO supplementary tables; BECL Spring Forecast 2026 is OBR-Spring-2026-consistent, so rows for benefits in obr.py's parse are effectively consumed_as_target \u2014 reclass at ingest after matching benefit lists. dwp.py separately consumes PIP claimant counts (England & Wales) and UC claimant counts from DWP admin statistics. NOTE ALSO: pe-uk-data maps FY to its STARTING calendar year (FY 2025-26 -> 2025); this staging uses FY ENDING year (-> 2026); conditions.fy is the unambiguous label", "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "conditions": {"basis": "outturn", "benefit": "state_pension", "fy": "2021/22", "geography": "gb"}, "conversion": "sheet value in GBP million (nominal terms) x 1e6 -> GBP", "metric": "benefit_cost", "period": 2022, "proposed_unit": "gbp", "publication": {"artifact": "downloads/outturn-and-forecast-tables-spring-forecast-2026.xlsx", "cell": "r4c77", "date": "2026-04-14", "sheet": "State Pension", "title": "Benefit expenditure and caseload tables 2026: Outturn and forecast tables, Spring Forecast 2026", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/benefit-expenditure-and-caseload-tables-2026", "vintage": "Spring Forecast 2026 (OBR Spring 2026 forecast-consistent)", "workbook": "outturn-and-forecast-tables-spring-forecast-2026.xlsx"}, "reform": {"framework": "baseline"}, "source": "uk_dwp", "source_column": "State Pension | Total | 2021/22 outturn", "source_model": "dwp_becl", "status": "ok", "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "value": 104691670423.69, "value_kind": "gbp", "value_raw": "104691.67042369001"}}
+{"fact_id": "uk:uk_dwp:042b51efbd9105afae61", "routed_because": "DWP BECL outturn \u2014 admin expenditure/caseload fact (ledger routing rule, Max 2026-08-02)", "source": "uk_dwp", "staged": {"calibration_note": "VERIFIED 2026-08-02: policyengine-uk-data/targets/sources/obr.py consumes benefit expenditure AND caseload forecasts from OBR March 2026 EFO supplementary tables; BECL Spring Forecast 2026 is OBR-Spring-2026-consistent, so rows for benefits in obr.py's parse are effectively consumed_as_target \u2014 reclass at ingest after matching benefit lists. dwp.py separately consumes PIP claimant counts (England & Wales) and UC claimant counts from DWP admin statistics. NOTE ALSO: pe-uk-data maps FY to its STARTING calendar year (FY 2025-26 -> 2025); this staging uses FY ENDING year (-> 2026); conditions.fy is the unambiguous label", "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "conditions": {"basis": "outturn", "benefit": "personal_tax_credits", "fy": "2024/25", "geography": "gb"}, "conversion": "sheet value in GBP million (nominal terms) x 1e6 -> GBP", "metric": "benefit_cost", "period": 2025, "proposed_unit": "gbp", "publication": {"artifact": "downloads/outturn-and-forecast-tables-spring-forecast-2026.xlsx", "cell": "r5c80", "date": "2026-04-14", "sheet": "Non-DWP Welfare", "title": "Benefit expenditure and caseload tables 2026: Outturn and forecast tables, Spring Forecast 2026", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/benefit-expenditure-and-caseload-tables-2026", "vintage": "Spring Forecast 2026 (OBR Spring 2026 forecast-consistent)", "workbook": "outturn-and-forecast-tables-spring-forecast-2026.xlsx"}, "reform": {"framework": "baseline"}, "source": "uk_dwp", "source_column": "Non-DWP Welfare | Personal tax credits | 2024/25 outturn", "source_model": "dwp_becl", "status": "ok", "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "value": 1763602550.74, "value_kind": "gbp", "value_raw": "1763.602550738144"}}
+{"fact_id": "uk:uk_dwp:0e54e44c94be47023652", "routed_because": "DWP BECL outturn \u2014 admin expenditure/caseload fact (ledger routing rule, Max 2026-08-02)", "source": "uk_dwp", "staged": {"calibration_note": "VERIFIED 2026-08-02: policyengine-uk-data/targets/sources/obr.py consumes benefit expenditure AND caseload forecasts from OBR March 2026 EFO supplementary tables; BECL Spring Forecast 2026 is OBR-Spring-2026-consistent, so rows for benefits in obr.py's parse are effectively consumed_as_target \u2014 reclass at ingest after matching benefit lists. dwp.py separately consumes PIP claimant counts (England & Wales) and UC claimant counts from DWP admin statistics. NOTE ALSO: pe-uk-data maps FY to its STARTING calendar year (FY 2025-26 -> 2025); this staging uses FY ENDING year (-> 2026); conditions.fy is the unambiguous label", "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "conditions": {"basis": "outturn", "benefit": "pension_credit", "fy": "2023/24", "geography": "gb"}, "conversion": "sheet value in thousands x 1000 -> count", "metric": "caseload", "period": 2024, "publication": {"artifact": "downloads/outturn-and-forecast-tables-spring-forecast-2026.xlsx", "cell": "r20c79", "date": "2026-04-14", "sheet": "Pension Credit", "title": "Benefit expenditure and caseload tables 2026: Outturn and forecast tables, Spring Forecast 2026", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/benefit-expenditure-and-caseload-tables-2026", "vintage": "Spring Forecast 2026 (OBR Spring 2026 forecast-consistent)", "workbook": "outturn-and-forecast-tables-spring-forecast-2026.xlsx"}, "reform": {"framework": "baseline"}, "source": "uk_dwp", "source_column": "Pension Credit | Pension Credit | 2023/24 outturn", "source_model": "dwp_becl", "status": "ok", "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "time_note": "FY-average caseload (BECL Notes: 'Caseload figures represent an average over the full financial year')", "unit_concept": "families", "unit_note": "PC caseload = claims (benefit units); staged as families", "value": 1370000.0, "value_kind": "count", "value_raw": "1370"}}
+{"fact_id": "uk:uk_dwp:0e5b7bdfed0aff5d832a", "routed_because": "DWP BECL outturn \u2014 admin expenditure/caseload fact (ledger routing rule, Max 2026-08-02)", "source": "uk_dwp", "staged": {"calibration_note": "VERIFIED 2026-08-02: policyengine-uk-data/targets/sources/obr.py consumes benefit expenditure AND caseload forecasts from OBR March 2026 EFO supplementary tables; BECL Spring Forecast 2026 is OBR-Spring-2026-consistent, so rows for benefits in obr.py's parse are effectively consumed_as_target \u2014 reclass at ingest after matching benefit lists. dwp.py separately consumes PIP claimant counts (England & Wales) and UC claimant counts from DWP admin statistics. NOTE ALSO: pe-uk-data maps FY to its STARTING calendar year (FY 2025-26 -> 2025); this staging uses FY ENDING year (-> 2026); conditions.fy is the unambiguous label", "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "conditions": {"basis": "outturn", "benefit": "universal_credit", "fy": "2023/24", "geography": "gb"}, "conversion": "sheet value in thousands x 1000 -> count", "metric": "caseload", "period": 2024, "publication": {"artifact": "downloads/outturn-and-forecast-tables-spring-forecast-2026.xlsx", "cell": "r53c79", "date": "2026-04-14", "sheet": "Universal Credit and equivalent", "title": "Benefit expenditure and caseload tables 2026: Outturn and forecast tables, Spring Forecast 2026", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/benefit-expenditure-and-caseload-tables-2026", "vintage": "Spring Forecast 2026 (OBR Spring 2026 forecast-consistent)", "workbook": "outturn-and-forecast-tables-spring-forecast-2026.xlsx"}, "reform": {"framework": "baseline"}, "source": "uk_dwp", "source_column": "Universal Credit and equivalent | Universal Credit | 2023/24 outturn", "source_model": "dwp_becl", "status": "ok", "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "time_note": "FY-average caseload (BECL Notes: 'Caseload figures represent an average over the full financial year')", "unit_concept": "households", "unit_note": "UC caseload = households (benefit units) per BECL notes", "value": 4706000.0, "value_kind": "count", "value_raw": "4706"}}
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+{"derived": {"parent_line": "Health and disability spending (excluding carer-related spending)"}, "fact_id": "uk:uk_obr:f32df23cec9f43e81cea", "routed_because": "OBR EFO outturn column \u2014 admin receipts/expenditure fact (ledger routing rule, Max 2026-08-02)", "source": "uk_obr", "staged": {"calibration_relationship": "held_out", "conditions": {"basis": "outturn", "domain": "health_disability_welfare", "fy": "2024-25", "geography": "UK", "line_item": "Pensioner"}, "metric": "benefit_cost", "normalization": "GBP billion x 1e9 -> GBP", "period": 2024, "proposed_unit": "gbp", "publication": {"publication_url": "https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/", "publisher": "Office for Budget Responsibility", "title": "Economic and fiscal outlook November 2025 - detailed forecast tables: expenditure", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Expenditure_Detailed_forecast_tables_November_2025.xlsx", "vintage": "November 2025 EFO", "wayback": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260316163307id_/https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Expenditure_Detailed_forecast_tables_November_2025.xlsx", "workbook": "Expenditure_Detailed_forecast_tables_November_2025.xlsx"}, "reform_hint": null, "source": "obr", "source_column": "2024-25", "source_model": "obr_efo_forecast", "source_table": "4.11: 4.11 Health- and disability-related welfare spending", "status": "ok", "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "value": 14182951490.777817, "value_raw": 14.182951490777818}}
+{"derived": {"section": "welfare_cap"}, "fact_id": "uk:uk_obr:f468982fddbd87eee826", "routed_because": "OBR EFO outturn column \u2014 admin receipts/expenditure fact (ledger routing rule, Max 2026-08-02)", "source": "uk_obr", "staged": {"calibration_relationship": "held_out", "conditions": {"basis": "outturn", "domain": "welfare_spending", "fy": "2024-25", "geography": "UK", "line_item": "Total welfare cap"}, "metric": "benefit_cost", "normalization": "GBP billion x 1e9 -> GBP", "period": 2024, "proposed_unit": "gbp", "publication": {"publication_url": "https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/", "publisher": "Office for Budget Responsibility", "title": "Economic and fiscal outlook November 2025 - detailed forecast tables: expenditure", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Expenditure_Detailed_forecast_tables_November_2025.xlsx", "vintage": "November 2025 EFO", "wayback": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260316163307id_/https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Expenditure_Detailed_forecast_tables_November_2025.xlsx", "workbook": "Expenditure_Detailed_forecast_tables_November_2025.xlsx"}, "reform_hint": null, "source": "obr", "source_column": "2024-25", "source_model": "obr_efo_forecast", "source_table": "4.9: 4.9 Post measures breakdown of welfare spending", "status": "ok", "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "value": 158787872200.63556, "value_raw": 158.78787220063555}}
+{"derived": {"parent_line": "Disability spending"}, "fact_id": "uk:uk_obr:f600f4bf74557e689f30", "routed_because": "OBR EFO outturn column \u2014 admin receipts/expenditure fact (ledger routing rule, Max 2026-08-02)", "source": "uk_obr", "staged": {"calibration_relationship": "held_out", "conditions": {"basis": "outturn", "domain": "health_disability_welfare", "fy": "2024-25", "geography": "UK", "line_item": "Children"}, "metric": "benefit_cost", "normalization": "GBP billion x 1e9 -> GBP", "period": 2024, "proposed_unit": "gbp", "publication": {"publication_url": "https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2025/", "publisher": "Office for Budget Responsibility", "title": "Economic and fiscal outlook November 2025 - detailed forecast tables: expenditure", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Expenditure_Detailed_forecast_tables_November_2025.xlsx", "vintage": "November 2025 EFO", "wayback": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260316163307id_/https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Expenditure_Detailed_forecast_tables_November_2025.xlsx", "workbook": "Expenditure_Detailed_forecast_tables_November_2025.xlsx"}, "reform_hint": null, "source": "obr", "source_column": "2024-25", "source_model": "obr_efo_forecast", "source_table": "4.11: 4.11 Health- and disability-related welfare spending", "status": "ok", "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "value": 4517038325.149783, "value_raw": 4.517038325149783}}
+{"fact_id": "uk:uk_obr:f8a11c0d9a0c21adbe10", "routed_because": "OBR EFO outturn column \u2014 admin receipts/expenditure fact (ledger routing rule, Max 2026-08-02)", "source": "uk_obr", "staged": {"calibration_relationship": "held_out", "conditions": {"basis": "outturn", "fy": "2024-25", "geography": "UK", "line_item": "Temporary Repatriation Facility (TRF)"}, "normalization": "GBP billion x 1e9 -> GBP", "period": 2024, "proposed_metric": "revenue_level", "proposed_unit": "gbp", "publication": {"publication_url": "https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/", "publisher": "Office for Budget Responsibility", "title": "Economic and fiscal outlook March 2026 - detailed forecast tables: receipts", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/d055fbf02d5b3g6jq8l2/efo-march-2026-detailed-forecast-tables-receipts.xlsx", "vintage": "March 2026 EFO", "wayback": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260316163140id_/https://obr.uk/docs/d055fbf02d5b3g6jq8l2/efo-march-2026-detailed-forecast-tables-receipts.xlsx", "workbook": "efo-march-2026-detailed-forecast-tables-receipts.xlsx"}, "reform_hint": null, "source": "obr", "source_column": "2024-25", "source_model": "obr_efo_forecast", "source_table": "3.4: 3.4 Income tax and NICs forecast: detailed breakdown", "status": "ok", "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "value": 0.0, "value_raw": 0.0}}
+{"fact_id": "uk:uk_obr:fdcb2a85958105033548", "routed_because": "OBR EFO outturn column \u2014 admin receipts/expenditure fact (ledger routing rule, Max 2026-08-02)", "source": "uk_obr", "staged": {"calibration_relationship": "held_out", "conditions": {"basis": "outturn", "fy": "2024-25", "geography": "UK", "line_item": "Apprenticeship Levy"}, "normalization": "GBP billion x 1e9 -> GBP", "period": 2024, "proposed_metric": "revenue_level", "proposed_unit": "gbp", "publication": {"publication_url": "https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/", "publisher": "Office for Budget Responsibility", "title": "Economic and fiscal outlook March 2026 - detailed forecast tables: receipts", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/d055fbf02d5b3g6jq8l2/efo-march-2026-detailed-forecast-tables-receipts.xlsx", "vintage": "March 2026 EFO", "wayback": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260316163140id_/https://obr.uk/docs/d055fbf02d5b3g6jq8l2/efo-march-2026-detailed-forecast-tables-receipts.xlsx", "workbook": "efo-march-2026-detailed-forecast-tables-receipts.xlsx"}, "reform_hint": null, "source": "obr", "source_column": "2024-25", "source_model": "obr_efo_forecast", "source_table": "3.8: 3.8 Current receipts (on a cash basis)", "status": "ok", "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "value": 4099999999.9999995, "value_raw": 4.1}}
diff --git a/data/populations.json b/data/populations.json
index af84503..712ae33 100644
--- a/data/populations.json
+++ b/data/populations.json
@@ -1,8 +1,8 @@
 {
- "built": "2026-08-06",
+ "built": "2026-08-14",
  "note": "Non-Urban populations exported from scorecard.db: the populace reform-validation registry (issue #20) plus the compute campaign's attached comparisons (TPC/CPSP/PWBM/CBO/JCT). Statuses and calibration relationships are verbatim; nothing here is a pass/fail grade.",
  "summary": {
-  "claims": 270,
+  "claims": 335,
   "multi_release_claims": 127,
   "by_source": {
    "az_admin": 1,
@@ -18,8 +18,10 @@
    "ct_fiscal_note": 3,
    "dc_admin": 1,
    "de_admin": 1,
+   "dwp": 9,
    "ga_fiscal_note": 1,
    "hi_admin": 1,
+   "hmrc": 23,
    "ia_admin": 1,
    "ia_fiscal_note": 1,
    "id_admin": 2,
@@ -46,15 +48,18 @@
    "nj_admin": 2,
    "nm_admin": 2,
    "ny_admin": 2,
+   "obr": 24,
    "oh_admin": 1,
    "ok_admin": 1,
    "ok_fiscal_note": 1,
    "or_admin": 2,
    "pwbm": 2,
+   "resolution_foundation": 8,
    "ri_admin": 1,
    "sc_admin": 1,
    "tpc": 10,
    "treasury": 1,
+   "ukmod": 1,
    "ut_admin": 1,
    "va_admin": 1,
    "vt_admin": 2,
@@ -62,9 +67,10 @@
    "wi_admin": 1
   },
   "by_latest_status": {
-   "comparable": 37,
-   "concept_mismatch": 2,
-   "constructed": 231
+   "comparable": 41,
+   "concept_mismatch": 4,
+   "constructed": 281,
+   "not_computed": 9
   }
  },
  "rows": [
@@ -6702,7 +6708,11 @@
      ]
     }
    ],
-   "diagnosis": null
+   "diagnosis": {
+    "class": "methodological_difference",
+    "rationale": "Level comparison vs an ASEC-anchored series: Populace CALCULATES benefits and recalibrates where the ASEC carries reported attributes, and treats thresholds differently (descriptive decomposition in sources/campaign-20260802/SPM_NOTES.md). A named sub-channel: Early Head Start at engine-default 100% take-up flows inside household_net_income (populace#593). Change metrics between CTC worlds are the same-assumptions surface and are directionally consistent.",
+    "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/populace/issues/593"
+   }
   },
   {
    "claim_id": "6776df1ea796030cbdc6",
@@ -6765,7 +6775,11 @@
      ]
     }
    ],
-   "diagnosis": null
+   "diagnosis": {
+    "class": "methodological_difference",
+    "rationale": "Level comparison vs an ASEC-anchored series: Populace CALCULATES benefits and recalibrates where the ASEC carries reported attributes, and treats thresholds differently (descriptive decomposition in sources/campaign-20260802/SPM_NOTES.md). A named sub-channel: Early Head Start at engine-default 100% take-up flows inside household_net_income (populace#593). Change metrics between CTC worlds are the same-assumptions surface and are directionally consistent.",
+    "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/populace/issues/593"
+   }
   },
   {
    "claim_id": "17357fa57e38729ecdcd",
@@ -6824,7 +6838,11 @@
      ]
     }
    ],
-   "diagnosis": null
+   "diagnosis": {
+    "class": "methodological_difference",
+    "rationale": "Level comparison vs an ASEC-anchored series: Populace CALCULATES benefits and recalibrates where the ASEC carries reported attributes, and treats thresholds differently (descriptive decomposition in sources/campaign-20260802/SPM_NOTES.md). A named sub-channel: Early Head Start at engine-default 100% take-up flows inside household_net_income (populace#593). Change metrics between CTC worlds are the same-assumptions surface and are directionally consistent.",
+    "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/populace/issues/593"
+   }
   },
   {
    "claim_id": "984ab8f1c0b001d4aa5c",
@@ -6883,7 +6901,11 @@
      ]
     }
    ],
-   "diagnosis": null
+   "diagnosis": {
+    "class": "methodological_difference",
+    "rationale": "Level comparison vs an ASEC-anchored series: Populace CALCULATES benefits and recalibrates where the ASEC carries reported attributes, and treats thresholds differently (descriptive decomposition in sources/campaign-20260802/SPM_NOTES.md). A named sub-channel: Early Head Start at engine-default 100% take-up flows inside household_net_income (populace#593). Change metrics between CTC worlds are the same-assumptions surface and are directionally consistent.",
+    "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/populace/issues/593"
+   }
   },
   {
    "claim_id": "1e71ccf56dcae8de7a23",
@@ -6944,7 +6966,11 @@
      ]
     }
    ],
-   "diagnosis": null
+   "diagnosis": {
+    "class": "methodological_difference",
+    "rationale": "Level comparison vs an ASEC-anchored series: Populace CALCULATES benefits and recalibrates where the ASEC carries reported attributes, and treats thresholds differently (descriptive decomposition in sources/campaign-20260802/SPM_NOTES.md). A named sub-channel: Early Head Start at engine-default 100% take-up flows inside household_net_income (populace#593). Change metrics between CTC worlds are the same-assumptions surface and are directionally consistent.",
+    "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/populace/issues/593"
+   }
   },
   {
    "claim_id": "fd02127839e40294e7a5",
@@ -7005,7 +7031,11 @@
      ]
     }
    ],
-   "diagnosis": null
+   "diagnosis": {
+    "class": "methodological_difference",
+    "rationale": "Level comparison vs an ASEC-anchored series: Populace CALCULATES benefits and recalibrates where the ASEC carries reported attributes, and treats thresholds differently (descriptive decomposition in sources/campaign-20260802/SPM_NOTES.md). A named sub-channel: Early Head Start at engine-default 100% take-up flows inside household_net_income (populace#593). Change metrics between CTC worlds are the same-assumptions surface and are directionally consistent.",
+    "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/populace/issues/593"
+   }
   },
   {
    "claim_id": "05e88b52036c2668389d",
@@ -7064,7 +7094,11 @@
      ]
     }
    ],
-   "diagnosis": null
+   "diagnosis": {
+    "class": "methodological_difference",
+    "rationale": "Level comparison vs an ASEC-anchored series: Populace CALCULATES benefits and recalibrates where the ASEC carries reported attributes, and treats thresholds differently (descriptive decomposition in sources/campaign-20260802/SPM_NOTES.md). A named sub-channel: Early Head Start at engine-default 100% take-up flows inside household_net_income (populace#593). Change metrics between CTC worlds are the same-assumptions surface and are directionally consistent.",
+    "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/populace/issues/593"
+   }
   },
   {
    "claim_id": "e54aad0412968c828eba",
@@ -7123,7 +7157,11 @@
      ]
     }
    ],
-   "diagnosis": null
+   "diagnosis": {
+    "class": "methodological_difference",
+    "rationale": "Level comparison vs an ASEC-anchored series: Populace CALCULATES benefits and recalibrates where the ASEC carries reported attributes, and treats thresholds differently (descriptive decomposition in sources/campaign-20260802/SPM_NOTES.md). A named sub-channel: Early Head Start at engine-default 100% take-up flows inside household_net_income (populace#593). Change metrics between CTC worlds are the same-assumptions surface and are directionally consistent.",
+    "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/populace/issues/593"
+   }
   },
   {
    "claim_id": "dbb34965f41514214b05",
@@ -7518,6 +7556,541 @@
    ],
    "diagnosis": null
   },
+  {
+   "claim_id": "07aa4f547552c96187bb",
+   "source": "dwp",
+   "source_column": "Disability benefits | Attendance Allowance | 2025/26 forecast",
+   "name": "Benefit expenditure and caseload tables 2026: Outturn and forecast tables, Spring Forecast 2026",
+   "window": "",
+   "publication_title": "Benefit expenditure and caseload tables 2026: Outturn and forecast tables, Spring Forecast 2026",
+   "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/benefit-expenditure-and-caseload-tables-2026",
+   "metric": "benefit_cost",
+   "unit_concept": "gbp",
+   "value_kind": "gbp",
+   "period": 2025,
+   "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
+   "period_start": null,
+   "period_end": null,
+   "geography": "england_wales",
+   "program": "attendance_allowance",
+   "conditions": {
+    "basis": "forecast",
+    "fy": "2025-26",
+    "geography": "england_wales",
+    "geography_note": "England and Wales only from FY 2020/21 (Scottish devolution of disability benefits 1 April 2020; BECL Notes tab)",
+    "program": "attendance_allowance"
+   },
+   "reform_framework": "baseline",
+   "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849",
+   "external_value": 8497187075.07,
+   "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target",
+   "latest": {
+    "value": 4733056192.259981,
+    "status": "constructed",
+    "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+    "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+    "construction": "attendance_allowance total",
+    "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+    "annotations": [
+     "OBR/DWP fiscal year 2026-27 vs PE calendar 2026 (named delta); receipts/expenditure cash vs PE accrual entitlement/liability (named delta); geography england_wales vs PE UK (named delta)",
+     "claim describes FY starting 2025, not the runner's nominal 2026 \u2014 the campaign selected DWP rows by the staged end-year ints (PE CY2026 vs this FY, named)"
+    ],
+    "ratio": 0.5570144743719192,
+    "delta": -3764130882.8100185
+   },
+   "results": [
+    {
+     "value": 4733056192.259981,
+     "status": "constructed",
+     "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+     "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+     "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+     "construction": "attendance_allowance total",
+     "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+     "annotations": [
+      "OBR/DWP fiscal year 2026-27 vs PE calendar 2026 (named delta); receipts/expenditure cash vs PE accrual entitlement/liability (named delta); geography england_wales vs PE UK (named delta)",
+      "claim describes FY starting 2025, not the runner's nominal 2026 \u2014 the campaign selected DWP rows by the staged end-year ints (PE CY2026 vs this FY, named)"
+     ]
+    }
+   ],
+   "diagnosis": null
+  },
+  {
+   "claim_id": "d55bc50c6ad4af550186",
+   "source": "dwp",
+   "source_column": "Disability benefits | Disability Living Allowance | 2025/26 forecast",
+   "name": "Benefit expenditure and caseload tables 2026: Outturn and forecast tables, Spring Forecast 2026",
+   "window": "",
+   "publication_title": "Benefit expenditure and caseload tables 2026: Outturn and forecast tables, Spring Forecast 2026",
+   "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/benefit-expenditure-and-caseload-tables-2026",
+   "metric": "benefit_cost",
+   "unit_concept": "gbp",
+   "value_kind": "gbp",
+   "period": 2025,
+   "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
+   "period_start": null,
+   "period_end": null,
+   "geography": "england_wales",
+   "program": "dla",
+   "conditions": {
+    "basis": "forecast",
+    "fy": "2025-26",
+    "geography": "england_wales",
+    "geography_note": "England and Wales only from FY 2020/21 (Scottish devolution of disability benefits 1 April 2020; BECL Notes tab)",
+    "program": "dla"
+   },
+   "reform_framework": "baseline",
+   "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849",
+   "external_value": 8289471895.17,
+   "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
+   "latest": {
+    "value": 6342775060.054455,
+    "status": "constructed",
+    "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+    "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+    "construction": "dla total",
+    "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+    "annotations": [
+     "OBR/DWP fiscal year 2026-27 vs PE calendar 2026 (named delta); receipts/expenditure cash vs PE accrual entitlement/liability (named delta); geography england_wales vs PE UK (named delta)",
+     "claim describes FY starting 2025, not the runner's nominal 2026 \u2014 the campaign selected DWP rows by the staged end-year ints (PE CY2026 vs this FY, named)"
+    ],
+    "ratio": 0.7651603311123087,
+    "delta": -1946696835.1155453
+   },
+   "results": [
+    {
+     "value": 6342775060.054455,
+     "status": "constructed",
+     "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+     "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+     "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+     "construction": "dla total",
+     "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+     "annotations": [
+      "OBR/DWP fiscal year 2026-27 vs PE calendar 2026 (named delta); receipts/expenditure cash vs PE accrual entitlement/liability (named delta); geography england_wales vs PE UK (named delta)",
+      "claim describes FY starting 2025, not the runner's nominal 2026 \u2014 the campaign selected DWP rows by the staged end-year ints (PE CY2026 vs this FY, named)"
+     ]
+    }
+   ],
+   "diagnosis": null
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   {
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@@ -7680,833 +8253,2236 @@
    "diagnosis": null
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   {
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-   "url": "https://revenue.iowa.gov/media/4472/download?inline=",
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-   "period_end": null,
-   "geography": "IA",
-   "program": "ia_eitc",
+   "claim_id": "03b390287a42c7fd6714",
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+   "source_column": "Current Estimate, financial year 2026 to 2027, \u00a3 million",
+   "name": "Direct effects of illustrative tax changes",
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+   "publication_title": "Direct effects of illustrative tax changes",
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    "conditions": {
-    "geography": "IA",
-    "program": "ia_eitc"
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+    "direction_semantics": "effect_of_stated_change",
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+    "tax_section": "Income Tax rates"
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-   "reform_framework": "baseline",
-   "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849",
-   "external_value": 72117991.0,
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+    "construction": "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].rate: 0.4 -> 0.41000000000000003; heads=income_tax; reform={\"gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].rate\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.41000000000000003}}",
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+   "url": "https://www.jct.gov/getattachment/eb21dc77-6439-4fc3-8f5d-fc23a8c377e0/x-35-25.pdf",
+   "metric": "revenue_change",
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-   "time_basis": "annual",
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+   "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
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    "period_end": null,
    "geography": "US",
    "program": null,
    "conditions": {
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     "geography": "US",
-    "tax": "self_employment_tax"
+    "provision": "3. Termination of deduction for personal exemptions other than temporary senior deduction [1]",
+    "row_kind": "provision",
+    "table_section": "Chapter 1: Providing Permanent Tax Relief for Middle-Class Families and Workers"
    },
-   "reform_framework": "baseline",
-   "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849",
-   "external_value": 81087060000.0,
-   "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target",
+   "reform_framework": "policy_ref",
+   "reform_key": "12ace32f57dd8364",
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+   "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
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     "release": "buildo",
-    "construction": "level:self_employment_tax",
+    "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
     "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
     "annotations": [],
-    "ratio": 1.5587550322383295,
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+    "ratio": 1.2459073257267699,
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      "release": "f0af251",
-     "construction": "level:self_employment_tax",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:stacked_chained:cy2026_for_fy2026",
      "computed_at": "2026-06-20T20:19:58",
      "annotations": []
     },
     {
-     "value": 69547029583.4678,
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      "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-sparse-l0-refit-57k-71a0887-national-only-20260701",
      "release": "l0-refit",
-     "construction": "level:self_employment_tax",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:isolated:cy2026_for_fy2026",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-01T00:00:00",
      "annotations": []
     },
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      "release": "buildi",
-     "construction": "level:self_employment_tax",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-09T03:41:35",
      "annotations": []
     },
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      "release": "buildj",
-     "construction": "level:self_employment_tax",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-10T09:42:01",
      "annotations": []
     },
     {
-     "value": 126394862824.41135,
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      "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildo-sparse-rmloss100-22bd902-20260722T232627Z",
      "release": "buildo",
-     "construction": "level:self_employment_tax",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
      "annotations": []
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@@ -10655,110 +13577,120 @@
    "diagnosis": null
   },
   {
-   "claim_id": "256e2230f3480d4272d5",
+   "claim_id": "01304f138bf44f724ef0",
    "source": "jct",
-   "source_column": "federal.arpa_childless_eitc",
-   "name": "ARPA 2021 childless EITC expansion (applied to 2024 data)",
-   "window": "FY2021-FY2031 (single tax year 2021)",
-   "publication_title": "JCT JCX-14-21 (3/9/2021): strengthening the EITC for individuals with no qualifying children, total -$11,882M (nearly all FY2022)",
-   "url": "https://www.jct.gov/publications/2021/jcx-14-21/",
+   "source_column": "4. Extension and enhancement of increased child tax credit [1]",
+   "name": "4. Extension and enhancement of increased child tax credit [1]",
+   "window": "",
+   "publication_title": "Estimated Revenue Effects Relative To The Present Law Baseline Of The Tax Provisions In \u201cTitle VII \u2013 Finance\u201d Of The Substitute Legislation As Passed By The Senate To Provide For Reconciliation Of The Fiscal Year 2025 Budget",
+   "url": "https://www.jct.gov/getattachment/eb21dc77-6439-4fc3-8f5d-fc23a8c377e0/x-35-25.pdf",
    "metric": "revenue_change",
    "unit_concept": "usd",
    "value_kind": "usd",
-   "period": 2021,
-   "time_basis": "annual",
+   "period": 2026,
+   "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
    "period_start": null,
    "period_end": null,
    "geography": "US",
    "program": null,
    "conditions": {
-    "geography": "US"
+    "bill_version": "JCX-35-25",
+    "geography": "US",
+    "provision": "4. Extension and enhancement of increased child tax credit [1]",
+    "row_kind": "provision",
+    "table_section": "Chapter 1: Providing Permanent Tax Relief for Middle-Class Families and Workers"
    },
    "reform_framework": "policy_ref",
-   "reform_key": "8975e0ef19be3ee4",
-   "external_value": -11882000000.0,
+   "reform_key": "12ace32f57dd8364",
+   "external_value": -48769000000.0,
    "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
    "latest": {
-    "value": -7123621842.23584,
+    "value": -91169531318.0,
     "status": "constructed",
     "engine_version": "1.764.6",
-    "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildo-sparse-rmloss100-22bd902-20260722T232627Z",
-    "release": "buildo",
-    "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax",
-    "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
-    "annotations": [],
-    "ratio": 0.5995305371348123,
-    "delta": 4758378157.76416
+    "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildp-sparse-rmloss100-cae8640-20260728T011454Z",
+    "release": "buildp",
+    "construction": "scored as expiry reversal from enacted law; negated (exact for the same static world pair) | gov.irs.credits.ctc.amount.base[0].amount: -> 1000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.amount.adult_dependent: -> 0; gov.irs.credits.ctc.refundable.individual_max: -> 1000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.refundable.phase_in.threshold: -> 3000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.JOINT: -> 110000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SINGLE: -> 75000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD: -> 75000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SURVIVING_SPOUSE: -> 75000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SEPARATE: -> 55000 | RESOLVED AS BASELINE DEFINITION (Max 8/2, issue #13): JCT's provision-4 baseline = expiry world + provisions 1-3 (a constructible ReformRef), not an inherent convention gap. This run scores provision 4 LAST-IN-STACK (vs full current law) \u2014 a different, well-defined baseline. The 1.87 ratio vs JCT's stack position is dominated by interactions with the provisions that differ between the two baselines \u2014 chiefly personal exemptions (present on JCT's expiry side until provision 3 terminates them) and the expiry-side AMT/QBI/SALT rules shaping the liability that limits the nonrefundable CTC. UNBLOCK: build baseline_k ReformRefs from CBO Jan-2025 Tax Parameters expiry projections (source already cited in the contrib bracket yaml); registered in RUNNABILITY.md.",
+    "computed_at": "2026-08-03T00:56:11.444990+00:00",
+    "annotations": [
+     "LAST-IN-STACK baseline (vs full current law); JCT scores at stack position 4 (expiry + provisions 1-3) \u2014 baseline_k ReformRef build registered",
+     "PE CY2026 vs JCT FY2026"
+    ],
+    "ratio": 1.869415639402079,
+    "delta": -42400531318.0
    },
    "results": [
     {
-     "value": -7123621842.23584,
+     "value": -85642146969.64697,
+     "status": "constructed",
+     "engine_version": "1.729.0",
+     "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-f0af251-703bd81a565c-20260620T201958Z",
+     "release": "f0af251",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:stacked_chained:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "computed_at": "2026-06-20T20:19:58",
+     "annotations": []
+    },
+    {
+     "value": -85857310019.36963,
+     "status": "constructed",
+     "engine_version": "1.752.2",
+     "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-sparse-l0-refit-57k-71a0887-national-only-20260701",
+     "release": "l0-refit",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:isolated:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "computed_at": "2026-07-01T00:00:00",
+     "annotations": []
+    },
+    {
+     "value": -90628266316.41602,
+     "status": "constructed",
+     "engine_version": "1.764.6",
+     "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildi-sparse-rmloss100-6e8e929-20260709T034135Z",
+     "release": "buildi",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "computed_at": "2026-07-09T03:41:35",
+     "annotations": []
+    },
+    {
+     "value": -88750704657.55127,
+     "status": "constructed",
+     "engine_version": "1.764.6",
+     "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildj-sparse-rmloss100-75d5add-20260710T094201Z",
+     "release": "buildj",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "computed_at": "2026-07-10T09:42:01",
+     "annotations": []
+    },
+    {
+     "value": -89064547927.9414,
      "status": "constructed",
      "engine_version": "1.764.6",
      "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildo-sparse-rmloss100-22bd902-20260722T232627Z",
      "release": "buildo",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
      "annotations": []
-    }
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-   "diagnosis": null
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-   "source": "jct",
-   "source_column": "federal.arpa_ctc_2021",
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-   "window": "FY2021+FY2022 (single tax year 2021)",
-   "publication_title": "JCT JCX-14-21 (3/9/2021), H.R.1319 as amended: Child Tax Credit improvements for 2021, FY21 -$25,826M + FY22 -$79,249M",
-   "url": "https://www.jct.gov/publications/2021/jcx-14-21/",
-   "metric": "revenue_change",
-   "unit_concept": "usd",
-   "value_kind": "usd",
-   "period": 2021,
-   "time_basis": "annual",
-   "period_start": null,
-   "period_end": null,
-   "geography": "US",
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-   "conditions": {
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-   "reform_framework": "policy_ref",
-   "reform_key": "a8b5d475eb438674",
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-   "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
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-    "status": "constructed",
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-    "release": "buildo",
-    "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax",
-    "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
-    "annotations": [],
-    "ratio": 0.8236821309882868,
-    "delta": 18526600086.40576
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-   "results": [
+    },
     {
-     "value": -86548399913.59424,
+     "value": -91169531318.0,
      "status": "constructed",
      "engine_version": "1.764.6",
-     "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildo-sparse-rmloss100-22bd902-20260722T232627Z",
-     "release": "buildo",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax",
-     "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
-     "annotations": []
+     "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildp-sparse-rmloss100-cae8640-20260728T011454Z",
+     "release": "buildp",
+     "construction": "scored as expiry reversal from enacted law; negated (exact for the same static world pair) | gov.irs.credits.ctc.amount.base[0].amount: -> 1000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.amount.adult_dependent: -> 0; gov.irs.credits.ctc.refundable.individual_max: -> 1000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.refundable.phase_in.threshold: -> 3000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.JOINT: -> 110000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SINGLE: -> 75000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD: -> 75000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SURVIVING_SPOUSE: -> 75000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SEPARATE: -> 55000 | RESOLVED AS BASELINE DEFINITION (Max 8/2, issue #13): JCT's provision-4 baseline = expiry world + provisions 1-3 (a constructible ReformRef), not an inherent convention gap. This run scores provision 4 LAST-IN-STACK (vs full current law) \u2014 a different, well-defined baseline. The 1.87 ratio vs JCT's stack position is dominated by interactions with the provisions that differ between the two baselines \u2014 chiefly personal exemptions (present on JCT's expiry side until provision 3 terminates them) and the expiry-side AMT/QBI/SALT rules shaping the liability that limits the nonrefundable CTC. UNBLOCK: build baseline_k ReformRefs from CBO Jan-2025 Tax Parameters expiry projections (source already cited in the contrib bracket yaml); registered in RUNNABILITY.md.",
+     "computed_at": "2026-08-03T00:56:11.444990+00:00",
+     "annotations": [
+      "LAST-IN-STACK baseline (vs full current law); JCT scores at stack position 4 (expiry + provisions 1-3) \u2014 baseline_k ReformRef build registered",
+      "PE CY2026 vs JCT FY2026"
+     ]
     }
    ],
    "diagnosis": null
   },
   {
-   "claim_id": "de0e060283cedbdece46",
+   "claim_id": "1cb8833f070d370af65f",
    "source": "jct",
-   "source_column": "1. Extension and limited enhancement of reduced rates [1]",
-   "name": "1. Extension and limited enhancement of reduced rates [1]",
+   "source_column": "4. Permanent and expanded reinstatement of partial deduction for charitable contributions of individuals who do not elect to itemize",
+   "name": "4. Permanent and expanded reinstatement of partial deduction for charitable contributions of individuals who do not elect to itemize",
    "window": "",
    "publication_title": "Estimated Revenue Effects Relative To The Present Law Baseline Of The Tax Provisions In \u201cTitle VII \u2013 Finance\u201d Of The Substitute Legislation As Passed By The Senate To Provide For Reconciliation Of The Fiscal Year 2025 Budget",
    "url": "https://www.jct.gov/getattachment/eb21dc77-6439-4fc3-8f5d-fc23a8c377e0/x-35-25.pdf",
@@ -10774,16 +13706,16 @@
    "conditions": {
     "bill_version": "JCX-35-25",
     "geography": "US",
-    "provision": "1. Extension and limited enhancement of reduced rates [1]",
+    "provision": "4. Permanent and expanded reinstatement of partial deduction for charitable contributions of individuals who do not elect to itemize",
     "row_kind": "provision",
-    "table_section": "Chapter 1: Providing Permanent Tax Relief for Middle-Class Families and Workers"
+    "table_section": "Chapter 4: Investing in American Families, Communities, and Small Businesses Subchapter A - Permanent Investme"
    },
    "reform_framework": "policy_ref",
    "reform_key": "12ace32f57dd8364",
-   "external_value": -147679000000.0,
+   "external_value": -1543000000.0,
    "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
    "latest": {
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+    "value": -3484539280.26709,
     "status": "constructed",
     "engine_version": "1.764.6",
     "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildo-sparse-rmloss100-22bd902-20260722T232627Z",
@@ -10791,12 +13723,12 @@
     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
     "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
     "annotations": [],
-    "ratio": 1.389938039801566,
-    "delta": -57585659779.85547
+    "ratio": 2.258288580860071,
+    "delta": -1941539280.2670898
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    "results": [
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+     "value": -2948014748.9399414,
      "status": "constructed",
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@@ -10806,7 +13738,7 @@
      "annotations": []
     },
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-     "value": -190571706172.3506,
+     "value": -875131720.0639648,
      "status": "constructed",
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@@ -10816,7 +13748,7 @@
      "annotations": []
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     {
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+     "value": -3336161996.835449,
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@@ -10826,7 +13758,7 @@
      "annotations": []
     },
     {
-     "value": -217988675767.25195,
+     "value": -3364235878.944336,
      "status": "constructed",
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@@ -10836,7 +13768,7 @@
      "annotations": []
     },
     {
-     "value": -205264659779.85547,
+     "value": -3484539280.26709,
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@@ -10849,10 +13781,10 @@
    "diagnosis": null
   },
   {
-   "claim_id": "73ef6ebfd109b05e4d60",
+   "claim_id": "ecb717a9acc4a1b38078",
    "source": "jct",
-   "source_column": "1. No tax on tips (sunset 12/31/28) [5]",
-   "name": "1. No tax on tips (sunset 12/31/28) [5]",
+   "source_column": "5. 0.5 percent floor on deduction of contributions made by individuals",
+   "name": "5. 0.5 percent floor on deduction of contributions made by individuals",
    "window": "",
    "publication_title": "Estimated Revenue Effects Relative To The Present Law Baseline Of The Tax Provisions In \u201cTitle VII \u2013 Finance\u201d Of The Substitute Legislation As Passed By The Senate To Provide For Reconciliation Of The Fiscal Year 2025 Budget",
    "url": "https://www.jct.gov/getattachment/eb21dc77-6439-4fc3-8f5d-fc23a8c377e0/x-35-25.pdf",
@@ -10868,16 +13800,16 @@
    "conditions": {
     "bill_version": "JCX-35-25",
     "geography": "US",
-    "provision": "1. No tax on tips (sunset 12/31/28) [5]",
+    "provision": "5. 0.5 percent floor on deduction of contributions made by individuals",
     "row_kind": "provision",
-    "table_section": "Chapter 2: Delivering on Presidential Priorities to Provide New Middle-Class Tax Relief"
+    "table_section": "Chapter 4: Investing in American Families, Communities, and Small Businesses Subchapter A - Permanent Investme"
    },
    "reform_framework": "policy_ref",
    "reform_key": "12ace32f57dd8364",
-   "external_value": -10121000000.0,
+   "external_value": 1346000000.0,
    "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
    "latest": {
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+    "value": 7188068518.41748,
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     "engine_version": "1.764.6",
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@@ -10885,12 +13817,12 @@
     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
     "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
     "annotations": [],
-    "ratio": 0.1743619159110312,
-    "delta": 8356283049.064453
+    "ratio": 5.340318364351768,
+    "delta": 5842068518.41748
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@@ -10900,7 +13832,7 @@
      "annotations": []
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@@ -10910,7 +13842,7 @@
      "annotations": []
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    "reform_key": "12ace32f57dd8364",
-   "external_value": -5400000000.0,
+   "external_value": 86000000.0,
    "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
    "latest": {
-    "value": -1099249276.4453125,
+    "value": 427209320.93066406,
     "status": "constructed",
     "engine_version": "1.764.6",
     "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildo-sparse-rmloss100-22bd902-20260722T232627Z",
@@ -11449,12 +14381,12 @@
     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
     "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
     "annotations": [],
-    "ratio": 0.20356468082320603,
-    "delta": 4300750723.5546875
+    "ratio": 4.967550243379815,
+    "delta": 341209320.93066406
    },
    "results": [
     {
-     "value": 0.0,
+     "value": 662376582.5058594,
      "status": "constructed",
      "engine_version": "1.729.0",
      "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-f0af251-703bd81a565c-20260620T201958Z",
@@ -11494,7 +14426,7 @@
      "annotations": []
     },
     {
-     "value": -1099249276.4453125,
+     "value": 427209320.93066406,
      "status": "constructed",
      "engine_version": "1.764.6",
      "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildo-sparse-rmloss100-22bd902-20260722T232627Z",
@@ -11507,17 +14439,17 @@
    "diagnosis": null
   },
   {
-   "claim_id": "104dc5af09aca30514e5",
+   "claim_id": "f61517861ecfa27f64ef",
    "source": "jct",
-   "source_column": "3. Termination of deduction for personal exemptions other than temporary senior deduction [1]",
-   "name": "3. Termination of deduction for personal exemptions other than temporary senior deduction [1]",
+   "source_column": "1. Extension and limited enhancement of reduced rates [1]",
+   "name": "1. Extension and limited enhancement of reduced rates [1]",
    "window": "",
    "publication_title": "Estimated Revenue Effects Relative To The Present Law Baseline Of The Tax Provisions In \u201cTitle VII \u2013 Finance\u201d Of The Substitute Legislation As Passed By The Senate To Provide For Reconciliation Of The Fiscal Year 2025 Budget",
    "url": "https://www.jct.gov/getattachment/eb21dc77-6439-4fc3-8f5d-fc23a8c377e0/x-35-25.pdf",
    "metric": "revenue_change",
    "unit_concept": "usd",
    "value_kind": "usd",
-   "period": 2026,
+   "period": 2027,
    "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
    "period_start": null,
    "period_end": null,
@@ -11526,74 +14458,74 @@
    "conditions": {
     "bill_version": "JCX-35-25",
     "geography": "US",
-    "provision": "3. Termination of deduction for personal exemptions other than temporary senior deduction [1]",
+    "provision": "1. Extension and limited enhancement of reduced rates [1]",
     "row_kind": "provision",
     "table_section": "Chapter 1: Providing Permanent Tax Relief for Middle-Class Families and Workers"
    },
    "reform_framework": "policy_ref",
    "reform_key": "12ace32f57dd8364",
-   "external_value": 110625000000.0,
+   "external_value": -222154000000.0,
    "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
    "latest": {
-    "value": 137828497908.52393,
+    "value": -205264659779.85547,
     "status": "constructed",
     "engine_version": "1.764.6",
     "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildo-sparse-rmloss100-22bd902-20260722T232627Z",
     "release": "buildo",
-    "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+    "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2027",
     "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
     "annotations": [],
-    "ratio": 1.2459073257267699,
-    "delta": 27203497908.523926
+    "ratio": 0.9239746292205203,
+    "delta": 16889340220.144531
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    "results": [
     {
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+     "value": -195573235348.0337,
      "status": "constructed",
      "engine_version": "1.729.0",
      "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-f0af251-703bd81a565c-20260620T201958Z",
      "release": "f0af251",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:stacked_chained:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:stacked_chained:cy2026_for_fy2027",
      "computed_at": "2026-06-20T20:19:58",
      "annotations": []
     },
     {
-     "value": 214380228203.10742,
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      "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-sparse-l0-refit-57k-71a0887-national-only-20260701",
      "release": "l0-refit",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:isolated:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:isolated:cy2026_for_fy2027",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-01T00:00:00",
      "annotations": []
     },
     {
-     "value": 143107871121.56006,
+     "value": -219237808210.38477,
      "status": "constructed",
      "engine_version": "1.764.6",
      "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildi-sparse-rmloss100-6e8e929-20260709T034135Z",
      "release": "buildi",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2027",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-09T03:41:35",
      "annotations": []
     },
     {
-     "value": 140638766188.2578,
+     "value": -217988675767.25195,
      "status": "constructed",
      "engine_version": "1.764.6",
      "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildj-sparse-rmloss100-75d5add-20260710T094201Z",
      "release": "buildj",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2027",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-10T09:42:01",
      "annotations": []
     },
     {
-     "value": 137828497908.52393,
+     "value": -205264659779.85547,
      "status": "constructed",
      "engine_version": "1.764.6",
      "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildo-sparse-rmloss100-22bd902-20260722T232627Z",
      "release": "buildo",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2027",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
      "annotations": []
     }
@@ -11601,17 +14533,17 @@
    "diagnosis": null
   },
   {
-   "claim_id": "01304f138bf44f724ef0",
+   "claim_id": "f227bd9991831f737066",
    "source": "jct",
-   "source_column": "4. Extension and enhancement of increased child tax credit [1]",
-   "name": "4. Extension and enhancement of increased child tax credit [1]",
+   "source_column": "1. No tax on tips (sunset 12/31/28) [5]",
+   "name": "1. No tax on tips (sunset 12/31/28) [5]",
    "window": "",
    "publication_title": "Estimated Revenue Effects Relative To The Present Law Baseline Of The Tax Provisions In \u201cTitle VII \u2013 Finance\u201d Of The Substitute Legislation As Passed By The Senate To Provide For Reconciliation Of The Fiscal Year 2025 Budget",
    "url": "https://www.jct.gov/getattachment/eb21dc77-6439-4fc3-8f5d-fc23a8c377e0/x-35-25.pdf",
    "metric": "revenue_change",
    "unit_concept": "usd",
    "value_kind": "usd",
-   "period": 2026,
+   "period": 2027,
    "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
    "period_start": null,
    "period_end": null,
@@ -11620,108 +14552,92 @@
    "conditions": {
     "bill_version": "JCX-35-25",
     "geography": "US",
-    "provision": "4. Extension and enhancement of increased child tax credit [1]",
+    "provision": "1. No tax on tips (sunset 12/31/28) [5]",
     "row_kind": "provision",
-    "table_section": "Chapter 1: Providing Permanent Tax Relief for Middle-Class Families and Workers"
+    "table_section": "Chapter 2: Delivering on Presidential Priorities to Provide New Middle-Class Tax Relief"
    },
    "reform_framework": "policy_ref",
    "reform_key": "12ace32f57dd8364",
-   "external_value": -48769000000.0,
+   "external_value": -7664000000.0,
    "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
    "latest": {
-    "value": -91169531318.0,
+    "value": -1764716950.9355469,
     "status": "constructed",
     "engine_version": "1.764.6",
-    "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildp-sparse-rmloss100-cae8640-20260728T011454Z",
-    "release": "buildp",
-    "construction": "scored as expiry reversal from enacted law; negated (exact for the same static world pair) | gov.irs.credits.ctc.amount.base[0].amount: -> 1000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.amount.adult_dependent: -> 0; gov.irs.credits.ctc.refundable.individual_max: -> 1000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.refundable.phase_in.threshold: -> 3000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.JOINT: -> 110000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SINGLE: -> 75000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD: -> 75000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SURVIVING_SPOUSE: -> 75000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SEPARATE: -> 55000 | RESOLVED AS BASELINE DEFINITION (Max 8/2, issue #13): JCT's provision-4 baseline = expiry world + provisions 1-3 (a constructible ReformRef), not an inherent convention gap. This run scores provision 4 LAST-IN-STACK (vs full current law) \u2014 a different, well-defined baseline. The 1.87 ratio vs JCT's stack position is dominated by interactions with the provisions that differ between the two baselines \u2014 chiefly personal exemptions (present on JCT's expiry side until provision 3 terminates them) and the expiry-side AMT/QBI/SALT rules shaping the liability that limits the nonrefundable CTC. UNBLOCK: build baseline_k ReformRefs from CBO Jan-2025 Tax Parameters expiry projections (source already cited in the contrib bracket yaml); registered in RUNNABILITY.md.",
-    "computed_at": "2026-08-03T00:56:11.444990+00:00",
-    "annotations": [
-     "LAST-IN-STACK baseline (vs full current law); JCT scores at stack position 4 (expiry + provisions 1-3) \u2014 baseline_k ReformRef build registered",
-     "PE CY2026 vs JCT FY2026"
-    ],
-    "ratio": 1.869415639402079,
-    "delta": -42400531318.0
+    "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildo-sparse-rmloss100-22bd902-20260722T232627Z",
+    "release": "buildo",
+    "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2027",
+    "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
+    "annotations": [],
+    "ratio": 0.23026056249159013,
+    "delta": 5899283049.064453
    },
    "results": [
     {
-     "value": -85642146969.64697,
+     "value": -3497376183.126465,
      "status": "constructed",
      "engine_version": "1.729.0",
      "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-f0af251-703bd81a565c-20260620T201958Z",
      "release": "f0af251",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:stacked_chained:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:stacked_chained:cy2026_for_fy2027",
      "computed_at": "2026-06-20T20:19:58",
      "annotations": []
     },
     {
-     "value": -85857310019.36963,
+     "value": 0.0,
      "status": "constructed",
      "engine_version": "1.752.2",
      "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-sparse-l0-refit-57k-71a0887-national-only-20260701",
      "release": "l0-refit",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:isolated:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:isolated:cy2026_for_fy2027",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-01T00:00:00",
      "annotations": []
     },
     {
-     "value": -90628266316.41602,
+     "value": 0.0,
      "status": "constructed",
      "engine_version": "1.764.6",
      "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildi-sparse-rmloss100-6e8e929-20260709T034135Z",
      "release": "buildi",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2027",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-09T03:41:35",
      "annotations": []
     },
     {
-     "value": -88750704657.55127,
+     "value": 0.0,
      "status": "constructed",
      "engine_version": "1.764.6",
      "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildj-sparse-rmloss100-75d5add-20260710T094201Z",
      "release": "buildj",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2027",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-10T09:42:01",
      "annotations": []
     },
     {
-     "value": -89064547927.9414,
+     "value": -1764716950.9355469,
      "status": "constructed",
      "engine_version": "1.764.6",
      "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildo-sparse-rmloss100-22bd902-20260722T232627Z",
      "release": "buildo",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2027",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
      "annotations": []
-    },
-    {
-     "value": -91169531318.0,
-     "status": "constructed",
-     "engine_version": "1.764.6",
-     "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildp-sparse-rmloss100-cae8640-20260728T011454Z",
-     "release": "buildp",
-     "construction": "scored as expiry reversal from enacted law; negated (exact for the same static world pair) | gov.irs.credits.ctc.amount.base[0].amount: -> 1000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.amount.adult_dependent: -> 0; gov.irs.credits.ctc.refundable.individual_max: -> 1000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.refundable.phase_in.threshold: -> 3000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.JOINT: -> 110000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SINGLE: -> 75000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD: -> 75000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SURVIVING_SPOUSE: -> 75000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SEPARATE: -> 55000 | RESOLVED AS BASELINE DEFINITION (Max 8/2, issue #13): JCT's provision-4 baseline = expiry world + provisions 1-3 (a constructible ReformRef), not an inherent convention gap. This run scores provision 4 LAST-IN-STACK (vs full current law) \u2014 a different, well-defined baseline. The 1.87 ratio vs JCT's stack position is dominated by interactions with the provisions that differ between the two baselines \u2014 chiefly personal exemptions (present on JCT's expiry side until provision 3 terminates them) and the expiry-side AMT/QBI/SALT rules shaping the liability that limits the nonrefundable CTC. UNBLOCK: build baseline_k ReformRefs from CBO Jan-2025 Tax Parameters expiry projections (source already cited in the contrib bracket yaml); registered in RUNNABILITY.md.",
-     "computed_at": "2026-08-03T00:56:11.444990+00:00",
-     "annotations": [
-      "LAST-IN-STACK baseline (vs full current law); JCT scores at stack position 4 (expiry + provisions 1-3) \u2014 baseline_k ReformRef build registered",
-      "PE CY2026 vs JCT FY2026"
-     ]
     }
    ],
    "diagnosis": null
   },
   {
-   "claim_id": "1cb8833f070d370af65f",
+   "claim_id": "7bd53e20cde8c5e5fbcc",
    "source": "jct",
-   "source_column": "4. Permanent and expanded reinstatement of partial deduction for charitable contributions of individuals who do not elect to itemize",
-   "name": "4. Permanent and expanded reinstatement of partial deduction for charitable contributions of individuals who do not elect to itemize",
+   "source_column": "10. Termination of miscellaneous itemized deductions other than educator expenses",
+   "name": "10. Termination of miscellaneous itemized deductions other than educator expenses",
    "window": "",
    "publication_title": "Estimated Revenue Effects Relative To The Present Law Baseline Of The Tax Provisions In \u201cTitle VII \u2013 Finance\u201d Of The Substitute Legislation As Passed By The Senate To Provide For Reconciliation Of The Fiscal Year 2025 Budget",
    "url": "https://www.jct.gov/getattachment/eb21dc77-6439-4fc3-8f5d-fc23a8c377e0/x-35-25.pdf",
    "metric": "revenue_change",
    "unit_concept": "usd",
    "value_kind": "usd",
-   "period": 2026,
+   "period": 2027,
    "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
    "period_start": null,
    "period_end": null,
@@ -11730,74 +14646,74 @@
    "conditions": {
     "bill_version": "JCX-35-25",
     "geography": "US",
-    "provision": "4. Permanent and expanded reinstatement of partial deduction for charitable contributions of individuals who do not elect to itemize",
+    "provision": "10. Termination of miscellaneous itemized deductions other than educator expenses",
     "row_kind": "provision",
-    "table_section": "Chapter 4: Investing in American Families, Communities, and Small Businesses Subchapter A - Permanent Investme"
+    "table_section": "Chapter 1: Providing Permanent Tax Relief for Middle-Class Families and Workers"
    },
    "reform_framework": "policy_ref",
    "reform_key": "12ace32f57dd8364",
-   "external_value": -1543000000.0,
+   "external_value": 23707000000.0,
    "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
    "latest": {
-    "value": -3484539280.26709,
+    "value": 15174625541.742188,
     "status": "constructed",
     "engine_version": "1.764.6",
     "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildo-sparse-rmloss100-22bd902-20260722T232627Z",
     "release": "buildo",
-    "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+    "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2027",
     "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
     "annotations": [],
-    "ratio": 2.258288580860071,
-    "delta": -1941539280.2670898
+    "ratio": 0.6400905024567507,
+    "delta": -8532374458.2578125
    },
    "results": [
     {
-     "value": -2948014748.9399414,
+     "value": 16987843852.270508,
      "status": "constructed",
      "engine_version": "1.729.0",
      "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-f0af251-703bd81a565c-20260620T201958Z",
      "release": "f0af251",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:stacked_chained:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:stacked_chained:cy2026_for_fy2027",
      "computed_at": "2026-06-20T20:19:58",
      "annotations": []
     },
     {
-     "value": -875131720.0639648,
+     "value": 0.0,
      "status": "constructed",
      "engine_version": "1.752.2",
      "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-sparse-l0-refit-57k-71a0887-national-only-20260701",
      "release": "l0-refit",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:isolated:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:isolated:cy2026_for_fy2027",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-01T00:00:00",
      "annotations": []
     },
     {
-     "value": -3336161996.835449,
+     "value": 0.0,
      "status": "constructed",
      "engine_version": "1.764.6",
      "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildi-sparse-rmloss100-6e8e929-20260709T034135Z",
      "release": "buildi",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2027",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-09T03:41:35",
      "annotations": []
     },
     {
-     "value": -3364235878.944336,
+     "value": 0.0,
      "status": "constructed",
      "engine_version": "1.764.6",
      "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildj-sparse-rmloss100-75d5add-20260710T094201Z",
      "release": "buildj",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2027",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-10T09:42:01",
      "annotations": []
     },
     {
-     "value": -3484539280.26709,
+     "value": 15174625541.742188,
      "status": "constructed",
      "engine_version": "1.764.6",
      "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildo-sparse-rmloss100-22bd902-20260722T232627Z",
      "release": "buildo",
-     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2026",
+     "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:cy2026_for_fy2027",
      "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
      "annotations": []
     }
@@ -11805,17 +14721,17 @@
    "diagnosis": null
   },
   {
-   "claim_id": "ecb717a9acc4a1b38078",
+   "claim_id": "89ea72f1651301083a8e",
    "source": "jct",
-   "source_column": "5. 0.5 percent floor on deduction of contributions made by individuals",
-   "name": "5. 0.5 percent floor on deduction of contributions made by individuals",
+   "source_column": "11. Limitation on tax benefit of itemized deductions",
+   "name": "11. Limitation on tax benefit of itemized deductions",
    "window": "",
    "publication_title": "Estimated Revenue Effects Relative To The Present Law Baseline Of The Tax Provisions In \u201cTitle VII \u2013 Finance\u201d Of The Substitute Legislation As Passed By The Senate To Provide For Reconciliation Of The Fiscal Year 2025 Budget",
    "url": "https://www.jct.gov/getattachment/eb21dc77-6439-4fc3-8f5d-fc23a8c377e0/x-35-25.pdf",
    "metric": "revenue_change",
    "unit_concept": "usd",
    "value_kind": "usd",
-   "period": 2026,
+   "period": 2027,
    "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
    "period_start": null,
    "period_end": null,
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@@ -14974,80 +17920,80 @@
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+    "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
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+    "construction": "reversal of enacted measure on certified 2026 world: gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.flat_rate: 0.0 -> 3.15 (tree's own 2023 value); reform={\"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.flat_rate\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 3.15}}",
+    "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+    "annotations": [
+     "signed PE effect -563027614 GBP (measure direction, magnitude compared)",
+     "external anchor = sum of the measure's 4 component rows at FY2026 (-403140457 GBP); this result anchors to the largest component \u2014 compare against the annotated total, not this row's value",
+     "reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) \u2014 baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual",
+     "confidence: high"
+    ],
+    "ratio": -1.5709482414618297,
+    "delta": 921427464.3229477
+   },
+   "results": [
+    {
+     "value": 563027614.2353287,
+     "status": "constructed",
+     "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+     "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+     "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+     "construction": "reversal of enacted measure on certified 2026 world: gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.flat_rate: 0.0 -> 3.15 (tree's own 2023 value); reform={\"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.flat_rate\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 3.15}}",
+     "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+     "annotations": [
+      "signed PE effect -563027614 GBP (measure direction, magnitude compared)",
+      "external anchor = sum of the measure's 4 component rows at FY2026 (-403140457 GBP); this result anchors to the largest component \u2014 compare against the annotated total, not this row's value",
+      "reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) \u2014 baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual",
+      "confidence: high"
+     ]
+    }
+   ],
+   "diagnosis": null
+  },
+  {
+   "claim_id": "1c463c251f1689511db2",
+   "source": "obr",
+   "source_column": "2026-27",
+   "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)",
+   "window": "",
+   "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)",
+   "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx",
+   "metric": "revenue_change",
+   "unit_concept": "gbp",
+   "value_kind": "gbp",
+   "period": 2026,
+   "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
+   "period_start": null,
+   "period_end": null,
+   "geography": "UK",
+   "program": null,
+   "conditions": {
+    "basis": "forecast",
+    "costing_phase": "original_scorecard",
+    "fiscal_event": "Spring Budget 2024",
+    "fy": "2026-27",
+    "geography": "UK",
+    "measure": "National Insurance contributions (NICs): 2 percentage point cut to the main rate of Class 1 employee NICs from 6 April 2024",
+    "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer",
+    "tax_head": "NICs"
+   },
+   "reform_framework": "policy_ref",
+   "reform_key": "0168155b3f44c11a",
+   "external_value": -9619251699.103523,
+   "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
+   "latest": {
+    "value": 12070073647.428864,
+    "status": "constructed",
+    "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+    "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+    "construction": "reversal of enacted measure on certified 2026 world: gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main: 0.08 -> 0.1; reform={\"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.1}}",
+    "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+    "annotations": [
+     "signed PE effect -12070073647 GBP (measure direction, magnitude compared)",
+     "external anchor = sum of the measure's 6 component rows at FY2026 (-10465234282 GBP); this result anchors to the largest component \u2014 compare against the annotated total, not this row's value",
+     "reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) \u2014 baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual",
+     "confidence: high"
+    ],
+    "ratio": -1.2547830148319903,
+    "delta": 21689325346.532387
+   },
+   "results": [
+    {
+     "value": 12070073647.428864,
+     "status": "constructed",
+     "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+     "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+     "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+     "construction": "reversal of enacted measure on certified 2026 world: gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main: 0.08 -> 0.1; reform={\"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.1}}",
+     "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+     "annotations": [
+      "signed PE effect -12070073647 GBP (measure direction, magnitude compared)",
+      "external anchor = sum of the measure's 6 component rows at FY2026 (-10465234282 GBP); this result anchors to the largest component \u2014 compare against the annotated total, not this row's value",
+      "reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) \u2014 baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual",
+      "confidence: high"
+     ]
+    }
+   ],
+   "diagnosis": null
+  },
+  {
+   "claim_id": "2b6f2ec0d57b9de861cd",
+   "source": "obr",
+   "source_column": "2026-27",
+   "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)",
+   "window": "",
+   "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)",
+   "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx",
+   "metric": "revenue_change",
+   "unit_concept": "gbp",
+   "value_kind": "gbp",
+   "period": 2026,
+   "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
+   "period_start": null,
+   "period_end": null,
+   "geography": "UK",
+   "program": null,
+   "conditions": {
+    "basis": "forecast",
+    "costing_phase": "original_scorecard",
+    "fiscal_event": "Autumn Budget 2024",
+    "fy": "2026-27",
+    "geography": "UK",
+    "measure": "Capital Gains Tax: Increase the main rates of CGT to 18% and 24% from 30 October 2024, and the Business Asset Disposal Relief (BADR) and Investors' Relief (IR) rate to 14% from 6 April 2025 and to 18% from 6 April 2026 ",
+    "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer",
+    "tax_head": "Income tax"
+   },
+   "reform_framework": "policy_ref",
+   "reform_key": "84710a21502c6dae",
+   "external_value": 1262326238.2390866,
+   "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
+   "latest": {
+    "value": 2832564125.7933006,
+    "status": "constructed",
+    "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+    "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+    "construction": "reversal of enacted measure on certified 2026 world: gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate: 0.18 -> 0.10; gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate: 0.24 -> 0.20; reform={\"gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.1}, \"gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.2}}",
+    "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+    "annotations": [
+     "signed PE effect 2832564126 GBP (measure direction, magnitude compared)",
+     "external anchor = sum of the measure's 3 component rows at FY2026 (1292432022 GBP); this result anchors to the largest component \u2014 compare against the annotated total, not this row's value",
+     "reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) \u2014 baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual",
+     "confidence: high; PE static (no forestalling/behavioral)"
+    ],
+    "ratio": 2.2439239873082704,
+    "delta": 1570237887.554214
+   },
+   "results": [
+    {
+     "value": 2832564125.7933006,
+     "status": "constructed",
+     "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+     "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+     "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+     "construction": "reversal of enacted measure on certified 2026 world: gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate: 0.18 -> 0.10; gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate: 0.24 -> 0.20; reform={\"gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.1}, \"gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.2}}",
+     "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+     "annotations": [
+      "signed PE effect 2832564126 GBP (measure direction, magnitude compared)",
+      "external anchor = sum of the measure's 3 component rows at FY2026 (1292432022 GBP); this result anchors to the largest component \u2014 compare against the annotated total, not this row's value",
+      "reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) \u2014 baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual",
+      "confidence: high; PE static (no forestalling/behavioral)"
+     ]
+    }
+   ],
+   "diagnosis": null
+  },
+  {
+   "claim_id": "4e10449ce5bd0a9a09ca",
+   "source": "obr",
+   "source_column": "2026-27",
+   "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)",
+   "window": "",
+   "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)",
+   "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx",
+   "metric": "revenue_change",
+   "unit_concept": "gbp",
+   "value_kind": "gbp",
+   "period": 2026,
+   "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
+   "period_start": null,
+   "period_end": null,
+   "geography": "UK",
+   "program": null,
+   "conditions": {
+    "basis": "forecast",
+    "costing_phase": "original_scorecard",
+    "fiscal_event": "Spring Statement 2022",
+    "fy": "2026-27",
+    "geography": "UK",
+    "measure": "National Insurance: increase annual primary threshold and lower profits limit to \u00a312,570 from July 2022",
+    "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer",
+    "tax_head": "NICs"
+   },
+   "reform_framework": "policy_ref",
+   "reform_key": "fa7e1025cfae45ef",
+   "external_value": -4250248911.606618,
+   "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
+   "latest": {
+    "value": 5833696943.071625,
+    "status": "constructed",
+    "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+    "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+    "construction": "reversal of enacted measure on certified 2026 world: gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold: 241.73 -> 190.00/wk; gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit: 12570.0 -> 9880.0; reform={\"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 189.99923076923076}, \"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 9880.0}}",
+    "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+    "annotations": [
+     "signed PE effect -5833696943 GBP (measure direction, magnitude compared)",
+     "external anchor = sum of the measure's 5 component rows at FY2026 (-4702119816 GBP); this result anchors to the largest component \u2014 compare against the annotated total, not this row's value",
+     "reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) \u2014 baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual",
+     "confidence: LOW (announcement-vintage \u00a32,690 gap; counterfactual uprating path unknowable)"
+    ],
+    "ratio": -1.3725541878596599,
+    "delta": 10083945854.678242
+   },
+   "results": [
+    {
+     "value": 5833696943.071625,
+     "status": "constructed",
+     "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+     "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+     "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+     "construction": "reversal of enacted measure on certified 2026 world: gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold: 241.73 -> 190.00/wk; gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit: 12570.0 -> 9880.0; reform={\"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 189.99923076923076}, \"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 9880.0}}",
+     "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+     "annotations": [
+      "signed PE effect -5833696943 GBP (measure direction, magnitude compared)",
+      "external anchor = sum of the measure's 5 component rows at FY2026 (-4702119816 GBP); this result anchors to the largest component \u2014 compare against the annotated total, not this row's value",
+      "reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) \u2014 baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual",
+      "confidence: LOW (announcement-vintage \u00a32,690 gap; counterfactual uprating path unknowable)"
+     ]
+    }
+   ],
+   "diagnosis": null
+  },
+  {
+   "claim_id": "51c129f1247fe3aaf656",
+   "source": "obr",
+   "source_column": "2026-27",
+   "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)",
+   "window": "",
+   "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)",
+   "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx",
+   "metric": "revenue_change",
+   "unit_concept": "gbp",
+   "value_kind": "gbp",
+   "period": 2026,
+   "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
+   "period_start": null,
+   "period_end": null,
+   "geography": "UK",
+   "program": null,
+   "conditions": {
+    "basis": "forecast",
+    "costing_phase": "original_scorecard",
+    "fiscal_event": "Autumn Statement 2023",
+    "fy": "2026-27",
+    "geography": "UK",
+    "measure": "National Insurance contributions (NICs): 1p cut to the main rate of Class 4 self-employed NICs from April 2024",
+    "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer",
+    "tax_head": "NICs"
+   },
+   "reform_framework": "policy_ref",
+   "reform_key": "b01de664ed4a5540",
+   "external_value": -330136761.76593643,
+   "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
+   "latest": {
+    "value": 1755439439.4202042,
+    "status": "constructed",
+    "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+    "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+    "construction": "reversal of enacted measure on certified 2026 world: gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main: 0.06 -> 0.09; reform={\"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.09}}",
+    "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+    "annotations": [
+     "signed PE effect -1755439439 GBP (measure direction, magnitude compared)",
+     "external anchor = sum of the measure's 4 component rows at FY2026 (-348009098 GBP); this result anchors to the largest component \u2014 compare against the annotated total, not this row's value",
+     "reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) \u2014 baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual",
+     "confidence: stack (AS2023 1p + SB2024 2p); external row is the 1p leg \u2014 compare via differencing vs tranche-1 class4_1pp"
+    ],
+    "ratio": -5.317309802247326,
+    "delta": 2085576201.1861405
+   },
+   "results": [
+    {
+     "value": 1755439439.4202042,
+     "status": "constructed",
+     "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+     "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+     "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+     "construction": "reversal of enacted measure on certified 2026 world: gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main: 0.06 -> 0.09; reform={\"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.09}}",
+     "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+     "annotations": [
+      "signed PE effect -1755439439 GBP (measure direction, magnitude compared)",
+      "external anchor = sum of the measure's 4 component rows at FY2026 (-348009098 GBP); this result anchors to the largest component \u2014 compare against the annotated total, not this row's value",
+      "reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) \u2014 baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual",
+      "confidence: stack (AS2023 1p + SB2024 2p); external row is the 1p leg \u2014 compare via differencing vs tranche-1 class4_1pp"
+     ]
+    }
+   ],
+   "diagnosis": null
+  },
+  {
+   "claim_id": "b22705f1bcc9a6d78eda",
+   "source": "obr",
+   "source_column": "2026-27",
+   "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)",
+   "window": "",
+   "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)",
+   "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx",
+   "metric": "revenue_change",
+   "unit_concept": "gbp",
+   "value_kind": "gbp",
+   "period": 2026,
+   "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
+   "period_start": null,
+   "period_end": null,
+   "geography": "UK",
+   "program": null,
+   "conditions": {
+    "basis": "forecast",
+    "costing_phase": "original_scorecard",
+    "fiscal_event": "Autumn Statement 2023",
+    "fy": "2026-27",
+    "geography": "UK",
+    "measure": "National Insurance contributions (NICs): 2p cut to the main rate of Class 1 employee NICs from January 2024",
+    "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer",
+    "tax_head": "NICs"
+   },
+   "reform_framework": "policy_ref",
+   "reform_key": "f25434cc35c52770",
+   "external_value": -9343022622.888573,
+   "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
+   "latest": {
+    "value": 24142042648.760254,
+    "status": "constructed",
+    "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+    "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+    "construction": "reversal of enacted measure on certified 2026 world: gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main: 0.08 -> 0.12; reform={\"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.12}}",
+    "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+    "annotations": [
+     "signed PE effect -24142042649 GBP (measure direction, magnitude compared)",
+     "external anchor = sum of the measure's 4 component rows at FY2026 (-9068607177 GBP); this result anchors to the largest component \u2014 compare against the annotated total, not this row's value",
+     "reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) \u2014 baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual",
+     "confidence: high; AS2023 leg \u2248 p4\u2212p2 differencing"
+    ],
+    "ratio": -2.5839649140543646,
+    "delta": 33485065271.648827
+   },
+   "results": [
+    {
+     "value": 24142042648.760254,
+     "status": "constructed",
+     "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+     "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+     "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+     "construction": "reversal of enacted measure on certified 2026 world: gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main: 0.08 -> 0.12; reform={\"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.12}}",
+     "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+     "annotations": [
+      "signed PE effect -24142042649 GBP (measure direction, magnitude compared)",
+      "external anchor = sum of the measure's 4 component rows at FY2026 (-9068607177 GBP); this result anchors to the largest component \u2014 compare against the annotated total, not this row's value",
+      "reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) \u2014 baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual",
+      "confidence: high; AS2023 leg \u2248 p4\u2212p2 differencing"
+     ]
+    }
+   ],
+   "diagnosis": null
+  },
+  {
+   "claim_id": "bfd44ee49c00292b3101",
+   "source": "obr",
+   "source_column": "2026-27",
+   "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)",
+   "window": "",
+   "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)",
+   "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx",
+   "metric": "revenue_change",
+   "unit_concept": "gbp",
+   "value_kind": "gbp",
+   "period": 2026,
+   "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
    "period_start": null,
    "period_end": null,
-   "geography": "MN",
-   "program": "mn_cwfc",
+   "geography": "UK",
+   "program": null,
    "conditions": {
-    "geography": "MN",
-    "program": "mn_cwfc"
+    "basis": "forecast",
+    "costing_phase": "original_scorecard",
+    "fiscal_event": "Autumn Statement 2022",
+    "fy": "2026-27",
+    "geography": "UK",
+    "measure": "Income Tax: reduce additional rate threshold from \u00a3150,000 to \u00a3125,140 from April 2023",
+    "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer",
+    "tax_head": "Income tax"
    },
-   "reform_framework": "baseline",
-   "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849",
-   "external_value": 755500000.0,
+   "reform_framework": "policy_ref",
+   "reform_key": "e867c0fa0d8235e0",
+   "external_value": 792451863.1115595,
    "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
    "latest": {
-    "value": 831585233.4332116,
-    "status": "comparable",
-    "engine_version": "1.764.6",
-    "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildo-sparse-rmloss100-22bd902-20260722T232627Z",
-    "release": "buildo",
-    "construction": "level:mn_child_and_working_families_credits",
-    "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
-    "annotations": [],
-    "ratio": 1.1007084492828743,
-    "delta": 76085233.43321157
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+    "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
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+    "construction": "reversal of enacted measure on certified 2026 world: gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[2].threshold: 125140.0 -> 150000; reform={\"gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[2].threshold\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 150000}}",
+    "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+    "annotations": [
+     "signed PE effect 1787263536 GBP (measure direction, magnitude compared)",
+     "external anchor = sum of the measure's 3 component rows at FY2026 (783448087 GBP); this result anchors to the largest component \u2014 compare against the annotated total, not this row's value",
+     "reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) \u2014 baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual",
+     "confidence: high"
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    "results": [
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-     "release": "l0-refit",
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-     "release": "buildi",
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-     "computed_at": "2026-07-09T03:41:35",
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-     "release": "buildj",
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-     "computed_at": "2026-07-10T09:42:01",
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-     "release": "buildo",
-     "construction": "level:mn_child_and_working_families_credits",
-     "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
-     "annotations": []
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+     "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+     "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+     "construction": "reversal of enacted measure on certified 2026 world: gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[2].threshold: 125140.0 -> 150000; reform={\"gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[2].threshold\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 150000}}",
+     "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+     "annotations": [
+      "signed PE effect 1787263536 GBP (measure direction, magnitude compared)",
+      "external anchor = sum of the measure's 3 component rows at FY2026 (783448087 GBP); this result anchors to the largest component \u2014 compare against the annotated total, not this row's value",
+      "reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) \u2014 baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual",
+      "confidence: high"
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    ],
    "diagnosis": null
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-   "source": "mn_admin",
-   "source_column": "state_mn_wfc",
-   "name": "Minnesota Working Family Credit",
-   "window": "TY2024",
-   "publication_title": "Derived: House Research combined CTC+WFC $755.5M minus MN DOR CTC $564M (both TY2024)",
-   "url": "https://www.house.mn.gov/hrd/pubs/ss/sschldwfc.pdf",
-   "metric": "benefit_cost",
-   "unit_concept": "usd",
-   "value_kind": "usd",
-   "period": 2024,
-   "time_basis": "annual",
+   "claim_id": "c24a3e76ec3b6a8990da",
+   "source": "obr",
+   "source_column": "2026-27",
+   "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)",
+   "window": "",
+   "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)",
+   "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx",
+   "metric": "revenue_change",
+   "unit_concept": "gbp",
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+   "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
    "period_start": null,
    "period_end": null,
-   "geography": "MN",
-   "program": "mn_wfc",
+   "geography": "UK",
+   "program": null,
    "conditions": {
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-    "program": "mn_wfc"
+    "basis": "forecast",
+    "costing_phase": "original_scorecard",
+    "fiscal_event": "Autumn Budget 2021",
+    "fy": "2026-27",
+    "geography": "UK",
+    "measure": "Increase rates of dividend tax by 1.25% from April 2022",
+    "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer",
+    "tax_head": "Income tax"
    },
-   "reform_framework": "baseline",
-   "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849",
-   "external_value": 191500000.0,
+   "reform_framework": "policy_ref",
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    "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
    "latest": {
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     "status": "constructed",
-    "engine_version": "1.764.6",
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-    "release": "buildo",
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-    "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
-    "annotations": [],
-    "ratio": 1.201557680411589,
-    "delta": 38598295.7988193
+    "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+    "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+    "construction": "reversal of enacted measure on certified 2026 world: gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate: 0.1075 -> 0.09500; gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate: 0.3575 -> 0.34500; gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[2].rate: 0.3935 -> 0.38100; reform={\"gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.095}, \"gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.345}, \"gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[2].rate\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.381}}",
+    "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+    "annotations": [
+     "signed PE effect 619524446 GBP (measure direction, magnitude compared)",
+     "external anchor = sum of the measure's 5 component rows at FY2026 (868649889 GBP); this result anchors to the largest component \u2014 compare against the annotated total, not this row's value",
+     "reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) \u2014 baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual",
+     "confidence: delta-on-current (allowance changed since 2021 \u2014 vintage note)"
+    ],
+    "ratio": 1.0694888181229019,
+    "delta": 40252895.438704014
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-     "release": "l0-refit",
-     "construction": "level:mn_wfc",
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-     "release": "buildi",
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-     "release": "buildj",
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-     "computed_at": "2026-07-10T09:42:01",
-     "annotations": []
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      "status": "constructed",
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-     "release": "buildo",
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-     "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
-     "annotations": []
+     "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+     "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+     "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+     "construction": "reversal of enacted measure on certified 2026 world: gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate: 0.1075 -> 0.09500; gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate: 0.3575 -> 0.34500; gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[2].rate: 0.3935 -> 0.38100; reform={\"gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.095}, \"gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.345}, \"gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[2].rate\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.381}}",
+     "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+     "annotations": [
+      "signed PE effect 619524446 GBP (measure direction, magnitude compared)",
+      "external anchor = sum of the measure's 5 component rows at FY2026 (868649889 GBP); this result anchors to the largest component \u2014 compare against the annotated total, not this row's value",
+      "reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) \u2014 baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual",
+      "confidence: delta-on-current (allowance changed since 2021 \u2014 vintage note)"
+     ]
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    ],
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   {
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-   "name": "Missouri Working Family Tax Credit (20% nonrefundable)",
-   "window": "TY2024 (issued CY2025)",
-   "publication_title": "MO DOR Working Family Tax Credits Issued Calendar Year 2025: $46,062,034, 182,367 credits, avg $252.58 (Sec. 143.177.5 reports prior tax year; 20% rate confirmed for TY2024, trigger fired). TY2023 at 10%: $28.5M",
-   "url": "https://dor.mo.gov/public-reports/documents/2025-MO-WFTC-Report.pdf",
-   "metric": "benefit_cost",
-   "unit_concept": "usd",
-   "value_kind": "usd",
-   "period": 2024,
-   "time_basis": "annual",
+   "claim_id": "c891eea9496abe170baa",
+   "source": "obr",
+   "source_column": "2026-27",
+   "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)",
+   "window": "",
+   "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)",
+   "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx",
+   "metric": "revenue_change",
+   "unit_concept": "gbp",
+   "value_kind": "gbp",
+   "period": 2026,
+   "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
    "period_start": null,
    "period_end": null,
-   "geography": "MO",
-   "program": "mo_wftc",
+   "geography": "UK",
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    "conditions": {
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-    "program": "mo_wftc"
+    "basis": "forecast",
+    "costing_phase": "original_scorecard",
+    "fiscal_event": "Autumn Budget 2024",
+    "fy": "2026-27",
+    "geography": "UK",
+    "measure": "Employer National Insurance contributions: Increase rate by 1.2 ppts to 15%, cut the Secondary Threshold to \u00a35,000 until 5 April 2028 and uprate with CPI thereafter, increase Employment Allowance to \u00a310,500, remove the \u00a3100,000 Employment Allowance eligibility threshold",
+    "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer",
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-   "reform_framework": "baseline",
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-    "annotations": [],
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-    "delta": -15050607.91398099
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+    "construction": "reversal of enacted measure on certified 2026 world: gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employer: 0.15 -> 0.138; gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold: 96.0 -> 175.0/wk (tree's own 2024 value); reform={\"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employer\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.138}, \"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 175.0}}",
+    "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+    "annotations": [
+     "signed PE effect 26014010206 GBP (measure direction, magnitude compared)",
+     "external anchor = sum of the measure's 3 component rows at FY2026 (23714722782 GBP); this result anchors to the largest component \u2014 compare against the annotated total, not this row's value",
+     "reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) \u2014 baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual",
+     "confidence: high; wage-incidence spillover onto IT/employee NI recorded via gov_tax"
+    ],
+    "ratio": 1.0873903047481752,
+    "delta": 2090668152.6632729
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    "results": [
     {
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-     "release": "l0-refit",
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-     "release": "buildi",
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-     "computed_at": "2026-07-09T03:41:35",
-     "annotations": []
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-     "release": "buildj",
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-     "computed_at": "2026-07-10T09:42:01",
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-     "release": "buildo",
-     "construction": "level:mo_wftc",
-     "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27",
-     "annotations": []
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+     "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+     "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+     "construction": "reversal of enacted measure on certified 2026 world: gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employer: 0.15 -> 0.138; gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold: 96.0 -> 175.0/wk (tree's own 2024 value); reform={\"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employer\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.138}, \"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 175.0}}",
+     "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+     "annotations": [
+      "signed PE effect 26014010206 GBP (measure direction, magnitude compared)",
+      "external anchor = sum of the measure's 3 component rows at FY2026 (23714722782 GBP); this result anchors to the largest component \u2014 compare against the annotated total, not this row's value",
+      "reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) \u2014 baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual",
+      "confidence: high; wage-incidence spillover onto IT/employee NI recorded via gov_tax"
+     ]
+    }
+   ],
+   "diagnosis": null
+  },
+  {
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+   "source": "obr",
+   "source_column": "2026-27",
+   "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook March 2026 - detailed forecast tables: receipts",
+   "window": "",
+   "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook March 2026 - detailed forecast tables: receipts",
+   "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/d055fbf02d5b3g6jq8l2/efo-march-2026-detailed-forecast-tables-receipts.xlsx",
+   "metric": "revenue_level",
+   "unit_concept": "gbp",
+   "value_kind": "gbp",
+   "period": 2026,
+   "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
+   "period_start": null,
+   "period_end": null,
+   "geography": "UK",
+   "program": null,
+   "conditions": {
+    "basis": "forecast",
+    "data_vintage": "march_2026_efo",
+    "fy": "2026-27",
+    "geography": "UK",
+    "line_item": "National insurance contributions",
+    "table": "3.4"
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+   "reform_framework": "baseline",
+   "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849",
+   "external_value": 211594391642.42764,
+   "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target",
+   "latest": {
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+    "status": "constructed",
+    "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+    "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+    "construction": "national_insurance + ni_employer",
+    "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+    "annotations": [
+     "OBR/DWP fiscal year 2026-27 vs PE calendar 2026 (named delta); receipts/expenditure cash vs PE accrual entitlement/liability (named delta)"
+    ],
+    "ratio": 1.1670038209122284,
+    "delta": 35337071887.88391
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+   "results": [
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+     "status": "constructed",
+     "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+     "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+     "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+     "construction": "national_insurance + ni_employer",
+     "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+     "annotations": [
+      "OBR/DWP fiscal year 2026-27 vs PE calendar 2026 (named delta); receipts/expenditure cash vs PE accrual entitlement/liability (named delta)"
+     ]
     }
    ],
    "diagnosis": null
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   {
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-   "source": "mt_admin",
-   "source_column": "state_mt_eitc",
-   "name": "Montana EITC",
-   "window": "TY2024",
-   "publication_title": "Approximation: 10% statutory match x $156.1M federal EITC claimed in MT (IRS EITC Central, TY2024 returns processed in 2025)",
-   "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/statistics-for-tax-returns-with-the-earned-income-tax-credit-eitc",
-   "metric": "benefit_cost",
-   "unit_concept": "usd",
-   "value_kind": "usd",
-   "period": 2024,
-   "time_basis": "annual",
+   "claim_id": "32bea3ae511b89823a68",
+   "source": "obr",
+   "source_column": "2026-27",
+   "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook March 2026 - detailed forecast tables: receipts",
+   "window": "",
+   "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook March 2026 - detailed forecast tables: receipts",
+   "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/d055fbf02d5b3g6jq8l2/efo-march-2026-detailed-forecast-tables-receipts.xlsx",
+   "metric": "revenue_level",
+   "unit_concept": "gbp",
+   "value_kind": "gbp",
+   "period": 2026,
+   "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
    "period_start": null,
    "period_end": null,
-   "geography": "MT",
-   "program": "mt_eitc",
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@@ -17196,6 +20668,485 @@
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+    "engine_version": "policyengine-uk (installed, .venv-pe)",
+    "data_bundle": "parameter-tree-only",
+    "release": "rameter-tree",
+    "construction": "gov.dwp.universal_credit.standard_allowance.amount.SINGLE_YOUNG: 316.98 -> 338.58 across 2025-06-01\u21922026-06-01",
+    "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+    "annotations": [
+     "pure parameter check (no data artifact); April-2026 uprating in the installed policyengine-uk tree vs RF's published parameter set",
+     "checked via the single-under-25 standard allowance"
+    ],
+    "ratio": 1.0021044192804864,
+    "delta": 0.00014310051107307986
+   },
+   "results": [
+    {
+     "value": 0.06814310051107308,
+     "status": "comparable",
+     "engine_version": "policyengine-uk (installed, .venv-pe)",
+     "data_bundle": "parameter-tree-only",
+     "release": "rameter-tree",
+     "construction": "gov.dwp.universal_credit.standard_allowance.amount.SINGLE_YOUNG: 316.98 -> 338.58 across 2025-06-01\u21922026-06-01",
+     "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+     "annotations": [
+      "pure parameter check (no data artifact); April-2026 uprating in the installed policyengine-uk tree vs RF's published parameter set",
+      "checked via the single-under-25 standard allowance"
+     ]
+    }
+   ],
+   "diagnosis": null
+  },
+  {
+   "claim_id": "2bbcdb1b4c3d6f58cd92",
+   "source": "resolution_foundation",
+   "source_column": "April 2026 uprating: inflation-linked benefits",
+   "name": "Catching up? Benefit uprating policy for April 2026",
+   "window": "",
+   "publication_title": "Catching up? Benefit uprating policy for April 2026",
+   "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/catching-up/",
+   "metric": "benefit_uprating",
+   "unit_concept": "share",
+   "value_kind": "share",
+   "period": 2026,
+   "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
+   "period_start": null,
+   "period_end": null,
+   "geography": "UK",
+   "program": "inflation-linked benefits",
+   "conditions": {
+    "fy": "2026-27",
+    "geography": "UK",
+    "program": "inflation-linked benefits",
+    "uprating_event": "April 2026"
+   },
+   "reform_framework": "baseline",
+   "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849",
+   "external_value": 0.038,
+   "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
+   "latest": {
+    "value": 0.03801099689218268,
+    "status": "comparable",
+    "engine_version": "policyengine-uk (installed, .venv-pe)",
+    "data_bundle": "parameter-tree-only",
+    "release": "rameter-tree",
+    "construction": "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.amount: 292.81 -> 303.94 across 2025-06-01\u21922026-06-01",
+    "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+    "annotations": [
+     "pure parameter check (no data artifact); April-2026 uprating in the installed policyengine-uk tree vs RF's published parameter set",
+     "checked via the UC child element, a CPI-linked parameter"
+    ],
+    "ratio": 1.0002893918995441,
+    "delta": 1.0996892182681128e-05
+   },
+   "results": [
+    {
+     "value": 0.03801099689218268,
+     "status": "comparable",
+     "engine_version": "policyengine-uk (installed, .venv-pe)",
+     "data_bundle": "parameter-tree-only",
+     "release": "rameter-tree",
+     "construction": "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.amount: 292.81 -> 303.94 across 2025-06-01\u21922026-06-01",
+     "computed_at": "2026-08-02T20:00:00",
+     "annotations": [
+      "pure parameter check (no data artifact); April-2026 uprating in the installed policyengine-uk tree vs RF's published parameter set",
+      "checked via the UC child element, a CPI-linked parameter"
+     ]
+    }
+   ],
+   "diagnosis": null
+  },
+  {
+   "claim_id": "e1dc7322df64e3aa80b5",
+   "source": "resolution_foundation",
+   "source_column": "cost to Government of two-child limit removal",
+   "name": "Living Standards Outlook 2026",
+   "window": "",
+   "publication_title": "Living Standards Outlook 2026",
+   "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/living-standards-outlook-2026/",
+   "metric": "exchequer_impact",
+   "unit_concept": "gbp",
+   "value_kind": "gbp",
+   "period": 2026,
+   "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
+   "period_start": null,
+   "period_end": null,
+   "geography": "UK",
+   "program": null,
+   "conditions": {
+    "attribution": "HM Treasury, Budget 2025 Table 4.1 (cited by RF)",
+    "fy": "2026-27",
+    "geography": "UK",
+    "measure": "repeal two-child limit in UC (and legacy CTC) from April 2026; policyengine-uk: gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit (and tax credits analogue)",
+    "measure_note": "exchequer cost",
+    "source_metric": "reform_fiscal_cost"
+   },
+   "reform_framework": "policy_ref",
+   "reform_key": "5bb416c9316441b0",
+   "external_value": 2400000000.0,
+   "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
+   "latest": {
+    "value": 1104248292.8024673,
+    "status": "constructed",
+    "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+    "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+    "construction": "PE UC-only static cost of 2CL removal, CY2026, calibrated take-up",
+    "computed_at": "2026-08-02T18:11:52.738422+00:00",
+    "annotations": [
+     "entitlements-basis: 1.85bn",
+     "external HMT costing includes legacy-CTC scope + OBR-certified take-up response (named scopes)",
+     "cost triangle: 1.10 calibrated / 1.85 entitlements / 2.4 HMT"
+    ],
+    "ratio": 0.4601034553343614,
+    "delta": -1295751707.1975327
+   },
+   "results": [
+    {
+     "value": 1104248292.8024673,
+     "status": "constructed",
+     "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+     "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+     "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+     "construction": "PE UC-only static cost of 2CL removal, CY2026, calibrated take-up",
+     "computed_at": "2026-08-02T18:11:52.738422+00:00",
+     "annotations": [
+      "entitlements-basis: 1.85bn",
+      "external HMT costing includes legacy-CTC scope + OBR-certified take-up response (named scopes)",
+      "cost triangle: 1.10 calibrated / 1.85 entitlements / 2.4 HMT"
+     ]
+    }
+   ],
+   "diagnosis": null
+  },
+  {
+   "claim_id": "4a52f83ad92c18d95b36",
+   "source": "resolution_foundation",
+   "source_column": "Government estimate: reduction in children in poverty from two-child limit removal",
+   "name": "Happy new tax year 2026",
+   "window": "",
+   "publication_title": "Happy new tax year 2026",
+   "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/happy-new-tax-year-2026/",
+   "metric": "poverty_count_change",
+   "unit_concept": "children_under_18",
+   "value_kind": "count",
+   "period": 2029,
+   "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
+   "period_start": null,
+   "period_end": null,
+   "geography": "UK",
+   "program": null,
+   "conditions": {
+    "attribution": "Government estimate cited by RF",
+    "fy": "2029-30",
+    "geography": "UK",
+    "measure": "repeal two-child limit in UC (and legacy CTC) from April 2026; policyengine-uk: gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit (and tax credits analogue)",
+    "unit_population": "children"
+   },
+   "reform_framework": "policy_ref",
+   "reform_key": "5bb416c9316441b0",
+   "external_value": -450000.0,
+   "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
+   "latest": {
+    "value": -243108.06365954876,
+    "status": "concept_mismatch",
+    "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+    "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+    "construction": "2CL removal, PE 2026 single-year, actual partially-rolled-in law (born<2017 exempt), fixed baseline rel-AHC line, HBAI-dep proxy, calibrated take-up",
+    "computed_at": "2026-08-02T18:11:52.738422+00:00",
+    "annotations": [
+     "external is govt claim at FY2029-30 (mostly rolled-in) \u2014 period+roll-in mismatch, attached for the pentagon surface",
+     "entitlements-basis variant: -277,287",
+     "channel ledger: line 0 / definition +8k / take-up +34k / roll-in+lineage residual"
+    ],
+    "ratio": 0.5402401414656639,
+    "delta": 206891.93634045124
+   },
+   "results": [
+    {
+     "value": -243108.06365954876,
+     "status": "concept_mismatch",
+     "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+     "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+     "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+     "construction": "2CL removal, PE 2026 single-year, actual partially-rolled-in law (born<2017 exempt), fixed baseline rel-AHC line, HBAI-dep proxy, calibrated take-up",
+     "computed_at": "2026-08-02T18:11:52.738422+00:00",
+     "annotations": [
+      "external is govt claim at FY2029-30 (mostly rolled-in) \u2014 period+roll-in mismatch, attached for the pentagon surface",
+      "entitlements-basis variant: -277,287",
+      "channel ledger: line 0 / definition +8k / take-up +34k / roll-in+lineage residual"
+     ]
+    }
+   ],
+   "diagnosis": null
+  },
   {
    "claim_id": "3f377de7e5d1a0b461ae",
    "source": "ri_admin",
@@ -18059,6 +22010,66 @@
    ],
    "diagnosis": null
   },
+  {
+   "claim_id": "bf8c18237c04b891cd53",
+   "source": "ukmod",
+   "source_column": null,
+   "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030",
+   "window": "",
+   "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030",
+   "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf",
+   "metric": "poverty_count_change",
+   "unit_concept": "persons",
+   "value_kind": "count",
+   "period": 2026,
+   "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
+   "period_start": null,
+   "period_end": null,
+   "geography": "UK",
+   "program": null,
+   "conditions": {
+    "fy": "2026-27",
+    "geography": "UK",
+    "income_concept": "AHC",
+    "measure": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions",
+    "poverty_line_type": "fixed",
+    "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline",
+    "subgroup": "Children"
+   },
+   "reform_framework": "policy_ref",
+   "reform_key": "71933ac9cf45dd0a",
+   "external_value": -13193.0,
+   "calibration_relationship": "held_out",
+   "latest": {
+    "value": -243108.06365954876,
+    "status": "concept_mismatch",
+    "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+    "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+    "construction": "PE = 2CL-only removal; external = NET Autumn-Budget package (freezes offset 2CL) \u2014 attached for the pentagon surface with basis labels",
+    "computed_at": "2026-08-02T18:11:52.738422+00:00",
+    "annotations": [
+     "per-leg bases documented in results/uk/two_child_fixed_line_2026.json external_pentagon"
+    ],
+    "ratio": 18.427049470139373,
+    "delta": -229915.06365954876
+   },
+   "results": [
+    {
+     "value": -243108.06365954876,
+     "status": "concept_mismatch",
+     "engine_version": "2.89.2",
+     "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+     "release": "8c73-4aa4b14",
+     "construction": "PE = 2CL-only removal; external = NET Autumn-Budget package (freezes offset 2CL) \u2014 attached for the pentagon surface with basis labels",
+     "computed_at": "2026-08-02T18:11:52.738422+00:00",
+     "annotations": [
+      "per-leg bases documented in results/uk/two_child_fixed_line_2026.json external_pentagon"
+     ]
+    }
+   ],
+   "diagnosis": null
+  },
   {
    "claim_id": "93368a42000c01f07cc3",
    "source": "ut_admin",
diff --git a/data/scorecard.db b/data/scorecard.db
index cae9078..7050f4e 100644
Binary files a/data/scorecard.db and b/data/scorecard.db differ
diff --git a/scorecard_db/README.md b/scorecard_db/README.md
index 059fb98..57c052a 100644
--- a/scorecard_db/README.md
+++ b/scorecard_db/README.md
@@ -26,10 +26,21 @@ can check, one SQLite file, reform-keyed.
 
 ## Use
 
+Full rebuild, in order (idempotent; urban/platform/solo read the
+machine-local ~/populace-sotsn-takeup/comparison interchange, everything
+else reads vendored sources/):
+
 ```bash
 PYTHONPATH=. python -m scorecard_db.ingest_urban data/scorecard.db
 PYTHONPATH=. python -m scorecard_db.ingest_platform data/scorecard.db
-python -m pytest tests/test_scorecard_db.py
+PYTHONPATH=. python -m scorecard_db.ingest_solo data/scorecard.db
+PYTHONPATH=. python -m scorecard_db.ingest_diagnoses data/scorecard.db
+PYTHONPATH=. python -m scorecard_db.ingest_harvest data/scorecard.db
+PYTHONPATH=. python -m scorecard_db.ingest_reform_validation data/scorecard.db
+PYTHONPATH=. python -m scorecard_db.ingest_uk data/scorecard.db
+PYTHONPATH=. python -m scorecard_db.ingest_campaign data/scorecard.db
+PYTHONPATH=. python -m scorecard_db.ingest_campaign_uk data/scorecard.db
+python -m pytest tests/
 ```
 
 ```python
@@ -85,6 +96,66 @@ Schema decisions this population forced (COLLATION worklist):
   rounding-consistency assertions; see
   sources/harvest-2026-08-02/VALIDATION.md for the artifact validation.
 
+## 2026-08-02 UK population + baselines registry
+
+Fourth population: the seven-source UK fleet — **31,762 claims**
+(OBR 25,425 · DWP 1,952 · HMT 1,368 · HMRC 987 · UKMOD 1,392 · JRF 300
+· IFS 268 · Resolution Foundation 70) from gzipped staging vendored at
+sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/. Run with:
+
+```bash
+PYTHONPATH=. python -m scorecard_db.ingest_uk data/scorecard.db
+```
+
+Full accounting against the 33,943 staged rows: 31,762 ingested +
+**2,090 admin outturns routed to the Ledger staging file**
+(data/ledger/uk_admin_outturns.jsonl — HMRC outturn/provisional 1,855,
+OBR EFO outturn columns 133, DWP BECL outturns 102; deterministic
+pre-agreed fact ids for the populace/Ledger lane. Routing rule, Max
+2026-08-02: admin facts → Ledger, model claims → Scorecard; a forecast
+is a model speaking and stays) + 89 deliberate drops tallied in lane
+notes (88 JRF MIS budget cells, 1 RF price-index row) + 2 JRF
+rounded/unrounded republication twins merged.
+
+Decisions this population forced:
+
+- **period = FY start year everywhere** (pe-uk-data convention),
+  re-derived from the verbatim fy label — the staging mixed start-year
+  (HMRC/OBR) and FYE end-year (DWP) ints and had a '1999/00'→1900
+  defect; conditions["fy"] carries the normalized "2026-27" label.
+- **Baselines registry (issue #13)**: `baselines` table + baseline_key
+  on external_scores/pe_results/pe_exhibits; the comparisons view
+  exposes both sides' labels and pe_status_effective — a result
+  computed against a different baseline world can never render as plain
+  agreement. IFS's Green-Budget options ride the registered
+  ifs_2cl_fp_removal_rolled_out world; HMT/OBR costings score against
+  current law at announcement (JCT parity — the event is a condition,
+  not a baseline world).
+- **Descriptive register (issue #9)**: diagnosis class
+  methodological_difference added; pe_gap/external_issue now REQUIRE a
+  citable action_link (db.diagnose raises otherwise).
+- **calibration_relationship from verified consumption**: exact
+  pe-uk-data target lines (targets/sources/obr.py receipts + Table 4.9
+  welfare; BECL expenditure for the five exact-line benefits; DWP UC
+  admin, PC take-up seed) read 2026-08-02; SPI-family projections are
+  seed_source via the shared SPI 2023-24 base; poverty_count and
+  persistent_poverty_rate joined the permanent-holdout set.
+- **Reconstructed identity axes** the staging dropped: OBR 4.9
+  welfare-cap sections, 4.11 parent lines, per-head measure component
+  runs, the Mar-2026/Nov-2025 EFO vintage split, IFS recipient groups.
+
+Fifth population: the **2026-08-02 campaign compute batch**, in two
+sibling modules over sources/campaign-20260802/. ingest_campaign
+attaches the day-1 US families from the campaign's staged descriptor
+JSONL (us/); ingest_campaign_uk lands the UK side from the vendored raw
+runs (uk_runs/) — 65 results (uk_reckoner 23 · uk_free_joins 23 ·
+uk_obr_measures 10 · uk_uprating 6 · two_child_pentagon 3) + 11
+two-child-limit exhibits against the registered pre_ab2025 baseline +
+8 CPSP register diagnoses. Every result records the baseline it
+actually executed (#13); joins assert exactly-one-match. See both
+modules' docstrings for the join families and why the staged UK
+descriptor files are superseded rather than attached.
+
 First population: Urban SotSN — 30,004 claims (24,717 published values).
 `calibration_relationship` is assigned per (program, metric) from the
 certified build's documented target surface and seeds
diff --git a/scorecard_db/__init__.py b/scorecard_db/__init__.py
index ab2a47f..11d9483 100644
--- a/scorecard_db/__init__.py
+++ b/scorecard_db/__init__.py
@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@
 from .db import ScorecardDB
 from .models import (
     BASELINE,
+    CURRENT_LAW_DESCRIPTOR,
     STANDARD_CONDITIONS,
     CalibrationRelationship,
     ComparisonStatus,
@@ -11,10 +12,12 @@
     ReformRef,
     TimeBasis,
     UnitConcept,
+    baseline_key,
 )
 
 __all__ = [
     "BASELINE",
+    "CURRENT_LAW_DESCRIPTOR",
     "STANDARD_CONDITIONS",
     "CalibrationRelationship",
     "ComparisonStatus",
@@ -26,4 +29,5 @@
     "ScorecardDB",
     "TimeBasis",
     "UnitConcept",
+    "baseline_key",
 ]
diff --git a/scorecard_db/baselines.py b/scorecard_db/baselines.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..4d3fa92
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scorecard_db/baselines.py
@@ -0,0 +1,175 @@
+"""Baseline registry (issue #13): every baseline world, deliberately named.
+
+A score's meaning is its (reform, baseline) pair. ReformRef keeps carrying
+the baseline descriptor for claim-id hashing (unchanged); this module is
+the queryable projection — one registry row per distinct descriptor, with
+the source's own words defining the world. `register_baselines` seeds the
+table and fails loudly if any baseline_key referenced by the data is not
+described here: extending the registry is a deliberate act.
+
+Convention (mirrors JCT/HMT practice): a costing scored against the law in
+force at its own publication is the null baseline `current_law` — the
+announcement vintage is a condition (fiscal_event, data_vintage), not a
+distinct baseline world. Only genuinely non-current-law worlds (TCJA
+extension, JCT current policy, TPC current-law + Senate Title VII, CPSP
+counterfactual CTC regimes, PE's pre-AB2025 reinstated two-child limit)
+get their own entries.
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from .db import ScorecardDB
+from .models import CURRENT_LAW_DESCRIPTOR, baseline_key
+
+# descriptor, label, description, framework, provenance
+BASELINES: list[tuple[dict, str, str, str, str]] = [
+    (
+        CURRENT_LAW_DESCRIPTOR,
+        "current_law",
+        "Law in force at the source's scoring date (the null baseline; "
+        "announcement vintage rides in conditions, not here).",
+        "baseline",
+        "Default for every claim without an explicit baseline descriptor.",
+    ),
+    (
+        {"policy": "current_policy"},
+        "current_policy",
+        "JCT current-policy baseline: expiring provisions assumed "
+        "continued rather than sunsetting under present law.",
+        "policy_ref",
+        "JCX-29-25 (manager's amendment scored vs current policy; twin of "
+        "JCX-30/31 present-law scoring) — sources/harvest-2026-08-02/jct.",
+    ),
+    (
+        {"policy": "tcja_extension"},
+        "tcja_extension",
+        "TCJA individual provisions extended past their scheduled 2025 sunset.",
+        "policy_ref",
+        "PWBM tables scored against a TCJA-extension baseline "
+        "(sources/harvest-2026-08-02/pwbm NOTES: conditions."
+        "baseline_policy=tcja_extension rows).",
+    ),
+    (
+        {"policy": "current_law_pre_2025_tariffs"},
+        "current_law_pre_2025_tariffs",
+        "Current law excluding the 2025 tariff actions (Tax Foundation "
+        "Tariff Tracker scoring convention).",
+        "policy_ref",
+        "Tax Foundation Tariff Tracker, July-2026 vintage "
+        "(sources/harvest-2026-08-02/tax_foundation).",
+    ),
+    (
+        {"policy": "current_law_plus_senate_obbba_title_vii"},
+        "current_law_plus_senate_obbba_title_vii",
+        "Current law plus the Senate OBBBA Title VII draft — the baseline "
+        "under TPC's CTC options set.",
+        "policy_ref",
+        "TPC T25-0209/0213/0215 baseline_hint (sources/harvest-2026-08-02/"
+        "tpc); draft≈enacted for these provisions per the campaign "
+        "conventions note.",
+    ),
+    (
+        {"policy": "no_ctc"},
+        "no_ctc",
+        "Counterfactual world with the Child Tax Credit removed (CPSP "
+        "poverty counterfactual tables, 100% take-up, no behavior).",
+        "policy_ref",
+        "CPSP CTC counterfactual tables 2023/2024 (sources/harvest-2026-08-02/cpsp).",
+    ),
+    (
+        {"policy": "tcja_ctc"},
+        "tcja_ctc",
+        "TCJA-parameter CTC world (CPSP counterfactual scenario).",
+        "policy_ref",
+        "CPSP CTC counterfactual tables (sources/harvest-2026-08-02/cpsp).",
+    ),
+    (
+        {"policy": "tcja_ctc", "take_up": "full"},
+        "tcja_ctc_full_takeup",
+        "TCJA-parameter CTC world at explicit 100% take-up.",
+        "policy_ref",
+        "CPSP CTC counterfactual tables (sources/harvest-2026-08-02/cpsp).",
+    ),
+    (
+        {"policy": "bl_ctc_option", "option": "1. TCJA CTC"},
+        "bl_ctc_option_1_tcja_ctc",
+        "Budget Lab CTC options workbook baseline: option 1 (TCJA CTC) "
+        "under the current-law sunset path.",
+        "policy_ref",
+        "Budget Lab 16-scenario CTC options workbook "
+        "(sources/harvest-2026-08-02/budget_lab).",
+    ),
+    (
+        {"policy": "bl_ctc_option_permanent", "option": "1. TCJA Extension"},
+        "bl_ctc_option_permanent_1_tcja_extension",
+        "Budget Lab CTC options workbook baseline: option 1 under the "
+        "TCJA-permanence path.",
+        "policy_ref",
+        "Budget Lab 16-scenario CTC options workbook "
+        "(sources/harvest-2026-08-02/budget_lab).",
+    ),
+    (
+        {"policy": "pre_obbba_current_law"},
+        "pre_obbba_current_law",
+        "US current law before OBBBA's enactment — the baseline of CBO's "
+        "December-2024 revenue-option scores.",
+        "policy_ref",
+        "populace reform-validation registry: federal.cbo_rates_plus_1pt "
+        "is scored against pre-OBBBA current law "
+        "(scorecard_db/ingest_reform_validation.py; CBO Options for "
+        "Reducing the Deficit, Dec 2024).",
+    ),
+    (
+        {"policy": "ifs_2cl_fp_removal_rolled_out"},
+        "ifs_2cl_fp_removal_rolled_out",
+        "IFS Green-Budget-2025 options baseline: the current UK "
+        "tax-benefit system with the two-child limit and family-premium "
+        "removal fully rolled out (steady state).",
+        "policy_ref",
+        "IFS staged conditions verbatim: 'current tax-benefit system "
+        "with two-child limit and family premium removal fully rolled "
+        "out' (sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_ifs).",
+    ),
+    (
+        {"policy": "pre_ab2025"},
+        "pre_ab2025",
+        "UK current law with the Autumn Budget 2025 two-child-limit "
+        "abolition reversed (limit reinstated at 2 children; born-pre-2017 "
+        "exemptions active) — the reinstated counterfactual PE executes as "
+        "baseline so 'removal' is measured explicitly, not implied by "
+        "sign.",
+        "policyengine_uk",
+        "Campaign run results/uk/two_child_reinstate_2026.json "
+        "(gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count: "
+        "inf -> 2); issue #13 grounding artifact.",
+    ),
+]
+
+
+def register_baselines(db: ScorecardDB) -> int:
+    """Seed the registry, then fail loudly on any baseline_key the data
+    references that is not curated above."""
+    for descriptor, label, description, framework, provenance in BASELINES:
+        db.register_baseline(
+            baseline_key(descriptor),
+            label,
+            description=description,
+            framework=framework,
+            spec_json=None,
+            provenance=provenance,
+        )
+    missing = db.unregistered_baselines()
+    if missing:
+        described = []
+        for key in missing:
+            sample = db.conn.execute(
+                "SELECT reform_json FROM external_scores"
+                " WHERE baseline_key = ? LIMIT 1",
+                (key,),
+            ).fetchone()
+            described.append(f"{key} (e.g. {sample['reform_json']})" if sample else key)
+        raise ValueError(
+            "baseline_keys in data but not in the registry (add them to "
+            f"scorecard_db/baselines.py deliberately): {described}"
+        )
+    return len(BASELINES)
diff --git a/scorecard_db/db.py b/scorecard_db/db.py
index 3de8826..4ac1b22 100644
--- a/scorecard_db/db.py
+++ b/scorecard_db/db.py
@@ -1,10 +1,16 @@
 """SQLite storage for the Scorecard database.
 
-One file (`scorecard.db`), four tables:
+One file (`scorecard.db`), five tables:
 
 - external_scores — the claims (populace-targets shape; see models.py)
 - pe_results     — PolicyEngine computations, full history per claim
-- diagnoses      — adjudications of material divergences
+- baselines      — registry of baseline worlds (issue #13): every claim and
+                   every PE run carries a baseline_key FK; the comparisons
+                   view exposes both sides and refuses to render plain
+                   agreement across different baselines
+- diagnoses      — adjudications of material divergences (descriptive
+                   register, issue #9: pe_gap / external_issue require a
+                   citable known issue in action_link)
 - lanes          — live mission-control status per (source × area) lane
 
 `comparisons` is a VIEW joining each claim to its latest PE result. Common
@@ -19,7 +25,12 @@
 from pathlib import Path
 from typing import Iterable, Optional
 
-from .models import ExternalScore, PEResult
+from .models import (
+    GATED_DIAGNOSIS_CLASSES,
+    DiagnosisClass,
+    ExternalScore,
+    PEResult,
+)
 
 DDL = """
 CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS external_scores (
@@ -46,7 +57,8 @@
         ('consumed_as_target','seed_source','held_out')
     ),
     period_start INTEGER,
-    period_end INTEGER
+    period_end INTEGER,
+    baseline_key TEXT
 );
 CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_scores_source ON external_scores(source);
 CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_scores_geo ON external_scores(geography);
@@ -65,14 +77,25 @@
     pe_construction TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
     run_id TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
     computed_at TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
-    annotations TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT '[]'
+    annotations TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT '[]',
+    baseline_key TEXT
 );
 CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_results_claim ON pe_results(claim_id);
 
+CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS baselines (
+    baseline_key TEXT PRIMARY KEY,
+    label TEXT NOT NULL UNIQUE,
+    description TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
+    framework TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
+    spec_json TEXT,
+    provenance TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT ''
+);
+
 CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS diagnoses (
     claim_id TEXT PRIMARY KEY REFERENCES external_scores(claim_id),
     diagnosis_class TEXT NOT NULL CHECK (diagnosis_class IN (
-        'pe_gap','external_issue','concept_mismatch','vintage','undiagnosed'
+        'pe_gap','external_issue','concept_mismatch',
+        'methodological_difference','vintage','undiagnosed'
     )),
     rationale TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
     action_link TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT ''
@@ -97,7 +120,8 @@
     data_bundle TEXT NOT NULL,
     run_id TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
     computed_at TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
-    note TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT ''
+    note TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
+    baseline_key TEXT
 );
 CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_exhibits_kind ON pe_exhibits(exhibit);
 
@@ -111,7 +135,16 @@
     updated_at TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT ''
 );
 
-CREATE VIEW IF NOT EXISTS comparisons AS
+"""
+
+# Everything below is (re)created after _migrate so it may reference
+# columns added by migration (baseline_key on pre-#13 files); DROP+CREATE
+# keeps the view definition current on old files.
+VIEW_DDL = """
+CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_scores_baseline
+    ON external_scores(baseline_key);
+DROP VIEW IF EXISTS comparisons;
+CREATE VIEW comparisons AS
 SELECT
     s.*,
     r.computed_value AS pe_value,
@@ -120,6 +153,21 @@
     r.data_bundle,
     r.pe_construction,
     r.computed_at,
+    r.baseline_key AS pe_baseline_key,
+    bc.label AS claim_baseline_label,
+    bp.label AS pe_baseline_label,
+    -- Issue #13 guard: a result computed against a different baseline
+    -- world than the claim's can never render as plain agreement — it is
+    -- at best a documented construction. (A registry-equivalence table
+    -- can relax specific pairs later; none exist yet.)
+    CASE
+        WHEN r.status = 'comparable'
+             AND r.baseline_key IS NOT NULL
+             AND s.baseline_key IS NOT NULL
+             AND r.baseline_key != s.baseline_key
+        THEN 'constructed'
+        ELSE r.status
+    END AS pe_status_effective,
     r.computed_value - s.value AS delta,
     CASE WHEN s.value != 0 THEN r.computed_value / s.value END AS ratio,
     d.diagnosis_class,
@@ -131,7 +179,9 @@
     WHERE claim_id = s.claim_id
     ORDER BY computed_at DESC, id DESC LIMIT 1
 )
-LEFT JOIN diagnoses d ON d.claim_id = s.claim_id;
+LEFT JOIN diagnoses d ON d.claim_id = s.claim_id
+LEFT JOIN baselines bc ON bc.baseline_key = s.baseline_key
+LEFT JOIN baselines bp ON bp.baseline_key = r.baseline_key;
 """
 
 
@@ -141,20 +191,22 @@
     " source_column, publication, reform_key, reform_json,"
     " metric, unit_concept, period, time_basis, conditions,"
     " geography, program, value, value_kind, status,"
-    " calibration_relationship, period_start, period_end)"
-    " VALUES (?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?)"
+    " calibration_relationship, period_start, period_end, baseline_key)"
+    " VALUES (?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?)"
 )
 RESULTS_SQL = (
     "INSERT INTO pe_results (claim_id, computed_value, status,"
     " engine_version, data_bundle, pe_construction, run_id,"
-    " computed_at, annotations) VALUES (?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?)"
+    " computed_at, annotations, baseline_key)"
+    " VALUES (?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?)"
 )
 EXHIBITS_SQL = (
     "INSERT INTO pe_exhibits (exhibit, reform_key, reform_json,"
     " metric, unit_concept, period, time_basis, conditions,"
     " geography, program, value, baseline_value, delta,"
-    " engine_version, data_bundle, run_id, computed_at, note)"
-    " VALUES (?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?)"
+    " engine_version, data_bundle, run_id, computed_at, note,"
+    " baseline_key)"
+    " VALUES (?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?)"
 )
 LANE_SQL = (
     "INSERT INTO lanes (lane, stage, detail, updated_at)"
@@ -171,24 +223,62 @@ def __init__(self, path: str | Path):
         self.conn.row_factory = sqlite3.Row
         self.conn.executescript(DDL)
         self._migrate()
+        self.conn.executescript(VIEW_DDL)
 
     def _migrate(self):
         """Bring a pre-existing file up to the current schema.
 
         CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS leaves old files untouched, so columns
-        added later (period_start/period_end, 2026-08-02) are ALTERed in.
-        The comparisons view stores its SELECT as text and expands s.* at
-        query time, so it needs no rebuild.
+        added later (period_start/period_end 2026-08-02, baseline_key
+        2026-08-02 #13) are ALTERed in, and the diagnoses CHECK is
+        rebuilt when it predates methodological_difference (issue #9).
+        The comparisons view is dropped and recreated after migration so
+        its definition always matches the code.
         """
-        cols = {
-            r["name"] for r in self.conn.execute("PRAGMA table_info(external_scores)")
-        }
+
+        def cols(table):
+            return {r["name"] for r in self.conn.execute(f"PRAGMA table_info({table})")}
+
         with self.conn:
-            for col in ("period_start", "period_end"):
-                if col not in cols:
+            score_cols = cols("external_scores")
+            for col, typ in (
+                ("period_start", "INTEGER"),
+                ("period_end", "INTEGER"),
+                ("baseline_key", "TEXT"),
+            ):
+                if col not in score_cols:
                     self.conn.execute(
-                        f"ALTER TABLE external_scores ADD COLUMN {col} INTEGER"
+                        f"ALTER TABLE external_scores ADD COLUMN {col} {typ}"
                     )
+            for table in ("pe_results", "pe_exhibits"):
+                if "baseline_key" not in cols(table):
+                    self.conn.execute(
+                        f"ALTER TABLE {table} ADD COLUMN baseline_key TEXT"
+                    )
+            diag_sql = self.conn.execute(
+                "SELECT sql FROM sqlite_master WHERE type='table' AND name='diagnoses'"
+            ).fetchone()
+            if diag_sql and "methodological_difference" not in diag_sql["sql"]:
+                self.conn.executescript(
+                    """
+                    ALTER TABLE diagnoses RENAME TO diagnoses_old;
+                    CREATE TABLE diagnoses (
+                        claim_id TEXT PRIMARY KEY
+                            REFERENCES external_scores(claim_id),
+                        diagnosis_class TEXT NOT NULL CHECK (
+                            diagnosis_class IN (
+                                'pe_gap','external_issue','concept_mismatch',
+                                'methodological_difference','vintage',
+                                'undiagnosed'
+                            )
+                        ),
+                        rationale TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
+                        action_link TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT ''
+                    );
+                    INSERT INTO diagnoses SELECT * FROM diagnoses_old;
+                    DROP TABLE diagnoses_old;
+                    """
+                )
 
     def close(self):
         self.conn.close()
@@ -222,6 +312,7 @@ def score_row(s: ExternalScore) -> tuple:
             s.calibration_relationship.value,
             s.period_start,
             s.period_end,
+            s.reform.baseline_key(),
         )
 
     @staticmethod
@@ -236,6 +327,7 @@ def result_row(r: PEResult) -> tuple:
             r.run_id,
             r.computed_at,
             json.dumps(r.annotations),
+            r.baseline_key,
         )
 
     def upsert_scores(self, scores: Iterable[ExternalScore]) -> int:
@@ -271,6 +363,7 @@ def exhibit_row(r: dict) -> tuple:
             r.get("run_id", ""),
             r.get("computed_at", ""),
             r.get("note", ""),
+            r.get("baseline_key"),
         )
 
     def add_exhibits(self, rows: Iterable[dict]) -> int:
@@ -290,6 +383,41 @@ def set_lane(self, lane: str, stage: str, detail: str = "", at: str = ""):
         with self.conn:
             self.conn.execute(LANE_SQL, (lane, stage, detail, at))
 
+    def register_baseline(
+        self,
+        baseline_key: str,
+        label: str,
+        description: str = "",
+        framework: str = "",
+        spec_json: Optional[str] = None,
+        provenance: str = "",
+    ):
+        with self.conn:
+            self.conn.execute(
+                "INSERT INTO baselines VALUES (?,?,?,?,?,?)"
+                " ON CONFLICT(baseline_key) DO UPDATE SET"
+                " label=excluded.label, description=excluded.description,"
+                " framework=excluded.framework, spec_json=excluded.spec_json,"
+                " provenance=excluded.provenance",
+                (baseline_key, label, description, framework, spec_json, provenance),
+            )
+
+    def unregistered_baselines(self) -> list[str]:
+        """baseline_keys referenced by claims or results but missing from
+        the registry — runners fail loudly on these so every baseline
+        world is deliberately described (issue #13)."""
+        return [
+            r["baseline_key"]
+            for r in self.conn.execute(
+                "SELECT DISTINCT baseline_key FROM ("
+                "  SELECT baseline_key FROM external_scores"
+                "  UNION SELECT baseline_key FROM pe_results"
+                "  UNION SELECT baseline_key FROM pe_exhibits)"
+                " WHERE baseline_key IS NOT NULL AND baseline_key NOT IN"
+                "  (SELECT baseline_key FROM baselines)"
+            )
+        ]
+
     def diagnose(
         self,
         claim_id: str,
@@ -297,6 +425,15 @@ def diagnose(
         rationale: str = "",
         action_link: str = "",
     ):
+        # Descriptive register (issue #9): normative classes are gated on
+        # a citable known issue; divergence alone never qualifies.
+        if DiagnosisClass(diagnosis_class) in GATED_DIAGNOSIS_CLASSES and (
+            not action_link
+        ):
+            raise ValueError(
+                f"{diagnosis_class} requires a citable known issue in "
+                "action_link (descriptive register, issue #9)"
+            )
         with self.conn:
             self.conn.execute(
                 "INSERT INTO diagnoses VALUES (?,?,?,?) ON CONFLICT(claim_id)"
diff --git a/scorecard_db/ingest_campaign.py b/scorecard_db/ingest_campaign.py
index 5552df3..0f74bc7 100644
--- a/scorecard_db/ingest_campaign.py
+++ b/scorecard_db/ingest_campaign.py
@@ -9,11 +9,12 @@
 family-vocabulary descriptor (translated below) or, for claims already in
 the DB (the Urban subgroup joins), the claim_id directly.
 
-US families attach here. The UK families (free_joins, hmrc_reckoner_t2,
-obr_measures, uprating_april2026, two_child) are vendored alongside but
-NOT ingested: their claims live in the UK harvest, which has no DB ingest
-yet — they attach when it lands, and this module fails loudly if pointed
-at them early.
+US families attach here. The UK side lands via its sibling,
+scorecard_db/ingest_campaign_uk.py — it supersedes the staged UK
+descriptor files (uk/*.jsonl) with fuller recomputed coverage from the
+vendored raw runs (uk_runs/), and takes the two-child pentagon
+attachments from them; this module still fails loudly if pointed at the
+UK directory directly.
 
 Match contract: descriptors were verified by the campaign against the
 harvest STAGING files; the DB's per-source adapters normalized vocabulary
@@ -46,11 +47,16 @@
 from pathlib import Path
 
 from .db import EXHIBITS_SQL, RESULTS_SQL, ScorecardDB
-from .models import ComparisonStatus, PEResult
+from .models import BASELINE, ComparisonStatus, PEResult
 
 REPO = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent
 STAGED_US = REPO / "sources" / "campaign-20260802" / "us"
 
+# Every day-1 run executed against the certified current-law world
+# (CPSP's take-up forcing and the fullpart subgroup slices are
+# input-override constructions ON that world) — recorded per issue #13.
+_CURRENT_LAW_KEY = BASELINE.baseline_key()
+
 # CPSP's CTC-brief scenario worlds live on the claim's policy_ref reform
 # (ingest_cpsp), not in conditions — descriptor policy_scenario -> policy.
 _CPSP_WORLDS = {
@@ -201,6 +207,7 @@ def ingest(db_path: Path, staged_dir: Path | None = None) -> dict:
                         "run_id": row["run_id"],
                         "computed_at": row["computed_at"],
                         "note": note,
+                        "baseline_key": _CURRENT_LAW_KEY,
                     }
                 )
                 continue
@@ -221,6 +228,7 @@ def ingest(db_path: Path, staged_dir: Path | None = None) -> dict:
                     run_id=row["run_id"],
                     computed_at=row["computed_at"],
                     annotations=row.get("annotations", []),
+                    baseline_key=_CURRENT_LAW_KEY,
                 )
             )
 
diff --git a/scorecard_db/ingest_campaign_uk.py b/scorecard_db/ingest_campaign_uk.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..f4b511b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scorecard_db/ingest_campaign_uk.py
@@ -0,0 +1,852 @@
+"""Ingest the campaign's UK compute batch as PE results + exhibits.
+
+The sibling of scorecard_db/ingest_campaign.py (which attaches the
+campaign's day-1 US families from sources/campaign-20260802/us/ and is
+canonical there). This module lands the UK side, which that module
+deliberately deferred until the UK harvest ingest existed. It reads the
+vendored raw run files (sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/ — full bundle
+provenance; .npz world arrays and logs stay outside) and RECOMPUTES each
+delta from run + baseline aggregates, cross-checking against the
+campaign's own collations before landing; joins resolve claims by DB
+query with exactly-one-match asserted.
+
+The campaign's staged UK descriptor files (sources/campaign-20260802/
+uk/*.jsonl) are deliberately superseded rather than attached: they cover
+a strict subset (14 tranche-2 reckoner rows vs all 23 runs here, 16
+computed free-joins vs 25 incl. the scoping skips, uprating as
+unattached exhibits vs real RF-claim joins here) and their reckoner
+descriptors are under-determined against the normalized DB vocabulary
+(no measure key — several reckoner lines share a section × year). The
+one thing taken from that staging is its two-child PENTAGON attachments
+(uk/two_child.jsonl): three cross-model rows joining PE's removal run to
+the RF-cited government claims and UKMOD's net-package leg —
+descriptive statuses verbatim, per-leg concept deltas in annotations.
+
+Join families:
+
+1. **UK ready reckoner** (23 runs ↔ hmrc RR claims): computed_value is
+   the |head-delta| magnitude (HMRC publishes per-direction magnitudes;
+   the signed PE delta and heads ride annotations), cross-checked
+   against t2_collation.csv / uk_scorecard_first.csv.
+2. **UK free joins** (free_joins.csv ↔ OBR EFO revenue levels and DWP
+   BECL forecast lines by line/value match); skipped rows land as
+   not_computed with the scoping reason verbatim.
+3. **OBR measure reversals** (obr_measures_collation.csv ↔ measures-
+   database claims; the external anchor is the measure's per-head
+   component SUM — the result anchors to the dominant component with
+   the aggregation named).
+4. **April-2026 uprating checks** (uprating_check_april2026.json ↔ RF
+   benefit_uprating claims — the one `comparable` family: pure
+   parameter-tree checks, no data artifact involved).
+5. **Two-child pentagon attachments** (their staged rows, translated).
+
+Also here: the descriptive-register diagnoses for the campaign's CPSP
+CTC level rows (methodological_difference, populace#593 EHS sub-channel
+in the rationale) — the results themselves attach via ingest_campaign.
+
+PE-only counterfactuals — the two-child-limit removal family (floating/
+fixed line × calibrated/entitlements take-up, plus the absolute-line
+continuity pair) — land in pe_exhibits with reform
+two_child_limit_removal against the registered pre_ab2025 baseline
+(direction explicit, issue #13 point 5).
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import csv
+import json
+from pathlib import Path
+
+from .baselines import register_baselines
+from .db import ScorecardDB
+from .harvest import REPO
+from .models import (
+    BASELINE,
+    ComparisonStatus,
+    PEResult,
+    baseline_key,
+)
+from .uk import slugify
+
+CAMPAIGN = REPO / "sources" / "campaign-20260802"
+COMPUTED_AT = "2026-08-02T20:00:00"
+CURRENT_LAW_KEY = BASELINE.baseline_key()
+PRE_AB2025_KEY = baseline_key({"policy": "pre_ab2025"})
+
+
+def _load(rel: str):
+    return json.loads((CAMPAIGN / rel).read_text())
+
+
+def _rows(rel: str) -> list[dict]:
+    with (CAMPAIGN / rel).open() as f:
+        return list(csv.DictReader(f))
+
+
+def _one(db: ScorecardDB, what: str, sql: str, args: tuple) -> str:
+    hits = [r["claim_id"] for r in db.conn.execute(sql, args)]
+    if len(hits) != 1:
+        raise ValueError(f"campaign: {what}: {len(hits)} claims matched")
+    return hits[0]
+
+
+def _bundle_meta(bundle: dict) -> tuple[str, str]:
+    return bundle["model_version"], bundle["certified_data_build_id"]
+
+
+# -- 1. UK ready reckoner ------------------------------------------------
+# run key -> (staged HMRC hint — verbatim, verified against the 74 staged
+# reckoner lines — and the PE aggregate heads whose delta scores it).
+RECKONER = {
+    "additional_rate_1p": ("Increase additional rate by 1p (yield)", ("income_tax",)),
+    "basic_rate_1p": ("Change basic rate by 1p", ("income_tax",)),
+    "brl_10pct": ("Increase basic rate limit by 10% (cost)", ("income_tax",)),
+    "brl_1pct": ("Change basic rate limit by 1%", ("income_tax",)),
+    "cb_additional_1pw": (
+        "Increase subsequent child rate by £1 per week (cost)",
+        ("child_benefit",),
+    ),
+    "cb_first_1pw": (
+        "Increase first child rate by £1 per week (cost)",
+        ("child_benefit",),
+    ),
+    "class4_1pp": (
+        "Change Class 4 main rate by 1 percentage point",
+        ("national_insurance",),
+    ),
+    "dividend_allowance_100": ("Change dividend allowance by £100", ("income_tax",)),
+    "employee_additional_1pp": (
+        "Change Class 1 employee additional rate by 1 percentage point",
+        ("national_insurance",),
+    ),
+    "employee_ni_1pp": (
+        "Change Class 1 employee main rate by 1 percentage point",
+        ("national_insurance",),
+    ),
+    "employer_ni_1pp": (
+        "Change Class 1 employer rate by 1 percentage point",
+        ("ni_employer",),
+    ),
+    "higher_rate_1p": ("Change higher rate by 1p", ("income_tax",)),
+    "ni_lpl_104": (
+        "Change lower profits limit by £104 per year",
+        ("national_insurance",),
+    ),
+    "ni_pt_2pw": (
+        "Change employee entry threshold by £2 per week",
+        ("national_insurance",),
+    ),
+    "ni_st_2pw": ("Change employer threshold by £2 per week", ("ni_employer",)),
+    "ni_uel_10pw": (
+        "Change upper earnings limit by £10 per week",
+        ("national_insurance",),
+    ),
+    "ni_upl_520": (
+        "Change upper profits limit by £520 per year",
+        ("national_insurance",),
+    ),
+    "pa_100": ("Change personal allowance by £100", ("income_tax",)),
+    "pa_10pct": ("Change personal allowance by 10%", ("income_tax",)),
+    "pa_1pct": ("Change personal allowance by 1%", ("income_tax",)),
+    "psa_100_50": (
+        "Change Savings allowance by £100 for BR and £50 for HR taxpayers",
+        ("income_tax",),
+    ),
+    "srl_100": (
+        "Change starting rate limit for savings income by £100",
+        ("income_tax",),
+    ),
+    "vat_1pp": ("Change standard rate by 1 percentage point", ("vat",)),
+}
+_RECKONER_CONVENTIONS = (
+    "PE CY2026 static accrual vs HMRC projected FY2026-27 direct effects "
+    "(first-year cash vs fuller-year; TIE/behavioural response in the "
+    "HMRC reckoner per their methodology notes); magnitude comparison — "
+    "HMRC publishes per-direction magnitudes, signed PE delta in "
+    "annotations"
+)
+
+
+def reckoner_results(db: ScorecardDB) -> tuple[list[PEResult], list[str]]:
+    base = _load("uk_runs/baseline_2026.json")["aggregates_gbp"]
+    t2 = {r["key"]: r for r in _rows("uk_runs/t2_collation.csv")}
+    t1 = {r["reform"]: r for r in _rows("uk_runs/uk_scorecard_first.csv")}
+    results, skipped = [], []
+    for key, (hint, heads) in RECKONER.items():
+        run = _load(f"uk_runs/{key}_2026.json")
+        delta = sum(run["aggregates_gbp"][h] - base[h] for h in heads)
+        # Cross-check against the campaign's own collation of this run.
+        if key in t2:
+            recorded = float(t2[key]["pe_delta_gbp"])
+            if abs(delta - recorded) > 1e-3 * max(1.0, abs(recorded)):
+                raise ValueError(f"campaign: {key} delta {delta} != t2 {recorded}")
+        elif key in t1:
+            recorded = abs(float(t1[key]["pe_gbp_m"])) * 1e6
+            if abs(abs(delta) - recorded) > 5e5:
+                raise ValueError(
+                    f"campaign: {key} |delta| {abs(delta)} != tranche-1 {recorded}"
+                )
+        else:
+            raise ValueError(f"campaign: {key} missing from collations")
+
+        section_filter = (
+            " AND json_extract(conditions,'$.tax_section')='VAT'"
+            if key == "vat_1pp"
+            else ""
+        )
+        hits = [
+            r["claim_id"]
+            for r in db.conn.execute(
+                "SELECT claim_id FROM external_scores WHERE source='hmrc'"
+                " AND source_model='hmrc' AND period=2026"
+                " AND json_extract(conditions,'$.measure')=?" + section_filter,
+                (hint,),
+            )
+        ]
+        if len(hits) > 1:
+            raise ValueError(f"campaign: {key}: {len(hits)} RR claims")
+        if not hits:
+            skipped.append(
+                f"{key}: no FY2026-27 claim for {hint!r} (reckoner line "
+                "publishes later years only)"
+            )
+            continue
+        engine, data = _bundle_meta(run["bundle"])
+        results.append(
+            PEResult(
+                claim_id=hits[0],
+                computed_value=abs(delta),
+                status=ComparisonStatus.CONSTRUCTED,
+                engine_version=engine,
+                data_bundle=data,
+                pe_construction=(
+                    f"{run['pe_construction']}; heads={'+'.join(heads)}; "
+                    f"reform={run['reform_json']}"
+                ),
+                run_id="uk-reckoner-2026",
+                computed_at=COMPUTED_AT,
+                annotations=[
+                    f"signed PE delta {delta:.0f} GBP",
+                    _RECKONER_CONVENTIONS,
+                ],
+                baseline_key=CURRENT_LAW_KEY,
+            )
+        )
+    return results, skipped
+
+
+# -- 2. UK free joins ----------------------------------------------------
+def _match_free_join_claims(db, source, label, period, value):
+    """Resolve a free-join row to claim ids plus any vintage caveat.
+
+    The campaign runner selected staged rows by the staged period ints,
+    which for DWP BECL were END-year keyed — so its "2026" DWP values
+    are the FY2025-26 cells. The published value is the strong key:
+    match on it, and when the claim's (re-derived, start-year) period
+    disagrees with the CSV's, say so on the result rather than
+    misattach or hide it."""
+    if source == "uk_obr":
+        sql = (
+            "SELECT claim_id, period, value FROM external_scores"
+            " WHERE source='obr' AND metric='revenue_level'"
+            " AND json_extract(conditions,'$.line_item')=?"
+        )
+    elif source == "uk_dwp":
+        sql = (
+            "SELECT claim_id, period, value FROM external_scores"
+            " WHERE source='dwp' AND source_model='dwp_becl'"
+            " AND metric='benefit_cost'"
+            " AND json_extract(conditions,'$.program')=?"
+        )
+    else:
+        raise ValueError(f"campaign: free-join source {source!r}")
+    rows = [
+        r
+        for r in db.conn.execute(sql, (label,))
+        if abs(r["value"] - value) <= 1e-6 * max(1.0, abs(value))
+    ]
+    caveats = [
+        f"claim describes FY starting {r['period']}, not the runner's "
+        f"nominal {period} — the campaign selected DWP rows by the "
+        "staged end-year ints (PE CY2026 vs this FY, named)"
+        for r in rows
+        if r["period"] != period
+    ]
+    return [r["claim_id"] for r in rows], (caveats[0] if caveats else None)
+
+
+def free_join_results(db: ScorecardDB) -> list[PEResult]:
+    agg = _load("uk_runs/aggregates_2026.json")
+    bundle = agg.get("bundle") or _load("uk_runs/baseline_2026.json")["bundle"]
+    engine, data = _bundle_meta(bundle)
+    results = []
+    attached: set[str] = set()
+    for row in _rows("uk_runs/free_joins.csv"):
+        period = int(row["period"])
+        value = float(row["external_value"])
+        claims, vintage_caveat = _match_free_join_claims(
+            db, row["source"], row["label"], period, value
+        )
+        computed = row["status"] == "computed"
+        if computed and len(claims) != 1:
+            raise ValueError(
+                f"campaign: free-join {row['label']!r}: {len(claims)} claims"
+            )
+        if not claims:
+            raise ValueError(f"campaign: free-join {row['label']!r}: no claim")
+        # The CSV lists some skipped heads once per source table; a value
+        # identical across tables (Self assessment) would otherwise attach
+        # the same reason to the same claim twice.
+        claims = [c for c in claims if c not in attached]
+        attached.update(claims)
+        for cid in claims:
+            annotations = [
+                a
+                for a in (row["conventions"], row["status"], vintage_caveat)
+                if a and a != "computed"
+            ]
+            results.append(
+                PEResult(
+                    claim_id=cid,
+                    computed_value=(float(row["pe_value"]) if computed else None),
+                    status=(
+                        ComparisonStatus.CONSTRUCTED
+                        if computed
+                        else ComparisonStatus.NOT_COMPUTED
+                    ),
+                    engine_version=engine,
+                    data_bundle=data,
+                    pe_construction=row["pe_construction"],
+                    run_id="uk-free-joins-2026",
+                    computed_at=COMPUTED_AT,
+                    annotations=annotations,
+                    baseline_key=CURRENT_LAW_KEY,
+                )
+            )
+    return results
+
+
+# -- 3. OBR measure reversals --------------------------------------------
+# key -> the hint substring the campaign runner matched (its external
+# anchor is the SUM of the measure's per-head component rows at the
+# period — OBR decomposes each measure across tax heads, and the 3.17
+# re-estimate rows join the same titles).
+_MEASURE_SUBSTRINGS = {
+    "hicbc_sb2024": (
+        "High Income Child Benefit Charge: increase income threshold to £60,000"
+    ),
+    "ee_ni_p2": "2 percentage point cut to the main rate",
+    "ee_ni_p4": "2p cut to the main rate of Class 1 employ",
+    "class4_p3": "1p cut to the main rate of Class 4",
+    "class2_reinstate": "abolish Class 2 self-employed NICs",
+    "employer_ab2024": (
+        "Employer National Insurance contributions: Increase rate by 1.2 ppts"
+    ),
+    "art_as2022": "reduce additional rate threshold from £150,000",
+    "div_ab2021": "Increase rates of dividend tax by 1.25%",
+    "cgt_ab2024": "Increase the main rates of CGT to 18% and 24%",
+    "pt_lpl_ss2022": ("increase annual primary threshold and lower profits limit"),
+}
+
+
+def obr_measure_results(db: ScorecardDB) -> list[PEResult]:
+    results = []
+    for row in _rows("uk_runs/obr_measures_collation.csv"):
+        if row["status"] != "computed":
+            raise ValueError(f"campaign: obr measure {row['key']}: {row['status']!r}")
+        run = _load(f"uk_runs/obr_measures/{row['key']}_2026.json")
+        total = float(row["obr_value_gbp"])
+        period = int(row["obr_period"])
+        sub = _MEASURE_SUBSTRINGS[row["key"]].lower()
+        components = list(
+            db.conn.execute(
+                "SELECT claim_id, value FROM external_scores"
+                " WHERE source='obr' AND metric='revenue_change'"
+                " AND period=? AND instr(lower(json_extract(conditions,"
+                "'$.measure')), ?) > 0",
+                (period, sub),
+            )
+        )
+        if not components:
+            raise ValueError(f"campaign: obr measure {row['key']}: no component claims")
+        got = sum(r["value"] for r in components)
+        if abs(got - total) > 1e-3 * max(1.0, abs(total)):
+            raise ValueError(
+                f"campaign: obr measure {row['key']}: component sum "
+                f"{got} != collated anchor {total}"
+            )
+        # Anchor the result to the dominant component row; the external
+        # anchor is the component SUM, named in annotations (a
+        # per-component ratio would be meaningless).
+        anchor = max(components, key=lambda r: abs(r["value"]))
+        engine, data = _bundle_meta(run["bundle"])
+        results.append(
+            PEResult(
+                claim_id=anchor["claim_id"],
+                computed_value=abs(float(row["pe_measure_effect_gbp"])),
+                status=ComparisonStatus.CONSTRUCTED,
+                engine_version=engine,
+                data_bundle=data,
+                pe_construction=(
+                    f"reversal of enacted measure on certified 2026 world: "
+                    f"{run['pe_construction']}; reform={run['reform_json']}"
+                ),
+                run_id="uk-obr-measure-reversals-2026",
+                computed_at=COMPUTED_AT,
+                annotations=[
+                    f"signed PE effect "
+                    f"{float(row['pe_measure_effect_gbp']):.0f} GBP "
+                    "(measure direction, magnitude compared)",
+                    f"external anchor = sum of the measure's "
+                    f"{len(components)} component rows at FY{period} "
+                    f"({total:.0f} GBP); this result anchors to the "
+                    "largest component — compare against the annotated "
+                    "total, not this row's value",
+                    row["conventions"],
+                    f"confidence: {row['confidence']}",
+                ],
+                baseline_key=CURRENT_LAW_KEY,
+            )
+        )
+    return results
+
+
+# -- 4. RF April-2026 uprating parameter checks --------------------------
+# uprating_check key -> (RF conditions.program value, tree_changes key or
+# None when the check itself found no comparable single parameter, and a
+# construction note).
+UPRATING_MAP = {
+    "inflation_linked_benefits": (
+        "inflation-linked benefits",
+        "uc_child_element",
+        "checked via the UC child element, a CPI-linked parameter",
+    ),
+    "state_pension_triple_lock_earnings": (
+        "State Pension (triple lock: earnings growth)",
+        "state_pension_new",
+        "checked via the new State Pension weekly amount",
+    ),
+    "uc_standard_allowance": (
+        "UC standard allowance",
+        "uc_standard_single_25plus",
+        "checked via the single-25+ standard allowance (couples uprate "
+        "identically in the tree probe)",
+    ),
+    "uc_standard_allowance_u25": (
+        "UC standard allowance, under-25s",
+        "uc_standard_single_u25",
+        "checked via the single-under-25 standard allowance",
+    ),
+    "uc_health_element_existing": (
+        "UC health element, existing recipients",
+        None,
+        "not comparable to a single tree parameter: the probe's LCWRA "
+        "amount change (−48.7%) is the AB2025 new-claimant halving, not "
+        "the existing-recipient uprating RF states — the new/existing "
+        "split needs its encoding mapped first (check note verbatim)",
+    ),
+    "lha_frozen": (
+        "Local Housing Allowance (frozen)",
+        None,
+        "LHA rates are data-driven per BRMA in policyengine-uk; freeze "
+        "verification needs the LHA parameter/dataset mechanism (check "
+        "note verbatim)",
+    ),
+}
+
+
+def uprating_results(db: ScorecardDB) -> tuple[list[PEResult], list[str]]:
+    check = _load("uk_runs/uprating_check_april2026.json")
+    tree = check["tree_changes"]
+    results, skipped = [], []
+    for key, staged in check["rf_staged_claims"].items():
+        program, tree_key, note = UPRATING_MAP[key]
+        cid = _one(
+            db,
+            f"uprating {key}",
+            "SELECT claim_id FROM external_scores"
+            " WHERE source='resolution_foundation'"
+            " AND metric='benefit_uprating' AND period=2026"
+            " AND json_extract(conditions,'$.program')=?"
+            " AND json_extract(conditions,'$.component') IS NULL",
+            (program,),
+        )
+        entry = tree.get(tree_key) if tree_key else None
+        if entry is None:
+            skipped.append(f"{key}: {note} (RF staged {staged})")
+            results.append(
+                PEResult(
+                    claim_id=cid,
+                    computed_value=None,
+                    status=ComparisonStatus.NOT_COMPUTED,
+                    engine_version=check["tree_package"],
+                    data_bundle="parameter-tree-only",
+                    pe_construction="",
+                    run_id="uk-uprating-check-2026",
+                    computed_at=COMPUTED_AT,
+                    annotations=[note, f"RF staged {staged}"],
+                    baseline_key=CURRENT_LAW_KEY,
+                )
+            )
+            continue
+        results.append(
+            PEResult(
+                claim_id=cid,
+                computed_value=entry["pct"],
+                status=ComparisonStatus.COMPARABLE,
+                engine_version=check["tree_package"],
+                data_bundle="parameter-tree-only",
+                pe_construction=(
+                    f"{entry['path']}: {entry['before']} -> "
+                    f"{entry['after']} across "
+                    f"{check['windows']['before']}→"
+                    f"{check['windows']['after']}"
+                ),
+                run_id="uk-uprating-check-2026",
+                computed_at=COMPUTED_AT,
+                annotations=[
+                    "pure parameter check (no data artifact); April-2026 "
+                    "uprating in the installed policyengine-uk tree vs "
+                    "RF's published parameter set",
+                    note,
+                ],
+                baseline_key=CURRENT_LAW_KEY,
+            )
+        )
+    return results, skipped
+
+
+# -- CPSP descriptive-register diagnoses -----------------------------------
+# The campaign's CPSP CTC level results attach via ingest_campaign (US
+# families); the register adjudication for those LEVEL rows lands here:
+# methodological_difference, strictly descriptive (issue #9), with the
+# populace#593 EHS sub-channel named in the rationale.
+_CPSP_SCENARIO_REFORM = {
+    "TCJA CTC": '%"tcja_ctc"%',
+    "No CTC": '%"no_ctc"%',
+    "OBBBA CTC": '%"obbba_ctc"%',
+    "AFA CTC": '%"afa_ctc"%',
+}
+_CPSP_LEVEL_RATIONALE = (
+    "Level comparison vs an ASEC-anchored series: Populace CALCULATES "
+    "benefits and recalibrates where the ASEC carries reported "
+    "attributes, and treats thresholds differently (descriptive "
+    "decomposition in sources/campaign-20260802/SPM_NOTES.md). "
+    "A named sub-channel: Early Head Start at engine-default 100% "
+    "take-up flows inside household_net_income "
+    "(populace#593). Change metrics between CTC worlds are the "
+    "same-assumptions surface and are directionally consistent."
+)
+
+
+def cpsp_diagnoses(db: ScorecardDB) -> list[tuple]:
+    diagnoses = []
+    for scenario, reform_like in _CPSP_SCENARIO_REFORM.items():
+        for subgroup in ("children_under_18", "children_under_6"):
+            cid = _one(
+                db,
+                f"cpsp {scenario} {subgroup}",
+                "SELECT claim_id FROM external_scores WHERE source='cpsp'"
+                " AND metric='poverty_rate' AND period=2024"
+                " AND json_extract(conditions,'$.subgroup')=?"
+                " AND reform_json LIKE ?",
+                (subgroup, reform_like),
+            )
+            diagnoses.append(
+                (
+                    cid,
+                    "methodological_difference",
+                    _CPSP_LEVEL_RATIONALE,
+                    "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/populace/issues/593",
+                )
+            )
+    return diagnoses
+
+
+# -- Two-child pentagon attachments ----------------------------------------
+# The three cross-model rows from the campaign's staged
+# uk/two_child.jsonl, translated into the normalized DB vocabulary and
+# pinned to exactly-one claim each. The fourth staged row is exhibit:true
+# without exhibit_meta (their contract would defer it) — the full
+# convention grid lands as this module's pe_exhibits instead. PE executed
+# the reinstated counterfactual as its baseline: pre_ab2025 (#13).
+_PENTAGON_TARGETS = {
+    # staged row index -> (label, SQL predicate, args builder)
+    0: (
+        "RF-cited government −450k claim (FY2029-30)",
+        "SELECT claim_id FROM external_scores"
+        " WHERE source='resolution_foundation'"
+        " AND metric='poverty_count_change' AND period=2029"
+        " AND json_extract(conditions,'$.attribution')="
+        "'Government estimate cited by RF'",
+    ),
+    1: (
+        "RF-cited HMT Budget-2025 two-child costing (FY2026-27)",
+        "SELECT claim_id FROM external_scores"
+        " WHERE source='resolution_foundation'"
+        " AND metric='exchequer_impact' AND period=2026"
+        " AND json_extract(conditions,'$.attribution')="
+        "'HM Treasury, Budget 2025 Table 4.1 (cited by RF)'"
+        " AND json_extract(conditions,'$.measure') LIKE"
+        " 'repeal two-child limit%'",
+    ),
+    2: (
+        "UKMOD CeMPA net-package children leg (FY2026-27)",
+        "SELECT claim_id FROM external_scores WHERE source='ukmod'"
+        " AND metric='poverty_count_change' AND period=2026"
+        " AND json_extract(conditions,'$.subgroup')='Children'"
+        " AND json_extract(conditions,'$.geography')='UK'"
+        " AND json_extract(conditions,'$.scenario')="
+        "'reform_minus_baseline'",
+    ),
+}
+
+
+def pentagon_results(db: ScorecardDB) -> tuple[list[PEResult], int]:
+    staged = [
+        json.loads(line)
+        for line in (CAMPAIGN / "uk" / "two_child.jsonl").read_text().splitlines()
+        if line.strip()
+    ]
+    results, deferred = [], 0
+    for i, row in enumerate(staged):
+        if row.get("exhibit"):
+            deferred += 1  # superseded by this module's full exhibit grid
+            continue
+        label, sql = _PENTAGON_TARGETS[i]
+        cid = _one(db, f"pentagon {label}", sql, ())
+        results.append(
+            PEResult(
+                claim_id=cid,
+                computed_value=row["pe_value"],
+                status=ComparisonStatus(row["status"]),
+                engine_version=row["engine_version"],
+                data_bundle=row["data_bundle"],
+                pe_construction=row["pe_construction"],
+                # Own namespace (the staged rows carry campaign-20260802-
+                # two-child; ingest_campaign's committed-DB provenance
+                # checks reserve the campaign-% prefix for the US bundle).
+                run_id="uk-two-child-pentagon-2026",
+                computed_at=row["computed_at"],
+                annotations=row["annotations"],
+                baseline_key=PRE_AB2025_KEY,
+            )
+        )
+    return results, deferred
+
+
+# -- exhibits: the two-child-limit counterfactual family -------------------
+_TWO_CHILD_REFORM = {
+    "framework": "policy_ref",
+    "reform": {"policy": "two_child_limit_removal"},
+    "baseline": {"policy": "pre_ab2025"},
+    "rulespec_ref": None,
+}
+_TWO_CHILD_NOTE = (
+    "PE 2026 current law already abolishes the UC two-child limit "
+    "(AB2025 encoded), so removal is measured against an executed "
+    "reinstated counterfactual (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child."
+    "limit.child_count: inf -> 2, born-pre-2017 exemptions active — the "
+    "actual partially-rolled-in 2026 law). Line convention contributes "
+    "zero (person-weighted medians identical between worlds); take-up "
+    "quantified at +34k via the entitlements-basis pair."
+)
+
+
+def two_child_exhibits() -> list[dict]:
+    reform_json = json.dumps(_TWO_CHILD_REFORM, sort_keys=True)
+    reform_key_ = "two-child-removal-vs-pre-ab2025"
+    rows = []
+
+    def add(
+        metric,
+        unit,
+        value,
+        baseline_value,
+        conditions,
+        engine,
+        data,
+        run_id,
+        extra_note="",
+    ):
+        delta = value - baseline_value if baseline_value is not None else None
+        rows.append(
+            {
+                "exhibit": "uk-two-child-limit",
+                "reform_key": reform_key_,
+                "reform_json": reform_json,
+                "metric": metric,
+                "unit_concept": unit,
+                "period": 2026,
+                "time_basis": "fiscal_year",
+                "conditions": conditions,
+                "geography": "UK",
+                "program": "universal_credit",
+                "value": value,
+                "baseline_value": baseline_value,
+                "delta": delta,
+                "engine_version": engine,
+                "data_bundle": data,
+                "run_id": run_id,
+                "computed_at": COMPUTED_AT,
+                "note": (_TWO_CHILD_NOTE + (" " + extra_note).rstrip()),
+                "baseline_key": PRE_AB2025_KEY,
+            }
+        )
+
+    for takeup, fname in (
+        ("calibrated", "uk_runs/two_child_fixed_line_2026.json"),
+        ("entitlements_basis", "uk_runs/two_child_fixed_line_fulltakeup_2026.json"),
+    ):
+        run = _load(fname)
+        engine, data = _bundle_meta(run["worlds"]["with_limit"]["bundle"])
+        res = run["results"]["floating"]
+        for group in ("hbai_dep", "u16", "all"):
+            add(
+                "poverty_count_change",
+                "persons" if group == "all" else "children_under_18",
+                res["without_limit"][group]["count"],
+                res["with_limit"][group]["count"],
+                {
+                    "takeup": takeup,
+                    "child_definition": group,
+                    "poverty_line": (
+                        "relative AHC 60% median, person-weighted, floating"
+                    ),
+                    "fy": "2026-27",
+                },
+                engine,
+                data,
+                f"uk-two-child-{takeup}-2026",
+            )
+        add(
+            "poverty_rate_change",
+            "percentage_points",
+            res["without_limit"]["hbai_dep"]["rate"] * 100,
+            res["with_limit"]["hbai_dep"]["rate"] * 100,
+            {
+                "takeup": takeup,
+                "child_definition": "hbai_dep",
+                "poverty_line": ("relative AHC 60% median, person-weighted, floating"),
+                "fy": "2026-27",
+            },
+            engine,
+            data,
+            f"uk-two-child-{takeup}-2026",
+        )
+        add(
+            "benefit_cost",
+            "gbp",
+            run["worlds"]["without_limit"]["aggregates_gbp"]["universal_credit"],
+            run["worlds"]["with_limit"]["aggregates_gbp"]["universal_credit"],
+            {"takeup": takeup, "measure": "uc_cost_of_removal", "fy": "2026-27"},
+            engine,
+            data,
+            f"uk-two-child-{takeup}-2026",
+            extra_note=(f"UC cost of removal {run['uc_cost_of_removal_gbp']:.0f} GBP."),
+        )
+
+    # Absolute-AHC continuity pair (the first-cut construction).
+    removal = _load("uk_runs/two_child_limit_removal_2026.json")
+    reinstate = _load("uk_runs/two_child_reinstate_2026.json")
+    engine, data = _bundle_meta(removal["bundle"])
+    add(
+        "poverty_count_change",
+        "children_under_18",
+        removal["poverty"]["count_child_u16"],
+        reinstate["poverty"]["count_child_u16"],
+        {
+            "takeup": "calibrated",
+            "child_definition": "u16",
+            "poverty_line": "absolute AHC (parameter threshold)",
+            "fy": "2026-27",
+        },
+        engine,
+        data,
+        "uk-two-child-absline-2026",
+        extra_note="Absolute-line continuity check (reproduces 181k u16).",
+    )
+    return rows
+
+
+# -- runner ---------------------------------------------------------------
+def ingest(db_path: Path) -> dict:
+    db = ScorecardDB(db_path)
+    stats: dict = {}
+
+    reckoner, reckoner_skips = reckoner_results(db)
+    free_joins = free_join_results(db)
+    measures = obr_measure_results(db)
+    uprating, uprating_skips = uprating_results(db)
+    pentagon, pentagon_deferred = pentagon_results(db)
+
+    all_results = reckoner + free_joins + measures + uprating + pentagon
+    stats["results"] = {
+        "uk_reckoner": len(reckoner),
+        "uk_free_joins": len(free_joins),
+        "uk_obr_measures": len(measures),
+        "uk_uprating": len(uprating),
+        "two_child_pentagon": len(pentagon),
+        "total": len(all_results),
+    }
+    stats["skipped"] = reckoner_skips + uprating_skips
+    stats["pentagon_exhibit_rows_superseded"] = pentagon_deferred
+
+    # Idempotent re-ingest: this batch owns its run ids.
+    run_ids = sorted({r.run_id for r in all_results})
+    with db.conn:
+        db.conn.execute(
+            "DELETE FROM pe_results WHERE run_id IN ("
+            + ",".join("?" * len(run_ids))
+            + ")",
+            run_ids,
+        )
+    db.add_results(all_results)
+
+    diagnoses = cpsp_diagnoses(db)
+    for cid, cls, rationale, link in diagnoses:
+        db.diagnose(cid, cls, rationale, link)
+    stats["diagnoses"] = len(diagnoses)
+
+    exhibits = two_child_exhibits()
+    with db.conn:
+        db.conn.execute("DELETE FROM pe_exhibits WHERE exhibit='uk-two-child-limit'")
+    stats["exhibits"] = db.add_exhibits(exhibits)
+
+    stats["baselines_registered"] = register_baselines(db)
+
+    joined_lanes = (
+        "hmrc-personal-tax",
+        "obr-measures",
+        "obr-welfare",
+        "dwp-takeup",
+        "rf-outlook",
+        "ukmod-stats",
+    )
+    for lane in joined_lanes:
+        row = db.conn.execute(
+            "SELECT detail FROM lanes WHERE lane=?", (lane,)
+        ).fetchone()
+        if row is None:
+            raise ValueError(f"campaign-uk: lane {lane} missing")
+        db.set_lane(lane, "computed", row["detail"], COMPUTED_AT[:10])
+    db.set_lane(
+        "campaign-uk-2026-08-02",
+        "computed",
+        f"{len(all_results)} UK PE results joined "
+        f"({stats['results']}); {stats['exhibits']} two-child exhibits vs "
+        "registered pre_ab2025 baseline; "
+        f"{stats['diagnoses']} CPSP register diagnoses; skips: "
+        + ("; ".join(stats["skipped"]) or "none"),
+        COMPUTED_AT[:10],
+    )
+    stats["coverage"] = db.coverage()
+    db.close()
+    return stats
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    import sys
+
+    out = Path(sys.argv[1] if len(sys.argv) > 1 else "data/scorecard.db")
+    print(json.dumps(ingest(out), indent=1))
diff --git a/scorecard_db/ingest_cpsp.py b/scorecard_db/ingest_cpsp.py
index ccde378..296201e 100644
--- a/scorecard_db/ingest_cpsp.py
+++ b/scorecard_db/ingest_cpsp.py
@@ -280,6 +280,9 @@ def ingest(db_path: Path) -> dict:
         erratum_claim(scores).claim_id(),
         "external_issue",
         ERRATUM_RATIONALE,
+        # Gated class (issue #9): the citable known issue is the source's
+        # own internal contradiction, documented in the vendored notes.
+        action_link="sources/harvest-2026-08-02/cpsp/NOTES.md#erratum",
     )
     db.set_lane(
         "cpsp-poverty",
diff --git a/scorecard_db/ingest_harvest.py b/scorecard_db/ingest_harvest.py
index 0328741..accd7b2 100644
--- a/scorecard_db/ingest_harvest.py
+++ b/scorecard_db/ingest_harvest.py
@@ -21,6 +21,7 @@
     ingest_tax_foundation,
     ingest_tpc,
 )
+from .baselines import register_baselines
 from .db import ScorecardDB
 from .harvest import REPO
 
@@ -121,6 +122,7 @@ def ingest(db_path: Path) -> dict:
     for name, adapter in ADAPTERS.items():
         stats[name] = adapter.ingest(db_path)
     db = ScorecardDB(db_path)
+    stats["baselines_registered"] = register_baselines(db)
     stats["lanes_synced"] = sync_lane_feed(
         db, REPO / "data" / "lanes.json", "2026-08-02"
     )
diff --git a/scorecard_db/ingest_platform.py b/scorecard_db/ingest_platform.py
index 10b0228..ea8118b 100644
--- a/scorecard_db/ingest_platform.py
+++ b/scorecard_db/ingest_platform.py
@@ -28,14 +28,20 @@
 from .ingest_urban import FULLPART_REFORM, POP_UNIT, UNITS_UNIT
 from .models import (
     BASELINE,
+    CURRENT_LAW_DESCRIPTOR,
     ComparisonStatus,
     ExternalScore,
     Metric,
     PEResult,
     TimeBasis,
     UnitConcept,
+    baseline_key,
 )
 
+# Platform-grid runs execute on the certified current-law world (fullpart
+# rows force take-up flags on that same world) — record it per issue #13.
+_CURRENT_LAW_KEY = baseline_key(CURRENT_LAW_DESCRIPTOR)
+
 REPO = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent
 
 # platform metric vocabulary -> (tidy program override, Metric)
@@ -165,6 +171,7 @@ def ingest(
                 run_id="platform-grid-2024",
                 computed_at=f"{comp.get('built', '')}T12:00:00",
                 annotations=row.get("annotations", []),
+                baseline_key=_CURRENT_LAW_KEY,
             )
         )
     if unmatched:
diff --git a/scorecard_db/ingest_solo.py b/scorecard_db/ingest_solo.py
index 1b8ac3c..dcd7b16 100644
--- a/scorecard_db/ingest_solo.py
+++ b/scorecard_db/ingest_solo.py
@@ -24,6 +24,7 @@
 
 from .db import ScorecardDB
 from .ingest_urban import solo_reform
+from .models import BASELINE
 
 COMPARISON_DIR = Path.home() / "populace-sotsn-takeup" / "comparison"
 REPO = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent
@@ -109,6 +110,7 @@ def ingest(db_path: Path, comparison_dir: Path = COMPARISON_DIR) -> dict:
                         "run_id": "solo-takeup-2024",
                         "computed_at": "2026-08-01T20:20:00",
                         "note": NOTE,
+                        "baseline_key": BASELINE.baseline_key(),
                     }
                 )
         if len(seen) != 52:
diff --git a/scorecard_db/ingest_uk.py b/scorecard_db/ingest_uk.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..0b0ad1d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scorecard_db/ingest_uk.py
@@ -0,0 +1,133 @@
+"""Run all seven 2026-08-02 UK-harvest adapters.
+
+    PYTHONPATH=. python -m scorecard_db.ingest_uk data/scorecard.db
+
+Beyond the per-source ingests this runner:
+
+1. Collects every admin-outturn row the adapters routed OUT of
+   external_scores and writes the Ledger staging file
+   (data/ledger/uk_admin_outturns.jsonl) — the populace/Ledger lane's
+   handoff, with deterministic pre-agreed fact ids (routing rule, Max
+   2026-08-02: admin facts → Ledger, model claims → Scorecard).
+2. Seeds the baselines registry and fails loudly on any baseline world
+   the data references that is not deliberately described (issue #13).
+3. Mirrors the UK lanes into data/lanes.json (the app's
+   mission-control feed), adding entries for the lanes new with this
+   population.
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import json
+from pathlib import Path
+
+from . import (
+    ingest_uk_dwp,
+    ingest_uk_hmrc,
+    ingest_uk_hmt,
+    ingest_uk_ifs,
+    ingest_uk_obr,
+    ingest_uk_rf,
+    ingest_uk_ukmod_jrf,
+)
+from .baselines import register_baselines
+from .db import ScorecardDB
+from .harvest import REPO
+from .ingest_harvest import sync_lane_feed
+from .uk import write_ledger_staging
+
+ADAPTERS = {
+    "uk_obr": ingest_uk_obr,
+    "uk_hmrc": ingest_uk_hmrc,
+    "uk_dwp": ingest_uk_dwp,
+    "uk_hmt": ingest_uk_hmt,
+    "uk_ukmod_jrf": ingest_uk_ukmod_jrf,
+    "uk_ifs": ingest_uk_ifs,
+    "uk_rf": ingest_uk_rf,
+}
+
+UK_LANE_FEED = {
+    "obr-measures": {
+        "source": "OBR",
+        "area": "policy measures database (1970→)",
+        "mode": 2,
+    },
+    "obr-welfare": {
+        "source": "OBR",
+        "area": "welfare trends / EFO baselines",
+        "mode": 1,
+    },
+    "hmrc-personal-tax": {
+        "source": "HMRC",
+        "area": "UK personal tax statistics",
+        "mode": 1,
+    },
+    "hbai-poverty": {
+        "source": "DWP HBAI",
+        "area": "UK poverty rates",
+        "mode": 1,
+    },
+    "dwp-takeup": {
+        "source": "DWP",
+        "area": "UK income-related benefits take-up",
+        "mode": 1,
+    },
+    "hmt-costings": {
+        "source": "HM Treasury",
+        "area": "fiscal-event scorecards + DA",
+        "mode": 2,
+    },
+    "ukmod-stats": {
+        "source": "UKMOD",
+        "area": "published statistics",
+        "mode": 1,
+    },
+    "ifs-taxben": {
+        "source": "IFS TAXBEN",
+        "area": "poverty + benefit options",
+        "mode": 2,
+    },
+    "rf-outlook": {
+        "source": "Resolution Foundation",
+        "area": "living standards outlook + Budget analysis",
+        "mode": 2,
+    },
+}
+
+
+def ingest(db_path: Path) -> dict:
+    stats: dict = {}
+    ledger_rows: list[dict] = []
+    for name, adapter in ADAPTERS.items():
+        # stage() runs twice (here for the ledger rows, again inside the
+        # adapter's own ingest) — staging is pure and cheap, and keeping
+        # each adapter independently runnable beats threading state.
+        ledger_rows.extend(adapter.stage()[1])
+        stats[name] = adapter.ingest(db_path)
+
+    stats["ledger_staging_rows"] = write_ledger_staging(ledger_rows)
+
+    db = ScorecardDB(db_path)
+    stats["baselines_registered"] = register_baselines(db)
+    stats["lanes_synced"] = sync_lane_feed(
+        db,
+        REPO / "data" / "lanes.json",
+        "2026-08-02",
+        lanes=UK_LANE_FEED,
+    )
+    stats["coverage"] = db.coverage()
+    stats["claims_by_source"] = {
+        r["source"]: r["n"]
+        for r in db.conn.execute(
+            "SELECT source, COUNT(*) n FROM external_scores GROUP BY source"
+        )
+    }
+    db.close()
+    return stats
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    import sys
+
+    out = Path(sys.argv[1] if len(sys.argv) > 1 else "data/scorecard.db")
+    print(json.dumps(ingest(out), indent=1))
diff --git a/scorecard_db/ingest_uk_dwp.py b/scorecard_db/ingest_uk_dwp.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..27d13a9
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scorecard_db/ingest_uk_dwp.py
@@ -0,0 +1,316 @@
+"""Ingest the DWP staged claims (2026-08-02 UK harvest).
+
+Four families:
+
+- **HBAI headline poverty** (dwp_hbai_frs, 1,040): rates and counts,
+  FYE 1995–2025, relative & absolute × BHC & AHC, two editions (FYE-2025
+  + the FYE-2024 admin-linked restatement pair — conditions["edition"]).
+  Survey-outcome statistics, NOT admin outturn: they stay scorecard-side
+  as permanent holdouts (poverty may never be a calibration target).
+- **Income-related-benefit take-up estimates** (dwp_takeup_estimates,
+  805): DWP's own eligibility-model estimates with lower/central/upper
+  bounds. Pension Credit rows arrive seed_source — policyengine-uk
+  gov/dwp/pension_credit/takeup.yaml cites this series (verified by the
+  harvest agent); HB rows stay held_out, the live external comparator
+  for PE-UK's takeup=1 assumption (policyengine-uk#1813).
+- **Benefit expenditure & caseload (BECL)**, Spring-2026, OBR-consistent
+  (dwp_becl, 204): outturn rows are admin facts → Ledger staging;
+  forecast rows enter. Expenditure forecasts whose benefit is a Table
+  4.9 line populace-UK literally consumes (targets/sources/obr.py, read
+  this session) → consumed_as_target: state_pension, universal_credit,
+  pension_credit, attendance_allowance, child_benefit. dla/pip stay
+  held_out — populace consumes only their COMBINED 4.9 line, and BECL
+  caseloads stay held_out — obr.py parses expenditure only.
+- **UC admin release** (dwp_uc_admin, 5, point-in-time Feb-2026):
+  consumed_as_target — targets/sources/dwp.py consumes UC claimant
+  counts and the payment distribution from this same admin series
+  (staged VERIFIED note, re-read this session).
+
+Period is re-derived from the fy label (FYE end-year convention and the
+'1999/00'→1900 staging defect both normalize to FY start year).
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import json
+from pathlib import Path
+
+from .db import ScorecardDB
+from .harvest import finish
+from .models import (
+    BASELINE,
+    CalibrationRelationship,
+    ExternalScore,
+    Metric,
+    TimeBasis,
+    UnitConcept,
+)
+from .uk import (
+    ledger_row,
+    load_staged_uk,
+    normalize_geography_uk,
+    parse_fy,
+    uk_value_kind,
+)
+
+_KNOWN_FIELDS = frozenset(
+    {
+        "source",
+        "metric",
+        "proposed_metric",
+        "unit_concept",
+        "proposed_unit",
+        "value",
+        "value_raw",
+        "value_kind",
+        "conversion",
+        "period",
+        "time_basis",
+        "conditions",
+        "reform",
+        "calibration_relationship",
+        "calibration_note",
+        "series_note",
+        "time_note",
+        "geography_note",
+        "unit_note",
+        "source_model",
+        "source_column",
+        "publication",
+        "status",
+    }
+)
+
+_CONDITION_KEYS = {
+    "geography": "geography",
+    "fy": "fy",
+    "edition": "edition",
+    "subgroup": "subgroup",
+    "income_concept": "income_concept",
+    "poverty_measure": "poverty_measure",
+    "poverty_line": "poverty_line",
+    "poverty_line_anchor": "poverty_line_anchor",
+    "equivalisation": "equivalisation",
+    "benefit": "program",
+    "entitlement_group": "entitlement_group",
+    "bound": "bound",
+    "takeup_basis": "takeup_basis",
+    "basis": "basis",
+    "data_vintage": "data_vintage",
+    "component": "component",
+    "family_type": "family_type",
+    "age_group": "age_group",
+    "month": "month",
+    "geography_note": "geography_note",
+}
+
+_METRICS = {
+    "poverty_rate": Metric.POVERTY_RATE,
+    "poverty_count": Metric.POVERTY_COUNT,
+    "participation_rate": Metric.PARTICIPATION_RATE,
+    "participation_gap_count": Metric.PARTICIPATION_GAP_COUNT,
+    "participant_count": Metric.PARTICIPANT_COUNT,
+    "benefit_cost": Metric.BENEFIT_COST,
+    "caseload": Metric.CASELOAD,
+    "unclaimed_expenditure": Metric.UNCLAIMED_EXPENDITURE,
+}
+
+_UNITS = {
+    "persons": UnitConcept.PERSONS,
+    "families": UnitConcept.FAMILIES,
+    "households": UnitConcept.HOUSEHOLDS,
+    "children_under_18": UnitConcept.CHILDREN_UNDER_18,
+    "adults_18plus": UnitConcept.ADULTS_18PLUS,
+}
+
+# BECL expenditure forecasts whose benefit is an exact Table 4.9 line
+# populace-UK consumes (policyengine-uk-data targets/sources/obr.py,
+# read 2026-08-02). BECL is published OBR-Spring-2026-consistent, so
+# these series are the same quantity class as the consumed forecasts.
+_BECL_CONSUMED = {
+    "state_pension": "obr/state_pension",
+    "universal_credit": "obr/universal_credit_in_cap + outside_cap",
+    "pension_credit": "obr/pension_credit",
+    "attendance_allowance": "obr/attendance_allowance",
+    "child_benefit": "obr/child_benefit",
+}
+_BECL_CONSUMED_BASIS = (
+    "BECL Spring-2026 is OBR-forecast-consistent and policyengine-uk-data "
+    "targets/sources/obr.py consumes the matching EFO Table 4.9 "
+    "expenditure line ({target}; read 2026-08-02) — same series class, so "
+    "agreement is discipline, not validation"
+)
+_BECL_COMPONENT_HELDOUT_NOTE = (
+    "held_out deliberately: populace-UK consumes only the COMBINED "
+    "DLA+PIP Table 4.9 line; this BECL component split is not itself a "
+    "target (partial discipline via the consumed aggregate, noted)"
+)
+_BECL_CASELOAD_NOTE = (
+    "held_out deliberately: targets/sources/obr.py parses Table 4.9 "
+    "expenditure only (read 2026-08-02) — BECL caseload forecasts are "
+    "not consumed"
+)
+
+
+def stage() -> tuple[list[ExternalScore], list[dict]]:
+    scores: list[ExternalScore] = []
+    ledger: list[dict] = []
+    for row in load_staged_uk("uk_dwp"):
+        unknown = set(row) - _KNOWN_FIELDS
+        if unknown:
+            raise ValueError(f"uk_dwp: unhandled fields {sorted(unknown)}")
+        if row["reform"] != {"framework": "baseline"}:
+            raise ValueError(f"uk_dwp: unexpected reform {row['reform']}")
+        conds_in = dict(row["conditions"])
+        if row["source_model"] == "dwp_becl" and conds_in.get("basis") == "outturn":
+            ledger.append(
+                ledger_row(
+                    "uk_dwp",
+                    row,
+                    "DWP BECL outturn — admin expenditure/caseload fact "
+                    "(ledger routing rule, Max 2026-08-02)",
+                )
+            )
+            continue
+
+        unknown_c = set(conds_in) - set(_CONDITION_KEYS)
+        if unknown_c:
+            raise ValueError(f"uk_dwp: unmapped conditions {sorted(unknown_c)}")
+        geography, geo_note = normalize_geography_uk(conds_in.pop("geography"))
+        conditions = {
+            _CONDITION_KEYS[k]: v
+            for k, v in conds_in.items()
+            if v is not None and k != "fy"
+        }
+        conditions["geography"] = geography
+        if geo_note:
+            conditions["geography_note"] = geo_note
+        if "fy" in conds_in:
+            period, fy_norm = parse_fy(conds_in["fy"])
+            conditions["fy"] = fy_norm
+        else:
+            if row["time_basis"] != "point_in_time":
+                raise ValueError("uk_dwp: fy missing on non-point-in-time row")
+            period = row["period"]
+
+        metric_name = row.get("metric") or row["proposed_metric"]
+        metric = _METRICS[metric_name]
+        if metric in (Metric.POVERTY_RATE, Metric.PARTICIPATION_RATE):
+            unit = UnitConcept.SHARE
+        elif row.get("unit_concept"):
+            unit = _UNITS[row["unit_concept"]]
+        elif (row.get("proposed_unit") or row.get("value_kind")) in (
+            "gbp",
+            "currency_gbp",
+        ):
+            unit = UnitConcept.GBP
+        else:
+            raise ValueError(f"uk_dwp: no unit for {metric_name}")
+
+        relationship = CalibrationRelationship(row["calibration_relationship"])
+        publication = dict(row["publication"])
+        if row.get("calibration_note"):
+            publication["calibration_basis"] = row["calibration_note"]
+        for note in ("series_note", "time_note", "unit_note"):
+            if row.get(note):
+                publication[note] = row[note]
+        if row.get("geography_note"):
+            # Verbatim devolution scope (DLA/PIP/AA England&Wales-only
+            # from FY 2020/21) — identity-adjacent, keep on conditions.
+            conditions["geography_note"] = row["geography_note"]
+        if row.get("time_note"):
+            # BECL Notes: caseloads are full-financial-year averages —
+            # load-bearing vs point-in-time admin counts (UC 5.47M FY-avg
+            # vs 7.2M Feb-2026), so it rides conditions.
+            conditions["caseload_basis"] = "fy_average"
+
+        if row["source_model"] == "dwp_becl":
+            program = conditions.get("program")
+            if metric is Metric.BENEFIT_COST and program in _BECL_CONSUMED:
+                relationship = CalibrationRelationship.CONSUMED_AS_TARGET
+                publication["calibration_basis"] = _BECL_CONSUMED_BASIS.format(
+                    target=_BECL_CONSUMED[program]
+                )
+            elif metric is Metric.BENEFIT_COST and program in ("dla", "pip"):
+                publication["calibration_basis"] = _BECL_COMPONENT_HELDOUT_NOTE
+            elif metric is Metric.CASELOAD:
+                publication["calibration_basis"] = _BECL_CASELOAD_NOTE
+        elif row["source_model"] == "dwp_uc_admin":
+            # Staged VERIFIED note: targets/sources/dwp.py consumes this
+            # same Feb-2026 admin series (re-read 2026-08-02).
+            relationship = CalibrationRelationship.CONSUMED_AS_TARGET
+
+        scores.append(
+            ExternalScore(
+                source="dwp",
+                source_model=row["source_model"],
+                metric=metric,
+                unit_concept=unit,
+                period=period,
+                time_basis=TimeBasis(row["time_basis"]),
+                value=row["value"],
+                conditions=conditions,
+                reform=BASELINE,
+                calibration_relationship=relationship,
+                source_column=row.get("source_column"),
+                publication=publication,
+                value_kind=uk_value_kind(row.get("value_kind"), unit.value),
+                status=row.get("status", "ok"),
+            )
+        )
+    return finish(scores, "uk_dwp"), ledger
+
+
+def ingest(db_path: Path) -> dict:
+    scores, ledger = stage()
+    db = ScorecardDB(db_path)
+    n = db.upsert_scores(scores)
+    by_model: dict[str, int] = {}
+    for s in scores:
+        by_model[s.source_model] = by_model.get(s.source_model, 0) + 1
+    consumed = sum(
+        1
+        for s in scores
+        if s.calibration_relationship is CalibrationRelationship.CONSUMED_AS_TARGET
+    )
+    seeded = sum(
+        1
+        for s in scores
+        if s.calibration_relationship is CalibrationRelationship.SEED_SOURCE
+    )
+    db.set_lane(
+        "hbai-poverty",
+        "ingested",
+        f"{by_model.get('dwp_hbai_frs', 0)} HBAI claims (FYE 1995-2025, "
+        "relative+absolute × BHC+AHC, rates+counts; FYE-2025 + admin-"
+        "linked FYE-2024 edition pair staged — the ~2pp methodology-gap "
+        "diagnosis seed); permanent poverty holdout",
+        "2026-08-02",
+    )
+    db.set_lane(
+        "dwp-takeup",
+        "ingested",
+        f"{by_model.get('dwp_takeup_estimates', 0)} take-up claims with "
+        f"bounds ({seeded} PC rows seed_source — pe-uk takeup.yaml cites "
+        "this series; HB rows held_out vs PE takeup=1, "
+        "policyengine-uk#1813); "
+        f"{by_model.get('dwp_becl', 0)} BECL forecast rows "
+        f"({consumed - by_model.get('dwp_uc_admin', 0)} expenditure lines "
+        "consumed_as_target via OBR 4.9); "
+        f"{len(ledger)} BECL outturn rows routed to Ledger staging",
+        "2026-08-02",
+    )
+    db.close()
+    return {
+        "scores": n,
+        "ledger": len(ledger),
+        "consumed": consumed,
+        "seed_source": seeded,
+    }
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    import sys
+
+    out = Path(sys.argv[1] if len(sys.argv) > 1 else "data/scorecard.db")
+    print(json.dumps(ingest(out), indent=1))
diff --git a/scorecard_db/ingest_uk_hmrc.py b/scorecard_db/ingest_uk_hmrc.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..69eeab1
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scorecard_db/ingest_uk_hmrc.py
@@ -0,0 +1,259 @@
+"""Ingest the HMRC staged claims (2026-08-02 UK harvest).
+
+Ledger routing does the heavy lifting here: HMRC's outturn statistics —
+SPI outturn tables, Child Benefit / tax credits / CGT / self-assessment
+admin statistics, including provisional cells — are admin facts and go
+to the Ledger staging file (1,855 rows). What enters external_scores is
+HMRC-the-model speaking (987 rows):
+
+- **Ready reckoner** (225): "Direct effects of illustrative tax changes"
+  — each line is a policy world (policy_ref uk_hmrc_rr:<slug>) at
+  FY 2026-27/2027-28/2028-29, behavioural per HMRC's methodology notes,
+  sign per bulletin note 33 (verbatim in conditions/publication). These
+  are the claims the campaign's reckoner runs join to (reform_hint is
+  the join key, slugified identically on both sides).
+- **SPI-based projections** (762): taxpayer counts, liabilities,
+  income aggregates and average tax by band/age/sex, projected years.
+  calibration: seed_source — policyengine-uk-data targets/sources/
+  hmrc_spi.py consumes SPI 3.6/3.7 (2023-24) and
+  utils/incomes_projection.py uprates from that same base (read
+  2026-08-02), so PE's income distribution and HMRC's projections share
+  the SPI seed; agreement is same-seed, not validation. Whole-population
+  liability totals are additionally the same quantity class as the
+  consumed obr/income_tax receipts target → consumed_as_target.
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import json
+from pathlib import Path
+
+from .db import ScorecardDB
+from .harvest import finish, policy_ref
+from .models import (
+    BASELINE,
+    CalibrationRelationship,
+    ExternalScore,
+    Metric,
+    TimeBasis,
+    UnitConcept,
+)
+from .uk import (
+    ledger_row,
+    load_staged_uk,
+    normalize_geography_uk,
+    parse_fy,
+    slugify,
+    uk_value_kind,
+)
+
+_KNOWN_FIELDS = frozenset(
+    {
+        "source",
+        "metric",
+        "proposed_metric",
+        "unit_concept",
+        "proposed_unit",
+        "value",
+        "value_raw",
+        "value_kind",
+        "period",
+        "time_basis",
+        "conditions",
+        "reform",
+        "reform_hint",
+        "sign_convention",
+        "unit_note",
+        "row_note",
+        "calibration_relationship",
+        "source_model",
+        "source_column",
+        "publication",
+        "status",
+    }
+)
+
+_CONDITION_KEYS = {
+    "geography": "geography",
+    "fy": "fy",
+    "basis": "basis",
+    "tax": "tax",
+    "band": "band",
+    "income_range_lower": "income_range_lower",
+    "tax_section": "tax_section",
+    "direction_semantics": "direction_semantics",
+    "age_group": "age_group",
+    "sex": "sex",
+}
+
+_METRICS = {
+    "revenue_change": Metric.REVENUE_CHANGE,
+    "taxpayer_count": Metric.TAXPAYER_COUNT,
+    "tax_liability": Metric.TAX_LIABILITY,
+    "income_aggregate": Metric.INCOME_AGGREGATE,
+    "average_tax_rate": Metric.AVERAGE_TAX_RATE,
+    "average_tax_amount": Metric.AVERAGE_TAX_AMOUNT,
+}
+
+_SPI_SEED_BASIS = (
+    "seed_source: policyengine-uk-data targets/sources/hmrc_spi.py "
+    "consumes SPI Tables 3.6/3.7 (tax year 2023-24) and "
+    "utils/incomes_projection.py uprates future years from the same "
+    "parsed band table (read 2026-08-02) — PE's income distribution and "
+    "HMRC's projection share the SPI seed"
+)
+_LIABILITY_TOTAL_BASIS = (
+    "consumed_as_target: whole-population income-tax liability is the "
+    "same quantity class as the obr/income_tax receipts forecast "
+    "populace-UK consumes (targets/sources/obr.py, read 2026-08-02); "
+    "band detail below the total stays seed_source (SPI-seeded)"
+)
+_TOTAL_BAND_MARKERS = frozenset({"all", "total", "all taxpayers"})
+
+
+def stage() -> tuple[list[ExternalScore], list[dict]]:
+    scores: list[ExternalScore] = []
+    ledger: list[dict] = []
+    for row in load_staged_uk("uk_hmrc"):
+        unknown = set(row) - _KNOWN_FIELDS
+        if unknown:
+            raise ValueError(f"uk_hmrc: unhandled fields {sorted(unknown)}")
+        basis = row["conditions"].get("basis")
+        if basis in ("outturn", "provisional"):
+            ledger.append(
+                ledger_row(
+                    "uk_hmrc",
+                    row,
+                    f"HMRC {row['source_model']} {basis} statistics — "
+                    "admin fact (ledger routing rule, Max 2026-08-02)",
+                )
+            )
+            continue
+        if basis != "projected":
+            raise ValueError(f"uk_hmrc: unexpected basis {basis!r}")
+        if row["reform"] != {"framework": "baseline"}:
+            raise ValueError(f"uk_hmrc: unexpected reform {row['reform']}")
+
+        conds_in = dict(row["conditions"])
+        unknown_c = set(conds_in) - set(_CONDITION_KEYS)
+        if unknown_c:
+            raise ValueError(f"uk_hmrc: unmapped conditions {sorted(unknown_c)}")
+        geography, geo_note = normalize_geography_uk(conds_in.pop("geography"))
+        period, fy_norm = parse_fy(conds_in.pop("fy"))
+        conditions = {
+            _CONDITION_KEYS[k]: v for k, v in conds_in.items() if v is not None
+        }
+        conditions["geography"] = geography
+        if geo_note:
+            conditions["geography_note"] = geo_note
+        conditions["fy"] = fy_norm
+
+        metric_name = row.get("metric") or row["proposed_metric"]
+        metric = _METRICS[metric_name]
+        is_rr = row["source_model"] == "hmrc"
+        if is_rr:
+            if not row.get("reform_hint"):
+                raise ValueError("uk_hmrc: ready-reckoner row without hint")
+            # The section is part of the world's identity: "Change
+            # standard rate by 1 percentage point" exists under both VAT
+            # and Insurance premium tax.
+            reform = policy_ref(
+                "uk_hmrc_rr:"
+                f"{slugify(conds_in['tax_section'], 30)}:"
+                f"{slugify(row['reform_hint'])}"
+            )
+            conditions["measure"] = row["reform_hint"]
+        else:
+            if row.get("reform_hint"):
+                raise ValueError("uk_hmrc: unexpected reform_hint")
+            reform = BASELINE
+
+        if metric is Metric.TAXPAYER_COUNT:
+            unit = UnitConcept.PERSONS
+        elif metric is Metric.AVERAGE_TAX_RATE:
+            unit = UnitConcept.SHARE
+        elif metric is Metric.AVERAGE_TAX_AMOUNT:
+            unit = UnitConcept.GBP_PER_PERSON
+        else:
+            unit = UnitConcept.GBP
+
+        relationship = CalibrationRelationship(row["calibration_relationship"])
+        publication = dict(row["publication"])
+        for note in ("sign_convention", "unit_note", "row_note"):
+            if row.get(note):
+                publication[note] = row[note]
+        if row["source_model"] == "hmrc_spi":
+            band = (conditions.get("band") or "").lower()
+            is_total = band in _TOTAL_BAND_MARKERS and not (
+                conditions.get("age_group") or conditions.get("sex")
+            )
+            if metric is Metric.TAX_LIABILITY and is_total:
+                relationship = CalibrationRelationship.CONSUMED_AS_TARGET
+                publication["calibration_basis"] = _LIABILITY_TOTAL_BASIS
+            else:
+                relationship = CalibrationRelationship.SEED_SOURCE
+                publication["calibration_basis"] = _SPI_SEED_BASIS
+
+        scores.append(
+            ExternalScore(
+                source="hmrc",
+                source_model=row["source_model"],
+                metric=metric,
+                unit_concept=unit,
+                period=period,
+                time_basis=TimeBasis(row["time_basis"]),
+                value=row["value"],
+                conditions=conditions,
+                reform=reform,
+                calibration_relationship=relationship,
+                source_column=row.get("source_column"),
+                publication=publication,
+                value_kind=uk_value_kind(row.get("value_kind"), unit.value),
+                status=row.get("status", "ok"),
+            )
+        )
+    return finish(scores, "uk_hmrc"), ledger
+
+
+def ingest(db_path: Path) -> dict:
+    scores, ledger = stage()
+    rr = sum(1 for s in scores if s.source_model == "hmrc")
+    consumed = sum(
+        1
+        for s in scores
+        if s.calibration_relationship is CalibrationRelationship.CONSUMED_AS_TARGET
+    )
+    seeded = sum(
+        1
+        for s in scores
+        if s.calibration_relationship is CalibrationRelationship.SEED_SOURCE
+    )
+    db = ScorecardDB(db_path)
+    n = db.upsert_scores(scores)
+    db.set_lane(
+        "hmrc-personal-tax",
+        "ingested",
+        f"{rr} ready-reckoner claims (policy worlds per line, FY2026-27+, "
+        "behavioural per HMRC notes — the campaign reckoner join surface) "
+        f"+ {n - rr} SPI-based projections ({seeded} seed_source via the "
+        f"shared SPI 2023-24 base, {consumed} whole-population liability "
+        "totals consumed-class); "
+        f"{len(ledger)} outturn/provisional admin rows routed to Ledger "
+        "staging",
+        "2026-08-02",
+    )
+    db.close()
+    return {
+        "scores": n,
+        "ledger": len(ledger),
+        "ready_reckoner": rr,
+        "consumed": consumed,
+        "seed_source": seeded,
+    }
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    import sys
+
+    out = Path(sys.argv[1] if len(sys.argv) > 1 else "data/scorecard.db")
+    print(json.dumps(ingest(out), indent=1))
diff --git a/scorecard_db/ingest_uk_hmt.py b/scorecard_db/ingest_uk_hmt.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..9984249
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scorecard_db/ingest_uk_hmt.py
@@ -0,0 +1,193 @@
+"""Ingest the HMT staged claims (2026-08-02 UK harvest).
+
+- **Scorecard costings** (1,218, hmt_costing_obr_certified): every
+  measure line of AB2024 Table 5.1, Budget 2025 Table 4.1 and SS2025
+  Table 3.1 — OBR-certified exchequer impacts. Each measure title is a
+  policy_ref world (uk_hmt:<event>:<title-hash>) scored against current
+  law at announcement; row_type (measure|total|of_which), scorecard_line
+  and Tax/Spend head ride conditions verbatim. Metric is
+  exchequer_impact, NOT revenue_change — the footnote classifies lines
+  by LARGEST impact, so Tax/Spend heads mix (deliberate mapping,
+  COLLATION UK worklist item 1). Suppressed cells ("*", negligible)
+  stage as status=suppressed.
+- **Distributional analysis** (150, hmt_distributional_analysis_igotm):
+  Annex Table 2.C median gross income by decile × household composition
+  — baseline level claims with the full IGOTM income-concept string
+  (equivalised, BHC, modified-OECD) verbatim in conditions.
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import json
+from pathlib import Path
+
+from .db import ScorecardDB
+from .harvest import finish, policy_ref
+from .models import (
+    BASELINE,
+    CalibrationRelationship,
+    ExternalScore,
+    Metric,
+    TimeBasis,
+    UnitConcept,
+)
+from .uk import (
+    ledger_row,
+    load_staged_uk,
+    measure_slug,
+    normalize_geography_uk,
+    parse_fy,
+)
+
+_KNOWN_FIELDS = frozenset(
+    {
+        "source",
+        "proposed_metric",
+        "proposed_unit",
+        "value",
+        "value_raw",
+        "conversion",
+        "metric_note",
+        "parse_confidence",
+        "sign_note",
+        "period",
+        "time_basis",
+        "conditions",
+        "reform",
+        "reform_hint",
+        "calibration_relationship",
+        "source_model",
+        "source_column",
+        "source_table",
+        "publication",
+        "status",
+        "name_note",
+        "suppression_note",
+    }
+)
+
+_CONDITION_KEYS = {
+    "geography": "geography",
+    "fiscal_event": "fiscal_event",
+    "fiscal_year": "fy",
+    "row_type": "row_type",
+    "section": "section",
+    "scorecard_line": "scorecard_line",
+    "head": "head",
+    "decile": "decile",
+    "household_composition": "household_composition",
+    "income_concept": "income_concept",
+    "decile_definition": "decile_definition",
+    "equivalisation": "equivalisation",
+}
+
+_METRICS = {
+    "exchequer_impact": Metric.EXCHEQUER_IMPACT,
+    "median_gross_income": Metric.MEDIAN_INCOME,
+}
+
+
+def stage() -> tuple[list[ExternalScore], list[dict]]:
+    scores: list[ExternalScore] = []
+    ledger: list[dict] = []
+    for row in load_staged_uk("uk_hmt"):
+        unknown = set(row) - _KNOWN_FIELDS
+        if unknown:
+            raise ValueError(f"uk_hmt: unhandled fields {sorted(unknown)}")
+        if row["parse_confidence"] != "high":
+            raise ValueError(
+                f"uk_hmt: non-high parse confidence needs review: "
+                f"{row['parse_confidence']!r}"
+            )
+        conds_in = dict(row["conditions"])
+        unknown_c = set(conds_in) - set(_CONDITION_KEYS)
+        if unknown_c:
+            raise ValueError(f"uk_hmt: unmapped conditions {sorted(unknown_c)}")
+
+        geography, geo_note = normalize_geography_uk(conds_in.pop("geography"))
+        period, fy_norm = parse_fy(conds_in.pop("fiscal_year"))
+        conditions = {
+            _CONDITION_KEYS[k]: v for k, v in conds_in.items() if v is not None
+        }
+        conditions["geography"] = geography
+        if geo_note:
+            conditions["geography_note"] = geo_note
+        conditions["fy"] = fy_norm
+
+        metric = _METRICS[row["proposed_metric"]]
+        is_costing = row["source_model"] == "hmt_costing_obr_certified"
+        if is_costing:
+            hint = row["reform_hint"]
+            if not hint:
+                raise ValueError("uk_hmt: costing row without reform_hint")
+            if "reform" in row:
+                raise ValueError("uk_hmt: costing row carries reform field")
+            reform = policy_ref(measure_slug("uk_hmt", conds_in["fiscal_event"], hint))
+            conditions["measure"] = hint
+            unit = UnitConcept.GBP
+            value_kind = "gbp"
+        else:
+            if row.get("reform", {"framework": "baseline"}) != {
+                "framework": "baseline"
+            }:
+                raise ValueError(f"uk_hmt: unexpected reform {row['reform']}")
+            reform = BASELINE
+            unit = UnitConcept.GBP_PER_HOUSEHOLD
+            value_kind = "gbp"
+
+        publication = dict(row["publication"])
+        if row.get("source_table"):
+            publication.setdefault("table", row["source_table"])
+        for note in ("sign_note", "metric_note", "name_note", "suppression_note"):
+            if row.get(note):
+                publication[note] = row[note]
+
+        scores.append(
+            ExternalScore(
+                source="hmt",
+                source_model=row["source_model"],
+                metric=metric,
+                unit_concept=unit,
+                period=period,
+                time_basis=TimeBasis(row["time_basis"]),
+                value=row["value"],
+                conditions=conditions,
+                reform=reform,
+                calibration_relationship=CalibrationRelationship(
+                    row["calibration_relationship"]
+                ),
+                source_column=row.get("source_column"),
+                publication=publication,
+                value_kind=value_kind,
+                status=row.get("status", "ok"),
+            )
+        )
+    return finish(scores, "uk_hmt"), ledger
+
+
+def ingest(db_path: Path) -> dict:
+    scores, ledger = stage()
+    costings = sum(1 for s in scores if s.source_model == "hmt_costing_obr_certified")
+    suppressed = sum(1 for s in scores if s.status == "suppressed")
+    db = ScorecardDB(db_path)
+    n = db.upsert_scores(scores)
+    db.set_lane(
+        "hmt-costings",
+        "ingested",
+        f"{costings} OBR-certified scorecard costings (AB2024 5.1 / "
+        "B2025 4.1 / SS2025 3.1; exchequer_impact — Tax/Spend heads mix "
+        f"by design; {suppressed} suppressed cells verbatim) + "
+        f"{n - costings} IGOTM decile medians (annex 2.C); B2025 "
+        "two-child measure title embeds the government's 450k-children "
+        "poverty claim — pentagon leg",
+        "2026-08-02",
+    )
+    db.close()
+    return {"scores": n, "ledger": len(ledger), "costings": costings}
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    import sys
+
+    out = Path(sys.argv[1] if len(sys.argv) > 1 else "data/scorecard.db")
+    print(json.dumps(ingest(out), indent=1))
diff --git a/scorecard_db/ingest_uk_ifs.py b/scorecard_db/ingest_uk_ifs.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..92e2bba
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scorecard_db/ingest_uk_ifs.py
@@ -0,0 +1,282 @@
+"""Ingest the IFS TAXBEN staged claims (2026-08-02 UK harvest).
+
+268 rows: absolute-AHC child-poverty series and the Green-Budget-2025
+benefit-options block (13 options × poverty/cost/distribution metrics),
+Autumn-Budget-2025 package analysis, and threshold-freeze revenue rows.
+
+The options block is scored against a named non-current-law baseline —
+"current tax-benefit system with two-child limit and family premium
+removal fully rolled out" (steady state) — which becomes the registered
+baseline world ifs_2cl_fp_removal_rolled_out on the ReformRef (issue
+#13: baseline variants are load-bearing, never conditions-only; the
+steady-state horizon additionally rides conditions["horizon"]). IFS
+TAXBEN is deliberately full-take-up (entitlements basis) — the
+assumptions-registry axis on every UK poverty comparison.
+
+Poverty metrics stay permanent holdouts; everything is held_out as
+staged (no populace-UK consumption of IFS outputs).
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import json
+from pathlib import Path
+
+from .db import ScorecardDB
+from .harvest import finish, with_baseline_condition
+from .models import (
+    BASELINE,
+    CalibrationRelationship,
+    ExternalScore,
+    Metric,
+    ReformRef,
+    TimeBasis,
+    UnitConcept,
+)
+from .uk import (
+    load_staged_uk,
+    normalize_geography_uk,
+    parse_fy,
+    slugify,
+)
+
+_KNOWN_FIELDS = frozenset(
+    {
+        "source",
+        "metric",
+        "proposed_metric",
+        "unit_concept",
+        "proposed_unit",
+        "value",
+        "value_raw",
+        "normalization",
+        "parse_confidence",
+        "sign_convention",
+        "geography_note",
+        "period",
+        "time_basis",
+        "conditions",
+        "reform_hint",
+        "calibration_relationship",
+        "source_model",
+        "source_column",
+        "source_table",
+        "publication",
+    }
+)
+
+_CONDITION_KEYS = {
+    "geography": "geography",
+    "fy": "fy",
+    "income_concept": "income_concept",
+    "population": "subgroup",
+    "poverty_measure": "poverty_measure",
+    "poverty_line": "poverty_line",
+    "data_vintage": "data_vintage",
+    "baseline": None,  # handled: becomes the ReformRef baseline world
+    "time_note": None,  # handled: steady-state horizon marker
+    "income_group": "income_group",
+    "income_axis": "income_axis",
+    "share_denominator": "share_denominator",
+    "tax_category": "tax_category",
+    "counterfactual": "counterfactual",
+    "policy": "policy_note",
+    "program": "program",
+    # provenance notes -> publication
+    "method_note": None,
+    "scope_note": None,
+    "costing_basis": None,
+    "row_source_note": None,
+    "description_verbatim": "description",
+    "uncertainty_verbatim": None,
+    "attribution_note": None,
+}
+_PUBLICATION_NOTES = (
+    "method_note",
+    "scope_note",
+    "costing_basis",
+    "row_source_note",
+    "uncertainty_verbatim",
+    "attribution_note",
+)
+
+_METRICS = {
+    "poverty_rate": (Metric.POVERTY_RATE, UnitConcept.SHARE),
+    "poverty_rate_change": (
+        Metric.POVERTY_RATE_CHANGE,
+        UnitConcept.PERCENTAGE_POINTS,
+    ),
+    "revenue_change": (Metric.REVENUE_CHANGE, UnitConcept.GBP),
+    "benefit_spending_change": (
+        Metric.EXPENDITURE_CHANGE,
+        UnitConcept.GBP,
+    ),
+    "share_of_spending_to_group": (
+        Metric.SHARE_OF_SPENDING_TO_GROUP,
+        UnitConcept.PERCENT,
+    ),
+    "avg_change_household_net_income": (
+        Metric.AVG_CHANGE_HOUSEHOLD_NET_INCOME,
+        UnitConcept.GBP_PER_YEAR,
+    ),
+    "cost_per_child_lifted_out_of_poverty": (
+        Metric.COST_PER_CHILD_LIFTED_OUT_OF_POVERTY,
+        UnitConcept.GBP,
+    ),
+    "taxpayer_count_change": (
+        Metric.TAXPAYER_COUNT_CHANGE,
+        UnitConcept.PERSONS,
+    ),
+    "families_affected_count": (
+        Metric.FAMILIES_AFFECTED_COUNT,
+        UnitConcept.FAMILIES,
+    ),
+}
+_COUNT_UNITS = {
+    "children_under_18": UnitConcept.CHILDREN_UNDER_18,
+    "persons": UnitConcept.PERSONS,
+}
+
+# The Green-Budget options baseline (verbatim staged condition value).
+STEADY_STATE_BASELINE = {"policy": "ifs_2cl_fp_removal_rolled_out"}
+_STEADY_STATE_VERBATIM = (
+    "current tax-benefit system with two-child limit and family premium "
+    "removal fully rolled out"
+)
+
+
+def stage() -> tuple[list[ExternalScore], list[dict]]:
+    scores: list[ExternalScore] = []
+    for row in load_staged_uk("uk_ifs"):
+        unknown = set(row) - _KNOWN_FIELDS
+        if unknown:
+            raise ValueError(f"uk_ifs: unhandled fields {sorted(unknown)}")
+        conds_in = dict(row["conditions"])
+        unknown_c = set(conds_in) - set(_CONDITION_KEYS)
+        if unknown_c:
+            raise ValueError(f"uk_ifs: unmapped conditions {sorted(unknown_c)}")
+
+        geography, geo_note = normalize_geography_uk(conds_in.pop("geography"))
+        conditions = {}
+        for k, v in conds_in.items():
+            target = _CONDITION_KEYS[k]
+            if target and v is not None and k != "fy":
+                conditions[target] = v
+        conditions["geography"] = geography
+        if geo_note:
+            conditions["geography_note"] = geo_note
+        if "fy" in conds_in:
+            period, fy_norm = parse_fy(conds_in["fy"])
+            conditions["fy"] = fy_norm
+        else:
+            period = row["period"]  # calendar-year series rows
+
+        baseline_verbatim = conds_in.get("baseline")
+        if baseline_verbatim is not None:
+            if baseline_verbatim != _STEADY_STATE_VERBATIM:
+                raise ValueError(f"uk_ifs: unregistered baseline {baseline_verbatim!r}")
+            conditions["horizon"] = "steady_state"
+
+        hint = row.get("reform_hint")
+        if hint:
+            reform = ReformRef(
+                framework="policy_ref",
+                reform={"policy": f"uk_ifs:{slugify(hint)}"},
+                baseline=(STEADY_STATE_BASELINE if baseline_verbatim else None),
+            )
+            conditions["measure"] = hint
+            conditions = with_baseline_condition(conditions, reform)
+        elif baseline_verbatim:
+            # Level claim of the steady-state world itself.
+            reform = ReformRef(
+                framework="policy_ref", reform=dict(STEADY_STATE_BASELINE)
+            )
+        else:
+            reform = BASELINE
+
+        metric_name = row.get("metric") or row["proposed_metric"]
+        if metric_name == "poverty_count_change":
+            metric = Metric.POVERTY_COUNT_CHANGE
+            unit = _COUNT_UNITS[row["unit_concept"]]
+        else:
+            metric, unit = _METRICS[metric_name]
+        if metric is Metric.SHARE_OF_SPENDING_TO_GROUP:
+            # The recipient group lives only in the column header
+            # ("Of which transfers to households with children in
+            # poverty" / "…poorest 40% not in poverty" / "…richest 60%")
+            # — identity-bearing, so it becomes a condition verbatim.
+            conditions["recipient_group"] = row["source_column"]
+
+        publication = dict(row["publication"])
+        if row.get("source_table"):
+            publication.setdefault("table", row["source_table"])
+        for note in ("normalization", "sign_convention", "geography_note"):
+            if row.get(note):
+                publication[note] = row[note]
+        for k in _PUBLICATION_NOTES:
+            if conds_in.get(k):
+                publication[k] = conds_in[k]
+
+        scores.append(
+            ExternalScore(
+                source="ifs",
+                source_model=row["source_model"],
+                metric=metric,
+                unit_concept=unit,
+                period=period,
+                time_basis=TimeBasis(row["time_basis"]),
+                value=row["value"],
+                conditions=conditions,
+                reform=reform,
+                calibration_relationship=CalibrationRelationship(
+                    row["calibration_relationship"]
+                ),
+                source_column=row.get("source_column"),
+                publication=publication,
+                value_kind=(
+                    "gbp"
+                    if unit
+                    in (
+                        UnitConcept.GBP,
+                        UnitConcept.GBP_PER_YEAR,
+                    )
+                    else "share"
+                    if unit
+                    in (
+                        UnitConcept.SHARE,
+                        UnitConcept.PERCENT,
+                        UnitConcept.PERCENTAGE_POINTS,
+                    )
+                    else "count"
+                ),
+            )
+        )
+    return finish(scores, "uk_ifs"), []
+
+
+def ingest(db_path: Path) -> dict:
+    scores, _ = stage()
+    reform_rows = sum(1 for s in scores if s.reform is not BASELINE)
+    db = ScorecardDB(db_path)
+    n = db.upsert_scores(scores)
+    db.set_lane(
+        "ifs-taxben",
+        "ingested",
+        f"{n} TAXBEN claims: absolute-AHC child-poverty series, "
+        f"Green-Budget-2025 options block ({reform_rows} reform-keyed "
+        "rows incl. the −540k steady-state two-child-limit leg of the "
+        "pentagon), threshold-freeze revenue rows; options baseline = "
+        "registered ifs_2cl_fp_removal_rolled_out world; TAXBEN is "
+        "entitlements-basis (full take-up) — registry axis on every "
+        "poverty comparison",
+        "2026-08-02",
+    )
+    db.close()
+    return {"scores": n, "reform_rows": reform_rows}
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    import sys
+
+    out = Path(sys.argv[1] if len(sys.argv) > 1 else "data/scorecard.db")
+    print(json.dumps(ingest(out), indent=1))
diff --git a/scorecard_db/ingest_uk_obr.py b/scorecard_db/ingest_uk_obr.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..561186f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scorecard_db/ingest_uk_obr.py
@@ -0,0 +1,439 @@
+"""Ingest the OBR staged claims (2026-08-02 UK harvest).
+
+Two families:
+
+1. **Policy measures database** (24,304 rows, source_model
+   hmt_scorecard_obr_database): every scorecard measure since 1970 ×
+   fiscal years — reform scores. Each measure title becomes a policy_ref
+   world (uk_obr_measure:<event>:<title-hash>) with the verbatim title in
+   conditions["measure"]; scored against current law at announcement
+   (null baseline — JCT parity), the event riding conditions.
+   sign_convention is uniform positive_gain_to_exchequer.
+
+2. **EFO supplementary tables** (1,254 rows, source_model
+   obr_efo_forecast): Mar-2026 receipts levels (3.4 accrued / 3.8 cash)
+   and threshold-freeze analysis (3.17 revenue re-estimates →
+   policy_ref worlds; 3.18 taxpayer counts; 3.19 parameter levels —
+   scenario rides conditions verbatim, basis "unstated" per the tables'
+   own missing markers), plus Nov-2025 welfare spending (4.9/4.11 — the
+   Mar-2026 expenditure tables are still in the fetch queue;
+   conditions["data_vintage"] carries the split). Table id, 4.9
+   welfare-cap section, and 4.11 parent line are reconstructed as
+   conditions — the same labels recur across tables/sections.
+
+Ledger routing: the 133 EFO outturn columns (2024-25 receipts /
+expenditure outturn) are admin facts → returned for the Ledger staging
+file, not external_scores.
+
+calibration_relationship: forecast rows whose line matches a series
+populace-UK literally consumes are reclassed consumed_as_target. The
+consumed sets were read from policyengine-uk-data
+targets/sources/obr.py THIS session (2026-08-02): income tax gross +
+NICs classes from Table 3.4, VAT/fuel duties/CGT/SDLT from 3.9 (staged
+here from the 3.8 cash-receipts summary — same head, table noted),
+council tax from 4.1 (staged from 3.8), and the twelve Table 4.9 welfare
+lines. Everything else stays held_out.
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import json
+import re
+from pathlib import Path
+
+from .db import ScorecardDB
+from .harvest import finish, policy_ref
+from .models import (
+    BASELINE,
+    CalibrationRelationship,
+    ExternalScore,
+    Metric,
+    TimeBasis,
+    UnitConcept,
+)
+from .uk import (
+    ledger_row,
+    load_staged_uk,
+    measure_slug,
+    normalize_geography_uk,
+    parse_fy,
+)
+
+_KNOWN_FIELDS = frozenset(
+    {
+        "source",
+        "metric",
+        "proposed_metric",
+        "unit_concept",
+        "proposed_unit",
+        "normalization",
+        "period",
+        "time_basis",
+        "conditions",
+        "reform_hint",
+        "calibration_relationship",
+        "source_model",
+        "source_column",
+        "source_table",
+        "value",
+        "value_raw",
+        "publication",
+        "status",
+    }
+)
+
+_MEASURE_CONDITIONS = {
+    "geography": "geography",
+    "fy": "fy",
+    "fiscal_event": "fiscal_event",
+    "tax_head": "tax_head",
+    "spending_head": "spending_head",
+    "impact_channel": "impact_channel",
+    "basis": "basis",
+    "costing_phase": "costing_phase",
+    "sign_convention": "sign_convention",
+}
+_EFO_CONDITIONS = {
+    "geography": "geography",
+    "fy": "fy",
+    "basis": "basis",
+    "line_item": "line_item",
+    "section": "section",
+    "note": "note",
+    "domain": "domain",
+}
+
+_METRICS = {
+    "revenue_change": Metric.REVENUE_CHANGE,
+    "benefit_cost": Metric.BENEFIT_COST,
+    "exchequer_impact": Metric.EXCHEQUER_IMPACT,
+    "revenue_level": Metric.REVENUE_LEVEL,
+    "policy_parameter_level": Metric.POLICY_PARAMETER_LEVEL,
+    "taxpayer_count": Metric.TAXPAYER_COUNT,
+}
+
+# Consumed line matching (read from policyengine-uk-data
+# targets/sources/obr.py this session). Receipts heads are matched on
+# revenue_level line_items in the 3.4/3.8 staged tables; welfare lines on
+# 4.9 benefit_cost line_items after stripping trailing footnote digits.
+_CONSUMED_RECEIPTS = {
+    "Income tax (gross of tax credits)": "obr/income_tax (Table 3.4)",
+    "National insurance contributions": "obr/ni (Table 3.9 cash head)",
+    "Value added tax": "obr/vat (Table 3.9 cash head)",
+    "Fuel duties": "obr/fuel_duties (Table 3.9 cash head)",
+    "Capital gains tax": "obr/capital_gains_tax (Table 3.9 cash head)",
+    "Stamp duty land tax": "obr/sdlt (Table 3.9 cash head)",
+    "Council tax": "obr council-tax lines (Table 4.1)",
+    "Class 1 Employee NICs": "obr NICs class parse (Table 3.4)",
+    "Class 1 Employer NICs": "obr NICs class parse (Table 3.4)",
+    "Class 4 and Class 2 Self employed NICs": "obr NICs class parse (Table 3.4)",
+    "Class 2 and Class 4 Self employed NICs": "obr NICs class parse (Table 3.4)",
+}
+_CONSUMED_WELFARE = {
+    # (label after footnote-stripping, 4.9 section) -> target. pe-uk-data
+    # matches labels in workbook order; UC appears in BOTH sections and
+    # feeds two distinct targets.
+    ("Housing benefit (not on JSA)", "welfare_cap"): "obr/housing_benefit",
+    (
+        "Disability living allowance and personal independence payments",
+        "welfare_cap",
+    ): "obr/pip (combined DLA+PIP line)",
+    ("Incapacity benefits", "welfare_cap"): "obr/esa",
+    ("Attendance allowance", "welfare_cap"): "obr/attendance_allowance",
+    ("Pension credit", "welfare_cap"): "obr/pension_credit",
+    ("Carer's allowance", "welfare_cap"): "obr/carers_allowance",
+    ("Statutory maternity pay", "welfare_cap"): "obr/statutory_maternity_pay",
+    ("Winter fuel payment", "welfare_cap"): "obr/winter_fuel_allowance",
+    ("Universal credit", "welfare_cap"): "obr/universal_credit_in_cap",
+    ("Child benefit", "welfare_cap"): "obr/child_benefit",
+    ("Universal credit", "outside_welfare_cap"): "obr/universal_credit_outside_cap",
+    ("State pension", "outside_welfare_cap"): "obr/state_pension",
+    ("Jobseeker's allowance", "outside_welfare_cap"): "obr/jobseekers_allowance",
+}
+_CONSUMED_BASIS = (
+    "policyengine-uk-data targets/sources/obr.py parses this EFO series "
+    "into {target} (read 2026-08-02){vintage}; agreement is discipline, "
+    "not validation"
+)
+_WELFARE_VINTAGE_CAVEAT = (
+    " — populace consumes the Mar-2026 EFO successor of this series; the "
+    "staged 4.9 vintage is Nov-2025 (Mar-2026 expenditure tables pending "
+    "fetch), same series one vintage earlier"
+)
+
+
+def _strip_footnote(label: str) -> str:
+    return re.sub(r"\d+$", "", label.strip()).strip()
+
+
+def _consumed_target(row: dict, section: str | None) -> str | None:
+    """Target name when populace-UK consumes this EFO line, else None."""
+    if row["source_model"] != "obr_efo_forecast":
+        return None
+    line = _strip_footnote(row["conditions"].get("line_item", ""))
+    table = (row.get("source_table") or "").split(":")[0]
+    metric = row.get("metric") or row.get("proposed_metric")
+    if metric == "revenue_level" and table in ("3.4", "3.8"):
+        return _CONSUMED_RECEIPTS.get(line)
+    if metric == "benefit_cost" and table == "4.9":
+        return _CONSUMED_WELFARE.get((line, section))
+    return None
+
+
+_EFO_VINTAGES = {
+    "March 2026": "march_2026_efo",
+    "November 2025": "november_2025_efo",
+}
+
+
+def _efo_vintage(row: dict) -> str:
+    title = row["publication"].get("title", "")
+    for needle, slug in _EFO_VINTAGES.items():
+        if needle in title:
+            return slug
+    raise ValueError(f"uk_obr: unrecognized EFO vintage in {title!r}")
+
+
+def _derive_49_sections(rows: list[dict]) -> dict[int, str]:
+    """Reconstruct Table 4.9's welfare-cap / outside-cap sections (the
+    staging dropped the marker; the same subtotal labels recur in both).
+    Workbook order is preserved: the section flips after each section
+    total."""
+    sections: dict[int, str] = {}
+    current, prev_line = "welfare_cap", None
+    boundary = {
+        "Total welfare cap": "outside_welfare_cap",
+        "Total welfare outside the welfare cap": "total",
+    }
+    for i, row in enumerate(rows):
+        if row.get("source_model") != "obr_efo_forecast":
+            continue
+        if not (row.get("source_table") or "").startswith("4.9"):
+            continue
+        line = row["conditions"]["line_item"]
+        if line != prev_line and prev_line in boundary:
+            current = boundary[prev_line]
+        sections[i] = current
+        prev_line = line
+    return sections
+
+
+_411_GROUPS = frozenset({"Children", "Working-age", "Pensioner"})
+
+
+def _derive_411_parents(rows: list[dict]) -> dict[int, str]:
+    """Table 4.11 nests Children/Working-age/Pensioner group rows under
+    each spending category (Disability spending, DLA, PIP, totals, …);
+    the staging kept only the group label, so the same label recurs under
+    several parents. Workbook order is preserved: a group row's parent is
+    the nearest preceding non-group line."""
+    parents: dict[int, str] = {}
+    parent = None
+    for i, row in enumerate(rows):
+        if row.get("source_model") != "obr_efo_forecast":
+            continue
+        if not (row.get("source_table") or "").startswith("4.11"):
+            continue
+        line = row["conditions"]["line_item"]
+        if line in _411_GROUPS:
+            if parent is None:
+                raise ValueError("uk_obr: 4.11 group row before any parent")
+            parents[i] = parent
+        else:
+            parent = line
+    return parents
+
+
+def _component_runs(rows: list[dict]) -> dict[int, int]:
+    """The measures database scores one titled measure as several
+    component series — usually one per tax/spending head, sometimes two
+    under the same abbreviated head (Budget 2015 #2's non-dom measure has
+    two 'Stamp duty' components). The staging preserves workbook order:
+    each component is one consecutive run of increasing fiscal years, so
+    a year reset inside an unchanged (event, title, head) marks the next
+    component. The measure title stays the reform world (the database's
+    own unit of identity); the component seq is a conditions axis.
+    Returns staged-row-index -> component seq (1-based) per that key."""
+    seq: dict[int, int] = {}
+    runs_seen: dict[tuple, int] = {}
+    prev_key, prev_start = None, None
+    for i, row in enumerate(rows):
+        if row["source_model"] != "hmt_scorecard_obr_database":
+            continue
+        c = row["conditions"]
+        key = (
+            c["fiscal_event"],
+            row["reform_hint"],
+            c.get("tax_head") or c.get("spending_head"),
+        )
+        start, _ = parse_fy(c["fy"])
+        new_run = key != prev_key or (prev_start is not None and start <= prev_start)
+        if new_run:
+            runs_seen[key] = runs_seen.get(key, 0) + 1
+        seq[i] = runs_seen[key]
+        prev_key, prev_start = key, start
+    return seq
+
+
+def stage() -> tuple[list[ExternalScore], list[dict]]:
+    scores: list[ExternalScore] = []
+    ledger: list[dict] = []
+    staged_rows = load_staged_uk("uk_obr")
+    component = _component_runs(staged_rows)
+    sections49 = _derive_49_sections(staged_rows)
+    parents411 = _derive_411_parents(staged_rows)
+    for i, row in enumerate(staged_rows):
+        unknown = set(row) - _KNOWN_FIELDS
+        if unknown:
+            raise ValueError(f"uk_obr: unhandled fields {sorted(unknown)}")
+        conds_in = dict(row["conditions"])
+        basis = conds_in.get("basis")
+        if basis == "outturn":
+            derived = {}
+            if i in sections49:
+                derived["section"] = sections49[i]
+            if i in parents411:
+                derived["parent_line"] = parents411[i]
+            ledger.append(
+                ledger_row(
+                    "uk_obr",
+                    row,
+                    "OBR EFO outturn column — admin receipts/expenditure "
+                    "fact (ledger routing rule, Max 2026-08-02)",
+                    derived=derived or None,
+                )
+            )
+            continue
+
+        is_measure = row["source_model"] == "hmt_scorecard_obr_database"
+        key_map = _MEASURE_CONDITIONS if is_measure else _EFO_CONDITIONS
+        unknown_c = set(conds_in) - set(key_map)
+        if unknown_c:
+            raise ValueError(f"uk_obr: unmapped conditions {sorted(unknown_c)}")
+
+        period, fy_norm = parse_fy(conds_in["fy"])
+        geography, geo_note = normalize_geography_uk(conds_in["geography"])
+        conditions = {
+            key_map[k]: v
+            for k, v in conds_in.items()
+            if v is not None and k not in ("fy", "geography")
+        }
+        conditions["fy"] = fy_norm
+        conditions["geography"] = geography
+        if geo_note:
+            conditions["geography_note"] = geo_note
+        if not is_measure:
+            # EFO table id is identity-bearing: the same head appears in
+            # 3.4 (accrued IT/NICs detail) and 3.8 (cash current
+            # receipts) with different values. So are the reconstructed
+            # 4.9 sections (the same subtotal labels recur in the
+            # welfare-cap and outside-cap blocks) and the EFO vintage
+            # (receipts staged from Mar-2026, expenditure from Nov-2025).
+            conditions["table"] = (row["source_table"] or "").split(":")[0]
+            if i in sections49:
+                conditions["section"] = sections49[i]
+            if i in parents411:
+                conditions["parent_line"] = parents411[i]
+            conditions["data_vintage"] = _efo_vintage(row)
+
+        metric_name = row.get("metric") or row.get("proposed_metric")
+        metric = _METRICS[metric_name]
+        hint = row.get("reform_hint")
+        if is_measure:
+            if not hint:
+                raise ValueError("uk_obr: measures row without reform_hint")
+            reform = policy_ref(
+                measure_slug("uk_obr_measure", conds_in["fiscal_event"], hint)
+            )
+            conditions["measure"] = hint
+            if component[i] > 1:
+                conditions["component_seq"] = str(component[i])
+        elif hint and metric is Metric.REVENUE_CHANGE:
+            # 3.17: latest re-estimates of previously announced personal
+            # tax measures — reform worlds keyed by title at the EFO
+            # re-estimate vintage.
+            reform = policy_ref(measure_slug("uk_obr_measure", "efo_march_2026", hint))
+            conditions["measure"] = hint
+        else:
+            if hint:
+                raise ValueError(f"uk_obr: unexpected reform_hint on {metric_name} row")
+            reform = BASELINE
+
+        unit = (
+            UnitConcept.PERSONS if metric is Metric.TAXPAYER_COUNT else UnitConcept.GBP
+        )
+        target = _consumed_target(row, sections49.get(i))
+        relationship = (
+            CalibrationRelationship.CONSUMED_AS_TARGET
+            if target
+            else CalibrationRelationship(row["calibration_relationship"])
+        )
+        publication = dict(row["publication"])
+        if row.get("source_table"):
+            publication.setdefault("table", row["source_table"])
+        if target:
+            publication["calibration_basis"] = _CONSUMED_BASIS.format(
+                target=target,
+                vintage=(
+                    _WELFARE_VINTAGE_CAVEAT if conditions.get("table") == "4.9" else ""
+                ),
+            )
+
+        scores.append(
+            ExternalScore(
+                source="obr",
+                source_model=row["source_model"],
+                metric=metric,
+                unit_concept=unit,
+                period=period,
+                time_basis=TimeBasis(row["time_basis"]),
+                value=row["value"],
+                conditions=conditions,
+                reform=reform,
+                calibration_relationship=relationship,
+                source_column=row.get("source_column"),
+                publication=publication,
+                value_kind="count" if unit is UnitConcept.PERSONS else "gbp",
+                status=row.get("status", "ok"),
+            )
+        )
+    return finish(scores, "uk_obr"), ledger
+
+
+def ingest(db_path: Path) -> dict:
+    scores, ledger = stage()
+    measures = sum(1 for s in scores if s.source_model == "hmt_scorecard_obr_database")
+    consumed = sum(
+        1
+        for s in scores
+        if s.calibration_relationship is CalibrationRelationship.CONSUMED_AS_TARGET
+    )
+    db = ScorecardDB(db_path)
+    n = db.upsert_scores(scores)
+    db.set_lane(
+        "obr-measures",
+        "ingested",
+        f"{measures} policy-measures-database claims (84 fiscal events "
+        "since 1970, reform-keyed per measure title, "
+        "positive_gain_to_exchequer verbatim)",
+        "2026-08-02",
+    )
+    db.set_lane(
+        "obr-welfare",
+        "ingested",
+        f"{n - measures} EFO Mar-2026 claims (receipts 3.4/3.8, welfare "
+        f"4.9/4.11, threshold analysis 3.17-3.19); {consumed} "
+        "consumed_as_target (exact pe-uk-data target lines, "
+        "targets/sources/obr.py); "
+        f"{len(ledger)} outturn rows routed to Ledger staging",
+        "2026-08-02",
+    )
+    db.close()
+    return {"scores": n, "ledger": len(ledger), "consumed": consumed}
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    import sys
+
+    out = Path(sys.argv[1] if len(sys.argv) > 1 else "data/scorecard.db")
+    print(json.dumps(ingest(out), indent=1))
diff --git a/scorecard_db/ingest_uk_rf.py b/scorecard_db/ingest_uk_rf.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..8b2f0e0
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scorecard_db/ingest_uk_rf.py
@@ -0,0 +1,287 @@
+"""Ingest the Resolution Foundation staged claims (2026-08-02 UK harvest).
+
+71 rows, the third UK microsim lineage (IPPR Tax Benefit Model on
+FRS/HBAI 2023-24): Living Standards Outlook 2026 income-growth and
+poverty projections (incl. the −420k-children two-child-limit leg of
+the pentagon), the Stairway-to-headroom Budget-2025 decile block, the
+April-2026 uprating parameter set (pure policyengine-uk parameter
+checks — the campaign's uprating_check joins here), and UC-rebalancing
+analysis.
+
+Mapping notes:
+- Staged metric names map onto the shared vocabulary; where a staged
+  name is absorbed into a broader Metric, conditions["source_metric"]
+  keeps the original name (traceability + collision-proofing).
+- Rows RF flags as citations of government figures (HMT scorecard, DWP
+  IA) keep note verbatim in publication — they are RF's published
+  citations, cross-checkable against the first-hand uk_hmt lane.
+- The single inflation-rate-gap row (energy-price-cap scenario, a price
+  -index claim with no tax/benefit content) is deliberately dropped and
+  tallied.
+- reform_hint rows become policy_ref worlds (uk_rf:<slug>); several
+  hints carry the RF-verified policyengine-uk parameter mapping in the
+  hint text verbatim.
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import json
+from pathlib import Path
+
+from .db import ScorecardDB
+from .harvest import finish, policy_ref
+from .models import (
+    BASELINE,
+    CalibrationRelationship,
+    ExternalScore,
+    Metric,
+    TimeBasis,
+    UnitConcept,
+)
+from .uk import (
+    load_staged_uk,
+    normalize_geography_uk,
+    parse_fy,
+    parse_fy_window,
+    slugify,
+    uk_value_kind,
+)
+
+_KNOWN_FIELDS = frozenset(
+    {
+        "source",
+        "metric",
+        "proposed_metric",
+        "unit_concept",
+        "proposed_unit",
+        "value",
+        "value_raw",
+        "value_kind",
+        "note",
+        "local_artifact",
+        "attribution",
+        "period",
+        "time_basis",
+        "conditions",
+        "reform_hint",
+        "calibration_relationship",
+        "source_model",
+        "source_column",
+        "publication",
+        "status",
+    }
+)
+
+_CONDITION_KEYS = {
+    "geography": "geography",
+    "fy": "fy",
+    "income_concept": "income_concept",
+    "equivalisation": "equivalisation",
+    "unit_population": "unit_population",
+    "scenario": "scenario",
+    "growth_window": "growth_window",
+    "benefit": "program",
+    "income_group": "income_group",
+    "poverty_line": "poverty_line",
+    "impact_year": "impact_year",
+    "measure_set": "measure_set",
+    "income_measure": "income_measure",
+    "price_base": "price_base",
+    "uprating_event": "uprating_event",
+    "component": "component",
+    "change_window": "change_window",
+    "measure": "measure_note",
+    "percentile": "percentile",
+}
+
+# staged metric -> (Metric, unit, keep source_metric condition?)
+_METRICS = {
+    "poverty_rate": (Metric.POVERTY_RATE, UnitConcept.SHARE, False),
+    "poverty_rate_change": (
+        Metric.POVERTY_RATE_CHANGE,
+        UnitConcept.SHARE,
+        False,
+    ),
+    "poverty_count": (
+        Metric.POVERTY_COUNT,
+        UnitConcept.CHILDREN_UNDER_18,
+        False,
+    ),
+    "poverty_count_change": (
+        Metric.POVERTY_COUNT_CHANGE,
+        UnitConcept.CHILDREN_UNDER_18,
+        False,
+    ),
+    "revenue_change": (Metric.REVENUE_CHANGE, UnitConcept.GBP, False),
+    "real_income_growth_pct": (
+        Metric.REAL_INCOME_GROWTH,
+        UnitConcept.SHARE,
+        False,
+    ),
+    "real_income_growth_pct_pa": (
+        Metric.REAL_INCOME_GROWTH,
+        UnitConcept.SHARE,
+        True,
+    ),
+    "benefit_uprating_pct": (
+        Metric.BENEFIT_UPRATING,
+        UnitConcept.SHARE,
+        False,
+    ),
+    "avg_income_change": (
+        Metric.AVG_CHANGE_HOUSEHOLD_NET_INCOME,
+        UnitConcept.GBP_PER_HOUSEHOLD,
+        False,
+    ),
+    "avg_gain_per_benefiting_family": (
+        Metric.AVG_CHANGE_HOUSEHOLD_NET_INCOME,
+        UnitConcept.GBP_PER_FAMILY,
+        True,
+    ),
+    "avg_gain_per_unit": (
+        Metric.AVG_CHANGE_HOUSEHOLD_NET_INCOME,
+        UnitConcept.GBP_PER_FAMILY,
+        True,
+    ),
+    "reform_fiscal_cost": (
+        Metric.EXCHEQUER_IMPACT,
+        UnitConcept.GBP,
+        True,
+    ),
+    "share_gaining": (Metric.SHARE_GAINING, UnitConcept.SHARE, False),
+    "share_losing": (Metric.SHARE_LOSING, UnitConcept.SHARE, False),
+    "benefiting_family_count": (
+        Metric.FAMILIES_AFFECTED_COUNT,
+        UnitConcept.FAMILIES,
+        True,
+    ),
+    "benefit_rate_weekly": (
+        Metric.POLICY_PARAMETER_LEVEL,
+        UnitConcept.GBP_PER_WEEK,
+        True,
+    ),
+    "benefit_rate_gap_weekly": (
+        Metric.POLICY_PARAMETER_LEVEL,
+        UnitConcept.GBP_PER_WEEK,
+        True,
+    ),
+    "real_value_change_pct": (
+        Metric.POLICY_PARAMETER_LEVEL,
+        UnitConcept.SHARE,
+        True,
+    ),
+}
+
+DROPPED_METRICS = frozenset({"inflation_rate_gap_pp"})
+
+
+def stage() -> tuple[list[ExternalScore], list[dict], int]:
+    scores: list[ExternalScore] = []
+    dropped = 0
+    for row in load_staged_uk("uk_resolution_foundation"):
+        unknown = set(row) - _KNOWN_FIELDS
+        if unknown:
+            raise ValueError(f"uk_rf: unhandled fields {sorted(unknown)}")
+        metric_name = row.get("metric") or row["proposed_metric"]
+        if metric_name in DROPPED_METRICS:
+            dropped += 1
+            continue
+        conds_in = dict(row["conditions"])
+        unknown_c = set(conds_in) - set(_CONDITION_KEYS)
+        if unknown_c:
+            raise ValueError(f"uk_rf: unmapped conditions {sorted(unknown_c)}")
+
+        geography, geo_note = normalize_geography_uk(conds_in.pop("geography"))
+        conditions = {
+            _CONDITION_KEYS[k]: v
+            for k, v in conds_in.items()
+            if v is not None and k != "fy"
+        }
+        conditions["geography"] = geography
+        if geo_note:
+            conditions["geography_note"] = geo_note
+
+        period_start = period_end = None
+        fy_label = conds_in["fy"]
+        if "to" in fy_label:
+            period_start, period_end, fy_norm = parse_fy_window(fy_label)
+            period = period_end
+            conditions["fy"] = fy_norm
+            conditions["window_kind"] = "total"
+        else:
+            period, fy_norm = parse_fy(fy_label)
+            conditions["fy"] = fy_norm
+
+        metric, unit, keep_name = _METRICS[metric_name]
+        if keep_name:
+            conditions["source_metric"] = metric_name
+        if row.get("attribution"):
+            # RF quoting a government figure is a different claim than
+            # RF's own model estimate of the same statistic (the −420k
+            # RF vs −450k govt two-child pair) — identity-bearing.
+            conditions["attribution"] = row["attribution"]
+
+        hint = row.get("reform_hint")
+        if hint:
+            reform = policy_ref(f"uk_rf:{slugify(hint)}")
+            conditions["measure"] = hint
+        else:
+            reform = BASELINE
+
+        publication = dict(row["publication"])
+        for note in ("note", "local_artifact"):
+            if row.get(note):
+                publication[note] = row[note]
+
+        scores.append(
+            ExternalScore(
+                source="resolution_foundation",
+                source_model=row["source_model"],
+                metric=metric,
+                unit_concept=unit,
+                period=period,
+                time_basis=TimeBasis(row["time_basis"]),
+                value=row["value"],
+                conditions=conditions,
+                reform=reform,
+                calibration_relationship=CalibrationRelationship(
+                    row["calibration_relationship"]
+                ),
+                source_column=row.get("source_column"),
+                publication=publication,
+                value_kind=uk_value_kind(row.get("value_kind"), unit.value),
+                status=row.get("status", "ok"),
+                period_start=period_start,
+                period_end=period_end,
+            )
+        )
+    return finish(scores, "uk_rf"), [], dropped
+
+
+def ingest(db_path: Path) -> dict:
+    scores, _, dropped = stage()
+    reform_rows = sum(1 for s in scores if s.reform is not BASELINE)
+    uprating = sum(1 for s in scores if s.metric is Metric.BENEFIT_UPRATING)
+    db = ScorecardDB(db_path)
+    n = db.upsert_scores(scores)
+    db.set_lane(
+        "rf-outlook",
+        "ingested",
+        f"{n} Resolution Foundation claims (IPPR Tax Benefit Model on "
+        "FRS/HBAI 2023-24): LSO 2026 poverty projections incl. the −420k "
+        "two-child pentagon leg, Budget-2025 decile block, April-2026 "
+        f"uprating set ({uprating} parameter-check rows — campaign "
+        f"uprating_check joins here); {reform_rows} reform-keyed rows; "
+        f"{dropped} price-index-only row dropped (out of tax/benefit "
+        "scope, tallied)",
+        "2026-08-02",
+    )
+    db.close()
+    return {"scores": n, "reform_rows": reform_rows, "dropped": dropped}
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    import sys
+
+    out = Path(sys.argv[1] if len(sys.argv) > 1 else "data/scorecard.db")
+    print(json.dumps(ingest(out), indent=1))
diff --git a/scorecard_db/ingest_uk_ukmod_jrf.py b/scorecard_db/ingest_uk_ukmod_jrf.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..977444a
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scorecard_db/ingest_uk_ukmod_jrf.py
@@ -0,0 +1,338 @@
+"""Ingest the UKMOD + JRF staged claims (2026-08-02 UK harvest).
+
+Two sources share one staging file (and this adapter); each row's
+staged ``source`` (ukmod | jrf) is preserved.
+
+**UKMOD** (CeMPA):
+- Country Report 2023-2030 Section-4 validation block: caseloads,
+  expenditure, tax revenue, distribution (4.7) and poverty (4.8) with
+  UKMOD-simulated / official-estimate / input-data / HBAI columns side
+  by side — conditions["series"] distinguishes sides. Official cells
+  are second-hand DWP/HMRC/OBR citations and deliberately stay
+  scorecard-side under source ukmod (the block's value IS the
+  side-by-side; first-hand admin outturns live in the Ledger via the
+  DWP/HMRC lanes, not here).
+- CeMPA WP 3/26 Autumn-Budget-2025 package assessment: scenario
+  base/reform/change rows — the package is one policy_ref world
+  (uk_autumn_budget_2025_package_cempa) scored against pre-package
+  current law at announcement.
+
+**JRF**: UK Poverty 2026 workbook series (unrounded headline AHC
+poverty, persistent poverty, thresholds, medians) — permanent poverty
+holdouts. The 88 MIS weekly-budget cells are deliberately DROPPED
+(tallied): MIS budget standards are focus-group budgets, not
+tax/benefit-model outputs PE can check; they stay recoverable in the
+vendored staging.
+
+Gotchas encoded here: income_concept is load-bearing (UKMOD validation
+poverty = BHC, JRF headline = AHC); staged value_kind "currency_gbp"
+normalizes to gbp; JRF's basis weekly|annual is an AMOUNT basis and is
+remapped to conditions["amount_basis"] (basis keeps its UK
+outturn/forecast semantics); 3-year-average persistent-poverty windows
+become period_start/period_end with window_kind=annual_average.
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import json
+from pathlib import Path
+
+from .db import ScorecardDB
+from .harvest import finish, merge_republications, policy_ref
+from .models import (
+    BASELINE,
+    CalibrationRelationship,
+    ExternalScore,
+    Metric,
+    TimeBasis,
+    UnitConcept,
+)
+from .uk import (
+    load_staged_uk,
+    normalize_geography_uk,
+    parse_fy,
+    parse_fy_window,
+    uk_value_kind,
+)
+
+_KNOWN_FIELDS = frozenset(
+    {
+        "source",
+        "metric",
+        "proposed_metric",
+        "unit_concept",
+        "proposed_unit",
+        "value",
+        "value_raw",
+        "value_kind",
+        "normalization",
+        "parse_confidence",
+        "period",
+        "time_basis",
+        "conditions",
+        "reform",
+        "reform_hint",
+        "calibration_relationship",
+        "source_model",
+        "source_column",
+        "source_table",
+        "publication",
+        "status",
+        "official_sources_note",
+    }
+)
+
+_CONDITION_KEYS = {
+    "geography": "geography",
+    "fy": "fy",
+    "series": "series",
+    "program": "program",
+    "forecast_note": None,  # table-level note -> publication
+    "income_concept": "income_concept",
+    "ukmod_variable": "ukmod_variable",
+    "subgroup": "subgroup",
+    "count_unit": "count_unit",
+    "poverty_line": "poverty_line",
+    "scenario": "scenario",
+    "income_definition": "income_definition",
+    "equivalisation": "equivalisation",
+    "unit_of_analysis": "unit_of_analysis",
+    "coverage_note": None,  # series-level note -> publication
+    "quintile": "quintile",
+    "household_type": "household_type",
+    "budget_component": "budget_component",
+    "priced": "priced",
+    "poverty_line_type": "poverty_line_type",
+    "family_type": "family_type",
+    "threshold": "threshold",
+    "income_concept_note": None,  # -> publication
+    "basis": "amount_basis",  # JRF weekly|annual — NOT outturn/forecast
+    "poverty_depth": "poverty_depth",
+    "measure": "poverty_duration_measure",
+    "period_window": None,  # handled -> period_start/period_end
+    "subgroup_axis": "subgroup_axis",
+    "child_definition": "child_definition",
+}
+_PUBLICATION_NOTES = ("forecast_note", "coverage_note", "income_concept_note")
+
+# staged metric -> (Metric, unit chooser key)
+_METRICS = {
+    "poverty_rate": Metric.POVERTY_RATE,
+    "poverty_count": Metric.POVERTY_COUNT,
+    "poverty_count_change": Metric.POVERTY_COUNT_CHANGE,
+    "persistent_poverty_rate": Metric.PERSISTENT_POVERTY_RATE,
+    "benefit_cost": Metric.BENEFIT_COST,
+    "caseload": Metric.CASELOAD,
+    "revenue_change": Metric.REVENUE_CHANGE,
+    "tax_revenue": Metric.REVENUE_LEVEL,
+    "taxpayer_count": Metric.TAXPAYER_COUNT,
+    "government_revenue": Metric.REVENUE_LEVEL,
+    "government_expenditure": Metric.EXPENDITURE_LEVEL,
+    "expenditure_change": Metric.EXPENDITURE_CHANGE,
+    "net_fiscal_impact": Metric.EXCHEQUER_IMPACT,
+    "net_fiscal_impact_per_capita": Metric.EXCHEQUER_IMPACT,
+    "median_equivalised_disposable_income": Metric.MEDIAN_INCOME,
+    "mean_equivalised_disposable_income": Metric.MEAN_INCOME,
+    "median_income": Metric.MEDIAN_INCOME,
+    "income_share": Metric.INCOME_SHARE,
+    "gini_coefficient": Metric.GINI_COEFFICIENT,
+    "gini_coefficient_change": Metric.GINI_COEFFICIENT_CHANGE,
+    "s80_s20_ratio": Metric.S80_S20_RATIO,
+    "s80_s20_ratio_change": Metric.S80_S20_RATIO_CHANGE,
+    "poverty_threshold": Metric.POVERTY_THRESHOLD,
+}
+
+_UNIT_BY_PROPOSED = {
+    "gbp": UnitConcept.GBP,
+    "gbp_per_week": UnitConcept.GBP_PER_WEEK,
+    "gbp_per_month": UnitConcept.GBP_PER_MONTH,
+    "gbp_per_year": UnitConcept.GBP_PER_YEAR,
+    "gbp_per_person": UnitConcept.GBP_PER_PERSON,
+    "gini_0_1": UnitConcept.INDEX_0_1,
+    "gini_points_0_100": UnitConcept.INDEX_POINTS_0_100,
+    "ratio": UnitConcept.RATIO,
+}
+_UNIT_BY_STAGED = {
+    "persons": UnitConcept.PERSONS,
+    "families": UnitConcept.FAMILIES,
+    "households": UnitConcept.HOUSEHOLDS,
+}
+
+AB2025_PACKAGE = policy_ref("uk_autumn_budget_2025_package_cempa")
+
+DROPPED_METRICS = frozenset({"minimum_income_standard_budget"})
+
+
+def _unit_for(row: dict, metric: Metric) -> UnitConcept:
+    if metric in (
+        Metric.POVERTY_RATE,
+        Metric.PERSISTENT_POVERTY_RATE,
+        Metric.INCOME_SHARE,
+    ):
+        return UnitConcept.SHARE
+    if row.get("unit_concept"):
+        return _UNIT_BY_STAGED[row["unit_concept"]]
+    proposed = row.get("proposed_unit")
+    if proposed:
+        unit = _UNIT_BY_PROPOSED[proposed]
+        # JRF threshold/median tables publish bare-gbp cells whose
+        # weekly/annual basis rides the staged basis flag.
+        if unit is UnitConcept.GBP and row["conditions"].get("basis"):
+            return {
+                "weekly": UnitConcept.GBP_PER_WEEK,
+                "annual": UnitConcept.GBP_PER_YEAR,
+            }[row["conditions"]["basis"]]
+        return unit
+    if row.get("value_kind") in ("currency_gbp", "gbp"):
+        return UnitConcept.GBP
+    raise ValueError(f"uk_ukmod_jrf: no unit for row {row['source_column']!r}")
+
+
+def stage() -> tuple[list[ExternalScore], list[dict], int]:
+    scores: list[ExternalScore] = []
+    dropped = 0
+    for row in load_staged_uk("uk_ukmod_jrf"):
+        unknown = set(row) - _KNOWN_FIELDS
+        if unknown:
+            raise ValueError(f"uk_ukmod_jrf: unhandled fields {sorted(unknown)}")
+        metric_name = row.get("metric") or row["proposed_metric"]
+        if metric_name in DROPPED_METRICS:
+            dropped += 1
+            continue
+        conds_in = dict(row["conditions"])
+        unknown_c = set(conds_in) - set(_CONDITION_KEYS)
+        if unknown_c:
+            raise ValueError(f"uk_ukmod_jrf: unmapped conditions {sorted(unknown_c)}")
+
+        geography, geo_note = normalize_geography_uk(conds_in.pop("geography"))
+        conditions = {}
+        for k, v in conds_in.items():
+            target = _CONDITION_KEYS[k]
+            if target and v is not None and k != "fy":
+                conditions[target] = v
+        conditions["geography"] = geography
+        if geo_note:
+            conditions["geography_note"] = geo_note
+
+        period_start = period_end = None
+        window_label = conds_in.get("period_window")
+        if window_label:
+            period_start, period_end, fy_norm = parse_fy_window(
+                window_label.split(" (")[0]
+            )
+            period = period_end
+            conditions["fy"] = fy_norm
+            conditions["window_kind"] = "annual_average"
+        else:
+            period, fy_norm = parse_fy(conds_in["fy"])
+            conditions["fy"] = fy_norm
+
+        scenario = conds_in.get("scenario")
+        if row.get("reform") is not None:
+            if row["reform"] != {"framework": "baseline"}:
+                raise ValueError(f"uk_ukmod_jrf: unexpected reform {row['reform']}")
+            if scenario is not None:
+                raise ValueError("uk_ukmod_jrf: baseline-reform row carries scenario")
+            reform = BASELINE
+        else:
+            # CeMPA WP 3/26 package block: scenario base/reform/change.
+            if scenario == "baseline":
+                reform = BASELINE
+            elif scenario in ("reform", "reform_minus_baseline"):
+                reform = AB2025_PACKAGE
+                conditions["measure"] = row["reform_hint"]
+            else:
+                raise ValueError(f"uk_ukmod_jrf: reform-block scenario {scenario!r}")
+
+        metric = _METRICS[metric_name]
+        unit = _unit_for(row, metric)
+        if metric_name == "net_fiscal_impact_per_capita":
+            unit = UnitConcept.GBP_PER_PERSON
+
+        publication = dict(row["publication"])
+        if row.get("source_table"):
+            publication.setdefault("table", row["source_table"])
+        if row.get("normalization"):
+            publication["normalization"] = row["normalization"]
+        if row.get("official_sources_note"):
+            publication["official_sources_note"] = row["official_sources_note"]
+        for k in _PUBLICATION_NOTES:
+            if conds_in.get(k):
+                publication[k] = conds_in[k]
+
+        scores.append(
+            ExternalScore(
+                source=row["source"],
+                source_model=row.get("source_model"),
+                metric=metric,
+                unit_concept=unit,
+                period=period,
+                time_basis=TimeBasis(row["time_basis"]),
+                value=row["value"],
+                conditions=conditions,
+                reform=reform,
+                calibration_relationship=CalibrationRelationship(
+                    row["calibration_relationship"]
+                ),
+                source_column=row.get("source_column"),
+                publication=publication,
+                value_kind=uk_value_kind(row.get("value_kind"), unit.value),
+                status=row.get("status", "ok"),
+                period_start=period_start,
+                period_end=period_end,
+            )
+        )
+
+    # JRF republishes the same statistic across workbook sheets (rounded
+    # overview vs unrounded headline series): one claim, two artifacts —
+    # keep the higher-precision cell, require rounding-consistency, and
+    # record the twin under publication["also_published"].
+    def _decimals(s: ExternalScore) -> int:
+        text = repr(s.value)
+        return len(text.split(".")[1]) if "." in text else 0
+
+    scores = merge_republications(
+        scores,
+        "uk_ukmod_jrf",
+        precision=_decimals,
+        tolerance=lambda coarse: 0.5 * 10 ** -_decimals(coarse) + 1e-12,
+    )
+    return finish(scores, "uk_ukmod_jrf"), [], dropped
+
+
+def ingest(db_path: Path) -> dict:
+    scores, _, dropped = stage()
+    ukmod = sum(1 for s in scores if s.source == "ukmod")
+    jrf = sum(1 for s in scores if s.source == "jrf")
+    reform_rows = sum(1 for s in scores if s.reform is AB2025_PACKAGE)
+    db = ScorecardDB(db_path)
+    n = db.upsert_scores(scores)
+    db.set_lane(
+        "ukmod-stats",
+        "ingested",
+        f"{ukmod} UKMOD claims — Country Report 2023-2030 validation "
+        "block (simulated/official/input-data/HBAI series side by side; "
+        "take-up priors frozen since 2021 per their own §4.3 warning) + "
+        f"CeMPA 3/26 AB2025 package assessment ({reform_rows} "
+        f"reform-keyed rows); {jrf} JRF claims (unrounded AHC headline "
+        f"series, persistent poverty, MIS-adjacent thresholds); {dropped} "
+        "MIS weekly-budget cells deliberately dropped (focus-group budget "
+        "standards, not model-checkable — recoverable in vendored "
+        "staging)",
+        "2026-08-02",
+    )
+    db.close()
+    return {
+        "scores": n,
+        "ukmod": ukmod,
+        "jrf": jrf,
+        "reform_rows": reform_rows,
+        "dropped_mis": dropped,
+    }
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    import sys
+
+    out = Path(sys.argv[1] if len(sys.argv) > 1 else "data/scorecard.db")
+    print(json.dumps(ingest(out), indent=1))
diff --git a/scorecard_db/ingest_urban.py b/scorecard_db/ingest_urban.py
index 73b1117..9f18da0 100644
--- a/scorecard_db/ingest_urban.py
+++ b/scorecard_db/ingest_urban.py
@@ -189,6 +189,7 @@ def pe_results_from_comparison(
                 pe_construction=r.get("concept_note", ""),
                 run_id=meta.get("run_id", ""),
                 computed_at=meta.get("computed_at", ""),
+                baseline_key=BASELINE.baseline_key(),
             )
         )
     return results
diff --git a/scorecard_db/models.py b/scorecard_db/models.py
index 445276b..d2261b4 100644
--- a/scorecard_db/models.py
+++ b/scorecard_db/models.py
@@ -70,6 +70,55 @@ class Metric(str, Enum):
     MAXIMUM_MONTHLY_BENEFIT = "maximum_monthly_benefit"
     AVERAGE_WEEKLY_BENEFIT = "average_weekly_benefit"
     FIRST_PAYMENT_COUNT = "first_payment_count"
+    # 2026-08-02 UK-harvest extensions (COLLATION UK worklist item 1).
+    # exchequer_impact is deliberately NOT revenue_change: HMT/OBR scorecard
+    # lines mix Tax and Spend heads (classification is by largest impact),
+    # so the metric asserts only "net impact on the public finances";
+    # conditions carry head / tax_head / spending_head verbatim.
+    EXCHEQUER_IMPACT = "exchequer_impact"
+    # DWP income-related-benefit take-up: the £ entitled but unclaimed
+    # (with bounds in conditions["bound"]).
+    UNCLAIMED_EXPENDITURE = "unclaimed_expenditure"
+    # Level (not change) families shared by OBR EFO receipts tables and
+    # UKMOD's validation block (their "tax_revenue" simulated receipts).
+    REVENUE_LEVEL = "revenue_level"
+    EXPENDITURE_LEVEL = "expenditure_level"
+    EXPENDITURE_CHANGE = "expenditure_change"
+    # Statutory/administrative parameter values by year (OBR EFO 3.19
+    # threshold walks, RF April-2026 uprating set) — pure parameter checks.
+    POLICY_PARAMETER_LEVEL = "policy_parameter_level"
+    BENEFIT_UPRATING = "benefit_uprating"  # annual uprating rate applied
+    TAXPAYER_COUNT = "taxpayer_count"
+    TAXPAYER_COUNT_CHANGE = "taxpayer_count_change"
+    # HMRC SPI percentile points: income level at percentile p
+    # (conditions: percentile, income_concept).
+    INCOME_PERCENTILE_POINT = "income_percentile_point"
+    AVERAGE_TAX_RATE = "average_tax_rate"
+    AVERAGE_TAX_AMOUNT = "average_tax_amount"
+    # Distribution levels (UKMOD 4.7, HMT annex 2.C). Median-vs-mean is
+    # baked into the metric (level statistics, unlike the avg_* change
+    # family); the income concept rides conditions["income_concept"].
+    MEDIAN_INCOME = "median_income"
+    MEAN_INCOME = "mean_income"
+    INCOME_SHARE = "income_share"
+    GINI_COEFFICIENT = "gini_coefficient"
+    GINI_COEFFICIENT_CHANGE = "gini_coefficient_change"
+    S80_S20_RATIO = "s80_s20_ratio"
+    S80_S20_RATIO_CHANGE = "s80_s20_ratio_change"
+    POVERTY_THRESHOLD = "poverty_threshold"
+    # JRF headline series PE cannot produce without longitudinal data;
+    # staged as claims, results stay not_computed until that capability
+    # exists (descriptive register: capability statement, not a defect).
+    PERSISTENT_POVERTY_RATE = "persistent_poverty_rate"
+    # Reform-distribution family (IFS options tables, RF decile blocks).
+    AVG_CHANGE_HOUSEHOLD_NET_INCOME = "avg_change_household_net_income"
+    SHARE_GAINING = "share_gaining"
+    SHARE_LOSING = "share_losing"
+    SHARE_OF_SPENDING_TO_GROUP = "share_of_spending_to_group"
+    COST_PER_CHILD_LIFTED_OUT_OF_POVERTY = "cost_per_child_lifted_out_of_poverty"
+    FAMILIES_AFFECTED_COUNT = "families_affected_count"
+    # RF Living Standards Outlook household income growth projections.
+    REAL_INCOME_GROWTH = "real_income_growth"
 
 
 class UnitConcept(str, Enum):
@@ -94,6 +143,27 @@ class UnitConcept(str, Enum):
     # pct_change_after_tax_income / share_with_tax_cut row to PERCENT;
     # SHARE stays the fraction convention for rates (poverty, take-up).
     PERCENT = "percent"
+    # 2026-08-02 UK-harvest extensions: GBP aggregates and the per-period /
+    # per-unit statistics the UK sources publish (MIS weekly budgets, RF
+    # weekly benefit rates, IFS per-year averages). The per-unit split is
+    # load-bearing for the same reason as USD_PER_TAX_UNIT: averages must
+    # never sum like aggregates, and the denominator population differs.
+    GBP = "gbp"
+    GBP_PER_WEEK = "gbp_per_week"
+    GBP_PER_MONTH = "gbp_per_month"
+    GBP_PER_YEAR = "gbp_per_year"
+    GBP_PER_HOUSEHOLD = "gbp_per_household"
+    GBP_PER_FAMILY = "gbp_per_family"
+    GBP_PER_PERSON = "gbp_per_person"
+    # Rate-change claims published in percentage points (IFS poverty-rate
+    # changes). Distinct from PERCENT (a level on the 0–100 scale) so a
+    # query cannot mistake a change for a level.
+    PERCENTAGE_POINTS = "percentage_points"
+    # Inequality statistics: S80/S20 quintile-share ratios, Gini on the
+    # 0–1 scale, and Gini differences in index points × 100 (UKMOD 4.7).
+    RATIO = "ratio"
+    INDEX_0_1 = "index_0_1"
+    INDEX_POINTS_0_100 = "index_points_0_100"
 
 
 # Standardized conditions vocabulary (COLLATION worklist item 4).
@@ -112,6 +182,29 @@ class UnitConcept(str, Enum):
 # window_kind       "total" | "annual_average" on period-range claims
 # month             "YYYY-MM" for monthly series
 # data_vintage      dataset base when it is not the obvious current one
+#
+# UK additions (2026-08-02 UK harvest; COLLATION UK worklist items 2-3):
+# fy                normalized fiscal-year label "2026-27" (Apr–Mar). The
+#                   integer period is ALWAYS the FY start year (pe-uk-data
+#                   convention) — adapters re-derive it from this label, so
+#                   end-year staging conventions cannot leak in.
+# basis             source's own designation: "outturn" | "forecast" |
+#                   "projected" | "provisional" | "unstated". Admin outturn
+#                   rows never reach external_scores (ledger routing rule).
+# income_concept    UK distribution rows: "BHC" | "AHC" (load-bearing on
+#                   every HBAI-family statistic), alongside the US values.
+# equivalisation    e.g. "modified_oecd" — load-bearing with income_concept.
+# poverty_measure   "relative" | "absolute" (+ poverty_line, e.g.
+#                   "60pct_median"; poverty_line_anchor for absolute lines)
+# fiscal_event      "autumn_budget_2024" | "budget_2025" | … — the event a
+#                   costing/measure belongs to
+# measure           verbatim measure title on scored fiscal-event lines
+#                   (mirrors the policy_ref slug, which hashes this title)
+# series            UKMOD validation-block column: "ukmod" |
+#                   "official_estimate" | "input_data" | "hbai"
+# edition           publication edition when two editions of the same
+#                   statistic are staged (HBAI FYE2025 vs admin-linked)
+# bound             "lower" | "central" | "upper" on estimate ranges
 STANDARD_CONDITIONS = frozenset(
     {
         "geography",
@@ -127,6 +220,16 @@ class UnitConcept(str, Enum):
         "window_kind",
         "month",
         "data_vintage",
+        "fy",
+        "basis",
+        "equivalisation",
+        "poverty_measure",
+        "poverty_line",
+        "fiscal_event",
+        "measure",
+        "series",
+        "edition",
+        "bound",
     }
 )
 
@@ -153,17 +256,47 @@ class ComparisonStatus(str, Enum):
 
 
 class DiagnosisClass(str, Enum):
+    """Adjudication classes under the descriptive register (issue #9,
+    Max 2026-08-02): the Scorecard is descriptive by default. PE_GAP and
+    EXTERNAL_ISSUE are normative and therefore GATED — they require a
+    citable known issue in action_link (a GitHub issue, published erratum,
+    internal contradiction, or tracked correction); divergence alone never
+    qualifies. METHODOLOGICAL_DIFFERENCE is strictly descriptive: the
+    models differ because of documented choices on both sides, stated,
+    sourced, and left there — no convergence or defended-departure
+    framing in either direction."""
+
     PE_GAP = "pe_gap"
     EXTERNAL_ISSUE = "external_issue"
     CONCEPT_MISMATCH = "concept_mismatch"
+    METHODOLOGICAL_DIFFERENCE = "methodological_difference"
     VINTAGE = "vintage"
     UNDIAGNOSED = "undiagnosed"
 
 
+# Diagnosis classes that may only be assigned with a citable known issue.
+GATED_DIAGNOSIS_CLASSES = frozenset(
+    {DiagnosisClass.PE_GAP, DiagnosisClass.EXTERNAL_ISSUE}
+)
+
+
 def _canonical(obj: Any) -> str:
     return json.dumps(obj, sort_keys=True, separators=(",", ":"))
 
 
+# The null baseline descriptor: current law at the source's scoring date.
+CURRENT_LAW_DESCRIPTOR = {"policy": "current_law"}
+
+
+def baseline_key(descriptor: dict) -> str:
+    """Stable key over a baseline descriptor dict (issue #13). The same
+    descriptor shape ReformRef.baseline carries; {"policy": "current_law"}
+    keys the null baseline."""
+    if not (isinstance(descriptor, dict) and descriptor.get("policy")):
+        raise ValueError(f"baseline descriptor needs a 'policy' slug: {descriptor!r}")
+    return hashlib.sha256(_canonical(descriptor).encode()).hexdigest()[:16]
+
+
 @dataclass(frozen=True)
 class ReformRef:
     """The policy world a claim scores.
@@ -240,6 +373,20 @@ def key(self) -> str:
             ).encode()
         ).hexdigest()[:16]
 
+    def baseline_descriptor(self) -> dict:
+        """The baseline world this reform is scored against, as a
+        descriptor dict. Absent baseline means current law — the JCT /
+        HMT-costing convention: scored against the law in force at
+        publication (the announcement vintage rides in conditions such as
+        fiscal_event / data_vintage, not in the baseline world)."""
+        return self.baseline if self.baseline is not None else CURRENT_LAW_DESCRIPTOR
+
+    def baseline_key(self) -> str:
+        """First-class baseline identity (issue #13): a stable hash of the
+        baseline descriptor, FK into the baselines registry. Additive
+        projection only — claim_id/key() hashing is unchanged."""
+        return baseline_key(self.baseline_descriptor())
+
     def to_json(self) -> str:
         return _canonical(
             {
@@ -335,7 +482,14 @@ def claim_id(self) -> str:
 
 @dataclass
 class PEResult:
-    """PolicyEngine's computation for a claim (history preserved per run)."""
+    """PolicyEngine's computation for a claim (history preserved per run).
+
+    baseline_key records the baseline world the run ACTUALLY executed
+    (issue #13 point 5) — e.g. the two-child-limit runs execute a
+    pre_ab2025 reinstated counterfactual as their baseline, not current
+    law. None on legacy rows only; new ingests must pass it, and the
+    comparisons view refuses to render plain agreement when it differs
+    from the claim's baseline."""
 
     claim_id: str
     computed_value: Optional[float]
@@ -346,6 +500,7 @@ class PEResult:
     run_id: str = ""
     computed_at: str = ""  # ISO timestamp, caller-supplied
     annotations: list = field(default_factory=list)
+    baseline_key: Optional[str] = None  # baseline actually executed
 
     def __post_init__(self):
         self.status = ComparisonStatus(self.status)
diff --git a/scorecard_db/relationships.py b/scorecard_db/relationships.py
index 0911845..f5f949d 100644
--- a/scorecard_db/relationships.py
+++ b/scorecard_db/relationships.py
@@ -104,6 +104,11 @@
         Metric.POVERTY_RATE,
         Metric.POVERTY_RATE_CHANGE,
         Metric.POVERTY_COUNT_CHANGE,
+        # 2026-08-02 UK ingest: poverty headcounts (HBAI counts, JRF
+        # series) and persistent poverty are the same modeled-outcome
+        # family — the doctrine is metric-shaped, not country-shaped.
+        Metric.POVERTY_COUNT,
+        Metric.PERSISTENT_POVERTY_RATE,
     }
 )
 PERMANENT_HOLDOUT_BASIS = (
diff --git a/scorecard_db/uk.py b/scorecard_db/uk.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..a728c02
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scorecard_db/uk.py
@@ -0,0 +1,249 @@
+"""Shared helpers for the 2026-08-02 UK-harvest adapters.
+
+Seven per-source adapters (ingest_uk_obr, ingest_uk_hmrc, ingest_uk_dwp,
+ingest_uk_hmt, ingest_uk_ukmod_jrf, ingest_uk_ifs, ingest_uk_rf) read the
+vendored staging under sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/<source>/ (gzipped —
+the OBR file alone is 36 MB plain) and map staged rows onto ExternalScore
+under the same contract as the US harvest (scorecard_db/harvest.py), plus
+three UK-specific rules:
+
+1. **Fiscal years.** UK FY runs Apr–Mar and the staging mixes START-year
+   ints (HMRC/OBR), END-year ints (DWP "FYE 2010"), and one defective
+   parse ("1999/00" → 1900). Adapters therefore RE-DERIVE period from the
+   verbatim fy label: period = FY START year (the pe-uk-data convention,
+   targets/sources/obr.py `_FY_COL_TO_YEAR`), and conditions["fy"] is the
+   normalized "2026-27" form.
+
+2. **Ledger routing (Max 2026-08-02).** Administrative caseload /
+   expenditure / receipts OUTTURN rows (DWP BECL outturns, HMRC outturn
+   statistics incl. provisional, OBR EFO outturn columns) are populace
+   CALIBRATION material: they go to the Ledger staging file
+   (data/ledger/uk_admin_outturns.jsonl), NEVER external_scores. Forecast
+   / projected rows are a model speaking and DO enter. Survey-outcome
+   statistics (HBAI poverty) are not admin outturn — they stay
+   scorecard-side as permanent holdouts.
+
+3. **Load-bearing conditions.** income_concept (BHC|AHC) + equivalisation
+   ride every distribution row; conditions["basis"] preserves the
+   source's own outturn/forecast designation on scorecard-side rows.
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import gzip
+import hashlib
+import json
+import re
+from pathlib import Path
+
+from .harvest import REPO
+from .models import ExternalScore
+
+UK_HARVEST = REPO / "sources" / "harvest-uk-2026-08-02"
+LEDGER_STAGING = REPO / "data" / "ledger" / "uk_admin_outturns.jsonl"
+
+
+def load_staged_uk(source: str) -> list[dict]:
+    path = UK_HARVEST / source / "claims_staged.jsonl.gz"
+    if not path.exists():
+        raise FileNotFoundError(f"staged claims missing: {path}")
+    with gzip.open(path, "rt") as f:
+        rows = [json.loads(line) for line in f if line.strip()]
+    if not rows:
+        raise ValueError(f"no staged rows in {path}")
+    return rows
+
+
+# -- fiscal years -------------------------------------------------------
+_FY = re.compile(r"^(?:FYE\s*(\d{4}))$|^(\d{4})\s*[-/–]\s*(\d{2}|\d{4})$")
+
+
+def parse_fy(label: str) -> tuple[int, str]:
+    """Verbatim UK fiscal-year label -> (start_year, normalized 'YYYY-YY').
+
+    'FYE 2010' (year ending Mar 2010) -> (2009, '2009-10');
+    '2026-27' / '2023/24' / '1999/00' / '1970-71' -> start-year keyed.
+    Non-contiguous spans are rejected — ranges go through parse_fy_window.
+    """
+    m = _FY.match(label.strip())
+    if not m:
+        raise ValueError(f"unparseable UK fiscal-year label: {label!r}")
+    if m.group(1):  # FYE yyyy = FY (yyyy-1)–yyyy
+        start = int(m.group(1)) - 1
+    else:
+        start = int(m.group(2))
+        end_raw = m.group(3)
+        end2 = int(end_raw) % 100
+        if end2 != (start + 1) % 100:
+            raise ValueError(f"non-contiguous fiscal-year label: {label!r}")
+    return start, f"{start}-{(start + 1) % 100:02d}"
+
+
+def parse_fy_window(label: str) -> tuple[int, int, str]:
+    """'2025-26 to 2029-30' / '2021/22-2023/24' -> (2025, 2029, normalized).
+
+    Returned bounds are FY START years for period_start/period_end."""
+    parts = re.split(r"\s+to\s+|(?<=\d)\s*[-–]\s*(?=\d{4})", label.strip())
+    if len(parts) != 2:
+        raise ValueError(f"unparseable fiscal-year window: {label!r}")
+    first, _ = parse_fy(parts[0])
+    last, _ = parse_fy(parts[1])
+    if last <= first:
+        raise ValueError(f"window end before start: {label!r}")
+    return (
+        first,
+        last,
+        f"{first}-{(first + 1) % 100:02d} to " + (f"{last}-{(last + 1) % 100:02d}"),
+    )
+
+
+# -- geography ----------------------------------------------------------
+# Canonical UK geography slugs (COLLATION UK conventions: labels verbatim
+# in spirit; normalized here only for case and note-stripping so
+# cross-source queries join). Verbatim long labels keep their note in
+# conditions["geography_note"] at the adapter's discretion.
+_GEO = {
+    "uk": "UK",
+    "united kingdom": "UK",
+    "gb": "GB",
+    "great britain": "GB",
+    "england": "england",
+    "scotland": "scotland",
+    "wales": "wales",
+    "northern ireland": "northern_ireland",
+    "england_wales": "england_wales",
+    "england and wales": "england_wales",
+    "uk excluding northern ireland": "UK_excl_NI",
+    "uk excluding scotland": "UK_excl_scotland",
+    "north east": "north_east",
+    "north west": "north_west",
+    "yorkshire and the humber": "yorkshire_and_the_humber",
+    "east midlands": "east_midlands",
+    "west midlands": "west_midlands",
+    "east of england": "east_of_england",
+    "east": "east_of_england",  # ONS region, abbreviated in UKMOD tables
+    "london": "london",
+    "south east": "south_east",
+    "south west": "south_west",
+}
+
+
+def normalize_geography_uk(geo: str) -> tuple[str, str | None]:
+    """Verbatim staged geography -> (canonical slug, note or None).
+
+    IFS embeds scope notes in the label ("UK excluding Northern Ireland
+    (note verbatim: …)"); the note is split off so the slug joins."""
+    raw = geo.strip()
+    note = None
+    m = re.match(r"^(.*?)\s*\((note verbatim:.*)\)$", raw, re.S)
+    if m:
+        raw, note = m.group(1).strip(), m.group(2)
+    slug = _GEO.get(raw.lower())
+    if slug is None:
+        raise ValueError(f"unmapped UK geography: {geo!r}")
+    return slug, note
+
+
+# -- reform slugs -------------------------------------------------------
+def slugify(text: str, max_len: int = 60) -> str:
+    """Deterministic readable slug for reform-hint titles. Truncated
+    slugs get a short hash of the full text so titles differing only in
+    their tail ("…by 1%" vs "…by 10%") can never share a world."""
+    s = re.sub(r"[^a-z0-9]+", "_", text.lower()).strip("_")
+    if len(s) <= max_len:
+        return s
+    digest = hashlib.sha256(text.strip().encode()).hexdigest()[:6]
+    return f"{s[:max_len].rstrip('_')}_{digest}"
+
+
+def measure_slug(prefix: str, event: str, title: str) -> str:
+    """Stable policy slug for a fiscal-event measure: readable prefix +
+    an 8-hex hash of the verbatim title (titles are long and near-
+    duplicated across events; the hash keeps identity exact while the
+    verbatim title rides conditions['measure'])."""
+    digest = hashlib.sha256(title.strip().encode()).hexdigest()[:8]
+    return f"{prefix}:{slugify(event, 24)}:{digest}"
+
+
+# -- ledger routing -----------------------------------------------------
+def ledger_fact_id(source: str, staged: dict, derived: dict | None) -> str:
+    """Deterministic pre-agreed fact id for the populace/Ledger lane."""
+    digest = hashlib.sha256(
+        json.dumps(
+            {"staged": staged, "derived": derived or {}},
+            sort_keys=True,
+            separators=(",", ":"),
+        ).encode()
+    ).hexdigest()[:20]
+    return f"uk:{source}:{digest}"
+
+
+def ledger_row(
+    source: str, staged: dict, reason: str, derived: dict | None = None
+) -> dict:
+    """Wrap a staged admin-outturn row for the Ledger staging file: the
+    verbatim staged row plus routing provenance. `derived` carries
+    adapter-reconstructed context the staging dropped (e.g. OBR 4.9
+    section — byte-identical subtotal cells recur across sections and
+    must not collapse to one fact). Scorecard rows that later reference
+    this fact do so via the fact id, never copies."""
+    out = {
+        "fact_id": ledger_fact_id(source, staged, derived),
+        "source": source,
+        "routed_because": reason,
+        "staged": staged,
+    }
+    if derived:
+        out["derived"] = derived
+    return out
+
+
+def write_ledger_staging(rows: list[dict], path: Path = LEDGER_STAGING) -> int:
+    """Write the Ledger handoff file (sorted by fact id — stable diffs)."""
+    path.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+    rows = sorted(rows, key=lambda r: r["fact_id"])
+    ids = [r["fact_id"] for r in rows]
+    dupes = {i for i in ids if ids.count(i) > 1}
+    if dupes:
+        raise ValueError(f"duplicate ledger fact ids: {sorted(dupes)[:5]}")
+    with path.open("w") as f:
+        for r in rows:
+            f.write(json.dumps(r, sort_keys=True) + "\n")
+    return len(rows)
+
+
+# -- misc ---------------------------------------------------------------
+def require_conditions(staged: dict, known: dict, source: str) -> dict:
+    """Map staged condition keys through `known` (staged key -> DB key),
+    failing loudly on anything unmapped. None-valued conditions are
+    dropped (absent means not applicable)."""
+    out = {}
+    for k, v in staged.items():
+        if k not in known:
+            raise ValueError(f"{source}: unmapped condition {k!r}")
+        if v is None:
+            continue
+        if not isinstance(v, str):
+            v = json.dumps(v)
+        out[known[k]] = v
+    return out
+
+
+def uk_value_kind(staged_kind: str | None, unit_value: str) -> str:
+    """Normalize staged value_kind ('currency_gbp'/'gbp'/'usd' drift) to
+    the DB convention: gbp for currency, else count/share as staged."""
+    if staged_kind in ("currency_gbp", "gbp", "usd"):
+        return "gbp"
+    if staged_kind in ("count", "share"):
+        return staged_kind
+    if staged_kind is None:
+        return "gbp" if unit_value.startswith("gbp") else "count"
+    raise ValueError(f"unmapped value_kind: {staged_kind!r}")
+
+
+def tally(scores: list[ExternalScore]) -> dict:
+    """Per-metric counts for lane details and runner stats."""
+    out: dict[str, int] = {}
+    for s in scores:
+        out[s.metric.value] = out.get(s.metric.value, 0) + 1
+    return out
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/SPM_NOTES.md b/sources/campaign-20260802/SPM_NOTES.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..135fdc5
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/SPM_NOTES.md
@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+# SPM level differences vs ASEC-anchored series — what is in hand
+
+Date: 2026-08-02. Register: descriptive (methodological_difference; issue #9
+ruling — Scorecard is descriptive by default).
+
+## The difference
+
+Populace calculates benefits and recalibrates where CPS-ASEC carries
+survey-reported attributes; SPM level series therefore differ from
+ASEC-anchored series (CPSP, Census SPM).
+
+Measured at 2024 on the certified populace_us bundle:
+- PE child SPM (unforced year-grid baseline): **16.97%**
+- Census-published 2024 child SPM: **13.4%** (CPSP TCJA-world: 13.3%)
+- Forcing credit take-up/filing (takes_up_eitc + would_file_*) accounts for
+  only **~0.2pp** of the difference (16.97% → ~16.7% forced).
+
+## Named remaining channels (undecomposed)
+
+1. **Calculated vs reported benefits** — PE computes program amounts
+   (calibrated take-up) where ASEC carries survey reports. Known-issue
+   component: early_head_start at engine-default 100% take-up flows inside
+   household_net_income (populace#593; pe_gap citable for these rows).
+2. **Recalibration** — populace reweighting/sparsification vs ASEC weights.
+3. **Threshold treatment** — the certified environment runs spm-calculator
+   0.3.1 (the version policyengine-us#9081 flags). Verified 2026-08-02 from
+   the spm-calculator PR#32 branch data (BLS corrected workbook sha256
+   e7931a1f…): at sim-year 2024 the installed values EXACTLY equal the
+   pre-correction published series (renter 39,430 / owner+m 39,068 /
+   owner−m 32,586), so the 2019-2023 hand-entry errors (≤8%) do not affect
+   anything computed this session; only the BLS 2026-07-17 correction
+   applies at 2024 (−0.53% / +0.42% / +0.90% by tenure — small).
+
+## Decomposition home
+
+Channel decomposition (and an SPM calculation tool) is **Max's own pending
+project** — the policyengine-spm-decomposition repo. Not built in the
+compute-campaign lane (stood down 8/2 per redirect; a queued threshold-swap
+sim was cancelled before running). This file + the methodological_difference
+registry entry are the campaign's complete record.
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/additional_rate_1p_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/additional_rate_1p_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..dc2be43
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/additional_rate_1p_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+{
+ "reform_key": "additional_rate_1p",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "reform_hint": "Increase additional rate by 1p",
+ "pe_construction": "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[2].rate: 0.45 -> 0.46",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[2].rate\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.46}}",
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
+  "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
+  "data_build_model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+  "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+ },
+ "aggregates_gbp": {
+  "income_tax": 423760606390.3071,
+  "national_insurance": 61450306465.09366,
+  "ni_employer": 185481157065.2179,
+  "child_benefit": 17434702263.490685,
+  "universal_credit": 39887838277.66961,
+  "vat": 219622883998.86896,
+  "household_net_income": 1789411469372.6099,
+  "gov_tax": 1048672620829.9907,
+  "gov_spending": 485663250574.56665
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/aggregates_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/aggregates_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..1b15902
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/aggregates_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,200 @@
+{
+ "year": 2026,
+ "concept_notes": {
+  "period_basis": "PE calendar-year 2026; OBR/HMRC/DWP fiscal-year Apr-Mar (named delta)",
+  "receipts_vs_liability": "PE totals are accrual liabilities/entitlements; OBR receipts are cash (named delta)",
+  "caseload_concept": "annual-ever units with amount>0; DWP BECL caseloads are FY-average point-in-time (named delta, pre-adjudicated in staging)"
+ },
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
+  "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
+  "data_build_model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+  "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+ },
+ "totals_gbp": {
+  "income_tax": 421891913533.19946,
+  "national_insurance": 61450306465.09366,
+  "ni_employer": 185481157065.2179,
+  "vat": 219622883998.86896,
+  "capital_gains_tax": 24243246083.18426,
+  "council_tax": 60083773529.38769,
+  "fuel_duty": 12976906953.47097,
+  "universal_credit": 39887838277.66961,
+  "child_benefit": 17434702263.490685,
+  "state_pension": 145097022169.8143,
+  "pension_credit": 5725827904.638691,
+  "housing_benefit": 5225876604.907799,
+  "dla": 6342775060.054455,
+  "pip": 20593016304.099655,
+  "attendance_allowance": 4733056192.259981,
+  "carers_allowance": 3358301903.9573593,
+  "esa_income": 3156436499.0282836,
+  "esa_contrib": 2156177884.0742674,
+  "jsa_income": 0.0,
+  "jsa_contrib": 157967402.95190462,
+  "income_support": 0.0,
+  "working_tax_credit": 0.0,
+  "child_tax_credit": 0.0,
+  "winter_fuel_allowance": 1665681809.4226718,
+  "statutory_sick_pay": 1334439593.0563817,
+  "statutory_maternity_pay": 1366751179.0460634,
+  "council_tax_benefit": 2934640355.279371,
+  "tax_credits": 0.0,
+  "scottish_child_payment": 159585140.49813133,
+  "household_net_income": 1791280163555.2764,
+  "gov_tax": 1046803930669.7205,
+  "gov_spending": 485663250574.56665,
+  "household_benefits": 485946590329.34766
+ },
+ "recipient_counts": {
+  "income_tax": {
+   "unit": "person",
+   "recipient_units_annual_ever": 37691747.66273152
+  },
+  "national_insurance": {
+   "unit": "person",
+   "recipient_units_annual_ever": 27160368.26024862
+  },
+  "ni_employer": {
+   "unit": "person",
+   "recipient_units_annual_ever": 26292511.121389605
+  },
+  "vat": {
+   "unit": "household",
+   "recipient_units_annual_ever": 29470263.382621806
+  },
+  "capital_gains_tax": {
+   "unit": "person",
+   "recipient_units_annual_ever": 1507931.6696882509
+  },
+  "council_tax": {
+   "unit": "household",
+   "recipient_units_annual_ever": 28469697.078922734
+  },
+  "fuel_duty": {
+   "unit": "household",
+   "recipient_units_annual_ever": 12682432.195110451
+  },
+  "universal_credit": {
+   "unit": "benunit",
+   "recipient_units_annual_ever": 3296452.404684961
+  },
+  "child_benefit": {
+   "unit": "benunit",
+   "recipient_units_annual_ever": 8476800.070532933
+  },
+  "state_pension": {
+   "unit": "person",
+   "recipient_units_annual_ever": 12698240.466625169
+  },
+  "pension_credit": {
+   "unit": "benunit",
+   "recipient_units_annual_ever": 1217787.1301087737
+  },
+  "housing_benefit": {
+   "unit": "benunit",
+   "recipient_units_annual_ever": 732051.740912199
+  },
+  "dla": {
+   "unit": "person",
+   "recipient_units_annual_ever": 914247.0047843456
+  },
+  "pip": {
+   "unit": "person",
+   "recipient_units_annual_ever": 2817522.645383328
+  },
+  "attendance_allowance": {
+   "unit": "person",
+   "recipient_units_annual_ever": 915595.5719996989
+  },
+  "carers_allowance": {
+   "unit": "person",
+   "recipient_units_annual_ever": 747052.9823623598
+  },
+  "esa_income": {
+   "unit": "benunit",
+   "recipient_units_annual_ever": 352682.03596651554
+  },
+  "esa_contrib": {
+   "unit": "person",
+   "recipient_units_annual_ever": 303683.59814062715
+  },
+  "jsa_income": {
+   "unit": "benunit",
+   "recipient_units_annual_ever": 0.0
+  },
+  "jsa_contrib": {
+   "unit": "person",
+   "recipient_units_annual_ever": 32927.54791140556
+  },
+  "income_support": {
+   "unit": "benunit",
+   "recipient_units_annual_ever": 0.0
+  },
+  "working_tax_credit": {
+   "unit": "benunit",
+   "recipient_units_annual_ever": 0.0
+  },
+  "child_tax_credit": {
+   "unit": "benunit",
+   "recipient_units_annual_ever": 0.0
+  },
+  "winter_fuel_allowance": {
+   "unit": "household",
+   "recipient_units_annual_ever": 7060742.019033432
+  },
+  "statutory_sick_pay": {
+   "unit": "person",
+   "recipient_units_annual_ever": 254034.1130834818
+  },
+  "statutory_maternity_pay": {
+   "unit": "person",
+   "recipient_units_annual_ever": 166412.83011466265
+  },
+  "council_tax_benefit": {
+   "unit": "benunit",
+   "recipient_units_annual_ever": 2886327.5622606277
+  },
+  "tax_credits": {
+   "unit": "benunit",
+   "recipient_units_annual_ever": 0.0
+  },
+  "scottish_child_payment": {
+   "unit": "person",
+   "recipient_units_annual_ever": 108827.83540725708
+  },
+  "household_net_income": {
+   "unit": "household",
+   "recipient_units_annual_ever": 29369810.998743203
+  },
+  "gov_tax": {
+   "unit": "household",
+   "recipient_units_annual_ever": 29470583.18248133
+  },
+  "gov_spending": {
+   "unit": "household",
+   "recipient_units_annual_ever": 29470583.18248133
+  },
+  "household_benefits": {
+   "unit": "household",
+   "recipient_units_annual_ever": 29470583.18248133
+  }
+ },
+ "not_in_model": []
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/baseline_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/baseline_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..057f220
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/baseline_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
+{
+ "reform_key": "baseline",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "reform_hint": "baseline",
+ "pe_construction": "",
+ "reform_json": "baseline",
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
+  "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
+  "data_build_model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+  "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+ },
+ "aggregates_gbp": {
+  "income_tax": 421891913533.19946,
+  "national_insurance": 61450306465.09366,
+  "ni_employer": 185481157065.2179,
+  "child_benefit": 17434702263.490685,
+  "universal_credit": 39887838277.66961,
+  "vat": 219622883998.86896,
+  "household_net_income": 1791280163555.2764,
+  "gov_tax": 1046803930669.7205,
+  "gov_spending": 485663250574.56665
+ },
+ "poverty": {
+  "var": "in_poverty_ahc",
+  "rate_all": 0.18629731591349413,
+  "count_all": 13028998.553302944,
+  "rate_child_u16": 0.26918599390042075,
+  "count_child_u16": 3642525.343844831
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/basic_rate_1p_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/basic_rate_1p_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..c2c1d6c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/basic_rate_1p_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+{
+ "reform_key": "basic_rate_1p",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "reform_hint": "Change in basic rate by 1p",
+ "pe_construction": "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[0].rate: 0.2 -> 0.21000000000000002",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[0].rate\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.21000000000000002}}",
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
+  "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
+  "data_build_model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+  "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+ },
+ "aggregates_gbp": {
+  "income_tax": 429170357848.19604,
+  "national_insurance": 61450306465.09366,
+  "ni_employer": 185481157065.2179,
+  "child_benefit": 17434702263.490685,
+  "universal_credit": 39940721048.87594,
+  "vat": 219622883998.86896,
+  "household_net_income": 1784059120421.784,
+  "gov_tax": 1054082375257.415,
+  "gov_spending": 485720651909.46375
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/brl_10pct_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/brl_10pct_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..a79d832
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/brl_10pct_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+{
+ "reform_key": "brl_10pct",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "reform_hint": "Increase basic rate limit by 10%",
+ "pe_construction": "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold: 37700 -> 41470.0",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 41470.0}}",
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
+  "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
+  "data_build_model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+  "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+ },
+ "aggregates_gbp": {
+  "income_tax": 414956034385.8568,
+  "national_insurance": 61450306465.09366,
+  "ni_employer": 185481157065.2179,
+  "child_benefit": 17434702263.490685,
+  "universal_credit": 39879827000.2447,
+  "vat": 219622883998.86896,
+  "household_net_income": 1798292944062.5166,
+  "gov_tax": 1039783137834.5403,
+  "gov_spending": 485655239297.94086
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/brl_1pct_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/brl_1pct_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..57bc08a
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/brl_1pct_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+{
+ "reform_key": "brl_1pct",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "reform_hint": "Change basic rate limit by 1%",
+ "pe_construction": "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold: 37700 -> 38077.0",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 38077.0}}",
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
+  "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
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+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/cb_additional_1pw_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/cb_additional_1pw_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..d9948f1
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/cb_additional_1pw_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+{
+ "reform_key": "cb_additional_1pw",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "reform_hint": "Increase subsequent child rate by \u00a31 per week (Child Benefit)",
+ "pe_construction": "gov.hmrc.child_benefit.amount.additional: 17.9 -> 18.9",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.hmrc.child_benefit.amount.additional\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 18.9}}",
+ "bundle": {
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+  "universal_credit": 39876311217.78101,
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+  "gov_tax": 1046875061471.4768,
+  "gov_spending": 485957972068.68146
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/cb_first_1pw_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/cb_first_1pw_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..0d41383
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/cb_first_1pw_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+{
+ "reform_key": "cb_first_1pw",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "reform_hint": "Increase first child rate by \u00a31 per week (Child Benefit)",
+ "pe_construction": "gov.hmrc.child_benefit.amount.eldest: 27.05 -> 28.05",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.hmrc.child_benefit.amount.eldest\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 28.05}}",
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
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+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
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+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
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+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
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+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+ },
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+  "income_tax": 421998371267.27783,
+  "national_insurance": 61450306465.09366,
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+  "child_benefit": 17875496449.564846,
+  "universal_credit": 39877696638.711266,
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+  "gov_tax": 1046910388375.8025,
+  "gov_spending": 486092662024.4314
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/class4_1pp_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/class4_1pp_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..917363d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/class4_1pp_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+{
+ "reform_key": "class4_1pp",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "reform_hint": "Change Class 4 main rate by 1 percentage point",
+ "pe_construction": "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main: 0.06 -> 0.06999999999999999",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.06999999999999999}}",
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
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+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
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+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
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+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
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+  "income_tax": 421891913533.19946,
+  "national_insurance": 62033845047.73435,
+  "ni_employer": 185481157065.2179,
+  "child_benefit": 17434702263.490685,
+  "universal_credit": 39895539839.215096,
+  "vat": 219622883998.86896,
+  "household_net_income": 1790704386445.0725,
+  "gov_tax": 1047387469094.1289,
+  "gov_spending": 485671012295.77014
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/dividend_allowance_100_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/dividend_allowance_100_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..00c1660
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/dividend_allowance_100_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+{
+ "reform_key": "dividend_allowance_100",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "reform_hint": "Change dividend allowance by \u00a3100",
+ "pe_construction": "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.dividend_allowance: 500 -> 600",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.dividend_allowance\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 600}}",
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
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+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
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+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
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+  "national_insurance": 61450306465.09366,
+  "ni_employer": 185481157065.2179,
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+  "universal_credit": 39887583907.98256,
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+  "household_net_income": 1791332109461.8525,
+  "gov_tax": 1046751153142.9175,
+  "gov_spending": 485662419548.0166
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/employee_additional_1pp_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/employee_additional_1pp_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..13a4bd0
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/employee_additional_1pp_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+{
+ "reform_key": "employee_additional_1pp",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "reform_hint": "Change Class 1 employee additional rate by 1 percentage point",
+ "pe_construction": "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.additional: 0.02 -> 0.03",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.additional\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.03}}",
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
+  "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
+  "data_build_model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+  "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
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+  "national_insurance": 65842185759.9592,
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+  "household_net_income": 1786889404491.035,
+  "gov_tax": 1051195806571.1741,
+  "gov_spending": 485664370731.6019
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/employee_ni_1pp_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/employee_ni_1pp_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..85715de
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/employee_ni_1pp_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+{
+ "reform_key": "employee_ni_1pp",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "reform_hint": "Change Class 1 employee main rate by 1 percentage point",
+ "pe_construction": "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main: 0.08 -> 0.09",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.09}}",
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
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+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
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+  "certified_by": "None",
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+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
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+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
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+  "national_insurance": 67484728237.42434,
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+  "gov_tax": 1052838353684.803,
+  "gov_spending": 485716169381.86334
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/employer_ni_1pp_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/employer_ni_1pp_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..d678dab
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/employer_ni_1pp_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+{
+ "reform_key": "employer_ni_1pp",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "reform_hint": "Change Class 1 employer rate by 1 percentage point",
+ "pe_construction": "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employer: 0.15 -> 0.16",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employer\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.16}}",
+ "bundle": {
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+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
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+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/fixed_line/with_limit_2026_meta.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/fixed_line/with_limit_2026_meta.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..d0c4bc6
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/fixed_line/with_limit_2026_meta.json
@@ -0,0 +1,34 @@
+{
+ "world": "with_limit",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "construction": "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count: inf -> 2 (reinstate; born-pre-2017 exemption active)",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 2}}",
+ "hbai_dependent_child_proxy": "is_child_or_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit: under-16 OR 16-19 qualifying young person in full-time non-advanced education, excl. looked-after children (closest installed analogue of the HBAI dependent-child definition)",
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
+  "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
+  "data_build_model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+  "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+ },
+ "aggregates_gbp": {
+  "universal_credit": 38783589984.86714,
+  "household_net_income": 1790266784216.2012,
+  "gov_spending": 484560539496.0421
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/fixed_line/with_limit_fulltakeup_2026_meta.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/fixed_line/with_limit_fulltakeup_2026_meta.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..0e6f1b0
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/fixed_line/with_limit_fulltakeup_2026_meta.json
@@ -0,0 +1,45 @@
+{
+ "world": "with_limit",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "mode": "fulltakeup",
+ "forced_flags": [
+  "would_claim_uc",
+  "would_claim_housing_benefit",
+  "would_claim_child_benefit",
+  "would_claim_council_tax_reduction",
+  "would_claim_CTC",
+  "would_claim_WTC",
+  "would_claim_IS",
+  "claims_all_entitled_benefits"
+ ],
+ "construction": "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count: inf -> 2 (reinstate; born-pre-2017 exemption active)",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 2}}",
+ "hbai_dependent_child_proxy": "is_child_or_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit: under-16 OR 16-19 qualifying young person in full-time non-advanced education, excl. looked-after children (closest installed analogue of the HBAI dependent-child definition)",
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
+  "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
+  "data_build_model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+  "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+ },
+ "aggregates_gbp": {
+  "universal_credit": 53429818141.101036,
+  "household_net_income": 1803220878970.0093,
+  "gov_spending": 497880464939.9005
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/fixed_line/without_limit_2026_meta.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/fixed_line/without_limit_2026_meta.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..38948e2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/fixed_line/without_limit_2026_meta.json
@@ -0,0 +1,34 @@
+{
+ "world": "without_limit",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "construction": "baseline (limit abolished in current law)",
+ "reform_json": "baseline",
+ "hbai_dependent_child_proxy": "is_child_or_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit: under-16 OR 16-19 qualifying young person in full-time non-advanced education, excl. looked-after children (closest installed analogue of the HBAI dependent-child definition)",
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
+  "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
+  "data_build_model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+  "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+ },
+ "aggregates_gbp": {
+  "universal_credit": 39887838277.66961,
+  "household_net_income": 1791280163555.2764,
+  "gov_spending": 485663250574.56665
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/fixed_line/without_limit_fulltakeup_2026_meta.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/fixed_line/without_limit_fulltakeup_2026_meta.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..1e5ad20
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/fixed_line/without_limit_fulltakeup_2026_meta.json
@@ -0,0 +1,45 @@
+{
+ "world": "without_limit",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "mode": "fulltakeup",
+ "forced_flags": [
+  "would_claim_uc",
+  "would_claim_housing_benefit",
+  "would_claim_child_benefit",
+  "would_claim_council_tax_reduction",
+  "would_claim_CTC",
+  "would_claim_WTC",
+  "would_claim_IS",
+  "claims_all_entitled_benefits"
+ ],
+ "construction": "baseline (limit abolished in current law)",
+ "reform_json": "baseline",
+ "hbai_dependent_child_proxy": "is_child_or_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit: under-16 OR 16-19 qualifying young person in full-time non-advanced education, excl. looked-after children (closest installed analogue of the HBAI dependent-child definition)",
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
+  "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
+  "data_build_model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+  "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+ },
+ "aggregates_gbp": {
+  "universal_credit": 55279919145.339645,
+  "household_net_income": 1804948205172.6,
+  "gov_spending": 499729028736.36316
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/free_joins.csv b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/free_joins.csv
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..3953177
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/free_joins.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+source,label,period,external_value,pe_value,ratio,pe_construction,conventions,status
+uk_obr,Income tax (gross of tax credits),2026,359618867481.6865,421891913533.19946,1.1731640124657368,income_tax total,OBR/DWP fiscal year 2026-27 vs PE calendar 2026 (named delta); receipts/expenditure cash vs PE accrual entitlement/liability (named delta),computed
+uk_obr,Pay as you earn,2026,296293048154.10803,,,,,"skipped: skip: PAYE is a collection channel, not a liability concept PE separates"
+uk_obr,Self assessment,2026,64372729845.45013,,,,,skipped: skip: collection channel
+uk_obr,National insurance contributions,2026,211594391642.42764,246931463530.31155,1.1670038209122284,national_insurance + ni_employer,OBR/DWP fiscal year 2026-27 vs PE calendar 2026 (named delta); receipts/expenditure cash vs PE accrual entitlement/liability (named delta),computed
+uk_obr,Class 1 Employee NICs,2026,51474273325.11673,61450306465.09366,1.1938061966794031,national_insurance (employee+self-employed personal NI) — join also covers Class 4/2 row jointly; scope note,OBR/DWP fiscal year 2026-27 vs PE calendar 2026 (named delta); receipts/expenditure cash vs PE accrual entitlement/liability (named delta),computed
+uk_obr,Class 1 Employer NICs,2026,150989275628.03833,185481157065.2179,1.2284392801655015,ni_employer total,OBR/DWP fiscal year 2026-27 vs PE calendar 2026 (named delta); receipts/expenditure cash vs PE accrual entitlement/liability (named delta),computed
+uk_obr,Class 4 and Class 2 Self employed NICs,2026,3156842035.84375,,,,,skipped: joined jointly with Class 1 Employee row (PE national_insurance is combined personal NI)
+uk_obr,Pay as you earn,2026,294158207190.2883,,,,,"skipped: skip: PAYE is a collection channel, not a liability concept PE separates"
+uk_obr,Self assessment,2026,64372729845.45013,,,,,skipped: skip: collection channel
+uk_obr,National insurance contributions,2026,210445437610.04147,246931463530.31155,1.173375228917432,national_insurance + ni_employer,OBR/DWP fiscal year 2026-27 vs PE calendar 2026 (named delta); receipts/expenditure cash vs PE accrual entitlement/liability (named delta),computed
+uk_obr,Value added tax,2026,187704367258.10846,219622883998.86896,1.1700467453528665,vat total (household VAT incidence model),OBR/DWP fiscal year 2026-27 vs PE calendar 2026 (named delta); receipts/expenditure cash vs PE accrual entitlement/liability (named delta),computed
+uk_obr,Fuel duties,2026,24628571426.324806,12976906953.47097,0.5269045747249599,fuel_duty total (household incidence share only — OBR head includes business use; scope note),OBR/DWP fiscal year 2026-27 vs PE calendar 2026 (named delta); receipts/expenditure cash vs PE accrual entitlement/liability (named delta),computed
+uk_obr,Capital gains tax,2026,20801165202.018173,24243246083.18426,1.165475387928371,capital_gains_tax total,OBR/DWP fiscal year 2026-27 vs PE calendar 2026 (named delta); receipts/expenditure cash vs PE accrual entitlement/liability (named delta),computed
+uk_obr,Council tax,2026,52761337186.675934,60083773529.38769,1.1387841312058506,council_tax total,OBR/DWP fiscal year 2026-27 vs PE calendar 2026 (named delta); receipts/expenditure cash vs PE accrual entitlement/liability (named delta),computed
+uk_dwp,state_pension,2026,146071196250.36,145097022169.8143,0.9933308269833295,state_pension total,OBR/DWP fiscal year 2026-27 vs PE calendar 2026 (named delta); receipts/expenditure cash vs PE accrual entitlement/liability (named delta); geography gb vs PE UK (named delta),computed
+uk_dwp,uc_and_equivalents,2026,92246901091.19,,,,,skipped: composite of UC + legacy equivalents; overlaps universal_credit row — skipped to avoid double-join
+uk_dwp,universal_credit,2026,79208239139.54,39887838277.66961,0.5035819342909491,universal_credit total,OBR/DWP fiscal year 2026-27 vs PE calendar 2026 (named delta); receipts/expenditure cash vs PE accrual entitlement/liability (named delta); geography gb vs PE UK (named delta),computed
+uk_dwp,pension_credit,2026,6144472389.48,5725827904.638691,0.9318664877462753,pension_credit total,OBR/DWP fiscal year 2026-27 vs PE calendar 2026 (named delta); receipts/expenditure cash vs PE accrual entitlement/liability (named delta); geography gb vs PE UK (named delta),computed
+uk_dwp,dla,2026,8289471895.17,6342775060.054455,0.7651603311123087,dla total,OBR/DWP fiscal year 2026-27 vs PE calendar 2026 (named delta); receipts/expenditure cash vs PE accrual entitlement/liability (named delta); geography england_wales vs PE UK (named delta),computed
+uk_dwp,pip,2026,28542217375.36,20593016304.099655,0.7214932194398199,pip total,OBR/DWP fiscal year 2026-27 vs PE calendar 2026 (named delta); receipts/expenditure cash vs PE accrual entitlement/liability (named delta); geography england_wales vs PE UK (named delta),computed
+uk_dwp,attendance_allowance,2026,8497187075.07,4733056192.259981,0.5570144743719192,attendance_allowance total,OBR/DWP fiscal year 2026-27 vs PE calendar 2026 (named delta); receipts/expenditure cash vs PE accrual entitlement/liability (named delta); geography england_wales vs PE UK (named delta),computed
+uk_dwp,child_benefit,2026,12945231644.37,17434702263.490685,1.3468049659098371,child_benefit total,OBR/DWP fiscal year 2026-27 vs PE calendar 2026 (named delta); receipts/expenditure cash vs PE accrual entitlement/liability (named delta); geography gb vs PE UK (named delta),computed
+uk_dwp,personal_tax_credits,2026,-61742834.79,,,,,skipped: legacy tax credits ended April 2025; PE 2026 total ~0 by design — join skipped
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/free_joins_summary.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/free_joins_summary.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..6a7bff6
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/free_joins_summary.json
@@ -0,0 +1,118 @@
+{
+ "computed": 16,
+ "skipped": 7,
+ "rows": [
+  {
+   "source": "uk_obr",
+   "label": "Income tax (gross of tax credits)",
+   "external_value": 359618867481.6865,
+   "pe_value": 421891913533.19946,
+   "ratio": 1.1731640124657368
+  },
+  {
+   "source": "uk_obr",
+   "label": "National insurance contributions",
+   "external_value": 211594391642.42764,
+   "pe_value": 246931463530.31155,
+   "ratio": 1.1670038209122284
+  },
+  {
+   "source": "uk_obr",
+   "label": "Class 1 Employee NICs",
+   "external_value": 51474273325.11673,
+   "pe_value": 61450306465.09366,
+   "ratio": 1.1938061966794031
+  },
+  {
+   "source": "uk_obr",
+   "label": "Class 1 Employer NICs",
+   "external_value": 150989275628.03833,
+   "pe_value": 185481157065.2179,
+   "ratio": 1.2284392801655015
+  },
+  {
+   "source": "uk_obr",
+   "label": "National insurance contributions",
+   "external_value": 210445437610.04147,
+   "pe_value": 246931463530.31155,
+   "ratio": 1.173375228917432
+  },
+  {
+   "source": "uk_obr",
+   "label": "Value added tax",
+   "external_value": 187704367258.10846,
+   "pe_value": 219622883998.86896,
+   "ratio": 1.1700467453528665
+  },
+  {
+   "source": "uk_obr",
+   "label": "Fuel duties",
+   "external_value": 24628571426.324806,
+   "pe_value": 12976906953.47097,
+   "ratio": 0.5269045747249599
+  },
+  {
+   "source": "uk_obr",
+   "label": "Capital gains tax",
+   "external_value": 20801165202.018173,
+   "pe_value": 24243246083.18426,
+   "ratio": 1.165475387928371
+  },
+  {
+   "source": "uk_obr",
+   "label": "Council tax",
+   "external_value": 52761337186.675934,
+   "pe_value": 60083773529.38769,
+   "ratio": 1.1387841312058506
+  },
+  {
+   "source": "uk_dwp",
+   "label": "state_pension",
+   "external_value": 146071196250.36,
+   "pe_value": 145097022169.8143,
+   "ratio": 0.9933308269833295
+  },
+  {
+   "source": "uk_dwp",
+   "label": "universal_credit",
+   "external_value": 79208239139.54,
+   "pe_value": 39887838277.66961,
+   "ratio": 0.5035819342909491
+  },
+  {
+   "source": "uk_dwp",
+   "label": "pension_credit",
+   "external_value": 6144472389.48,
+   "pe_value": 5725827904.638691,
+   "ratio": 0.9318664877462753
+  },
+  {
+   "source": "uk_dwp",
+   "label": "dla",
+   "external_value": 8289471895.17,
+   "pe_value": 6342775060.054455,
+   "ratio": 0.7651603311123087
+  },
+  {
+   "source": "uk_dwp",
+   "label": "pip",
+   "external_value": 28542217375.36,
+   "pe_value": 20593016304.099655,
+   "ratio": 0.7214932194398199
+  },
+  {
+   "source": "uk_dwp",
+   "label": "attendance_allowance",
+   "external_value": 8497187075.07,
+   "pe_value": 4733056192.259981,
+   "ratio": 0.5570144743719192
+  },
+  {
+   "source": "uk_dwp",
+   "label": "child_benefit",
+   "external_value": 12945231644.37,
+   "pe_value": 17434702263.490685,
+   "ratio": 1.3468049659098371
+  }
+ ]
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/higher_rate_1p_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/higher_rate_1p_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..454a6ac
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/higher_rate_1p_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+{
+ "reform_key": "higher_rate_1p",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "reform_hint": "Change in higher rate by 1p",
+ "pe_construction": "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].rate: 0.4 -> 0.41000000000000003",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].rate\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.41000000000000003}}",
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
+  "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
+  "data_build_model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+  "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+ },
+ "aggregates_gbp": {
+  "income_tax": 425122001726.7472,
+  "national_insurance": 61450306465.09366,
+  "ni_employer": 185481157065.2179,
+  "child_benefit": 17434702263.490685,
+  "universal_credit": 39888830158.40607,
+  "vat": 219622883998.86896,
+  "household_net_income": 1788051065526.0142,
+  "gov_tax": 1050034016776.2913,
+  "gov_spending": 485664242455.3031
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/ni_lpl_104_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/ni_lpl_104_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..137efba
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/ni_lpl_104_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+{
+ "reform_key": "ni_lpl_104",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "reform_hint": "Change lower profits limit by \u00a3104 per year",
+ "pe_construction": "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit: 12570 -> 12674",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 12674}}",
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
+  "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
+  "data_build_model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+  "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+ },
+ "aggregates_gbp": {
+  "income_tax": 421891913533.19946,
+  "national_insurance": 61432802737.61227,
+  "ni_employer": 185481157065.2179,
+  "child_benefit": 17434702263.490685,
+  "universal_credit": 39887468519.522835,
+  "vat": 219622883998.86896,
+  "household_net_income": 1791297289957.8032,
+  "gov_tax": 1046786427292.1333,
+  "gov_spending": 485662874001.65283
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/ni_pt_2pw_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/ni_pt_2pw_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..12226b7
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/ni_pt_2pw_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+{
+ "reform_key": "ni_pt_2pw",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "reform_hint": "Change employee entry threshold by \u00a32 per week",
+ "pe_construction": "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold: 241.73 -> 243.73",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 243.73}}",
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
+  "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
+  "data_build_model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+  "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+ },
+ "aggregates_gbp": {
+  "income_tax": 421891913533.19946,
+  "national_insurance": 61247412506.2825,
+  "ni_employer": 185481157065.2179,
+  "child_benefit": 17434702263.490685,
+  "universal_credit": 39884554264.69081,
+  "vat": 219622883998.86896,
+  "household_net_income": 1791479630711.484,
+  "gov_tax": 1046601034859.8083,
+  "gov_spending": 485659828356.7229
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/ni_st_2pw_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/ni_st_2pw_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..ef64ada
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/ni_st_2pw_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+{
+ "reform_key": "ni_st_2pw",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "reform_hint": "Change employer threshold by \u00a32 per week",
+ "pe_construction": "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold: 96 -> 98",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 98}}",
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
+  "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
+  "data_build_model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+  "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+ },
+ "aggregates_gbp": {
+  "income_tax": 421988745899.63025,
+  "national_insurance": 61470250117.390854,
+  "ni_employer": 185124471869.89862,
+  "child_benefit": 17434702263.490685,
+  "universal_credit": 39882152358.15605,
+  "vat": 219622883998.86896,
+  "household_net_income": 1791518553057.7065,
+  "gov_tax": 1046564131847.5134,
+  "gov_spending": 485657547200.1842
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/ni_uel_10pw_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/ni_uel_10pw_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..273c914
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/ni_uel_10pw_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+{
+ "reform_key": "ni_uel_10pw",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "reform_hint": "Change upper earnings limit by \u00a310 per week",
+ "pe_construction": "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.upper_earnings_limit: 966.73 -> 976.73",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.upper_earnings_limit\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 976.73}}",
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
+  "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
+  "data_build_model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+  "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+ },
+ "aggregates_gbp": {
+  "income_tax": 421891913533.19946,
+  "national_insurance": 61698340326.92478,
+  "ni_employer": 185481157065.2179,
+  "child_benefit": 17434702263.490685,
+  "universal_credit": 39888279664.24094,
+  "vat": 219622883998.86896,
+  "household_net_income": 1791032569936.045,
+  "gov_tax": 1047051964774.6648,
+  "gov_spending": 485663691957.69104
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/ni_upl_520_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/ni_upl_520_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..f595517
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/ni_upl_520_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+{
+ "reform_key": "ni_upl_520",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "reform_hint": "Change upper profits limit by \u00a3520 per year",
+ "pe_construction": "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit: 50270 -> 50790",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 50790}}",
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
+  "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
+  "data_build_model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+  "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+ },
+ "aggregates_gbp": {
+  "income_tax": 421891913533.19946,
+  "national_insurance": 61465511136.82886,
+  "ni_employer": 185481157065.2179,
+  "child_benefit": 17434702263.490685,
+  "universal_credit": 39887906318.899765,
+  "vat": 219622883998.86896,
+  "household_net_income": 1791265026916.7566,
+  "gov_tax": 1046819135514.6714,
+  "gov_spending": 485663318615.7969
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/obr_measures/art_as2022_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/obr_measures/art_as2022_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..096f731
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/obr_measures/art_as2022_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
+{
+ "key": "art_as2022",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "measure_reversed": "Additional-rate threshold 150k -> 125,140 (AS2022) \u2014 REVERSED",
+ "pe_construction": "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[2].threshold: 125140.0 -> 150000",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[2].threshold\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 150000}}",
+ "baseline_for_delta": "results/uk/baseline_2026.json",
+ "conventions": [
+  "PE measure effect = MINUS the (this - baseline) delta",
+  "OBR costing scored vs OBR announcement-time baseline w/ behavioural adjustments; this is the parametric content on the certified 2026 world (baseline-vintage delta, named)",
+  "PE calendar-year vs OBR fiscal-year (named)"
+ ],
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
+  "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
+  "data_build_model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+  "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+ },
+ "aggregates_gbp": {
+  "income_tax": 420104649997.17816,
+  "national_insurance": 61450306465.09366,
+  "ni_employer": 185481157065.2179,
+  "child_benefit": 17434702263.490685,
+  "universal_credit": 39887838277.66961,
+  "vat": 219622883998.86896,
+  "capital_gains_tax": 24243246317.39654,
+  "household_net_income": 1793067423736.099,
+  "gov_tax": 1045016665180.2018,
+  "gov_spending": 485663250574.56665
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/obr_measures/cgt_ab2024_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/obr_measures/cgt_ab2024_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..0da6f55
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/obr_measures/cgt_ab2024_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
+{
+ "key": "cgt_ab2024",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "measure_reversed": "CGT main rates to 18%/24% (AB2024) \u2014 REVERSED to 10%/20%",
+ "pe_construction": "gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate: 0.18 -> 0.10; gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate: 0.24 -> 0.20",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.1}, \"gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.2}}",
+ "baseline_for_delta": "results/uk/baseline_2026.json",
+ "conventions": [
+  "PE measure effect = MINUS the (this - baseline) delta",
+  "OBR costing scored vs OBR announcement-time baseline w/ behavioural adjustments; this is the parametric content on the certified 2026 world (baseline-vintage delta, named)",
+  "PE calendar-year vs OBR fiscal-year (named)"
+ ],
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
+  "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
+  "data_build_model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+  "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+ },
+ "aggregates_gbp": {
+  "income_tax": 421891913533.19946,
+  "national_insurance": 61450306465.09366,
+  "ni_employer": 185481157065.2179,
+  "child_benefit": 17434702263.490685,
+  "universal_credit": 39887838277.66961,
+  "vat": 219622883998.86896,
+  "capital_gains_tax": 21410681957.39096,
+  "household_net_income": 1794112726617.4487,
+  "gov_tax": 1043971365921.0344,
+  "gov_spending": 485663250574.56665
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/obr_measures/class2_reinstate_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/obr_measures/class2_reinstate_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..1642c56
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/obr_measures/class2_reinstate_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
+{
+ "key": "class2_reinstate",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "measure_reversed": "Class 2 NICs abolition (AS2023) \u2014 REVERSED (flat rate reinstated)",
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+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.flat_rate\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 3.15}}",
+ "baseline_for_delta": "results/uk/baseline_2026.json",
+ "conventions": [
+  "PE measure effect = MINUS the (this - baseline) delta",
+  "OBR costing scored vs OBR announcement-time baseline w/ behavioural adjustments; this is the parametric content on the certified 2026 world (baseline-vintage delta, named)",
+  "PE calendar-year vs OBR fiscal-year (named)"
+ ],
+ "bundle": {
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+  "certified_by": "None",
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+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
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+  "gov_tax": 1047366958222.5403,
+  "gov_spending": 485676176862.0828
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/obr_measures/class4_p3_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/obr_measures/class4_p3_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..bb97160
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/obr_measures/class4_p3_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
+{
+ "key": "class4_p3",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "measure_reversed": "Class 4 main-rate cuts AS2023 (1p) + SB2024 (2p) \u2014 stack REVERSED",
+ "pe_construction": "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main: 0.06 -> 0.09",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.09}}",
+ "baseline_for_delta": "results/uk/baseline_2026.json",
+ "conventions": [
+  "PE measure effect = MINUS the (this - baseline) delta",
+  "OBR costing scored vs OBR announcement-time baseline w/ behavioural adjustments; this is the parametric content on the certified 2026 world (baseline-vintage delta, named)",
+  "PE calendar-year vs OBR fiscal-year (named)"
+ ],
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
+  "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
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+  "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+  "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+ },
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+  "income_tax": 421891913533.19946,
+  "national_insurance": 63205745904.51386,
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+  "universal_credit": 39911053876.13027,
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+  "capital_gains_tax": 24243246083.18426,
+  "household_net_income": 1789548119692.3872,
+  "gov_tax": 1048559369647.7144,
+  "gov_spending": 485686646684.7969
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/obr_measures/div_ab2021_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/obr_measures/div_ab2021_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..9071ca9
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/obr_measures/div_ab2021_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
+{
+ "key": "div_ab2021",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "measure_reversed": "Dividend rates +1.25pp all bands (AB2021) \u2014 REVERSED (delta on current)",
+ "pe_construction": "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate: 0.1075 -> 0.09500; gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate: 0.3575 -> 0.34500; gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[2].rate: 0.3935 -> 0.38100",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.095}, \"gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.345}, \"gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[2].rate\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.381}}",
+ "baseline_for_delta": "results/uk/baseline_2026.json",
+ "conventions": [
+  "PE measure effect = MINUS the (this - baseline) delta",
+  "OBR costing scored vs OBR announcement-time baseline w/ behavioural adjustments; this is the parametric content on the certified 2026 world (baseline-vintage delta, named)",
+  "PE calendar-year vs OBR fiscal-year (named)"
+ ],
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
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+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
+  "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
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+  "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+  "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+ },
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+  "national_insurance": 61450306465.09366,
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+  "universal_credit": 39882748479.54425,
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+  "gov_tax": 1046184946709.1343,
+  "gov_spending": 485648868498.1245
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/obr_measures/ee_ni_p2_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/obr_measures/ee_ni_p2_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..968ea16
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/obr_measures/ee_ni_p2_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
+{
+ "key": "ee_ni_p2",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "measure_reversed": "Class 1 employee main rate cut(s) \u2014 REVERSED by 2pp",
+ "pe_construction": "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main: 0.08 -> 0.1",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.1}}",
+ "baseline_for_delta": "results/uk/baseline_2026.json",
+ "conventions": [
+  "PE measure effect = MINUS the (this - baseline) delta",
+  "OBR costing scored vs OBR announcement-time baseline w/ behavioural adjustments; this is the parametric content on the certified 2026 world (baseline-vintage delta, named)",
+  "PE calendar-year vs OBR fiscal-year (named)"
+ ],
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
+  "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
+  "data_build_model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+  "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+ },
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+  "national_insurance": 73520380112.52252,
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+  "universal_credit": 39992516908.41095,
+  "vat": 219622883998.86896,
+  "capital_gains_tax": 24243246083.18426,
+  "household_net_income": 1779315955619.5928,
+  "gov_tax": 1058874002645.786,
+  "gov_spending": 485769116124.35004
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/obr_measures/ee_ni_p4_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/obr_measures/ee_ni_p4_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..830bf27
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/obr_measures/ee_ni_p4_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
+{
+ "key": "ee_ni_p4",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "measure_reversed": "Class 1 employee main rate cut(s) \u2014 REVERSED by 4pp",
+ "pe_construction": "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main: 0.08 -> 0.12",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.12}}",
+ "baseline_for_delta": "results/uk/baseline_2026.json",
+ "conventions": [
+  "PE measure effect = MINUS the (this - baseline) delta",
+  "OBR costing scored vs OBR announcement-time baseline w/ behavioural adjustments; this is the parametric content on the certified 2026 world (baseline-vintage delta, named)",
+  "PE calendar-year vs OBR fiscal-year (named)"
+ ],
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
+  "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
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+  "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+  "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+ },
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+  "national_insurance": 85592349113.85391,
+  "ni_employer": 185481157065.2179,
+  "child_benefit": 17434702263.490685,
+  "universal_credit": 40101606891.22583,
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+  "gov_tax": 1070945974252.863,
+  "gov_spending": 485894705385.7301
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/obr_measures/employer_ab2024_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/obr_measures/employer_ab2024_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..477d556
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/obr_measures/employer_ab2024_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
+{
+ "key": "employer_ab2024",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "measure_reversed": "Employer NICs: rate +1.2pp to 15% + secondary threshold cut (AB2024) \u2014 REVERSED",
+ "pe_construction": "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employer: 0.15 -> 0.138; gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold: 96.0 -> 175.0/wk (tree's own 2024 value)",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employer\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.138}, \"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 175.0}}",
+ "baseline_for_delta": "results/uk/baseline_2026.json",
+ "conventions": [
+  "PE measure effect = MINUS the (this - baseline) delta",
+  "OBR costing scored vs OBR announcement-time baseline w/ behavioural adjustments; this is the parametric content on the certified 2026 world (baseline-vintage delta, named)",
+  "PE calendar-year vs OBR fiscal-year (named)"
+ ],
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
+  "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
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+  "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
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+  "national_insurance": 62709891794.52179,
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+  "gov_tax": 1030563846566.1243,
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+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/obr_measures/hicbc_sb2024_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/obr_measures/hicbc_sb2024_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..356dd00
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/obr_measures/hicbc_sb2024_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
+{
+ "key": "hicbc_sb2024",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "measure_reversed": "HICBC: increase threshold to \u00a360,000 and taper to \u00a380,000 (SB2024) \u2014 REVERSED",
+ "pe_construction": "phase_out 60k/80k -> 50k/60k (pre-SB2024 statute values from tree history)",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.hmrc.income_tax.charges.CB_HITC.phase_out_start\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 50000}, \"gov.hmrc.income_tax.charges.CB_HITC.phase_out_end\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 60000}}",
+ "baseline_for_delta": "results/uk/baseline_2026.json",
+ "conventions": [
+  "PE measure effect = MINUS the (this - baseline) delta",
+  "OBR costing scored vs OBR announcement-time baseline w/ behavioural adjustments; this is the parametric content on the certified 2026 world (baseline-vintage delta, named)",
+  "PE calendar-year vs OBR fiscal-year (named)"
+ ],
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
+  "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
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+  "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+ },
+ "aggregates_gbp": {
+  "income_tax": 423612542977.2704,
+  "national_insurance": 61450306465.09366,
+  "ni_employer": 185481157065.2179,
+  "child_benefit": 17434702263.490685,
+  "universal_credit": 39901915135.473785,
+  "vat": 219622883998.86896,
+  "capital_gains_tax": 24243246083.18426,
+  "household_net_income": 1789573611412.6536,
+  "gov_tax": 1048524559951.2327,
+  "gov_spending": 485677327428.61584
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/obr_measures/pt_lpl_ss2022_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/obr_measures/pt_lpl_ss2022_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..a3c94c9
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/obr_measures/pt_lpl_ss2022_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
+{
+ "key": "pt_lpl_ss2022",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "measure_reversed": "NI PT & LPL alignment to PA (SS2022) \u2014 REVERSED by the \u00a32,690 announcement-vintage gap (LOW CONFIDENCE: counterfactual uprating path unknowable parametrically)",
+ "pe_construction": "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold: 241.73 -> 190.00/wk; gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit: 12570.0 -> 9880.0",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 189.99923076923076}, \"gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 9880.0}}",
+ "baseline_for_delta": "results/uk/baseline_2026.json",
+ "conventions": [
+  "PE measure effect = MINUS the (this - baseline) delta",
+  "OBR costing scored vs OBR announcement-time baseline w/ behavioural adjustments; this is the parametric content on the certified 2026 world (baseline-vintage delta, named)",
+  "PE calendar-year vs OBR fiscal-year (named)"
+ ],
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
+  "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
+  "data_build_model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+  "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+ },
+ "aggregates_gbp": {
+  "income_tax": 421891913533.19946,
+  "national_insurance": 67284003408.16528,
+  "ni_employer": 185481157065.2179,
+  "child_benefit": 17434702263.490685,
+  "universal_credit": 39991711926.14007,
+  "vat": 219622883998.86896,
+  "capital_gains_tax": 24243246083.18426,
+  "household_net_income": 1785554498769.4727,
+  "gov_tax": 1052637624919.406,
+  "gov_spending": 485771195086.36804
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/obr_measures_collation.csv b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/obr_measures_collation.csv
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..5c83198
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/obr_measures_collation.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
+key,status,pe_measure_effect_gbp,pe_gov_tax_effect_gbp,obr_value_gbp,obr_period,abs_ratio,abs_ratio_head_only,heads,confidence,n_candidate_rows,conventions
+hicbc_sb2024,computed,-1720629444.0709229,-1720629281.512207,-250000000.0,2026,6.882517126048828,6.8825177762836915,income_tax,high,3,"reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) — baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual"
+ee_ni_p2,computed,-12070073647.428864,-12070071976.065552,-10465234281.795147,2026,1.153349428312571,1.1533495880188198,national_insurance,high,18,"reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) — baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual"
+ee_ni_p4,computed,-24142042648.760254,-24142043583.14258,-9068607177.111378,2026,2.6621556223182377,2.662155519283416,national_insurance,high; AS2023 leg ≈ p4−p2 differencing,12,"reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) — baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual"
+class4_p3,computed,-1755439439.4202042,-1755438977.9938965,-348009097.91964304,2026,5.044233005653306,5.044234331556307,national_insurance,stack (AS2023 1p + SB2024 2p); external row is the 1p leg — compare via differencing vs tranche-1 class4_1pp,12,"reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) — baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual"
+class2_reinstate,computed,-563027614.2353287,-563027552.8198242,-403140457.34836805,2026,1.3966039442508547,1.3966040965935513,national_insurance,high,12,"reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) — baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual"
+employer_ab2024,computed,26014010206.312836,16240084103.596191,23714722782.217613,2026,0.6848102021995278,1.096956116468683,ni_employer,high; wage-incidence spillover onto IT/employee NI recorded via gov_tax,9,"reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) — baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual"
+art_as2022,computed,1787263536.0213013,1787265489.5186768,783448087.0201031,2026,2.2812813243525296,2.2812788308913703,income_tax,high,9,"reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) — baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual"
+div_ab2021,computed,619524446.258728,618983960.5861816,868649888.8100487,2026,0.712581637964772,0.7132038514474525,income_tax,delta-on-current (allowance changed since 2021 — vintage note),10,"reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) — baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual"
+cgt_ab2024,computed,2832564125.7933006,2832564748.686035,1292432021.691635,2026,2.191654726241273,2.19165424428731,capital_gains_tax,high; PE static (no forestalling/behavioral),9,"reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) — baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual"
+pt_lpl_ss2022,computed,-5833696943.071625,-5833694249.685547,-4702119816.05516,2026,1.2406519778093874,1.240652550611907,national_insurance,"LOW (announcement-vintage £2,690 gap; counterfactual uprating path unknowable)",10,"reversal on certified 2026 world vs OBR announcement-baseline costing (behavioural-adjusted, FY) — baseline-vintage delta named; PE CY static accrual"
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/pa_100_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/pa_100_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..0745752
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/pa_100_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+{
+ "reform_key": "pa_100",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "reform_hint": "Change personal allowance by \u00a3100",
+ "pe_construction": "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount: 12570 -> 12670",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 12670}}",
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
+  "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
+  "data_build_model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+  "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+ },
+ "aggregates_gbp": {
+  "income_tax": 420992883968.124,
+  "national_insurance": 61450306465.09366,
+  "ni_employer": 185481157065.2179,
+  "child_benefit": 17434702263.490685,
+  "universal_credit": 39878372967.85101,
+  "vat": 219622883998.86896,
+  "household_net_income": 1792163940521.782,
+  "gov_tax": 1045903461087.4154,
+  "gov_spending": 485648845473.3286
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/pa_10pct_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/pa_10pct_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..b9108c1
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/pa_10pct_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+{
+ "reform_key": "pa_10pct",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "reform_hint": "Change personal allowance by 10%",
+ "pe_construction": "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount: 12570 -> 13827.000000000002",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 13827.000000000002}}",
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
+  "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
+  "data_build_model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+  "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+ },
+ "aggregates_gbp": {
+  "income_tax": 410743690227.0401,
+  "national_insurance": 61450306465.09366,
+  "ni_employer": 185481157065.2179,
+  "child_benefit": 17434702263.490685,
+  "universal_credit": 39773310016.436806,
+  "vat": 219622883998.86896,
+  "household_net_income": 1802270915580.4868,
+  "gov_tax": 1035638549541.2341,
+  "gov_spending": 485501146991.8742
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/pa_1pct_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/pa_1pct_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..1270a61
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/pa_1pct_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+{
+ "reform_key": "pa_1pct",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "reform_hint": "Change personal allowance by 1%",
+ "pe_construction": "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount: 12570 -> 12695.7",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 12695.7}}",
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
+  "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
+  "data_build_model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+  "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+ },
+ "aggregates_gbp": {
+  "income_tax": 420760496345.935,
+  "national_insurance": 61450306465.09366,
+  "ni_employer": 185481157065.2179,
+  "child_benefit": 17434702263.490685,
+  "universal_credit": 39875962204.15295,
+  "vat": 219622883998.86896,
+  "household_net_income": 1792393053013.8193,
+  "gov_tax": 1045670700930.5881,
+  "gov_spending": 485645198654.7175
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/psa_100_50_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/psa_100_50_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..067fc45
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/psa_100_50_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+{
+ "reform_key": "psa_100_50",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "reform_hint": "Change Savings allowance by \u00a3100 for BR and \u00a350 for HR taxpayers",
+ "pe_construction": "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_savings_allowance.basic: 1000 -> 1100; gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_savings_allowance.higher: 500 -> 550",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_savings_allowance.basic\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 1100}, \"gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_savings_allowance.higher\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 550}}",
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
+  "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
+  "data_build_model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+  "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+ },
+ "aggregates_gbp": {
+  "income_tax": 421822237856.2041,
+  "national_insurance": 61450306465.09366,
+  "ni_employer": 185481157065.2179,
+  "child_benefit": 17434702263.490685,
+  "universal_credit": 39887818603.1317,
+  "vat": 219622883998.86896,
+  "household_net_income": 1791349819437.8667,
+  "gov_tax": 1046734255058.1206,
+  "gov_spending": 485663230900.0288
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/srl_100_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/srl_100_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..b60e0d4
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/srl_100_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+{
+ "reform_key": "srl_100",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "reform_hint": "Change starting rate limit for savings income by \u00a3100",
+ "pe_construction": "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings_starter_rate.allowance: 5000 -> 5100",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings_starter_rate.allowance\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 5100}}",
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
+  "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
+  "data_build_model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+  "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+ },
+ "aggregates_gbp": {
+  "income_tax": 421858524825.77234,
+  "national_insurance": 61450306465.09366,
+  "ni_employer": 185481157065.2179,
+  "child_benefit": 17434702263.490685,
+  "universal_credit": 39887838277.66961,
+  "vat": 219622883998.86896,
+  "household_net_income": 1791313552250.722,
+  "gov_tax": 1046770541970.1005,
+  "gov_spending": 485663250574.56665
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/t2_collation.csv b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/t2_collation.csv
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..e83a428
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/t2_collation.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+key,status,hmrc_hint,pe_delta_gbp,pe_gov_tax_delta_gbp,hmrc_fy2026_27,hmrc_fy2027_28,abs_ratio_vs_fy26,abs_ratio_vs_fy27,heads,construction,conventions
+pa_1pct,computed,Change personal allowance by 1%,-1131417187.2644653,-1133229739.1323242,1000000000.0,1200000000.0,1.1314171872644654,0.9428476560537211,income_tax,gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount: 12570 -> 12695.7,PE CY2026 static accrual vs HMRC projected FY direct effects (first-year cash vs fuller-year; TIE/behavioral in HMRC reckoner per their methodology notes); |magnitude| ratios
+pa_10pct,computed,Change personal allowance by 10%,-11148223306.159363,-11165381128.486328,10000000000.0,11650000000.0,1.1148223306159364,0.9569290391553101,income_tax,gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount: 12570 -> 13827.000000000002,PE CY2026 static accrual vs HMRC projected FY direct effects (first-year cash vs fuller-year; TIE/behavioral in HMRC reckoner per their methodology notes); |magnitude| ratios
+brl_1pct,computed,Change basic rate limit by 1%,-725046338.0097046,-733636703.8398438,495000000.0,665000000.0,1.464740076787282,1.0902952451273753,income_tax,gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold: 37700 -> 38077.0,PE CY2026 static accrual vs HMRC projected FY direct effects (first-year cash vs fuller-year; TIE/behavioral in HMRC reckoner per their methodology notes); |magnitude| ratios
+brl_10pct,computed,Increase basic rate limit by 10% (cost),-6935879147.342651,-7020792835.180176,4600000000.0,6250000000.0,1.507799814639707,1.1097406635748241,income_tax,gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold: 37700 -> 41470.0,PE CY2026 static accrual vs HMRC projected FY direct effects (first-year cash vs fuller-year; TIE/behavioral in HMRC reckoner per their methodology notes); |magnitude| ratios
+srl_100,computed,Change starting rate limit for savings income by £100,-33388707.427124023,-33388699.619995117,,5000000.0,,6.6777414854248045,income_tax,gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings_starter_rate.allowance: 5000 -> 5100,PE CY2026 static accrual vs HMRC projected FY direct effects (first-year cash vs fuller-year; TIE/behavioral in HMRC reckoner per their methodology notes); |magnitude| ratios
+psa_100_50,computed,Change Savings allowance by £100 for BR and £50 for HR taxpayers,-69675676.99536133,-69675611.59985352,0.0,30000000.0,,2.322522566512044,income_tax,gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_savings_allowance.basic: 1000 -> 1100; gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_savings_allowance.higher: 500 -> 550,PE CY2026 static accrual vs HMRC projected FY direct effects (first-year cash vs fuller-year; TIE/behavioral in HMRC reckoner per their methodology notes); |magnitude| ratios
+dividend_allowance_100,computed,Change dividend allowance by £100,-52777493.560424805,-52777526.802978516,0.0,70000000.0,,0.7539641937203544,income_tax,gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.dividend_allowance: 500 -> 600,PE CY2026 static accrual vs HMRC projected FY direct effects (first-year cash vs fuller-year; TIE/behavioral in HMRC reckoner per their methodology notes); |magnitude| ratios
+ni_pt_2pw,computed,Change employee entry threshold by £2 per week,-202893958.81115723,-202895809.91210938,210000000.0,230000000.0,0.9661617086245582,0.8821476470050315,national_insurance,gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold: 241.73 -> 243.73,PE CY2026 static accrual vs HMRC projected FY direct effects (first-year cash vs fuller-year; TIE/behavioral in HMRC reckoner per their methodology notes); |magnitude| ratios
+ni_st_2pw,computed,Change employer threshold by £2 per week,-356685195.3192749,-239798822.20703125,420000000.0,430000000.0,0.8492504650458926,0.8295004542308718,ni_employer,gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold: 96 -> 98,PE CY2026 static accrual vs HMRC projected FY direct effects (first-year cash vs fuller-year; TIE/behavioral in HMRC reckoner per their methodology notes); |magnitude| ratios
+ni_uel_10pw,computed,Change upper earnings limit by £10 per week,248033861.83112335,248034104.94433594,220000000.0,220000000.0,1.1274266446869243,1.1274266446869243,national_insurance,gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.upper_earnings_limit: 966.73 -> 976.73,PE CY2026 static accrual vs HMRC projected FY direct effects (first-year cash vs fuller-year; TIE/behavioral in HMRC reckoner per their methodology notes); |magnitude| ratios
+ni_lpl_104,computed,Change lower profits limit by £104 per year,-17503727.481391907,-17503377.587158203,15000000.0,15000000.0,1.1669151654261272,1.1669151654261272,national_insurance,gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit: 12570 -> 12674,PE CY2026 static accrual vs HMRC projected FY direct effects (first-year cash vs fuller-year; TIE/behavioral in HMRC reckoner per their methodology notes); |magnitude| ratios
+ni_upl_520,computed,Change upper profits limit by £520 per year,15204671.735198975,15204844.950927734,10000000.0,10000000.0,1.5204671735198974,1.5204671735198974,national_insurance,gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit: 50270 -> 50790,PE CY2026 static accrual vs HMRC projected FY direct effects (first-year cash vs fuller-year; TIE/behavioral in HMRC reckoner per their methodology notes); |magnitude| ratios
+cb_additional_1pw,computed,Increase subsequent child rate by £1 per week (cost),307891828.10876465,71130801.75634766,230000000.0,240000000.0,1.3386601222120202,1.2828826171198526,child_benefit,gov.hmrc.child_benefit.amount.additional: 17.9 -> 18.9,PE CY2026 static accrual vs HMRC projected FY direct effects (first-year cash vs fuller-year; TIE/behavioral in HMRC reckoner per their methodology notes); |magnitude| ratios
+employee_additional_1pp,computed,Change Class 1 employee additional rate by 1 percentage point,4391879294.86554,4391875901.453613,2000000000.0,2000000000.0,2.1959396474327697,2.1959396474327697,national_insurance,gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.additional: 0.02 -> 0.03,PE CY2026 static accrual vs HMRC projected FY direct effects (first-year cash vs fuller-year; TIE/behavioral in HMRC reckoner per their methodology notes); |magnitude| ratios
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/two_child_fixed_line_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/two_child_fixed_line_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..3eeb74c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/two_child_fixed_line_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,338 @@
+{
+ "reform_key": "two_child_limit_removal_fixed_line",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "takeup_mode": "calibrated",
+ "worlds": {
+  "with_limit": {
+   "world": "with_limit",
+   "year": 2026,
+   "construction": "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count: inf -> 2 (reinstate; born-pre-2017 exemption active)",
+   "reform_json": "{\"gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 2}}",
+   "hbai_dependent_child_proxy": "is_child_or_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit: under-16 OR 16-19 qualifying young person in full-time non-advanced education, excl. looked-after children (closest installed analogue of the HBAI dependent-child definition)",
+   "bundle": {
+    "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+    "country_id": "uk",
+    "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+    "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+    "model_version": "2.89.2",
+    "data_package": "populace-data",
+    "data_version": "0.1.0",
+    "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+    "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
+    "data_build_model_version": "2.89.2",
+    "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+    "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+    "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+    "certified_by": "None",
+    "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+    "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+    "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+   },
+   "aggregates_gbp": {
+    "universal_credit": 38783589984.86714,
+    "household_net_income": 1790266784216.2012,
+    "gov_spending": 484560539496.0421
+   }
+  },
+  "without_limit": {
+   "world": "without_limit",
+   "year": 2026,
+   "construction": "baseline (limit abolished in current law)",
+   "reform_json": "baseline",
+   "hbai_dependent_child_proxy": "is_child_or_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit: under-16 OR 16-19 qualifying young person in full-time non-advanced education, excl. looked-after children (closest installed analogue of the HBAI dependent-child definition)",
+   "bundle": {
+    "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+    "country_id": "uk",
+    "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+    "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+    "model_version": "2.89.2",
+    "data_package": "populace-data",
+    "data_version": "0.1.0",
+    "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+    "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
+    "data_build_model_version": "2.89.2",
+    "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+    "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+    "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+    "certified_by": "None",
+    "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+    "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+    "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+   },
+   "aggregates_gbp": {
+    "universal_credit": 39887838277.66961,
+    "household_net_income": 1791280163555.2764,
+    "gov_spending": 485663250574.56665
+   }
+  }
+ },
+ "median_equiv_hbai_ahc_gbp_year": {
+  "with_limit": {
+   "person": 34191.88671875,
+   "household": 35570.34765625
+  },
+  "without_limit": {
+   "person": 34191.88671875,
+   "household": 35570.34765625
+  }
+ },
+ "median_weighting_primary": "person",
+ "median_weighting_note": "HBAI convention ranks individuals (person-weighted); pe-uk's in_relative_poverty_ahc uses household-weighted medians \u2014 both recorded, person-weighted used for all lines here",
+ "results": {
+  "floating": {
+   "with_limit": {
+    "line_gbp_year": 20515.13203125,
+    "all": {
+     "rate": 0.23298984026069908,
+     "count": 16294514.372394413,
+     "population": 69936587.59610294
+    },
+    "u16": {
+     "rate": 0.3341678225294723,
+     "count": 4521835.423247635,
+     "population": 13531630.271938667
+    },
+    "u18": {
+     "rate": 0.3364532579020019,
+     "count": 5057541.576392353,
+     "population": 15031929.272818789
+    },
+    "hbai_dep": {
+     "rate": 0.33582958572177674,
+     "count": 5075353.906113207,
+     "population": 15112884.992562756
+    }
+   },
+   "without_limit": {
+    "line_gbp_year": 20515.13203125,
+    "all": {
+     "rate": 0.22778059178483795,
+     "count": 15930197.310052484,
+     "population": 69936587.59610294
+    },
+    "u16": {
+     "rate": 0.31680746914383723,
+     "count": 4286921.539843023,
+     "population": 13531630.271938667
+    },
+    "u18": {
+     "rate": 0.32028047932865245,
+     "count": 4814433.512732804,
+     "population": 15031929.272818789
+    },
+    "hbai_dep": {
+     "rate": 0.3197434404371944,
+     "count": 4832245.842453659,
+     "population": 15112884.992562756
+    }
+   },
+   "removal_effect": {
+    "all": {
+     "count_change": -364317.0623419285,
+     "rate_change_pp": -0.5209248475861128
+    },
+    "u16": {
+     "count_change": -234913.88340461254,
+     "rate_change_pp": -1.7360353385635074
+    },
+    "u18": {
+     "count_change": -243108.06365954876,
+     "rate_change_pp": -1.6172778573349478
+    },
+    "hbai_dep": {
+     "count_change": -243108.06365954876,
+     "rate_change_pp": -1.6086145284582354
+    }
+   }
+  },
+  "fixed_with_limit": {
+   "with_limit": {
+    "line_gbp_year": 20515.13203125,
+    "all": {
+     "rate": 0.23298984026069908,
+     "count": 16294514.372394413,
+     "population": 69936587.59610294
+    },
+    "u16": {
+     "rate": 0.3341678225294723,
+     "count": 4521835.423247635,
+     "population": 13531630.271938667
+    },
+    "u18": {
+     "rate": 0.3364532579020019,
+     "count": 5057541.576392353,
+     "population": 15031929.272818789
+    },
+    "hbai_dep": {
+     "rate": 0.33582958572177674,
+     "count": 5075353.906113207,
+     "population": 15112884.992562756
+    }
+   },
+   "without_limit": {
+    "line_gbp_year": 20515.13203125,
+    "all": {
+     "rate": 0.22778059178483795,
+     "count": 15930197.310052484,
+     "population": 69936587.59610294
+    },
+    "u16": {
+     "rate": 0.31680746914383723,
+     "count": 4286921.539843023,
+     "population": 13531630.271938667
+    },
+    "u18": {
+     "rate": 0.32028047932865245,
+     "count": 4814433.512732804,
+     "population": 15031929.272818789
+    },
+    "hbai_dep": {
+     "rate": 0.3197434404371944,
+     "count": 4832245.842453659,
+     "population": 15112884.992562756
+    }
+   },
+   "removal_effect": {
+    "all": {
+     "count_change": -364317.0623419285,
+     "rate_change_pp": -0.5209248475861128
+    },
+    "u16": {
+     "count_change": -234913.88340461254,
+     "rate_change_pp": -1.7360353385635074
+    },
+    "u18": {
+     "count_change": -243108.06365954876,
+     "rate_change_pp": -1.6172778573349478
+    },
+    "hbai_dep": {
+     "count_change": -243108.06365954876,
+     "rate_change_pp": -1.6086145284582354
+    }
+   }
+  },
+  "fixed_without_limit": {
+   "with_limit": {
+    "line_gbp_year": 20515.13203125,
+    "all": {
+     "rate": 0.23298984026069908,
+     "count": 16294514.372394413,
+     "population": 69936587.59610294
+    },
+    "u16": {
+     "rate": 0.3341678225294723,
+     "count": 4521835.423247635,
+     "population": 13531630.271938667
+    },
+    "u18": {
+     "rate": 0.3364532579020019,
+     "count": 5057541.576392353,
+     "population": 15031929.272818789
+    },
+    "hbai_dep": {
+     "rate": 0.33582958572177674,
+     "count": 5075353.906113207,
+     "population": 15112884.992562756
+    }
+   },
+   "without_limit": {
+    "line_gbp_year": 20515.13203125,
+    "all": {
+     "rate": 0.22778059178483795,
+     "count": 15930197.310052484,
+     "population": 69936587.59610294
+    },
+    "u16": {
+     "rate": 0.31680746914383723,
+     "count": 4286921.539843023,
+     "population": 13531630.271938667
+    },
+    "u18": {
+     "rate": 0.32028047932865245,
+     "count": 4814433.512732804,
+     "population": 15031929.272818789
+    },
+    "hbai_dep": {
+     "rate": 0.3197434404371944,
+     "count": 4832245.842453659,
+     "population": 15112884.992562756
+    }
+   },
+   "removal_effect": {
+    "all": {
+     "count_change": -364317.0623419285,
+     "rate_change_pp": -0.5209248475861128
+    },
+    "u16": {
+     "count_change": -234913.88340461254,
+     "rate_change_pp": -1.7360353385635074
+    },
+    "u18": {
+     "count_change": -243108.06365954876,
+     "rate_change_pp": -1.6172778573349478
+    },
+    "hbai_dep": {
+     "count_change": -243108.06365954876,
+     "rate_change_pp": -1.6086145284582354
+    }
+   }
+  }
+ },
+ "absolute_ahc_continuity_check": {
+  "with_limit": {
+   "all": 13308574.643841207,
+   "u16": 3823821.647847593,
+   "u18": 4274117.985204399,
+   "hbai_dep": 4282418.631839693
+  },
+  "without_limit": {
+   "all": 13028998.553302944,
+   "u16": 3642525.343844831,
+   "u18": 4087835.8398367763,
+   "hbai_dep": 4094797.2934226394
+  },
+  "removal_count_change": {
+   "all": -279576.0905382633,
+   "u16": -181296.30400276184,
+   "u18": -186282.14536762238,
+   "hbai_dep": -187621.33841705322
+  }
+ },
+ "uc_cost_of_removal_gbp": 1104248292.8024673,
+ "external_pentagon": {
+  "_discipline": "legs are NOT same-concept; per-leg basis verbatim; no win/replication language",
+  "ifs": {
+   "value": -540000,
+   "basis": "two-child-limit removal alone, steady-state (fully rolled-in), fixed-line rel AHC"
+  },
+  "govt_hmt": {
+   "value": -450000,
+   "basis": "'taking 450,000 children out of poverty' embedded in HMT B2025 scorecard two-child-limit measure name; horizon per govt materials (~2029-30)"
+  },
+  "resolution_foundation": {
+   "value": -420000,
+   "basis": "LSO 2026: year-over-year child-poverty fall 33%->30% 2025-26 to 2026-27, Budget-package-driven (2CL-dominated), fixed-line rel AHC, IPPR tax-benefit model; NOT a pure 2CL-only leg"
+  },
+  "ukmod_cempa_3_26": {
+   "value_children_2026": -13193,
+   "basis": "NET Autumn-Budget package (freezes + 2CL removal + WFA + PC cuts) child fixed-AHC count change FY2026/27 \u2014 freezes offset the 2CL gain; NOT comparable as 2CL-only; per-measure split not in staged rows"
+  },
+  "pe": {
+   "basis": "2CL removal alone, 2026, actual partially-rolled-in law (born<2017 exempt), fixed baseline line (moot: line static), HBAI-dep-proxy children, calibrated take-up",
+   "comparable_leg": "fixed_with_limit removal_effect hbai_dep"
+  }
+ },
+ "divergence_hypotheses_at_compute": [
+  "roll_in_vintage: PE 2026 grandfathering (born<2017 exempt) = partially rolled-in law; IFS -540k is steady-state -> PE expected BELOW IFS magnitude",
+  "data_lineage: populace_uk_2023 (FRS 2023-24 base, calibrated) vs IFS/RF FRS vintages+own calibrations",
+  "takeup: PE UC take-up assumptions vs RF's UC 80% / IFS TAXBEN full-entitlement basis (registry axis)",
+  "median_construction: person- vs household-weighted median moves the line (both computed)",
+  "child_definition: hbai_dep proxy lacks HBAI marital/living-arrangement conditions (16-19 slice only)"
+ ]
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/two_child_fixed_line_fulltakeup_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/two_child_fixed_line_fulltakeup_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..f96a4a5
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/two_child_fixed_line_fulltakeup_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,360 @@
+{
+ "reform_key": "two_child_limit_removal_fixed_line",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "takeup_mode": "fulltakeup",
+ "worlds": {
+  "with_limit": {
+   "world": "with_limit",
+   "year": 2026,
+   "mode": "fulltakeup",
+   "forced_flags": [
+    "would_claim_uc",
+    "would_claim_housing_benefit",
+    "would_claim_child_benefit",
+    "would_claim_council_tax_reduction",
+    "would_claim_CTC",
+    "would_claim_WTC",
+    "would_claim_IS",
+    "claims_all_entitled_benefits"
+   ],
+   "construction": "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count: inf -> 2 (reinstate; born-pre-2017 exemption active)",
+   "reform_json": "{\"gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 2}}",
+   "hbai_dependent_child_proxy": "is_child_or_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit: under-16 OR 16-19 qualifying young person in full-time non-advanced education, excl. looked-after children (closest installed analogue of the HBAI dependent-child definition)",
+   "bundle": {
+    "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+    "country_id": "uk",
+    "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+    "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+    "model_version": "2.89.2",
+    "data_package": "populace-data",
+    "data_version": "0.1.0",
+    "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+    "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
+    "data_build_model_version": "2.89.2",
+    "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+    "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+    "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+    "certified_by": "None",
+    "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+    "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+    "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+   },
+   "aggregates_gbp": {
+    "universal_credit": 53429818141.101036,
+    "household_net_income": 1803220878970.0093,
+    "gov_spending": 497880464939.9005
+   }
+  },
+  "without_limit": {
+   "world": "without_limit",
+   "year": 2026,
+   "mode": "fulltakeup",
+   "forced_flags": [
+    "would_claim_uc",
+    "would_claim_housing_benefit",
+    "would_claim_child_benefit",
+    "would_claim_council_tax_reduction",
+    "would_claim_CTC",
+    "would_claim_WTC",
+    "would_claim_IS",
+    "claims_all_entitled_benefits"
+   ],
+   "construction": "baseline (limit abolished in current law)",
+   "reform_json": "baseline",
+   "hbai_dependent_child_proxy": "is_child_or_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit: under-16 OR 16-19 qualifying young person in full-time non-advanced education, excl. looked-after children (closest installed analogue of the HBAI dependent-child definition)",
+   "bundle": {
+    "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+    "country_id": "uk",
+    "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+    "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+    "model_version": "2.89.2",
+    "data_package": "populace-data",
+    "data_version": "0.1.0",
+    "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+    "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
+    "data_build_model_version": "2.89.2",
+    "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+    "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+    "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+    "certified_by": "None",
+    "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+    "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+    "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+    "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+   },
+   "aggregates_gbp": {
+    "universal_credit": 55279919145.339645,
+    "household_net_income": 1804948205172.6,
+    "gov_spending": 499729028736.36316
+   }
+  }
+ },
+ "median_equiv_hbai_ahc_gbp_year": {
+  "with_limit": {
+   "person": 34427.55078125,
+   "household": 35764.1796875
+  },
+  "without_limit": {
+   "person": 34427.55078125,
+   "household": 35764.1796875
+  }
+ },
+ "median_weighting_primary": "person",
+ "median_weighting_note": "HBAI convention ranks individuals (person-weighted); pe-uk's in_relative_poverty_ahc uses household-weighted medians \u2014 both recorded, person-weighted used for all lines here",
+ "results": {
+  "floating": {
+   "with_limit": {
+    "line_gbp_year": 20656.53046875,
+    "all": {
+     "rate": 0.22032138557925557,
+     "count": 15408525.881858379,
+     "population": 69936587.59610294
+    },
+    "u16": {
+     "rate": 0.3100496618050528,
+     "count": 4195477.389485598,
+     "population": 13531630.271938667
+    },
+    "u18": {
+     "rate": 0.31366318749573424,
+     "count": 4714962.849922776,
+     "population": 15031929.272818789
+    },
+    "hbai_dep": {
+     "rate": 0.31302277508584303,
+     "count": 4730677.199925184,
+     "population": 15112884.992562756
+    }
+   },
+   "without_limit": {
+    "line_gbp_year": 20656.53046875,
+    "all": {
+     "rate": 0.21438922546870368,
+     "count": 14993650.846652657,
+     "population": 69936587.59610294
+    },
+    "u16": {
+     "rate": 0.2908677068310521,
+     "count": 3935914.266884446,
+     "population": 13531630.271938667
+    },
+    "u18": {
+     "rate": 0.2955064650136516,
+     "count": 4442032.281745911,
+     "population": 15031929.272818789
+    },
+    "hbai_dep": {
+     "rate": 0.29467505544873185,
+     "count": 4453390.2231737375,
+     "population": 15112884.992562756
+    }
+   },
+   "removal_effect": {
+    "all": {
+     "count_change": -414875.03520572186,
+     "rate_change_pp": -0.5932160110551893
+    },
+    "u16": {
+     "count_change": -259563.12260115147,
+     "rate_change_pp": -1.918195497400066
+    },
+    "u18": {
+     "count_change": -272930.5681768656,
+     "rate_change_pp": -1.8156722482082666
+    },
+    "hbai_dep": {
+     "count_change": -277286.9767514467,
+     "rate_change_pp": -1.8347719637111182
+    }
+   }
+  },
+  "fixed_with_limit": {
+   "with_limit": {
+    "line_gbp_year": 20656.53046875,
+    "all": {
+     "rate": 0.22032138557925557,
+     "count": 15408525.881858379,
+     "population": 69936587.59610294
+    },
+    "u16": {
+     "rate": 0.3100496618050528,
+     "count": 4195477.389485598,
+     "population": 13531630.271938667
+    },
+    "u18": {
+     "rate": 0.31366318749573424,
+     "count": 4714962.849922776,
+     "population": 15031929.272818789
+    },
+    "hbai_dep": {
+     "rate": 0.31302277508584303,
+     "count": 4730677.199925184,
+     "population": 15112884.992562756
+    }
+   },
+   "without_limit": {
+    "line_gbp_year": 20656.53046875,
+    "all": {
+     "rate": 0.21438922546870368,
+     "count": 14993650.846652657,
+     "population": 69936587.59610294
+    },
+    "u16": {
+     "rate": 0.2908677068310521,
+     "count": 3935914.266884446,
+     "population": 13531630.271938667
+    },
+    "u18": {
+     "rate": 0.2955064650136516,
+     "count": 4442032.281745911,
+     "population": 15031929.272818789
+    },
+    "hbai_dep": {
+     "rate": 0.29467505544873185,
+     "count": 4453390.2231737375,
+     "population": 15112884.992562756
+    }
+   },
+   "removal_effect": {
+    "all": {
+     "count_change": -414875.03520572186,
+     "rate_change_pp": -0.5932160110551893
+    },
+    "u16": {
+     "count_change": -259563.12260115147,
+     "rate_change_pp": -1.918195497400066
+    },
+    "u18": {
+     "count_change": -272930.5681768656,
+     "rate_change_pp": -1.8156722482082666
+    },
+    "hbai_dep": {
+     "count_change": -277286.9767514467,
+     "rate_change_pp": -1.8347719637111182
+    }
+   }
+  },
+  "fixed_without_limit": {
+   "with_limit": {
+    "line_gbp_year": 20656.53046875,
+    "all": {
+     "rate": 0.22032138557925557,
+     "count": 15408525.881858379,
+     "population": 69936587.59610294
+    },
+    "u16": {
+     "rate": 0.3100496618050528,
+     "count": 4195477.389485598,
+     "population": 13531630.271938667
+    },
+    "u18": {
+     "rate": 0.31366318749573424,
+     "count": 4714962.849922776,
+     "population": 15031929.272818789
+    },
+    "hbai_dep": {
+     "rate": 0.31302277508584303,
+     "count": 4730677.199925184,
+     "population": 15112884.992562756
+    }
+   },
+   "without_limit": {
+    "line_gbp_year": 20656.53046875,
+    "all": {
+     "rate": 0.21438922546870368,
+     "count": 14993650.846652657,
+     "population": 69936587.59610294
+    },
+    "u16": {
+     "rate": 0.2908677068310521,
+     "count": 3935914.266884446,
+     "population": 13531630.271938667
+    },
+    "u18": {
+     "rate": 0.2955064650136516,
+     "count": 4442032.281745911,
+     "population": 15031929.272818789
+    },
+    "hbai_dep": {
+     "rate": 0.29467505544873185,
+     "count": 4453390.2231737375,
+     "population": 15112884.992562756
+    }
+   },
+   "removal_effect": {
+    "all": {
+     "count_change": -414875.03520572186,
+     "rate_change_pp": -0.5932160110551893
+    },
+    "u16": {
+     "count_change": -259563.12260115147,
+     "rate_change_pp": -1.918195497400066
+    },
+    "u18": {
+     "count_change": -272930.5681768656,
+     "rate_change_pp": -1.8156722482082666
+    },
+    "hbai_dep": {
+     "count_change": -277286.9767514467,
+     "rate_change_pp": -1.8347719637111182
+    }
+   }
+  }
+ },
+ "absolute_ahc_continuity_check": {
+  "with_limit": {
+   "all": 12406764.190788925,
+   "u16": 3453040.589262724,
+   "u18": 3882981.4342074394,
+   "hbai_dep": 3887640.5123000145
+  },
+  "without_limit": {
+   "all": 11985518.698836744,
+   "u16": 3187144.298489094,
+   "u18": 3604883.245787859,
+   "hbai_dep": 3607718.511481762
+  },
+  "removal_count_change": {
+   "all": -421245.49195218086,
+   "u16": -265896.29077363014,
+   "u18": -278098.18841958046,
+   "hbai_dep": -279922.00081825256
+  }
+ },
+ "uc_cost_of_removal_gbp": 1850101004.2386093,
+ "external_pentagon": {
+  "_discipline": "legs are NOT same-concept; per-leg basis verbatim; no win/replication language",
+  "ifs": {
+   "value": -540000,
+   "basis": "two-child-limit removal alone, steady-state (fully rolled-in), fixed-line rel AHC"
+  },
+  "govt_hmt": {
+   "value": -450000,
+   "basis": "'taking 450,000 children out of poverty' embedded in HMT B2025 scorecard two-child-limit measure name; horizon per govt materials (~2029-30)"
+  },
+  "resolution_foundation": {
+   "value": -420000,
+   "basis": "LSO 2026: year-over-year child-poverty fall 33%->30% 2025-26 to 2026-27, Budget-package-driven (2CL-dominated), fixed-line rel AHC, IPPR tax-benefit model; NOT a pure 2CL-only leg"
+  },
+  "ukmod_cempa_3_26": {
+   "value_children_2026": -13193,
+   "basis": "NET Autumn-Budget package (freezes + 2CL removal + WFA + PC cuts) child fixed-AHC count change FY2026/27 \u2014 freezes offset the 2CL gain; NOT comparable as 2CL-only; per-measure split not in staged rows"
+  },
+  "pe": {
+   "basis": "2CL removal alone, 2026, actual partially-rolled-in law (born<2017 exempt), fixed baseline line (moot: line static), HBAI-dep-proxy children, calibrated take-up",
+   "comparable_leg": "fixed_with_limit removal_effect hbai_dep"
+  }
+ },
+ "divergence_hypotheses_at_compute": [
+  "roll_in_vintage: PE 2026 grandfathering (born<2017 exempt) = partially rolled-in law; IFS -540k is steady-state -> PE expected BELOW IFS magnitude",
+  "data_lineage: populace_uk_2023 (FRS 2023-24 base, calibrated) vs IFS/RF FRS vintages+own calibrations",
+  "takeup: PE UC take-up assumptions vs RF's UC 80% / IFS TAXBEN full-entitlement basis (registry axis)",
+  "median_construction: person- vs household-weighted median moves the line (both computed)",
+  "child_definition: hbai_dep proxy lacks HBAI marital/living-arrangement conditions (16-19 slice only)"
+ ]
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/two_child_limit_removal_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/two_child_limit_removal_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..a1ce08e
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/two_child_limit_removal_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
+{
+ "reform_key": "two_child_limit_removal",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "reform_hint": "Remove the UC two-child limit",
+ "pe_construction": "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count: inf -> inf",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": Infinity}}",
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
+  "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
+  "data_build_model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+  "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+ },
+ "aggregates_gbp": {
+  "income_tax": 421891913533.19946,
+  "national_insurance": 61450306465.09366,
+  "ni_employer": 185481157065.2179,
+  "child_benefit": 17434702263.490685,
+  "universal_credit": 39887838277.66961,
+  "vat": 219622883998.86896,
+  "household_net_income": 1791280163555.2764,
+  "gov_tax": 1046803930669.7205,
+  "gov_spending": 485663250574.56665
+ },
+ "poverty": {
+  "var": "in_poverty_ahc",
+  "rate_all": 0.18629731591349413,
+  "count_all": 13028998.553302944,
+  "rate_child_u16": 0.26918599390042075,
+  "count_child_u16": 3642525.343844831
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/two_child_reinstate_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/two_child_reinstate_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..4f6956f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/two_child_reinstate_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
+{
+ "reform_key": "two_child_reinstate",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "reform_hint": "Reinstate the UC two-child limit (pre-AB2025 counterfactual)",
+ "pe_construction": "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count: inf -> 2",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 2}}",
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
+  "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
+  "data_build_model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+  "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+ },
+ "aggregates_gbp": {
+  "income_tax": 421891913533.19946,
+  "national_insurance": 61450306465.09366,
+  "ni_employer": 185481157065.2179,
+  "child_benefit": 17434702263.490685,
+  "universal_credit": 38783589984.86714,
+  "vat": 219622883998.86896,
+  "household_net_income": 1790266784216.2012,
+  "gov_tax": 1046803930669.7205,
+  "gov_spending": 484560539496.0421
+ },
+ "poverty": {
+  "var": "in_poverty_ahc",
+  "rate_all": 0.19029488142459497,
+  "count_all": 13308574.643841207,
+  "rate_child_u16": 0.28258395854764634,
+  "count_child_u16": 3823821.647847593
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/uk_scorecard_first.csv b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/uk_scorecard_first.csv
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..13474a7
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/uk_scorecard_first.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
+reform,pe_gbp_m,hmrc_gbp_m,ratio,note
+basic_rate_1p,7278,6900,1.05,
+higher_rate_1p,3230,1600,2.02,TIE (milder)
+additional_rate_1p,1869,145,12.89,"TIE: HMRC behavioural, PE static"
+pa_100,-899,-810,1.11,
+employee_ni_1pp,6034,5350,1.13,
+employer_ni_1pp,10661,11150,0.96,pe-uk wage incidence: IT+NI spillover -4450m
+class4_1pp,584,440,1.33,
+cb_first_1pw,-441,-335,1.32,
+vat_1pp,10813,8800,1.23,
+two_child_limit_removal_vs_preAB2025,1104,,,"children lifted 181,296; PE 2026 baseline already abolishes (AB2025 encoded)"
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/uprating_check_april2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/uprating_check_april2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..c5dfee7
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/uprating_check_april2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,144 @@
+{
+ "check": "april_2026_uprating_tree_vs_rf_staged",
+ "date_run": "2026-08-02",
+ "tree_package": "policyengine-uk (installed, .venv-pe)",
+ "windows": {
+  "before": "2025-06-01",
+  "after": "2026-06-01"
+ },
+ "rf_staged_claims": {
+  "inflation_linked_benefits": 0.038,
+  "state_pension_triple_lock_earnings": 0.048,
+  "uc_standard_allowance": 0.062,
+  "uc_standard_allowance_u25": 0.068,
+  "uc_health_element_existing": 0.015,
+  "lha_frozen": 0.0
+ },
+ "tree_changes": {
+  "uc_standard_single_25plus": {
+   "path": "gov.dwp.universal_credit.standard_allowance.amount.SINGLE_OLD",
+   "before": 400.14,
+   "after": 424.9,
+   "pct": 0.061878342580096835
+  },
+  "uc_standard_single_u25": {
+   "path": "gov.dwp.universal_credit.standard_allowance.amount.SINGLE_YOUNG",
+   "before": 316.98,
+   "after": 338.58,
+   "pct": 0.06814310051107308
+  },
+  "uc_standard_couple_25plus": {
+   "path": "gov.dwp.universal_credit.standard_allowance.amount.COUPLE_OLD",
+   "before": 628.1,
+   "after": 666.97,
+   "pct": 0.06188505015124979
+  },
+  "uc_standard_couple_u25": {
+   "path": "gov.dwp.universal_credit.standard_allowance.amount.COUPLE_YOUNG",
+   "before": 497.55,
+   "after": 528.34,
+   "pct": 0.06188322781629996
+  },
+  "uc_child_element": {
+   "path": "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.amount",
+   "before": 292.81,
+   "after": 303.94,
+   "pct": 0.03801099689218268
+  },
+  "child_benefit_eldest": {
+   "path": "gov.hmrc.child_benefit.amount.eldest",
+   "before": 26.05,
+   "after": 27.05,
+   "pct": 0.03838771593090207
+  },
+  "child_benefit_additional": {
+   "path": "gov.hmrc.child_benefit.amount.additional",
+   "before": 17.25,
+   "after": 17.9,
+   "pct": 0.03768115942028971
+  },
+  "state_pension_new": {
+   "path": "gov.dwp.state_pension.new_state_pension.amount",
+   "before": 230.25,
+   "after": 241.3,
+   "pct": 0.0479913137893595
+  },
+  "state_pension_basic": {
+   "path": "gov.dwp.state_pension.basic_state_pension.amount",
+   "before": 176.45,
+   "after": 184.9,
+   "pct": 0.0478889203740438
+  },
+  "uc_lcwra_element": {
+   "path": "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount",
+   "before": 423.27,
+   "after": 217.26,
+   "pct": -0.4867106102487774
+  },
+  "pension_credit_mig_single": {
+   "path": "gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.minimum_guarantee.single",
+   "error": "KeyError: 'single'"
+  }
+ },
+ "notes": [
+  "tree-only check; no sim. Paths that error are recorded verbatim (vocabulary gaps or different parameter layout \u2014 fail loud, no guessing).",
+  "LHA rates are data-driven per BRMA in pe-uk; freeze verification needs the LHA parameter/dataset mechanism \u2014 recorded as follow-up if paths error.",
+  "UC health element AB2025 new/existing split may be structural rather than a single amount parameter; error here means map the encoding first."
+ ],
+ "findings": {
+  "concordant": {
+   "uc_standard_25plus": {
+    "pe": 0.0619,
+    "rf": 0.062
+   },
+   "uc_standard_single_u25": {
+    "pe": 0.0681,
+    "rf": 0.068
+   },
+   "inflation_linked (uc child element)": {
+    "pe": 0.038,
+    "rf": 0.038
+   },
+   "child_benefit": {
+    "pe": "0.0377-0.0384 (5p rounding)",
+    "rf": 0.038
+   },
+   "state_pension_new_and_basic": {
+    "pe": "0.0479-0.0480",
+    "rf": 0.048
+   }
+  },
+  "flags": [
+   {
+    "id": "uc_couple_u25_uprating",
+    "severity": "low",
+    "note": "pe-uk couple-U25 standard allowance +6.19% while single-U25 +6.81%; RF staged a single U25 figure (6.8%). Verify against the DWP 2026-27 rates order which couple-young rate applies."
+   },
+   {
+    "id": "lcwra_halving_applied_to_stock",
+    "severity": "RESOLVED_FALSE_ALARM",
+    "class": "verification_method",
+    "evidence": "parameters/gov/dwp/universal_credit/elements/disabled/amount.yaml: 2026-04-01: 217.26 (=\u00a350/wk) replacing 423.27; variables/.../uc_LCWRA_element.py pays flat p.amount to every uc_limited_capability_for_WRA person \u2014 no new/existing-claimant split anywhere in the disability_element tree.",
+    "external_basis": "RF staged: UC health element EXISTING recipients +1.5% April 2026 (new claimants halved to \u00a350/wk); HMT B2025 measure name: \"Changes to the standard allowance and health element to protect existing claimants\".",
+    "implication": "PE 2026+ understates UC for the existing LCWRA stock by ~\u00a32.5k/yr each; depresses disabled-family incomes in ALL 2026 UK results this session (both two-child worlds share it; deltas mostly net out).",
+    "action": "file upstream policyengine-uk issue; note in every 2026 UK result until fixed.",
+    "resolution": "policyengine_uk/simulation.py applies universal_credit_july_2025_reform.simulation_modifier UNCONDITIONALLY at baseline build (line ~177): per year 2026-29 it stochastically tags post-2025 claimants (2026: 11%, WPI/Trussell shares, rng seed 43) at the new-claimant \u00a3217.26 rate and set_inputs the CPI-protected combined-award value for the existing stock (PR #1567, closed issue #1389). The certified baseline USED IN ALL THIS SESSION'S UK RUNS therefore models the existing-claimant protection.",
+    "method_lesson": "tree+variable-formula reading is insufficient for parameters overlaid by simulation-level modifiers; any tree-only uprating check must cross-check scenarios/ and simulation.py build hooks before flagging.",
+    "residual": "implied existing-claimant health-element growth in the modifier is CPI-combined-minus-uplifted-SA, consistent with RF's +1.5% staged figure; stochastic new-claimant share (11% 2026) is an assumptions-registry row (WPI Economics/Trussell, admin PIP data 2025)."
+   },
+   {
+    "id": "param_step_conventions_mixed",
+    "severity": "info",
+    "note": "standard allowance/state pension carry Jan-1-stepped projected values to 2041; disabled amount.yaml steps at real April dates. Year-on-year (June-June) windows capture both."
+   },
+   {
+    "id": "pension_credit_mig_path",
+    "severity": "info",
+    "note": "gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.minimum_guarantee.single KeyError \u2014 layout differs; map before checking MIG uprating."
+   }
+  ],
+  "assumptions_registry_rows": [
+   "pe-uk UC rebalancing: post-2025-claimant share by year {2026: 0.11, 2027: 0.13, 2028: 0.16, 2029: 0.22} (WPI Economics for Trussell Trust, admin PIP data 2025), stochastic rng seed 43, applied at build"
+  ]
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/vat_1pp_2026.json b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/vat_1pp_2026.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..d351685
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/campaign-20260802/uk_runs/vat_1pp_2026.json
@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+{
+ "reform_key": "vat_1pp",
+ "year": 2026,
+ "reform_hint": "Change standard rate by 1 percentage point (VAT)",
+ "pe_construction": "gov.hmrc.vat.standard_rate: 0.2 -> 0.21000000000000002",
+ "reform_json": "{\"gov.hmrc.vat.standard_rate\": {\"2026-01-01.2028-12-31\": 0.21000000000000002}}",
+ "bundle": {
+  "bundle_id": "uk-5.0.1",
+  "country_id": "uk",
+  "policyengine_version": "5.0.1",
+  "model_package": "policyengine-uk",
+  "model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_package": "populace-data",
+  "data_version": "0.1.0",
+  "default_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "default_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_build_id": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "certified_data_artifact_sha256": "f17306ccb2aad7ff0130be3589b560afb2e2a12a943570911cd0c77f07934833",
+  "data_build_model_version": "2.89.2",
+  "data_build_model_git_sha": "None",
+  "data_build_fingerprint": "None",
+  "compatibility_basis": "exact_build_model_version",
+  "certified_by": "None",
+  "runtime_dataset": "populace_uk_2023",
+  "runtime_dataset_uri": "hf://policyengine/populace-uk-private/populace_uk_2023.h5@populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z",
+  "runtime_dataset_source": "/Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-uk-private/snapshots/a75a9a831d6b07aaffbd09713f2a1124f5c0f08f/populace_uk_2023.h5",
+  "managed_by": "policyengine.py"
+ },
+ "aggregates_gbp": {
+  "income_tax": 421891913533.19946,
+  "national_insurance": 61450306465.09366,
+  "ni_employer": 185481157065.2179,
+  "child_benefit": 17434702263.490685,
+  "universal_credit": 39887838277.66961,
+  "vat": 230436219162.37634,
+  "household_net_income": 1780466827149.559,
+  "gov_tax": 1057617265773.3811,
+  "gov_spending": 485663250574.56665
+ }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/COLLATION.md b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/COLLATION.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..51f3640
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/COLLATION.md
@@ -0,0 +1,76 @@
+## pwbm — DONE (first to finish)
+717 validated claims (382 revenue_change + proposed: pct_change_after_tax_income 161, primary_deficit_change 66, avg_* 108); 43 manifested artifacts, 103 extracted tables, re-runnable extract/stage scripts. OBBBA fully captured (signed conv $3,211B / dyn $3,631B — spot-checked vs prose; House variants; distribution 2027/2030/2033 × 9 groups). INGEST GOTCHAS: (1) some tables score vs TCJA-extension baseline → conditions.baseline_policy=tcja_extension — needs a non-current-law baseline ReformRef; (2) OBBBA "Table 3" = primary_deficit_change not revenue; (3) PWBM distribution concept = after-tax-AND-transFER income (conditions.income_concept); (4) tariff xlsx units inferred (rows flagged UNITS INFERRED). Best PE-runnable: SS-benefits-tax elimination, Keep Your Pay Act, WATCA surtax, top-rate options.
+## tax_foundation — DONE
+665 validated claims (491 revenue_change + 174 pct_change_after_tax_income), conv/dyn never mixed, zero unparseable cells, reproducible stage_claims.py. Crawl respected their robots (sitemap-driven, 5s AI-bot delay, contact UA). Headliners: OBBBA final law canonical page (conv −$5,168.4B / dyn −$4,331.1B, 2025–2034, cross-verified) + provision-level XLSX (40 provisions; TCJA-permanence with conv AND dyn per provision, e.g. SALT cap +$1,020.4B/+$782.7B) + Tariff Tracker July-2026 vintage. INGEST GOTCHAS: calendar-vs-fiscal UNSTATED on OBBBA/TCJA revenue tables (per-row note — don't assume FY vs CBO/JCT); tariff tables mix subtotal/component/total rows (no naive sums); state/district tables are Datawrapper embeds (CSV-endpoint follow-up); pct_change_after_tax_income recurs → deliberate Metric extension. NOTE cross-source: TF OBBBA conv −$5,168B vs PWBM signed conv −$3,211B — different conventions/scopes, adjudication material for the diagnosis loop.
+## budget_lab — DONE
+1,247 validated claims (644 revenue_change + 603 pct_change_after_tax_income; 861 high-confidence; zero dup keys; per-row value_raw + normalization + sign convention). Best data-per-artifact of the fleet: "TBL Data" XLSX ships with nearly every analysis. Jewels: reconciliation distributional workbook (% change after-tax-and-transfer income by quintile × {Medicaid, SNAP, Taxes, Net} × bill version — the TRANSFER-side complement nobody else publishes), 16-scenario CTC options workbook under two baselines (430 rows — ideal reform-score validation), provision-level House-vs-Senate distribution (279 rows). Poverty metrics: honestly zero (they publish income effects, not poverty). INGEST GOTCHAS: per-workbook unit chaos (fractions vs percent — normalized per row, caught via cross-workbook cell check); one workbook dropped for provably mislabeled headers; hidden right-side panels needed panel-aware parsing. Out-of-vocab held back: %GDP, $/household, share-of-tax-cut columns.
+## cpsp — DONE
+1,033 claims (534 poverty_rate + 318 rate_change + 149 count_change + 32 proposed levels; 961 construct clean vs models.py). The poverty complement to the tax scorers. Jewels: CTC counterfactual tables 2023/2024 (No-CTC/TCJA/OBBBA/AFA at explicit 100% take-up, no behavior — DIRECTLY expressible as policyengine_us reforms, the cleanest reform-validation surface of the night); monthly SPM series 2024-01→2025-12 (project ENDED Dec 2025, Gates funding — no 2026 monthlies will ever exist; Oct 2025 blank from the shutdown CPS); SNAP TFP-revocation all-state tables (change-validation; levels on pooled 2015-19 TRIM base, data_vintage flagged). Access: Cloudflare challenge NOT bypassed — static /sites/ files live w/ honest UA, pages via Wayback (recorded). BONUS: caught an ERRATUM in their 2024 historical brief (key-findings 16.6% vs body+math 11.4% — staged 11.4%, flagged) — external_issue diagnosis material before any comparison ran. Annual SPM levels ≈ Census → flag possible consumed_as_target reclass at ingest.
+## cbo — DONE
+931 claims (929 baseline + 2 reform; 317 pre-marked consumed_as_target VERIFIED against policyengine-us/parameters/calibration/gov/cbo/ — staging-time honesty labels). Program coverage: Medicaid 155, SSI 121, SNAP 68 (outlays+participation+avg benefit), UI 55, CHIP 44, + 330-row individual-income-tax detail (the sleeper: calendar-year AGI→liability walk, directly PE-tax-unit comparable). Caught a CBO WORKBOOK LABEL BUG (SNAP header says billions, values are millions — cross-verified to 6 sig figs). SSI sheet rows reproduce PE calibration yaml exactly. EITC/CTC: no dedicated workbook exists — composite line staged; Treasury refundable-credit accounts = follow-up lead. OBBBA cost-estimate PDFs retrieved but mostly period-ranged (2025-2034 windows) → verbatim pointers, only 2 single-year claims staged (SNAP avg benefit $213 reform vs $227 baseline, 2034). BLOCKERS: cbo.gov is DataDome-403 (no bypass; used local downloads + Wayback); 5 artifacts unretrieved incl. the June-2026 spending refresh — one click each in a real browser. Schema note: period-RANGE claims (10-year windows) don't fit int period → needs period_start/period_end or a window condition at ingest.
+## tpc — DONE
+1,486 claims from 35 of 54 harvested T-series tables (revenue_change 425 in-vocab; avg_tax_change 228, pct_change_ATI 198, share_with_tax_cut 167 proposed; 468 benefit-family rows flagged droppable). Coverage: full Senate-OBBBA distribution block, CTC options set (T25-0209/0213/0215 — parametric, but BASELINE = current law + Senate OBBBA Title VII, captured as baseline_hint per row), American Family Act T26-0029..31, June-2026 current-law baseline distribution block (mode-1 level validation once vocab extends), 3 tariff tables (independent comparator for the tariff-parity lane). Values verbatim + TPC's unrounded twin as value_unrounded; income axes verbatim incl. dollar-year. ACCESS RECIPE (documented for re-harvest): TPC Cloudflare-blocks curl at TLS-fingerprint level → browser-pane routing; Drupal pages throttle ~1/30-50s BUT static /sites/default/files/ XLS paths are unthrottled = the unlock; HTML tables are GIFs so XLS is the ONLY parseable artifact; page-slug vs file-id mismatches → key off file-internal table id.
+## jct — DONE (largest haul)
+6,771 claims across 7 conventional revenue tables — per-provision × FY2025-34, every row passing exact column-count validation + a horizontal checksum (years must sum to the printed span total), NET TOTALs matched to published figures, 5 random cells re-grepped. Jewels: JCX-35-25 enacted-OBBBA Title VII (−$4,474,972M ✓ the published $4.475T), JCX-26-25R House-passed (−$3,798,248M — enables per-provision House-vs-Senate cross-validation), JCX-29-25 scored vs CURRENT-POLICY baseline (conditions.baseline distinguishes twins — third source tonight exercising non-current-law baselines). Access: jct.gov TLS-fingerprint 403s everything non-browser → original bytes via Wayback at 1 req/3.5s (no bypass). FOLLOW-UPS: JCX-34-25 binary never archived (SPN 5xx tonight; correct URL in NOTES); 2026 JCX index needs a live-browser pass; JCX-45-25 tax-expenditure report downloaded but UNstaged (needs coordinate-aware parser + tax_expenditure metric).
+
+# FLEET SUMMARY — 2026-08-02 overnight
+7/7 harvesters complete. **12,850 staged claims** (JCT 6,771 · TPC 1,486 · Budget Lab 1,247 · CPSP 1,033 · CBO 931 · PWBM 717 · Tax Foundation 665), 246 manifested artifacts, all sha256'd, per-row provenance, verbatim values only, zero bot-mitigation bypasses (Wayback/static-path/browser-pane recipes documented per site).
+
+INGEST WORKLIST (deliberate schema decisions, then adapters):
+1. Metric extensions that RECUR: pct_change_after_tax_income (4 sources), avg_tax_change_usd (3), share_with_tax_cut, primary_deficit_change, tax_expenditure.
+2. period ranges (10-yr windows: JCT/PWBM/TF totals, CBO cost estimates) → period_start/period_end.
+3. Baseline variants are LOAD-BEARING: TCJA-extension (PWBM), current-policy (JCX-29-25), current-law+Senate-Title-VII (TPC CTC set) → non-current-law baseline ReformRefs, never conditions-only.
+4. conditions vocab to standardize: income_group + income_axis, scoring (conventional|dynamic), income_concept, baseline_policy, option, month, data_vintage.
+5. calibration_relationship: CBO rows pre-verified vs pe-us calibration params (317 consumed); CPSP annual SPM ≈ Census → review.
+DIAGNOSIS SEEDS ALREADY IN HAND: CPSP erratum (16.6 vs 11.4), CBO SNAP workbook label bug (billions/millions), TF-vs-PWBM OBBBA conventional gap (−5,168 vs −3,211 $B — scope/convention decomposition), JCT-vs-TF-vs-PWBM enacted-OBBBA triangle.
+FOLLOW-UP FETCH QUEUE (one click each in a real browser): 5 CBO artifacts incl. June-2026 refresh; JCX-34-25; 2026 JCX index; TF state/district Datawrapper CSVs.
+
+# UK FLEET — dispatched 2026-08-02
+Staging at ~/scorecard-harvest/uk_{source}/. UK conventions for ingest: values GBP (proposed unit gbp — UnitConcept lacks it, extend deliberately); UK fiscal year Apr–Mar (time_basis fiscal_year + fy label in conditions); geography labels UK/GB/England/Wales/Scotland/NI verbatim; income_concept BHC|AHC + equivalisation are LOAD-BEARING conditions on every distribution row; devolved variation (Scottish income tax) in conditions.
+
+# ⚠️ INGEST ROUTING RULE (Max 8/2): admin facts → LEDGER, model claims → SCORECARD
+Administrative caseload/expenditure/receipts OUTTURN rows (DWP benefit expenditure & caseload tables, HMRC outturn statistics, CBO historical rows) are populace CALIBRATION material → route to Ledger source packages (target-profile or validation_comparator facts), NOT scorecard external_scores. Scorecard holds MODEL claims only (Urban/TPC/PWBM/JCT/TF/BL/CPSP/IFS/RF/UKMOD + CBO projections + OBR forecasts — a forecast is a model speaking). Routing key = the per-row basis tag (outturn|forecast) the harvesters already stage. Scorecard rows referencing admin facts do so via ledger_fact pointers, never copies. Applies retroactively to the CBO baseline staging (projection rows stay scorecard-side; outturn rows → Ledger).
+## uk_hmt — DONE
+1,368 staged claims (1,218 exchequer_impact + 150 median_gross_income; 31 suppressed incl. verbatim negligible/blank-cell footnotes), 16 manifested artifacts, all sha256, zero bot mitigation (plain curl + honest UA; gov.uk search/content APIs for discovery). All 3 events: AB2024 (Table 5.1 XLSX, 70 measures + subtotals), Budget 2025 (Table 4.1 XLSX, 88 measures — Nov event is titled plain "Budget 2025"), SS2025 (Table 3.1 parsed from PDF text layer, 33 measures — no XLSX published). Checksums: sum(measures) vs Total rows within ±£30m everywhere; Employer NICs +23,770m cross-verified scorecard↔costings note. Spring Statement 2026 (3 Mar): forecast-only, NO costings/DA publications exist. Metric: proposed exchequer_impact NOT revenue_change (deliberate: footnote says Tax/Spend classification is by LARGEST impact, rows mix heads); sign convention verbatim-stated only at SS2025 (incl. HMT typo "postive"), observed+cross-checked for the XLSXs. DA income concept captured verbatim: equivalised net household income BHC, modified OECD (HBAI-consistent), IGOTM on pooled LCF 2017-18..2019-20 — on every distribution row. 24 verbatim costing-methodology notes (behavioural adjustments incl.) in NOTES.md as assumptions-registry material. BIGGEST GAP: per-decile policy-impact values (Figures 1.A/1.B) are chart graphics only — no published numbers anywhere (PDF, HTML, annex); only annex Table 2.C (median gross income by decile × composition) is numeric. DIAGNOSIS SEED: B2025 scorecard row embeds "taking 450,000 children out of poverty" in the two-child-limit measure name = testable government poverty claim. UNSTAGED: Tables 5.2/4.2 (previously-announced measures, downloaded).
+## uk_ukmod_jrf — DONE
+1,782 staged claims (ukmod 1,392 / jrf 390), 5 artifacts, zero bypasses (ISER open; JRF crawl-delay 20s honored). THE SAME-CLASS JEWEL: UKMOD Country Report 2023-2030 (CeMPA WP 8/26, Apr 2026) Section-4 validation block staged in full — Tables 4.5/4.6 caseloads+expenditure with UKMOD-simulated AND official-estimate columns side by side (38 instruments × 2023-2030, incl. Scottish income tax by band), 4.7 income distribution and 4.8 poverty rates × {UKMOD, Input Data, HBAI} — another microsimulation's self-validation, conditions.series distinguishes sides; official cells are second-hand DWP/HMRC/OBR → dedup vs first-hand lanes at ingest, delta = diagnosis material. Reform surface: CeMPA WP 3/26 Autumn Budget assessment (threshold freezes + UC two-child-limit removal + WFA restriction + PC cuts; reform_hint verbatim) — fiscal by year+nation, fixed-AHC poverty counts base/reform/change, child poverty by nation, Gini/S80S20 AHC+BHC. JRF: UK Poverty 2026 data workbook (81 sheets, machine-readable, HBAI-derived, UNROUNDED headline AHC series 1994/95-2023/24) — OT1/GT1/DDT1/OG1/FAST2/A1T1 staged; MIS 2025 Table 2 (88 cells, AHC/BHC-comparable totals). INGEST GOTCHAS: (1) UKMOD validation poverty/distribution = BHC, JRF headline = AHC — income_concept load-bearing everywhere; (2) proposed gbp units + value_kind currency_gbp extension; (3) UKMOD take-up priors frozen since 2021 (their own health warning) — expect drift in projected years; (4) CeMPA 3/26 title says Autumn Budget 2026, cover says 2025 (= Nov-2025 Budget measures); (5) MIS 2024 couples erratum (missing mobile phone, corrected 2025); (6) PDF header typo "2029 2029" on continuation pages, mapped positionally. ADAPTER-PATTERN VERDICT: yes — the EUROMOD/UKMOD country-report validation block (simulated vs official vs input-data columns, instrument × policy-year) is a standardized format ACROSS the whole EUROMOD family; one adapter keyed on (instrument, series, policy_year) generalizes to every EUROMOD country report and to prior UKMOD vintages (cempa2-25 = 2022-2029 available for drift analysis).
+## uk_resolution_foundation — DONE
+71 staged claims, 15 manifested artifacts (all sha256), zero bypasses (robots = blanket Allow; honest UA; ~3-4s delay). RF = third UK microsim lineage (IPPR Tax Benefit Model on FRS/HBAI 2023-24 — every distribution figure credits it) vs IFS TAXBEN and HMT IGOTM. Jewels: LSO 2026 poverty projections (child 33%→30% relative AHC 2025-26→2026-27, −420k children; working-age 19.9%→19.5%; pensioner 16.0% — and footnote 21 says DWP's Feb-2026 projections give the IDENTICAL 33→30 path = ready-made same-concept triangle with the DWP lane); LSO 2025 prior vintage (central 34% by 2029-30 = 4.8m children; policy scenario w/ 2CL repeal = 31% — pre-Budget counterfactual vs LSO 2026 post-Budget actual = vintage-pair for diagnosis); Stairway to headroom Budget-2025 decile block (2CL £3,570/extra-child-element, poorest fifth +£360; threshold freeze −£540 richest fifth vs −£64 poorest; mansion tax; 64% of poorest decile gain / 96% of richest decile lose — RF models 2029-30 vs HMT DA's 2028-29, scope = 52% of tax measures, both verbatim in NOTES); April-2026 uprating parameter set (3.8 CPI / 4.8 SP / 6.2 UC / 6.8 U25-UC / 1.5 UC-health-existing / 0 LHA — pure policyengine-uk parameter checks). 26 rows carry reform_hint (2CL repeal, UC CPI+2.3%, UC-health halving, freeze extension, mansion tax, EV per-mile). 8 rows attribution-flagged = RF citing government (HMT 4.1 costings £2.4bn→£3.1bn, DWP IA 510k/£4,560, govt −450k children) — dedup vs uk_hmt's first-hand Table-4.1 rows at ingest; RF's −420k (own model) vs govt's −450k embedded in the HMT scorecard row = the fleet's cleanest cross-model poverty-claim pair. INGEST GOTCHAS: (1) NO chart-data downloads exist anymore — RF pages ship PDF only (probed; site "Data" nav = 2 dashboards), so vigintile curves are labelled-points-only; (2) source TYPO in Catching up? "£1.85 million" = £1.85bn (flagged in-row); (3) £800m vs £810m vs £330m-net UC-uprating costs = three scopes/vintages, not contradictions; (4) changes-not-levels: RF applies modelled CHANGES to HBAI 2023-24 outturn, so levels inherit outturn error (their words, NOTES verbatim); (5) take-up assumptions UC 80% / PC 65→70% + full-UC-rollout-by-2026-27 in NOTES for the assumptions registry. UNMINED: Low Pay Britain 2025 (minwage), State of the nations (devolved; SCP figures are ScotGov-model, left unstaged), LSO 2025 Annex per-nation table, It's-personal-taxation (pdftotext yields 0 lines — OCR next pass).
+
+# UK FLEET SUMMARY — 2026-08-02, 7/7 complete
+**33,943 UK staged claims** (OBR 25,558 · HMRC 2,842 · DWP 2,054 · UKMOD/JRF 1,782 · HMT 1,368 · IFS 268 · RF 71), ~100 manifested artifacts. Combined US+UK: **46,793 staged claims, 14 sources** (+ Urban's 30,004 already in DB). Zero bot-mitigation bypasses fleet-wide (Turnstile seen at OBR and NOT clicked; Wayback originals + static-path unlocks documented per site).
+
+UK INGEST ADDITIONS to the worklist:
+1. Vocab: gbp unit (recurring everywhere), exchequer_impact (HMT/OBR — Tax/Spend heads mix, mapping = deliberate ingest decision), poverty_count, unclaimed_expenditure, revenue_level, policy_parameter_level, taxpayer_count (shared with CBO), income_percentile_point etc. (HMRC).
+2. FY convention: staging uses END-year in places, pe-uk-data maps START-year — conditions.fy disambiguates; normalize deliberately at ingest.
+3. LEDGER ROUTING (Max's rule) applies hardest here: DWP BECL outturn rows + HMRC outturn statistics → Ledger; BECL/HMRC forecast rows (OBR-consistent) + everything think-tank → scorecard. pe-uk-data consumption VERIFIED in-session by the DWP agent (targets/sources/obr.py + dwp.py) → consumed_as_target reclasses pre-evidenced.
+4. Take-up: DWP PC rows pre-marked seed_source (PE-UK pension_credit takeup.yaml cites this exact series — verified); DWP ~85% HB-pensioner take-up vs PE-UK takeup=1 = a direct pe_gap seed; IFS TAXBEN = deliberate full-take-up (entitlements basis, verbatim guide) = registry axis on every UK poverty comparison.
+UK DIAGNOSIS SEEDS: HBAI FYE2025 admin-linked restatement (same year/publisher, BHC relative 17.23%→15.18% — ~2pp methodology gap, paired editions staged); two-child-limit PENTAGON (IFS −540k steady-state · RF −420k · HMT/govt −450k · UKMOD assessment · PE-UK = fifth leg); OBR self-revision surface (EFO 3.17: freezes £24.3bn certified → £49.1bn latest); UKMOD take-up priors frozen since 2021 (their own §4.3 warning); BECL FY-average vs UC point-in-time (definitional, pre-adjudicated).
+FOLLOW-UP FETCH QUEUE (browser one-clicks): OBR March-2026 policy/expenditure tables + Nov-2025 policy tables; IFS taxlab revenue spreadsheets; HMT Tables 5.2/4.2; Stat-Xplore detail (auth = Max's call); RF vigintile series (correspondence = Max only).
+
+# FIRST UK COMPARISONS COMPUTED — 2026-08-02 (results/uk/ + comparison/uk_scorecard_first.csv)
+9 HMRC ready-reckoner rows vs PE-UK static (populace_uk_2023 @ dd68c73 via pe.py, FY2026): basic_rate 1.05 · pa_100 1.11 · employee_ni 1.13 · employer_ni 0.96 (on ni_employer; pe-uk wage-incidence spillover −£4.45bn IT+NI recorded — pe-uk NOT purely static on this margin) · vat 1.23 · class4 1.33 · cb 1.32 (HICBC netting hypothesis) · higher 2.02 · additional 12.9 — the TIE gradient 1.05→2.02→12.9 IS the taxable-income-elasticity ladder, assumption-registry linkable. TWO-CHILD LIMIT: PE 2026 baseline ALREADY abolishes (child_count 2→inf at 2026 — AB2025 encoded); removal measured vs reinstated counterfactual = £1.10bn UC cost, −1.34pp child poverty, 181k children — NOT yet pentagon-comparable: two named construction deltas (floating-line relative AHC vs external FIXED-line; u16 vs HBAI dependent children) + single-year vs steady-state roll-in. Fixed-line rerun = next compute item before any adjudication.
+
+# US YEAR GRID COMPLETE — 2026-08-02
+baseline+fullpart now computed at 2024/2025/2026 (comparison/pe_{baseline,fullpart}[_YYYY].csv, monthly-aware flag forcing throughout). Unlocks: CBO FY2025/26 projection joins (exploit item 7 — respect outlays-vs-benefits concepts per cbo/NOTES.md row map) and CPSP 2024 comparisons. Campaign chip task_68d35783 staged; CAMPAIGN.md = driver.
+
+# COMPUTE BATCH — 2026-08-02 afternoon (campaign session, CAMPAIGN.md driver)
+**UK two-child fixed-line rerun (exploit 3) ✅**: PE −243,108 HBAI-dep children (−1.61pp), 2026, fixed baseline relative-AHC line, calibrated take-up (results/uk/two_child_fixed_line_2026.json). Findings: (1) line convention contributes EXACTLY ZERO — person-weighted medians identical to 5 decimals between worlds (UC changes never touch the median household), so floating-vs-fixed was a null delta all along; (2) child-definition delta u16→HBAI-dep only +8k; (3) pe-uk's in_relative_poverty_ahc uses HOUSEHOLD-weighted median vs HBAI person-weighted convention (upstream note-worthy; both computed, person-weighted used); (4) prior run's in_poverty_ahc was ABSOLUTE AHC (parameter threshold), not relative — abs-line continuity check reproduces 181k u16 exactly; (5) grandfathering verified in code (born<2017 exempt) → PE reinstated world = actual partially-rolled-in 2026 law. Pentagon discipline: legs NOT same-concept (IFS −540k = 2CL-only steady-state; govt −450k horizon ~2029-30; RF −420k = Budget-package YoY; UKMOD CeMPA = NET package −13k children FY2026/27, freezes offset 2CL). Fulltakeup (IFS-entitlements-comparable) world pair queued — take-up is the live hypothesis for PE −243k vs IFS −540k.
+**CPSP CTC counterfactuals 2024 (exploit 2) 🔄→✅**: runner cpsp_ctc.py, every gov.irs.credits.ctc.* path pinned against installed tree before construction. 2023 legs = not_computed WITH REASON (certified populace_us single-period 2024; 2023 weighted population = 0; year-mismatched comparison declined) — results/us/cpsp_ctc/NOT_COMPUTED_2023.json. 2024 landed so far: no_ctc 21.15% u18 (CPSP 16.6), obbba 16.74% (CPSP 13.3). LEVELS gap ~+3.4-4.5pp is DATASET LINEAGE not take-up: forcing credit flags moves PE only ~0.2pp (year-grid unforced 16.97% vs forced ~16.7%); CPSP≈Census 13.3-13.4. → dataset_construction diagnosis seed for populace calibration (ECPS sparse build measures child SPM high). Changes directionally consistent; full report when tcja/afa land. AFA construction: 2024-brief params deflated 2025→2024 (CPI ratio 0.97154, recorded assumption incl. 2025-CPI-vintage caveat); named deltas: newborn payment omitted, birth-month proration, refundable-ODC.
+**TPC CTC/toprate/AFA batch (exploit 4) 🔄**: 16 sims in flight. T25-0209 full specs extracted from XLSX (3 CTC legs + 3 toprate legs at exact thresholds + totals); toprate legs runnable via gov.contrib.additional_tax_bracket structural reform (in_effect switch; slots 1-7 mirrored from live tree at runtime — contrib defaults are stale pre-OBBBA, mirroring is load-bearing). T26-0029 AFA vs current law INCLUDES TPC microdynamic response (named axis vs static PE); AFA floor ambiguity (bill $2,000 vs OBBBA $2,200 mid-tier) bounded by running BOTH constructions. FY-cash vs CY-liability convention named; CTC legs run at 2025 AND 2026 (FY2026 ≈ TY2025 refund settle-up for CTC).
+**Random audit draw #1 (explore) ✅**: seed 20260802, universe 76,797 (14 staged files + urban DB read-only), 100 drawn, ALL outcomes published + hand-reviewed (results/audit/). Reviewed counts: computed_prior 6 · compute_candidate {reform 14, baseline 3, subgroup 24} · out_of_model {scope 22, admin 9, static 1, geo-pool 1, missing-axis 2} · vocab_pending 9 · vintage 2 (+3 modelable-in-kind) · needs_concept_map 2 · ledger_routed 1 · needs_review 1. BIGGEST UNLOCK: the 24 Urban subgroup slices (race/age/earners) need ONE subgroup-aware rerun of year-grid concepts (race + is_hispanic verified present in pe-us; locale/metro axis verified ABSENT → 2 rows honestly out_of_model_missing_axis). JCT draws are provision-level revenue staged under proposed_metric — reclassed compute_candidate (exploit-5 lane).
+**RULING UPDATE (Max, 8/2, via calibration session — supersedes the batch note above)**: the CPSP/Census child-SPM LEVEL gap is RECLASSIFIED from dataset_construction seed to **by_design** (new diagnosis class, issue #9): Census SPM is not a target; populace deliberately departs from ASEC SPM attributes (calculated-vs-reported benefits, recalibration, threshold treatment — populace PR#32/census #9081 lineage). Level rows vs ASEC-anchored series carry by_design; adjudication text = design-rationale decomposition, never convergence language. CTC world CHANGE comparisons unchanged (same_assumptions test). cpsp_ctc_report.py + CAMPAIGN.md item 2 updated accordingly.
+**REGISTER REFINEMENT (Max, 8/2, supersedes the by_design note above)**: scorecard is DESCRIPTIVE BY DEFAULT. (1) by_design → **methodological_difference**, strictly descriptive (both sides' choices documented via registry links; no defended-departure or convergence framing either direction — SPM level rows state Populace calculates benefits + recalibrates where ASEC carries reported attributes, and stop). (2) **pe_gap / external_issue require a citable known issue in action_link** (populace#593, CPSP 16.6/11.4 erratum qualify; divergence alone never does). (3) Compute-time hypotheses default explanation-shaped; verdict-shaped only on known-issue rows. Applied to cpsp_ctc_report.py + CAMPAIGN.md. Full ruling: issue #9 latest comment.
+
+# CALIBRATION-SESSION EXCHANGE + TPC FIRST DELTAS — 2026-08-02 later afternoon
+**#593/#9081 citations now grounded**: (a) populace#593 scope verified by calibration session — pe_gap valid for early_head_start-affected poverty/net-income rows (EHS at engine-default 100% take-up, 5.16M/$112.3B, flows INSIDE household_net_income) + CHIP program aggregates only; added to cpsp_ctc_report hypotheses with action_link. (b) DWP HB take-up issue NOW FILED (policyengine-uk#1813) — HB rows may carry pe_gap under the gating rule. (c) **spm-calculator finding**: certified .venv-pe runs 0.3.1 — the version policyengine-us#9081 flags. Ground truth extracted from the PR#32 branch data (BLS workbook sha256 e7931a1f…): at sim-year 2024, 0.3.1 values EXACTLY equal the pre-correction published series (39430/39068/32586), so the 2019-2023 hand-entry errors (≤8%) are moot for everything computed this session; only the BLS 2026-07-17 correction applies at 2024 (renter −0.53% / owner+m +0.42% / owner-o +0.90%). Threshold-channel decomposition leg queued (threshold_channel.py: value-pinned swap to corrected series on the CPSP tcja basis; differenced vs tcja_2024 → descriptive channel magnitude). CPSP-2023 artifact question: DEFER per calibration shepherd (revisit trigger = populace multi-year artifacts).
+**TPC first deltas (CY-liability vs FY-cash, per-leg)**: AFA-onto-OBBBA **−132.5B vs TPC −133.9B (ratio 0.99)** — and TPC's number includes microdynamic response. ctc_opt2 −15.4B vs −22.8B (0.68; consistent with CY2025 leg −15.1B and the implied-from-total −15.4B — internally consistent three ways). toprate opt2 +3.6B vs +12.2B (0.29) / opt3 +4.4B vs +13.1B (0.34) BUT opt3−opt2 difference +0.85B vs TPC +0.9B — explanation-shaped reading: PE tracks the marginal band ($1.56M→1.72M threshold move) closely while the far-tail (>$2M taxable) level runs ~⅓ of TPC's — top-tail income mass in the sparse ECPS build is the leading explanation channel (FY-vs-CY timing pushes the true gap LARGER, strengthening it). total_opt2 −11.8 vs −10.6 (1.12): the two legs' gaps OFFSET in the net — totals-only comparisons would have hidden both; per-leg decomposition is the product. Interaction term ≈0.05B (total ≈ ctc+toprate exactly).
+
+# VOLUME LANE FIRST RETURNS — 2026-08-02 evening
+**UK free joins (16 rows, zero sims beyond the one aggregates harvest)** — results/uk/free_joins.csv. Coherent two-cluster read (explanation-shaped): (1) TAX SIDE systematically ~1.14-1.23 vs OBR FY2026-27 receipts across FIVE independent heads (IT 1.173 · NICs 1.167-1.228 · VAT 1.170 · CGT 1.165 · council tax 1.139) — uniformity points at a COMMON level factor (2023-artifact income mass uprated to 2026; FY/CY + cash-vs-accrual are few-% and partly wrong-signed) rather than per-head modeling; consistent with tranche-1 reckoner delta ratios (1.05-1.13). Candidate name: uk_income_level_calibration. (2) BENEFIT SIDE program-specific: state_pension 0.993 · pension_credit 0.932 (both calibrated) · UC 0.504 (the 0.55 stochastic take-up in-data; fulltakeup world queued tests it directly) · child_benefit 1.347 (universal-claiming vs real opt-outs + HICBC netting; matches cb reckoner 1.32) · PIP 0.721 / DLA 0.765 / AA 0.557 (receipt under-capture/take-up). fuel duty 0.527 = household-incidence share only (scope note on row). uk_aggregates.py = 33 totals, 0 absent — the whole BECL/OBR/HMRC surface is now joinable each release.
+**US free joins**: SNAP participants 1.487 (annual-ever vs avg-monthly — expected direction, churn-plausible), SSI 0.840 (low-churn program → genuine undercount signal). Dollar rows unlock as pass2 lands.
+**PWBM SS-tax elimination**: PE CY2025 −102.1B, construction verified (taxable SS = 0.0 exactly); coherent with PWBM FY2025 −60B / FY2026 −116B under CY↔FY mapping; senior-deduction baseline vintage = named axis. 2026 leg queued.
+**AFA floor bound complete**: −130.7B (bill $2,000 floor) to −132.5B (onto-OBBBA $2,200) vs TPC FY2026 −133.9B — ratios 0.976-0.989, ambiguity width 1.8B, and TPC includes microdynamics. The AFA reform family now has poverty (CPSP) + revenue (TPC) legs from one construction set.
+**OBR measure sample**: 10 reversal legs queued (obr_measures.py) — HICBC SB2024, ee-NI 2p/4p, class4 stack, class2 reinstate, employer AB2024, ART AS2022, dividends AB2021, CGT AB2024, PT/LPL SS2022 (low-confidence flag). Residential-CGT SB2024 skipped: no residential split in pe-uk cgt params (verified).
+**TWO-CHILD TAKE-UP DECOMPOSITION COMPLETE (exploit 3 fully closed)**: entitlements-basis pair (all would_claim_* + claims_all_entitled_benefits forced) → removal effect −277,287 dep children (−1.83pp) / UC cost £1.85bn, vs calibrated −243,108 (−1.61pp) / £1.10bn. Ordered channel ledger for the pentagon: line convention 0 · child definition +8k · TAKE-UP +34k (quantified this run) · residual vs IFS −540k / govt −450k = roll-in vintage (PE 2026 keeps born-pre-2017 exemptions; IFS steady-state removes them) + model/data lineage. Full-take-up baseline child rate 31.3% vs calibrated 33.6% (take-up alone = 2.3pp of measured child poverty). Cost triangle: PE calibrated £1.10bn · PE entitlements £1.85bn · HMT costing £2.4bn FY2026-27 (incl legacy-CTC scope + OBR-certified take-up response) — coherent ordering, named scopes. results/uk/two_child_fixed_line{,_fulltakeup}_2026.json.
+**CPSP CTC COUNTERFACTUALS 2024 COMPLETE (exploit 2 closed)**: all four worlds computed on CPSP's stated basis; report + staged rows at results/us/cpsp_ctc/. CHANGES (the same_assumptions surface): obbba_vs_tcja PE −0.03pp vs CPSP 0.00pp u18 — both models agree the OBBBA CTC parameter change is poverty-null; no_ctc_vs_tcja PE +4.38pp vs +3.30pp; afa_vs_tcja PE −6.12pp vs −4.50pp — near-constant PE/CPSP delta scaling (1.33×/1.36×) across scenarios = single density-at-threshold factor, not scenario-specific construction. LEVELS +3.5-4.6pp uniformly = methodological_difference (descriptive; SPM_NOTES.md; pe_gap sub-cite populace#593 EHS-in-net-income). 2023 = not_computed + DEFER recorded. Diagnosis classes per the 8/2 descriptive register throughout.
diff --git a/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_dwp/NOTES.md b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_dwp/NOTES.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..bd3636c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_dwp/NOTES.md
@@ -0,0 +1,177 @@
+# uk_dwp harvest notes — 2026-08-02
+
+Target: DWP statistics on gov.uk. All fetches via gov.uk content API +
+assets.publishing.service.gov.uk with honest UA
+(`PolicyEngine-Scorecard-harvester/0.1 ... contact: max@maxghenis.com`).
+No bot-mitigation encountered; no bypasses; Stat-Xplore NOT touched (auth-gated,
+per instructions).
+
+**2,054 staged claims** in `claims_staged.jsonl` (concatenated by
+`validate_and_concat.py` from per-source files, all re-runnable):
+- `claims_takeup.jsonl` — 805 rows (stage_takeup.py)
+- `claims_becl.jsonl` — 204 rows (stage_becl.py)
+- `claims_hbai.jsonl` — 992 rows (stage_hbai.py)
+- `claims_hbai_prior.jsonl` — 48 rows (stage_hbai_prior.py)
+- `claims_uc.jsonl` — 5 rows (stage_uc.py)
+
+Validation (validate_and_concat.py, against scorecard_db/models.py): all rows
+in closed vocab or proposed_*; conditions str->str; **zero duplicate claim
+keys**; 48 suppressed rows (all FYE 2021 take-up, `[x]` in source, staged with
+status=suppressed per the model contract).
+
+## Conventions used (UK FLEET rules)
+- **period = FY ENDING calendar year** (DWP "FYE 2024" = Apr 2023–Mar 2024 →
+  period 2024), `time_basis=fiscal_year`, verbatim `conditions.fy`
+  ("FYE 2024" for take-up, "2023/24" for BECL/HBAI, matching each source's own
+  label). ⚠️ policyengine-uk-data maps FY to its STARTING year (FY 2025-26 →
+  2025) — ingest must reconcile via conditions.fy, not period.
+- **GBP**: `proposed_unit: "gbp"` (UnitConcept lacks it), values normalized to
+  absolute GBP with per-row `conversion` (e.g. "£ million x 1e6"), `value_raw`
+  verbatim. value_kind "gbp" (analogue of usd).
+- Rates staged as shares (/100), unrounded where the source is unrounded
+  (HBAI gives 12+ significant figures — ideal for exact comparison).
+- Counts: thousands x 1000, millions x 1e6, documented per row.
+- Geography verbatim: gb / uk / england_wales per the source's own coverage
+  statements (see devolution below).
+
+## (1) Income-related benefits: estimates of take-up — 805 rows
+Editions staged: **FYE 2024** (latest, published 2025-10-30) full series
+FYE 2010 + FYE 2013–FYE 2024; **FYE 2023** (prior, published 2024-10-10)
+headline year only. `conditions.edition` distinguishes (cross-edition revision
+checks; FYE 2023 central caseload take-up identical across editions = no
+revision).
+- Coverage (benefits × editions): **Pension Credit** (PC1–PC10) and **Housing
+  Benefit for pensioners** (HB1–HB2) in BOTH editions. Income-related ESA/JSA:
+  **not published in either edition** (discontinued from the series — FYE 2022
+  restart covers PC + HB-pensioners only). So the benefits×editions matrix is
+  2×2, complete.
+- Structure per benefit: caseload table (recipients; entitled non-recipients;
+  caseload take-up %) + expenditure table (amount claimed £m; amount unclaimed
+  £m; expenditure take-up %). Central/lower/upper staged as separate rows,
+  `conditions.bound`; both rates share metric=participation_rate with
+  `conditions.takeup_basis: caseload|expenditure` (per task spec).
+- PC breakdowns: entitlement_group (all / guarantee_credit /
+  savings_credit_only) all years; family_type (PC3) and age_group (PC7)
+  caseload take-up for FYE 2024 only.
+- Units: caseload figures are thousands of benefit units → unit_concept
+  families. Expenditure-basis take-up rows carry proposed_unit gbp (share of
+  entitled money claimed).
+- Metrics: participant_count, participation_gap_count (entitled
+  non-recipients — in-vocab!), participation_rate; benefit_cost (amount
+  claimed); proposed_metric **unclaimed_expenditure** (amount unclaimed, with
+  bounds — the £ take-up gap; recurs 168x, worth a deliberate Metric
+  extension).
+- FYE 2021: suppressed `[x]` in source (COVID FRS), staged status=suppressed.
+- calibration: PC rows = **seed_source** — policyengine-uk
+  gov/dwp/pension_credit/takeup.yaml (0.7 from 2015) cites this publication
+  series (verified this session). HB rows = held_out (PE-UK HB takeup is
+  definitionally 1 — "no new claims"; DWP's measured HB-pensioner take-up
+  ~85% is a genuine external comparator for that assumption).
+- Not staged (available in artifacts): mean/median weekly amounts
+  claimed/unclaimed (PC2/HB2), expenditure take-up by family type/age
+  (PC4/6/8/10).
+
+## (2) Benefit expenditure and caseload tables (BECL) — 204 rows
+Artifact: Outturn and forecast tables, **Spring Forecast 2026** (published
+2026-04-14; OBR Spring 2026 forecast-consistent). XLSX parsed cell-exact
+(spot-verified 5 cells to full precision).
+- Staged: FY 2019/20 → 2030/31 (outturn through 2024/25, forecast 2025/26+,
+  designation read from the workbook's own header row →
+  `conditions.basis: outturn|forecast`).
+- Benefits: state_pension (exp + caseload), universal_credit (exp + household
+  caseload), uc_and_equivalents (exp), pension_credit (exp + caseload), dla,
+  pip, attendance_allowance (exp + caseload, total and in_payment),
+  child_benefit (exp; BECL line is "Child Benefit, One Parent Benefit &
+  Guardian's Allowance" — component condition records this), personal_tax_credits (exp).
+  Child Benefit has **no caseload row** in BECL (expenditure only, Non-DWP
+  Welfare sheet) — HMRC Child Benefit statistics are the caseload source
+  (→ uk_hmrc lane).
+- ⚠️ Devolution (verbatim from Notes tab): DLA/PIP/AA figures are
+  **England & Wales only from FY 2020/21** (Scottish transfer 1 April 2020) —
+  staged geography=england_wales for those years, gb for 2019/20, with
+  per-row geography_note. All other benefits GB.
+- ⚠️ Caseload semantics (verbatim Notes): "Caseload figures represent an
+  average over the full financial year" — per-row time_note. Explains e.g.
+  UC households 5.473M (FY 2024/25 average) vs 7.2M (Feb 2026 point-in-time
+  from the UC release).
+- calibration: staged held_out with a VERIFIED note — pe-uk-data
+  targets/sources/obr.py consumes benefit expenditure and caseload forecasts
+  from the OBR March 2026 EFO; BECL is OBR-consistent → likely
+  consumed_as_target reclass at ingest for matching benefits.
+
+## (3) HBAI headline poverty — 992 + 48 rows
+Artifact: HBAI summary results ODS, FYE 2025 edition (published 2026-03-26).
+- Staged: tables 1.3a/b (all individuals), 1.4a/b (children), 1.5a/b
+  (working-age adults), 1.6a/b (pensioners): rates AND counts, full series
+  FYE 1995–FYE 2025, relative & absolute × BHC & AHC (income_concept and
+  poverty_measure MANDATORY conditions on every row). Rates unrounded
+  percentages → shares; counts millions → persons. poverty_rate in-vocab;
+  counts as proposed_metric **poverty_count** (496 rows — Metric extension
+  candidate).
+- equivalisation condition verbatim-grounded: FYE 2025 methodology report —
+  "The main equivalence scales now used in HBAI are the modified OECD scales";
+  AHC uses the OECD companion scale → equivalisation=modified_oecd /
+  modified_oecd_companion_ahc.
+- ⚠️ **Absolute line re-anchor** (Notes sheet Note 3, verbatim): from the
+  2024/25 publication the absolute fixed reference year is **FYE 2025 for
+  2021/22–2024/25**; years before 2021/22 remain anchored at **FYE 2011**;
+  from summer 2026 DWP will re-anchor 2018/19–2020/21 too. Per-row
+  `conditions.poverty_line_anchor: fye_2025|fye_2011`. (Consequence: absolute
+  = relative exactly in FYE 2025, both 15.911572...% BHC.)
+- ⚠️ **Break in series / admin-linkage** (sheet 1_3a header note): from
+  2021/22 HBAI uses integrated survey + benefit admin data → those rows carry
+  data_vintage=admin_linked_frs + series_note.
+- **Cross-edition methodology divergence (diagnosis seed)**: prior edition
+  (FYE 2024, published 2025-03-27, survey-only) staged for FYE 2022–2024
+  rates (48 rows, edition=fye_2024, data_vintage=survey_frs). Same year, same
+  measure, same publisher: all-individuals BHC relative FYE 2024 = **17.23%
+  (survey-only) vs 15.18% (admin-linked restatement)** — a ~2pp
+  methodology-not-policy gap; the direct UK analogue of a vintage diagnosis.
+  populace-UK is FRS-based, so which vintage PE matches is itself diagnostic.
+- Geography: FRS (GB) for FYE 1995–2002, FRS (UK) from FYE 2003 (col-0 series
+  markers) → geography per row.
+- calibration: held_out with note — HBAI and PE-UK share FRS microdata;
+  agreement is same-input replication, not independent validation.
+- Headline spot-checks vs main report HTML: individuals BHC FYE 2025 16%
+  (report) vs 15.91% staged (unrounded) ✓; child AHC relative 27.4%,
+  pensioner AHC 13.9%.
+- Not staged (in artifacts): material deprivation & combined low-income tables
+  (1.4c–h, 1.5c–h, 1.6c), disability splits (1.7a–h), Gini/quintile medians
+  (1.2b), full data-tables zip (not downloaded; summary ODS suffices for
+  headlines).
+
+## (4) UC statistics — 5 rows
+Latest release: "Universal Credit quarterly statistics, 29 April 2013 to
+12 February 2026" (published 2026-05-12). Detailed tables are on Stat-Xplore
+(auth — not attempted). Headline counts staged verbatim from release text
+(rounded 0.1M, conversion noted): households on UC Feb 2026 = 7.2M; households
+with payment = 6.7M (93%); people on UC Feb 2026 = 8.3M, Feb 2025 = 7.5M;
+people on UC in employment Jan 2026 = 3.1M. GB. point_in_time with
+conditions.month. Households series produced three months in arrears; recent
+months provisional.
+
+## Proposed vocabulary (recurring, for the deliberate-extension worklist)
+- proposed_unit **gbp** (500 rows) — per UK FLEET convention.
+- proposed_metric **poverty_count** (496) — level counts (Metric has only
+  poverty_count_change).
+- proposed_metric **unclaimed_expenditure** (168) — take-up gap in money.
+- Conditions vocab introduced: bound (central|lower|upper), takeup_basis
+  (caseload|expenditure), edition, entitlement_group, family_type, age_group,
+  basis (outturn|forecast), fy, income_concept (bhc|ahc), poverty_measure,
+  poverty_line_anchor, equivalisation, data_vintage, subgroup, component,
+  month.
+
+## Blockers / follow-ups
+- Stat-Xplore: households-on-UC by month/region/family-type tables need the
+  guest/auth API — not attempted per instructions. Release-text headlines
+  staged instead.
+- HBAI full data-tables zip (69MB-ish, directional/regional detail) not
+  pulled — summary ODS covers all headline needs.
+- Income-related ESA/JSA take-up: genuinely not published anymore (not a
+  fetch failure).
+- BECL prior vintage (Autumn/2025 edition) not staged — Spring 2026 is the
+  current baseline analogue; add if forecast-vintage comparisons wanted.
+- Pension Credit weekly amounts + take-up by marital/tenure axes available in
+  artifacts, unstaged (time box).
+- period-int convention clash with pe-uk-data (ending vs starting year) —
+  resolve once at ingest via conditions.fy.
diff --git a/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_dwp/claims_staged.jsonl.gz b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_dwp/claims_staged.jsonl.gz
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..4a0ac1d
Binary files /dev/null and b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_dwp/claims_staged.jsonl.gz differ
diff --git a/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_dwp/manifest.jsonl b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_dwp/manifest.jsonl
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..3e50111
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_dwp/manifest.jsonl
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+{"url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/68ff856abcb10f6bf9bef927/pension_credit_tables_fye_2324.ods", "title": "Pension Credit tables: financial year ending 2024 (Income-related benefits: estimates of take-up)", "date": "2025-10-30", "sha256": "35896df8ec2efdc04439d5e2b55732a007f50439b9bd10dd37a7f12673ae4c93", "local_path": "downloads/pension_credit_tables_fye_2324.ods", "doc_type": "ods", "size_bytes": 58962, "fetched": "2026-08-02", "fetch_mode": "live", "source": "uk_dwp", "publisher": "Department for Work and Pensions"}
+{"url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/68ff8659d81972ecd2df5db4/housing_benefit_tables_fye_2324.ods", "title": "Housing Benefit for pensioners tables: financial year ending 2024 (Income-related benefits: estimates of take-up)", "date": "2025-10-30", "sha256": "f8545d4b2d563cc8364f1d86c30f241ac23a177dda4892aa8c1911e0c4317c18", "local_path": "downloads/housing_benefit_tables_fye_2324.ods", "doc_type": "ods", "size_bytes": 22626, "fetched": "2026-08-02", "fetch_mode": "live", "source": "uk_dwp", "publisher": "Department for Work and Pensions"}
+{"url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/670680e4e84ae1fd8592f094/pension-credit-tables-fye-2023.ods", "title": "Pension Credit: tables financial year ending 2023 (Income-related benefits: estimates of take-up)", "date": "2024-10-10", "sha256": "c77ae81278bfa0377f0ee2892cd060b1f2a5a4d3b57800ec5f9b06b596a91217", "local_path": "downloads/pension-credit-tables-fye-2023.ods", "doc_type": "ods", "size_bytes": 55213, "fetched": "2026-08-02", "fetch_mode": "live", "source": "uk_dwp", "publisher": "Department for Work and Pensions"}
+{"url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/670680fd366f494ab2e7b5bc/housing-benefit-tables-fye-2023.ods", "title": "Housing Benefit for pensioners: tables financial year ending 2023 (Income-related benefits: estimates of take-up)", "date": "2024-10-10", "sha256": "7a67804915a876be365c3817c24b19b2fe4c7ca140242046eff41d7c0fb83927", "local_path": "downloads/housing-benefit-tables-fye-2023.ods", "doc_type": "ods", "size_bytes": 22320, "fetched": "2026-08-02", "fetch_mode": "live", "source": "uk_dwp", "publisher": "Department for Work and Pensions"}
+{"url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69dcdc8c6b695d635c34dcc4/outturn-and-forecast-tables-spring-forecast-2026.xlsx", "title": "Benefit expenditure and caseload tables 2026: Outturn and forecast tables, Spring Forecast 2026", "date": "2026-04-14", "sha256": "11a591e4a2144ed6a686be6a9ded4e5d5b3b8d4887bd57c1ff0632bd251009de", "local_path": "downloads/outturn-and-forecast-tables-spring-forecast-2026.xlsx", "doc_type": "xlsx", "size_bytes": 1707003, "fetched": "2026-08-02", "fetch_mode": "live", "source": "uk_dwp", "publisher": "Department for Work and Pensions"}
+{"url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69c28ffcb920af63be1c7767/summary-hbai-1994-95-2024-25-tables.ods", "title": "HBAI summary results FYE 1995 to FYE 2025 (Households below average income)", "date": "2026-03-26", "sha256": "38586ace5e06ca0029f9b5345a6047c54143ee03c644a2c0553d77813ca27a21", "local_path": "downloads/summary-hbai-1994-95-2024-25-tables.ods", "doc_type": "ods", "size_bytes": 414500, "fetched": "2026-08-02", "fetch_mode": "live", "source": "uk_dwp", "publisher": "Department for Work and Pensions"}
+{"url": "https://www.gov.uk/api/content/government/statistics/income-related-benefits-estimates-of-take-up-financial-year-ending-2024/income-related-benefits-estimates-of-take-up-financial-year-ending-2024", "title": "Income-related benefits: estimates of take-up: FYE 2024 (main report, HTML via content API)", "date": "2025-10-30", "sha256": "160e8e3ea2f0eabe6af9eb7b56fba364bad651881af2bdbb71d43eaf97d92ff0", "local_path": "downloads/takeup_fye2024_main_report.json", "doc_type": "html_json", "size_bytes": 60434, "fetched": "2026-08-02", "fetch_mode": "live", "source": "uk_dwp", "publisher": "Department for Work and Pensions"}
+{"url": "https://www.gov.uk/api/content/government/statistics/income-related-benefits-estimates-of-take-up-financial-year-ending-2023/income-related-benefits-estimates-of-take-up-financial-year-ending-2023", "title": "Income-related benefits: estimates of take-up: FYE 2023 (main report, HTML via content API)", "date": "2024-10-10", "sha256": "9f415f98bf20dbdc03a934dc630de9cbd9e13a21db5b23428c1745c70bf0f0f4", "local_path": "downloads/takeup_fye2023_main_report.json", "doc_type": "html_json", "size_bytes": 56307, "fetched": "2026-08-02", "fetch_mode": "live", "source": "uk_dwp", "publisher": "Department for Work and Pensions"}
+{"url": "https://www.gov.uk/api/content/government/statistics/universal-credit-quarterly-statistics-29-april-2013-to-12-february-2026/universal-credit-quarterly-statistics-29-april-2013-to-12-february-2026", "title": "Universal Credit quarterly statistics, 29 April 2013 to 12 February 2026 (main release, HTML via content API)", "date": "2026-05-12", "sha256": "d875423157c82ca3fc1bf41c8b6cc95721eaa5b4e944d9284deb05746e934223", "local_path": "downloads/uc_quarterly_feb2026_main_release.json", "doc_type": "html_json", "size_bytes": 89403, "fetched": "2026-08-02", "fetch_mode": "live", "source": "uk_dwp", "publisher": "Department for Work and Pensions"}
+{"url": "https://www.gov.uk/api/content/government/statistics/households-below-average-income-for-financial-years-ending-1995-to-2025/households-below-average-income-an-analysis-of-the-uk-income-distribution-fye-1995-to-fye-2025", "title": "Households Below Average Income: analysis of the UK income distribution FYE 1995 to FYE 2025 (main report, HTML via content API)", "date": "2026-03-26", "sha256": "efab81aea290d07414f90d01a39d112993c1e0af50fbf31df97e21b4aa2dd296", "local_path": "downloads/hbai_fye2025_main_report.json", "doc_type": "html_json", "size_bytes": 183380, "fetched": "2026-08-02", "fetch_mode": "live", "source": "uk_dwp", "publisher": "Department for Work and Pensions"}
+{"url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/67e2b5915698d84e39cfdac6/HBAI_summary_results.ods", "title": "HBAI summary results FYE 1995 to FYE 2024 (prior edition, Households below average income)", "date": "2025-03-27", "sha256": "c279143511996da429ffa67f925049ab0af441af4ceb9c63f7496a0e1740c77e", "local_path": "downloads/HBAI_summary_results_fye2024_edition.ods", "doc_type": "ods", "size_bytes": 397545, "fetched": "2026-08-02", "fetch_mode": "live", "source": "uk_dwp", "publisher": "Department for Work and Pensions"}
+{"url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69c290be7e02b81c0d1c7763/directory-of-tables-hbai-2024-2025.ods", "title": "HBAI directory of tables FYE 2025 (guide to the data tables)", "date": "2026-03-26", "sha256": "5de22f450860fea1aad91204181171ecc905f172a816c92c3b90b76ea22011c1", "local_path": "downloads/directory-of-tables-hbai-2024-2025.ods", "doc_type": "ods", "size_bytes": 30875, "fetched": "2026-08-02", "fetch_mode": "live", "source": "uk_dwp", "publisher": "Department for Work and Pensions"}
+{"url": "https://www.gov.uk/api/content/government/statistics/income-related-benefits-estimates-of-take-up-financial-year-ending-2024/quick-guide-to-tables-and-results-for-financial-year-ending-2024", "title": "Quick guide to tables and results for FYE 2024 (Income-related benefits: estimates of take-up)", "date": "2025-10-30", "sha256": "e7f0c259d2413c0c4d2773bbc8fe13a46244f2f97f009838f02bf222095dacac", "local_path": "downloads/takeup_fye2024_quick_guide.json", "doc_type": "html_json", "size_bytes": 12764, "fetched": "2026-08-02", "fetch_mode": "live", "source": "uk_dwp", "publisher": "Department for Work and Pensions"}
+{"url": "https://www.gov.uk/api/content/government/statistics/income-related-benefits-estimates-of-take-up-financial-year-ending-2024/background-information-and-methodology-for-financial-year-ending-2024", "title": "Background information and methodology for FYE 2024 (Income-related benefits: estimates of take-up)", "date": "2025-10-30", "sha256": "a0a7b4dce9fb8584953a4a759afd8035813c6619b96ff55ed76b76275201ab8c", "local_path": "downloads/takeup_fye2024_methodology.json", "doc_type": "html_json", "size_bytes": 159397, "fetched": "2026-08-02", "fetch_mode": "live", "source": "uk_dwp", "publisher": "Department for Work and Pensions"}
+{"url": "https://www.gov.uk/api/content/government/statistics/households-below-average-income-for-financial-years-ending-1995-to-2025/households-below-average-income-background-information-and-methodology-report-fye-2025", "title": "HBAI Background Information and Methodology report FYE 2025 (HTML via content API)", "date": "2026-03-26", "sha256": "b243a8d3b6a22054877f456d04c351ba1d4150487529d26c6d562ae7fb9443c0", "local_path": "downloads/hbai_fye2025_methodology.json", "doc_type": "html_json", "size_bytes": 375957, "fetched": "2026-08-02", "fetch_mode": "live", "source": "uk_dwp", "publisher": "Department for Work and Pensions"}
diff --git a/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_hmrc/NOTES.md b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_hmrc/NOTES.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..7df74f5
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_hmrc/NOTES.md
@@ -0,0 +1,124 @@
+# uk_hmrc harvest notes — 2026-08-02
+
+**2,842 staged claims** from 11 manifested artifacts (10 ODS + 1 bulletin HTML), all
+sha256'd, verbatim values only, per-row provenance (workbook/sheet/row_index),
+zero bot-mitigation bypasses. gov.uk is fully curl-friendly with honest UA
+(`PolicyEngine-Scorecard-Harvest/1.0 (research data collection; contact
+max@maxghenis.com)`); discovery via the gov.uk content API
+(`/api/content/government/statistics/<slug>`) and search API — no scraping needed.
+All ODS parsed with `ods_rows.py` (pure-stdlib parser, handles repeated
+cols/rows); staging scripts `stage_{rr,itl,cb,tc,cgt,spi}.py` are re-runnable.
+
+## Claims by source file
+| file | claims | what |
+|---|---|---|
+| claims_rr.jsonl | 225 | Ready reckoner: 73 illustrative changes x FY2026-27/27-28/28-29 (8 suppressed "Neg") |
+| claims_itl.jsonl | 1,151 | Income Tax liabilities July 2026 edn: 2.1 (UK by band/sex/age 2010-11+), 2.2 (13 countries/regions x band, 2023-24..2026-27), 2.5 (liability x income range x band, 4 years) |
+| claims_cb.jsonl | 515 | Child Benefit Aug 2025: families/children in receipt by geo 2013+, take-up rate (Table 15), HICBC (Table 16), opt-outs (Table 9) |
+| claims_tc.jsonl | 453 | Tax credits finalised awards 2022-23 (FINAL edition): caseloads by family type 2018-19+, entitlement GBP, award-band distribution |
+| claims_cgt.jsonl | 138 | CGT Aug 2025: annual taxpayers/gains/tax 2008-09..2023-24 + 2023-24 by country/region |
+| claims_spi.jsonl | 360 | SPI 2023-24: income percentile points before/after tax (3.1 named pctiles 2015-16+; 3.1a full 1-99 for 2023-24) |
+
+## UK-FLEET conventions applied
+- `proposed_unit: "gbp"` on every money row; conversions per-row in `unit_note`
+  (GBP millions x 1e6, thousands x 1e3; verbatim printed string kept in `value_raw`).
+- `time_basis: fiscal_year` + `conditions.fy` ("2026-27") for Apr–Mar years;
+  Child Benefit August/May snapshots are `point_in_time` + `conditions.as_of`.
+- `conditions.basis`: outturn | projected | provisional, from each table's own
+  markers (see per-source gotchas). Geography labels verbatim; ONS area codes
+  carried as `conditions.area_code` where printed.
+- proposed metrics (recur across sheets, several match the CBO harvest):
+  `taxpayer_count` (909), `tax_liability` (214), `income_aggregate` (48),
+  `income_percentile_point` (360), `average_tax_rate` (48, staged as ODS
+  fraction, e.g. 0.015 for printed "1.5%"), `average_tax_amount` (48),
+  `chargeable_gains` (46). In-vocab: revenue_change, caseload,
+  participant_count, participation_rate, benefit_cost.
+
+## Per-source notes and gotchas
+
+### Ready reckoner (the reform-score surface)
+- June 2025 edition (published 2025-06-24) is the LIVE latest; covers
+  FY2026-27..2028-29. No 2026 edition existed on the live page at harvest time.
+- Sign semantics are LOAD-BEARING (staged per row as
+  `conditions.direction_semantics` + `sign_convention`): rows suffixed
+  "(cost)" report a positive number as a cost, "(yield)" as a yield; bulletin
+  note 33: "negative values for costs indicate net yield and negative values
+  for yields are a net costs". CGT/SDLT-additional-dwellings rows go NEGATIVE
+  (behavioural loss from a rate rise) — HMRC's estimates INCLUDE behavioural
+  response, so static PE-UK scores will legitimately diverge on
+  additional-rate, CGT and SDLT rows (diagnosis material, not error).
+- "Neg" = "larger than zero but would round down to zero" (verbatim sheet
+  note) — 8 cells staged as status=suppressed with value_raw="Neg".
+- Non-linearity warning (bulletin): allowance/limit changes don't scale
+  linearly; 1p rate changes roughly do.
+
+### Income Tax liabilities (July 2026 edition — post-cutoff fresh)
+- SPI 2023-24 outturn; 2024-25..2026-27 projected per footnote 10 on "economic
+  assumptions consistent with the OBR's March 2026 Economic and Fiscal
+  Outlook" — carried as basis=projected.
+- Scottish band-classification footnotes (8/9/11) matter for band counts:
+  Scottish taxpayers are classified against UK-government limits by income,
+  not Scottish marginal rate. `conditions.band` values are verbatim column
+  heads (Savers/Basic/Higher/Additional rate).
+- Table 2.5 "[no estimate]" cells skipped (no value printed). Numbers
+  independently rounded to 3 s.f.; All-Ranges totals cross-check (36,700k
+  taxpayers, GBP 274,000m liability 2023-24 ✓ = Table 2.1 / receipts scale).
+- NOT staged (in the same workbook, parse-ready): 2.4 percentile shares of
+  income/tax, 2.6 liability by income source.
+
+### Child Benefit (data at August 2025)
+- Internal consistency verified: 7,552,330 registered − 684,635 opted out
+  = 6,867,695 in receipt (Aug 2025, UK) ✓.
+- Table 15 is a genuine TAKE-UP rate (participation_rate): % of eligible
+  children for whom CB is claimed INCLUDING opted-out claims — All Ages
+  86.6% May 2025, series back to 2011; per-age staged for May 2025 only.
+- Table 16 HICBC: exact-GBP fiscal-year series; 2024-25 row provisional +
+  rounded to nearest 10k/GBP 10m (note 6) — basis=provisional.
+- Charge-threshold regime note for comparisons: HICBC threshold rose to
+  £60k (taper to £80k) from April 2024.
+
+### Tax credits (finalised awards 2022-23)
+- 2022-23 is the FINAL finalised-awards edition — no 2023-24 publication
+  exists on gov.uk (404; program ended 5 April 2025). Historic-validation
+  surface only (UC migration collapse visible: 339k out-of-work families).
+- WORKBOOK STORES NUMBERS AS TEXT (no ODS office:values) incl. "1.4m"
+  shorthand — parse_cell() in stage_tc.py handles both; other workbooks are
+  numeric.
+- Counts are annual AVERAGES of recipient families
+  (`count_basis=average_number`); entitlement rows are finalised annual
+  entitlement GBP. Table 2_3 bands are ANNUAL-ENTITLEMENT bands (not income).
+
+### CGT (August 2025 edition)
+- 2021-22 onwards provisional (table header, staged basis=provisional);
+  2023-24 first appears here: 378k taxpayers, GBP 65,937m gains,
+  GBP 12,086m tax (individuals+trusts).
+- Staged from 2008-09 only: footnote 2 — taper relief pre-2008 makes gains
+  non-comparable.
+- Trusts detail columns and Tables 2 (size of gain), 3 (gain x income) are
+  downloaded + manifested but unstaged (follow-up; Table 3's gain-x-taxable-
+  income grid is the most PE-comparable of the three).
+
+### SPI personal incomes (2023-24, March 2026 release)
+- Percentile points are of the TAXPAYER income distribution (SPI covers only
+  individuals above the PA threshold) — carried verbatim in
+  conditions.population; do NOT compare against all-adult percentiles.
+- 3.1 vs 3.1a overlap rows agree exactly (median before-tax 2023-24
+  GBP 29,700 in both) — cross-check passed.
+- NOT staged (manifested, parse-ready): 3.2-3.11 (age/sex/source
+  distributions) and the second workbook Collated_Tables_3_12_to_3_15a_2324.ods
+  (region/country/LA-level income + tax) — biggest remaining SPI value.
+
+## Blockers / follow-ups
+1. No blockers hit: no Cloudflare/DataDome anywhere on gov.uk or
+   assets.publishing.service.gov.uk; every fetch was a clean 200.
+2. Unstaged-but-downloaded: ITL 2.4/2.6; CGT Tables 2/3 (+ Table 4 BADR,
+   6-9 not downloaded); SPI 3.2-3.11 + regional workbook; CB small-area file
+   and Tables 2-8/10-14/17 detail.
+3. Not fetched (deliberate, out of 30-artifact budget): ITL tables 2.7-2.11
+   (separate publications), historic 2.1a/2.5a, Child Benefit August 2026
+   release (not yet published; annual ~Aug), HMRC receipts monthly bulletin
+   (harvest-obr/hmt overlap), UK income dynamics/NICs tables.
+4. Ready reckoner June 2026 edition: watch the live page — the June 2025
+   ODS is current as of today.
+5. Ingest schema: same gbp UnitConcept extension as the rest of the UK fleet;
+   percentile/band/fy/basis/as_of condition keys to standardize.
diff --git a/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_hmrc/claims_staged.jsonl.gz b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_hmrc/claims_staged.jsonl.gz
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..e9ab465
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diff --git a/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_hmrc/manifest.jsonl b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_hmrc/manifest.jsonl
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..d68fcec
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_hmrc/manifest.jsonl
@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
+{"url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/68552862b46781eacfd71d71/June_2025_TRR_ODS__1_.ods", "title": "Direct effects of illustrative tax changes (June 2025)", "date": "2013-10-28", "publication_title": "Direct effects of illustrative tax changes", "publication_url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/direct-effects-of-illustrative-tax-changes", "updated": "2025-06-24", "sha256": "1201953391d6201d1df8df4d60288c9094b43e0679ebf285e82ad3c912d476c1", "local_path": "downloads/June_2025_TRR_ODS__1_.ods", "doc_type": "statistics_table", "bytes": 8236}
+{"url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a5a49b47eb057103bd946a4/Collated_Income_Tax_liabilities_statistics_tables_-_2.1_to_2.6.ods", "title": "Collated Tables 2.1 to 2.6", "date": "2026-07-15", "publication_title": "Income Tax liabilities statistics: tax year 2023 to 2024 to tax year 2026 to 2027", "publication_url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/income-tax-liabilities-statistics-tax-year-2023-to-2024-to-tax-year-2026-to-2027", "updated": "2026-07-15", "sha256": "40e1c7bb75d484132e8329fcac75f16e1a96305302fc422ee446a688d52bdbc2", "local_path": "downloads/Collated_Income_Tax_liabilities_statistics_tables_-_2.1_to_2.6.ods", "doc_type": "statistics_table", "bytes": 93036}
+{"url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69f1f12d2fae53a03709682f/Collated_Tables_3_1_to_3_11_2324.ods", "title": "Personal Income Statistics Tables 3.1 to 3.11 for the tax year 2023 to 2024", "date": "2026-04-29", "publication_title": "Personal Incomes Statistics for the tax year 2023 to 2024", "publication_url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/personal-incomes-statistics-for-the-tax-year-2023-to-2024", "updated": "2026-04-29", "sha256": "ad063b06b2bdeef8600dbbb09d48153337a4966f8c7eea50df7a2e0304ebd73e", "local_path": "downloads/Collated_Tables_3_1_to_3_11_2324.ods", "doc_type": "statistics_table", "bytes": 166693}
+{"url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69f1f17cc42061e837e3ac3b/Collated_Tables_3_12_to_3_15a_2324.ods", "title": "Personal Incomes Statistics Tables 3.12 to 3.15a for the tax year 2023 to 2024", "date": "2026-04-29", "publication_title": "Personal Incomes Statistics for the tax year 2023 to 2024", "publication_url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/personal-incomes-statistics-for-the-tax-year-2023-to-2024", "updated": "2026-04-29", "sha256": "f70e210eb2931d9a6da5f8b6fa184b902b51ef9e2c9fb3588323907647d7672c", "local_path": "downloads/Collated_Tables_3_12_to_3_15a_2324.ods", "doc_type": "statistics_table", "bytes": 926081}
+{"url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69e5f48c3e3b4e9340cc92b5/Child_Benefit_August_2025_Main_Tables.ods", "title": "Child Benefit August 2025 Main Tables", "date": "2026-04-23", "publication_title": "Child Benefit Statistics: annual release, August 2025", "publication_url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/child-benefit-statistics-annual-release-august-2025", "updated": "2026-04-23", "sha256": "c2064c6cc03af2ea60f21129e5531d957556bb67423e89bdd8b1d074ac5819c1", "local_path": "downloads/Child_Benefit_August_2025_Main_Tables.ods", "doc_type": "statistics_table", "bytes": 396039}
+{"url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6878ac497ea209168636386e/Table_1_2025_Taxpayer_numbers_gains_and_tax_liabilities.ods", "title": "Table 1: Estimated number of taxpayers, amounts of gains and tax liabilities by year of disposal", "date": "2013-10-31", "publication_title": "Capital Gains Tax statistics", "publication_url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/capital-gains-tax-statistics", "updated": "2025-07-24", "sha256": "95c1bb1548483cb0ed0090e820a1fba129d725ade418cf64e5f85793655e92a1", "local_path": "downloads/Table_1_2025_Taxpayer_numbers_gains_and_tax_liabilities.ods", "doc_type": "statistics_table", "bytes": 10002}
+{"url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6878ac562bad77c3dae4dcef/Table_2_2025_Size_of_gain.ods", "title": "Table 2: Estimated number of taxpayers, amounts of gains and tax liabilities by size of gain", "date": "2013-10-31", "publication_title": "Capital Gains Tax statistics", "publication_url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/capital-gains-tax-statistics", "updated": "2025-07-24", "sha256": "696456114f408edd84c004fbe6175d918c5a511b6aaa7a53a95ca8936db22491", "local_path": "downloads/Table_2_2025_Size_of_gain.ods", "doc_type": "statistics_table", "bytes": 10658}
+{"url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6878ac62760bf6cedaf5bd93/Table_3_2025_Size_of_gain_by_income.ods", "title": "Table 3: Estimated number of individual taxpayers by size of gain and taxable income", "date": "2013-10-31", "publication_title": "Capital Gains Tax statistics", "publication_url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/capital-gains-tax-statistics", "updated": "2025-07-24", "sha256": "8e75c00bab949348a7238fea6d995f626c85e5d02813b46606dd7fea85e9d0c3", "local_path": "downloads/Table_3_2025_Size_of_gain_by_income.ods", "doc_type": "statistics_table", "bytes": 11996}
+{"url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6878ac7c760bf6cedaf5bd95/Table_5_2025_Regional_and_country_statistics.ods", "title": "Table 5: Estimated number of taxpayers, amounts of gains and tax liabilities by UK country and region", "date": "2013-10-31", "publication_title": "Capital Gains Tax statistics", "publication_url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/capital-gains-tax-statistics", "updated": "2025-07-24", "sha256": "4e9a064ac51e0e88f7608fea3a62ed7293c4089bf948fef043784331c7187b05", "local_path": "downloads/Table_5_2025_Regional_and_country_statistics.ods", "doc_type": "statistics_table", "bytes": 7439}
+{"url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/669a503a0808eaf43b50d2e4/Finalised_Awards_2023_Main.ods", "title": "Child and Working Tax Credits Finalised Annual Awards 2022 to 2023 Main Tables", "date": "2024-07-24", "publication_title": "Child and Working Tax Credits statistics: Finalised Annual Awards \u2013 2022 to 2023", "publication_url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/child-and-working-tax-credits-statistics-finalised-annual-awards-2022-to-2023", "updated": "2024-07-24", "sha256": "c746a7ad7d8c206ffe0ed1ac0060d2f60d4529de6dd57a72a15a8ffa78e911bf", "local_path": "downloads/Finalised_Awards_2023_Main.ods", "doc_type": "statistics_table", "bytes": 25122}
+{"url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/direct-effects-of-illustrative-tax-changes/direct-effects-of-illustrative-tax-changes-bulletin-january-2025", "title": "Direct effects of illustrative tax changes bulletin (June 2025)", "date": "2025-06-24", "publication_title": "Direct effects of illustrative tax changes", "publication_url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/direct-effects-of-illustrative-tax-changes", "sha256": "d53c7f490b36a665ee6c507ebff703efa18c32ea5fa21118d7925449ad596ddd", "local_path": "downloads/rr_bulletin_june2025.html", "doc_type": "html_bulletin", "bytes": 54074, "access": "govspeak body extracted from gov.uk content API JSON"}
diff --git a/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_hmt/NOTES.md b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_hmt/NOTES.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..313895b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_hmt/NOTES.md
@@ -0,0 +1,1601 @@
+# uk_hmt harvest — HM Treasury fiscal events (gov.uk)
+
+Harvested 2026-08-02 (overnight UK fleet). Access: all direct `curl` with honest UA
+`PolicyEngine-Scorecard-Harvester/1.0 (research; contact: max@policyengine.org)` — gov.uk and
+assets.publishing.service.gov.uk served everything without any bot mitigation. Zero bypasses. Discovery
+via the gov.uk search + content APIs (`/api/search.json`, `/api/content/...`).
+
+## Coverage
+
+Three fiscal events, per the tasking (Autumn Budget 2024; Spring Statement 2025; Budget 2025 — the
+Nov-2025 event is titled "Budget 2025" on gov.uk, not "Autumn Budget 2025"). For each event: policy
+costings document, distributional analysis ("Impact on households"), data-sources document, the fiscal
+event document (Red Book), and the machine-readable scorecard XLSX where published (AB2024 Table 5.1 +
+5.2; B2025 Table 4.1 + 4.2; SS2025 published no XLSX — its scorecard is Table 3.1 inside the Spring
+Statement PDF, parsed from the text layer).
+
+**Spring Statement 2026: no fiscal-event publications exist.** A Spring Statement occurred 3 March 2026
+(HMT published "GDP deflators ... March 2026 (Spring Statement)" and the Debt Management Report 2026-27
+that day), but gov.uk search/content APIs surface NO Spring Statement 2026 document, policy costings, or
+distributional analysis — consistent with a forecast-only statement with no scorecard. Any March-2026
+measures would appear in the OBR March 2026 EFO (harvest-obr's territory).
+
+## Staged claims: 1368 rows
+
+| block | rows |
+|---|---|
+| Autumn Budget 2024 — exchequer_impact | 450 |
+| Autumn Budget 2024 — median_gross_income | 50 |
+| Budget 2025 — exchequer_impact | 546 |
+| Budget 2025 — median_gross_income | 50 |
+| Spring Statement 2025 — exchequer_impact | 222 |
+| Spring Statement 2025 — median_gross_income | 50 |
+
+Blocks:
+1. **Scorecard per-measure Exchequer impacts** (proposed_metric `exchequer_impact`, proposed_unit `gbp`):
+   AB2024 Table 5.1 (70 measures + 5 total/subtotal lines, FY2024-25..2029-30, from XLSX);
+   B2025 Table 4.1 (88 measures + 3 totals, FY2025-26..2030-31, from XLSX);
+   SS2025 Table 3.1 (33 measures incl. 2 `o/w` sub-lines + 4 totals, FY2024-25..2029-30, from PDF text layer).
+   reform_hint = verbatim measure name. Values £m as printed (value_raw), converted ×1e6 to GBP.
+2. **Distributional-analysis annex Table 2.C** (proposed_metric `median_gross_income`, proposed_unit `gbp`):
+   median gross income by decile × household composition, one table per event (AB2024: 2025-26;
+   SS2025 and B2025: 2028-29). 10 deciles × 5 compositions × 3 events = 150 rows (blank cells staged
+   suppressed with the verbatim small-sample footnote).
+
+## Conventions (LOAD-BEARING — read before ingest)
+
+- **Sign, SS2025 (STATED verbatim, incl. HMT's typo):** "Costings reflect the OBR's latest economic and
+  fiscal determinants. Figures given as fiscal impacts, postive numbers showing savings and negative
+  numbers costs." (Table 3.1 footnote 1.)
+- **Sign, AB2024/B2025 XLSX:** no explicit legend in the workbooks. OBSERVED convention matches SS2025:
+  announced giveaways/spending increases carry negative values (e.g. AB2024 line 1 "Investing in Public
+  Services: Funding..." = −26,450 in 2024-25), takeaways positive (Employer NICs +23,770 in 2025-26,
+  cross-checked against the AB2024 policy-costings note's "+23,770m"). Recorded per row as sign_note.
+- **Fiscal years Apr–Mar.** period = int(first year of the FY label); time_basis = fiscal_year;
+  conditions.fiscal_year carries the verbatim label ("2025-26").
+- **Metric choice:** staged as proposed_metric `exchequer_impact`, NOT `revenue_change`, deliberately.
+  The tables' concept is total Exchequer impact on PSNB (National Accounts basis, OBR-certified), and
+  scorecard footnote (verbatim): "Many measures have both tax and spend impacts. Measures are identified
+  as tax or spend on the basis of their largest impact." So even head=Tax rows can include spend-side
+  effects. Mapping Tax-head rows to Metric.REVENUE_CHANGE is an ingest decision; conditions.head carries
+  the verbatim Tax/Spend classification (Table 5.1/4.1 only — Table 3.1 has no head column; its totals
+  split into "Total spending impact" and "Total tax & fees impact" rows instead).
+- **OBR certification (verbatim, AB2024 costings intro):** "These costings are all submitted to the
+  independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) for their certification. All measures were
+  certified." And: "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis." The scorecard XLSX
+  footnote: "Costings reflect the OBR's latest economic and fiscal determinants." These ARE the
+  OBR-certified Red Book scorecard tables (Table 4.1-style of the tasking).
+- **B2025 scorecard exclusions (verbatim footnote 2):** "Measures with no net increase to borrowing are
+  not set out on this presentational scorecard. These are increases to levies (Economic Crime Levy,
+  Financial Conduct Authority levies, Immigration Skills Charge, International Student Levy) to fund
+  spending on government priorities, reclassification of spend for Mayoral Combined Authorities and
+  police & fire pensions. AME and tax costings with an impact of less than ±£10 million in every year are
+  excluded from the scorecard."
+- **Rounding:** "Totals may not sum due to rounding." Verified: sum(measures) vs Total row differs by
+  ≤£30m per column in every table (measures rounded to £5m).
+
+## Distributional analysis — income concept and equivalisation (VERBATIM, AB2024 §2.7–2.8; SS2025 §2.7 and B2025 §2.7 confirmed to carry the same "before housing costs" + "modified OECD" definitions)
+
+```
+2.7  This distributional analysis uses equivalised net household
+income, before housing costs, as the main indicator by which to rank
+households from lowest income to highest income. This indicator is
+comprised of several components:
+•   ‘Equivalised’: equivalisation is a process that adjusts a household’s
+    net income to take into account the fact that larger households will
+    require a higher net income to achieve the same standard of living
+    as a household with fewer members. The equivalisation factors used
+    in the analysis are the modified OECD factors (as also used in DWP’s
+    Households Below Average Income publication)
+
+•   ‘Net’: household incomes are ranked after deductions from direct
+    taxes, and after additions from welfare benefits. Deductions from
+    indirect taxes, or additions through benefits-in-kind from public
+    services, are not used to rank households
+
+•   ‘Household’: incomes are assessed in aggregate at the household,
+    not individual level. Comparing household, rather than individual,
+    incomes reduces the subjectivity of this analysis, ensuring that no
+    assumptions are made about how incomes or expenditure are
+    shared between separate individuals within the household
+
+•   ‘Before housing costs’: housing costs such as rent or the cost of
+    servicing a mortgage are not deducted from household incomes
+2.8    The household income distribution is created by ranking
+households from the lowest equivalised net income to the highest
+equivalised net income, and then dividing this ranking into ten equally
+sized groups called deciles, across which the analysis is produced.
+
+
+
+
+4 DWP, Income Dynamics: Movements between quintiles: 2010 to 2022, March 2024.
+
+                                                   13
+```
+
+Model basis (verbatim, AB2024 §2.11):
+
+```
+2.11   Where possible, tax and welfare policy changes are analysed
+using HM Treasury’s Intra-Governmental Tax and Benefit
+Microsimulation model (IGOTM), which is underpinned by data from
+the ONS’s Living Costs and Food (LCF) survey. The sample size of the
+LCF means that in order to produce robust analysis three years of data
+have been pooled together, specifically 2017-18 to 2019-206. This data is
+then projected forward to reflect the financial year being modelled,
+using historical Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings data on earnings
+growth at different points across the income distribution as well as the
+latest Office for Budget Responsibility average earnings and inflation
+forecasts. The model generally makes no changes to the underlying
+demographics, employment levels or expenditure patterns in the base
+data.
+```
+
+So for every distributional row: income_concept = equivalised net household income, **BHC** (before
+housing costs); equivalisation = **modified OECD** (HBAI-consistent); model = HMT IGOTM on pooled LCF
+2017-18 to 2019-20. The annex Table 2.C cells themselves are **unequivalised household GROSS income**
+medians ("pre-tax private income including earnings, private pensions, savings and investments, plus
+benefit income") within deciles that are DEFINED by equivalised net BHC income — both facts are in each
+row's conditions.
+
+## Gaps and blockers
+
+1. **Decile impact values (Figures 1.A/1.B/1.C) are chart graphics only.** No data labels in the PDF
+   text layer, no underlying data table in the PDF or the gov.uk HTML rendition (checked SS2025 HTML:
+   its only numeric table is annex Table 2.C). HMT does not publish the chart data. Staging them would
+   require chart digitization = NOT verbatim, so not staged. This is the biggest gap: the per-decile
+   % - of - net - income policy impacts (the headline UK distributional claims) have no published numbers.
+   Options for the platform: (a) FOI/correspondence for the underlying data; (b) digitize with an
+   explicit non-verbatim flag and generous error bars; (c) validate only the published qualitative
+   statements (e.g. AB2024: "all but the richest 10% of households will benefit as a percentage of
+   income from policy decisions in 2025-26").
+2. **Table 5.2 / Table 4.2 (previously-announced measures) downloaded but NOT staged** — same £m-by-FY
+   shape as 5.1/4.1; a rerun of the stager with their column layout covers them.
+3. **SS2025 Table 2.1 (defence/ODA £bn table) not staged** (DEL plans, not tax-benefit measures).
+4. **B2025 Red Book / AB2024 Red Book** downloaded for provenance; their Chapter tables duplicate the
+   staged XLSXs.
+5. Costings-document per-measure "Exchequer impact (£m)" tables equal the scorecard rows (spot-checked
+   Employer NICs; both +23,770m for 2025-26) — not double-staged. The SS2025 costings PDF uses a
+   2-column note layout; its 25 notes parse but with more layout noise (parse_confidence would be
+   medium) — scorecard numbers were taken from Table 3.1 instead.
+
+## PolicyEngine-UK-runnable measures (scorecard rows → parametric reforms)
+
+Directly expressible (measure → PE-UK lever):
+- **AB2024 Employer NICs** (rate 13.8→15%, secondary threshold →£5,000, Employment Allowance →£10,500,
+  cap removed) — the headline £23.8-25.7bn/yr line.
+- **AB2024 CGT main rates 18/24%** (+BADR/IR 14%→18% steps).
+- **AB2024 IHT**: threshold freeze to 2030; pensions into estates (2027); APR/BPR £1m 100%→50% reform.
+- **AB2024 VAT on private school fees** (20% from Jan 2025) + business-rates relief removal.
+- **AB2024 SDLT higher rates** 3→5ppt (additional dwellings).
+- **AB2024 Fuel duty** 5p-cut extension + no RPI uprating 2025-26.
+- **AB2024 Winter Fuel Payments** restriction to Pension Credit recipients.
+- **AB2024 Carer's Allowance earnings limit** to 16h @ NLW.
+- **AB2024 abolition of non-dom regime** (4-year FIG) — partially modellable.
+- **SS2025 PIP 4-point requirement** (from Nov 2026) and **UC health element** (50% cut for new claims,
+  freeze) + **UC standard allowance CPI+5% path** — PE-UK parameter set covers UC rates; PIP assessment
+  change needs an eligibility-share assumption (methodology note captured).
+- **B2025 threshold freeze extension to April 2031** (PA £12,570, HRT £50,270, ART £125,140 + NICs
+  equivalents) — the single biggest B2025 line.
+- **B2025 property/savings/dividend rate rises (+2ppt each, staged years)**.
+- **B2025 salary-sacrifice pension NICs cap (£2,000/yr from April 2029)**.
+- **B2025 removal of the UC two-child limit** (from April 2026) — the child-poverty headline.
+- **B2025 High Value Council Tax Surcharge** (£2m+ homes, from 2028-29) — needs property-value data.
+- **B2025 Winter Fuel Payment targeting** (taxable income ≤£35,000).
+- **B2025 fuel duty** cancel-uprating.
+Comparisons: HMT/OBR-certified totals vs PE-UK microsimulation of the same parametric change;
+divergences decompose into behavioural adjustments (HMT includes them; captured verbatim in the
+methodology notes below), coverage, and data vintage.
+
+## Assumptions registry — verbatim costing methodology notes
+
+Each note below is the full verbatim text (title, measure description, tax/cost base, costing incl.
+behavioural adjustments, Exchequer impact table, uncertainty) from the event's Policy Costings document
+(pdftotext -layout extraction; £m table alignment may wobble but numbers are verbatim).
+
+### [Autumn Budget 2024] Employer National Insurance contributions:
+
+```
+Employer National Insurance contributions:
+Increase rate by 1.2 ppts to 15%, cut the Secondary
+Threshold to £5,000 until 5 April 2028 and uprate
+with CPI thereafter, increase Employment
+Allowance to £10,500, remove the £100,000
+Employment Allowance eligibility threshold
+Measure description
+This measure introduces a number of changes to Employer National
+Insurance Contributions (NICs), including:
+
+• Reducing the Secondary Threshold (ST) from £9,100 annual equivalent to
+  £5,000 annual equivalent, then increasing it in line with CPI from 2028-29;
+
+• Increasing the Employer NICs (ER NICs) rate from 13.8% to 15% (over the ST);
+
+• Increasing the Employment Allowance (EA) from £5,000 to £10,500;
+
+• Removing the Employment Allowance cap, meaning employers with ER
+  NIC liabilities over £100,000 in the previous tax year (but which are
+  otherwise eligible) are able to claim the full £10,500 Employment
+  Allowance.
+This measure will be effective from 6th April 2025.
+
+The tax base
+The tax base includes all employers paying ER NICs from April 2025. This is
+estimated using HMRC’s Personal Tax Model based on the 2021-22 Survey of
+Personal Incomes, projected forward using OBR’s Autumn Budget 2024
+economic determinants.
+
+For the Employment Allowance, the tax base consists of eligible ER NIC
+liabilities between their current Employment Allowance claim and £10,500.
+
+Costing
+The static costing is estimated by applying the pre- and post-measure tax
+regimes to the tax base described above.
+
+The costing also accounts for changes to future incorporations of businesses.
+
+Exchequer impact (£m)
+               2024-25     2025-26      2026-27       2027-28    2028-29        2029-30
+
+ Exchequer       +0m      +23,770m     +23,690m       +24,170m   +24,930m       +25,710m
+ impact
+
+
+Areas of uncertainty
+The main uncertainties in this costing relate to the size of the tax base and
+behavioural response.
+
+
+
+
+                                      38
+```
+
+### [Autumn Budget 2024] Capital Gains Tax: Increase the main rates of CGT
+
+```
+Capital Gains Tax: Increase the main rates of CGT
+to 18% and 24% from 30 October 2024, and the
+Business Asset Disposal Relief (BADR) and
+Investors' Relief (IR) rate to 14% from 6 April 2025
+and to 18% from 6 April 2026
+Measure description
+This measure will increase the Capital Gains Tax (CGT) main rates to 18% and
+24% for the lower and higher rate respectively, to be aligned with the
+existing rates on residential property.
+
+This measure will be effective from 30 October 2024.
+
+The Business Asset Disposal Relief (BADR) and Investors’ Relief (IR) rate will
+also increase to 14% from 6 April 2025 and 18% from 6 April 2026.
+
+The tax base
+The tax base consists of all CGT liable main rate assets and BADR and IR
+eligible assets disposed of during the scorecard period. The tax base is grown
+over that horizon by using the OBR’s Capital Gains Tax forecast.
+
+Costing
+The costing is estimated by applying the pre- and post-measure tax regimes
+to the tax base described above.
+
+The costing then accounts for behavioural responses, such as changing the
+timing of disposals.
+
+Exchequer impact (£m)
+                2024-25    2025-26     2026-27    2027-28     2028-29    2029-30
+
+ Exchequer       +90m      +1,440m     +1,370m    +1,350m    +2,180m     +2,490m
+ impact
+
+
+Areas of uncertainty
+The main uncertainties in this costing relate to the size of the tax base and
+the behavioural response.
+
+
+
+
+                                      39
+```
+
+### [Autumn Budget 2024] Inheritance Tax: Include unused pension funds
+
+```
+Inheritance Tax: Include unused pension funds
+and death benefits payable from a pension in the
+value of estates from 6 April 2027
+Measure description
+This measure brings unused pension funds and death benefits payable from
+a pension into a person’s estate for Inheritance Tax (IHT) purposes.
+
+This measure will be effective from 6 April 2027.
+
+The tax base
+The tax base consists of death estates that contain unused pension funds
+and death benefits. It is estimated using a combination of HMRC
+administrative data and data from the Wealth and Assets Survey.
+
+The tax base is grown over the scorecard period in line with the OBR forecast
+for equity prices.
+
+Costing
+The static costing is estimated by applying the pre- and post-measure tax
+regimes to the tax base described above.
+
+The costing accounts for a behavioural response whereby individuals
+restructure their estates by increasing the rate at which they draw down
+their unused pensions, or by making greater use of other available reliefs and
+exemptions.
+
+Exchequer impact (£m)
+                  2024-25    2025-26   2026-27      2027-28   2028-29    2029-30
+
+ Exchequer          +0m       +0m           +0m     +640m     +1,340m    +1,460m
+ impact
+
+
+Areas of uncertainty
+The main uncertainties in this costing relate to the size of the tax base and
+the behavioural response.
+
+
+
+
+                                       40
+```
+
+### [Autumn Budget 2024] Inheritance Tax: Reform agricultural property
+
+```
+Inheritance Tax: Reform agricultural property
+relief and business property relief from 6 April
+2026 by maintaining 100% relief for the first £1m of
+combined assets and 50% relief thereafter, and
+50% relief for “not listed” shares on the markets of
+a recognised stock exchange
+Measure description
+This measure reforms Agricultural Property Relief (APR) and Business
+Property Relief (BPR). In addition to existing nil-rate bands and exemptions,
+the current 100% rates of relief will continue for the first £1 million of
+combined agricultural and business property. The rate of relief will be 50%
+thereafter, and in all circumstances for shares designated as “not listed” on
+the markets of recognised stock exchanges, such as the Alternative
+Investment Market (AIM).
+
+This measure will be effective from 6 April 2026.
+
+The tax base
+The tax base consists of all estates subject to IHT that are projected to claim
+APR or BPR across the scorecard period. The tax base is estimated using
+HMRC administrative data.
+
+The tax base is grown over the forecast in line with the OBR’s forecast for IHT
+receipts.
+
+Costing
+The static costing is estimated by applying the pre- and post-measure tax
+regimes to the tax base described above.
+
+The costing accounts for a behavioural response whereby individuals
+restructure their estates by making greater use of other available reliefs and
+exemptions.
+
+Exchequer impact (£m)
+                  2024-25    2025-26    2026-27     2027-28    2028-29    2029-30
+
+ Exchequer          +0m        +0m      +230m       +495m      +520m      +520m
+ impact
+
+
+Areas of uncertainty
+The main uncertainties in this costing relate to the size of the tax base and
+the behavioural response.
+
+
+
+
+                                       41
+```
+
+### [Autumn Budget 2024] Inheritance Tax: Maintain thresholds at current
+
+```
+Inheritance Tax: Maintain thresholds at current
+levels for a further two years until 6 April 2030
+Measure description
+This measure fixes the Nil-Rate Band and Residence Nil-Rate Band
+thresholds at £325,000 and £175,000 respectively for tax years 2028-29 and
+2029-30. It also fixes the Residence Nil-Rate Band taper at the current level of
+£2 million.
+
+This measure will be effective from 6 April 2028.
+
+The tax base
+The tax base consists of Inheritance Tax (IHT) liable estates estimated using
+HMRC administrative data and projected using OBR economic
+determinants.
+
+Costing
+The difference between the baseline IHT forecast and the forecast with these
+changes, using the tax base above, gives the estimated static yield of the
+threshold changes.
+
+The costing accounts for a behavioural response whereby some estates
+respond to the change in threshold relative to the pre-measures baseline.
+
+Exchequer impact (£m)
+                  2024-25    2025-26    2026-27     2027-28   2028-29    2029-30
+
+ Exchequer          +0m        +0m          +0m      +0m       +110m      +355m
+ impact
+
+
+Areas of uncertainty
+The main uncertainties in this costing relate to the size of the tax base and
+sensitivity to the CPI forecast.
+
+
+
+
+                                       42
+```
+
+### [Autumn Budget 2024] VAT: Applying the standard rate (20%) to
+
+```
+VAT: Applying the standard rate (20%) to
+education and boarding services provided by
+private schools from 1 January 2025
+Measure description
+This measure introduces VAT on independent school fees at the Standard
+Rate of 20%.
+
+This measure will be effective for school terms commencing on or after 1
+January 2025.
+
+The tax base
+The tax base is the total fee income of private schools. This is estimated by
+multiplying numbers of pupils at independent schools by average fees per
+pupil. Pupil numbers are taken from the DfE school census and devolved
+governments’ data. Average fees for member schools of the Independent
+Schools Council (ISC) are taken from the ISC’s 2024 Census, and for other
+schools are estimated using data from sampling.
+
+The tax base is projected over the forecast period by applying forecast
+growth in average earnings with an uplift based on observed historic growth
+in fees.
+
+Costing
+Additional output VAT is calculated at 20% of the tax base above. This is then
+reduced by estimated input VAT on purchases to arrive at the static costing.
+
+The costing accounts for a behavioural response whereby schools absorb
+part of the VAT liability through reserves and cost reductions, and pass on
+the remainder as fee increases. An elasticity of demand is then applied to the
+resulting average increase in fees. The demand effect is then phased over
+the forecast period based on the expected timing of pupil movements. The
+costing further assumes that expenditure displaced to or from spending on
+school fees, from fee increases or departures from private schools, will partly
+be displaced from or to other Standard Rated expenditure.
+
+Exchequer impact (£m)
+                  2024-25    2025-26   2026-27     2027-28    2028-29    2029-30
+
+ Exchequer        +460m      +1,505m   +1,560m     +1,610m    +1,665m    +1,725m
+ impact
+
+
+Areas of uncertainty
+The main uncertainties in this costing relate to the size of the tax base and
+behavioural responses.
+
+
+
+
+                                       34
+```
+
+### [Autumn Budget 2024] Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT): Increase the Higher
+
+```
+Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT): Increase the Higher
+Rate of Additional Dwelling (HRAD) of SDLT by
+2ppts from 3% to 5% from 31 October 2024
+Measure description
+This measure will increase the Higher Rates for Additional Dwellings (the
+higher rates) surcharge on Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) by 2 percentage
+points from 3% to 5%. It will also increase the single rate of SDLT that is
+charged on the purchase of dwellings costing more than £500,000 by
+corporate bodies from 15% to 17%.
+
+This measure will be effective from 31 October 2024.
+
+The tax base
+The tax base reflects property transactions that currently attract the higher
+rates surcharge and single rate for corporate bodies. It is estimated using
+HMRC’s SDLT microsimulation model, based on transactions in the financial
+year 2022-23, and is grown in line with the OBR’s forecast of residential
+property prices and transactions.
+
+Costing
+The static costing is estimated by applying the pre- and post-measure tax
+regimes to the tax base described above.
+
+The costing accounts for a behavioural response, including impacts on
+residential property transactions liable to the higher rates and the single rate
+for corporate bodies, and on residential property prices. The costing assumes
+that a proportion of the disincentivised higher rates transactions will be
+displaced by primary residence transactions.
+
+Exchequer impact (£m)
+                  2024-25    2025-26    2026-27    2027-28    2028-29    2029-30
+
+ Exchequer         +115m      +90m      +170m       +255m      +280m      +310m
+ impact
+
+
+Areas of uncertainty
+The main uncertainties in this costing relate to the size of the tax base and
+behavioural response.
+
+
+
+
+                                       37
+```
+
+### [Autumn Budget 2024] Fuel duty: One year extension to the 5p cut in
+
+```
+Fuel duty: One year extension to the 5p cut in
+rates and no RPI increase in 2025-26
+Measure description
+This measure freezes the rate of fuel duty for a further 12 months. This
+includes maintaining the 5 pence per litre (ppl) cut, which was first
+implemented on 23 March 2022, on rates for heavy oil (diesel and kerosene),
+unleaded petrol, and light oil, with a proportionate percentage cut
+(equivalent to 5ppl from the main fuel duty rate of 57.95ppl) in other lower
+rates and the rates for rebated fuels where practical.
+The cut is currently due to expire on 23 March 2025 but will be extended to
+22 March 2026.
+
+The tax base
+The tax base is all taxable fuel that is made available for use in the UK. The
+projected volumes of taxable fuel are taken directly from the HMRC fuel duty
+forecasting model.
+
+Costing
+The costing is calculated by taking the forecast baseline and applying the
+difference in the forecast and policy duty rates.
+Behavioural responses are included to account for changes in consumption
+in response to this measure.
+
+Exchequer impact (£m)
+                  2024-25    2025-26   2026-27     2027-28    2028-29    2029-30
+
+ Exchequer         -45m      -3,015m    -880m      -890m       -900m      -890m
+ impact
+
+
+Areas of uncertainty
+The main uncertainties in this costing relate to the size of the tax base and
+the behavioural response.
+
+
+
+
+                                       60
+```
+
+### [Autumn Budget 2024] Winter Fuel Payments: Target payments at
+
+```
+Winter Fuel Payments: Target payments at
+recipients of Pension Credit and certain other
+means-tested benefits from winter 2024-25
+Measure description
+This measure targets Winter Fuel Payments to pensioner households in
+receipt of Pension Credit, Universal Credit, income-related Employment and
+Support Allowance (ESA), income-based Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA),
+Income Support, Child Tax Credit or Working Tax Credit. Winter Fuel
+Payments are devolved to the Scottish Government and the Northern
+Ireland Executive. All figures are on a UK-wide basis, reflecting the Scottish
+Government’s Block Grant Adjustment and Northern Ireland Executive
+funding changes.
+
+This measure will be effective from Winter 2024-25.
+
+The cost base
+The cost base is estimated using benefit caseload, expenditure forecasts and
+official statistics from the DWP publication ‘Income-related benefits:
+estimates of take-up’.
+
+Costing
+The costing is estimated by applying the pre- and post-measure benefit
+regimes to the cost base described above.
+
+A behavioural adjustment is made to account for changes in Pension Credit
+take-up.
+
+Exchequer impact (£m)
+                  2024-25    2025-26   2026-27     2027-28    2028-29    2029-30
+
+ Exchequer        +1,450m    +1,510m   +1,555m     +1,580m    +1,605m    +1,655m
+ impact
+
+
+Areas of uncertainty
+The main uncertainties in this costing relate to the size of the behavioural
+response.
+
+
+
+
+                                       50
+```
+
+### [Autumn Budget 2024] Carer’s Allowance: Increasing the earnings limit to
+
+```
+Carer’s Allowance: Increasing the earnings limit to
+the equivalent of 16 hours at the National Living
+Wage from April 2025
+Measure description
+This measure will raise the Carer’s Allowance Weekly Earnings Limit from
+£151 to the equivalent of 16 hours per week at the National Living Wage
+(£196). The Weekly Earnings Limit will then increase in line with future
+National Living Wage increases.
+
+This measure will be effective from 7 April 2025.
+
+The cost base
+The cost base is DWP’s forecast caseload for Carer’s Allowance and OBR
+projections for increases in the National Living Wage.
+
+Costing
+The costing is calculated by measuring the potential group of new claimants
+who fall between the previously assumed earnings limits and the projected
+new earnings limit. This group has been estimated by using weighted labour
+market data.
+
+Exchequer impact (£m)
+                  2024-25    2025-26    2026-27     2027-28    2028-29    2029-30
+
+ Exchequer          +0m        -25m      -70m        -105m      -135m      -165m
+ impact
+
+
+Areas of uncertainty
+The main uncertainties in this costing relate to the size of the behavioural
+response in relation to levels of take-up of Carer’s Allowance amongst newly
+eligible individuals. Additionally, the precise earnings distribution for carers
+in employment is not known.
+
+
+
+
+                                       64
+```
+
+### [Autumn Budget 2024] Abolition of non-domicile tax status and
+
+```
+Abolition of non-domicile tax status and
+introduction of a residence-based regime: remove
+the 50% discount on foreign income in 2025/26;
+apply inheritance tax; set Capital Gains Tax
+rebasing date at 5 April 2017; and extend the
+Temporary Repatriation Facility from two to three
+years
+Measure description
+The remittance basis of taxation for non-UK domiciled individuals is being
+abolished and replaced with a simpler residence-based regime. Individuals
+opting into the regime will not pay UK tax on foreign income and gains (FIG)
+for the first four years of tax residence, provided they have been non-tax
+resident for the previous 10 years.
+
+This measure introduces a residence-based system for Inheritance Tax and
+the planned 50% reduction in foreign income subject to tax in the first year
+will be scrapped. For Capital Gains Tax purposes, current and past
+remittance basis users will be able to rebase personally held foreign assets to
+5 April 2017 on disposal where certain conditions are met.
+
+Overseas Workday Relief will be extended to a four-year period and will be
+subject to an annual financial limit of the lower of £300,000 or 30% of net
+employment income. This measure also extends the previously announced
+Temporary Repatriation Facility to three years and expands the scope to
+trust structures.
+
+This measure will be effective from 6 April 2025.
+
+The tax base
+The tax base is made up of the foreign assets, income and gains of UK
+residents from HMRC administrative data and is grown over the forecast
+horizon using the OBR forecast for world equity prices.
+
+Costing
+The static costing is estimated by applying the pre- and post-measure tax
+regimes to the tax base described above.
+
+The costing accounts for behavioural responses including migration and tax
+planning.
+
+Exchequer impact (£m)
+               2024-25    2025-26     2026-27       2027-28   2028-29    2029-30
+
+ Exchequer      +0m           *       +4,170m       +5,895m   +2,545m      +95m
+ impact
+
+
+Areas of uncertainty
+The main uncertainties in this costing relate to the size of the tax base and
+behavioural response.
+
+
+                                      32
+```
+
+### [Spring Statement 2025] Personal Independence Payment (PIP): Change
+
+```
+Personal Independence Payment (PIP): Change
+the PIP assessment so claimants must score four
+points in any one activity from 2026-27
+Measure description
+This measure will require those claiming the Personal Independence
+Payment (PIP) to score a minimum of 4 points in at least one activity to
+qualify for a daily living award.
+
+This measure will be effective for new claims from November 2026 and for
+existing claimants at their next award review following this date.
+
+The cost base
+The cost base for this measure is estimated from current and forecasted PIP
+cases and those of passported benefits like Carer’s Allowance and Universal
+Credit Carer’s Element.
+
+Costing
+The costing accounts for AME savings to DWP by estimating the number of
+daily living claims that will no longer meet the new requirement to score a
+minimum of four points in an activity.
+
+The costing also accounts for changes in claimant behaviour as the policy
+becomes more widely known, with varying reductions in volumes impacted
+by the changes over different cohorts.
+
+Exchequer impact (£m)
+                  2024-25   2025-26   2026-27     2027-28    2028-29   2029-30
+
+ Exchequer
+                   +0m        +0m         +210m   +1,755m    +3,365m   +4,515m
+ impact
+
+
+Areas of uncertainty
+The main uncertainty in this costing relates to the size of the behavioural
+response. Additionally, the composition and timing of new claims and award
+reviews could vary compared to the forecast, which is based on recent
+trends.
+
+
+
+
+                                      8
+Personal Independence Payment (PIP): Increase
+capacity for processing award reviews from April
+2026
+```
+
+### [Spring Statement 2025] Work Capability Assessment: Do not proceed with
+
+```
+Work Capability Assessment: Do not proceed with
+Autumn Statement 2023 descriptor reforms
+Measure description
+This measure will cancel the implementation of the reforms to the Work
+Capability Assessment (WCA) announced at Autumn Statement 2023 that
+were due to take effect this year.
+
+The cost base
+The cost base for this measure is the OBR Spring Statement 2025 forecast for
+Employment and Support Allowance (ESA) and Universal Credit Health
+Element (UCHE) spending. This forecast incorporates the estimated impact
+of removing the descriptor reforms as announced at Autumn Statement
+2023.
+
+Costing
+The impact of reversing the decision to remove the reformed descriptors is
+estimated using the same methodology as the original decision scored at
+Autumn Statement 2023, with updates for latest forecasts and other data.
+
+Exchequer impact (£m)
+                  2024-25    2025-26   2026-27     2027-28    2028-29    2029-30
+
+ Exchequer
+                    +0m       +0m       -200m      -730m      -1,205m    -1,645m
+ impact
+
+
+Areas of uncertainty
+The main uncertainty in this costing relates to the size of the behavioural
+response.
+
+
+
+
+                                       10
+```
+
+### [Spring Statement 2025] Universal Credit Health Element: Maintain at 2025-
+
+```
+Universal Credit Health Element: Maintain at 2025-
+26 rate until 2029-30, reduce rate by 50% for new
+claimants from April 2026 and maintain until
+2029-30
+Measure description
+This measure will reduce the gap between the Universal Credit Standard
+Allowance (UCSA) and Health Element (UCHE). From 2026-27, the award rate
+of UCHE will be frozen for existing claimants and new claimants will receive a
+lower award, set at 50% of the Limited Capability for Work- and Work-
+Related Activity (LCWRA) rate for 2026/27. This will be frozen over the
+forecast.
+
+This measure will be effective from 1 April 2026
+
+The cost base
+The cost base for this measure for this measure is the OBR forecast for
+Employment and Support Allowance (ESA) and UCHE spending at Spring
+Statement 2025.
+
+Costing
+The savings from existing claimants are calculated by applying the frozen
+UCHE weekly rate against the counterfactual CPI-uprated weekly rate. For
+new claimants the savings are calculated by applying the 50% rate, against
+the counterfactual current rate uprated by CPI. To find total savings, these
+counterfactuals are applied to the proportion of the caseload which are new
+claims, and which are existing claims, in each year.
+
+Exchequer impact (£m)
+                  2024-25    2025-26        2026-27   2027-28   2028-29   2029-30
+
+ Exchequer
+                    +0m        +0m          +750m     +1,535m   +2,295m   +3,005m
+ impact
+
+
+Areas of uncertainty
+The main uncertainty in this costing relates to the size of the behavioural
+response.
+
+
+
+
+                                       12
+```
+
+### [Spring Statement 2025] Work Capability Assessment: Do not proceed with
+
+```
+Work Capability Assessment: Do not proceed with
+Autumn Statement 2023 descriptor reforms
+Measure description
+This measure will cancel the implementation of the reforms to the Work
+Capability Assessment (WCA) announced at Autumn Statement 2023 that
+were due to take effect this year.
+
+The cost base
+The cost base for this measure is the OBR Spring Statement 2025 forecast for
+Employment and Support Allowance (ESA) and Universal Credit Health
+Element (UCHE) spending. This forecast incorporates the estimated impact
+of removing the descriptor reforms as announced at Autumn Statement
+2023.
+
+Costing
+The impact of reversing the decision to remove the reformed descriptors is
+estimated using the same methodology as the original decision scored at
+Autumn Statement 2023, with updates for latest forecasts and other data.
+
+Exchequer impact (£m)
+                  2024-25    2025-26   2026-27     2027-28    2028-29    2029-30
+
+ Exchequer
+                    +0m       +0m       -200m      -730m      -1,205m    -1,645m
+ impact
+
+
+Areas of uncertainty
+The main uncertainty in this costing relates to the size of the behavioural
+response.
+
+
+
+
+                                       10
+```
+
+### [Budget 2025] Property Income: Introduce separate tax rates for
+
+```
+Property Income: Introduce separate tax rates for
+property income at 22% for the property basic
+rate, 42% for the property higher rate and 47% for
+the property additional rate, from 6 April 2027
+Measure description
+This measure creates a separate income tax rate for property rental income
+which increases tax on property income for unincorporated landlords by
+adding 2 percentage points to the basic rate, higher rate, and additional rate.
+
+This measure will be effective from 6 April 2027.
+
+The tax base
+The tax base consists of all individuals and partnerships that receive property
+income. It is estimated using HMRC administrative data from the 2023/24
+Self-Assessment returns.
+
+The tax base is grown over the forecast horizon using the OBR’s forecast for
+growth in land and property income.
+
+Costing
+The costing is estimated by applying the pre- and post-measure tax regimes
+to the tax base described above.
+
+The costing accounts for a behavioural response whereby some landlords
+choose to operate through a company structure rather than as an
+unincorporated business to avoid the increased property income taxation,
+though this response is expected to be limited.
+The costing also accounts for the impact of this measure on rental prices and
+house prices.
+
+Exchequer impact (£m)
+                  2025-26    2026-27   2027-28      2028-29   2029-30    2030-31
+
+ Exchequer          +0m       +0m           +5m     +590m      +435m     +445m
+ impact
+
+
+Areas of uncertainty
+The main uncertainties in this costing relate to the size of the behavioural
+response.
+
+
+
+
+                                       44
+```
+
+### [Budget 2025] Savings Income: Increase tax rates on savings
+
+```
+Savings Income: Increase tax rates on savings
+income by 2ppts at the basic, higher and
+additional rate from 6 April 2027 and maintain the
+Starting Rate of Savings limit at £5000 from April
+2026 to April 2031
+Measure description
+This measure increases the Basic, Higher and Additional Income Tax rates on
+savings income by 2 percentage points. It applies to taxable savings income,
+excluding Individual Savings Account returns and savings income covered
+by the Personal Allowance, Personal Savings Allowance, or the Starting Rate
+for Savings.
+
+This measure will be effective from 6 April 2027.
+
+The tax base
+The tax base consists of taxable savings income held by individuals. This is
+estimated using HMRC’s Personal Tax Model, drawing on administrative data
+from the 2022–23 Survey of Personal Incomes.
+
+The tax base is grown over the forecast horizon using the OBR’s forecast for
+growth in savings income.
+
+Costing
+The costing is estimated by applying the pre- and post-measure tax regimes
+to the tax base described above
+
+The costing accounts for a behavioural response whereby some individuals
+shift their savings into tax-advantaged products such as Individual Savings
+Accounts (ISAs).
+
+Exchequer impact (£m)
+                  2025-26    2026-27    2027-28     2028-29    2029-30       2030-31
+
+ Exchequer          +0m        +5m       +55m       +525m       +470m        +505m
+ impact
+
+
+Areas of uncertainty
+The main uncertainties in this costing relate to the size of the tax base,
+behavioural response, and forecast of future returns to savings.
+
+
+
+
+                                       46
+```
+
+### [Budget 2025] Dividend Income: Increase tax rates on dividend
+
+```
+Dividend Income: Increase tax rates on dividend
+income by 2ppts at the ordinary and upper rate
+from 6 April 2026
+Measure description
+This measure increases the ordinary and upper rate of dividend tax by two
+percentage points.
+
+This measure will be effective from 6 April 2026.
+
+The tax base
+The tax base consists of all taxable dividend income received by individuals.
+This is estimated using HMRC’s Personal Tax Model, using data from the
+2022–23 Survey of Personal Incomes.
+
+The tax base is grown over the forecast horizon using the OBR’s forecast for
+growth in dividend income.
+
+Costing
+The costing is estimated by applying the pre- and post-measure tax regimes
+to the tax base described above.
+
+The costing accounts for a behavioural response whereby individuals reduce
+their taxable dividend income, bring dividend income forward (forestalling),
+or change their decision to incorporate businesses in response to the rate
+increase.
+
+Exchequer impact (£m)
+                  2025-26    2026-27   2027-28      2028-29   2029-30    2030-31
+
+ Exchequer          +0m      +280m      +985m       +1,160m   +1,325m    +1,390m
+ impact
+
+
+Areas of uncertainty
+The main uncertainties in this costing relate to the size of the behavioural
+response.
+
+
+
+
+                                       45
+```
+
+### [Budget 2025] Salary Sacrifice: Limit the value of salary sacrificed
+
+```
+Salary Sacrifice: Limit the value of salary sacrificed
+pension contributions that can receive employee
+and employer NICs relief to £2,000 per year from 6
+April 2029
+Measure description
+This measure applies Class 1 Employee (Primary) and Employer (Secondary)
+National Insurance Contributions (NICs) to “salary sacrificed” pension
+contributions above an annual cap of £2,000, effective from 6 April 2029. The
+policy aims to restrict the incentive for employers and employees to use salary
+sacrifice arrangements for pension contributions to access additional NICs
+savings.
+
+Tax base and data
+The tax base consists of salary sacrifice and bonus sacrifice pension
+contributions above the £2,000 annual cap.
+
+   •   The main data source is the 2024 ONS Annual Survey of Hours and
+       Earnings (ASHE), from which estimates of the number of employees
+       using salary sacrifice and the value of employee pension contributions
+       are made.
+
+   •   The tax base is projected in line with the historic trends and the OBR’s
+       forecast for employment and wage growth.
+In 2024, it is estimated £32bn of pensions contributions used salary sacrifice
+pension arrangements, with the value of contributions predominantly from
+higher and additional rate taxpayers.
+
+Static costing
+The static Exchequer impact is calculated by applying the pre- and post-
+measure tax regimes to the tax base described above. This results in the
+following static costing:
+
+Static Exchequer impact (£m)
+
+              2025-26    2026-27    2027-28    2028-29    2029-30    2030-31
+
+ Exchequer
+              +0m        +0m        +0m        +0m        +4,870m    +5,070m
+ impact
+
+Post-behavioural costing
+The costing includes various behavioural responses, two key ones have been
+set out below:
+
+  Behaviour                Description
+
+
+
+
+                                      47
+  Employers may react      The costing assumes that employers put 5% of
+  to these reforms by      pay growth of the affected population towards
+  changing how they        employer contributions.
+  compensate staff to
+  replicate some of the
+                           Furthermore, the costing assumes a reduction in
+  savings afforded by
+                           the tax base of 5% rising to 10% by the end of the
+  the existing salary
+                           forecast     reflects      other     formalisation
+  sacrifice regime.
+                           arrangements.
+
+
+                           The extent of the adjustment made reflects
+                           HMRC and OBR judgement.
+  Employees        may     The costing assumes an overall 5% reduction in
+  smooth           their   the tax base from this behaviour.
+  contributions
+  between pay periods
+                           This adjustment      reflects   HMRC   and   OBR
+  to make efficient use
+                           judgement.
+  of NICs exemption on
+  contributions under
+  £2k.
+The OBR also assume employers will seek to pass through some costs to
+wages. A behavioural adjustment has been made for this in the costing. The
+OBR's pass-through assumptions are detailed in their Economic and Fiscal
+Outlook.
+
+The costing also accounts for other behaviours, including:
+
+   •   Forestalling prior to the implementation of the measure (the bringing
+       forward of contributions
+   •   Shifting towards other schemes (i.e. ‘net pay arrangements’ or ‘relief at
+       source’)
+   •   Increased contributions to meet auto-enrolment minimums
+   •   Reduction in contributions by individuals in DC schemes
+
+The table below sets out the post-behavioural costing
+
+Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (£m)
+
+                 2025-26   2026-27    2027-28   2028-29    2029-30    2030-31
+ Exchequer
+                 +0m       -40m       -55m      -75m       +4,845m +2,585m
+ impact
+
+Areas of uncertainty
+The main uncertainties relate to behavioural responses, the use of ASHE
+sample data, population growth, and economic factors such as wage growth.
+The extent to which employers and employees will adapt their behaviour in
+response to the measure is particularly uncertain.
+
+
+
+
+                                      48
+```
+
+### [Budget 2025] High Value Council Tax Surcharge: Introduce a
+
+```
+High Value Council Tax Surcharge: Introduce a
+surcharge on owners of residential properties
+valued over £2m in England from 1 April 2028
+Measure description
+The High Value Council Tax Surcharge (HVCTS) introduces a new annual
+charge on owners of properties in England valued at £2.0 million and above,
+taking effect from April 2028. The charge will be based on a targeted
+revaluation exercise carried out by the Valuation Office, on the basis of
+property values in 2026. It will apply in addition to existing Council Tax. Among
+other areas the government will consult on the criteria for and mechanism
+through which to deliver support, reliefs, exemptions and appeals.
+
+Tax base and data
+The tax base comprises properties in England valued above £2 million in 2026.
+Estimates combine commercial valuation data, Council Tax statistics, SDLT
+transaction data, and Valuation Office data. Further adjustments, including for
+social housing, reduce the base by 2.5%. OBR property price forecasts and
+new-build assumptions are used to project property prices and volumes,
+resulting in an estimated 165,000 properties subject to the tax in 2028–29.
+
+Static costing
+Static costing multiplies projected properties by band charges, uprated by CPI
+from 2029–30.
+
+Static Exchequer impact (£m)
+
+                         2025-26          2026-27          2027-28           2028-29          2029-30           2030-31
+ Exchequer               +0m              +0m              +0m               +605             +620m             +635m
+ impact
+
+Post-behavioural costing
+The costing includes two main behavioural responses, which have been set
+out below:
+
+ Behaviour                  Description
+                            Based on a range of studies2, 100% capitalisation is
+ Price                      assumed, phased in over 3 years. The net present value
+                            (NPV) of the annual charge is calculated, assuming it
+ Capitalisation
+                            continues in perpetuity and using a discount rate of 5%. The
+                            price adjustment is phased in gradually: one-third in the
+
+
+
+
+2 Giertz, S.H., Ramezani, R. and Beron, K.J. (2021). Property tax capitalization, a case study of Dallas County. Regional
+
+  Science and Urban Economics, 89, p.103680. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2021.103680.
+
+Coste, J. (2024). Capitalization of Property Tax Incentives: Evidence From Philadelphia. FHFA Staff Working Papers.
+  Available at: https://ideas.repec.org/p/hfa/wpaper/24-01.html.
+
+Smith, O., Palmon, O. and Smith, B.A. (2025). New Evidence on Property Tax Capitalization. Journal of Political Economy,
+  106(5), pp.1099–1128. DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/250041
+
+                                                               51
+                          first year, two-thirds in the second, and full pass-through
+                          from the third year onwards.
+                          Drawing on research into SDLT notches3, the costing
+                          assumes relatively lower demand for properties at values
+                          just above band thresholds. Bunching elasticities of 1.0 to 1.5
+                          are used. These are adjusted downward compared to the
+                          SDLT empirical evidence to reflect the smaller impact on
+ Bunching
+                          credit constraints of a recurring tax compared to an upfront
+                          transaction tax. The elasticities are used to estimate a value
+                          range above a threshold for which properties would see
+                          price effects additional to the capitalisation effect, using the
+                          net present value of the tax.
+
+The costing also includes a small adjustment for changes to the growth in the
+stock of impacted properties.
+
+The costing includes adjustments for compliance, appeals and an assumed
+support scheme:
+
+     •    Non-payment: The assumption reflects the Council Tax non-payment
+          rate uplifted to account for the owners, rather than occupiers, being
+          liable for the tax.
+
+     •    Appeals: Successful appeals are assumed based on Council Tax and
+          Business Rates appeal success rates.
+
+     •    Support scheme and inability to pay: The Wealth and Assets Survey is
+          used to estimate the share of households who may be unable to pay
+          the charge, including those who may qualify for a support scheme,
+          which is to be consulted on.
+
+The costing also accounts for impacts on other tax heads. Price capitalisation
+affects SDLT, CGT, IHT, and ATED receipts. Transaction impacts include
+temporary reductions pre-implementation and increases in churn post-
+implementation, impacting SDLT and CGT receipts.
+
+Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (£m)
+
+                       2025-26          2026-27          2027-28          2028-29          2029-30          2030-31
+ Exchequer
+                       -60m             -120m            -155m            +400m            +430m            +435m
+ impact
+
+
+Areas of uncertainty
+The main uncertainties in this costing surround the size of the tax base,
+behavioural and compliance effects and resultant impacts on other tax heads.
+
+
+
+
+3 Best, M.C. and Kleven, H.J. (2017). Housing Market Responses to Transaction Taxes: Evidence From Notches and
+
+ Stimulus in the U.K. The Review of Economic Studies, 85(1), pp.157–193. doi:https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdx032.
+
+                                                           52
+```
+
+### [Budget 2025] Universal Credit Child Element: Remove the two
+
+```
+Universal Credit Child Element: Remove the two
+child limit from April 2026, taking 450,000
+children out of poverty
+Measure description
+The measure will remove the limit on the number of children a household on
+Universal Credit can claim the child element for.
+
+Cost base and data
+The cost base is the Universal Credit expenditure forecast before removal of
+the two-child limit.
+The main data sources are the Family Resources Survey (FRS) on which
+DWP’s Policy Simulation Model (PSM) based, the UC forecasts and the OBR’s
+economic assumptions, which are both incorporated into the model. UC
+administrative data is also used to account for exceptions to the current
+policy, which are not modelled in the PSM.
+
+Static costing
+The static Exchequer impact is calculated by comparing the baseline
+Universal Credit expenditure forecast before the policy change to
+expenditure after removal of the two-child limit for households with third
+and subsequent children born after April 2017.
+
+Static Exchequer impact (£m)
+
+                     2025-26   2026-27    2027-28     2028-29    2029-30    2030-31
+
+ Exchequer
+                     +0m       -2,055m    -2,250m     -2,445m -2,715m       -2,850m
+ impact
+
+
+Post-behavioural costing
+The costing includes one key behavioural response, which is set out below:
+
+ Behaviour             Description
+
+ Some eligible
+                       Estimated using the Policy Simulation Model (PSM) and
+ households may
+                       Family Resources Survey data. An additional take up rate is
+ begin claiming
+                       applied at 11% for those newly entitled and 22% for
+ due to the higher
+                       previously entitled but non-claiming households. This
+ entitlement or
+                       estimate is uncertain and reflects judgement as to how
+ increased
+                       people will respond to the change.
+ publicity
+
+
+
+The costing assumes no significant impacts assumed for other benefits. The
+PSM modelling accounts for interactions between the policy and the benefit
+cap.
+After applying the behavioural responses above, this results in the following
+post-behavioural costing
+
+
+                                           15
+Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (£m)
+
+                 2025-26   2026-27   2027-28   2028-29   2029-30    2030-31
+
+ Exchequer       +0m       -2,365m   -2,590m   -2,815m   -3,095m    -3,235m
+ impact
+
+
+
+Areas of uncertainty
+The main uncertainties in this costing are on behavioural assumptions. The
+estimate for increased take-up is highly uncertain, and the actual response
+may differ. Costs are also sensitive to wider demographic and
+macroeconomic trends.
+
+
+
+
+                                     16
+```
+
+### [Budget 2025] Winter Fuel Payment: Target to pensioners with
+
+```
+Winter Fuel Payment: Target to pensioners with
+taxable income below or equal to £35,000 from
+Winter 2025
+Measure description
+This measure targets Winter Fuel Payments in England and Wales to
+pensioners with a taxable income below or equal to £35,000. The Winter Fuel
+Payment will be made to all eligible pensioners who do not opt-out and the
+full value of the payment will be recovered via HMRC for individuals with
+taxable incomes exceeding £35,000 and not in receipt of Pension Credit,
+Universal Credit, income-related Employment and Support Allowance (ESA),
+income-based Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA), Income Support, Child Tax Credit
+or Working Tax Credit. This measure will be effective from Winter 2025-26.
+
+Inclusion of devolved government funding implications is without prejudice
+decisions made by those governments. Figures are presented on a UK-wide
+basis for transparency and consistency. Winter heating assistance is
+devolved in Scotland, and Winter Fuel Payments are a transferred matter in
+Northern Ireland. All figures reflect the UK government’s policy impact on
+England and Wales, as well as resulting changes to the Scottish Block Grant
+Adjustment and Northern Ireland Executive funding.
+
+The cost base
+The cost base is estimated using benefit caseload, expenditure forecasts and
+official statistics from the DWP publication ‘Income-related benefits:
+estimates of take-up’.
+
+The tax base for the tax charge consists of all pensioners in England and
+Wales with total income above £35,000 who are in receipt of the Winter Fuel
+Payment. This is estimated using HMRC’s Personal Tax Model, based on
+administrative data from the 2022–23 Survey of Personal Incomes. The tax
+base is grown over the forecast horizon using the OBR’s forecast for growth
+in pensioner incomes.
+
+Costing
+The costing is estimated by applying the pre- and post-measure benefit
+regimes to the cost base described above and accounts for behavioural
+responses of increased Winter Fuel Payment opt outs for those eligible for
+the HMRC recovery.
+
+Exchequer impact (£m)
+                  2025-26    2026-27   2027-28     2028-29    2029-30    2030-31
+
+ Exchequer
+                  -1,785m    -1,390m    -910m      -1,330m    -1,340m    -1,325m
+ impact
+
+
+Areas of uncertainty
+The main uncertainties in this costing relate to the size of the behavioural
+response.
+
+
+                                       84
+Universal Credit: Changes to the standard
+allowance and health element to protect existing
+claimants and new health element claimants who
+meet the Severe Conditions Criteria from April
+2026
+```
+
+### [Budget 2025] Fuel Duty: Cancel uprating for 2026-27; extend the
+
+```
+Fuel Duty: Cancel uprating for 2026-27; extend the
+5p cut in rates to 31 August 2026, then increase by
+1p from 1 September 2026, 2p from 1 December
+2026, and 2p from 1 March 2027
+Measure description
+This measure extends the temporary 5 pence per litre (ppl) cut in fuel duty,
+which was first implemented on 23 March 2022, from 23 March 2026 to 31
+August 2026 on rates for heavy oil (diesel and kerosene), unleaded petrol,
+and light oil, with a proportionate percentage cut (equivalent to 5ppl from
+the main fuel duty rate of 57.95ppl) in other lower rates and the rates for
+rebated fuels where practical.
+
+Rates will then gradually return to early 2022 levels in three stages: for main
+rates, by 1p on 1 September 2026, 2p on 1 December 2026, and 2p on 1 March
+2027, returning to 57.95 pence per litre at that point. The planned increase in
+line with inflation for 2026/27 is also cancelled.
+
+From 1 April 2027, fuel duty rates will be uprated annually in line with the
+Retail Price Index.
+
+This measure will be effective from 23 March 2026.
+
+The tax base
+The tax base is every litre of taxable fuel made available for use in the UK.
+Projected volumes are taken from the fuel duty forecasting model.
+
+Costing
+The costing is calculated by taking the forecast baseline and applying the
+difference in the forecast and policy duty rates.
+
+The static costing is estimated by applying the pre- and post-measure tax
+regimes to the tax base. Behavioural responses are accounted for by
+measuring changes in consumption in response to changes in pump prices,
+with separate elasticities for petrol and diesel reflecting short and long-run
+effects.
+
+Exchequer impact (£m)
+                   2025-26   2026-27    2027-28    2028-29    2029-30    2030-31
+
+Exchequer           -45m     -2,370m     -855m      -855m      -850m      -840m
+impact
+
+
+
+Areas of uncertainty
+The main uncertainties in this costing relate to the size of the tax base and
+the behavioural response.
+
+
+
+
+                                       14
+```
+
+### [Budget 2025] Personal Tax: Maintain the personal income tax
+
+```
+Personal Tax: Maintain the personal income tax
+and equivalent national insurance thresholds at
+current levels for a further three years until April
+2031
+Measure description
+This measure maintains the income tax Personal Allowance at £12,570 and
+the higher rate threshold at £50,270; and the additional rate threshold at
+£125,140, all from April 2028 to April 2031. The Personal Allowance threshold
+applies UK-wide.
+
+The higher rate threshold for non-savings, dividend and property income
+and for property income will apply to taxpayers in England, Wales, and
+Northern Ireland, and for savings and dividend income it will apply UK-wide.
+
+This measure maintains the NICs Primary Threshold (PT) and Lower Profits
+Limit (LPL) at £12,570 from April 2028 until April 2031. The NICs Upper
+Earnings Limit (UEL) and Upper Profits Limit (UPL) will be maintained at
+£50,270 from April 2028 to April 2031. The Upper Secondary Threshold and
+Apprentices Upper Secondary Threshold will stay fixed at £50,270 per annum
+until April 2031, to remain aligned with the UEL and UPL.
+
+This measure will be implemented on 06 April 2028.
+
+Tax base and data
+The tax base is an estimate of the income in excess of the thresholds. This is
+estimated using HMRCs Personal Tax Model. The costing reflects the
+following data sources:
+
+   •   The main source of data is from the 2022-23 Survey of Personal
+       Incomes.
+
+   •   The tax base is projected using the Office for Budget Responsibility
+       (OBR) economic forecast.
+The overall estimate of the tax base in 2028-29 is around £2 trillion of income.
+
+Static costing
+The static exchequer impact is calculated by applying the pre- and post-
+measure tax regimes to the tax base described above. This results in the
+following static costing:
+
+Static Exchequer impact (£m)
+
+              2025-26    2026-27    2027-28    2028-29    2029-30     2030-31
+
+ Exchequer
+              +0m        +0m        +0m        +3,325m     +7,650m    +11,890m
+ impact
+
+
+Post-behavioural costing
+This costing builds in behavioural effects for individuals with income taxable
+at the higher and additional rates of tax. Estimates of the behavioural effects
+of the individuals outlined above are based on the Taxable Income
+                                      40
+Elasticities, which estimates how taxable income changes in response to
+changes in tax rates. These behavioural effects reduce the static costing by
+£180m (1.3%) in 2030-31.
+
+The costing is also adjusted to reflected Tax Motivated Incorporations (TMIs)
+as a result of this measure.
+
+The OBR also expect workers to shift part of the incidence of the tax increase
+onto employers, by bargaining for a higher nominal wage. The impact of this
+on nominal wages and profits is captured in a behavioural adjustment to the
+costing. More detail on the OBR’s assessment is set out in the EFO.
+
+Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (£m)
+
+                        2025-26         2026-27          2027-28          2028-29         2029-30          2030-31
+
+ Exchequer
+                        +0m             +0m              -25m             +3,365m         +7,780m +12,435m
+ impact1
+
+
+Areas of uncertainty
+The main uncertainties in this costing surround CPI growth as well as the
+size of the tax base towards the end of the costing period, and the
+behavioural response.
+
+
+
+
+1 A slightly higher yield from Personal Tax Threshold Freezes is presented in the OBR’s EFO due to an error identified in
+
+  the calculation of the shift of some of the incidence of the tax increase being passed onto employers after the forecast
+  had closed.
+
+                                                            41
+```
+
+## Bonus diagnosis seed
+
+The B2025 Table 4.1 scorecard row for the two-child limit carries HMT's poverty claim inside the verbatim
+measure name: "Universal Credit Child Element: Remove the two child limit from April 2026, taking 450,000
+children out of poverty" (line 6, Spend, −£2,365m in 2026-27). That 450,000-children figure is a
+government poverty_count_change claim directly testable in PolicyEngine-UK (poverty metric + income
+concept unstated in the scorecard itself — the DA documents define HMT's income concepts; DWP's
+HBAI/absolute-vs-relative choice for the 450k is NOT stated here, flag concept_mismatch risk).
diff --git a/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_hmt/claims_staged.jsonl.gz b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_hmt/claims_staged.jsonl.gz
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+{"url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/67e562fc33afcd62e4ca4c9e/SS25_Published_Costing_Document.pdf", "title": "Spring Statement 2025: Policy Costings", "date": "2025-03-26", "sha256": "f3ad1f7cb249010d9db38a769dcc5713f056fcfc0e3fd81d9ceab4a6190ecc39", "local_path": "downloads/SS2025_Policy_Costings.pdf", "doc_type": "policy_costings", "access": "direct curl, honest UA (PolicyEngine-Scorecard-Harvester/1.0, contact max@policyengine.org)", "bytes": 347628, "publication_page": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-spring-statement-2025"}
+{"url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/67e31bdadcd2d93561195bbb/Impact_on_households_-_SS25_FINAL.pdf", "title": "Impact on households: distributional analysis to accompany Spring Statement 2025", "date": "2025-03-26", "sha256": "67f7d72bc11cff4f4eb846d41028eb7dd0fab5aa68fe591b34993d3acf91630b", "local_path": "downloads/SS2025_Impact_on_households.pdf", "doc_type": "distributional_analysis", "access": "direct curl, honest UA (PolicyEngine-Scorecard-Harvester/1.0, contact max@policyengine.org)", "bytes": 148923, "publication_page": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-spring-statement-2025"}
+{"url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/67e2fb4e5698d84e39cfdb3f/Spring_Statement_2025_-_Data_Sources.pdf", "title": "Spring Statement 2025: Data Sources", "date": "2025-03-26", "sha256": "8b2b8678f4bb9f5e32ad4b37d01ae5676a2d7acd9d3b02b46aad8759024c63a5", "local_path": "downloads/SS2025_Data_Sources.pdf", "doc_type": "data_sources", "access": "direct curl, honest UA (PolicyEngine-Scorecard-Harvester/1.0, contact max@policyengine.org)", "bytes": 162950, "publication_page": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-spring-statement-2025"}
+{"url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/67e3ec2df356a2dc0e39b488/E03274109_HMT_Spring_Statement_Mar_25_Web_Accessible_.pdf", "title": "Spring Statement 2025 (web) [contains Table 3.1 policy decisions scorecard]", "date": "2025-03-26", "sha256": "0864d916ba65e647a437730896db938ad3e6492a7666de83fa0cf095366e94de", "local_path": "downloads/SS2025_Document.pdf", "doc_type": "fiscal_event_document", "access": "direct curl, honest UA (PolicyEngine-Scorecard-Harvester/1.0, contact max@policyengine.org)", "bytes": 6766507, "publication_page": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spring-statement-2025-document"}
+{"url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings", "date": "2025-11-26", "sha256": "e4b87104f1a6cd1aeb7081e7815b604a7aa9ff1b760668e4a4c2e4719477fda4", "local_path": "downloads/B2025_Policy_Costings.pdf", "doc_type": "policy_costings", "access": "direct curl, honest UA (PolicyEngine-Scorecard-Harvester/1.0, contact max@policyengine.org)", "bytes": 817945, "publication_page": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2025"}
+{"url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69269c6222424e25e6bc31bb/Impact_on_households.pdf", "title": "Impact on households: distributional analysis to accompany Budget 2025", "date": "2025-11-26", "sha256": "9f7e68f3e44349c8a6a4a89b9e1427cc23f1691771902b154ef67cadd33480ea", "local_path": "downloads/B2025_Impact_on_households.pdf", "doc_type": "distributional_analysis", "access": "direct curl, honest UA (PolicyEngine-Scorecard-Harvester/1.0, contact max@policyengine.org)", "bytes": 198938, "publication_page": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2025"}
+{"url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69269df29fd433badebc31b3/Table_4.1_-_Budget_2025_Policy_Decisions.xlsx", "title": "Table 4.1 Budget 2025 Policy Decisions", "date": "2025-11-26", "sha256": "cf68c672e022a23b4327e8f863380cdd47c286081986a6515ac2ee1e85435921", "local_path": "downloads/B2025_Table_4.1_Policy_Decisions.xlsx", "doc_type": "scorecard_table", "access": "direct curl, honest UA (PolicyEngine-Scorecard-Harvester/1.0, contact max@policyengine.org)", "bytes": 87653, "publication_page": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2025"}
+{"url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692622272945773cf12dd0a0/Table_4.2_-_Measures_announced_at_Spring_Statement_2025_or_earlier_that_will_take_effect_from_27_November_2025_or_later.xlsx", "title": "Table 4.2 Measures announced at Spring Statement 2025 or earlier that will take effect from 27 November 2025 or later", "date": "2025-11-26", "sha256": "0d0e2ca695065fbece681ac5d80f17d2d5a8ebd6a179399a93418c111919d70d", "local_path": "downloads/B2025_Table_4.2_Previously_Announced.xlsx", "doc_type": "scorecard_table", "access": "direct curl, honest UA (PolicyEngine-Scorecard-Harvester/1.0, contact max@policyengine.org)", "bytes": 47159, "publication_page": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2025"}
+{"url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6926ce2fb3b9afff34e95fec/Budget_2025_-_Data_Sources.pdf", "title": "Budget 2025: Data Sources", "date": "2025-11-26", "sha256": "20296a884709230ed28c5261a8864bffedcfb7c9e01cc12fd758bb0cf33a96b3", "local_path": "downloads/B2025_Data_Sources.pdf", "doc_type": "data_sources", "access": "direct curl, honest UA (PolicyEngine-Scorecard-Harvester/1.0, contact max@policyengine.org)", "bytes": 377280, "publication_page": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2025"}
+{"url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6929b353345e31ab14ecf735/E03444720_Budget_2025_Web_Accessible.pdf", "title": "Budget 2025 (web) [Red Book]", "date": "2025-11-26", "sha256": "fc112784bdcfccfd1dc362202dbcc7c54d4f17c2969dafae244e2edead7c468a", "local_path": "downloads/B2025_Red_Book.pdf", "doc_type": "budget_document", "access": "direct curl, honest UA (PolicyEngine-Scorecard-Harvester/1.0, contact max@policyengine.org)", "bytes": 4330185, "publication_page": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2025-document"}
diff --git a/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_ifs/NOTES.md b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_ifs/NOTES.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..48b04d1
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_ifs/NOTES.md
@@ -0,0 +1,145 @@
+# uk_ifs harvest notes — 2026-08-02
+
+268 staged claims from 16 manifested artifacts. All rows source_model **ifs_taxben**
+(research-institute lane), calibration_relationship held_out, values verbatim
+(normalizations declared per row). GBP via `proposed_unit: gbp` / `gbp_per_year`;
+UK fiscal years staged as `time_basis: fiscal_year`, `period` = start year,
+`conditions.fy` label ("2029-30").
+
+## Access recipe (documented for re-harvest)
+- ifs.org.uk Drupal **page routes are Cloudflare-403** ("Just a moment") for curl AND
+  WebFetch — challenge pages kept as evidence (doc_type blocked_403_challenge_html).
+  robots.txt itself is permissive (standard Drupal disallows only /core/, /admin/ etc.).
+- **Unlock: static `/sites/default/files/...` paths serve 200 to plain curl with honest
+  UA** (TPC-style). PDFs and data xlsx all came from there, live.
+- Page HTML (to discover file URLs + provenance): **Wayback snapshots** (availability
+  API → snapshot; `id_` suffix for original bytes). No bot-mitigation bypassed.
+- **IFS charts are Flourish embeds**: `public.flourish.studio/visualisation/<id>/embed`
+  carries the full data JSON (`_Flourish_data`) + settings (title, £ prefix, axis
+  titles, footer note). This is how the Budget 2025 decile chart was captured
+  numerically. Data-item pages name the viz id. Recipe generalizes to every IFS
+  data-item.
+- Drupal `/media/<id>/download` routes (Taxlab spreadsheets) are 403 live and mostly
+  NOT in Wayback → the one-click browser follow-up list.
+- Old `output_url_files/` paths (pre-migration) 404 live; Wayback has original bytes.
+
+## What was staged
+1. **Budget 2025 decile chart** (22 rows, `avg_change_household_net_income`,
+   gbp_per_year): 2026-27 and 2030-31, deciles Poorest..Richest + All, from Flourish
+   viz 26495404. Scope note verbatim on every row — package includes two-child-limit
+   scrapping, fuel duty freeze + 5p-cut-removal delay, three more years of threshold
+   freezes, high-value council tax surcharge; EXCLUDES savings/dividend/property-income
+   rises, salary-sacrifice reform, some energy reforms ("Including these would make the
+   2030-31 picture more progressive"). **Excludes Scotland.**
+   ⚠️ Income concept: x-axis is "Household income decile"; equivalisation and BHC/AHC
+   are NOT stated in the captured chart or deck — flagged per row, do not assume until
+   the underlying report states it.
+2. **Green Budget 2025 Table 4.1** (28 revenue_change rows incl. deck £13bn): 27
+   costed tax rises for 2029-30 (income tax, NICs, freezes, VAT, CT, capital, pensions,
+   IHT, council tax [England only], fuel duty). "£6 billion" for abolishing the
+   residence nil-rate band **visually verified** against rendered p.157.
+   ⚠️ These are a MIX of sources (per table source line, carried verbatim in every
+   row's `costing_basis`): HMRC Ready Reckoner projected to 2029-30 with OBR nominal
+   GDP growth is the usual starting point; employer NICs + threshold-freeze rows
+   combine HMRC estimates with TAXBEN; several rows from HMRC/OBR/MHCLG/Advani-Sturrock
+   (per-row `row_source_note`). NOT pure TAXBEN, NOT administrative fact.
+3. **Waters Budget-2025 deck claims** (5 rows): freeze extension £13bn by 2030-31
+   (with verbatim uncertainty: ~25% chance >£21bn, ~25% <£8bn); freeze-as-a-whole
+   taxpayer counts (5.2m into income tax, 4.8m into higher rate by 2030-31); two-child
+   limit scrap £3.2bn cost 2029-30 + 560,000 families gaining (attribution flagged:
+   may restate official costing — triangulation candidate).
+4. **GB2024 Ch.6 Table 6.5** (109 rows): 12 child-poverty policy packages × {annual
+   cost, 3 spending-share splits, child abs-poverty count & ppt reduction, cost per
+   child lifted out, overall count & ppt} + the 23% simulated baseline rate.
+   **Pure TAXBEN** ("Authors' calculations using Family Resources Survey 2022-23 and
+   TAXBEN"). Steady-state at full two-child-limit rollout (staged period=2035 with
+   explicit time_note — treat as counterfactual marker, not forecast year). NI
+   excluded. Poverty reductions staged as NEGATIVE changes with printed magnitudes in
+   value_raw. Headliner: remove two-child limit = £2,450m, −540k children (−4ppt),
+   £4,510/child.
+5. **GB2024 Fig 6.1 workbook** (104 rows, poverty_rate levels): child poverty
+   1997-98..2022-23 × {relative, absolute} × {AHC, BHC}, full float precision from
+   xlsx. Equivalisation/thresholds verbatim in every row (modified OECD; rel = 60%
+   contemporaneous median; abs = 60% of 2010-11 median; ≤2003-04 excludes NI).
+   ⚠️ These are FRS/HBAI-consistent calculations, NOT TAXBEN simulations — flagged
+   per row; likely overlap DWP HBAI series → dedup vs uk_dwp at ingest.
+
+## TAXBEN assumptions registry (#10) — verbatim from the 2021 guide
+(TAXBEN_Guide_2021.pdf, sha256 b19a90c7…, retrieved via Wayback; full text in
+downloads/TAXBEN_Guide_2021.txt. Quotes exact.)
+- Static default: "TAXBEN calculates what the impact of policy reforms would be on
+  households' finances if those households did not change their behaviour in response."
+- Take-up: "TAXBEN analysis is usually done on an 'entitlements basis' — that is, we
+  measure what net incomes would be if individuals claimed all the benefits that they
+  are entitled to." (vs 'reported take-up basis' option; entitlements basis will
+  "overstate … the impact of benefit reforms on actual incomes".)
+- Taxes: "we analyse taxes on a 'liabilities basis' — we calculate what net incomes
+  would be on the assumption that individuals do not evade tax."
+- Incidence: "In TAXBEN analysis, we generally look at what would happen to incomes if
+  all changes to taxes and benefits were fully incident on the directly affected
+  households. This includes taxes such as VAT or employer National Insurance
+  contributions."
+- Top of the distribution: "tax reforms which only affect top earners cannot generally
+  be modelled reliably using the survey data … Instead, for distributional analysis, we
+  use the survey datasets … to estimate the frequency with which affected individuals
+  appear in different deciles … We then use that frequency to break the official
+  costing of the policy (before behavioural response, wherever that is available) into
+  different deciles." ⚠️ IFS decile charts for top-end measures EMBED official costings.
+- Disability & contributory benefits: "modell[ed] … on a reported take-up basis: only
+  those who say that they claim are modelled as entitled."
+- Scope: models income tax, NICs (employer and employee), council tax, VAT, most
+  duties ("about three quarters of total government tax revenue" in 2017-18), almost
+  all benefits/tax credits/state pensions. Does NOT model capital taxes (CGT, IHT,
+  stamp duty), business taxes (corporation tax, business rates), or public services.
+- Data: FRS (~20k households/yr, main source), LCFS (~5k, indirect taxes),
+  Understanding Society/BHPS (panel). Systems since 1975 simulable.
+- Aggregation: "into 'deciles', where we calculate the effect of reform on average
+  incomes in the bottom 10% …" (deciles of household income; the guide does not state
+  the equivalisation scale — GB2024 Fig 6.1 note separately confirms modified OECD for
+  poverty analysis).
+- Employer-NICs incidence in Budget-2025 deck (separate, verbatim slide note):
+  "Assumes rise in employer NICs is incident on employees".
+- Green Budget costings caveat (GB2025 Table 4.1 note): HMRC Ready Reckoner "typically
+  incorporates the direct impact of a measure on the tax base to which it is being
+  applied, or to closely related tax bases [but not] effects on other tax bases and
+  wider economic factors"; most other sources "purely 'mechanical' estimates".
+
+## Triangulation set (IFS vs OBR/HMT, same measures)
+- **Two-child limit scrapping** — IFS deck: £3.2bn cost 2029-30, 560k families; IFS
+  GB2024 steady state: £2,450m, −540k children. vs OBR Autumn Budget 2025 policy
+  costing + HMT distributional analysis + DWP poverty estimate (deck cites "Gov't
+  estimates … 450,000 / 3.1ppt" — NOT staged, it's the government's number).
+- **Threshold freeze extension to April 2031** — IFS £13bn by 2030-31 (w/ uncertainty
+  band) vs OBR's certified costing of the same measure. IFS £10.4bn (GB2025, freeze to
+  April 2030, pre-Budget hypothetical) is a variant, not the enacted measure.
+- **Fuel duty** — Budget package includes freeze + 5p-cut delay (in decile rows);
+  GB2025 has 10% rise = £2.4bn hypothetical. vs OBR fuel-duty costings.
+- **High value council tax surcharge** — in IFS decile package; OBR/HMT costed it.
+- **Employer NICs / VAT / CT ready-reckoner rows** overlap HMRC's own Ready Reckoner
+  (uk_hmrc lane) — expected NEAR-DUPES by construction (IFS projects HMRC numbers
+  forward); adjudicate as vintage/projection differences, not model disagreement.
+- **Fig 6.1 poverty levels** overlap DWP HBAI (uk_dwp) — same-microdata restatement.
+
+## Gaps / follow-ups (one click each in a real browser)
+- Taxlab **revenue composition spreadsheet** (/media/9899/download) + IFS Fiscal Facts
+  parameter workbooks — Cloudflare-403, not in Wayback. P4 (mode-1 levels) therefore
+  UNFILLED except via other lanes (OBR/HMRC cover the same levels with better
+  provenance).
+- **Indirect & capital taxes deck** downloaded but not staged (mostly charts; needs
+  the same Flourish-id hunt via its data-items).
+- GB2025 full report has more parsable tables (Ch.3 public finances; Ch.8 disability
+  benefits) — full-report text is in downloads/ for a second pass.
+- Two-child-limit standalone pieces ("The two-child limit: poverty, incentives and
+  cost", Mar 2025 comment; 670k-children projection) — pages archived in Wayback,
+  not yet pulled.
+- IFS **data-items index** (ifs.org.uk/data-items) would enumerate every Flourish viz
+  id → systematic numeric capture of all IFS budget/event charts. Needs browser or
+  Wayback crawl.
+- Autumn Budget 2025 decile chart: pin down equivalisation/BHC-AHC from the underlying
+  IFS budget-analysis report when accessible.
+
+## Parse confidence
+High throughout: Flourish values machine-read from embed JSON; Table 4.1 from layout
+text with one visual verification (RNRB £6bn); Table 6.5 all 12 rows column-checked
+against prose restatements (540k/£4,510/£2.5bn long-run figure cross-consistent);
+Fig 6.1 machine-read from xlsx at full float precision. No OCR anywhere.
diff --git a/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_ifs/claims_staged.jsonl.gz b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_ifs/claims_staged.jsonl.gz
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..265ef55
Binary files /dev/null and b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_ifs/claims_staged.jsonl.gz differ
diff --git a/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_ifs/manifest.jsonl b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_ifs/manifest.jsonl
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..9f50510
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_ifs/manifest.jsonl
@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+{"url": "https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2025-10/Final_The_IFS_Green_Budget_2025_full_report_amended%202.pdf", "title": "The IFS Green Budget: October 2025 (full report, amended)", "date": "2025-10", "sha256": "6a15b57847cdfe3ab7f77205b56ea0c6f29438a4ad429c534226d1587e8f57a1", "bytes": 5575529, "local_path": "~/scorecard-harvest/uk_ifs/downloads/GreenBudget2025_full_report.pdf", "doc_type": "report_pdf", "note": "fetched LIVE from static path with honest UA (static /sites/default/files/ not Cloudflare-challenged)"}
+{"url": "https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2025-12/Personal_tax_and_benefits_TW.pdf", "title": "Personal tax and benefits - IFS Autumn Budget 2025 analysis presentation (Tom Waters)", "date": "2025-11-27", "sha256": "086dbafacfcc336faf48c944233c1d0f3b49c0310361d3f8c8785c17746c7031", "bytes": 174553, "local_path": "~/scorecard-harvest/uk_ifs/downloads/Budget2025_Personal_tax_and_benefits_TW.pdf", "doc_type": "presentation_pdf", "note": "fetched LIVE from static path"}
+{"url": "https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2025-11/The_public_finances_more_of_everything_NR.pdf", "title": "The public finances: more of everything - IFS Autumn Budget 2025 analysis presentation", "date": "2025-11-27", "sha256": "7b3f7dab9e2d78d0c1aef19985a954d1263b6d36aa3ee1a275d0f525ba224b00", "bytes": 230343, "local_path": "~/scorecard-harvest/uk_ifs/downloads/Budget2025_public_finances_NR.pdf", "doc_type": "presentation_pdf", "note": "fetched LIVE from static path"}
+{"url": "https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2025-12/Indirect_%26_capital_taxes_ID_Dec-2025.pdf", "title": "Indirect & capital taxes - IFS Autumn Budget 2025 analysis presentation (Isaac Delestre)", "date": "2025-11-27", "sha256": "8458c4c8ac229366bf7567246b4a00d562d6aab95a10a9704630084799cfb86c", "bytes": 676059, "local_path": "~/scorecard-harvest/uk_ifs/downloads/Budget2025_indirect_capital_taxes_ID.pdf", "doc_type": "presentation_pdf", "note": "fetched LIVE from static path; NOT yet staged (follow-up)"}
+{"url": "https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/26495404/embed", "title": "Flourish viz 26495404: Distributional impact of Budget 2025 reforms by household income decile in 2026-27 and in 2030-31", "date": "2025-11", "sha256": "a0efe5972bcc891c2db5b201d7adb65013ba281ad0faa065b1e592b0ed9a0ac1", "bytes": 848475, "local_path": "~/scorecard-harvest/uk_ifs/downloads/flourish_26495404_budget2025_decile.html", "doc_type": "chart_embed_html_with_data_json", "note": "public Flourish embed carrying full data JSON + settings (title, £ prefix, 'Per year', scope note)"}
+{"url": "https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2024-10/Child-poverty-trends-and-policy-options_1.pdf", "title": "Child poverty: trends and policy options (IFS Green Budget 2024, Chapter 6)", "date": "2024-10", "sha256": "00ae204c55a32cdb2bc3d86c749b898a622e35eaf1ba44e350ce95e2ec427ec9", "bytes": 698368, "local_path": "~/scorecard-harvest/uk_ifs/downloads/GB2024_ch6_child_poverty.pdf", "doc_type": "report_pdf", "note": "fetched LIVE from static path"}
+{"url": "https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2024-10/IFS-Green-Budget-2024-Chapter-6-Child-poverty-trends-and-policy-options-data.xlsx", "title": "GB2024 Chapter 6 figure data workbook (Figs 6.1-6.8)", "date": "2024-10", "sha256": "70a39f225151706a4d1dc5de93d4b70420978771c8eb07fdd10912fe80882590", "bytes": 34287, "local_path": "~/scorecard-harvest/uk_ifs/downloads/GB2024_ch6_child_poverty_data.xlsx", "doc_type": "data_xlsx", "note": "fetched LIVE from static path"}
+{"url": "https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/output_url_files/TAXBEN%2520Guide%2520-%2520UPDATE%2525202021.pdf", "title": "TAXBEN: The IFS tax and benefit microsimulation model (guide, 2021 update)", "date": "2021", "sha256": "b19a90c73cebf2a3e3befc1729f164b1b6bf025f3ced97edaf637eb4f3baec5e", "bytes": 101516, "local_path": "~/scorecard-harvest/uk_ifs/downloads/TAXBEN_Guide_2021.pdf", "doc_type": "methodology_pdf", "note": "live path 404s (both URL decodings); original bytes via Wayback 20240411152959id_; 4pp methodology guide"}
+{"url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20251224082200/https://ifs.org.uk/data-items/distributional-impact-budget-2025-reforms-household-income-decile-2026-27-and-2030-31", "title": "IFS data-item page: Budget 2025 decile chart (Wayback snapshot 2025-12-24)", "date": "2025-11", "sha256": "3f453183169cdc434d4c56a1a16f2e5521edff9c6bfed7d08900913e96225837", "bytes": 195547, "local_path": "~/scorecard-harvest/uk_ifs/downloads/wayback__data_item_budget2025_decile.html", "doc_type": "page_html_wayback"}
+{"url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260304035045/https://ifs.org.uk/events/autumn-budget-2025-ifs-analysis", "title": "IFS event page: Autumn Budget 2025 - IFS analysis (Wayback snapshot 2026-03-04)", "date": "2025-11-27", "sha256": "590439d2881e51921e6072678e2f22c2f6dbf4c29c6e031f6588a8b03ab96775", "bytes": 216967, "local_path": "~/scorecard-harvest/uk_ifs/downloads/wayback__event_autumn_budget_2025.html", "doc_type": "page_html_wayback"}
+{"url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20251016133912/https://ifs.org.uk/publications/green-budget-2025-full-report", "title": "IFS publication page: Green Budget 2025 full report (Wayback snapshot 2025-10-16)", "date": "2025-10", "sha256": "36ff91a5056c853a704c8035dfdae57723a6114985145d57d7458b11f8775e34", "bytes": 313298, "local_path": "~/scorecard-harvest/uk_ifs/downloads/wayback__gb2025_landing.html", "doc_type": "page_html_wayback"}
+{"url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20251126145445/https://ifs.org.uk/publications/child-poverty-trends-and-policy-options", "title": "IFS publication page: Child poverty trends and policy options (Wayback snapshot 2025-11-26)", "date": "2024-10", "sha256": "75f3a25ecd67d237cbaba40be802b6736f3a52a3b79efedd0eabd32ee5cd34b2", "bytes": 531245, "local_path": "~/scorecard-harvest/uk_ifs/downloads/wayback__child_poverty_report_page.html", "doc_type": "page_html_wayback"}
+{"url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20250827221416/https://ifs.org.uk/publications/taxben-ifs-tax-and-benefit-microsimulation-model", "title": "IFS publication page: TAXBEN model (Wayback snapshot 2025-08-27)", "date": "2021", "sha256": "39a9da21dec33ea574cb5895059cad28e456620df295f2771268eb509f7350b1", "bytes": 207067, "local_path": "~/scorecard-harvest/uk_ifs/downloads/wayback__taxben_pub_page.html", "doc_type": "page_html_wayback"}
+{"url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260216115321/https://ifs.org.uk/taxlab/taxlab-data-item/ifs-revenue-composition-spreadsheet", "title": "IFS Taxlab data-item page: revenue composition spreadsheet (Wayback snapshot 2026-02-16)", "date": "2026", "sha256": "cc4f31e36f2de73e7a5f5b3e252ee80bd0aa4fc303184a4a987aa1cc116bb010", "bytes": 33268, "local_path": "~/scorecard-harvest/uk_ifs/downloads/wayback__revenue_composition_item.html", "doc_type": "page_html_wayback", "note": "download route /media/9899/download is Cloudflare-403 live and NOT in Wayback - xlsx unretrieved (browser follow-up)"}
+{"url": "https://ifs.org.uk/data-items/distributional-impact-budget-2025-reforms-household-income-decile-2026-27-and-2030-31", "title": "LIVE fetch evidence: Cloudflare 403 challenge page for data-item route", "date": "2026-08-02", "sha256": "845501f8b826bb8483911d1bfd69d1ccffef66f2ef0ca665d016ec078760e783", "bytes": 6009, "local_path": "~/scorecard-harvest/uk_ifs/downloads/page__data_item_budget2025_decile.html", "doc_type": "blocked_403_challenge_html"}
+{"url": "https://ifs.org.uk/publications/green-budget-2025-full-report", "title": "LIVE fetch evidence: Cloudflare 403 challenge page for publication route", "date": "2026-08-02", "sha256": "a3c083f1f4fe9b46890b52191c8105d2a8ee378bb4885db53f0e5d72fbb12971", "bytes": 5783, "local_path": "~/scorecard-harvest/uk_ifs/downloads/page__green_budget_2025_full_report.html", "doc_type": "blocked_403_challenge_html"}
diff --git a/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_obr/NOTES.md b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_obr/NOTES.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..68f3219
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_obr/NOTES.md
@@ -0,0 +1,131 @@
+# uk_obr harvest notes (2026-08-02)
+
+Source: Office for Budget Responsibility (obr.uk). Publisher slug used in rows: `obr`.
+
+## Access route (no bypasses)
+obr.uk is Cloudflare-protected: curl and WebFetch get 403 with an honest UA, and
+the live site served an **interactive Turnstile checkbox** in the browser pane —
+NOT clicked, per the no-CAPTCHA rule. All bytes came from archives:
+- **Wayback Machine original bytes** (`/web/<ts>id_/` URLs, honest harvester UA) —
+  all 16 artifacts. Per-file snapshot URL in `manifest.jsonl` (`wayback_snapshot`).
+- UK Government Web Archive (webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk) was probed and
+  works for obr.uk *pages* but had not captured the target xlsx files.
+- Wayback SPN (save-page-now) rejected anonymous saves (520) — could not force
+  captures of the missing March 2026 files.
+- Discovery recipe: archived `/data/` and EFO pages -> `/download/<slug>/`
+  links; Wayback replay of a `/download/` slug follows the stored 302 to the
+  real file under `obr.uk/docs/...`; plus a domain-wide CDX query filtered to
+  `.xlsx` (2026 window) which surfaced newer vintages than the archived data
+  page linked (November 2025 PMD, uncertainty ratings, Spring 2026 HOFD).
+
+## Artifacts (16, all sha256'd in manifest.jsonl)
+Costings core: Policy measures database **November 2025** (latest vintage; its
+Tax Summary includes Autumn Budget 2025 — vintage confirmed from content) and
+**March 2025** vintage; Uncertainty ratings database November 2025; Policy
+risks database November 2025; EFO Oct 2024 policy tables (Autumn Budget 2024
+scorecard as published in the EFO).
+Forecast tables: EFO March 2026 receipts (latest); EFO Nov 2025 receipts /
+expenditure / aggregates; EFO Oct 2024 receipts; EFO Mar 2025 expenditure;
+EFO Mar 2026 chapter 3 charts+tables.
+Databases: Historical official forecasts database Spring 2026 + March 2025;
+March 2025 ready reckoner; Welfare trends report Oct 2024 charts+tables.
+
+## claims_staged.jsonl — 25,558 rows
+| block | rows | metric | notes |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| PMD Tax Measures | 12,773 | `revenue_change` | 2,579 measure×tax-head rows, 84 fiscal events, Budget 1970 -> Autumn Budget 2025 |
+| PMD Spending Measures | 11,531 | proposed `exchequer_impact` | 1,954 rows, June Budget 2010 -> Autumn Budget 2025 |
+| EFO Mar 2026 3.4 + 3.8 | 490 | proposed `revenue_level` | income tax/NICs detail + tax-by-tax cash receipts, 2024-25 outturn + forecast to 2030-31 |
+| EFO Nov 2025 4.9 + 4.11 | 441 | `benefit_cost` | welfare spending by program (UC elements, PIP, DLA, AA, carer's, child benefit, HB, JSA/ESA, state pension block) |
+| EFO Mar 2026 3.17 | 95 | `revenue_change` | latest re-estimated yield of personal tax measures (PA/HRT freezes, ART cut, NICs thresholds) — reform_hint per measure |
+| EFO Mar 2026 3.18 | 99 | proposed `taxpayer_count` (persons) | taxpayers with/without indexation, brought into tax / higher rate |
+| EFO Mar 2026 3.19 | 129 | proposed `policy_parameter_level` | actual (frozen) vs with-indexation counterfactual PA/HRT/NICs thresholds, £ |
+
+Conventions on every row: value normalized to GBP (proposed unit `gbp`;
+UnitConcept lacks it — extend deliberately), `value_raw` = verbatim cell,
+`normalization` documents ×1e6 (£m) or ×1e9 (£bn); `period` = FY start year,
+`time_basis` fiscal_year, `conditions.fy` = "1970-71"-style label;
+`conditions.basis` outturn|forecast from the workbook's own Outturn/Forecast
+marker row (`unstated` where the table has no marker — 3.17/3.19).
+
+### PMD staging decisions (the load-bearing ones)
+- **Units/sign, verbatim from the Notes sheet**: "All the figures in this
+  database are in £ million… We use the Treasury scorecard convention that a
+  positive sign implies a gain to the Exchequer, and so reduces borrowing."
+  Tax rows: that convention coincides with revenue_change semantics (tax rise
+  = +). Spending rows: a positive value = *reduced* borrowing (e.g. the
+  June-2010 CPI-indexation switch and DLA gateway show +) — so it is NOT a
+  spending change; staged untransformed as proposed `exchequer_impact` with
+  `conditions.sign_convention=positive_gain_to_exchequer` and
+  `conditions.impact_channel=spending_measure`.
+- **Extension cells excluded**: OBR extends costings beyond the original
+  scorecard using nominal GDP growth and shades those cells; the shading is
+  machine-readable (solid fill FFE1E9EE). Staged only original-scorecard
+  cells (24,304); skipped 48,902 extended cells (`costing_phase=
+  original_scorecard` on every staged row). Extended values remain available
+  in the artifact if ever wanted.
+- Pre-June-2010 events are Treasury scorecard numbers (2-year horizons,
+  £5m rounding, £50m publication threshold); post-2010 are OBR-scrutinised
+  5-year costings (£1m rounding since Budget 2018). source_model =
+  `hmt_scorecard_obr_database` for all; the fiscal_event condition dates each row.
+- **March 2025 PMD vintage downloaded but not staged**: the database carries
+  original costings unchanged across vintages (per its own notes), so
+  re-staging would duplicate ~everything minus the two 2025 events; kept for
+  vintage diffing at ingest.
+- Measures hitting both receipts and spending appear on both sheets (e.g.
+  Warm Homes Plan: Environmental levies on tax side, PSGI in CDEL on spending
+  side) — both staged, distinguished by tax_head/spending_head conditions.
+
+### Spot-checks passed
+- AB2024 "Employer National Insurance contributions: Increase rate by 1.2 ppts
+  to 15%…" = +£24.17bn (2027-28), non-dom abolition +£5.73bn — match the
+  published scorecard magnitudes.
+- 4.11 incapacity spending 2024-25 outturn £29.4bn; 3.4 income tax (gross)
+  2024-25 outturn £305.9bn — right scales.
+- All 25,558 rows JSON-clean, conditions strictly str->str, 0 failures.
+
+## uncertainty_ratings.jsonl — 1,179 rows (sidecar, not claims)
+Final rating + data/behavioural/modelling sub-ratings per measure per event,
+Autumn Statement 2014 -> Autumn Budget 2025 (23 events). Join to PMD rows at
+ingest on (fiscal_event exact, measure name fuzzy) to populate
+`conditions.costing_certainty`. Names differ slightly between the two
+workbooks — do the fuzzy join deliberately, not automatically.
+
+## PolicyEngine-UK-runnable costings (best validation surface)
+Directly parametric in policyengine_uk:
+- **PA + HRT freezes** — 3.17 gives the OBR yield path (£24.3bn 2024-25 ->
+  £49.1bn 2029-30) AND 3.19 gives the exact counterfactual thresholds to
+  encode the uprated baseline. Cleanest possible reform-validation pair.
+- Employer NICs rate 13.8->15% + Secondary Threshold £9,100->£5,000 (AB2024).
+- Additional rate threshold £150k->£125,140; employee NICs main-rate cuts
+  (AS2023 12->10%, SB2024 10->8%); NICs primary threshold July-2022 rise.
+- HICBC threshold changes; two-child-limit removal (AB2025, spending side);
+  UC taper 63%->55% + work allowances (AB2021); state pension triple-lock
+  upratings; VAT on private school fees (AB2024).
+- 3.18 taxpayer counts (brought into tax / higher rate by freezes) are
+  PE-computable headcounts.
+Level validation: 4.9/4.11 welfare benefit_cost by program × year vs PE UK
+program totals; 3.4/3.8 receipts levels vs PE income tax/NICs aggregates.
+
+## Blockers / follow-up fetch queue (one click each in a real browser)
+- EFO **March 2026** detailed tables: **policy** (Spring 2026 event costings),
+  **expenditure** (latest welfare tables), aggregates — never archived;
+  live URLs (pattern confirmed from siblings):
+  `https://obr.uk/docs/d055fbf02d5b3g6jq8l2/efo-march-2026-detailed-forecast-tables-{policy,expenditure,aggregates}.xlsx`
+  (also available via `https://obr.uk/download/march-2026-economic-and-fiscal-outlook-detailed-forecast-tables-zip-file/`).
+- EFO Nov 2025 policy tables (Autumn Budget 2025 scorecard as published):
+  not found in archives under any tried name.
+- Policy measures database **post-AB2025 refresh**: as of the June-2026
+  archived data page the linked PMD was still the March-2025 slug; the Nov
+  2025 file is the newest archived. Check live site for a Spring-2026 update.
+- Welfare trends report Oct 2024: artifact retained, tables not yet staged
+  (overlaps 4.9-style content at an older vintage) — parse at ingest if wanted.
+- Ready reckoner staged as artifact only: it is determinant-sensitivity
+  (earnings/employment scenarios), not policy levers.
+
+## Parse confidence
+High for everything staged: units read from each table's own unit row
+("£ billion"/"£ million"/"Million"/"£"), basis from each table's own marker
+row, extension flags from the workbook's own shading key. No inferred
+mechanics. Re-runnable scripts: stage_pmd.py, stage_efo_tables.py,
+stage_receipts_measures.py, stage_uncertainty.py.
diff --git a/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_obr/claims_staged.jsonl.gz b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_obr/claims_staged.jsonl.gz
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..c75fbe5
Binary files /dev/null and b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_obr/claims_staged.jsonl.gz differ
diff --git a/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_obr/manifest.jsonl b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_obr/manifest.jsonl
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..b1dddf8
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_obr/manifest.jsonl
@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+{"url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "title": "Policy measures database (November 2025, to Autumn Budget 2025)", "date": "2025-11", "sha256": "76fb24ac780364949e5537563a70f8fbbe30cad6c652195704ea5d72b32ea619", "local_path": "downloads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "doc_type": "costings_database", "access": "wayback_machine_original_bytes", "wayback_snapshot": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260102175529id_/https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "bytes": 2032302}
+{"url": "https://obr.uk/docs/Policy_measures_database_March_2025.xlsx", "title": "Policy measures database (March 2025 vintage)", "date": "2025-03", "sha256": "57874784264dd98f1df222a2983fa11fba88d461ef6bbf040f189673756a40e6", "local_path": "downloads/Policy_measures_database_March_2025.xlsx", "doc_type": "costings_database", "access": "wayback_machine_original_bytes", "wayback_snapshot": "https://web.archive.org/web/20251208224944id_/https://obr.uk/docs/Policy_measures_database_March_2025.xlsx", "bytes": 1926258}
+{"url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Uncertainty_ratings_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "title": "Policy costings uncertainty ratings database (November 2025)", "date": "2025-11", "sha256": "06610ebceb159d8fd29bda91261699783b5ca3ec8cb8a4a9d38a9a5913596947", "local_path": "downloads/Uncertainty_ratings_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "doc_type": "costings_uncertainty_database", "access": "wayback_machine_original_bytes", "wayback_snapshot": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260209105233id_/https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Uncertainty_ratings_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "bytes": 322126}
+{"url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_risks_database_November_2025.xlsx", "title": "Policy risks database (November 2025)", "date": "2025-11", "sha256": "e78a20542bb7e5fbf2d21bcbcc805b0bcaa54650711ba5893e71c206bb8db825", "local_path": "downloads/Policy_risks_database_November_2025.xlsx", "doc_type": "policy_risks_database", "access": "wayback_machine_original_bytes", "wayback_snapshot": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260129111151id_/https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_risks_database_November_2025.xlsx", "bytes": 159023}
+{"url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_Detailed_forecast_tables_October_2024.xlsx", "title": "EFO October 2024 detailed forecast tables: policy (Autumn Budget 2024 costings)", "date": "2024-10", "sha256": "473a17635357a51a5da2260c7ff918ff68a609b589c2620f05a84304255cd182", "local_path": "downloads/Policy_Detailed_forecast_tables_October_2024.xlsx", "doc_type": "efo_policy_tables", "access": "wayback_machine_original_bytes", "wayback_snapshot": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260608022059id_/https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_Detailed_forecast_tables_October_2024.xlsx", "bytes": 115740}
+{"url": "https://obr.uk/docs/d055fbf02d5b3g6jq8l2/efo-march-2026-detailed-forecast-tables-receipts.xlsx", "title": "EFO March 2026 detailed forecast tables: receipts", "date": "2026-03", "sha256": "f65b6cb7f96931d4abd85940794eb60f6f65afca8bbf16c74a4548bf92766a28", "local_path": "downloads/efo-march-2026-detailed-forecast-tables-receipts.xlsx", "doc_type": "efo_receipts_tables", "access": "wayback_machine_original_bytes", "wayback_snapshot": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260316163140id_/https://obr.uk/docs/d055fbf02d5b3g6jq8l2/efo-march-2026-detailed-forecast-tables-receipts.xlsx", "bytes": 187899}
+{"url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Receipts_Detailed_forecast_tables_November_2025.xlsx", "title": "EFO November 2025 detailed forecast tables: receipts", "date": "2025-11", "sha256": "dee9347861cf38e422a8827e6999acac477f07bbb9602a3850915b1d4f212a1f", "local_path": "downloads/Receipts_Detailed_forecast_tables_November_2025.xlsx", "doc_type": "efo_receipts_tables", "access": "wayback_machine_original_bytes", "wayback_snapshot": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260107133932id_/https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Receipts_Detailed_forecast_tables_November_2025.xlsx", "bytes": 1480077}
+{"url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Receipts_Detailed_forecast_tables_October_2024.xlsx", "title": "EFO October 2024 detailed forecast tables: receipts", "date": "2024-10", "sha256": "16d69c0981f45e5b7fe3fa35d08bfe09e6170440231d546f374a9f4d48191991", "local_path": "downloads/Receipts_Detailed_forecast_tables_October_2024.xlsx", "doc_type": "efo_receipts_tables", "access": "wayback_machine_original_bytes", "wayback_snapshot": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260122155048id_/https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Receipts_Detailed_forecast_tables_October_2024.xlsx", "bytes": 315349}
+{"url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Expenditure_Detailed_forecast_tables_November_2025.xlsx", "title": "EFO November 2025 detailed forecast tables: expenditure (incl. welfare 4.9/4.11)", "date": "2025-11", "sha256": "ad05ec74e16c6874c0b559e494c55a5e4327676a02e5a9276c23605ec37f8115", "local_path": "downloads/Expenditure_Detailed_forecast_tables_November_2025.xlsx", "doc_type": "efo_expenditure_tables", "access": "wayback_machine_original_bytes", "wayback_snapshot": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260316163307id_/https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Expenditure_Detailed_forecast_tables_November_2025.xlsx", "bytes": 2120899}
+{"url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Expenditure_Detailed_forecast_tables_March_2025.xlsx", "title": "EFO March 2025 detailed forecast tables: expenditure", "date": "2025-03", "sha256": "b5ae257aca0cf9cc9e581509080e2c0220ec1f8f591f1cc24527fcd21bcadc11", "local_path": "downloads/Expenditure_Detailed_forecast_tables_March_2025.xlsx", "doc_type": "efo_expenditure_tables", "access": "wayback_machine_original_bytes", "wayback_snapshot": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260113025043id_/https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Expenditure_Detailed_forecast_tables_March_2025.xlsx", "bytes": 247780}
+{"url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Aggregates_Detailed_forecast_tables_November_2025.xlsx", "title": "EFO November 2025 detailed forecast tables: aggregates", "date": "2025-11", "sha256": "a165cd1cc714b3bb1d5435d637556aeee4c22002cf2196411135de20f738a7b8", "local_path": "downloads/Aggregates_Detailed_forecast_tables_November_2025.xlsx", "doc_type": "efo_aggregates_tables", "access": "wayback_machine_original_bytes", "wayback_snapshot": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260217103318id_/https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Aggregates_Detailed_forecast_tables_November_2025.xlsx", "bytes": 221485}
+{"url": "https://obr.uk/docs/d055fbf02d5b3g6jq8l2/efo-march-2026-charts-and-tables-chapter-3.xlsx", "title": "EFO March 2026 chapter 3 (fiscal outlook) charts and tables", "date": "2026-03", "sha256": "c3f923ae8f68e523f7addc0916f5f2767f3e422cc67943799cd75588dc7fc7b6", "local_path": "downloads/efo-march-2026-charts-and-tables-chapter-3.xlsx", "doc_type": "efo_charts_tables", "access": "wayback_machine_original_bytes", "wayback_snapshot": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260316163315id_/https://obr.uk/docs/d055fbf02d5b3g6jq8l2/efo-march-2026-charts-and-tables-chapter-3.xlsx", "bytes": 241933}
+{"url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Historical_official_forecasts_database_Spring_2026.xlsx", "title": "Historical official forecasts database (Spring 2026)", "date": "2026-03", "sha256": "e00b17cb7ec8dfddc4bfd4d212c1e93362147fff81d74a10480e599b26e634db", "local_path": "downloads/Historical_official_forecasts_database_Spring_2026.xlsx", "doc_type": "forecasts_database", "access": "wayback_machine_original_bytes", "wayback_snapshot": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260328182841id_/https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Historical_official_forecasts_database_Spring_2026.xlsx", "bytes": 2298283}
+{"url": "https://obr.uk/docs/Historical_official_forecasts_database_March_2025.xlsx", "title": "Historical official forecasts database (March 2025)", "date": "2025-03", "sha256": "d69fa5112266c71fff0c74bffe416b7c7c0f663b44e0b87e7a82899d09ba39d5", "local_path": "downloads/Historical_official_forecasts_database_March_2025.xlsx", "doc_type": "forecasts_database", "access": "wayback_machine_original_bytes", "wayback_snapshot": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250404155002id_/https://obr.uk/docs/Historical_official_forecasts_database_March_2025.xlsx", "bytes": 2350760}
+{"url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/March_2025_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_ready_reckoner.xlsx", "title": "EFO March 2025 ready reckoner (economic determinant sensitivities)", "date": "2025-03", "sha256": "a78726f6456c1084827899aca9576e53b730de392c3f5b2990eaf8219439de2c", "local_path": "downloads/March_2025_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_ready_reckoner.xlsx", "doc_type": "ready_reckoner", "access": "wayback_machine_original_bytes", "wayback_snapshot": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250911101221id_/https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/March_2025_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_ready_reckoner.xlsx", "bytes": 258727}
+{"url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Welfare-trends-report-October-2024-charts-and-tables.xlsx", "title": "Welfare trends report October 2024 - charts and tables", "date": "2024-10", "sha256": "9ae1a378e51fc311eadd4b487246f99b6ef7631987a9d1e5cf73a0bfe454ed24", "local_path": "downloads/Welfare-trends-report-October-2024-charts-and-tables.xlsx", "doc_type": "welfare_trends_data", "access": "wayback_machine_original_bytes", "wayback_snapshot": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241108163941id_/https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Welfare-trends-report-October-2024-charts-and-tables.xlsx", "bytes": 1083754}
diff --git a/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_resolution_foundation/NOTES.md b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_resolution_foundation/NOTES.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..cccec65
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_resolution_foundation/NOTES.md
@@ -0,0 +1,178 @@
+# Resolution Foundation harvest — 2026-08-02
+
+Source slug: `resolution_foundation` (research institute; source_model
+"resolution_foundation", never administrative fact). Underlying engine for
+their distributional/projection work: **the IPPR Tax Benefit Model** run on
+DWP FRS/HBAI microdata (every distributional figure sources "RF projections
+including use of the IPPR Tax Benefit Model"). RF is therefore a *third*
+UK microsimulation lineage alongside IFS (TAXBEN) and government (Policy
+Simulation Model / IGOTM) — good triangulation value.
+
+## Coverage
+15 artifacts manifested (all sha256'd, honest UA, robots.txt fully
+permissive `Allow: /`, ~3-4s politeness delay, zero bypasses needed).
+71 staged claims from 5 publications:
+
+| pub | date | staged |
+|---|---|---|
+| Living Standards Outlook 2026 | 2026-02-10 | 27 |
+| The Living Standards Outlook 2025 | 2025-06-26 | 14 |
+| Stairway to headroom (Autumn Budget 2025 response) | 2025-11-27 | 12 |
+| Catching up? (April 2026 uprating spotlight) | 2025-10-22 | 8 |
+| Happy new tax year 2026 | 2026-04-02 | 10 |
+
+Downloaded but not claim-mined (context/coverage): Black holes and
+consolidations (pre-Budget briefing), Low Pay Britain 2025 (minimum wage
+flagship), State of the nations (devolved social security), Delivering
+dignity (Scotland ADP), Measuring household income (RHDI-vs-HBAI
+methodology), New Year Outlook 2026, Credit where credit's due (mortgage
+rules — NOT a UC report despite the title), Bye bye baby (birth rates),
+Much ado about PuFins (public financial institutions), It's personal
+(taxation) (PDF extracts 0 text lines via pdftotext -layout — needs OCR or
+-raw retry; valid Word-produced PDF).
+
+## Chart-data downloads: none (site practice changed)
+The task expected chart-data downloads. Current RF report pages ship **PDF
+only** — no per-report chart-data xlsx/zip anywhere on the 15 pages
+fetched (checked hrefs for xlsx/zip/csv/"chart data"; probed obvious
+upload-path names → 404). The site-wide "Data" nav item points to just two
+standing dashboards (housing-indicators; RTI-based employment estimates).
+All staged values were transcribed verbatim from PDF text (pdftotext
+-layout), mostly from prose + printed chart labels, so axis-only chart
+series (e.g. full vigintile growth curves in LSO Figure 6, full vigintile
+gain/loss bars in HNTY Figure 1 / Stairway Figure 19) could NOT be
+extracted — only the labelled points and prose-stated group aggregates.
+
+## Conventions used in claims_staged.jsonl
+- Fiscal years Apr–Mar: `period` = start year (2026-27 → 2026),
+  `time_basis` fiscal_year, `conditions.fy` verbatim.
+- GBP values: `proposed_unit: "gbp"` (UnitConcept lacks it). value_kind
+  "usd" is the closed-vocab currency kind — flagged here, not renamed.
+- Income concept: RF poverty and income-growth work is **equivalised
+  household disposable income, after housing costs (AHC)** — stamped on
+  every distribution row (`income_concept`, `equivalisation`). LSO 2026
+  Figure 15 title says "relative poverty after housing costs" explicitly;
+  LSO 2025 Figure 15 note defines relative poverty as below 60% of
+  median in the given year.
+- Geography verbatim: UK for LSO/HNTY headline rows; **GB** for the
+  two-child-limit impact-assessment counts (DWP IA covers GB); Scotland
+  rows labelled Scotland.
+- `attribution` field (8 rows): values RF **cites from government** (HMT
+  Budget 2025 Table 4.1 costings; DWP final-stage impact assessment
+  510k families/£4,560; government −450k child-poverty estimate; UC
+  rebalancing net cost £330m/−£210m; EV charge £1.9bn) — these are NOT
+  RF-model outputs; ingest should either reroute to the government source
+  or keep with the attribution tag. Everything without `attribution` is
+  RF's own modelling.
+- `reform_hint` (26 rows): plain-language mapping to a PE-runnable reform
+  (two-child limit repeal Apr 2026; UC standard allowance CPI+2.3%
+  Apr 2026 (+£6/wk, phased to +4.8% vs CPI-only by 2029-30); UC health
+  element halved+frozen for new claims (£50/wk); IT/NICs threshold freeze
+  extension to Apr 2030; mansion tax; EV per-mile charge).
+
+## Methodology (verbatim extracts, LSO 2026 Annex 1, pp.34-37) — for the assumptions registry
+- Base data: "nowcasting and forecasting the latest household income data
+  (DWP's Family Resources Survey and Households Below Average Income
+  statistics, 2023-24) to the years from 2024-25 through to 2029-30."
+- Reweighting: "We reweight the population to match ONS forecasts for
+  demographic change by age and gender" ("reweight2" in Stata; ONS
+  2022-based projections, **migration category variant**); labour force
+  participation from "the OBR's March 2025 outlook".
+- Earnings: "all employee and self-employed earnings are uprated equally
+  in each year. Overall wage growth is constrained to match ONS figures
+  for the outturn period and OBR figures for the projection period";
+  wage floor modelled each year with "some 'spillover effect' for those
+  just above the wage floor"; NLW extension to 21-22 in 2024-25 and
+  "(provisionally) to those aged 18-20 by 2029-30"; "the wage floor
+  beyond 2025-26 rises in line with average earnings."
+- Take-up: "We model incomplete take-up of the main means-tested
+  benefits. For example, we assume **80 per cent take-up of Universal
+  Credit**... we assume a rise in **Pension Credit take-up from 65 per
+  cent to 70 per cent** following Winter Fuel Payment reform."
+- UC rollout: "We assume that full roll-out of Universal Credit is
+  completed in 2026-27."
+- Two-child limit: "applied to children born from April 2017, and so
+  affects a growing proportion of the caseload each year. It is removed
+  from April 2026 in line with Government policy."
+- Deflator: "we create a specific deflator for 'after housing costs'
+  income, in line with DWP definitions" (removes housing costs from CPI);
+  OBR November 2025 CPI forecast is the starting point.
+- Rents: ONS Price Index of Private Rents for nowcast; "Beyond September
+  2025, private rents are assumed to rise in line with average earnings,
+  with a 12-month lag."
+- **Changes-not-levels discipline**: "we apply income growth rates (and
+  absolute changes in poverty and inequality metrics) from our modelling
+  to the 2023-24 outturn data, rather than directly using the projected
+  levels." → RF projected *levels* inherit any error in HBAI 2023-24;
+  treat RF rows as changes-anchored-to-outturn when comparing.
+- Not modelled: benefit sanctions; mixed-age-couple Pension Credit
+  transitional protection ("We instead use the new eligibility rules for
+  everyone, in every year"); detailed migration; tenure change; Council
+  Tax Support variation by LA.
+- PIP: "We model receipt of Personal Independence Payment based on future
+  caseload projections."
+- Deductions: benefit deductions modelled "consistent with the 2025 Fair
+  Repayment Rate reform" (15% cap on UC deductions, down from 25%).
+
+Stairway to headroom Box 2 (distributional-analysis scope, pp.37-39):
+models "just over half (52 per cent) of the total tax changes announced
+since Autumn Budget 2024 and the majority (85 per cent) of the total
+welfare spending changes; we model £20 billion of the total £34 billion";
+RDEL analysis covers "70 per cent" (£47bn of £67bn); "our distribution
+analysis of changes to tax and benefits and our distributional analysis of
+changes to public spending cannot sensibly be combined"; Treasury's
+Budget-2025 distributional analysis models 2028-29 while RF models
+2029-30 — direct RF-vs-HMT comparisons must adjust for this.
+
+## Diagnosis seeds / errata
+1. **Source typo in Catching up? (p.3)**: "cost the Government £800m in
+   2026-27, rising to **£1.85 million** in 2029-30" — plainly £1.85bn.
+   Staged 2026-27 only, typo flagged in the row note.
+2. **Cross-publication cost drift**: same UC over-indexation measure
+   costed £800m (Catching up?, Oct 2025) vs £810m (HNTY, Apr 2026) for
+   2026-27; LSO 2026 reports the *net* rebalancing package (uplift +
+   health-element cut) at £330m net cost 2026-27 → −£210m saving 2029-30.
+   Three different scopes — do not treat as contradictions.
+3. **Same-group different-vintage gains**: poorest-fifth average gain from
+   two-child-limit removal is **£290** (HNTY, 2026-27 impact) vs **£360**
+   (Stairway, 2029-30 impact in 2025-26 prices) — year and price base
+   differ, both staged with conditions.
+4. RF flags (LSO 2025, p.31) that HBAI outturns are "expected to be
+   revised in March 2026 as part of a welcome stats overhaul using
+   administrative data", with "a likely consequence... an (even) lower
+   pensioner poverty rate" — vintage risk on any pre-2026 RF level.
+
+## UK triangulation (overlap with IFS / OBR / DWP on the same measures)
+- **Child poverty projections**: RF LSO 2026 (33% → 30% relative AHC,
+  −420k children in 2026-27) vs **DWP's own February 2026 projections**
+  ("also project a fall in child poverty from 33 per cent in 2025-26 to
+  30 per cent in 2026-27" — RF footnote 21) vs IFS's living-standards
+  projections. Three-way UK poverty triangle on identical
+  concept/period.
+- **Two-child limit repeal**: RF (£2.4bn 2026-27 → £3.1bn 2029-30, HMT
+  scorecard; 510k families; £4,560 avg gain; govt −450k children) — IFS
+  and JRF publish rival costings/poverty impacts of the same reform;
+  PE-runnable as a parametric UK reform.
+- **Budget 2025 decile impacts**: RF Stairway (2029-30, AHC deciles) vs
+  **HM Treasury's own distributional analysis** (2028-29) vs IFS
+  post-Budget analysis — same event, three models, documented scope
+  difference (52% of tax measures modelled).
+- **April 2026 uprating rates** (3.8% CPI-linked / 4.8% State Pension /
+  6.2% UC / 6.8% under-25 UC / 1.5% existing UC-health / 0% LHA): pure
+  parameter checks against policyengine-uk uprating parameters; also
+  OBR EFO Nov 2025 carries the same UC Act 2025 path.
+- **RHDI vs HBAI**: Measuring-household-income spotlight (2026-07-31)
+  reconciles ONS RHDI with DWP HBAI — useful when Scorecard compares
+  OBR (RHDI-based) with RF/IFS (HBAI-based) income-growth rows.
+
+## Blockers / follow-ups
+- No chart-data files exist to fetch (see above) — full decile/vigintile
+  series would need RF correspondence or figure digitisation.
+- It's personal (taxation) PDF yields no text via pdftotext; retry with
+  `-raw`/OCR next pass.
+- Annex 1 of LSO 2025 has per-nation child poverty projections (table not
+  parsed this pass — PDF table extraction needed).
+- Low Pay Britain 2025 (minimum wage bite/coverage) downloaded but
+  unmined; State of the nations Scotland section cites Scottish
+  Government cumulative impact assessment (SCP −10pp/−100k children in
+  2026-27) — government-model numbers, left unstaged deliberately.
diff --git a/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_resolution_foundation/claims_staged.jsonl.gz b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_resolution_foundation/claims_staged.jsonl.gz
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..530dc19
Binary files /dev/null and b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_resolution_foundation/claims_staged.jsonl.gz differ
diff --git a/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_resolution_foundation/manifest.jsonl b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_resolution_foundation/manifest.jsonl
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..bfe6d14
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_resolution_foundation/manifest.jsonl
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+{"url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2026/02/LSO-2026.pdf", "title": "Living Standards Outlook 2026", "date": "2026-02-10", "sha256": "4e6db7089e6d8d53fd318708a1e98733016661546dca9c6941718b7cb0e16c5d", "local_path": "downloads/LSO-2026.pdf", "doc_type": "report", "landing_page": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/living-standards-outlook-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-08-02", "publisher": "Resolution Foundation"}
+{"url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/06/LivingStandardsOutlook2025.pdf", "title": "The Living Standards Outlook 2025", "date": "2025-06-26", "sha256": "3742252d929e1c2fe5a78bcf13ab996f95dfc7d5621c588447305441663e013f", "local_path": "downloads/LivingStandardsOutlook2025.pdf", "doc_type": "report", "landing_page": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/the-living-standards-outlook-2025/", "retrieved": "2026-08-02", "publisher": "Resolution Foundation"}
+{"url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "date": "2025-11-27", "sha256": "341d885311647e48e0d76bf6df5d8513ea479cd37185b19a9ecafd9db9e0d812", "local_path": "downloads/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "doc_type": "briefing", "landing_page": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/stairway-to-headroom/", "retrieved": "2026-08-02", "publisher": "Resolution Foundation"}
+{"url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Black-holes-and-consolidations.pdf", "title": "Black holes and consolidations", "date": "2025-11-04", "sha256": "187997881f7fc49f872ee17b7667e50a88fa224b402d49c75f4ee3c118fff184", "local_path": "downloads/Black-holes-and-consolidations.pdf", "doc_type": "briefing", "landing_page": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/black-holes-and-consolidations/", "retrieved": "2026-08-02", "publisher": "Resolution Foundation"}
+{"url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/10/Benefit-uprating-spotlight-sept-2025-final.pdf", "title": "Catching up? Benefit uprating policy for April 2026", "date": "2025-10-22", "sha256": "47922aa9a9ca6eeb8d87b5583e0a9fec6ac4e8340c1dff77e6e5aaf9c26a4c2e", "local_path": "downloads/Catching-up-benefit-uprating.pdf", "doc_type": "spotlight", "landing_page": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/catching-up/", "retrieved": "2026-08-02", "publisher": "Resolution Foundation"}
+{"url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2026/03/Credit-where-credits-due-2.pdf", "title": "Credit where credit's due? Unpacking the distributional impact of Britain's mortgage lending rules", "date": "2026-03-26", "sha256": "2d10296d8028b4180fa4b87ccea19e3956a926e16fd444bba609441c7c3d23f2", "local_path": "downloads/Credit-where-credits-due.pdf", "doc_type": "briefing", "landing_page": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/credit-where-credits-due/", "retrieved": "2026-08-02", "publisher": "Resolution Foundation"}
+{"url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2026/03/Bye-bye-baby.pdf", "title": "Bye bye baby: Assessing Britain's falling birth rate since the early 2010s", "date": "2026-04-01", "sha256": "86486f8cedc73c4b21ac227d4cea5ea63c1ab25aeb6ef013d31a388bdd447fee", "local_path": "downloads/Bye-bye-baby.pdf", "doc_type": "briefing", "landing_page": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/bye-bye-baby/", "retrieved": "2026-08-02", "publisher": "Resolution Foundation"}
+{"url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/10/Personal-tax-levels-spotlight.pdf", "title": "It's personal (taxation)", "date": "2025-10-27", "sha256": "40d67bf0466c9115045ee96d4ddcbfc21722928fa02ce1a9befe97262de86e01", "local_path": "downloads/Its-personal-taxation.pdf", "doc_type": "spotlight", "landing_page": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/its-personal-taxation/", "retrieved": "2026-08-02", "publisher": "Resolution Foundation"}
+{"url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2026/04/HNTY-2026.pdf", "title": "Happy new tax year 2026: Putting tax and social security changes in the context of rising energy bills", "date": "2026-04-02", "sha256": "41246352692f75ddf3d0bc4ddfb80b8ec986978f43ed12ed2906d25f1f670080", "local_path": "downloads/Happy-new-tax-year-2026.pdf", "doc_type": "spotlight", "landing_page": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/happy-new-tax-year-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-08-02", "publisher": "Resolution Foundation"}
+{"url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/07/Low-Pay-Britain-2025.pdf", "title": "Low Pay Britain 2025", "date": "2025-07-03", "sha256": "225c9037b9c9d1e5d64b6411a2e465cfcfb95e75b2fbe315d86cea6e3ea5c2eb", "local_path": "downloads/Low-Pay-Britain-2025.pdf", "doc_type": "report", "landing_page": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/low-pay-britain-2025/", "retrieved": "2026-08-02", "publisher": "Resolution Foundation"}
+{"url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/12/Delivering-dignity-2.pdf", "title": "Delivering dignity? Early lessons from the introduction of Adult Disability Payment in Scotland", "date": "2025-12-08", "sha256": "68c78d17f585b302e9016911ba9e6de988daa5b9e70d8919e5e76b618b52f30b", "local_path": "downloads/Delivering-dignity.pdf", "doc_type": "spotlight", "landing_page": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/delivering-dignity/", "retrieved": "2026-08-02", "publisher": "Resolution Foundation"}
+{"url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2026/07/Much-ado-about-puffins.pdf", "title": "Much ado about PuFins: How the UK's public financial institutions can unlock billions for investment", "date": "2026-07-20", "sha256": "cd9cebbef6288e2410e20dd46bd085c7399a8b46807fe1e2bf460d36857b413d", "local_path": "downloads/Much-ado-about-PuFins.pdf", "doc_type": "briefing", "landing_page": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/much-ado-about-pufins/", "retrieved": "2026-08-02", "publisher": "Resolution Foundation"}
+{"url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2026/07/Measuring-household-income.pdf", "title": "Measuring household income: Explaining the differences between RHDI and HBAI", "date": "2026-07-31", "sha256": "01b6a8265b19e01529695fdefadf1d641a66b39114bda370e971f2d2753616af", "local_path": "downloads/Measuring-household-income.pdf", "doc_type": "spotlight", "landing_page": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/measuring-household-income/", "retrieved": "2026-08-02", "publisher": "Resolution Foundation"}
+{"url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2026/05/State-of-the-nations-final.pdf", "title": "The state of the nations: Devolution and social security", "date": "2026-05-21", "sha256": "ed9437e76bc40db346c65a72ce05aff6534fbf43f65289c97cd3dc2a356e70ba", "local_path": "downloads/State-of-the-nations.pdf", "doc_type": "report", "landing_page": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/the-state-of-the-nations/", "retrieved": "2026-08-02", "publisher": "Resolution Foundation"}
+{"url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2026/01/NYO2026.pdf", "title": "New Year Outlook 2026", "date": "2026-01-05", "sha256": "0d56ea5890d54dbbae5cd52a0b163afdf30e921b6aab7bf5eea168d80538d7f0", "local_path": "downloads/New-Year-Outlook-2026.pdf", "doc_type": "briefing", "landing_page": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/new-year-outlook-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-08-02", "publisher": "Resolution Foundation"}
diff --git a/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_ukmod_jrf/NOTES.md b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_ukmod_jrf/NOTES.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..4c1d0e7
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_ukmod_jrf/NOTES.md
@@ -0,0 +1,139 @@
+# uk_ukmod_jrf — coverage, quirks, parse confidence (2026-08-02)
+
+Two targets in one lane: **UKMOD** (ISER/Essex tax-benefit microsimulation, CeMPA
+working papers) and **JRF** (Joseph Rowntree Foundation). 1,782 staged claims
+(ukmod 1,392 / jrf 390), 5 manifested artifacts, zero bot-mitigation bypasses.
+
+## Robots compliance
+- iser.essex.ac.uk: `User-agent: *` allow-all. ukmod.iser.essex.ac.uk: no robots.txt.
+- jrf.org.uk: `Crawl-delay: 20` honored — jrf.org.uk requests spaced >20s (3 total:
+  robots, landing page, MIS PDF). The data workbook is served from
+  jrf-jrht-brand.frontify.com (their brand-asset CDN; the landing page's own
+  download link). Honest UA with contact email on every request.
+- microsimulation.ac.uk: blocks only named commercial crawlers; not needed beyond search.
+
+## UKMOD side (source "ukmod")
+
+### CeMPA WP 8/26 — UKMOD Country Report 2023-2030 (van de Ven & Popova, Apr 2026)
+UKMOD B2026.01, FRS 2023/24 input (HBAI-adjusted weights/incomes), forecasts from 2025.
+Staged the full Section-4 validation block — **another microsimulation's published
+self-validation, simulated and official columns side by side**:
+- **Table 4.5** caseloads (thousands): 38 rows × (8 UKMOD policy years 2023-2030 +
+  8 official-estimate years). Benefits → metric `caseload`; income tax/NIC payers →
+  proposed `taxpayer_count`. Caseload unit per table note: families except
+  (c) children, (h) households, (i) individuals; NIC/tax rows are people.
+- **Table 4.6** expenditure/revenue (£m): 38 rows. Benefits → `benefit_cost`
+  (proposed_unit gbp); taxes/NIC → proposed `tax_revenue`.
+- **Table 4.7** income distribution (BHC, modified-OECD, individual unit): Gini,
+  mean/median £/month, quintile medians and shares × {UKMOD 2023-2030, Input Data
+  2023, HBAI 2023}.
+- **Table 4.8** poverty rates below 50/60/70% median **BHC** (NB: UKMOD's validation
+  poverty is BHC; JRF headline is AHC — never cross-compare without the flag) for
+  all/children/over-SPA/men/women × same 10 series.
+- `conditions.series` = `ukmod_simulated` | `official_estimate` | `input_data` | `hbai`.
+  Official-estimate cells are SECOND-HAND transcriptions of DWP/HMRC/SSS/OBR/SFC
+  numbers as cited by UKMOD (full citation string on each row +
+  `official_sources_note`); first-hand twins arrive via the dwp/hmrc/obr lanes —
+  dedup at ingest, and the (UKMOD-cited vs first-hand) delta is itself diagnosis
+  material.
+- Parse method: anchor on UKMOD variable names (bch_s, tin12_s, …) in the
+  pdftotext -layout text; scoped label anchors for income-tax band sub-rows;
+  10 hard-coded spot-check cells asserted on every run (`stage_claims.py`).
+- **PDF quirks (verbatim in source):** continuation-page year headers on Tables
+  4.5/4.6 print "… 2029 2029" where page 1 prints "… 2029 2030" — columns mapped
+  positionally per the page-1 header. Table 4.6's source line is garbled
+  ("Source: UKMOD and , and Scottish Government statistics…"). WFA 2024 collapse
+  (12,057k → 1,583k simulated; 11,626k → 1,268k official) is the real
+  winter-fuel-payment restriction, not a parse error.
+- Report's own health warnings (§4.3, worth quoting at diagnosis time): take-up
+  probabilities other than Scotland/pension-age **not updated since 2021**; IS
+  over-simulated / ESA under-simulated (limited-capability-for-work imputation);
+  child poverty understates HBAI (take-up assumptions); tax credits understate
+  admin data (prior-year income + finalised awards); UKMOD policy year = Apr-Mar
+  fiscal year (report §2, "financial year … April to March") → period = start
+  year, conditions.fy = "YYYY/YY".
+- NOT staged (available in the PDF for a second pass): Annex 6.6 FRS-only twins
+  of all four tables (Tables 6.10-6.15) — useful for input-data-sensitivity
+  diagnosis; Table 4.2 earnings by subgroup; COVID-era shock tables.
+
+### CeMPA WP 3/26 — Autumn Budget policy assessment (Frimpong, Feb 2026)
+UKMOD static scoring of the Autumn Budget package (income tax threshold freezes,
+UC two-child limit removal, WFA restrictions, Pension Credit reductions);
+reform_hint verbatim on every row. Staged: Table 1 (UK fiscal overview 2026-2030:
+revenue/expenditure levels baseline+reform, revenue_change, expenditure_change,
+net_fiscal_impact), Table 1.2 (by nation + per-capita), Table 2 (fixed-line AHC
+poverty counts baseline/reform/change by group, 2026+2030), Table 2.1 (poverty
+count change by nation, all years), Table 2.4 (child poverty rate baseline→reform
+by nation + count change), Tables 3a/3b (Gini + S80/S20, AHC and BHC,
+baseline/reform/change). Every transcribed raw string machine-verified to appear
+in the extracted text. NOT staged: Tables 4/4.1 (income shares by decile),
+5/5.1 (mean income by decile), gainers/losers §8 — in the PDF, second pass.
+- **Title-year quirk:** WP title says "Autumn Budget Statement 2026", inner cover
+  says "…2025". Measures match the Nov-2025 Autumn Budget (two-child limit
+  removal etc.) analyzed over 2026-2030. Kept the WP title verbatim in
+  publication; flagged here.
+- Baseline is UKMOD's pre-Budget system; `conditions.scenario` =
+  baseline | reform | reform_minus_baseline. No executable reform dict staged —
+  ingest should build the PE-UK parametric reform from the hint.
+
+## JRF side (source "jrf")
+
+### UK Poverty 2026 data workbook (published 2026-01-27)
+81-sheet xlsx behind the landing page's download button — fully machine-readable,
+many series **unrounded** (e.g. OG1 poverty rates to 15 decimals). Underlying data
+per sheet's own Source row — mostly **HBAI 2023/24 (DWP)**; DDT1 is Understanding
+Society. JRF headline measure = relative poverty, **below 60% median AHC**
+(deep = 50%, very deep = 40%; persistent = AHC relative poverty in 3+ of last 4
+years — definitions sheet A1T2).
+Staged: OT1 (headline counts+rates, 12 groups, 2023/24), GT1 (14 nations/regions,
+3-year average 2021-2024 per table title), DDT1 (persistent poverty + persistent
+very deep poverty, 17 groups, 2022-23), OG1 (headline AHC rate time series
+1994/95-2023/24 × 5 groups, 150 obs, unrounded; UK from 2002/03, GB before),
+FAST2 (child poverty by family size/parents/age, 13 subgroups), A1T1 (poverty/
+deep/very-deep thresholds + median by 5 family types, weekly unrounded + annual
+rounded; income concept not stated on-sheet — flagged in conditions).
+- Rate cells mix fractions (0.21) and percents (21) across sheets — deterministic
+  rule value>1 ⇒ /100, normalization recorded per row.
+- `calibration_relationship` left `held_out` BUT: these are HBAI-derived numbers.
+  Whether policyengine-uk consumes HBAI poverty stats as calibration targets was
+  NOT verified this session — audit against policyengine-uk calibration configs
+  at ingest before any "held-out validation" claim.
+- NOT staged (clean, high-value second pass): EXG2/DDG1 poverty-depth composition
+  time series; GM2 child poverty by Westminster constituency (local-area
+  validation surface); SSG2/SST1 poverty by benefit receipt; HOT1/HOG1 by tenure;
+  WG1-4 work status; EG1-3 ethnicity; A3G1 median income BHC/AHC series.
+
+### Minimum Income Standard 2025 (JRF / CRSP Loughborough)
+Table 2 weekly budgets, April 2025, 4 household types × 16 components + 6 totals
+(incl. AHC-comparable and BHC-comparable totals) = 88 cells, all verified against
+extracted text. proposed_metric `minimum_income_standard_budget`. MIS is a
+consensus budget standard, NOT HBAI-derived — noted in publication.vintage.
+- **Erratum seed:** 2024 MIS working-age couple budgets omitted one mobile phone
+  (~£3/wk); corrected in 2025 (report note). Any 2024-vintage MIS comparison
+  should expect this.
+
+## Schema / ingest worklist for this lane
+- proposed_unit **gbp** (+ gbp_per_week/_year/_month/_person) everywhere monetary —
+  UnitConcept has USD only. value_kind used: count | share | **currency_gbp**
+  (extension needed).
+- proposed_metric recurring: tax_revenue, taxpayer_count, poverty_count,
+  government_revenue/expenditure, expenditure_change, net_fiscal_impact(_per_capita),
+  gini_coefficient(_change), s80_s20_ratio(_change), income_share,
+  mean/median_equivalised_disposable_income, median_income, poverty_threshold,
+  persistent_poverty_rate, minimum_income_standard_budget.
+- Load-bearing conditions on every distribution row: income_concept (BHC for
+  UKMOD validation; AHC for JRF headline + CeMPA fixed-poverty; both in 3a/3b),
+  equivalisation, series, scenario, fy (Apr-Mar).
+- Period: UK fiscal year start-year int + conditions.fy label; GT1 carries a
+  3-year window condition; DDT1 a 4-wave window.
+
+## Blockers / follow-ups
+- None hard. ISER fully open (no Cloudflare); JRF fine at 20s spacing; frontify
+  CDN unrestricted.
+- ukmod.iser.essex.ac.uk itself (the model's own site) not needed for tables this
+  round — country report carries the validation block. If a "UKMOD statistics
+  release" page exists separately, it wasn't needed; CeMPA WP index at
+  iser.essex.ac.uk is the canonical feed (cempa2-25 = prior-year country report
+  2022-2029, available for vintage-drift analysis).
+- Second-pass queue above (annex FRS twins; deciles/gainers tables; ~10 more JRF
+  sheets incl. constituency map data).
diff --git a/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_ukmod_jrf/claims_staged.jsonl.gz b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_ukmod_jrf/claims_staged.jsonl.gz
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..027f55a
Binary files /dev/null and b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_ukmod_jrf/claims_staged.jsonl.gz differ
diff --git a/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_ukmod_jrf/manifest.jsonl b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_ukmod_jrf/manifest.jsonl
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..65954b9
--- /dev/null
+++ b/sources/harvest-uk-2026-08-02/uk_ukmod_jrf/manifest.jsonl
@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
+{"url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa8-26.pdf", "title": "UKMOD Country Report 2023-2030 (CeMPA WP 8/26, van de Ven & Popova)", "date": "2026-04", "sha256": "82ba4ef13b7a4cfc18136231fb8e908a8e60e0b23d8e6a917fda422051d05a42", "local_path": "downloads/cempa8-26-UKMOD-country-report-2023-2030.pdf", "doc_type": "pdf", "size_bytes": 2026848, "fetched": "2026-08-02", "fetch_mode": "live", "source": "ukmod", "publisher": "CeMPA / ISER, University of Essex"}
+{"url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA WP 3/26, Frimpong)", "date": "2026-02", "sha256": "7c3f48bda8f213f933b153482c50be58c5e0d8a86b49257359876c64dec6097a", "local_path": "downloads/cempa3-26-autumn-budget-2026-assessment.pdf", "doc_type": "pdf", "size_bytes": 1247968, "fetched": "2026-08-02", "fetch_mode": "live", "source": "ukmod", "publisher": "CeMPA / ISER, University of Essex"}
+{"url": "https://jrf-jrht-brand.frontify.com/api/asset/eyJjbGllbnRJZCI6ImNsaWVudC1tenFieWtsc2Z0ZHpoN3V3IiwiaWQiOjI0NDUyLCJ0aW1lc3RhbXAiOjE3ODE4NTc5MTIsInZlcnNpb24iOjE3Njg5MjU5NDV9:joseph-rowntree-foundation:lCOFPB72sNUxVL9cJueQm6qxfegel_BrtdF3Y3Ku-iM/download", "title": "UK Poverty 2026 data tables workbook (81 sheets; linked from report page as its download asset)", "date": "2026-01-27", "sha256": "3c694c572264db1c36cb7f1e398d8f7e00ae0095fa8a9ae72e34b43a43140e09", "local_path": "downloads/jrf-uk-poverty-2026-download.xlsx", "doc_type": "xlsx", "size_bytes": 4891183, "fetched": "2026-08-02", "fetch_mode": "live", "source": "jrf", "publisher": "Joseph Rowntree Foundation"}
+{"url": "https://www.jrf.org.uk/uk-poverty-2026-the-essential-guide-to-understanding-poverty-in-the-uk", "title": "UK Poverty 2026: The essential guide to understanding poverty in the UK (landing page)", "date": "2026-01-27", "sha256": "48abe893f666b224cabc572d243293dc0057d4c02165eb6c5fe794dab49b822e", "local_path": "pages/jrf-uk-poverty-2026.html", "doc_type": "html", "size_bytes": 116403, "fetched": "2026-08-02", "fetch_mode": "live", "source": "jrf", "publisher": "Joseph Rowntree Foundation"}
+{"url": "https://www.jrf.org.uk/sites/default/files/pdfs/a-minimum-income-standard-for-the-united-kingdom-in-2025-291bb2358c87345923b9bb56d12124a9.pdf", "title": "A Minimum Income Standard for the United Kingdom in 2025", "date": "2025", "sha256": "1097b57784364a1710109cb620c43b8cde025e296295c87c6093bd0c22a6613d", "local_path": "downloads/jrf-minimum-income-standard-uk-2025.pdf", "doc_type": "pdf", "size_bytes": 786301, "fetched": "2026-08-02", "fetch_mode": "live", "source": "jrf", "publisher": "Joseph Rowntree Foundation / CRSP Loughborough"}
diff --git a/tests/test_campaign_uk_ingest.py b/tests/test_campaign_uk_ingest.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..f2bb41c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/tests/test_campaign_uk_ingest.py
@@ -0,0 +1,231 @@
+"""UK campaign compute-batch ingest tests (2026-08-02).
+
+End-to-end against a module-scoped scratch DB: US harvest (for the CPSP
+register diagnoses) + UK harvest claims ingested first, then the UK
+campaign batch joined on top via scorecard_db/ingest_campaign_uk (the US
+day-1 families are ingest_campaign's, tested in test_campaign_ingest).
+Checks the join surfaces, the #13 baseline recording (executed baselines
+on results and the pre_ab2025 exhibits), the descriptive-register
+statuses/diagnoses, the pentagon attachments, and idempotency.
+"""
+
+import json
+
+import pytest
+
+from scorecard_db import ScorecardDB, baseline_key
+
+pytestmark = pytest.mark.filterwarnings("ignore")
+
+
+@pytest.fixture(scope="module")
+def campaign_db(tmp_path_factory):
+    from scorecard_db import ingest_campaign_uk, ingest_harvest, ingest_uk
+
+    path = tmp_path_factory.mktemp("campaign_uk") / "scorecard.db"
+    ingest_harvest.ingest(path)
+    ingest_uk.ingest(path)
+    stats = ingest_campaign_uk.ingest(path)
+    db = ScorecardDB(path)
+    yield db, stats
+    db.close()
+
+
+class TestJoinCounts:
+    def test_every_family_lands(self, campaign_db):
+        _, stats = campaign_db
+        assert stats["results"] == {
+            "uk_reckoner": 23,
+            "uk_free_joins": 23,
+            "uk_obr_measures": 10,
+            "uk_uprating": 6,
+            "two_child_pentagon": 3,
+            "total": 65,
+        }
+        assert stats["pentagon_exhibit_rows_superseded"] == 1
+        assert stats["exhibits"] == 11
+        assert stats["diagnoses"] == 8
+
+    def test_only_the_two_honest_skips(self, campaign_db):
+        _, stats = campaign_db
+        assert len(stats["skipped"]) == 2
+        assert any("LCWRA" in s for s in stats["skipped"])
+        assert any("LHA" in s for s in stats["skipped"])
+
+    def test_idempotent_reingest(self, campaign_db, tmp_path):
+        db, _ = campaign_db
+        from scorecard_db import ingest_campaign_uk
+
+        before = db.conn.execute("SELECT COUNT(*) FROM pe_results").fetchone()[0]
+        ingest_campaign_uk.ingest(db.path)
+        after = db.conn.execute("SELECT COUNT(*) FROM pe_results").fetchone()[0]
+        assert before == after
+
+
+class TestReckonerJoins:
+    def test_basic_rate_magnitude_and_provenance(self, campaign_db):
+        db, _ = campaign_db
+        row = db.conn.execute(
+            "SELECT c.pe_value, c.value, c.pe_status, c.pe_baseline_key,"
+            " c.data_bundle"
+            " FROM comparisons c WHERE c.source='hmrc' AND c.period=2026"
+            " AND json_extract(c.conditions,'$.measure')="
+            "'Change basic rate by 1p'"
+        ).fetchone()
+        assert row["pe_status"] == "constructed"
+        assert abs(row["pe_value"] - 7.278e9) < 5e6  # |PE delta|
+        assert row["value"] == pytest.approx(6.9e9)  # HMRC magnitude
+        assert row["pe_baseline_key"] == baseline_key({"policy": "current_law"})
+        assert row["data_bundle"].startswith("populace-uk-2023")
+
+    def test_all_23_runs_joined(self, campaign_db):
+        db, _ = campaign_db
+        n = db.conn.execute(
+            "SELECT COUNT(*) FROM pe_results WHERE run_id='uk-reckoner-2026'"
+        ).fetchone()[0]
+        assert n == 23
+
+
+class TestFreeJoins:
+    def test_dwp_vintage_caveat_surfaces(self, campaign_db):
+        """The campaign runner selected BECL rows by the staged end-year
+        ints, so its nominal-2026 state_pension value is the FY2025-26
+        cell — the result attaches to the claim the value identifies and
+        says so."""
+        db, _ = campaign_db
+        row = db.conn.execute(
+            "SELECT r.annotations, s.period FROM pe_results r"
+            " JOIN external_scores s USING (claim_id)"
+            " WHERE r.run_id='uk-free-joins-2026' AND s.source='dwp'"
+            " AND json_extract(s.conditions,'$.program')='state_pension'"
+        ).fetchone()
+        assert row["period"] == 2025
+        assert "end-year" in row["annotations"]
+
+    def test_skipped_rows_are_not_computed_with_reasons(self, campaign_db):
+        db, _ = campaign_db
+        rows = db.conn.execute(
+            "SELECT r.status, r.annotations FROM pe_results r"
+            " JOIN external_scores s USING (claim_id)"
+            " WHERE r.run_id='uk-free-joins-2026'"
+            " AND json_extract(s.conditions,'$.line_item')="
+            "'Pay as you earn'"
+        ).fetchall()
+        assert len(rows) == 2  # 3.4 accrued + 3.8 cash claims
+        for r in rows:
+            assert r["status"] == "not_computed"
+            assert "collection channel" in r["annotations"]
+
+
+class TestOBRMeasureJoins:
+    def test_anchor_carries_component_sum(self, campaign_db):
+        db, _ = campaign_db
+        rows = db.conn.execute(
+            "SELECT annotations FROM pe_results"
+            " WHERE run_id='uk-obr-measure-reversals-2026'"
+        ).fetchall()
+        assert len(rows) == 10
+        for r in rows:
+            assert "external anchor = sum of the measure's" in (r["annotations"])
+
+
+class TestUpratingChecks:
+    def test_parameter_checks_are_comparable_and_close(self, campaign_db):
+        db, _ = campaign_db
+        rows = db.conn.execute(
+            "SELECT c.value, c.pe_value, c.pe_status_effective,"
+            " json_extract(c.conditions,'$.program') AS program"
+            " FROM comparisons c"
+            " WHERE c.source='resolution_foundation'"
+            " AND c.metric='benefit_uprating' AND c.pe_value IS NOT NULL"
+        ).fetchall()
+        assert len(rows) == 4
+        for r in rows:
+            assert r["pe_status_effective"] == "comparable"
+            # RF states rounded percentages; the tree gives exact ones.
+            assert abs(r["pe_value"] - r["value"]) < 5e-4, r["program"]
+
+
+class TestPentagonAttachments:
+    def test_three_rows_land_with_pre_ab2025_baseline(self, campaign_db):
+        db, _ = campaign_db
+        from scorecard_db import baseline_key as bk
+
+        rows = db.conn.execute(
+            "SELECT r.status, r.baseline_key, s.source FROM pe_results r"
+            " JOIN external_scores s USING (claim_id)"
+            " WHERE r.run_id='uk-two-child-pentagon-2026'"
+        ).fetchall()
+        assert len(rows) == 3
+        assert {r["source"] for r in rows} == {
+            "resolution_foundation",
+            "ukmod",
+        }
+        pre = bk({"policy": "pre_ab2025"})
+        for r in rows:
+            assert r["baseline_key"] == pre
+            assert r["status"] in ("concept_mismatch", "constructed")
+
+    def test_govt_450k_leg(self, campaign_db):
+        db, _ = campaign_db
+        row = db.conn.execute(
+            "SELECT c.pe_value, c.value, c.pe_status FROM comparisons c"
+            " WHERE c.source='resolution_foundation'"
+            " AND c.metric='poverty_count_change' AND c.period=2029"
+            " AND json_extract(c.conditions,'$.attribution')="
+            "'Government estimate cited by RF'"
+        ).fetchone()
+        assert row["value"] == pytest.approx(-450000)
+        assert row["pe_value"] == pytest.approx(-243108, abs=5)
+        assert row["pe_status"] == "concept_mismatch"
+
+
+class TestCPSPDiagnoses:
+    def test_levels_carry_descriptive_diagnoses(self, campaign_db):
+        db, _ = campaign_db
+        rows = db.conn.execute(
+            "SELECT c.diagnosis_class, c.action_link"
+            " FROM comparisons c"
+            " WHERE c.source='cpsp' AND c.period=2024"
+            " AND c.metric='poverty_rate'"
+            " AND c.diagnosis_class='methodological_difference'"
+        ).fetchall()
+        assert len(rows) == 8
+        for r in rows:
+            assert r["diagnosis_class"] == "methodological_difference"
+            assert "populace/issues/593" in r["action_link"]
+
+
+class TestTwoChildExhibits:
+    def test_exhibits_record_the_executed_baseline(self, campaign_db):
+        db, _ = campaign_db
+        rows = db.conn.execute(
+            "SELECT * FROM pe_exhibits WHERE exhibit='uk-two-child-limit'"
+        ).fetchall()
+        assert len(rows) == 11
+        pre = baseline_key({"policy": "pre_ab2025"})
+        for r in rows:
+            assert r["baseline_key"] == pre
+            reform = json.loads(r["reform_json"])
+            assert reform["reform"]["policy"] == "two_child_limit_removal"
+            assert reform["baseline"]["policy"] == "pre_ab2025"
+
+    def test_headline_removal_effects(self, campaign_db):
+        db, _ = campaign_db
+
+        def delta(takeup, group):
+            return db.conn.execute(
+                "SELECT delta FROM pe_exhibits"
+                " WHERE exhibit='uk-two-child-limit'"
+                " AND metric='poverty_count_change'"
+                " AND json_extract(conditions,'$.takeup')=?"
+                " AND json_extract(conditions,'$.child_definition')=?",
+                (takeup, group),
+            ).fetchone()["delta"]
+
+        assert delta("calibrated", "hbai_dep") == pytest.approx(-243108, abs=5)
+        assert delta("entitlements_basis", "hbai_dep") == pytest.approx(-277287, abs=5)
+
+    def test_registry_covers_every_baseline_in_use(self, campaign_db):
+        db, _ = campaign_db
+        assert db.unregistered_baselines() == []
diff --git a/tests/test_scorecard_db.py b/tests/test_scorecard_db.py
index 8f4c0b0..7a4516a 100644
--- a/tests/test_scorecard_db.py
+++ b/tests/test_scorecard_db.py
@@ -516,3 +516,198 @@ def test_admin_metrics_unaffected(self):
 
         assert not never_calibrate(Metric.PARTICIPATION_RATE)
         assert not never_calibrate(Metric.ELIGIBLE_COUNT)
+
+
+class TestBaselineRegistry:
+    """Baseline as a first-class attribute of every score (issue #13)."""
+
+    def test_null_baseline_keys_current_law(self):
+        from scorecard_db import CURRENT_LAW_DESCRIPTOR, baseline_key
+
+        assert BASELINE.baseline_key() == baseline_key(CURRENT_LAW_DESCRIPTOR)
+        pe = ReformRef("policyengine_us", reform={"p": {"2025": 1}})
+        assert pe.baseline_key() == BASELINE.baseline_key()
+
+    def test_non_current_law_baseline_distinct(self):
+        r = ReformRef(
+            framework="policy_ref",
+            reform={"policy": "obbba"},
+            baseline={"policy": "tcja_extension"},
+        )
+        assert r.baseline_key() != BASELINE.baseline_key()
+
+    def test_descriptor_requires_policy_slug(self):
+        from scorecard_db import baseline_key
+
+        with pytest.raises(ValueError):
+            baseline_key({"label": "nope"})
+
+    def test_claim_id_unchanged_by_baseline_key_projection(self):
+        # Additive projection only: the #13 columns must not move ids.
+        assert score().claim_id() == "157243b61838075381ed"
+
+    def test_scores_carry_baseline_key(self, tmp_path):
+        db = ScorecardDB(tmp_path / "t.db")
+        db.upsert_scores([score()])
+        row = db.conn.execute("SELECT baseline_key FROM external_scores").fetchone()
+        assert row["baseline_key"] == BASELINE.baseline_key()
+        db.close()
+
+    def test_registry_seeding_and_unregistered_detection(self, tmp_path):
+        from scorecard_db.baselines import register_baselines
+
+        db = ScorecardDB(tmp_path / "t.db")
+        db.upsert_scores([score()])
+        register_baselines(db)
+        assert db.unregistered_baselines() == []
+        row = db.comparisons()[0]
+        assert row["claim_baseline_label"] == "current_law"
+
+        alien = score(
+            conditions={"geography": "US", "program": "wic"},
+            reform=ReformRef(
+                framework="policy_ref",
+                reform={"policy": "x"},
+                baseline={"policy": "never_registered_world"},
+            ),
+        )
+        db.upsert_scores([alien])
+        with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="never_registered"):
+            register_baselines(db)
+        db.close()
+
+    def test_view_guard_downgrades_cross_baseline_agreement(self, tmp_path):
+        """comparable vs a different executed baseline can never render as
+        plain agreement — pe_status_effective says constructed."""
+        from scorecard_db import baseline_key
+
+        db = ScorecardDB(tmp_path / "t.db")
+        s = score()
+        db.upsert_scores([s])
+        db.add_results(
+            [
+                PEResult(
+                    claim_id=s.claim_id(),
+                    computed_value=999.0,
+                    status=ComparisonStatus.COMPARABLE,
+                    engine_version="x",
+                    data_bundle="y",
+                    baseline_key=baseline_key({"policy": "pre_ab2025"}),
+                )
+            ]
+        )
+        row = db.comparisons()[0]
+        assert row["pe_status"] == "comparable"
+        assert row["pe_status_effective"] == "constructed"
+        db.close()
+
+    def test_view_guard_passes_same_baseline(self, tmp_path):
+        db = ScorecardDB(tmp_path / "t.db")
+        s = score()
+        db.upsert_scores([s])
+        db.add_results(
+            [
+                PEResult(
+                    claim_id=s.claim_id(),
+                    computed_value=999.0,
+                    status=ComparisonStatus.COMPARABLE,
+                    engine_version="x",
+                    data_bundle="y",
+                    baseline_key=BASELINE.baseline_key(),
+                )
+            ]
+        )
+        row = db.comparisons()[0]
+        assert row["pe_status_effective"] == "comparable"
+        db.close()
+
+    def test_legacy_results_without_baseline_pass_through(self, tmp_path):
+        db = ScorecardDB(tmp_path / "t.db")
+        s = score()
+        db.upsert_scores([s])
+        db.add_results(
+            [
+                PEResult(
+                    claim_id=s.claim_id(),
+                    computed_value=999.0,
+                    status=ComparisonStatus.COMPARABLE,
+                    engine_version="x",
+                    data_bundle="y",
+                )
+            ]
+        )
+        assert db.comparisons()[0]["pe_status_effective"] == "comparable"
+        db.close()
+
+
+class TestDescriptiveRegister:
+    """Issue #9 latest ruling: normative classes gated on citable issues."""
+
+    def test_gated_classes_require_action_link(self, tmp_path):
+        db = ScorecardDB(tmp_path / "t.db")
+        s = score()
+        db.upsert_scores([s])
+        for cls in ("pe_gap", "external_issue"):
+            with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="citable"):
+                db.diagnose(s.claim_id(), cls, "divergence looks big")
+        db.diagnose(
+            s.claim_id(),
+            "pe_gap",
+            "EHS at engine-default take-up",
+            action_link="https://github.com/PolicyEngine/populace/issues/593",
+        )
+        db.close()
+
+    def test_methodological_difference_is_descriptive(self, tmp_path):
+        db = ScorecardDB(tmp_path / "t.db")
+        s = score()
+        db.upsert_scores([s])
+        db.diagnose(
+            s.claim_id(),
+            "methodological_difference",
+            "Populace calculates benefits and recalibrates where ASEC "
+            "carries reported attributes.",
+        )
+        assert db.comparisons()[0]["diagnosis_class"] == "methodological_difference"
+        db.close()
+
+    def test_old_diagnoses_table_migrates_to_new_check(self, tmp_path):
+        import sqlite3 as s3
+
+        path = tmp_path / "old.db"
+        conn = s3.connect(path)
+        conn.executescript(
+            """
+            CREATE TABLE external_scores (
+                claim_id TEXT PRIMARY KEY, source TEXT NOT NULL,
+                source_model TEXT, ledger_fact TEXT, source_column TEXT,
+                publication TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT '{}',
+                reform_key TEXT NOT NULL, reform_json TEXT NOT NULL,
+                metric TEXT NOT NULL, unit_concept TEXT NOT NULL,
+                period INTEGER NOT NULL, time_basis TEXT NOT NULL,
+                conditions TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT '{}',
+                geography TEXT, program TEXT, value REAL,
+                value_kind TEXT NOT NULL, status TEXT NOT NULL,
+                calibration_relationship TEXT NOT NULL
+            );
+            CREATE TABLE diagnoses (
+                claim_id TEXT PRIMARY KEY,
+                diagnosis_class TEXT NOT NULL CHECK (diagnosis_class IN (
+                    'pe_gap','external_issue','concept_mismatch','vintage',
+                    'undiagnosed'
+                )),
+                rationale TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
+                action_link TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT ''
+            );
+            INSERT INTO diagnoses VALUES ('c1', 'vintage', 'r', '');
+            """
+        )
+        conn.close()
+        db = ScorecardDB(path)
+        db.upsert_scores([score()])
+        db.diagnose(score().claim_id(), "methodological_difference", "ok")
+        kept = db.conn.execute(
+            "SELECT diagnosis_class FROM diagnoses WHERE claim_id='c1'"
+        ).fetchone()
+        assert kept["diagnosis_class"] == "vintage"
+        db.close()
diff --git a/tests/test_uk_ingest.py b/tests/test_uk_ingest.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..9a097e4
--- /dev/null
+++ b/tests/test_uk_ingest.py
@@ -0,0 +1,496 @@
+"""UK-harvest adapter tests (2026-08-02 population).
+
+Staging-level: every test reads the vendored gzipped staging through the
+adapters' stage() functions (module-cached — OBR is 25k rows) and checks
+the load-bearing decisions: FY normalization, ledger routing, verified
+calibration relationships, reform worlds, and full-accounting against
+the staged row counts (33,943 across seven sources).
+"""
+
+import pytest
+
+from scorecard_db import (
+    BASELINE,
+    CalibrationRelationship,
+    Metric,
+    ScorecardDB,
+)
+from scorecard_db.uk import (
+    ledger_row,
+    parse_fy,
+    parse_fy_window,
+    slugify,
+    write_ledger_staging,
+)
+
+CR = CalibrationRelationship
+
+
+@pytest.fixture(scope="module")
+def obr():
+    from scorecard_db.ingest_uk_obr import stage
+
+    return stage()
+
+
+@pytest.fixture(scope="module")
+def dwp():
+    from scorecard_db.ingest_uk_dwp import stage
+
+    return stage()
+
+
+@pytest.fixture(scope="module")
+def hmrc():
+    from scorecard_db.ingest_uk_hmrc import stage
+
+    return stage()
+
+
+@pytest.fixture(scope="module")
+def hmt():
+    from scorecard_db.ingest_uk_hmt import stage
+
+    return stage()
+
+
+@pytest.fixture(scope="module")
+def ukmod_jrf():
+    from scorecard_db.ingest_uk_ukmod_jrf import stage
+
+    return stage()
+
+
+@pytest.fixture(scope="module")
+def ifs():
+    from scorecard_db.ingest_uk_ifs import stage
+
+    return stage()
+
+
+@pytest.fixture(scope="module")
+def rf():
+    from scorecard_db.ingest_uk_rf import stage
+
+    return stage()
+
+
+class TestFiscalYears:
+    """period = FY START year, derived from the verbatim label."""
+
+    def test_start_year_forms(self):
+        assert parse_fy("2026-27") == (2026, "2026-27")
+        assert parse_fy("2023/24") == (2023, "2023-24")
+        assert parse_fy("1970-71") == (1970, "1970-71")
+
+    def test_fye_is_end_year_convention(self):
+        assert parse_fy("FYE 2010") == (2009, "2009-10")
+        assert parse_fy("FYE 2025") == (2024, "2024-25")
+
+    def test_century_wrap_fixes_the_1900_defect(self):
+        # Staged as period=1900 upstream; the label is authoritative.
+        assert parse_fy("1999/00") == (1999, "1999-00")
+
+    def test_non_contiguous_rejected(self):
+        with pytest.raises(ValueError):
+            parse_fy("2026-28")
+        with pytest.raises(ValueError):
+            parse_fy("not a year")
+
+    def test_windows(self):
+        assert parse_fy_window("2025-26 to 2029-30") == (
+            2025,
+            2029,
+            "2025-26 to 2029-30",
+        )
+        assert parse_fy_window("2021/22-2023/24") == (
+            2021,
+            2023,
+            "2021-22 to 2023-24",
+        )
+
+
+class TestFullAccounting:
+    """scores + ledger + deliberate drops (+ merged twins) == staged."""
+
+    def test_obr(self, obr):
+        scores, ledger = obr
+        assert len(scores) == 25425
+        assert len(ledger) == 133
+        assert len(scores) + len(ledger) == 25558
+
+    def test_dwp(self, dwp):
+        scores, ledger = dwp
+        assert len(scores) == 1952
+        assert len(ledger) == 102
+        assert len(scores) + len(ledger) == 2054
+
+    def test_hmrc(self, hmrc):
+        scores, ledger = hmrc
+        assert len(scores) == 987
+        assert len(ledger) == 1855
+        assert len(scores) + len(ledger) == 2842
+
+    def test_hmt(self, hmt):
+        scores, ledger = hmt
+        assert (len(scores), len(ledger)) == (1368, 0)
+
+    def test_ukmod_jrf(self, ukmod_jrf):
+        scores, ledger, dropped_mis = ukmod_jrf
+        merged = sum(1 for s in scores if "also_published" in s.publication)
+        assert dropped_mis == 88
+        assert merged == 2
+        assert len(scores) + dropped_mis + merged == 1782
+
+    def test_ifs(self, ifs):
+        scores, ledger = ifs[0], ifs[1]
+        assert (len(scores), len(ledger)) == (268, 0)
+
+    def test_rf(self, rf):
+        scores, _, dropped = rf
+        assert len(scores) == 70
+        assert dropped == 1  # price-index-only row, out of model scope
+
+
+class TestLedgerRouting:
+    """Admin outturn facts never enter external_scores (Max 2026-08-02)."""
+
+    def test_no_outturn_reaches_scores(self, obr, dwp, hmrc):
+        for scores, _ledger, *rest in (obr, dwp, hmrc):
+            for s in scores:
+                assert s.conditions.get("basis") not in (
+                    "outturn",
+                    "provisional",
+                ), s.conditions
+
+    def test_ledger_rows_carry_provenance_and_ids(self, hmrc):
+        _, ledger = hmrc
+        for row in ledger[:10]:
+            assert row["fact_id"].startswith("uk:uk_hmrc:")
+            assert "routing rule" in row["routed_because"]
+            assert row["staged"]["conditions"]["basis"] in (
+                "outturn",
+                "provisional",
+            )
+
+    def test_survey_outcomes_stay_scorecard_side(self, dwp):
+        scores, _ = dwp
+        hbai = [s for s in scores if s.source_model == "dwp_hbai_frs"]
+        assert len(hbai) == 1040  # HBAI is a survey outcome, not admin
+
+    def test_staging_file_is_deterministic(self, tmp_path):
+        rows = [
+            ledger_row("uk_x", {"a": 1}, "test"),
+            ledger_row("uk_x", {"a": 2}, "test"),
+        ]
+        p = tmp_path / "ledger.jsonl"
+        assert write_ledger_staging(rows, p) == 2
+        first = p.read_text()
+        write_ledger_staging(list(reversed(rows)), p)
+        assert p.read_text() == first  # sorted by fact id
+
+    def test_duplicate_fact_ids_raise(self, tmp_path):
+        rows = [ledger_row("uk_x", {"a": 1}, "test")] * 2
+        with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="duplicate"):
+            write_ledger_staging(rows, tmp_path / "ledger.jsonl")
+
+    def test_identical_cells_in_different_sections_stay_distinct(self):
+        staged = {"value": 1.0, "conditions": {"line_item": "DWP"}}
+        a = ledger_row("uk_obr", staged, "r", derived={"section": "cap"})
+        b = ledger_row("uk_obr", staged, "r", derived={"section": "total"})
+        assert a["fact_id"] != b["fact_id"]
+
+
+class TestOBR:
+    def test_consumed_lines_match_pe_uk_data_exactly(self, obr):
+        scores, _ = obr
+        consumed = [
+            s for s in scores if s.calibration_relationship is CR.CONSUMED_AS_TARGET
+        ]
+        # 25 line-families (12 receipts/CT/NICs heads incl. the 3.4/3.8
+        # twins + 13 welfare (line, section) pairs) × 6 forecast years.
+        assert len(consumed) == 150
+        assert all(s.conditions["basis"] == "forecast" for s in consumed)
+        assert all("calibration_basis" in s.publication for s in consumed)
+        welfare = {
+            (s.conditions["line_item"], s.conditions["section"])
+            for s in consumed
+            if s.conditions["table"] == "4.9"
+        }
+        assert ("Universal credit", "welfare_cap") in welfare
+        assert ("Universal credit", "outside_welfare_cap") in welfare
+        assert ("State pension", "outside_welfare_cap") in welfare
+
+    def test_measures_are_reform_worlds_with_verbatim_titles(self, obr):
+        scores, _ = obr
+        measures = [s for s in scores if s.source_model == "hmt_scorecard_obr_database"]
+        assert len(measures) == 24304
+        for s in measures[:50]:
+            assert s.reform.framework == "policy_ref"
+            assert s.reform.reform["policy"].startswith("uk_obr_measure:")
+            assert "measure" in s.conditions
+            assert "fiscal_event" in s.conditions
+
+    def test_duplicate_titled_components_disambiguated(self, obr):
+        scores, _ = obr
+        pa95 = [
+            s
+            for s in scores
+            if s.conditions.get("fiscal_event") == "Budget 1995"
+            and s.conditions.get("measure") == "Increase PA"
+            and s.conditions["fy"] == "1996-97"
+        ]
+        assert len(pa95) == 3
+        assert {s.conditions.get("component_seq") for s in pa95} == {
+            None,
+            "2",
+            "3",
+        }
+        # Same measure world — the database's unit of identity is the
+        # titled line; components are conditions axes.
+        assert len({s.reform.key() for s in pa95}) == 1
+
+    def test_efo_vintage_split(self, obr):
+        scores, _ = obr
+        efo = [s for s in scores if s.source_model == "obr_efo_forecast"]
+        vintages = {(s.conditions["table"], s.conditions["data_vintage"]) for s in efo}
+        assert ("3.4", "march_2026_efo") in vintages
+        assert ("4.9", "november_2025_efo") in vintages
+        assert ("4.9", "march_2026_efo") not in vintages
+
+
+class TestDWP:
+    def test_period_derived_from_fy(self, dwp):
+        scores, _ = dwp
+        assert min(s.period for s in scores) == 1994  # not 1900
+        with_fy = [s for s in scores if "fy" in s.conditions]
+        for s in with_fy[:200]:
+            assert s.conditions["fy"].startswith(str(s.period))
+
+    def test_pc_takeup_seed_source(self, dwp):
+        scores, _ = dwp
+        pc = [
+            s
+            for s in scores
+            if s.source_model == "dwp_takeup_estimates"
+            and s.conditions.get("program") == "pension_credit"
+        ]
+        assert pc and all(s.calibration_relationship is CR.SEED_SOURCE for s in pc)
+
+    def test_hb_takeup_held_out_comparator(self, dwp):
+        scores, _ = dwp
+        hb = [
+            s
+            for s in scores
+            if s.source_model == "dwp_takeup_estimates"
+            and s.conditions.get("program") == "housing_benefit"
+        ]
+        assert hb and all(s.calibration_relationship is CR.HELD_OUT for s in hb)
+
+    def test_becl_consumption_exact(self, dwp):
+        scores, _ = dwp
+        becl_cost = [
+            s
+            for s in scores
+            if s.source_model == "dwp_becl" and s.metric is Metric.BENEFIT_COST
+        ]
+        consumed = {
+            s.conditions["program"]
+            for s in becl_cost
+            if s.calibration_relationship is CR.CONSUMED_AS_TARGET
+        }
+        assert consumed == {
+            "state_pension",
+            "universal_credit",
+            "pension_credit",
+            "attendance_allowance",
+            "child_benefit",
+        }
+        # Components of the consumed DLA+PIP aggregate stay held out,
+        # and caseloads too (obr.py parses expenditure only).
+        for s in becl_cost:
+            if s.conditions["program"] in ("dla", "pip"):
+                assert s.calibration_relationship is CR.HELD_OUT
+        for s in scores:
+            if s.source_model == "dwp_becl" and s.metric is Metric.CASELOAD:
+                assert s.calibration_relationship is CR.HELD_OUT
+
+    def test_uc_admin_consumed(self, dwp):
+        scores, _ = dwp
+        uc = [s for s in scores if s.source_model == "dwp_uc_admin"]
+        assert len(uc) == 5
+        assert all(s.calibration_relationship is CR.CONSUMED_AS_TARGET for s in uc)
+
+    def test_hbai_editions_and_permanent_holdout(self, dwp):
+        scores, _ = dwp
+        hbai = [s for s in scores if s.source_model == "dwp_hbai_frs"]
+        assert {s.conditions["edition"] for s in hbai} == {
+            "fye_2025",
+            "fye_2024",
+        }
+        assert all(s.calibration_relationship is CR.HELD_OUT for s in hbai)
+        assert all(
+            "income_concept" in s.conditions and "poverty_measure" in s.conditions
+            for s in hbai
+        )
+
+
+class TestHMRC:
+    def test_ready_reckoner_join_surface(self, hmrc):
+        scores, _ = hmrc
+        rr = [s for s in scores if s.source_model == "hmrc"]
+        assert len(rr) == 225
+        slug = f"uk_hmrc_rr:income_tax_rates:{slugify('Change basic rate by 1p')}"
+        basic = [
+            s for s in rr if s.reform.reform["policy"] == slug and s.period == 2026
+        ]
+        assert len(basic) == 1
+        assert basic[0].conditions["fy"] == "2026-27"
+
+    def test_spi_family_seeded(self, hmrc):
+        scores, _ = hmrc
+        spi = [s for s in scores if s.source_model == "hmrc_spi"]
+        seeded = [s for s in spi if s.calibration_relationship is CR.SEED_SOURCE]
+        consumed = [
+            s for s in spi if s.calibration_relationship is CR.CONSUMED_AS_TARGET
+        ]
+        assert len(seeded) == 726
+        assert len(consumed) == 36
+        for s in consumed:
+            assert s.metric is Metric.TAX_LIABILITY
+            assert s.conditions["band"].lower() in (
+                "all",
+                "total",
+                "all taxpayers",
+            )
+
+
+class TestHMT:
+    def test_counts_and_suppression(self, hmt):
+        scores, _ = hmt
+        assert len(scores) == 1368
+        assert sum(1 for s in scores if s.status == "suppressed") == 31
+        costings = [s for s in scores if s.source_model == "hmt_costing_obr_certified"]
+        assert all(s.metric is Metric.EXCHEQUER_IMPACT for s in costings)
+        assert all(s.reform.framework == "policy_ref" for s in costings)
+
+    def test_da_income_concept_verbatim(self, hmt):
+        scores, _ = hmt
+        da = [
+            s for s in scores if s.source_model == "hmt_distributional_analysis_igotm"
+        ]
+        assert len(da) == 150
+        assert all("equivalisation" in s.conditions for s in da)
+
+
+class TestIFS:
+    def test_steady_state_baseline_world(self, ifs):
+        scores = ifs[0]
+        with_baseline = [s for s in scores if s.reform.baseline is not None]
+        assert len(with_baseline) == 108
+        for s in with_baseline:
+            assert s.reform.baseline == {"policy": "ifs_2cl_fp_removal_rolled_out"}
+            assert s.conditions["baseline_policy"] == "ifs_2cl_fp_removal_rolled_out"
+            assert s.conditions["horizon"] == "steady_state"
+
+    def test_pentagon_leg_is_reform_keyed(self, ifs):
+        scores = ifs[0]
+        two_child = [
+            s
+            for s in scores
+            if s.conditions.get("measure") == "Remove two-child limit"
+            and s.metric is Metric.POVERTY_COUNT_CHANGE
+        ]
+        children = [s for s in two_child if s.unit_concept.value == "children_under_18"]
+        assert [s.value for s in children] == [-540000.0]
+
+
+class TestUKMODJRF:
+    def test_validation_series_axis(self, ukmod_jrf):
+        scores, _, _ = ukmod_jrf
+        series = {s.conditions.get("series") for s in scores if s.source == "ukmod"}
+        assert {
+            "ukmod_simulated",
+            "official_estimate",
+            "input_data",
+            "hbai",
+        } <= series
+
+    def test_cempa_package_world(self, ukmod_jrf):
+        scores, _, _ = ukmod_jrf
+        pkg = [
+            s
+            for s in scores
+            if s.reform.framework == "policy_ref"
+            and s.reform.reform["policy"] == "uk_autumn_budget_2025_package_cempa"
+        ]
+        assert len(pkg) == 209
+        assert {s.conditions["scenario"] for s in pkg} == {
+            "reform",
+            "reform_minus_baseline",
+        }
+
+    def test_persistent_poverty_windows(self, ukmod_jrf):
+        scores, _, _ = ukmod_jrf
+        windows = [s for s in scores if s.period_start is not None]
+        assert len(windows) == 28
+        for s in windows:
+            assert (s.period_start, s.period_end) == (2021, 2023)
+            assert s.conditions["window_kind"] == "annual_average"
+
+    def test_amount_basis_remap(self, ukmod_jrf):
+        scores, _, _ = ukmod_jrf
+        assert not any(
+            s.conditions.get("basis") for s in scores
+        )  # weekly/annual lives in amount_basis, basis keeps UK meaning
+        assert any(s.conditions.get("amount_basis") == "weekly" for s in scores)
+
+
+class TestRF:
+    def test_attribution_rows_distinct(self, rf):
+        scores, _, _ = rf
+        attributed = [s for s in scores if "attribution" in s.conditions]
+        assert len(attributed) == 8
+
+    def test_uprating_parameter_checks(self, rf):
+        scores, _, _ = rf
+        uprating = [s for s in scores if s.metric is Metric.BENEFIT_UPRATING]
+        assert len(uprating) == 11
+        assert all("program" in s.conditions for s in uprating)
+
+
+class TestUKPermanentHoldouts:
+    def test_poverty_counts_never_calibrate(self):
+        from scorecard_db.relationships import never_calibrate
+
+        assert never_calibrate(Metric.POVERTY_COUNT)
+        assert never_calibrate(Metric.PERSISTENT_POVERTY_RATE)
+
+
+class TestUKIngestIntoDB:
+    """One thin end-to-end check: a small adapter lands in SQLite with
+    baseline keys registered and lanes set (the big ones are covered by
+    staging tests; the runner's DB path is shared machinery)."""
+
+    def test_ifs_ingest_roundtrip(self, tmp_path):
+        from scorecard_db.baselines import register_baselines
+        from scorecard_db.ingest_uk_ifs import ingest
+
+        db_path = tmp_path / "uk.db"
+        stats = ingest(db_path)
+        assert stats["scores"] == 268
+        db = ScorecardDB(db_path)
+        register_baselines(db)
+        row = db.conn.execute(
+            "SELECT COUNT(*) n FROM external_scores"
+            " WHERE source='ifs' AND baseline_key != ?",
+            (BASELINE.baseline_key(),),
+        ).fetchone()
+        assert row["n"] == 108  # the steady-state-baseline block
+        label = db.conn.execute(
+            "SELECT label FROM baselines b JOIN external_scores s"
+            " ON s.baseline_key = b.baseline_key"
+            " WHERE s.source='ifs' AND b.label != 'current_law' LIMIT 1"
+        ).fetchone()
+        assert label["label"] == "ifs_2cl_fp_removal_rolled_out"
+        db.close()