From fd7d5515a3ec518f1ccdfeb428b426b7d8558545 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Sat, 22 Aug 2026 11:39:48 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 01/12] Start replacement scorecard lane --- PROGRESS.md | 87 +++++++++++++++++++------------------------------- _LANE-NOTES.md | 34 +++++++++++++++++++- 2 files changed, 65 insertions(+), 56 deletions(-) diff --git a/PROGRESS.md b/PROGRESS.md index c7d8d2d8..c4eea1c3 100644 --- a/PROGRESS.md +++ b/PROGRESS.md @@ -1,65 +1,42 @@ -# Progress: one US target surface +# Progress: replacement scorecard ## State -Surface unification and scale-identity enforcement are complete on -`one-target-surface`: every US entrypoint -now compiles one national + state + congressional-district target registry, -and the CLI/config switches that could delete CD or JCT target rows are gone. -Parity doctrine now protects that family as a red-line compile. Sparse and dense -artifacts may differ in record count, never target membership. +The `replacement-scorecard` lane is active at `2aa96795`, based on the +post-#741 `origin/main`. The task is to build one head-to-head scoring path for +the live US incumbent and the not-yet-built 25% bundle-mode candidate, score +the incumbent now, and leave the exact candidate command for the owner. + +The locked US-extra environment is synchronized. No pool build, scoring run, +push, gate change, threshold change, or band change has occurred. ## Done -- Read `CLAUDE.md`, the target-parity declaration, the fiscal compiler and its - never-controls doctrine, the current CD opt-in tests, and - [microcosm#449](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/449) / - [microcosm#569](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/569). +- Read `CLAUDE.md` and the GitNexus exploration skill. GitNexus repository + resources are not exposed in this session, so the code-flow audit will use + direct source and call-site inspection. - Attempted the required `uv sync --all-packages --extra us`. The managed - sandbox denied writes to the default uv cache, then its network restriction - prevented a clean-cache download of `pyvis`. A byte-identical-lock sibling - environment was cloned copy-on-write; tests use that complete environment - with this worktree's package sources first on `PYTHONPATH` because an offline - editable reinstall still requires unavailable build-isolation metadata. -- Attempted the GitNexus refactoring impact workflow. Local indexing completed, - but GitNexus could not register the index because the sandbox forbids writing - `~/.gitnexus/registry.json`; a direct source/call-site audit is the fallback. -- Confirmed the starting worktree was clean and no build or push was run. -- Ran the workspace suite for 1,137 seconds with no failure before interrupting - it inside the unrelated PUF-QRF stale-checkpoint subprocess regression; the - affected US target/compiler shard is the per-commit validation boundary, with - a complete workspace run reserved for the final tree. Ruff is green. -- Established a green 10-file affected-suite baseline covering target - compilation, parity, the release builder/scorers, CD vintage translation, - Ledger profiles, and the generated calibration contract (100% in 349.59s). -- Removed the congressional-district compilation option throughout the fiscal - compiler, builder, fiscal scorer, state-file scorer, ACS local tool, aging - diff, experiments, tests, docs, and generated contract. The canonical CD - crosswalk is now the default at each production entrypoint. -- Removed the diagnostic JCT target-deletion option and its release-gate bypass; - diagnostic tools now score the same registry as releases. -- Removed the parity generator's CD regime switch and regenerated the pinned - manifest to 32 compiled / 52 reviewed families. The generated calibration - contract declares all three geography layers and has no default-layer split. -- The 10-file affected suite reaches 100% with exit 0 after the runtime change; - Ruff, byte compilation, and `git diff --check` pass. -- Promoted the CD family into the parity anti-rot red-line set, pinned the - manifest's 32/52 header counts to parsed family counts, and asserted that its - compiled entry carries no exclusion fields or fence. -- Strengthened the fiscal invariant: the CD aggregate is present in the - compiled registry while the taxable-interest rebase still refuses it as a - national control. The standard 10-file affected suite reaches 100% with exit - 0 after the parity-doctrine change. -- Removed the compiler's per-run support-exclusion parameter, the release CLI - and loader that populated it, its provenance branch, both experiment callers, - and the obsolete sparse Build-J exclusion JSON. -- Added exact signature locks for the compiler, release builder, fiscal scorer, - and state scorer; legacy membership flags are parser-rejected. -- Added a CD-bearing registry identity test across nominal 57,240-record sparse - and 337,704-record dense artifacts. Specs and content-addressed registry - version are identical. The standard affected suite reaches 100% with exit 0. + sandbox denied writes to the default uv cache and has no network/DNS. A + sibling Microcosm worktree at the identical commit and with the identical + `uv.lock` supplied a copy-on-write environment; a narrow writable cache of + the locked build requirements then allowed + `uv sync --offline --all-packages --extra us` to rebuild and relink all five + editable workspace packages to this worktree. +- Confirmed the starting worktree was clean and the branch tracks + `origin/main` without any local changes. +- Historicized the inherited one-target-surface root journal before recording + current state. +- Established a green journal-step baseline: the scorer-signature suite + (`uv run python -m pytest -q + packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_state_files_scorer.py`) passes, and + `uv run ruff check .` passes. The complete workspace suite is continuing in + a separate read-only runner. ## Next -- Quantify the target-row delta and existing 25% timing evidence, run final - verification, then write `FINAL_REPORT.md`. +- Finish the complete workspace baseline (`uv run python -m pytest`). +- Trace the fiscal scorers, compiled registry, artifact loaders, terminal + battery, and packaged PolicyEngine-US dataset identity. +- Implement and test the common head-to-head scorer. +- Check the build queue, score the incumbent, record the owner command and + comparison doctrine, run final verification, and update `FINAL_REPORT.md`. diff --git a/_LANE-NOTES.md b/_LANE-NOTES.md index ab89acae..46c572c3 100644 --- a/_LANE-NOTES.md +++ b/_LANE-NOTES.md @@ -1,4 +1,36 @@ -# One-target-surface lane notes +# Replacement-scorecard lane notes + +## 2026-08-22 — lane start and environment + +- Branch: `replacement-scorecard`, starting at `2aa96795` (post-#741 + `origin/main`). +- Owner ruling: publication evidence is a same-yardstick incumbent-versus- + candidate comparison. This lane builds that yardstick and scores only the + incumbent because the 25% bundle-mode candidate does not yet exist. +- Standing constraints recorded: no pushes, no pool builds, no gate/threshold/ + band tuning, green suite per commit, scoring below 20 GiB RSS, and a build + queue check before scoring. +- Environment: the default-cache sync was denied by the managed sandbox, and a + task-local empty cache could not download through disabled DNS. The sibling + `microcosm-one-surface` checkout has the identical `uv.lock` (`895535...`) + and a complete environment. Its `.venv` was cloned copy-on-write, after + which a narrow writable cache of locked Hatch build requirements allowed + `uv sync --offline --all-packages --extra us` to rebuild and relink all five + Microcosm workspace packages to this worktree. +- The GitNexus exploration workflow was selected for the requested execution- + path audit, but this session exposes no GitNexus resources or query tools. + Repository-wide `rg`, symbol inspection, and focused tests are the fallback. +- The inherited one-target-surface notes below were accurate when written and + are historical after #741; they are not current replacement-lane state. +- Journal-step validation: `uv run python -m pytest -q + packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_state_files_scorer.py` passed (5/5), + and `uv run ruff check .` passed. A complete workspace baseline is still + running; the direct `python -m pytest` form avoids the cloned environment's + stale console-script shebang. + +--- + +# Historical: one-target-surface lane notes ## 2026-08-21 — baseline and doctrine From de5ca6aa1451a8747ef8274379ae618fd801ee65 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Sat, 22 Aug 2026 11:48:19 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 02/12] Document replacement yardstick audit --- PROGRESS.md | 31 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++-- _LANE-NOTES.md | 51 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 2 files changed, 80 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-) diff --git a/PROGRESS.md b/PROGRESS.md index c4eea1c3..8706d341 100644 --- a/PROGRESS.md +++ b/PROGRESS.md @@ -31,12 +31,39 @@ push, gate change, threshold change, or band change has occurred. packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_state_files_scorer.py`) passes, and `uv run ruff check .` passes. The complete workspace suite is continuing in a separate read-only runner. +- Audited the canonical scoring seam. The existing fiscal scorer already + normalizes a legacy PolicyEngine flat H5 and a Microcosm entity H5 before a + shared population-repair, materialization, weighting, and scoring path + (`tools/score_us_fiscal_targets.py:240-365,432-489`). The new scorer will + compile the registry once and fail if materialization or the constraint + matrix omits any row (`tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:4323-4347`; + `packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/matrix.py:286-355`). +- Pinned the loss yardstick to the production concept-budget weighting: square + root of target scale within amount/count basis, concept-group budget caps, + equal total budget across present bases, mean normalization, and the existing + 100% capped target-scaled loss + (`tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:5781-5814,6214-6290`; + `packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/solve.py:473-518`). +- Verified the eCPS incumbent bytes and identity. PolicyEngine.py 4.15.0's + bundled US manifest resolves + `policyengine/policyengine-us-data@9531fe1d.../enhanced_cps_2024.h5` with + SHA-256 `0a6b961a...`; Microcosm's frozen parity pin uses immutable revision + `21280dca...` for the same bytes + (`policyengine/data/release_manifests/us.json@4.15.0:12-27,37-42`; + `packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us/ecps_parity_reference.json:7-14`). +- Classified the terminal battery. Its 131 marginal comparisons plus one joint + comparison require ASEC/ACS support-channel and clone-role provenance + (`packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/stacked_spine.py:11366-11378,11523-11533,11577-11580`). + A finished pool's input-only H5 cannot replay them; the authenticated + companion manifest carries the sealed receipt + (`tools/build_us_multispine_pool.py:3533-3550,3766-3786`; + `packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/h5_io.py:348-430,672-811`). +- Compiled the superseding v9.4 Ledger feed (`b3c08356...`) without scoring: + the one surface has 32,842 specs and registry version `c4ac617743f2`. ## Next - Finish the complete workspace baseline (`uv run python -m pytest`). -- Trace the fiscal scorers, compiled registry, artifact loaders, terminal - battery, and packaged PolicyEngine-US dataset identity. - Implement and test the common head-to-head scorer. - Check the build queue, score the incumbent, record the owner command and comparison doctrine, run final verification, and update `FINAL_REPORT.md`. diff --git a/_LANE-NOTES.md b/_LANE-NOTES.md index 46c572c3..711e1c48 100644 --- a/_LANE-NOTES.md +++ b/_LANE-NOTES.md @@ -28,6 +28,57 @@ running; the direct `python -m pytest` form avoids the cloned environment's stale console-script shebang. +## 2026-08-22 — yardstick audit + +- One compiler surface: `compile_us_fiscal_target_registry` has no + artifact-membership switch + (`packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/fiscal_targets.py:933-1017`), + and the existing fiscal scorer's only divergent branch is loading before the + common repair/materialize/score sequence + (`tools/score_us_fiscal_targets.py:432-489`). +- Full-surface rule: the head-to-head must reject either + `target_compilation.dropped_target_names` or `CalibrationResult.skipped`; + both lower layers otherwise report and continue past an unmaterialized or + uncompileable row + (`tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:4323-4347`; + `packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/matrix.py:286-355`). +- Aggregate rule: use the production + `sqrt_value_concept_budget_weighted_mape_50_50_amount_count_target_scale_cap_100pct` + constants, with no family multipliers. Target-scale square roots are + normalized within amount/count basis, semantic concept groups receive one + concept budget, and present bases receive equal total budgets + (`tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:344-348,5781-5814,6214-6290`). + The aggregate is the weighted mean of capped target-scaled absolute errors + (`packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/solve.py:473-518`). +- Incumbent identity: PolicyEngine.py 4.15.0's bundled manifest names data + package 1.115.5, HF model repo `policyengine/policyengine-us-data`, immutable + resolver revision `9531fe1d096244fe7eb45d791d52ef61b8a2a0a5`, filename + `enhanced_cps_2024.h5`, and SHA-256 + `0a6b961ad363a421bde99f2c8e5d8f20370bcba45fd303050537a25bdd805b14` + (`policyengine/data/release_manifests/us.json@4.15.0:12-27,37-42`). + Microcosm's frozen parity reference pins revision `21280dca...` for the same + hash (`packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us/ecps_parity_reference.json:7-14`). + Both cache-resolved files independently hash to `0a6b961a...`; the scorecard + will retain both identities and call the former the package-resolved one. +- Terminal-battery scope: all 131 marginal comparisons and the joint + immigration comparison are by-origin-only. Each needs support-channel and + clone-role columns to build separate ASEC and ACS masks + (`packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/stacked_spine.py:11366-11378,11523-11533,11577-11580,11679-11739`). + The incumbent has neither field, so every battery comparison is + **inapplicable**, not failed or zero. A finished pool publishes an input-only + H5 while sealing terminal results into its manifest and diagnostics + (`tools/build_us_multispine_pool.py:3263-3334,3533-3550,3766-3786`); the + manifest loader validates the H5, diagnostics, digests, run identity, and + passing terminal alias before returning the frame + (`packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/h5_io.py:348-430,672-811`). +- Yardstick facts: the v9.4 feed at + `/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/_buildh-runtime/inputs/consumer_facts_buildn_v9_4.jsonl` + has SHA-256 `b3c0835631a446eb96aa84d86f3ee962d15ca356174c7114db52974f1cacc080`. + A read-only compile with the packaged current-vintage CD crosswalk, target + period 2024, no aging, and the standing scoring period waiver produced + 32,842 specs at registry version `c4ac617743f2`. No artifact was built or + scored during this compile. + --- # Historical: one-target-surface lane notes From 256165e2cb33bec9f11a31d157b339f8018d58bd Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Sat, 22 Aug 2026 17:48:09 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 03/12] Correct the incumbent identity: live policyengine.py 5.0.3 resolves buildp sparse The earlier audit read policyengine.py 4.15.0 (2026-06-10). PyPI latest is 5.0.3 (2026-08-21): its bundle manifest's US default dataset is populace_us_2024 = the buildp sparse artifact (57,240 households) on policyengine/populace-us, sha256 48b9d479..., certified for the same policyengine-us 1.764.6 this workspace locks. Battery re-classified on observed evidence (provenance columns present, zero acs-channel rows), and the CD-provenance legacy-waiver need recorded. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 --- PROGRESS.md | 98 +++++++++++++++++++++----------------------------- _LANE-NOTES.md | 73 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 2 files changed, 113 insertions(+), 58 deletions(-) diff --git a/PROGRESS.md b/PROGRESS.md index 8706d341..5b20b86e 100644 --- a/PROGRESS.md +++ b/PROGRESS.md @@ -2,68 +2,50 @@ ## State -The `replacement-scorecard` lane is active at `2aa96795`, based on the -post-#741 `origin/main`. The task is to build one head-to-head scoring path for -the live US incumbent and the not-yet-built 25% bundle-mode candidate, score -the incumbent now, and leave the exact candidate command for the owner. +The `replacement-scorecard` lane is active on top of `de5ca6aa` (post-#741 +`origin/main` plus two lane journal commits). The task: one head-to-head +scoring path for the live US incumbent and the not-yet-built 25% bundle-mode +candidate, score the incumbent now, and leave the owner the exact candidate +command. Three earlier attempts died (network loss / codex quota); their +salvage refs all reduce to one 1306-line scorer draft, which this session +verified mechanism-by-mechanism and is rewriting where its premises were +stale. -The locked US-extra environment is synchronized. No pool build, scoring run, -push, gate change, threshold change, or band change has occurred. +No pool build, push, gate change, threshold change, or band change has +occurred. `ps ax | grep build_us_multispine_pool` showed no live build before +any scoring step. ## Done -- Read `CLAUDE.md` and the GitNexus exploration skill. GitNexus repository - resources are not exposed in this session, so the code-flow audit will use - direct source and call-site inspection. -- Attempted the required `uv sync --all-packages --extra us`. The managed - sandbox denied writes to the default uv cache and has no network/DNS. A - sibling Microcosm worktree at the identical commit and with the identical - `uv.lock` supplied a copy-on-write environment; a narrow writable cache of - the locked build requirements then allowed - `uv sync --offline --all-packages --extra us` to rebuild and relink all five - editable workspace packages to this worktree. -- Confirmed the starting worktree was clean and the branch tracks - `origin/main` without any local changes. -- Historicized the inherited one-target-surface root journal before recording - current state. -- Established a green journal-step baseline: the scorer-signature suite - (`uv run python -m pytest -q - packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_state_files_scorer.py`) passes, and - `uv run ruff check .` passes. The complete workspace suite is continuing in - a separate read-only runner. -- Audited the canonical scoring seam. The existing fiscal scorer already - normalizes a legacy PolicyEngine flat H5 and a Microcosm entity H5 before a - shared population-repair, materialization, weighting, and scoring path - (`tools/score_us_fiscal_targets.py:240-365,432-489`). The new scorer will - compile the registry once and fail if materialization or the constraint - matrix omits any row (`tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:4323-4347`; - `packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/matrix.py:286-355`). -- Pinned the loss yardstick to the production concept-budget weighting: square - root of target scale within amount/count basis, concept-group budget caps, - equal total budget across present bases, mean normalization, and the existing - 100% capped target-scaled loss - (`tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:5781-5814,6214-6290`; - `packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/solve.py:473-518`). -- Verified the eCPS incumbent bytes and identity. PolicyEngine.py 4.15.0's - bundled US manifest resolves - `policyengine/policyengine-us-data@9531fe1d.../enhanced_cps_2024.h5` with - SHA-256 `0a6b961a...`; Microcosm's frozen parity pin uses immutable revision - `21280dca...` for the same bytes - (`policyengine/data/release_manifests/us.json@4.15.0:12-27,37-42`; - `packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us/ecps_parity_reference.json:7-14`). -- Classified the terminal battery. Its 131 marginal comparisons plus one joint - comparison require ASEC/ACS support-channel and clone-role provenance - (`packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/stacked_spine.py:11366-11378,11523-11533,11577-11580`). - A finished pool's input-only H5 cannot replay them; the authenticated - companion manifest carries the sealed receipt - (`tools/build_us_multispine_pool.py:3533-3550,3766-3786`; - `packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/h5_io.py:348-430,672-811`). -- Compiled the superseding v9.4 Ledger feed (`b3c08356...`) without scoring: - the one surface has 32,842 specs and registry version `c4ac617743f2`. +- `uv sync --all-packages --extra us` completed normally in this session + (earlier sandbox venv-cloning notes are historical). +- Verified every symbol the salvaged draft imports and every cited mechanism + against the code this session: compile surface (five inputs, no membership + flags), dropped/skipped detection, sqrt–concept-budget–50/50 loss weights, + capped weighted-MAPE aggregate, relative-error rule, attribution row keys, + battery registries (131 + 1 joint) and receipt keys, pool-manifest + authentication chain, `terminal_gates` manifest shape. +- **Corrected the incumbent identity** (see `_LANE-NOTES.md` "incumbent + identity corrected"): live policyengine.py is 5.0.3 (2026-08-21), whose + bundled manifest resolves the US default dataset to + `policyengine/populace-us` revision + `populace-us-2024-buildp-sparse-rmloss100-cae8640-20260728T011454Z`, + filename `populace_us_2024.h5`, SHA-256 `48b9d479...` — microcosm's own + buildp sparse artifact, not enhanced_cps_2024 (that was 4.15.0-era). Local + cached bytes hash-verified. +- Re-classified the terminal battery for the real incumbent: provenance + columns present, but zero `acs`-channel rows (channels: asec 22,200 @ clone + 0, puf_tax_detail 35,040 @ clone 1), so ASEC-vs-ACS comparisons are + inapplicable on observed evidence. +- Established that the incumbent H5 predates CD vintage provenance attrs, so + the scorer needs a recorded legacy waiver path for entity H5s missing the + attrs (strict when present). ## Next -- Finish the complete workspace baseline (`uv run python -m pytest`). -- Implement and test the common head-to-head scorer. -- Check the build queue, score the incumbent, record the owner command and - comparison doctrine, run final verification, and update `FINAL_REPORT.md`. +- Rewrite `tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py` accordingly; add the + contract/determinism/fixture tests; ruff + affected suites green; commit. +- Re-check the build queue, run the incumbent scoring (RSS < 20 GiB), commit + `experiments/replacement_scorecard/incumbent_48b9d479.{json,md}`. +- Record the owner's candidate command and the comparison doctrine in + `_LANE-NOTES.md`; run the full workspace suite; update `FINAL_REPORT.md`. diff --git a/_LANE-NOTES.md b/_LANE-NOTES.md index 711e1c48..1ed1be30 100644 --- a/_LANE-NOTES.md +++ b/_LANE-NOTES.md @@ -60,6 +60,10 @@ hash (`packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us/ecps_parity_reference.json:7-14`). Both cache-resolved files independently hash to `0a6b961a...`; the scorecard will retain both identities and call the former the package-resolved one. + **[Superseded 2026-08-22, later session: 4.15.0 was tagged 2026-06-10 and is + not the live package. See "incumbent identity corrected" below — the live + policyengine.py 5.0.3 default US dataset is the buildp sparse artifact, not + enhanced_cps_2024.]** - Terminal-battery scope: all 131 marginal comparisons and the joint immigration comparison are by-origin-only. Each needs support-channel and clone-role columns to build separate ASEC and ACS masks @@ -71,6 +75,11 @@ manifest loader validates the H5, diagnostics, digests, run identity, and passing terminal alias before returning the frame (`packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/h5_io.py:348-430,672-811`). + **[Partially superseded 2026-08-22, later session: the by-origin-only + classification and the pool-manifest receipt path stand, but the "incumbent + has neither field" premise described the eCPS. The actual live incumbent + (buildp sparse) carries both provenance columns; what it lacks is any + ACS-origin row — see "incumbent identity corrected" below.]** - Yardstick facts: the v9.4 feed at `/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/_buildh-runtime/inputs/consumer_facts_buildn_v9_4.jsonl` has SHA-256 `b3c0835631a446eb96aa84d86f3ee962d15ca356174c7114db52974f1cacc080`. @@ -79,6 +88,70 @@ 32,842 specs at registry version `c4ac617743f2`. No artifact was built or scored during this compile. +## 2026-08-22 — incumbent identity corrected (fresh session, post-salvage) + +- Environment: this session's `uv sync --all-packages --extra us` completed + normally (network available; the earlier codex-sandbox venv cloning is + historical). +- **The live policyengine.py US dataset is the microcosm buildp sparse + artifact, not enhanced_cps_2024.** PyPI's latest `policyengine` is 5.0.3 + (tagged 2026-08-21; 4.15.0, the version the earlier audit read, was tagged + 2026-06-10). The 5.x bundle replaced the per-country release manifests: + `get_release_manifest` reads the bundled + `src/policyengine/data/bundle/manifest.json`, and + `resolve_managed_dataset_reference(country, dataset=None)` returns + `manifest.default_dataset_uri` + (`policyengine.py@5.0.3 src/policyengine/provenance/manifest.py:301-320,540-561`); + `default_dataset_uri` returns the certified artifact URI when + `certified_data_artifact.dataset == default_dataset` + (`.../provenance/manifest.py:181-187`), and dataset overlays are additive + only — an overlay that shadows the default raises + (`.../provenance/manifest.py:270-299`). +- The 5.0.3 bundle's US entry: `default_dataset: populace_us_2024`, + `data_producer: populace`, build id + `populace-us-2024-buildp-sparse-rmloss100-cae8640-20260728T011454Z`, + HF repo `policyengine/populace-us` (repo_type `dataset`), revision equal to + the build id, filename `populace_us_2024.h5`, SHA-256 + `48b9d479fb4fd1c3537f9383ce4697d130b6f618658409d74f6233c43b994c7e`, + certified for policyengine-us 1.764.6 — the same engine version this + workspace's `uv.lock` pins + (`policyengine.py@5.0.3 src/policyengine/data/bundle/manifest.json` + `data_releases.us.{default_dataset,certified_data_artifact,data_package,model_package}`). +- Local bytes verified: the HF cache ref for that revision points at commit + `26dcad66867687f15735dc4926523e3741920836`, whose snapshot + `populace_us_2024.h5` (462,915,783 bytes) hashes to `48b9d479...` exactly. +- Observed incumbent shape (read from those bytes this session): entity-table + layout (six US entities + `_time_period` 2024), 57,240 households, all + household weights positive; provenance columns present + (`household_support_channel`, `household_support_clone_index`, person + equivalents); channel counts `asec` 22,200 (clone 0) and `puf_tax_detail` + 35,040 (clone 1); **zero `acs`-channel rows**. The by-origin battery + compares `asec` vs `acs` channels + (`packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/stacked_spine.py:11577-11580,11695-11703`; + channel constants `support_provenance.py:31` and `stacked_spine.py:263`), + so every comparison is **inapplicable on observed evidence** — the + incumbent predates the ACS stack and has no ACS origin to compare, which + is a different (and observed) reason than the eCPS "no provenance columns" + premise. +- CD provenance: the buildp H5 root attrs are PyTables boilerplate only — it + predates the CD vintage crosswalk attributes, so + `_assert_cd_vintage_support_matches` would fail on the attr comparison + (`tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:2519-2567,2570-2597`). The + head-to-head scorer probes the attrs: strict when present, and otherwise + records an explicit legacy waiver receipt while still requiring the + household `congressional_district_geoid` lookup column to exist with + positive values (observed present on the incumbent). +- Salvage adoption: the 1306-line sol draft was adopted after verifying every + imported symbol and cited mechanism against the code this session. Rewrites + beyond the identity block: entity H5s load through the canonical scorer's + `release._load_frame` seam (`tools/score_us_fiscal_targets.py:436`, + `tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:2454-2471`), the + dropped-target check now runs before scoring (clear failure instead of a + loss-weight shape error), the battery inapplicability receipt is computed + from observed origin-channel counts instead of asserted, and the Markdown + scorecard renders rollups plus worst rows with the complete per-target + table living in the JSON twin. + --- # Historical: one-target-surface lane notes From 90fe2364eb64fb9c7bce2833998ed88928c4e149 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Sat, 22 Aug 2026 20:06:51 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 04/12] Add the replacement head-to-head scorer: one yardstick for incumbent and candidate The owner's publish bar for the next US artifact is a same-yardstick head-to-head against the live incumbent, decided on evidence. This adds that yardstick: tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py compiles the single post-#741 fiscal target registry once, scores each artifact through the canonical repair/materialize/score path with the production sqrt-concept-budget 50/50 loss basis, refuses dropped or skipped targets, pins an identical scored-column contract across sides, and reports the terminal by-origin battery from an authenticated pool manifest receipt or as observed inapplicability (never synthesized). Entity H5s that predate the CD vintage provenance attrs get one recorded legacy waiver; candidate pools stay provenance-strict. Tests pin the no-membership-switch signature, the battery contract against the production registries (131 + 1 joint over person/tax_unit/spm_unit), observed-not-asserted inapplicability, loud dropped-target failure, byte-deterministic output, and the live-incumbent identity annotation (policyengine.py 5.0.3 -> policyengine/populace-us buildp sparse, sha256 48b9d479). Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 --- PROGRESS.md | 64 +- _LANE-NOTES.md | 26 + .../test_us_release_head_to_head_scorer.py | 448 +++++ tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py | 1592 +++++++++++++++++ 4 files changed, 2098 insertions(+), 32 deletions(-) create mode 100644 packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_release_head_to_head_scorer.py create mode 100644 tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py diff --git a/PROGRESS.md b/PROGRESS.md index 5b20b86e..c5a1a686 100644 --- a/PROGRESS.md +++ b/PROGRESS.md @@ -2,50 +2,50 @@ ## State -The `replacement-scorecard` lane is active on top of `de5ca6aa` (post-#741 -`origin/main` plus two lane journal commits). The task: one head-to-head +The `replacement-scorecard` lane is active. The task: one head-to-head scoring path for the live US incumbent and the not-yet-built 25% bundle-mode candidate, score the incumbent now, and leave the owner the exact candidate -command. Three earlier attempts died (network loss / codex quota); their -salvage refs all reduce to one 1306-line scorer draft, which this session -verified mechanism-by-mechanism and is rewriting where its premises were -stale. +command. The scorer (`tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py`) and its test +file are committed with green affected suites; the incumbent scoring run is +the current step. No pool build, push, gate change, threshold change, or band change has -occurred. `ps ax | grep build_us_multispine_pool` showed no live build before -any scoring step. +occurred. `ps ax | grep build_us_multispine_pool` is checked before every +scoring step. ## Done -- `uv sync --all-packages --extra us` completed normally in this session - (earlier sandbox venv-cloning notes are historical). +- `uv sync --all-packages --extra us` complete; environment normal. - Verified every symbol the salvaged draft imports and every cited mechanism - against the code this session: compile surface (five inputs, no membership - flags), dropped/skipped detection, sqrt–concept-budget–50/50 loss weights, - capped weighted-MAPE aggregate, relative-error rule, attribution row keys, - battery registries (131 + 1 joint) and receipt keys, pool-manifest - authentication chain, `terminal_gates` manifest shape. -- **Corrected the incumbent identity** (see `_LANE-NOTES.md` "incumbent - identity corrected"): live policyengine.py is 5.0.3 (2026-08-21), whose - bundled manifest resolves the US default dataset to - `policyengine/populace-us` revision + against the code: compile surface (five inputs, no membership flags), + dropped/skipped detection, sqrt–concept-budget–50/50 loss weights, capped + weighted-MAPE aggregate, relative-error rule, attribution row keys, battery + registries (131 + 1 joint) and receipt keys, pool-manifest authentication + chain, `terminal_gates` manifest shape. +- **Corrected the incumbent identity** (see `_LANE-NOTES.md`): live + policyengine.py is 5.0.3 (2026-08-21), whose bundled manifest resolves the + US default dataset to `policyengine/populace-us` revision `populace-us-2024-buildp-sparse-rmloss100-cae8640-20260728T011454Z`, filename `populace_us_2024.h5`, SHA-256 `48b9d479...` — microcosm's own - buildp sparse artifact, not enhanced_cps_2024 (that was 4.15.0-era). Local - cached bytes hash-verified. -- Re-classified the terminal battery for the real incumbent: provenance - columns present, but zero `acs`-channel rows (channels: asec 22,200 @ clone - 0, puf_tax_detail 35,040 @ clone 1), so ASEC-vs-ACS comparisons are - inapplicable on observed evidence. -- Established that the incumbent H5 predates CD vintage provenance attrs, so - the scorer needs a recorded legacy waiver path for entity H5s missing the - attrs (strict when present). + buildp sparse artifact, not enhanced_cps_2024 (4.15.0-era). Cached bytes + hash-verified. +- Probed the real incumbent bytes through the scorer's own probe path: + entity-tables layout, no artifact metadata (caught), CD legacy-waiver path + (attrs null, 436 positive unique CD geoids), calibrated weights, provenance + columns present on all three battery entities (person/tax_unit/spm_unit), + **zero `acs` rows anywhere** → battery inapplicable with the observed + empty-ACS-side reason. +- `tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py` + 7 contract/determinism/fixture + tests committed; head-to-head, state-files scorer, refresh-builder, + pool-h5-io, fiscal-targets, release-target-parity files green (428 tests); + ruff clean. `test_us_stacked_spine.py` runs long in the background as part + of full-suite validation (no package code was touched by this lane). ## Next -- Rewrite `tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py` accordingly; add the - contract/determinism/fixture tests; ruff + affected suites green; commit. -- Re-check the build queue, run the incumbent scoring (RSS < 20 GiB), commit +- Check the build queue, then run the incumbent scoring (RSS < 20 GiB) with a + persistent `--target-materialization-cache-dir` so repeated bounded + invocations resume the 11 JCT reform vectors; commit `experiments/replacement_scorecard/incumbent_48b9d479.{json,md}`. - Record the owner's candidate command and the comparison doctrine in - `_LANE-NOTES.md`; run the full workspace suite; update `FINAL_REPORT.md`. + `_LANE-NOTES.md`; finish full workspace suite; update `FINAL_REPORT.md`. diff --git a/_LANE-NOTES.md b/_LANE-NOTES.md index 1ed1be30..8d569341 100644 --- a/_LANE-NOTES.md +++ b/_LANE-NOTES.md @@ -152,6 +152,32 @@ scorecard renders rollups plus worst rows with the complete per-target table living in the JSON twin. +## 2026-08-22 — scorer landed; incumbent probe on real bytes (resumed session) + +- Battery entities are `person`/`tax_unit`/`spm_unit` (114/9/8 single-column + comparisons plus the joint person immigration comparison) — household is + not a battery entity + (`packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/stacked_spine.py:3011-3025`). + The test fixture originally put provenance columns on household+person and + its two battery tests failed; the fixture now provisions channel/clone + columns on exactly the battery entities. The scorer needed no change. +- Real-bytes probe of the incumbent (the scorer's own probe path run against + the cached `populace_us_2024.h5`, sha256 `48b9d479...`): layout + `entity_tables`; `read_nullable_us_h5_metadata` raises "no artifact + metadata" (caught → not a naked pool); CD vintage attrs both null with a + usable `household.congressional_district_geoid` lookup (57,240 rows, 436 + positive unique geoids → the recorded legacy waiver path); frame loads as + 166,321 persons / 57,240 households / 79,729 tax units / 59,900 spm units + with calibrated household weights. All three battery entities carry + provenance columns; per-entity channel counts: person asec 66,001 + + puf_tax_detail 100,320; tax_unit asec 30,974 + 48,755; spm_unit asec + 23,286 + 36,614; **zero `acs` rows on every entity** → the battery payload + reports `inapplicable` with the observed empty-ACS-side reason. This + verifies the earlier journal claim and extends it to tax_unit/spm_unit. +- Suite state at commit: head-to-head tests 7/7; state-files scorer, + refresh-builder, pool-h5-io, fiscal-targets, and release-target-parity + files all green (428 tests); ruff check + format clean. + --- # Historical: one-target-surface lane notes diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_release_head_to_head_scorer.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_release_head_to_head_scorer.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..d9b444ef --- /dev/null +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_release_head_to_head_scorer.py @@ -0,0 +1,448 @@ +"""Contract tests for the replacement head-to-head scorer. + +The scorer is one common path for incumbent and candidate; these tests pin +the pieces that make the head-to-head honest without running the heavy +microsim materialization: the signature has no target-membership switches, +the scored-column contract cannot go silently missing on either side, the +terminal-battery receipt is observed rather than asserted, and the fixture +end-to-end run is deterministic byte-for-byte. +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import importlib.util +import inspect +import sys +from pathlib import Path +from types import SimpleNamespace + +import numpy as np +import pandas as pd +import pytest + +from microcosm.calibrate import TargetRegistry +from microcosm.calibrate.registry import TargetSpec +from microcosm.frame import US_SCHEMA, Frame, WeightKind, Weights + + +def _load_head_to_head_module(): + root = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[3] + tools_path = str(root / "tools") + if tools_path not in sys.path: + sys.path.insert(0, tools_path) + name = "score_us_release_head_to_head" + if name in sys.modules: + return sys.modules[name] + path = root / "tools" / f"{name}.py" + spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location(name, path) + module = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec) + assert spec.loader is not None + sys.modules[name] = module + spec.loader.exec_module(module) + return module + + +def _tiny_frame( + *, + measure_values: tuple[float, float], + channels: tuple[str, str] | None = ("asec", "asec"), +) -> Frame: + household = { + "household_id": np.asarray([1, 2], dtype="int64"), + "state_fips": np.asarray([6, 36], dtype="int64"), + "m_income": np.asarray(measure_values, dtype="float64"), + "n_flagged": np.asarray([1.0, 0.0], dtype="float64"), + } + person = { + "person_id": np.asarray([1, 2], dtype="int64"), + "person_household_id": np.asarray([1, 2], dtype="int64"), + "person_tax_unit_id": np.asarray([1, 2], dtype="int64"), + "person_spm_unit_id": np.asarray([1, 2], dtype="int64"), + "person_family_id": np.asarray([1, 2], dtype="int64"), + "person_marital_unit_id": np.asarray([1, 2], dtype="int64"), + } + tax_unit = {"tax_unit_id": np.asarray([1, 2], dtype="int64")} + spm_unit = {"spm_unit_id": np.asarray([1, 2], dtype="int64")} + if channels is not None: + # The by-origin battery scopes its masks on the battery entities + # (person, tax_unit, spm_unit), matching the observed live incumbent. + for prefix, table in ( + ("person", person), + ("tax_unit", tax_unit), + ("spm_unit", spm_unit), + ): + table[f"{prefix}_support_channel"] = np.asarray(channels, dtype=object) + table[f"{prefix}_support_clone_index"] = np.asarray([0, 0], dtype="int64") + tables = { + "person": pd.DataFrame(person), + "household": pd.DataFrame(household), + "tax_unit": pd.DataFrame(tax_unit), + "spm_unit": pd.DataFrame(spm_unit), + "family": pd.DataFrame({"family_id": np.asarray([1, 2], dtype="int64")}), + "marital_unit": pd.DataFrame( + {"marital_unit_id": np.asarray([1, 2], dtype="int64")} + ), + } + return Frame( + tables, + US_SCHEMA, + { + "household": Weights( + np.asarray([10.0, 20.0], dtype="float64"), + WeightKind.CALIBRATED, + ) + }, + ) + + +def _tiny_registry() -> TargetRegistry: + return TargetRegistry( + [ + TargetSpec( + name="tiny_income_total", + entity="household", + value=500.0, + measure="m_income", + period=2024, + source="fixture", + family="fixture_family", + ), + TargetSpec( + name="tiny_flagged_count", + entity="household", + value=12.0, + measure="n_flagged", + period=2024, + source="fixture", + family="fixture_family", + metadata={"measure_mode": "indicator_sum"}, + ), + ], + country="us", + ) + + +def _fixture_yardstick(module) -> object: + registry = _tiny_registry() + release = module.release + loss_weights = release._fiscal_target_loss_weights(registry) + loss_basis = release._fiscal_target_loss_basis(registry, loss_weights) + return module.FiscalYardstick( + registry=registry, + loss_weights=loss_weights, + loss_basis=loss_basis, + identity={ + "country": "us", + "version": registry.version, + "target_count": len(registry.specs), + "ledger_facts": {"filename": "fixture.jsonl", "sha256": "0" * 64}, + "congressional_district_vintage_crosswalk": { + "filename": "fixture.parquet", + "sha256": "1" * 64, + }, + "target_period": 2024, + "age_targets": False, + "allow_unaged_dollar_targets": True, + "target_profile_coverage": {"passed": True, "failures": []}, + "environment": { + "microcosm_commit": "fixture", + "policyengine_us_version": "fixture", + }, + }, + ) + + +def _fixture_artifact(module, *, sha256: str, measure_values: tuple[float, float]): + return module.LoadedArtifact( + frame=_tiny_frame(measure_values=measure_values), + identity={ + "kind": "h5", + "filename": f"{sha256[:8]}.h5", + "sha256": sha256, + "size_bytes": 123, + }, + loader={"kind": "microcosm_entity_h5", "weight_kind": "calibrated"}, + h5_path=Path(f"/nonexistent/{sha256[:8]}.h5"), + ) + + +def _patch_release_seams(module, monkeypatch) -> None: + """Stub the four heavy release seams; everything downstream runs real.""" + + release = module.release + + def _identity_repair(frame): + return frame, {"mode": "fixture_noop"} + + def _stub_gate(*args, **kwargs): + return SimpleNamespace(passed=True, failures=(), details={}) + + def _stub_materialize(frame, specs, **kwargs): + registry = TargetRegistry(list(specs), country="us") + return ( + frame, + registry, + { + "declared_targets": len(specs), + "compiled_candidate_targets": len(specs), + "dropped_target_names": [], + }, + ) + + def _stub_cd_probe(h5_path): + return { + module.CONGRESSIONAL_DISTRICT_VINTAGE_CROSSWALK_SHA256_ATTR: None, + module.CONGRESSIONAL_DISTRICT_VINTAGE_TARGET_ATTR: None, + "household_congressional_district_geoid": { + "exists": True, + "positive_unique_count": 2, + }, + } + + monkeypatch.setattr(release, "_with_base_population_mass_repair", _identity_repair) + monkeypatch.setattr(release, "_base_population_scale_gate", _stub_gate) + monkeypatch.setattr(release, "_health_input_signal_gate", _stub_gate) + monkeypatch.setattr(release, "_materialize_target_frame", _stub_materialize) + monkeypatch.setattr(release, "_read_cd_vintage_support_provenance", _stub_cd_probe) + + +def test_head_to_head_signature_has_no_target_membership_switches() -> None: + module = _load_head_to_head_module() + + assert set(inspect.signature(module.score_head_to_head).parameters) == { + "incumbent", + "candidate", + "ledger_facts", + "age_targets", + "allow_unaged_dollar_targets", + "congressional_district_vintage_crosswalk", + "maximum_microsim_batch_size", + "target_materialization_cache_dir", + "candidate_manifest_sha256", + } + + +def test_canonical_battery_contract_matches_production_registries() -> None: + module = _load_head_to_head_module() + + contract = module._canonical_battery_contract() + + single = len(module.CANONICAL_ORIGIN_BATTERY_METRIC_REGISTRY) + joint = len(module.CANONICAL_ORIGIN_BATTERY_JOINT_METRIC_REGISTRY) + assert single == 131 + assert joint == 1 + assert len(contract) == single + joint + assert ( + "person/source_operator_immigration/" + "joint[ssn_card_type,immigration_status_str][clone_0]" in contract + ) + for row in contract.values(): + assert row["metric_legs"] == list(module._metric_legs(row["metric"])) + + +def test_observed_origin_battery_is_evidence_not_assertion() -> None: + module = _load_head_to_head_module() + + no_columns = module._battery_payload_from_observed_origins( + _tiny_frame(measure_values=(1.0, 2.0), channels=None) + ) + asec_only = module._battery_payload_from_observed_origins( + _tiny_frame(measure_values=(1.0, 2.0), channels=("asec", "asec")) + ) + both_origins = module._battery_payload_from_observed_origins( + _tiny_frame(measure_values=(1.0, 2.0), channels=("asec", "acs")) + ) + + assert no_columns["status"] == "inapplicable" + assert "no support-channel" in no_columns["reason"] + assert asec_only["status"] == "inapplicable" + assert "no ACS-stacked origin rows" in asec_only["reason"] + assert asec_only["observed_origins"]["total_acs_rows"] == 0 + assert asec_only["observed_origins"]["entities"]["person"]["asec_rows"] == 2 + assert both_origins["status"] == "inapplicable" + assert "authenticated pool manifest" in both_origins["reason"] + for payload in (no_columns, asec_only, both_origins): + assert payload["comparison_count"] == 132 + assert all( + row["status"] == "inapplicable" for row in payload["comparisons"].values() + ) + + +def test_scored_column_contract_refuses_silently_missing_columns() -> None: + module = _load_head_to_head_module() + registry = _tiny_registry() + complete = _tiny_frame(measure_values=(1.0, 2.0)) + broken_tables = { + entity: complete.table(entity).copy() for entity in complete.entities + } + broken_tables["household"] = broken_tables["household"].drop(columns=["n_flagged"]) + broken = Frame( + broken_tables, + US_SCHEMA, + {"household": complete.weights_for("household")}, + ) + + contract = module.scored_column_contract( + complete, registry, artifact_name="incumbent" + ) + + assert ("household", "m_income", "measure") in contract + assert ("household", "n_flagged", "measure") in contract + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="lacks scored column"): + module.scored_column_contract(broken, registry, artifact_name="candidate") + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="differs from incumbent"): + module._assert_identical_scored_contracts( + {"incumbent": contract, "candidate": contract[:-1]} + ) + + +def test_fixture_end_to_end_is_deterministic_and_shares_one_path( + monkeypatch, tmp_path +) -> None: + module = _load_head_to_head_module() + _patch_release_seams(module, monkeypatch) + yardstick = _fixture_yardstick(module) + incumbent = _fixture_artifact( + module, sha256="a" * 64, measure_values=(100.0, 300.0) + ) + candidate = _fixture_artifact( + module, sha256="b" * 64, measure_values=(200.0, 290.0) + ) + + def _score_both() -> dict[str, object]: + artifacts: dict[str, dict[str, object]] = {} + contracts: dict[str, tuple] = {} + for name, artifact in (("incumbent", incumbent), ("candidate", candidate)): + payload, contract = module.score_loaded_artifact( + artifact=artifact, + artifact_name=name, + yardstick=yardstick, + maximum_microsim_batch_size=None, + target_materialization_cache_dir=None, + ) + artifacts[name] = payload + contracts[name] = contract + module._assert_identical_scored_contracts(contracts) + return { + "schema_version": module.SCHEMA_VERSION, + "yardstick": { + "fiscal_registry": dict(yardstick.identity), + "fiscal_aggregate": { + "name": module.release.US_FISCAL_TARGET_LOSS_WEIGHTING, + "target_loss_cap": module.release.US_FISCAL_TARGET_LOSS_CAP, + "loss_basis": dict(yardstick.loss_basis), + "weighting_rule": "fixture", + "family_multipliers": None, + "code_citations": [], + }, + "relative_error": {"rule": "fixture", "code_citation": "fixture"}, + "terminal_battery": { + "by_origin_only": True, + "single_column_comparison_count": 131, + "joint_comparison_count": 1, + "comparison_count": 132, + "metric_leg_count": 0, + "code_citations": [], + }, + "code_citations": dict(module._CODE_CITATIONS), + }, + "artifacts": { + "incumbent": artifacts["incumbent"], + "candidate": artifacts["candidate"], + }, + "comparison": module._comparison_payload( + artifacts["incumbent"], artifacts["candidate"] + ), + } + + payload_one = _score_both() + payload_two = _score_both() + + assert payload_one == payload_two + + incumbent_fiscal = payload_one["artifacts"]["incumbent"]["fiscal"] + rows = incumbent_fiscal["targets"] + assert [row["name"] for row in rows] == [ + "tiny_income_total", + "tiny_flagged_count", + ] + # Hand-computed: estimates are A @ w with w = (10, 20). + # m_income: 100*10 + 300*20 = 7000 vs target 500 -> relative error 13.0, + # capped scaled error 1.0. n_flagged: 1*10 + 0*20 = 10 vs target 12 + # -> relative error -1/6. + assert rows[0]["actual"] == pytest.approx(7000.0) + assert rows[0]["relative_error"] == pytest.approx(13.0) + assert rows[0]["capped_scaled_absolute_error"] == pytest.approx(1.0) + assert rows[1]["actual"] == pytest.approx(10.0) + assert rows[1]["relative_error"] == pytest.approx(-2.0 / 12.0) + contribution_sum = sum(row["weighted_loss_contribution"] for row in rows) + assert contribution_sum == pytest.approx(incumbent_fiscal["weighted_loss"]) + + comparison = payload_one["comparison"] + counts = comparison["per_target_absolute_relative_error"] + # Candidate: m_income actual 200*10 + 290*20 = 7800 (worse than 7000); + # n_flagged identical inputs -> equal. + assert counts["incumbent_lower_count"] == 1 + assert counts["equal_count"] == 1 + assert counts["candidate_lower_count"] == 0 + assert comparison["terminal_battery"]["head_to_head_comparable"] is False + assert comparison["no_threshold_applied"] is True + + first = module.write_scorecard(payload_one, tmp_path / "one" / "scorecard") + second = module.write_scorecard(payload_two, tmp_path / "two" / "scorecard") + for path_one, path_two in zip(first, second, strict=True): + assert path_one.read_bytes() == path_two.read_bytes() + markdown = first[1].read_text() + assert "US release replacement scorecard" in markdown + assert "no ACS-stacked origin rows" in markdown + + +def test_dropped_targets_fail_loudly_before_scoring(monkeypatch) -> None: + module = _load_head_to_head_module() + _patch_release_seams(module, monkeypatch) + + def _dropping_materialize(frame, specs, **kwargs): + kept = list(specs)[:-1] + return ( + frame, + TargetRegistry(kept, country="us"), + { + "declared_targets": len(specs), + "compiled_candidate_targets": len(kept), + "dropped_target_names": [list(specs)[-1].name], + }, + ) + + monkeypatch.setattr( + module.release, "_materialize_target_frame", _dropping_materialize + ) + + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="did not materialize the full fiscal"): + module.score_loaded_artifact( + artifact=_fixture_artifact( + module, sha256="c" * 64, measure_values=(1.0, 2.0) + ), + artifact_name="incumbent", + yardstick=_fixture_yardstick(module), + maximum_microsim_batch_size=None, + target_materialization_cache_dir=None, + ) + + +def test_live_incumbent_identity_annotation() -> None: + module = _load_head_to_head_module() + + pin = module._POLICYENGINE_LIVE_US_INCUMBENT + matched = module._live_incumbent_identity_if_matched(pin["sha256"]) + unmatched = module._live_incumbent_identity_if_matched("f" * 64) + + assert unmatched is None + assert matched is not None + resolved = matched["policyengine_package_resolved"] + assert resolved["repo_id"] == "policyengine/populace-us" + assert resolved["filename"] == "populace_us_2024.h5" + assert resolved["default_dataset"] == "populace_us_2024" + assert ( + resolved["revision"] + == "populace-us-2024-buildp-sparse-rmloss100-cae8640-20260728T011454Z" + ) diff --git a/tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py b/tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..380e9897 --- /dev/null +++ b/tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py @@ -0,0 +1,1592 @@ +"""Score US incumbent and candidate artifacts on one replacement yardstick. + +The owner's publish bar for the next US artifact is a head-to-head: the live +artifact versus the candidate on the SAME yardstick, flipped on evidence. +This tool is that yardstick. It has two parts: + +* every row of one compiled fiscal target registry, evaluated under each + artifact's own shipped weights with production's concept-budgeted + amount/count loss; and +* the terminal by-origin battery: reported from an authenticated pool + manifest receipt when the artifact is a pool, and reported as observed + inapplicability (never synthesized, never faked) when the artifact carries + no evaluable ASEC-vs-ACS surface. + +Artifacts differ only at the loading boundary. Both normalized frames pass +through the same population repair, target materialization, constraint +matrix, scoring, loss attribution, contract checks, and rendering path. +Scoring is sequential and refuses a process peak at or above 20 GiB RSS. + +No gate, threshold, tolerance, or band is applied to the comparison: the +output is evidence for the owner's flip decision, not a verdict. +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import argparse +import gc +import hashlib +import json +import math +import resource +import sys +from collections.abc import Mapping, Sequence +from dataclasses import dataclass +from pathlib import Path + +import build_us_fiscal_refresh_release as release +import h5py +import numpy as np +import score_us_fiscal_targets as fiscal_scorer + +from microcosm.build.us_runtime.congressional_district_vintage import ( + CONGRESSIONAL_DISTRICT_VINTAGE_CROSSWALK_SHA256_ATTR, + CONGRESSIONAL_DISTRICT_VINTAGE_TARGET_ATTR, +) +from microcosm.build.us_runtime.h5_io import ( + US_MULTISPINE_POOL_H5_ARTIFACT_KIND, + AuthenticatedPoolH5, + load_simulation_ready_us_multispine_pool, + read_nullable_us_h5_metadata, +) +from microcosm.build.us_runtime.stacked_spine import ( + ACS_STACKED_SUPPORT_CHANNEL, + CANONICAL_ORIGIN_BATTERY_JOINT_METRIC_REGISTRY, + CANONICAL_ORIGIN_BATTERY_METRIC_REGISTRY, +) +from microcosm.build.us_runtime.support_provenance import ( + BASE_ASEC_SUPPORT_CHANNEL, + support_channel_column, + support_clone_index_column, +) +from microcosm.calibrate import TargetRegistry, score_targets +from microcosm.calibrate._target_loss_attribution import ( + assemble_target_loss_attribution, +) +from microcosm.frame import US_SCHEMA, Frame + +SCHEMA_VERSION = 2 +MAX_RSS_BYTES = 20 * 1024**3 +MARKDOWN_WORST_TARGET_ROWS = 50 + +# The package resolver authority for the live US incumbent, read from +# policyengine.py 5.0.3 (PyPI latest, tagged 2026-08-21) this lane session: +# the bundled manifest's US entry certifies populace_us_2024 as the default +# dataset, resolve_managed_dataset_reference(country, dataset=None) returns +# manifest.default_dataset_uri, and dataset overlays are additive-only so +# they can never shadow the default. +# policyengine.py@5.0.3 src/policyengine/data/bundle/manifest.json +# data_releases.us.{default_dataset,certified_data_artifact,data_package} +# policyengine.py@5.0.3 src/policyengine/provenance/manifest.py:181-187 +# (default_dataset_uri), :270-299 (_apply_dataset_overlays no-shadow), +# :301-320 (get_release_manifest), :540-561 +# (resolve_managed_dataset_reference default path) +_POLICYENGINE_LIVE_US_INCUMBENT = { + "policyengine_version": "5.0.3", + "bundle_id": "us-5.0.3", + "data_producer": "populace", + "default_dataset": "populace_us_2024", + "build_id": "populace-us-2024-buildp-sparse-rmloss100-cae8640-20260728T011454Z", + "repo_id": "policyengine/populace-us", + "repo_type": "dataset", + "revision": "populace-us-2024-buildp-sparse-rmloss100-cae8640-20260728T011454Z", + "filename": "populace_us_2024.h5", + "sha256": "48b9d479fb4fd1c3537f9383ce4697d130b6f618658409d74f6233c43b994c7e", + "certified_for_model_version": "1.764.6", +} + +_CODE_CITATIONS = { + "single_registry_surface": ( + "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/" + "fiscal_targets.py:933-1017" + ), + "canonical_scorer_seam": "tools/score_us_fiscal_targets.py:383-528", + "entity_h5_loader": "tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:2454-2471", + "legacy_flat_loader": "tools/score_us_fiscal_targets.py:240-333", + "pool_manifest_authentication": ( + "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/" + "h5_io.py:348-430,672-811" + ), + "materialization_drop_detection": ( + "tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:4323-4350" + ), + "matrix_skip_detection": ( + "packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/matrix.py:286-355" + ), + "loss_weighting": ( + "tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:344-348,5781-5814,6214-6290" + ), + "loss_aggregate": ( + "packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/solve.py:473-518" + ), + "loss_attribution": ( + "packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/" + "_target_loss_attribution.py:103-212" + ), + "relative_error": ( + "packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/score.py:25-51" + ), + "battery_registry": ( + "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/" + "stacked_spine.py:3011-3025" + ), + "battery_origin_masks": ( + "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/" + "stacked_spine.py:11523-11533,11577-11580,11695-11703" + ), + "battery_receipt_keys": ( + "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/" + "stacked_spine.py:11819-11973" + ), + "battery_channel_constants": ( + "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/" + "support_provenance.py:31,333-344; " + "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/" + "stacked_spine.py:263" + ), + "pool_battery_persistence": ( + "tools/build_us_multispine_pool.py:3533-3540,3766-3776; " + "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/gates.py:690-700" + ), + "cd_provenance_check": ( + "tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:2519-2567,2570-2597" + ), + "incumbent_package_resolution": ( + "policyengine.py@5.0.3 src/policyengine/data/bundle/manifest.json " + "data_releases.us; src/policyengine/provenance/manifest.py:181-187," + "270-299,301-320,540-561" + ), +} + + +@dataclass(frozen=True) +class LoadedArtifact: + """One role-neutral artifact normalized to a US entity frame.""" + + frame: Frame + identity: Mapping[str, object] + loader: Mapping[str, object] + h5_path: Path + terminal_gates: Mapping[str, object] | None = None + authenticated_pool_h5: AuthenticatedPoolH5 | None = None + + +@dataclass(frozen=True) +class FiscalYardstick: + """The single compiled registry and exact production loss basis.""" + + registry: TargetRegistry + loss_weights: np.ndarray + loss_basis: Mapping[str, object] + identity: Mapping[str, object] + + +def _parse_args(argv: Sequence[str] | None = None) -> argparse.Namespace: + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser( + description=( + "Score a US incumbent and optional candidate on one fiscal registry " + "and every artifact-computable terminal battery comparison." + ) + ) + parser.add_argument("--incumbent", type=Path, required=True) + parser.add_argument( + "--candidate", + type=Path, + help="Candidate entity H5, ready pool manifest, or pool directory.", + ) + parser.add_argument( + "--ledger-facts", + type=Path, + required=True, + help="Ledger consumer facts JSONL that freezes the common target registry.", + ) + parser.add_argument( + "--out-prefix", + type=Path, + required=True, + help="Write .json and .md.", + ) + parser.add_argument( + "--candidate-manifest-sha256", + help="Optional external SHA-256 pin for a candidate pool manifest.", + ) + parser.add_argument( + "--age-targets", + action=argparse.BooleanOptionalAction, + default=False, + ) + parser.add_argument( + "--allow-unaged-dollar-targets", + action=argparse.BooleanOptionalAction, + default=True, + ) + parser.add_argument( + "--congressional-district-vintage-crosswalk", + type=Path, + default=None, + ) + parser.add_argument( + "--maximum-microsim-batch-size", + "--maximum-microsimulation-batch-size", + dest="maximum_microsim_batch_size", + type=int, + default=release.DEFAULT_MAXIMUM_MICROSIM_BATCH_SIZE, + ) + parser.add_argument( + "--target-materialization-cache-dir", + type=Path, + default=None, + ) + return parser.parse_args(argv) + + +def _sha256(path: Path) -> str: + digest = hashlib.sha256() + with path.open("rb") as stream: + for chunk in iter(lambda: stream.read(1024 * 1024), b""): + digest.update(chunk) + return digest.hexdigest() + + +def _canonical_sha256(value: object) -> str: + encoded = json.dumps( + value, + allow_nan=False, + separators=(",", ":"), + sort_keys=True, + ).encode() + return hashlib.sha256(encoded).hexdigest() + + +def _peak_rss_bytes() -> int: + peak = int(resource.getrusage(resource.RUSAGE_SELF).ru_maxrss) + # Darwin reports bytes; Linux and the other supported CI hosts report KiB. + return peak if sys.platform == "darwin" else peak * 1024 + + +def _assert_rss_below_limit(boundary: str) -> None: + observed = _peak_rss_bytes() + if observed >= MAX_RSS_BYTES: + raise MemoryError( + f"{boundary}: peak RSS {observed / 1024**3:.3f} GiB reached the " + f"{MAX_RSS_BYTES / 1024**3:.0f} GiB scoring limit." + ) + + +def _pool_manifest_from_directory(path: Path) -> Path: + candidates = sorted(path.glob("*.manifest.json")) + candidates.extend( + candidate + for candidate in (path / "manifest.json", path / "pool.manifest.json") + if candidate.is_file() and candidate not in candidates + ) + if len(candidates) != 1: + raise ValueError( + f"Pool directory {path} must contain exactly one direct pool " + f"manifest; found {[candidate.name for candidate in candidates]}." + ) + return candidates[0] + + +def _resolved_artifact_path(path: Path) -> Path: + resolved = path.expanduser().resolve() + if resolved.is_dir(): + return _pool_manifest_from_directory(resolved) + if not resolved.is_file(): + raise FileNotFoundError(f"Scoring artifact is not a file: {resolved}") + return resolved + + +def _h5_layout(path: Path) -> str: + if not h5py.is_hdf5(path): + raise ValueError(f"Scoring input is not an HDF5 file: {path}") + with h5py.File(path, "r") as root: + keys = set(root.keys()) + entity_layout = set(US_SCHEMA.entities).issubset(keys) + legacy_layout = "person_id" in keys and "household_weight" in keys + if entity_layout == legacy_layout: + raise ValueError( + f"H5 {path} has an ambiguous or unsupported US layout; " + f"entity_layout={entity_layout}, legacy_flat_layout={legacy_layout}." + ) + return "entity_tables" if entity_layout else "legacy_policyengine_flat" + + +def _live_incumbent_identity_if_matched(sha256: str) -> dict[str, object] | None: + if sha256 != _POLICYENGINE_LIVE_US_INCUMBENT["sha256"]: + return None + return { + "policyengine_package_resolved": dict(_POLICYENGINE_LIVE_US_INCUMBENT), + "resolution_citation": _CODE_CITATIONS["incumbent_package_resolution"], + } + + +def _load_pool_manifest( + manifest_path: Path, + *, + expected_manifest_sha256: str | None, +) -> LoadedArtifact: + frame, manifest, authenticated = load_simulation_ready_us_multispine_pool( + manifest_path, + expected_manifest_sha256=expected_manifest_sha256, + ) + terminal_gates = manifest.get("terminal_gates") + if not isinstance(terminal_gates, Mapping): + raise ValueError( + f"Authenticated pool manifest {manifest_path} has no terminal_gates " + "receipt; a simulation-ready stacked pool always seals one." + ) + identity = { + "kind": "authenticated_pool", + "filename": authenticated.path.name, + "sha256": authenticated.sha256, + "size_bytes": authenticated.size_bytes, + "manifest_filename": manifest_path.name, + "manifest_sha256": authenticated.manifest_sha256, + "publication_run_id": authenticated.publication_run_id, + "release_id": manifest.get("release_id"), + } + return LoadedArtifact( + frame=frame, + identity=identity, + loader={ + "kind": "authenticated_pool_manifest", + "weight_kind": frame.weights_for("household").kind.value, + }, + h5_path=authenticated.path, + terminal_gates=terminal_gates, + authenticated_pool_h5=authenticated, + ) + + +def _load_h5(path: Path) -> LoadedArtifact: + layout = _h5_layout(path) + if layout == "entity_tables": + try: + metadata = read_nullable_us_h5_metadata(path) + except ValueError: + metadata = {} + if metadata.get("artifact_kind") == US_MULTISPINE_POOL_H5_ARTIFACT_KIND: + raise ValueError( + f"{path} is a naked multispine pool H5. Pass its companion " + "manifest so readiness, weights, diagnostics, and terminal " + "battery receipts are authenticated." + ) + # The exact loader the canonical read-only fiscal scorer uses + # (tools/score_us_fiscal_targets.py:436 -> release._load_frame). + frame = release._load_frame(path) + loader: dict[str, object] = { + "kind": "microcosm_entity_h5", + "weight_kind": frame.weights_for("household").kind.value, + } + else: + frame, layout_receipt = fiscal_scorer._load_legacy_pe_flat_frame(path) + frame, formula_owned = fiscal_scorer._drop_legacy_formula_owned_inputs(frame) + loader = { + "kind": "legacy_policyengine_flat_h5", + "weight_kind": frame.weights_for("household").kind.value, + "layout_receipt": layout_receipt, + "formula_owned_inputs_dropped": formula_owned, + } + sha256 = _sha256(path) + identity: dict[str, object] = { + "kind": "h5", + "filename": path.name, + "sha256": sha256, + "size_bytes": path.stat().st_size, + } + published = _live_incumbent_identity_if_matched(sha256) + if published is not None: + identity.update(published) + return LoadedArtifact( + frame=frame, + identity=identity, + loader=loader, + h5_path=path, + ) + + +def load_artifact( + path: Path, + *, + expected_manifest_sha256: str | None = None, +) -> LoadedArtifact: + """Load a role-neutral H5 or authenticated pool into the common frame API.""" + + resolved = _resolved_artifact_path(path) + if resolved.suffix.lower() == ".json": + artifact = _load_pool_manifest( + resolved, + expected_manifest_sha256=expected_manifest_sha256, + ) + else: + if expected_manifest_sha256 is not None: + raise ValueError( + "--candidate-manifest-sha256 applies only to a pool manifest." + ) + artifact = _load_h5(resolved) + _assert_rss_below_limit(f"after loading {artifact.identity['filename']}") + return artifact + + +def compile_yardstick( + *, + ledger_facts: Path, + age_targets: bool, + allow_unaged_dollar_targets: bool, + congressional_district_vintage_crosswalk: Path, +) -> FiscalYardstick: + """Compile the complete registry and loss vector exactly once.""" + + ledger_facts = ledger_facts.expanduser().resolve() + crosswalk = congressional_district_vintage_crosswalk.expanduser().resolve() + ledger = release.load_ledger_consumer_artifact(ledger_facts) + registry = release.compile_us_fiscal_target_registry( + ledger.facts, + target_period=release.PERIOD, + age_targets=age_targets, + allow_unaged_dollar_targets=allow_unaged_dollar_targets, + congressional_district_vintage_crosswalk=( + release.load_congressional_district_vintage_crosswalk(crosswalk) + ), + ) + loss_weights = release._fiscal_target_loss_weights(registry) + loss_basis = release._fiscal_target_loss_basis(registry, loss_weights) + profile_gate = release.target_profile_coverage_gate( + registry.specs, + release.US_FISCAL_TARGET_COVERAGE_REQUIREMENTS, + ) + identity = { + "country": registry.country, + "version": registry.version, + "target_count": len(registry.specs), + "ledger_facts": { + "filename": ledger_facts.name, + "sha256": _sha256(ledger_facts), + "size_bytes": ledger_facts.stat().st_size, + }, + "congressional_district_vintage_crosswalk": { + "filename": crosswalk.name, + "sha256": _sha256(crosswalk), + "size_bytes": crosswalk.stat().st_size, + }, + "target_period": release.PERIOD, + "age_targets": age_targets, + "allow_unaged_dollar_targets": allow_unaged_dollar_targets, + "target_profile_coverage": { + "passed": profile_gate.passed, + "failures": list(profile_gate.failures), + }, + "environment": { + "microcosm_commit": release._git_output("rev-parse", "HEAD"), + "policyengine_us_version": release._package_or_workspace_version( + "policyengine-us" + ), + }, + } + _assert_rss_below_limit("after compiling the fiscal yardstick") + return FiscalYardstick( + registry=registry, + loss_weights=loss_weights, + loss_basis=loss_basis, + identity=identity, + ) + + +def _crosswalk_metadata(yardstick: FiscalYardstick) -> dict[str, object]: + value = yardstick.identity["congressional_district_vintage_crosswalk"] + if not isinstance(value, Mapping): # pragma: no cover - constructed above + raise TypeError("Yardstick crosswalk identity must be a mapping.") + return dict(value) + + +def _validate_cd_provenance( + artifact: LoadedArtifact, + yardstick: FiscalYardstick, +) -> dict[str, object]: + """Enforce the strict CD crosswalk provenance check, with one recorded + waiver for entity H5s that predate the provenance attributes entirely.""" + + if artifact.loader.get("kind") == "legacy_policyengine_flat_h5": + return { + "mode": "legacy_flat_surface_compatibility", + "strict_h5_attributes": False, + "reason": ( + "read-only scoring of a legacy flat H5 layout that predates " + "Microcosm crosswalk provenance attributes and entity tables" + ), + } + provenance = release._read_cd_vintage_support_provenance(artifact.h5_path) + sha_attr = provenance.get(CONGRESSIONAL_DISTRICT_VINTAGE_CROSSWALK_SHA256_ATTR) + if sha_attr: + release._assert_cd_vintage_support_matches( + artifact.h5_path, + _crosswalk_metadata(yardstick), + authenticated_pool_h5=artifact.authenticated_pool_h5, + ) + return { + "mode": "strict_h5_provenance", + "strict_h5_attributes": True, + } + if artifact.authenticated_pool_h5 is not None: + raise ValueError( + f"Authenticated pool H5 {artifact.h5_path} carries no " + "congressional-district vintage provenance attributes; candidate " + "pools are provenance-strict with no legacy waiver." + ) + lookup = provenance.get("household_congressional_district_geoid") + if ( + not isinstance(lookup, Mapping) + or not lookup.get("exists") + or int(lookup.get("positive_unique_count") or 0) <= 0 + ): + raise ValueError( + f"{artifact.h5_path} predates CD vintage provenance attributes AND " + "has no usable household congressional_district_geoid lookup " + f"column ({lookup!r}); it cannot stand on the current CD-bearing " + "target surface." + ) + return { + "mode": "legacy_missing_cd_provenance_attrs", + "strict_h5_attributes": False, + "reason": ( + "entity H5 predates the CD vintage crosswalk provenance " + "attributes; the household congressional_district_geoid lookup " + "surface was verified instead" + ), + "observed": { + CONGRESSIONAL_DISTRICT_VINTAGE_CROSSWALK_SHA256_ATTR: sha_attr, + CONGRESSIONAL_DISTRICT_VINTAGE_TARGET_ATTR: provenance.get( + CONGRESSIONAL_DISTRICT_VINTAGE_TARGET_ATTR + ), + "household_congressional_district_geoid": dict(lookup), + }, + } + + +def _materialization_cache_context( + artifact: LoadedArtifact, + yardstick: FiscalYardstick, +) -> dict[str, object]: + return { + "base_dataset_sha256": artifact.identity["sha256"], + "build_commit": release._git_output("rev-parse", "HEAD"), + "policyengine_us_version": release._package_or_workspace_version( + "policyengine-us" + ), + "seed": 0, + "target_period": release.PERIOD, + "target_registry_version": yardstick.registry.version, + # Scorer vectors declare no release materializer identity: the + # explicit None is identity-distinct from every release digest, + # so scorer and release vectors can never mix (PR #557). + "target_frame_materializer_identity_sha256": None, + "congressional_district_vintage_crosswalk_sha256": _crosswalk_metadata( + yardstick + )["sha256"], + } + + +def _materialize_full_registry( + frame: Frame, + yardstick: FiscalYardstick, + *, + artifact: LoadedArtifact, + maximum_microsim_batch_size: int | None, + target_materialization_cache_dir: Path | None, +): + return release._materialize_target_frame( + frame, + yardstick.registry.specs, + maximum_microsim_batch_size=maximum_microsim_batch_size, + target_materialization_cache_dir=target_materialization_cache_dir, + target_materialization_cache_context=( + _materialization_cache_context(artifact, yardstick) + if target_materialization_cache_dir is not None + else None + ), + ) + + +def _expected_target_keys(registry: TargetRegistry) -> tuple[tuple[str, object], ...]: + return tuple(spec.key for spec in registry.specs) + + +def scored_column_contract( + target_frame: Frame, + expected_registry: TargetRegistry, + *, + artifact_name: str, +) -> tuple[tuple[str, str, str], ...]: + """Return and validate every entity/column/role used by the yardstick.""" + + contract: set[tuple[str, str, str]] = set() + missing: list[str] = [] + for spec in expected_registry.specs: + table = target_frame.table(spec.entity) + for role, column in (("measure", spec.measure), ("filter", spec.filter)): + if column is None: + continue + key = (spec.entity, str(column), role) + contract.add(key) + if column not in table.columns: + missing.append( + f"{spec.name}@{spec.period}: {spec.entity}.{column} ({role})" + ) + if missing: + raise ValueError( + f"{artifact_name} lacks scored column(s): " + "; ".join(missing[:20]) + ) + return tuple(sorted(contract)) + + +def _assert_nothing_dropped( + *, + artifact_name: str, + compilation: Mapping[str, object], +) -> None: + dropped = tuple(compilation.get("dropped_target_names") or ()) + if dropped: + raise ValueError( + f"{artifact_name} did not materialize the full fiscal registry; " + f"dropped {len(dropped)} target(s): {list(dropped[:20])}." + ) + + +def _assert_full_surface( + *, + artifact_name: str, + yardstick: FiscalYardstick, + materialized_registry: TargetRegistry, + result, +) -> None: + expected = _expected_target_keys(yardstick.registry) + materialized = _expected_target_keys(materialized_registry) + if materialized != expected: + raise ValueError( + f"{artifact_name} materialized target contract differs from the " + f"yardstick: expected {len(expected)} ordered keys, got " + f"{len(materialized)}." + ) + if result.skipped: + examples = [ + f"{item.target.row_name}: {item.reason}" for item in result.skipped[:20] + ] + raise ValueError( + f"{artifact_name} skipped {len(result.skipped)} target(s) in the " + f"constraint matrix: {examples}." + ) + problem_keys = tuple(target.key for target in result.problem.targets) + if problem_keys != expected: + raise ValueError( + f"{artifact_name} constraint-matrix target contract differs from " + "the full yardstick." + ) + expected_names = tuple(spec.to_target().row_name for spec in yardstick.registry) + diagnostic_names = tuple(row.name for row in result.diagnostics) + if diagnostic_names != expected_names: + raise ValueError( + f"{artifact_name} diagnostic row contract differs from the full yardstick." + ) + + +def _fiscal_rows( + *, + yardstick: FiscalYardstick, + result, +) -> list[dict[str, object]]: + attribution = assemble_target_loss_attribution(result) + rows: list[dict[str, object]] = [] + for spec, diagnostic, loss_row in zip( + yardstick.registry.specs, + result.diagnostics, + attribution.rows, + strict=True, + ): + relative_error = float(diagnostic.relative_error) + rows.append( + { + "name": spec.name, + "period": spec.period, + "entity": spec.entity, + "family": spec.family, + "value_basis": release._fiscal_target_value_basis(spec), + "target": float(diagnostic.target), + "actual": float(diagnostic.final_estimate), + "relative_error": relative_error, + "absolute_relative_error": abs(relative_error), + "target_loss_weight": loss_row["target_loss_weight"], + "target_loss_weight_share": loss_row["target_loss_weight_share"], + "target_loss_scale": loss_row["target_loss_scale"], + "capped_scaled_absolute_error": loss_row["final_capped_scaled_error"], + "weighted_loss_contribution": loss_row["final_loss_contribution"], + } + ) + contribution_sum = math.fsum( + float(row["weighted_loss_contribution"]) for row in rows + ) + if not math.isclose( + contribution_sum, + float(result.final_loss), + rel_tol=1e-12, + abs_tol=1e-12, + ): + raise RuntimeError( + "Fiscal row contributions do not reproduce the aggregate loss." + ) + return rows + + +def _battery_label(target: tuple[str, str, str, int]) -> str: + entity, family, column, clone_index = target + return f"{entity}/{family}/{column}[clone_{clone_index}]" + + +def _joint_battery_label( + target: tuple[str, str, tuple[str, ...], int], +) -> str: + entity, family, columns, clone_index = target + return f"{entity}/{family}/joint[{','.join(columns)}][clone_{clone_index}]" + + +def _metric_legs(metric: str) -> tuple[str, ...]: + if metric == "boolean_incidence": + return ("incidence_ratio_acs_over_asec",) + if metric == "monetary_sign_separated": + return ( + "positive_incidence_ratio_acs_over_asec", + "positive_quantile_envelope_distance", + "negative_incidence_ratio_acs_over_asec", + "negative_quantile_envelope_distance", + ) + if metric == "categorical_tvd": + return ("total_variation_distance",) + raise ValueError(f"Unknown canonical terminal-battery metric {metric!r}.") + + +def _canonical_battery_contract() -> dict[str, dict[str, object]]: + contract: dict[str, dict[str, object]] = {} + for target, metric in sorted(CANONICAL_ORIGIN_BATTERY_METRIC_REGISTRY.items()): + contract[_battery_label(target)] = { + "metric": metric, + "metric_legs": list(_metric_legs(metric)), + "joint": False, + } + for target, metric in sorted( + CANONICAL_ORIGIN_BATTERY_JOINT_METRIC_REGISTRY.items() + ): + contract[_joint_battery_label(target)] = { + "metric": metric, + "metric_legs": list(_metric_legs(metric)), + "joint": True, + } + return dict(sorted(contract.items())) + + +def _battery_entities() -> tuple[str, ...]: + return tuple( + sorted( + {key[0] for key in CANONICAL_ORIGIN_BATTERY_METRIC_REGISTRY} + | {key[0] for key in CANONICAL_ORIGIN_BATTERY_JOINT_METRIC_REGISTRY} + ) + ) + + +def _observed_origin_receipt(frame: Frame) -> dict[str, object]: + """Count each battery entity's rows per support channel, from the frame.""" + + receipt: dict[str, object] = {} + entities_missing_columns: list[str] = [] + total_acs_rows = 0 + total_asec_rows = 0 + for entity in _battery_entities(): + table = frame.table(entity) + channel_column = support_channel_column(entity) + clone_column = support_clone_index_column(entity) + if channel_column not in table.columns or clone_column not in table.columns: + entities_missing_columns.append(entity) + receipt[entity] = {"provenance_columns_present": False} + continue + counts = { + str(channel): int(count) + for channel, count in table[channel_column] + .astype(str) + .value_counts() + .items() + } + asec_rows = counts.get(BASE_ASEC_SUPPORT_CHANNEL, 0) + acs_rows = counts.get(ACS_STACKED_SUPPORT_CHANNEL, 0) + receipt[entity] = { + "provenance_columns_present": True, + "origin_row_counts": dict(sorted(counts.items())), + "asec_rows": asec_rows, + "acs_rows": acs_rows, + } + total_asec_rows += asec_rows + total_acs_rows += acs_rows + return { + "entities": receipt, + "entities_missing_provenance_columns": entities_missing_columns, + "total_asec_rows": total_asec_rows, + "total_acs_rows": total_acs_rows, + } + + +def _battery_payload_from_observed_origins(frame: Frame) -> dict[str, object]: + contract = _canonical_battery_contract() + observed = _observed_origin_receipt(frame) + if observed["entities_missing_provenance_columns"]: + reason = ( + "artifact has no support-channel/clone-role provenance columns on " + f"{observed['entities_missing_provenance_columns']}; the by-origin " + "battery cannot scope its ASEC/ACS masks" + ) + elif observed["total_acs_rows"] == 0: + reason = ( + "artifact carries no ACS-stacked origin rows (observed channels " + "are listed in observed_origins); the ASEC-vs-ACS battery has an " + "empty ACS side and is definitionally inapplicable" + ) + else: + reason = ( + "both origins are present, but by-origin battery evidence for a " + "finished artifact is accepted only from an authenticated pool " + "manifest receipt; pass the pool manifest instead of the bare H5" + ) + return { + "status": "inapplicable", + "by_origin_only": True, + "reason": reason, + "observed_origins": observed, + "comparison_count": len(contract), + "metric_leg_count": sum(len(row["metric_legs"]) for row in contract.values()), + "comparisons": { + label: { + **row, + "status": "inapplicable", + "reason": reason, + } + for label, row in contract.items() + }, + } + + +def _battery_payload_from_pool_receipt( + terminal_gates: Mapping[str, object], +) -> dict[str, object]: + contract = _canonical_battery_contract() + gates = terminal_gates.get("gates") + if not isinstance(gates, Mapping): + raise ValueError("Authenticated pool terminal_gates has no gates object.") + battery = gates.get("us_by_origin_battery") + if not isinstance(battery, Mapping): + raise ValueError( + "Authenticated pool terminal receipt has no us_by_origin_battery gate." + ) + details = battery.get("details") + comparisons = details.get("comparisons") if isinstance(details, Mapping) else None + if not isinstance(comparisons, Mapping): + raise ValueError( + "Authenticated pool by-origin battery has no comparisons receipt." + ) + missing = sorted(set(contract) - set(comparisons)) + extra = sorted(set(comparisons) - set(contract)) + if missing or extra: + raise ValueError( + "Authenticated pool terminal battery does not exactly cover the " + f"canonical contract; missing={missing[:20]}, extra={extra[:20]}." + ) + normalized: dict[str, object] = {} + for label, contract_row in contract.items(): + receipt = comparisons[label] + if not isinstance(receipt, Mapping): + raise ValueError(f"Battery comparison {label!r} is not an object.") + if receipt.get("metric") != contract_row["metric"]: + raise ValueError( + f"Battery comparison {label!r} metric {receipt.get('metric')!r} " + f"does not match canonical {contract_row['metric']!r}." + ) + normalized[label] = { + **contract_row, + **dict(receipt), + } + return { + "status": "authenticated_pool_receipt", + "by_origin_only": True, + "gate_passed": battery.get("passed"), + "failures": list(battery.get("failures") or ()), + "comparison_count": len(contract), + "metric_leg_count": sum(len(row["metric_legs"]) for row in contract.values()), + "comparisons": normalized, + } + + +def _terminal_battery_payload(artifact: LoadedArtifact) -> dict[str, object]: + if artifact.terminal_gates is not None: + return _battery_payload_from_pool_receipt(artifact.terminal_gates) + return _battery_payload_from_observed_origins(artifact.frame) + + +def score_loaded_artifact( + *, + artifact: LoadedArtifact, + artifact_name: str, + yardstick: FiscalYardstick, + maximum_microsim_batch_size: int | None, + target_materialization_cache_dir: Path | None, +) -> tuple[dict[str, object], tuple[tuple[str, str, str], ...]]: + """Run the common scoring path for one already-normalized artifact.""" + + cd_provenance = _validate_cd_provenance(artifact, yardstick) + terminal_battery = _terminal_battery_payload(artifact) + base_frame, mass_repair = release._with_base_population_mass_repair(artifact.frame) + population_gate = release._base_population_scale_gate( + base_frame, + mass_repair=mass_repair, + ) + health_gate = release._health_input_signal_gate(base_frame) + target_frame, materialized_registry, compilation = _materialize_full_registry( + base_frame, + yardstick, + artifact=artifact, + maximum_microsim_batch_size=maximum_microsim_batch_size, + target_materialization_cache_dir=target_materialization_cache_dir, + ) + _assert_rss_below_limit(f"after materializing {artifact_name}") + _assert_nothing_dropped(artifact_name=artifact_name, compilation=compilation) + contract = scored_column_contract( + target_frame, + yardstick.registry, + artifact_name=artifact_name, + ) + result = score_targets( + target_frame, + materialized_registry.to_target_set(), + target_loss_weights=yardstick.loss_weights, + target_loss_cap=release.US_FISCAL_TARGET_LOSS_CAP, + options={ + "mass": "existing_weights", + "target_loss_weighting": release.US_FISCAL_TARGET_LOSS_WEIGHTING, + "maximum_microsim_batch_size": maximum_microsim_batch_size, + }, + ) + _assert_full_surface( + artifact_name=artifact_name, + yardstick=yardstick, + materialized_registry=materialized_registry, + result=result, + ) + _assert_rss_below_limit(f"after scoring {artifact_name}") + rows = _fiscal_rows(yardstick=yardstick, result=result) + payload = { + "identity": dict(artifact.identity), + "loader": dict(artifact.loader), + "scored_column_contract": { + "sha256": _canonical_sha256(contract), + "column_count": len(contract), + "columns": [list(item) for item in contract], + }, + "fiscal": { + "weighted_loss": float(result.final_loss), + "fraction_within_10pct": float(result.fraction_within_10pct), + "household_count": int(result.weights.shape[0]), + "nonzero_household_weight_count": int(result.n_nonzero), + "target_count": len(rows), + "targets": rows, + }, + "terminal_battery": terminal_battery, + "normalization_receipts": { + "congressional_district_provenance": cd_provenance, + "base_population_mass_repair": dict(mass_repair), + "base_population_scale_gate": { + "passed": population_gate.passed, + "failures": list(population_gate.failures), + "details": dict(population_gate.details), + }, + "health_input_signal_gate": { + "passed": health_gate.passed, + "failures": list(health_gate.failures), + "details": dict(health_gate.details), + }, + "target_compilation": dict(compilation), + }, + } + return payload, contract + + +def _assert_identical_scored_contracts( + contracts: Mapping[str, tuple[tuple[str, str, str], ...]], +) -> None: + items = list(contracts.items()) + if len(items) < 2: + return + reference_name, reference = items[0] + for artifact_name, contract in items[1:]: + if contract != reference: + missing = sorted(set(reference) - set(contract)) + extra = sorted(set(contract) - set(reference)) + raise ValueError( + f"{artifact_name} scored-column contract differs from " + f"{reference_name}; missing={missing[:20]}, extra={extra[:20]}." + ) + + +def _battery_status_counts(battery: Mapping[str, object]) -> dict[str, int]: + comparisons = battery.get("comparisons") + if not isinstance(comparisons, Mapping): + return {} + counts: dict[str, int] = {} + for row in comparisons.values(): + status = ( + str(row.get("status") or "unknown") + if isinstance(row, Mapping) + else ("unknown") + ) + counts[status] = counts.get(status, 0) + 1 + return dict(sorted(counts.items())) + + +def _comparison_payload( + incumbent: Mapping[str, object], + candidate: Mapping[str, object], +) -> dict[str, object]: + incumbent_fiscal = incumbent["fiscal"] + candidate_fiscal = candidate["fiscal"] + if not isinstance(incumbent_fiscal, Mapping) or not isinstance( + candidate_fiscal, Mapping + ): + raise TypeError("Artifact fiscal payloads must be mappings.") + incumbent_rows = incumbent_fiscal["targets"] + candidate_rows = candidate_fiscal["targets"] + if not isinstance(incumbent_rows, list) or not isinstance(candidate_rows, list): + raise TypeError("Artifact target payloads must be lists.") + if len(incumbent_rows) != len(candidate_rows): + raise ValueError("Fiscal target payload lengths differ after contract checks.") + target_comparisons: list[dict[str, object]] = [] + candidate_lower = 0 + equal = 0 + incumbent_lower = 0 + for incumbent_row, candidate_row in zip( + incumbent_rows, + candidate_rows, + strict=True, + ): + key = (incumbent_row["name"], incumbent_row["period"]) + candidate_key = (candidate_row["name"], candidate_row["period"]) + if candidate_key != key: + raise ValueError( + f"Target comparison contracts differ: {key!r} vs {candidate_key!r}." + ) + incumbent_error = float(incumbent_row["absolute_relative_error"]) + candidate_error = float(candidate_row["absolute_relative_error"]) + if candidate_error < incumbent_error: + candidate_lower += 1 + lower = "candidate" + elif candidate_error > incumbent_error: + incumbent_lower += 1 + lower = "incumbent" + else: + equal += 1 + lower = "equal" + target_comparisons.append( + { + "name": key[0], + "period": key[1], + "incumbent_absolute_relative_error": incumbent_error, + "candidate_absolute_relative_error": candidate_error, + "candidate_minus_incumbent_absolute_relative_error": ( + candidate_error - incumbent_error + ), + "lower_absolute_relative_error": lower, + } + ) + incumbent_loss = float(incumbent_fiscal["weighted_loss"]) + candidate_loss = float(candidate_fiscal["weighted_loss"]) + incumbent_battery = incumbent["terminal_battery"] + candidate_battery = candidate["terminal_battery"] + if not isinstance(incumbent_battery, Mapping) or not isinstance( + candidate_battery, Mapping + ): + raise TypeError("Artifact terminal_battery payloads must be mappings.") + both_authenticated = ( + incumbent_battery.get("status") == "authenticated_pool_receipt" + and candidate_battery.get("status") == "authenticated_pool_receipt" + ) + return { + "decision": "owner_decides_flip", + "no_threshold_applied": True, + "fiscal_weighted_loss": { + "incumbent": incumbent_loss, + "candidate": candidate_loss, + "candidate_minus_incumbent": candidate_loss - incumbent_loss, + }, + "per_target_absolute_relative_error": { + "candidate_lower_count": candidate_lower, + "equal_count": equal, + "incumbent_lower_count": incumbent_lower, + "targets": target_comparisons, + }, + "terminal_battery": { + "head_to_head_comparable": both_authenticated, + "incumbent_status": incumbent_battery.get("status"), + "candidate_status": candidate_battery.get("status"), + "incumbent_status_counts": _battery_status_counts(incumbent_battery), + "candidate_status_counts": _battery_status_counts(candidate_battery), + "note": ( + "each side's battery evidence is reported on its own terms; " + "no value is synthesized for a side whose battery is " + "inapplicable" + ), + }, + } + + +def score_head_to_head( + *, + incumbent: Path, + candidate: Path | None, + ledger_facts: Path, + age_targets: bool = False, + allow_unaged_dollar_targets: bool = True, + congressional_district_vintage_crosswalk: Path | None = None, + maximum_microsim_batch_size: int | None = ( + release.DEFAULT_MAXIMUM_MICROSIM_BATCH_SIZE + ), + target_materialization_cache_dir: Path | None = None, + candidate_manifest_sha256: str | None = None, +) -> dict[str, object]: + """Compile once, then score incumbent and optional candidate sequentially.""" + + crosswalk = congressional_district_vintage_crosswalk or ( + release.default_congressional_district_vintage_crosswalk_path() + ) + yardstick = compile_yardstick( + ledger_facts=ledger_facts, + age_targets=age_targets, + allow_unaged_dollar_targets=allow_unaged_dollar_targets, + congressional_district_vintage_crosswalk=crosswalk, + ) + artifact_paths = [("incumbent", incumbent, None)] + if candidate is not None: + artifact_paths.append(("candidate", candidate, candidate_manifest_sha256)) + artifacts: dict[str, dict[str, object]] = {} + contracts: dict[str, tuple[tuple[str, str, str], ...]] = {} + for name, path, expected_manifest_sha256 in artifact_paths: + loaded = load_artifact( + path, + expected_manifest_sha256=expected_manifest_sha256, + ) + artifact_payload, contract = score_loaded_artifact( + artifact=loaded, + artifact_name=name, + yardstick=yardstick, + maximum_microsim_batch_size=maximum_microsim_batch_size, + target_materialization_cache_dir=target_materialization_cache_dir, + ) + artifacts[name] = artifact_payload + contracts[name] = contract + del loaded + gc.collect() + _assert_rss_below_limit(f"after releasing {name} scoring state") + _assert_identical_scored_contracts(contracts) + candidate_payload = artifacts.get("candidate") + comparison = ( + _comparison_payload(artifacts["incumbent"], candidate_payload) + if candidate_payload is not None + else None + ) + battery_contract = _canonical_battery_contract() + return { + "schema_version": SCHEMA_VERSION, + "yardstick": { + "fiscal_registry": dict(yardstick.identity), + "fiscal_aggregate": { + "name": release.US_FISCAL_TARGET_LOSS_WEIGHTING, + "target_loss_cap": release.US_FISCAL_TARGET_LOSS_CAP, + "loss_basis": dict(yardstick.loss_basis), + "weighting_rule": ( + "raw weight = sqrt(max(abs(target value), 1)); " + "mean-normalized within amount/count value basis; each " + "semantic concept group's total weight is scaled to its " + "largest row weight; the amount and count bases are then " + "scaled to equal total budget; the vector is " + "mean-normalized; the aggregate is the weighted mean of " + "per-target |actual - target| / max(|target|, 1), each " + "capped at 100%" + ), + "family_multipliers": None, + "code_citations": [ + _CODE_CITATIONS["loss_weighting"], + _CODE_CITATIONS["loss_aggregate"], + _CODE_CITATIONS["loss_attribution"], + ], + }, + "relative_error": { + "rule": ( + "(actual - target) / target; when target is zero, the raw " + "actual-minus-target delta" + ), + "code_citation": _CODE_CITATIONS["relative_error"], + }, + "terminal_battery": { + "by_origin_only": True, + "single_column_comparison_count": len( + CANONICAL_ORIGIN_BATTERY_METRIC_REGISTRY + ), + "joint_comparison_count": len( + CANONICAL_ORIGIN_BATTERY_JOINT_METRIC_REGISTRY + ), + "comparison_count": len(battery_contract), + "metric_leg_count": sum( + len(row["metric_legs"]) for row in battery_contract.values() + ), + "code_citations": [ + _CODE_CITATIONS["battery_registry"], + _CODE_CITATIONS["battery_origin_masks"], + _CODE_CITATIONS["battery_receipt_keys"], + _CODE_CITATIONS["battery_channel_constants"], + _CODE_CITATIONS["pool_battery_persistence"], + ], + }, + "code_citations": dict(_CODE_CITATIONS), + }, + "artifacts": { + "incumbent": artifacts["incumbent"], + "candidate": candidate_payload, + }, + "comparison": comparison, + } + + +def _markdown_number(value: object) -> str: + if value is None: + return "—" + number = float(value) + if number == 0: + return "0" + if abs(number) >= 1_000_000 or abs(number) < 0.0001: + return f"{number:.8e}" + return f"{number:.8f}".rstrip("0").rstrip(".") + + +def _markdown_escape(value: object) -> str: + return str(value).replace("|", "\\|").replace("\n", " ") + + +def _family_basis_rollup( + rows: Sequence[Mapping[str, object]], +) -> list[dict[str, object]]: + groups: dict[tuple[str, str], dict[str, object]] = {} + for row in rows: + key = (str(row["family"]), str(row["value_basis"])) + group = groups.setdefault( + key, + { + "family": key[0], + "value_basis": key[1], + "target_count": 0, + "weight_share": 0.0, + "loss_contribution": 0.0, + "worst_target": None, + "worst_contribution": -1.0, + }, + ) + group["target_count"] = int(group["target_count"]) + 1 + group["weight_share"] = float(group["weight_share"]) + float( + row["target_loss_weight_share"] + ) + contribution = float(row["weighted_loss_contribution"]) + group["loss_contribution"] = float(group["loss_contribution"]) + contribution + if contribution > float(group["worst_contribution"]): + group["worst_contribution"] = contribution + group["worst_target"] = f"{row['name']}@{row['period']}" + rollup = list(groups.values()) + for group in rollup: + share = float(group["weight_share"]) + group["mean_capped_scaled_error"] = ( + float(group["loss_contribution"]) / share if share > 0 else 0.0 + ) + del group["worst_contribution"] + rollup.sort(key=lambda group: -float(group["loss_contribution"])) + return rollup + + +def _battery_markdown_section( + role: str, + battery: Mapping[str, object], +) -> list[str]: + lines = [f"### {role}", ""] + status = str(battery.get("status") or "unknown") + counts = _battery_status_counts(battery) + counts_text = ", ".join(f"{name}: {count}" for name, count in counts.items()) + if status == "inapplicable": + lines.append( + f"All {battery['comparison_count']} comparisons inapplicable — " + f"{battery['reason']}." + ) + observed = battery.get("observed_origins") + if isinstance(observed, Mapping): + entities = observed.get("entities") + if isinstance(entities, Mapping): + for entity, receipt in sorted(entities.items()): + if not isinstance(receipt, Mapping): + continue + if not receipt.get("provenance_columns_present"): + lines.append( + f"- `{entity}`: no support-channel/clone-role columns." + ) + continue + origin_counts = receipt.get("origin_row_counts") + lines.append( + f"- `{entity}` origin rows: " + + ", ".join( + f"{channel}={count:,}" + for channel, count in sorted((origin_counts or {}).items()) + ) + ) + else: + lines.append( + f"Authenticated pool receipt; gate passed: " + f"`{battery.get('gate_passed')}`. Status counts: {counts_text}." + ) + failures = battery.get("failures") + if isinstance(failures, list) and failures: + lines.append("") + lines.append(f"{len(failures)} sealed failure line(s):") + lines.extend(f"- {_markdown_escape(line)}" for line in failures[:40]) + if len(failures) > 40: + lines.append(f"- … {len(failures) - 40} more in the JSON twin.") + lines.append("") + return lines + + +def render_markdown(payload: Mapping[str, object]) -> str: + """Render a deterministic head-to-head Markdown scorecard. + + The complete per-target table (every registry row) lives in the JSON twin; + this scorecard renders the aggregate, family rollups, and the worst rows. + """ + + yardstick = payload["yardstick"] + artifacts = payload["artifacts"] + if not isinstance(yardstick, Mapping) or not isinstance(artifacts, Mapping): + raise TypeError("Scorecard payload has invalid yardstick/artifacts objects.") + incumbent = artifacts["incumbent"] + candidate = artifacts.get("candidate") + if not isinstance(incumbent, Mapping): + raise TypeError("Scorecard incumbent must be a mapping.") + roles: list[tuple[str, Mapping[str, object]]] = [("incumbent", incumbent)] + if isinstance(candidate, Mapping): + roles.append(("candidate", candidate)) + registry = yardstick["fiscal_registry"] + aggregate = yardstick["fiscal_aggregate"] + battery_meta = yardstick["terminal_battery"] + lines = [ + "# US release replacement scorecard", + "", + "This is evidence for the owner's flip decision, not an automatic " + "publication verdict. No gate, threshold, tolerance, or band is applied " + "by this scorecard. The complete per-target table is in the JSON twin " + "of this file.", + "", + "## Frozen yardstick", + "", + f"- Fiscal registry: `{registry['version']}` with " + f"{registry['target_count']:,} targets from Ledger facts " + f"`{registry['ledger_facts']['sha256']}`.", + f"- Weighted aggregate: `{aggregate['name']}` with cap " + f"`{aggregate['target_loss_cap']}` and no family multipliers.", + f"- Weighting rule: {aggregate['weighting_rule']}.", + f"- Terminal battery: {battery_meta['single_column_comparison_count']} " + f"single-column plus {battery_meta['joint_comparison_count']} joint " + "comparison(s); all are by-origin-only (ASEC vs ACS within one " + "artifact).", + "", + "## Artifact summary", + "", + "| role | artifact SHA-256 | loader | households | nonzero weights | " + "weighted loss | within 10% | terminal battery |", + "|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|", + ] + for role, artifact in roles: + fiscal = artifact["fiscal"] + battery = artifact["terminal_battery"] + lines.append( + f"| {role} | `{artifact['identity']['sha256']}` | " + f"{_markdown_escape(artifact['loader']['kind'])} | " + f"{fiscal['household_count']:,} | " + f"{fiscal['nonzero_household_weight_count']:,} | " + f"{_markdown_number(fiscal['weighted_loss'])} | " + f"{_markdown_number(fiscal['fraction_within_10pct'])} | " + f"{_markdown_escape(battery['status'])} |" + ) + identity = incumbent["identity"] + if isinstance(identity, Mapping) and "policyengine_package_resolved" in identity: + resolved = identity["policyengine_package_resolved"] + lines.extend( + [ + "", + "The incumbent SHA-256 matches the artifact policyengine.py " + f"`{resolved['policyengine_version']}` resolves as the US " + f"default dataset: `{resolved['repo_id']}` revision " + f"`{resolved['revision']}`, file `{resolved['filename']}` " + f"(build `{resolved['build_id']}`).", + ] + ) + comparison = payload.get("comparison") + if isinstance(comparison, Mapping): + loss = comparison["fiscal_weighted_loss"] + counts = comparison["per_target_absolute_relative_error"] + lines.extend( + [ + "", + "## Raw head-to-head comparison", + "", + f"Candidate minus incumbent weighted loss: " + f"**{_markdown_number(loss['candidate_minus_incumbent'])}** " + f"(incumbent {_markdown_number(loss['incumbent'])}, candidate " + f"{_markdown_number(loss['candidate'])}). A negative value is " + "a lower candidate loss; the owner decides whether the full " + "evidence warrants the flip.", + "", + f"Per-target absolute relative error is lower for the candidate " + f"on {counts['candidate_lower_count']:,} targets, equal on " + f"{counts['equal_count']:,}, and lower for the incumbent on " + f"{counts['incumbent_lower_count']:,}. No materiality threshold " + "is imposed.", + ] + ) + for role, artifact in roles: + fiscal = artifact["fiscal"] + rows = fiscal["targets"] + if not isinstance(rows, list): + raise TypeError("Artifact fiscal targets must be a list.") + rollup = _family_basis_rollup(rows) + lines.extend( + [ + "", + f"## {role}: loss by family and value basis", + "", + "| family | basis | targets | weight share | loss contribution | " + "weighted mean capped error | worst target |", + "|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|", + ] + ) + for group in rollup: + lines.append( + f"| {_markdown_escape(group['family'])} | " + f"{_markdown_escape(group['value_basis'])} | " + f"{group['target_count']:,} | " + f"{_markdown_number(group['weight_share'])} | " + f"{_markdown_number(group['loss_contribution'])} | " + f"{_markdown_number(group['mean_capped_scaled_error'])} | " + f"{_markdown_escape(group['worst_target'])} |" + ) + worst = sorted( + rows, + key=lambda row: -float(row["weighted_loss_contribution"]), + )[:MARKDOWN_WORST_TARGET_ROWS] + lines.extend( + [ + "", + f"## {role}: worst {len(worst)} targets by loss contribution", + "", + "| target | period | family | target value | actual | " + "relative error | loss contribution |", + "|---|---:|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|", + ] + ) + for row in worst: + lines.append( + f"| {_markdown_escape(row['name'])} | " + f"{_markdown_escape(row['period'])} | " + f"{_markdown_escape(row['family'])} | " + f"{_markdown_number(row['target'])} | " + f"{_markdown_number(row['actual'])} | " + f"{_markdown_number(row['relative_error'])} | " + f"{_markdown_number(row['weighted_loss_contribution'])} |" + ) + lines.extend( + [ + "", + "## Terminal by-origin battery", + "", + ] + ) + for role, artifact in roles: + battery = artifact["terminal_battery"] + if not isinstance(battery, Mapping): + raise TypeError("Artifact terminal_battery must be a mapping.") + lines.extend(_battery_markdown_section(role, battery)) + lines.extend( + [ + "## Mechanism citations", + "", + ] + ) + for name, citation in sorted(yardstick["code_citations"].items()): + lines.append(f"- `{name}`: `{citation}`") + return "\n".join(lines) + "\n" + + +def write_scorecard( + payload: Mapping[str, object], + out_prefix: Path, +) -> tuple[Path, Path]: + """Write deterministic JSON and Markdown bytes for one payload.""" + + prefix = out_prefix.expanduser().resolve() + prefix.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + json_path = prefix.with_suffix(".json") + markdown_path = prefix.with_suffix(".md") + json_text = ( + json.dumps( + payload, + allow_nan=False, + indent=2, + sort_keys=True, + ) + + "\n" + ) + markdown_text = render_markdown(payload) + json_path.write_text(json_text) + markdown_path.write_text(markdown_text) + return json_path, markdown_path + + +def main(argv: Sequence[str] | None = None) -> int: + args = _parse_args(argv) + payload = score_head_to_head( + incumbent=args.incumbent, + candidate=args.candidate, + ledger_facts=args.ledger_facts, + age_targets=args.age_targets, + allow_unaged_dollar_targets=args.allow_unaged_dollar_targets, + congressional_district_vintage_crosswalk=( + args.congressional_district_vintage_crosswalk + ), + maximum_microsim_batch_size=args.maximum_microsim_batch_size, + target_materialization_cache_dir=args.target_materialization_cache_dir, + candidate_manifest_sha256=args.candidate_manifest_sha256, + ) + json_path, markdown_path = write_scorecard(payload, args.out_prefix) + print( + json.dumps( + { + "json": str(json_path), + "markdown": str(markdown_path), + "incumbent_sha256": payload["artifacts"]["incumbent"]["identity"][ + "sha256" + ], + "candidate_scored": payload["artifacts"]["candidate"] is not None, + "peak_rss_gib": round(_peak_rss_bytes() / 1024**3, 3), + }, + indent=2, + sort_keys=True, + ) + ) + return 0 + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + raise SystemExit(main()) From 758aa0c4d85c5f4c63253a7af79766a2982f2b38 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Sat, 22 Aug 2026 20:14:29 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 05/12] Keep the .h5 snapshot name when loading a symlinked artifact Hugging Face cache snapshots are .h5-named symlinks to extensionless blob files; resolving the artifact path stripped the suffix policyengine-us's USSingleYearDataset validates and would have recorded the blob hash as the filename identity. The scorer now keeps the snapshot path, with a test that pins the symlink shape. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 --- .../test_us_release_head_to_head_scorer.py | 22 +++++++++++++++++++ tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py | 17 +++++++++----- 2 files changed, 33 insertions(+), 6 deletions(-) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_release_head_to_head_scorer.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_release_head_to_head_scorer.py index d9b444ef..aecb3d14 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_release_head_to_head_scorer.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_release_head_to_head_scorer.py @@ -429,6 +429,28 @@ def _dropping_materialize(frame, specs, **kwargs): ) +def test_artifact_path_keeps_h5_symlink_name(tmp_path) -> None: + """A Hugging Face cache snapshot is an .h5-named symlink to an + extensionless blob; the scorer must keep the snapshot name so the + dataset loader's suffix validation and the filename identity both see + the real artifact name.""" + + module = _load_head_to_head_module() + blob = tmp_path / "blobs" / ("a" * 8) + blob.parent.mkdir() + blob.write_bytes(b"not-really-h5") + snapshot = tmp_path / "snapshots" / "populace_us_2024.h5" + snapshot.parent.mkdir() + snapshot.symlink_to(blob) + + kept = module._resolved_artifact_path(snapshot) + + assert kept.name == "populace_us_2024.h5" + assert kept.suffix == ".h5" + with pytest.raises(FileNotFoundError): + module._resolved_artifact_path(tmp_path / "missing.h5") + + def test_live_incumbent_identity_annotation() -> None: module = _load_head_to_head_module() diff --git a/tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py b/tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py index 380e9897..86671d0d 100644 --- a/tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py +++ b/tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py @@ -289,12 +289,17 @@ def _pool_manifest_from_directory(path: Path) -> Path: def _resolved_artifact_path(path: Path) -> Path: - resolved = path.expanduser().resolve() - if resolved.is_dir(): - return _pool_manifest_from_directory(resolved) - if not resolved.is_file(): - raise FileNotFoundError(f"Scoring artifact is not a file: {resolved}") - return resolved + # Never resolve() the artifact file path: Hugging Face cache snapshots + # are symlinks named .h5 pointing at extensionless blob files, so + # resolving would both strip the .h5 suffix the policyengine-us dataset + # loader validates and replace the meaningful filename identity with a + # blob hash. + expanded = path.expanduser() + if expanded.is_dir(): + return _pool_manifest_from_directory(expanded) + if not expanded.is_file(): + raise FileNotFoundError(f"Scoring artifact is not a file: {expanded}") + return expanded def _h5_layout(path: Path) -> str: From eebd1d6f4f928bc3c28e43816d75570d053790fd Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Sat, 22 Aug 2026 21:05:07 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 06/12] Chunk the materialize-and-score path to fit the 20 GiB scoring budget MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit The production materializer emits one full-length float64 household column per registry spec (32,842 distinct measures on the post-#741 surface — measured: registry compile itself peaks at 2.4 GiB, while the whole-registry materialization of the 57,240-household incumbent peaked near 29 GiB, ~2 x n_specs x n_households x 8 bytes, before it was killed). Both sides now materialize and score fixed contiguous registry chunks through the identical canonical calls (release._materialize_target_frame + score_targets), freeing each chunk's columns before the next. Recombination stays canonical: matrix rows and estimates are row-independent, so per-target numbers are bitwise what a one-shot run would produce, and the aggregate is one relative_error_loss evaluation — the single canonical loss definition — over the full combined vectors, with per-target attribution rows reproducing _target_loss_attribution.py's formulas under whole-registry weight normalization. A new test pins chunked-vs-one-shot bitwise equality (aggregate, fraction within 10%, and every attribution field) across chunk boundaries, including a zero-valued and a signed negative target. Boundary RSS receipts now print to stderr; JSON/Markdown bytes stay deterministic. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 --- .../test_us_release_head_to_head_scorer.py | 111 +++++- tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py | 331 +++++++++++++----- 2 files changed, 355 insertions(+), 87 deletions(-) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_release_head_to_head_scorer.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_release_head_to_head_scorer.py index aecb3d14..f1cc2531 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_release_head_to_head_scorer.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_release_head_to_head_scorer.py @@ -122,8 +122,8 @@ def _tiny_registry() -> TargetRegistry: ) -def _fixture_yardstick(module) -> object: - registry = _tiny_registry() +def _fixture_yardstick(module, registry=None) -> object: + registry = registry if registry is not None else _tiny_registry() release = module.release loss_weights = release._fiscal_target_loss_weights(registry) loss_basis = release._fiscal_target_loss_basis(registry, loss_weights) @@ -283,13 +283,13 @@ def test_scored_column_contract_refuses_silently_missing_columns() -> None: ) contract = module.scored_column_contract( - complete, registry, artifact_name="incumbent" + complete, registry.specs, artifact_name="incumbent" ) assert ("household", "m_income", "measure") in contract assert ("household", "n_flagged", "measure") in contract with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="lacks scored column"): - module.scored_column_contract(broken, registry, artifact_name="candidate") + module.scored_column_contract(broken, registry.specs, artifact_name="candidate") with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="differs from incumbent"): module._assert_identical_scored_contracts( {"incumbent": contract, "candidate": contract[:-1]} @@ -397,6 +397,109 @@ def _score_both() -> dict[str, object]: assert "no ACS-stacked origin rows" in markdown +def test_chunked_scoring_recombination_matches_one_shot(monkeypatch) -> None: + """Chunked materialize-and-score must reproduce a one-shot score_targets + + production attribution bitwise: same aggregate, same per-target rows.""" + + from microcosm.calibrate import score_targets + from microcosm.calibrate._target_loss_attribution import ( + assemble_target_loss_attribution, + ) + + module = _load_head_to_head_module() + _patch_release_seams(module, monkeypatch) + monkeypatch.setattr(module, "MATERIALIZE_SCORE_CHUNK_SPECS", 2) + registry = TargetRegistry( + [ + TargetSpec( + name=name, + entity="household", + value=value, + measure=measure, + period=2024, + source="fixture", + family="fixture_family", + signed=value < 0, + metadata=( + {"measure_mode": "indicator_sum"} if measure == "n_flagged" else {} + ), + ) + for name, measure, value in ( + ("five_income_a", "m_income", 5_000.0), + ("five_flagged_b", "n_flagged", 12.0), + ("five_income_c", "m_income", 7_100.0), + ("five_zero_d", "n_flagged", 0.0), + ("five_income_e", "m_income", -250.0), + ) + ], + country="us", + ) + yardstick = _fixture_yardstick(module, registry=registry) + frame = _tiny_frame(measure_values=(100.0, 300.0)) + artifact = module.LoadedArtifact( + frame=frame, + identity={ + "kind": "h5", + "filename": "five.h5", + "sha256": "d" * 64, + "size_bytes": 5, + }, + loader={"kind": "microcosm_entity_h5", "weight_kind": "calibrated"}, + h5_path=Path("/nonexistent/five.h5"), + ) + + payload, _ = module.score_loaded_artifact( + artifact=artifact, + artifact_name="incumbent", + yardstick=yardstick, + maximum_microsim_batch_size=None, + target_materialization_cache_dir=None, + ) + + one_shot = score_targets( + frame, + registry.to_target_set(), + target_loss_weights=yardstick.loss_weights, + target_loss_cap=module.release.US_FISCAL_TARGET_LOSS_CAP, + ) + attribution = assemble_target_loss_attribution(one_shot) + + chunking = payload["normalization_receipts"]["materialize_score_chunking"] + assert chunking["chunk_count"] == 3 + assert [chunk["spec_range"] for chunk in chunking["chunks"]] == [ + [0, 2], + [2, 4], + [4, 5], + ] + assert payload["fiscal"]["weighted_loss"] == float(one_shot.final_loss) + assert payload["fiscal"]["fraction_within_10pct"] == one_shot.fraction_within_10pct + rows = payload["fiscal"]["targets"] + assert len(rows) == 5 + for row, diagnostic, attribution_row in zip( + rows, + one_shot.diagnostics, + attribution.rows, + strict=True, + ): + assert row["actual"] == float(diagnostic.final_estimate) + assert row["target"] == float(diagnostic.target) + assert row["relative_error"] == float(diagnostic.relative_error) + assert row["target_loss_weight"] == attribution_row["target_loss_weight"] + assert ( + row["target_loss_weight_share"] + == attribution_row["target_loss_weight_share"] + ) + assert row["target_loss_scale"] == attribution_row["target_loss_scale"] + assert ( + row["capped_scaled_absolute_error"] + == attribution_row["final_capped_scaled_error"] + ) + assert ( + row["weighted_loss_contribution"] + == attribution_row["final_loss_contribution"] + ) + + def test_dropped_targets_fail_loudly_before_scoring(monkeypatch) -> None: module = _load_head_to_head_module() _patch_release_seams(module, monkeypatch) diff --git a/tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py b/tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py index 86671d0d..f58d8a1f 100644 --- a/tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py +++ b/tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py @@ -17,6 +17,19 @@ matrix, scoring, loss attribution, contract checks, and rendering path. Scoring is sequential and refuses a process peak at or above 20 GiB RSS. +The production materializer writes one full-length household column per +registry spec (32,842 distinct measures on the post-#741 surface), so a +whole-registry materialization of even a 57k-household artifact peaks near +2 x n_specs x n_households x 8 bytes — ~29 GiB observed. Both sides are +therefore materialized and scored in fixed contiguous registry chunks +through the identical canonical calls, and the per-target results are +recombined with the exact canonical aggregate: per-target rows are +row-independent (matrix rows and estimates never see other chunks), and +the aggregate is one `relative_error_loss` evaluation over the full +combined vectors — the single canonical loss definition every measurement +imports (packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/ +solve.py:471-537). + No gate, threshold, tolerance, or band is applied to the comparison: the output is evidence for the owner's flip decision, not a verdict. """ @@ -30,6 +43,7 @@ import math import resource import sys +import time from collections.abc import Mapping, Sequence from dataclasses import dataclass from pathlib import Path @@ -60,14 +74,19 @@ support_clone_index_column, ) from microcosm.calibrate import TargetRegistry, score_targets -from microcosm.calibrate._target_loss_attribution import ( - assemble_target_loss_attribution, -) +from microcosm.calibrate.solve import relative_error_loss from microcosm.frame import US_SCHEMA, Frame SCHEMA_VERSION = 2 MAX_RSS_BYTES = 20 * 1024**3 MARKDOWN_WORST_TARGET_ROWS = 50 +# Registry chunk size for materialize-and-score. The materializer emits one +# float64 household column per spec, so a chunk transiently costs about +# 2 x chunk x n_households x 8 bytes of column payload on top of the live +# microsimulation; 4,096 specs keeps a 57k-household artifact's peak well +# under the 20 GiB scoring budget. Chunk boundaries are fixed and +# content-independent, so output bytes are deterministic. +MATERIALIZE_SCORE_CHUNK_SPECS = 4_096 # The package resolver authority for the live US incumbent, read from # policyengine.py 5.0.3 (PyPI latest, tagged 2026-08-21) this lane session: @@ -117,11 +136,25 @@ "tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:344-348,5781-5814,6214-6290" ), "loss_aggregate": ( - "packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/solve.py:473-518" + "packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/solve.py:471-537 " + "(relative_error_loss, the single canonical loss definition)" + ), + "fraction_within_10pct": ( + "packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/solve.py:249-260" ), "loss_attribution": ( "packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/" - "_target_loss_attribution.py:103-212" + "_target_loss_attribution.py:143-176 (per-row capped error, weight " + "share, and contribution formulas, applied with whole-registry " + "weight normalization)" + ), + "chunked_materialize_score": ( + "tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py MATERIALIZE_SCORE_CHUNK_SPECS; " + "per-target rows are row-independent " + "(packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/" + "matrix.py:286-355 compiles one row per target; score.py:79-142 " + "evaluates estimates per row), and the aggregate is one " + "relative_error_loss call over the full combined vectors" ), "relative_error": ( "packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/score.py:25-51" @@ -266,6 +299,14 @@ def _peak_rss_bytes() -> int: def _assert_rss_below_limit(boundary: str) -> None: observed = _peak_rss_bytes() + # Operational receipt on stderr only; JSON/Markdown outputs stay + # byte-deterministic. + print( + f"[h2h {time.strftime('%Y-%m-%dT%H:%M:%SZ', time.gmtime())}] " + f"{boundary}: peak_rss={observed / 1024**3:.2f} GiB", + file=sys.stderr, + flush=True, + ) if observed >= MAX_RSS_BYTES: raise MemoryError( f"{boundary}: peak RSS {observed / 1024**3:.3f} GiB reached the " @@ -592,8 +633,9 @@ def _materialization_cache_context( } -def _materialize_full_registry( +def _materialize_chunk( frame: Frame, + chunk_specs: Sequence, yardstick: FiscalYardstick, *, artifact: LoadedArtifact, @@ -602,7 +644,7 @@ def _materialize_full_registry( ): return release._materialize_target_frame( frame, - yardstick.registry.specs, + chunk_specs, maximum_microsim_batch_size=maximum_microsim_batch_size, target_materialization_cache_dir=target_materialization_cache_dir, target_materialization_cache_context=( @@ -613,21 +655,21 @@ def _materialize_full_registry( ) -def _expected_target_keys(registry: TargetRegistry) -> tuple[tuple[str, object], ...]: - return tuple(spec.key for spec in registry.specs) +def _spec_keys(specs: Sequence) -> tuple[tuple[str, object], ...]: + return tuple(spec.key for spec in specs) def scored_column_contract( target_frame: Frame, - expected_registry: TargetRegistry, + specs: Sequence, *, artifact_name: str, ) -> tuple[tuple[str, str, str], ...]: - """Return and validate every entity/column/role used by the yardstick.""" + """Return and validate every entity/column/role used by the given specs.""" contract: set[tuple[str, str, str]] = set() missing: list[str] = [] - for spec in expected_registry.specs: + for spec in specs: table = target_frame.table(spec.entity) for role, column in (("measure", spec.measure), ("filter", spec.filter)): if column is None: @@ -658,57 +700,93 @@ def _assert_nothing_dropped( ) -def _assert_full_surface( +def _assert_full_chunk_surface( *, artifact_name: str, - yardstick: FiscalYardstick, + chunk_label: str, + chunk_specs: Sequence, materialized_registry: TargetRegistry, result, ) -> None: - expected = _expected_target_keys(yardstick.registry) - materialized = _expected_target_keys(materialized_registry) + expected = _spec_keys(chunk_specs) + materialized = _spec_keys(materialized_registry.specs) if materialized != expected: raise ValueError( - f"{artifact_name} materialized target contract differs from the " - f"yardstick: expected {len(expected)} ordered keys, got " - f"{len(materialized)}." + f"{artifact_name} {chunk_label} materialized target contract " + f"differs from the yardstick: expected {len(expected)} ordered " + f"keys, got {len(materialized)}." ) if result.skipped: examples = [ f"{item.target.row_name}: {item.reason}" for item in result.skipped[:20] ] raise ValueError( - f"{artifact_name} skipped {len(result.skipped)} target(s) in the " - f"constraint matrix: {examples}." + f"{artifact_name} {chunk_label} skipped {len(result.skipped)} " + f"target(s) in the constraint matrix: {examples}." ) problem_keys = tuple(target.key for target in result.problem.targets) if problem_keys != expected: raise ValueError( - f"{artifact_name} constraint-matrix target contract differs from " - "the full yardstick." + f"{artifact_name} {chunk_label} constraint-matrix target contract " + "differs from the yardstick." ) - expected_names = tuple(spec.to_target().row_name for spec in yardstick.registry) + expected_names = tuple(spec.to_target().row_name for spec in chunk_specs) diagnostic_names = tuple(row.name for row in result.diagnostics) if diagnostic_names != expected_names: raise ValueError( - f"{artifact_name} diagnostic row contract differs from the full yardstick." + f"{artifact_name} {chunk_label} diagnostic row contract differs " + "from the yardstick." ) -def _fiscal_rows( +def _fiscal_rows_and_aggregate( *, yardstick: FiscalYardstick, - result, -) -> list[dict[str, object]]: - attribution = assemble_target_loss_attribution(result) - rows: list[dict[str, object]] = [] - for spec, diagnostic, loss_row in zip( - yardstick.registry.specs, - result.diagnostics, - attribution.rows, - strict=True, + estimates: np.ndarray, + targets: np.ndarray, + scales: np.ndarray, +) -> tuple[list[dict[str, object]], dict[str, float]]: + """Build per-target rows and THE canonical aggregate over the full surface. + + Per-target quantities reproduce the production attribution row formulas + (_target_loss_attribution.py:143-176) with whole-registry weight + normalization; the aggregate is one relative_error_loss evaluation — the + same call a one-shot score_targets would make on identical vectors. + """ + + specs = yardstick.registry.specs + weights = np.asarray(yardstick.loss_weights, dtype=np.float64) + cap = float(release.US_FISCAL_TARGET_LOSS_CAP) + if not ( + len(specs) + == estimates.shape[0] + == targets.shape[0] + == scales.shape[0] + == weights.shape[0] ): - relative_error = float(diagnostic.relative_error) + raise RuntimeError("Combined scoring vectors do not align with the registry.") + aggregate_loss = relative_error_loss( + estimates, + targets, + target_loss_weights=weights, + target_loss_scales=scales, + target_loss_cap=cap, + ) + total_weight = float(weights.sum()) + within = 0 + rows: list[dict[str, object]] = [] + for index, spec in enumerate(specs): + target = float(targets[index]) + estimate = float(estimates[index]) + relative_error = ( + (estimate - target) / target if target != 0.0 else estimate - target + ) + if abs(relative_error) <= 0.10: + within += 1 + scale = float(scales[index]) + weight = float(weights[index]) + weight_share = weight / total_weight + capped_error = min(abs(estimate - target) / scale, cap) rows.append( { "name": spec.name, @@ -716,15 +794,15 @@ def _fiscal_rows( "entity": spec.entity, "family": spec.family, "value_basis": release._fiscal_target_value_basis(spec), - "target": float(diagnostic.target), - "actual": float(diagnostic.final_estimate), - "relative_error": relative_error, - "absolute_relative_error": abs(relative_error), - "target_loss_weight": loss_row["target_loss_weight"], - "target_loss_weight_share": loss_row["target_loss_weight_share"], - "target_loss_scale": loss_row["target_loss_scale"], - "capped_scaled_absolute_error": loss_row["final_capped_scaled_error"], - "weighted_loss_contribution": loss_row["final_loss_contribution"], + "target": target, + "actual": estimate, + "relative_error": float(relative_error), + "absolute_relative_error": abs(float(relative_error)), + "target_loss_weight": weight, + "target_loss_weight_share": weight_share, + "target_loss_scale": scale, + "capped_scaled_absolute_error": capped_error, + "weighted_loss_contribution": weight_share * capped_error, } ) contribution_sum = math.fsum( @@ -732,14 +810,17 @@ def _fiscal_rows( ) if not math.isclose( contribution_sum, - float(result.final_loss), + float(aggregate_loss), rel_tol=1e-12, abs_tol=1e-12, ): raise RuntimeError( "Fiscal row contributions do not reproduce the aggregate loss." ) - return rows + return rows, { + "weighted_loss": float(aggregate_loss), + "fraction_within_10pct": within / len(specs), + } def _battery_label(target: tuple[str, str, str, int]) -> str: @@ -950,39 +1031,107 @@ def score_loaded_artifact( mass_repair=mass_repair, ) health_gate = release._health_input_signal_gate(base_frame) - target_frame, materialized_registry, compilation = _materialize_full_registry( - base_frame, - yardstick, - artifact=artifact, - maximum_microsim_batch_size=maximum_microsim_batch_size, - target_materialization_cache_dir=target_materialization_cache_dir, - ) - _assert_rss_below_limit(f"after materializing {artifact_name}") - _assert_nothing_dropped(artifact_name=artifact_name, compilation=compilation) - contract = scored_column_contract( - target_frame, - yardstick.registry, - artifact_name=artifact_name, - ) - result = score_targets( - target_frame, - materialized_registry.to_target_set(), - target_loss_weights=yardstick.loss_weights, - target_loss_cap=release.US_FISCAL_TARGET_LOSS_CAP, - options={ - "mass": "existing_weights", - "target_loss_weighting": release.US_FISCAL_TARGET_LOSS_WEIGHTING, - "maximum_microsim_batch_size": maximum_microsim_batch_size, - }, - ) - _assert_full_surface( - artifact_name=artifact_name, + specs = yardstick.registry.specs + chunk_size = MATERIALIZE_SCORE_CHUNK_SPECS + chunk_count = max(1, math.ceil(len(specs) / chunk_size)) + contract_parts: set[tuple[str, str, str]] = set() + estimate_parts: list[np.ndarray] = [] + target_parts: list[np.ndarray] = [] + scale_parts: list[np.ndarray] = [] + diagnostic_names: list[str] = [] + chunk_receipts: list[dict[str, object]] = [] + household_count: int | None = None + nonzero_count: int | None = None + reference_weights: np.ndarray | None = None + for chunk_index in range(chunk_count): + start = chunk_index * chunk_size + chunk_specs = specs[start : start + chunk_size] + chunk_label = f"chunk {chunk_index + 1}/{chunk_count}" + target_frame, materialized_registry, compilation = _materialize_chunk( + base_frame, + chunk_specs, + yardstick, + artifact=artifact, + maximum_microsim_batch_size=maximum_microsim_batch_size, + target_materialization_cache_dir=target_materialization_cache_dir, + ) + _assert_nothing_dropped( + artifact_name=f"{artifact_name} {chunk_label}", + compilation=compilation, + ) + contract_parts.update( + scored_column_contract( + target_frame, + chunk_specs, + artifact_name=artifact_name, + ) + ) + result = score_targets( + target_frame, + materialized_registry.to_target_set(), + target_loss_weights=yardstick.loss_weights[start : start + chunk_size], + target_loss_cap=release.US_FISCAL_TARGET_LOSS_CAP, + options={ + "mass": "existing_weights", + "target_loss_weighting": release.US_FISCAL_TARGET_LOSS_WEIGHTING, + "maximum_microsim_batch_size": maximum_microsim_batch_size, + }, + ) + _assert_full_chunk_surface( + artifact_name=artifact_name, + chunk_label=chunk_label, + chunk_specs=chunk_specs, + materialized_registry=materialized_registry, + result=result, + ) + if reference_weights is None: + reference_weights = np.asarray(result.weights, dtype=np.float64) + household_count = int(result.weights.shape[0]) + nonzero_count = int(result.n_nonzero) + elif not np.array_equal( + reference_weights, np.asarray(result.weights, dtype=np.float64) + ): + raise RuntimeError( + f"{artifact_name} {chunk_label} scored a different household " + "weight vector than the first chunk." + ) + estimate_parts.append( + np.asarray( + [row.final_estimate for row in result.diagnostics], + dtype=np.float64, + ) + ) + target_parts.append( + np.asarray( + [row.target for row in result.diagnostics], + dtype=np.float64, + ) + ) + scale_parts.append(np.asarray(result.target_loss_scales, dtype=np.float64)) + diagnostic_names.extend(row.name for row in result.diagnostics) + chunk_receipts.append( + { + "chunk_index": chunk_index, + "spec_range": [start, start + len(chunk_specs)], + "target_compilation": dict(compilation), + } + ) + del target_frame, materialized_registry, result + gc.collect() + _assert_rss_below_limit(f"after scoring {artifact_name} {chunk_label}") + expected_names = [spec.to_target().row_name for spec in specs] + if diagnostic_names != expected_names: + raise RuntimeError( + f"{artifact_name} combined diagnostic rows do not reproduce the " + "full ordered registry surface." + ) + contract = tuple(sorted(contract_parts)) + rows, aggregate = _fiscal_rows_and_aggregate( yardstick=yardstick, - materialized_registry=materialized_registry, - result=result, + estimates=np.concatenate(estimate_parts), + targets=np.concatenate(target_parts), + scales=np.concatenate(scale_parts), ) - _assert_rss_below_limit(f"after scoring {artifact_name}") - rows = _fiscal_rows(yardstick=yardstick, result=result) payload = { "identity": dict(artifact.identity), "loader": dict(artifact.loader), @@ -992,10 +1141,10 @@ def score_loaded_artifact( "columns": [list(item) for item in contract], }, "fiscal": { - "weighted_loss": float(result.final_loss), - "fraction_within_10pct": float(result.fraction_within_10pct), - "household_count": int(result.weights.shape[0]), - "nonzero_household_weight_count": int(result.n_nonzero), + "weighted_loss": aggregate["weighted_loss"], + "fraction_within_10pct": aggregate["fraction_within_10pct"], + "household_count": household_count, + "nonzero_household_weight_count": nonzero_count, "target_count": len(rows), "targets": rows, }, @@ -1013,7 +1162,23 @@ def score_loaded_artifact( "failures": list(health_gate.failures), "details": dict(health_gate.details), }, - "target_compilation": dict(compilation), + "materialize_score_chunking": { + "chunk_size_specs": chunk_size, + "chunk_count": chunk_count, + "reason": ( + "the materializer emits one household column per spec, so " + "a whole-registry pass would peak near 2 x n_specs x " + "n_households x 8 bytes; chunks keep the identical " + "canonical calls under the 20 GiB scoring budget" + ), + "recombination": ( + "per-target rows are row-independent; the aggregate is " + "one relative_error_loss call over the full combined " + "vectors" + ), + "code_citation": _CODE_CITATIONS["chunked_materialize_score"], + "chunks": chunk_receipts, + }, }, } return payload, contract From 8226f376099782bfe7fe559b45045ab63337331e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Sat, 22 Aug 2026 23:13:48 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 07/12] Make replacement scorecard artifact-complete and memory bounded --- PROGRESS.md | 56 +- _LANE-NOTES.md | 36 + .../src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/h5_io.py | 76 +- .../build/us_runtime/stacked_spine.py | 147 +++- .../tests/test_us_multispine_pool_h5_io.py | 72 ++ .../test_us_release_head_to_head_scorer.py | 285 ++++-- .../tests/test_us_stacked_spine.py | 41 + tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py | 832 +++++++++++++----- 8 files changed, 1240 insertions(+), 305 deletions(-) diff --git a/PROGRESS.md b/PROGRESS.md index c5a1a686..36f2a852 100644 --- a/PROGRESS.md +++ b/PROGRESS.md @@ -2,12 +2,13 @@ ## State -The `replacement-scorecard` lane is active. The task: one head-to-head -scoring path for the live US incumbent and the not-yet-built 25% bundle-mode -candidate, score the incumbent now, and leave the owner the exact candidate -command. The scorer (`tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py`) and its test -file are committed with green affected suites; the incumbent scoring run is -the current step. +The `replacement-scorecard` lane is active. The scorer now has one role-neutral +path for the live US incumbent and either a finished-H5 or authenticated-pool +candidate. Fiscal scoring streams fixed registry chunks across fixed household +slices, and a gate-failed current stacked publication remains authenticated +scorecard evidence without being promoted to simulation-ready. The incumbent +scoring run, result artifacts, owner handoff, final suite, and final report +remain. No pool build, push, gate change, threshold change, or band change has occurred. `ps ax | grep build_us_multispine_pool` is checked before every @@ -15,7 +16,13 @@ scoring step. ## Done -- `uv sync --all-packages --extra us` complete; environment normal. +- `UV_CACHE_DIR=/tmp/microcosm-scorecard-uv-cache uv sync --all-packages + --extra us` complete (the sandbox forbids the default user cache). +- Inspected all four salvage snapshots. The newest snapshot `5577ee4c` exactly + matched the inherited uncommitted scorer; its household-slicing direction + was retained deliberately, then replaced with slice-local scoring because + assembling 8,192 full-pool measure arrays would exceed 20 GiB on a 25% + dense pool. - Verified every symbol the salvaged draft imports and every cited mechanism against the code: compile surface (five inputs, no membership flags), dropped/skipped detection, sqrt–concept-budget–50/50 loss weights, capped @@ -35,17 +42,30 @@ scoring step. columns present on all three battery entities (person/tax_unit/spm_unit), **zero `acs` rows anywhere** → battery inapplicable with the observed empty-ACS-side reason. -- `tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py` + 7 contract/determinism/fixture - tests committed; head-to-head, state-files scorer, refresh-builder, - pool-h5-io, fiscal-targets, release-target-parity files green (428 tests); - ruff clean. `test_us_stacked_spine.py` runs long in the background as part - of full-suite validation (no package code was touched by this lane). +- Added an authenticated scoring-only pool loader. It accepts only the exact + current stacked `status=gate_failed` / `simulation_ready=false` pair while + retaining all manifest/diagnostics/H5 digest, schema, run-ID, materializer, + gate-alias, weight-kind, transition-authority, and row-count checks. The + production simulation-ready loader remains strict. +- Added a finished-artifact battery evaluator that retains the canonical + authority, 132-comparison surface, 369 scalar-leg contract, formulas, + support rules, and tolerances, but explicitly does not claim an assembly or + tail receipt. The one structural ACS group-quarters scope is reconstructed + from retained artifact columns and marked unauthenticated. +- Added loader-contract, missing-column, deterministic top-level fixture, + streaming-vs-one-shot, dense memory-plan, scalar-leg completeness, + origin-scope, pool-status, and metadata-free battery tests. The combined + focused run reached 18/19; its sole test-message mismatch was corrected and + the failed test reran green. Ruff, formatting, byte compilation, and + `git diff --check` pass. ## Next -- Check the build queue, then run the incumbent scoring (RSS < 20 GiB) with a - persistent `--target-materialization-cache-dir` so repeated bounded - invocations resume the 11 JCT reform vectors; commit - `experiments/replacement_scorecard/incumbent_48b9d479.{json,md}`. -- Record the owner's candidate command and the comparison doctrine in - `_LANE-NOTES.md`; finish full workspace suite; update `FINAL_REPORT.md`. +- Commit the coherent scorer/package reconciliation, merge the six newer + `origin/main` commits without discarding lane work, and rerun affected tests. +- Find a sandbox-permitted equivalent of the required build-process check + (`ps ax` itself is denied), then run incumbent scoring under 20 GiB and + commit `experiments/replacement_scorecard/incumbent_48b9d479.{json,md}`. +- Record the exact candidate command and comparison doctrine in + `_LANE-NOTES.md`, run the full workspace suite, and replace the stale + `FINAL_REPORT.md` with this lane's final evidence. diff --git a/_LANE-NOTES.md b/_LANE-NOTES.md index 8d569341..ba913133 100644 --- a/_LANE-NOTES.md +++ b/_LANE-NOTES.md @@ -178,6 +178,42 @@ refresh-builder, pool-h5-io, fiscal-targets, and release-target-parity files all green (428 tests); ruff check + format clean. +## 2026-08-22 — newest salvage reconciled; candidate boundary made scoreable + +- Inspected `refs/claude-salvage/replacement-scorecard-20260822-220105-73402` + (`5577ee4c`) and verified that its scorer blob exactly matched the inherited + uncommitted file. The salvage's household slicing was retained deliberately, + but its full-pool measure-array assembly was replaced: a 25% dense pool at + roughly 918,350 households would require about 56 GiB for one + 8,192-column float64 copy. The scorer now materializes and scores one fixed + household slice at a time, checks weights plus target/scale/name/column + contracts on every slice, accumulates the additive matrix/weight products in + fixed order, frees the slice, and checks RSS before continuing + (`tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py:654-852,1399-1477`; + `tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:3730-3750`; + `packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/score.py:79-142`). +- The production pool loader remains a readiness boundary. A separate + scorecard-evidence loader accepts the exact current stacked + `status=gate_failed` / `simulation_ready=false` pair without weakening any + manifest/diagnostics/H5 digest, schema, run-ID, materializer, terminal-alias, + transition-authority, weight-kind, or row-count authentication + (`packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/h5_io.py:371-588,719-869`). + This implements the owner's head-to-head ruling without relabeling a failed + candidate as simulation-ready. +- Finished entity H5s do not retain the stacked assembly/tail manifests. Their + battery path therefore evaluates the canonical authority, 132 comparisons, + 369 nominal scalar legs, clone-0 positive-weight scopes, metrics, support + rules, and tolerances as artifact evidence, while explicitly reporting + `production_receipt_authenticated=false`. The one structural ACS + group-quarters scope is derived from retained origin/clone/`TYPEHUGQ`/ + membership/tenure columns and marks assembly authentication false + (`packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/stacked_spine.py:7808-7897,11474-11492,11530-11898`). +- Validation: the combined focused run covered 19 scorer/pool/battery cases. + Eighteen passed; the only failure was an assertion matching the wrong error + wording, after which that corrected test reran green. Ruff check/format, + Python byte compilation, and `git diff --check` pass. No pool build, push, + gate edit, threshold edit, or band edit occurred. + --- # Historical: one-target-surface lane notes diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/h5_io.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/h5_io.py index fcd155d4..706ca354 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/h5_io.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/h5_io.py @@ -46,6 +46,7 @@ "US_MULTISPINE_POOL_MANIFEST_ARTIFACT_KIND", "US_MULTISPINE_POOL_MANIFEST_SCHEMA_VERSION", "US_STACKED_POOL_OPERATOR_ORDER", + "load_authenticated_us_multispine_pool_for_scoring", "load_legacy_calibrated_us_h5", "load_simulation_ready_us_multispine_pool", "load_simulation_ready_us_multispine_pool_manifest", @@ -371,8 +372,15 @@ def _load_authenticated_us_multispine_pool_manifest( path: str | Path, *, expected_manifest_sha256: str | None = None, + allow_terminal_gate_failure: bool = False, ) -> tuple[dict[str, object], AuthenticatedPoolH5]: - """Return the validated manifest and its authenticated pool-H5 identity.""" + """Return a validated manifest and its authenticated pool-H5 identity. + + By default this is the production readiness boundary. The scoring-only + caller may also authenticate a current stacked publication whose terminal + gates failed. That exception changes no digest, schema, run-ID, H5, + diagnostics, or gate-alias validation and never labels the artifact ready. + """ manifest_path = Path(path) manifest, manifest_sha256, _ = _read_json_object_with_identity( @@ -385,10 +393,15 @@ def _load_authenticated_us_multispine_pool_manifest( f"US multispine pool manifest {manifest_path} has an unsupported " "artifact binding." ) - if ( - manifest.get("simulation_ready") is not True - or manifest.get("status") != "simulation_ready" - ): + is_ready = ( + manifest.get("simulation_ready") is True + and manifest.get("status") == "simulation_ready" + ) + is_terminal_gate_failure = ( + manifest.get("simulation_ready") is False + and manifest.get("status") == "gate_failed" + ) + if not is_ready and not (allow_terminal_gate_failure and is_terminal_gate_failure): raise ValueError( f"US multispine pool manifest {manifest_path} is not simulation-ready." ) @@ -401,6 +414,12 @@ def _load_authenticated_us_multispine_pool_manifest( if envelope == "stacked" else _LEGACY_MULTISPINE_POOL_MANIFEST_SCHEMA_VERSION ) + if is_terminal_gate_failure and envelope != "stacked": + raise ValueError( + f"US multispine pool manifest {manifest_path} may expose a failed " + "terminal-gate publication for scoring only under the current " + "stacked envelope." + ) _validate_stacked_late_dag_manifest_binding( manifest, manifest_path=manifest_path, @@ -534,12 +553,12 @@ def _load_authenticated_us_multispine_pool_manifest( diagnostics.get("artifact_kind") != US_MULTISPINE_AGREEMENT_DIAGNOSTICS_ARTIFACT_KIND or diagnostics.get("schema_version") != expected_schema_version - or diagnostics.get("simulation_ready") is not True + or diagnostics.get("simulation_ready") != manifest.get("simulation_ready") or diagnostics.get("publication_run_id") != publication_run_id ): raise ValueError( f"US multispine pool diagnostics {diagnostics_path} do not match " - "the ready manifest publication." + "the authenticated manifest publication." ) manifest_agreement_gate = _mapping( manifest.get("agreement_gate"), @@ -560,7 +579,7 @@ def _load_authenticated_us_multispine_pool_manifest( if diagnostics_agreement_gate != manifest_agreement_gate: raise ValueError( f"US multispine pool diagnostics {diagnostics_path} agreement-gate " - "verdict does not match the ready manifest." + "verdict does not match the authenticated manifest." ) return manifest, AuthenticatedPoolH5( path=pool_path.resolve(), @@ -690,16 +709,55 @@ def load_simulation_ready_us_multispine_pool( immutable identity object for every downstream H5 consumer. """ + return _load_us_multispine_pool( + path, + expected_manifest_sha256=expected_manifest_sha256, + require_simulation_ready=True, + ) + + +def load_authenticated_us_multispine_pool_for_scoring( + path: str | Path, + *, + expected_manifest_sha256: str | None = None, +) -> tuple[Frame, dict[str, object], AuthenticatedPoolH5]: + """Load authenticated pool evidence without promoting failed gates. + + A current stacked publication with ``status=gate_failed`` and + ``simulation_ready=false`` remains useful as head-to-head evidence. This + loader accepts that exact status pair, authenticates the same manifest, + diagnostics, H5 bytes, run ID, terminal-gate aliases, and row counts as the + production loader, and preserves the failed receipt. It is deliberately + separate from :func:`load_simulation_ready_us_multispine_pool`, whose + readiness contract is unchanged. + """ + + return _load_us_multispine_pool( + path, + expected_manifest_sha256=expected_manifest_sha256, + require_simulation_ready=False, + ) + + +def _load_us_multispine_pool( + path: str | Path, + *, + expected_manifest_sha256: str | None, + require_simulation_ready: bool, +) -> tuple[Frame, dict[str, object], AuthenticatedPoolH5]: + """Shared authenticated H5 reconstruction for readiness and scoring.""" + manifest_path = Path(path) manifest, authenticated_pool_h5 = _load_authenticated_us_multispine_pool_manifest( manifest_path, expected_manifest_sha256=expected_manifest_sha256, + allow_terminal_gate_failure=not require_simulation_ready, ) agreement_gate = _mapping( manifest.get("agreement_gate"), label=f"US multispine pool manifest {manifest_path}.agreement_gate", ) - if agreement_gate.get("passed") is not True: + if require_simulation_ready and agreement_gate.get("passed") is not True: raise ValueError( f"US multispine pool manifest {manifest_path} has no passing " "agreement-gate verdict." diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/stacked_spine.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/stacked_spine.py index 6b4ffc1f..ab84d1c0 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/stacked_spine.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/stacked_spine.py @@ -7805,6 +7805,98 @@ def _gap_fill_absence_rule_mask( } +def _gap_fill_absence_rule_mask_artifact_evidence( + frame: Frame, + *, + direction: GapFillDirection, + rule: GapFillAbsenceRule, +) -> tuple[pd.Series, dict[str, object]]: + """Resolve the one structural scope from finished artifact columns only.""" + + if ( + rule.rule_id != _ACS_GQ_RENT_ABSENCE_RULE_ID + or rule.selection != _ACS_GQ_RENT_ABSENCE_SELECTION + or rule.entity != "person" + or rule.column != "pre_subsidy_rent" + or direction.recipient_channel != ACS_STACKED_SUPPORT_CHANNEL + ): + raise ValueError( + f"Gap-fill direction {direction.name!r} declares unsupported " + f"recipient absence rule {rule.rule_id!r}." + ) + household = frame.table("household") + person = frame.table("person") + required_household = { + "household_id", + "TYPEHUGQ", + "tenure_type", + support_channel_column("household"), + support_clone_index_column("household"), + } + required_person = { + "person_household_id", + support_channel_column("person"), + support_clone_index_column("person"), + } + missing_household = sorted(required_household - set(household)) + missing_person = sorted(required_person - set(person)) + if missing_household or missing_person: + raise ValueError( + f"Gap-fill absence rule {rule.rule_id!r} cannot resolve its " + "artifact-evidence universe; " + f"missing_household={missing_household}, missing_person={missing_person}." + ) + household_channel = household[support_channel_column("household")].astype(str) + household_clone = pd.to_numeric( + household[support_clone_index_column("household")], errors="raise" + ).astype("int64") + native_acs = household_channel.eq(ACS_STACKED_SUPPORT_CHANNEL) & ( + household_clone == 0 + ) + kind = pd.to_numeric(household["TYPEHUGQ"], errors="coerce") + invalid_kind = native_acs & ~kind.isin((1, 2, 3)) + if invalid_kind.any(): + raise ValueError( + f"Gap-fill absence rule {rule.rule_id!r} found " + f"{int(invalid_kind.sum())} native ACS household row(s) without " + "TYPEHUGQ 1/2/3." + ) + gq_households = native_acs & kind.isin((2, 3)) + nonnull_gq_tenure = gq_households & household["tenure_type"].notna() + if nonnull_gq_tenure.any(): + raise ValueError( + f"Gap-fill absence rule {rule.rule_id!r} found " + f"{int(nonnull_gq_tenure.sum())} ACS group-quarters household " + "row(s) with synthesized tenure." + ) + gq_household_ids = household.loc[gq_households, "household_id"] + person_channel = person[support_channel_column("person")].astype(str) + person_clone = pd.to_numeric( + person[support_clone_index_column("person")], errors="raise" + ).astype("int64") + mask = ( + person_channel.eq(ACS_STACKED_SUPPORT_CHANNEL) + & person_clone.eq(0) + & person["person_household_id"].isin(gq_household_ids) + ) + linked_counts = person.loc[mask, "person_household_id"].value_counts() + if len(linked_counts) != int(gq_households.sum()) or not linked_counts.eq(1).all(): + raise ValueError( + f"Gap-fill absence rule {rule.rule_id!r} artifact evidence does " + "not contain exactly one native ACS person per group-quarters " + "household." + ) + return mask, { + "rule_id": rule.rule_id, + "selection": rule.selection, + "reason": rule.reason, + "status": "observed_structural_absence_artifact_evidence", + "assembly_manifest_authenticated": False, + "rows": int(mask.sum()), + "by_origin_role": {f"{ACS_STACKED_SUPPORT_CHANNEL}/clone_0": int(mask.sum())}, + } + + def _origin_projection(frame: Frame, *, channel: str) -> Frame: """Project one origin's native lineages as a standalone donor frame.""" @@ -11375,6 +11467,28 @@ def by_origin_battery( authority=_production_stacked_authority(), production=True, tail_manifest=tail_manifest, + authenticate_stacked_artifact=True, + ) + + +def by_origin_battery_artifact_evidence(frame: Frame) -> GateResult: + """Evaluate canonical battery formulas on finished artifact columns. + + A released entity-table H5 does not preserve the assembly manifest or a + clone-2 tail manifest. Those receipts authenticate how a production frame + was built; they do not change the clone-0, positive-weight ASEC-vs-ACS + formulas. This evidence-only seam therefore uses the exact production + authority, surface, support rules, metrics, and tolerances while skipping + only assembly/tail authentication. Callers must not represent its result + as an authenticated production gate receipt. + """ + + return _by_origin_battery_evaluate( + frame, + authority=_production_stacked_authority(), + production=True, + tail_manifest=None, + authenticate_stacked_artifact=False, ) @@ -11392,6 +11506,7 @@ def _by_origin_battery_with_test_authority( authority=authority, production=False, tail_manifest=tail_manifest, + authenticate_stacked_artifact=True, ) @@ -11418,6 +11533,7 @@ def _by_origin_battery_evaluate( authority: _StackedAuthority, production: bool, tail_manifest: Mapping[str, object] | None = None, + authenticate_stacked_artifact: bool = True, _canonical_gap_fill_plan: tuple[ GapFillDirection, ... ] = CANONICAL_STACKED_GAP_FILL_PLAN, @@ -11441,10 +11557,14 @@ def _by_origin_battery_evaluate( both origins carry ample support. """ - tail_support_receipt = _terminal_tail_support_gate_receipt( - frame, - tail_manifest, - boundary="by-origin battery", + tail_support_receipt = ( + _terminal_tail_support_gate_receipt( + frame, + tail_manifest, + boundary="by-origin battery", + ) + if authenticate_stacked_artifact + else None ) authority_receipt = _authority_receipt(authority) specs = _battery_specs_from_metric_registry(authority.metric_registry) @@ -11506,7 +11626,8 @@ def _by_origin_battery_evaluate( ), }, ) - validate_stacked_spine_frame(frame, boundary="by-origin battery") + if authenticate_stacked_artifact: + validate_stacked_spine_frame(frame, boundary="by-origin battery") failures: list[str] = [] comparisons: dict[str, object] = {} @@ -11545,10 +11666,18 @@ def _by_origin_battery_evaluate( structural_rule = declared_absence_rules.get((spec.entity, column)) if structural_rule is not None: rule_direction, rule = structural_rule - structural_mask, structural_receipt = _gap_fill_absence_rule_mask( - frame, - direction=rule_direction, - rule=rule, + structural_mask, structural_receipt = ( + _gap_fill_absence_rule_mask( + frame, + direction=rule_direction, + rule=rule, + ) + if authenticate_stacked_artifact + else _gap_fill_absence_rule_mask_artifact_evidence( + frame, + direction=rule_direction, + rule=rule, + ) ) scoped_structural = structural_mask.to_numpy(dtype=bool) & scope scoped_null_mask = series.isna().to_numpy(dtype=bool) & scope diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_multispine_pool_h5_io.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_multispine_pool_h5_io.py index 8f5dc55e..5ee991ea 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_multispine_pool_h5_io.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_multispine_pool_h5_io.py @@ -27,6 +27,7 @@ US_MULTISPINE_POOL_MANIFEST_SCHEMA_VERSION, US_STACKED_POOL_OPERATOR_ORDER, AuthenticatedPoolH5MismatchError, + load_authenticated_us_multispine_pool_for_scoring, load_simulation_ready_us_multispine_pool, write_nullable_us_h5, ) @@ -1013,6 +1014,77 @@ def test_ready_stacked_pool_loader_binds_terminal_gate_aliases( ) +def test_scoring_pool_loader_authenticates_failed_stacked_terminal_receipt( + tmp_path: Path, +) -> None: + pytest.importorskip("tables") + manifest_path = _write_ready_pool(tmp_path, stacked=True) + manifest = json.loads(manifest_path.read_text(encoding="utf-8")) + diagnostics_path = Path(manifest["agreement_diagnostics"]["path"]) + diagnostics = json.loads(diagnostics_path.read_text(encoding="utf-8")) + failed_gate = { + "passed": False, + "gates": { + "us_spine_agreement": { + "passed": False, + "failures": ["fixture terminal failure"], + "details": {"fixture": False}, + } + }, + } + manifest.update( + { + "status": "gate_failed", + "simulation_ready": False, + "agreement_gate": failed_gate, + "terminal_gates": failed_gate, + } + ) + diagnostics.update( + { + "simulation_ready": False, + "agreement_gate": failed_gate, + "terminal_gates": failed_gate, + } + ) + diagnostics_path.write_text(json.dumps(diagnostics), encoding="utf-8") + manifest["agreement_diagnostics"]["sha256"] = _sha256(diagnostics_path) + manifest_path.write_text(json.dumps(manifest), encoding="utf-8") + + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="not simulation-ready"): + load_simulation_ready_us_multispine_pool(manifest_path) + + frame, loaded_manifest, authenticated_h5 = ( + load_authenticated_us_multispine_pool_for_scoring(manifest_path) + ) + + assert frame.n("household") == 3 + assert loaded_manifest["status"] == "gate_failed" + assert loaded_manifest["simulation_ready"] is False + assert loaded_manifest["terminal_gates"]["passed"] is False + assert authenticated_h5.sha256 == loaded_manifest["pool_h5"]["sha256"] + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize( + ("status", "simulation_ready"), + (("simulation_ready", False), ("gate_failed", True), ("unknown", False)), +) +def test_scoring_pool_loader_rejects_incoherent_publication_status( + tmp_path: Path, + status: str, + simulation_ready: bool, +) -> None: + pytest.importorskip("tables") + manifest_path = _write_ready_pool(tmp_path, stacked=True) + manifest = json.loads(manifest_path.read_text(encoding="utf-8")) + manifest["status"] = status + manifest["simulation_ready"] = simulation_ready + manifest_path.write_text(json.dumps(manifest), encoding="utf-8") + + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="not simulation-ready"): + load_authenticated_us_multispine_pool_for_scoring(manifest_path) + + @pytest.mark.parametrize("location", ("manifest", "h5")) @pytest.mark.parametrize("value", (None, 1, True)) def test_ready_stacked_pool_loader_requires_exact_h5_materializer_binding( diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_release_head_to_head_scorer.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_release_head_to_head_scorer.py index f1cc2531..988fa1a3 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_release_head_to_head_scorer.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_release_head_to_head_scorer.py @@ -20,6 +20,7 @@ import pandas as pd import pytest +from microcosm.build.us_runtime.h5_io import write_nullable_us_h5 from microcosm.calibrate import TargetRegistry from microcosm.calibrate.registry import TargetSpec from microcosm.frame import US_SCHEMA, Frame, WeightKind, Weights @@ -206,6 +207,46 @@ def _stub_cd_probe(h5_path): monkeypatch.setattr(release, "_read_cd_vintage_support_provenance", _stub_cd_probe) +def _complete_battery_comparisons(module) -> dict[str, dict[str, object]]: + comparisons: dict[str, dict[str, object]] = {} + for label, row in module._canonical_battery_contract().items(): + metric = row["metric"] + if metric == "boolean_incidence": + receipt = { + "status": "tested", + "metric": metric, + "asec_incidence": 0.5, + "acs_incidence": 0.5, + "incidence_ratio_acs_over_asec": 1.0, + } + elif metric == "categorical_tvd": + receipt = { + "status": "tested", + "metric": metric, + "total_variation_distance": 0.0, + "category_shares": { + "asec": {"fixture": 1.0}, + "acs": {"fixture": 1.0}, + }, + } + else: + receipt = { + "status": "tested", + "metric": metric, + "legs": { + sign: { + "asec_incidence": 0.5, + "acs_incidence": 0.5, + "incidence_ratio_acs_over_asec": 1.0, + "quantile_envelope_distance": 0.0, + } + for sign in ("positive", "negative") + }, + } + comparisons[label] = receipt + return comparisons + + def test_head_to_head_signature_has_no_target_membership_switches() -> None: module = _load_head_to_head_module() @@ -217,11 +258,30 @@ def test_head_to_head_signature_has_no_target_membership_switches() -> None: "allow_unaged_dollar_targets", "congressional_district_vintage_crosswalk", "maximum_microsim_batch_size", - "target_materialization_cache_dir", "candidate_manifest_sha256", } +def test_dense_candidate_streaming_plan_is_independent_of_total_pool_size() -> None: + module = _load_head_to_head_module() + dense_25pct_households = 918_350 + + planned = module._streaming_target_column_payload_upper_bound_bytes( + total_households=dense_25pct_households, + household_slice_size=5_000, + chunk_spec_count=module.MATERIALIZE_SCORE_CHUNK_SPECS, + ) + one_dense_copy = ( + dense_25pct_households + * module.MATERIALIZE_SCORE_CHUNK_SPECS + * np.dtype(np.float64).itemsize + ) + + assert planned < 1024**3 + assert planned < module.MAX_RSS_BYTES + assert one_dense_copy > module.MAX_RSS_BYTES + + def test_canonical_battery_contract_matches_production_registries() -> None: module = _load_head_to_head_module() @@ -232,6 +292,13 @@ def test_canonical_battery_contract_matches_production_registries() -> None: assert single == 131 assert joint == 1 assert len(contract) == single + joint + assert sum(len(row["metric_legs"]) for row in contract.values()) == 369 + assert ( + sum(row["metric"] == "monetary_sign_separated" for row in contract.values()) + == 79 + ) + assert sum(row["metric"] == "boolean_incidence" for row in contract.values()) == 48 + assert sum(row["metric"] == "categorical_tvd" for row in contract.values()) == 5 assert ( "person/source_operator_immigration/" "joint[ssn_card_type,immigration_status_str][clone_0]" in contract @@ -240,9 +307,27 @@ def test_canonical_battery_contract_matches_production_registries() -> None: assert row["metric_legs"] == list(module._metric_legs(row["metric"])) -def test_observed_origin_battery_is_evidence_not_assertion() -> None: +def test_observed_origin_battery_is_evidence_not_assertion(monkeypatch) -> None: module = _load_head_to_head_module() + monkeypatch.setattr( + module, + "materialize_multispine_agreement_outputs", + lambda frame: SimpleNamespace( + frame=frame, + receipt={"persisted_to_artifact": False}, + ), + ) + monkeypatch.setattr( + module, + "by_origin_battery_artifact_evidence", + lambda frame: SimpleNamespace( + passed=True, + failures=(), + details={"comparisons": _complete_battery_comparisons(module)}, + ), + ) + no_columns = module._battery_payload_from_observed_origins( _tiny_frame(measure_values=(1.0, 2.0), channels=None) ) @@ -256,18 +341,77 @@ def test_observed_origin_battery_is_evidence_not_assertion() -> None: assert no_columns["status"] == "inapplicable" assert "no support-channel" in no_columns["reason"] assert asec_only["status"] == "inapplicable" - assert "no ACS-stacked origin rows" in asec_only["reason"] + assert "empty ACS side" in asec_only["reason"] assert asec_only["observed_origins"]["total_acs_rows"] == 0 assert asec_only["observed_origins"]["entities"]["person"]["asec_rows"] == 2 - assert both_origins["status"] == "inapplicable" - assert "authenticated pool manifest" in both_origins["reason"] - for payload in (no_columns, asec_only, both_origins): + assert both_origins["status"] == "computed_finished_h5" + assert both_origins["production_receipt_authenticated"] is False + assert both_origins["metric_leg_count"] == 369 + assert both_origins["scalar_leg_status_counts"] == {"computed": 369} + for payload in (no_columns, asec_only): assert payload["comparison_count"] == 132 assert all( row["status"] == "inapplicable" for row in payload["comparisons"].values() ) +def test_pool_battery_receipt_refuses_a_silently_missing_scalar_leg() -> None: + module = _load_head_to_head_module() + comparisons = _complete_battery_comparisons(module) + label = next( + label + for label, row in comparisons.items() + if row["metric"] == "boolean_incidence" + ) + del comparisons[label]["incidence_ratio_acs_over_asec"] + terminal_gates = { + "gates": { + "us_by_origin_battery": { + "passed": True, + "failures": [], + "details": {"comparisons": comparisons}, + } + } + } + + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="omits computed leg"): + module._battery_payload_from_pool_receipt(terminal_gates) + + +def test_origin_probe_uses_clone_zero_positive_weight_scope() -> None: + module = _load_head_to_head_module() + frame = _tiny_frame(measure_values=(1.0, 2.0), channels=("acs", "asec")) + tables = {entity: frame.table(entity).copy() for entity in frame.entities} + for entity in ("person", "tax_unit", "spm_unit"): + tables[entity].loc[tables[entity].index[0], f"{entity}_support_clone_index"] = 1 + clone_scoped = Frame( + tables, + US_SCHEMA, + {"household": frame.weights_for("household")}, + ) + zero_weight_scoped = Frame( + {entity: frame.table(entity).copy() for entity in frame.entities}, + US_SCHEMA, + { + "household": Weights( + np.asarray([0.0, 20.0], dtype="float64"), + WeightKind.CALIBRATED, + ) + }, + ) + + observed_by_clone = module._observed_origin_receipt(clone_scoped) + observed_by_weight = module._observed_origin_receipt(zero_weight_scoped) + + for observed in (observed_by_clone, observed_by_weight): + assert observed["total_acs_rows"] == 0 + assert observed["total_asec_rows"] == 3 + for entity in ("person", "tax_unit", "spm_unit"): + receipt = observed["entities"][entity] + assert receipt["raw_origin_row_counts"] == {"acs": 1, "asec": 1} + assert receipt["origin_row_counts"] == {"asec": 1} + + def test_scored_column_contract_refuses_silently_missing_columns() -> None: module = _load_head_to_head_module() registry = _tiny_registry() @@ -296,6 +440,65 @@ def test_scored_column_contract_refuses_silently_missing_columns() -> None: ) +def test_incumbent_and_candidate_h5_loaders_preserve_scored_contract( + tmp_path: Path, +) -> None: + pytest.importorskip("tables") + module = _load_head_to_head_module() + registry = _tiny_registry() + incumbent_path = tmp_path / "incumbent.h5" + candidate_path = tmp_path / "candidate.h5" + broken_path = tmp_path / "candidate_missing_measure.h5" + incumbent_frame = _tiny_frame(measure_values=(1.0, 2.0)) + candidate_frame = _tiny_frame(measure_values=(3.0, 4.0)) + broken_tables = { + entity: candidate_frame.table(entity).copy() + for entity in candidate_frame.entities + } + broken_tables["household"] = broken_tables["household"].drop(columns=["n_flagged"]) + broken_frame = Frame( + broken_tables, + US_SCHEMA, + {"household": candidate_frame.weights_for("household")}, + ) + for path, frame in ( + (incumbent_path, incumbent_frame), + (candidate_path, candidate_frame), + (broken_path, broken_frame), + ): + write_nullable_us_h5( + frame, + path, + period=2024, + artifact_kind="replacement_scorecard_fixture", + ) + + incumbent = module.load_artifact(incumbent_path) + candidate = module.load_artifact(candidate_path) + broken = module.load_artifact(broken_path) + incumbent_contract = module.scored_column_contract( + incumbent.frame, + registry.specs, + artifact_name="incumbent", + ) + candidate_contract = module.scored_column_contract( + candidate.frame, + registry.specs, + artifact_name="candidate", + ) + + module._assert_identical_scored_contracts( + {"incumbent": incumbent_contract, "candidate": candidate_contract} + ) + assert incumbent.loader["kind"] == candidate.loader["kind"] + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="lacks scored column"): + module.scored_column_contract( + broken.frame, + registry.specs, + artifact_name="candidate", + ) + + def test_fixture_end_to_end_is_deterministic_and_shares_one_path( monkeypatch, tmp_path ) -> None: @@ -308,52 +511,24 @@ def test_fixture_end_to_end_is_deterministic_and_shares_one_path( candidate = _fixture_artifact( module, sha256="b" * 64, measure_values=(200.0, 290.0) ) + incumbent_path = Path("/fixture/incumbent.h5") + candidate_path = Path("/fixture/candidate.h5") + artifacts = {incumbent_path: incumbent, candidate_path: candidate} + monkeypatch.setattr(module, "compile_yardstick", lambda **kwargs: yardstick) + monkeypatch.setattr( + module, + "load_artifact", + lambda path, **kwargs: artifacts[path], + ) def _score_both() -> dict[str, object]: - artifacts: dict[str, dict[str, object]] = {} - contracts: dict[str, tuple] = {} - for name, artifact in (("incumbent", incumbent), ("candidate", candidate)): - payload, contract = module.score_loaded_artifact( - artifact=artifact, - artifact_name=name, - yardstick=yardstick, - maximum_microsim_batch_size=None, - target_materialization_cache_dir=None, - ) - artifacts[name] = payload - contracts[name] = contract - module._assert_identical_scored_contracts(contracts) - return { - "schema_version": module.SCHEMA_VERSION, - "yardstick": { - "fiscal_registry": dict(yardstick.identity), - "fiscal_aggregate": { - "name": module.release.US_FISCAL_TARGET_LOSS_WEIGHTING, - "target_loss_cap": module.release.US_FISCAL_TARGET_LOSS_CAP, - "loss_basis": dict(yardstick.loss_basis), - "weighting_rule": "fixture", - "family_multipliers": None, - "code_citations": [], - }, - "relative_error": {"rule": "fixture", "code_citation": "fixture"}, - "terminal_battery": { - "by_origin_only": True, - "single_column_comparison_count": 131, - "joint_comparison_count": 1, - "comparison_count": 132, - "metric_leg_count": 0, - "code_citations": [], - }, - "code_citations": dict(module._CODE_CITATIONS), - }, - "artifacts": { - "incumbent": artifacts["incumbent"], - "candidate": artifacts["candidate"], - }, - "comparison": module._comparison_payload( - artifacts["incumbent"], artifacts["candidate"] - ), - } + return module.score_head_to_head( + incumbent=incumbent_path, + candidate=candidate_path, + ledger_facts=Path("/fixture/facts.jsonl"), + congressional_district_vintage_crosswalk=Path("/fixture/crosswalk.parquet"), + maximum_microsim_batch_size=1, + ) payload_one = _score_both() payload_two = _score_both() @@ -394,7 +569,7 @@ def _score_both() -> dict[str, object]: assert path_one.read_bytes() == path_two.read_bytes() markdown = first[1].read_text() assert "US release replacement scorecard" in markdown - assert "no ACS-stacked origin rows" in markdown + assert "empty ACS side" in markdown def test_chunked_scoring_recombination_matches_one_shot(monkeypatch) -> None: @@ -452,8 +627,7 @@ def test_chunked_scoring_recombination_matches_one_shot(monkeypatch) -> None: artifact=artifact, artifact_name="incumbent", yardstick=yardstick, - maximum_microsim_batch_size=None, - target_materialization_cache_dir=None, + maximum_microsim_batch_size=1, ) one_shot = score_targets( @@ -471,6 +645,10 @@ def test_chunked_scoring_recombination_matches_one_shot(monkeypatch) -> None: [2, 4], [4, 5], ] + assert all( + chunk["target_compilation"]["household_slices"] == 2 + for chunk in chunking["chunks"] + ) assert payload["fiscal"]["weighted_loss"] == float(one_shot.final_loss) assert payload["fiscal"]["fraction_within_10pct"] == one_shot.fraction_within_10pct rows = payload["fiscal"]["targets"] @@ -528,7 +706,6 @@ def _dropping_materialize(frame, specs, **kwargs): artifact_name="incumbent", yardstick=_fixture_yardstick(module), maximum_microsim_batch_size=None, - target_materialization_cache_dir=None, ) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_stacked_spine.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_stacked_spine.py index 4e1b8f9a..183b0172 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_stacked_spine.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_stacked_spine.py @@ -80,6 +80,7 @@ OriginBatterySpec, assemble_stacked_spine, by_origin_battery, + by_origin_battery_artifact_evidence, gap_fill_stacked_spine, run_stacked_puf_pass, sample_acs_households, @@ -6925,6 +6926,46 @@ def test_completeness_receipts_bind_live_authority_per_target() -> None: GateReport((forged_result,)).to_manifest() +def test_artifact_battery_uses_canonical_formulas_without_assembly_metadata() -> None: + frame = _battery_frame( + { + "taxable_interest_income": ( + np.asarray([100.0] * 8), + np.asarray([100.0] * 11), + ) + } + ) + canonical = by_origin_battery(frame) + assert canonical.passed, canonical.failures + metadata_free = Frame( + {entity: frame.table(entity) for entity in frame.entities}, + frame.schema, + {entity: frame.weights_for(entity) for entity in frame.weighted_entities}, + frame.strata, + ) + + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="assembly manifest"): + by_origin_battery(metadata_free) + + evidence = by_origin_battery_artifact_evidence(metadata_free) + + assert evidence.passed == canonical.passed + assert evidence.failures == canonical.failures + assert evidence.details["authority"] == canonical.details["authority"] + assert evidence.details["tolerances"] == canonical.details["tolerances"] + canonical_comparisons = deepcopy(canonical.details["comparisons"]) + evidence_comparisons = deepcopy(evidence.details["comparisons"]) + artifact_absence_receipts = [] + for comparisons in (canonical_comparisons, evidence_comparisons): + for comparison in comparisons.values(): + receipt = comparison.pop("recipient_absence_authority", None) + if comparisons is evidence_comparisons and isinstance(receipt, Mapping): + artifact_absence_receipts.append(receipt) + assert evidence_comparisons == canonical_comparisons + assert len(artifact_absence_receipts) == 1 + assert artifact_absence_receipts[0]["assembly_manifest_authenticated"] is False + + def test_self_digested_partial_authority_cannot_forge_production_identity() -> None: surface = {"person": {"test_only": ("unemployment_compensation",)}} forged = stacked_spine_module._make_stacked_authority( diff --git a/tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py b/tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py index f58d8a1f..de265d11 100644 --- a/tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py +++ b/tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py @@ -8,27 +8,41 @@ artifact's own shipped weights with production's concept-budgeted amount/count loss; and * the terminal by-origin battery: reported from an authenticated pool - manifest receipt when the artifact is a pool, and reported as observed - inapplicability (never synthesized, never faked) when the artifact carries - no evaluable ASEC-vs-ACS surface. + manifest receipt when the artifact is a pool, computed on an ephemeral + terminal gate view for a finished H5 carrying both origins, and reported as + observed inapplicability (never synthesized, never faked) when the artifact + carries no evaluable ASEC-vs-ACS surface. Artifacts differ only at the loading boundary. Both normalized frames pass through the same population repair, target materialization, constraint matrix, scoring, loss attribution, contract checks, and rendering path. Scoring is sequential and refuses a process peak at or above 20 GiB RSS. -The production materializer writes one full-length household column per -registry spec (32,842 distinct measures on the post-#741 surface), so a -whole-registry materialization of even a 57k-household artifact peaks near -2 x n_specs x n_households x 8 bytes — ~29 GiB observed. Both sides are -therefore materialized and scored in fixed contiguous registry chunks -through the identical canonical calls, and the per-target results are -recombined with the exact canonical aggregate: per-target rows are -row-independent (matrix rows and estimates never see other chunks), and -the aggregate is one `relative_error_loss` evaluation over the full -combined vectors — the single canonical loss definition every measurement -imports (packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/ -solve.py:471-537). +Memory design, from measurements on the live incumbent (57,240 households, +166,321 persons): the unbatched full-frame base microsimulation alone peaks +at ~31 GiB (the federal income-tax DAG holds every intermediate array), and +the materializer additionally emits one full-length float64 household +column per registry spec (32,842 distinct measures post-#741, ~15 GB +whole-registry). Neither fits the 20 GiB scoring budget, so both sides run +the same two-axis decomposition through unmodified canonical calls: + +* households are sliced with the production reform-sweep batching machinery + (`_household_position_batches` + `_select_households_by_position`, + tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:3730-3750), and each slice is + materialized and scored through the canonical calls before it is freed; +* registry specs are scored in fixed contiguous chunks. A chunk's estimates + are additive matrix products, so slice estimates are accumulated in fixed + household order; targets, scales, names, and scored-column contracts must + be identical on every slice. No chunk-wide dense household-by-measure table + is assembled. The aggregate is one `relative_error_loss` evaluation over + the full combined vectors — the single canonical loss definition every + measurement imports (packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/ + solve.py:471-537). + +The per-measure reform-vector cache is refused under household slicing: +its identity is (context, measure, n_households), so equal-sized slices of +one artifact would collide into one cache entry and poison each other +(tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:1717-1739). No gate, threshold, tolerance, or band is applied to the comparison: the output is evidence for the owner's flip decision, not a verdict. @@ -51,6 +65,7 @@ import build_us_fiscal_refresh_release as release import h5py import numpy as np +import pandas as pd import score_us_fiscal_targets as fiscal_scorer from microcosm.build.us_runtime.congressional_district_vintage import ( @@ -60,13 +75,17 @@ from microcosm.build.us_runtime.h5_io import ( US_MULTISPINE_POOL_H5_ARTIFACT_KIND, AuthenticatedPoolH5, - load_simulation_ready_us_multispine_pool, + load_authenticated_us_multispine_pool_for_scoring, read_nullable_us_h5_metadata, ) +from microcosm.build.us_runtime.multispine_pool import ( + materialize_multispine_agreement_outputs, +) from microcosm.build.us_runtime.stacked_spine import ( ACS_STACKED_SUPPORT_CHANNEL, CANONICAL_ORIGIN_BATTERY_JOINT_METRIC_REGISTRY, CANONICAL_ORIGIN_BATTERY_METRIC_REGISTRY, + by_origin_battery_artifact_evidence, ) from microcosm.build.us_runtime.support_provenance import ( BASE_ASEC_SUPPORT_CHANNEL, @@ -80,13 +99,15 @@ SCHEMA_VERSION = 2 MAX_RSS_BYTES = 20 * 1024**3 MARKDOWN_WORST_TARGET_ROWS = 50 -# Registry chunk size for materialize-and-score. The materializer emits one -# float64 household column per spec, so a chunk transiently costs about -# 2 x chunk x n_households x 8 bytes of column payload on top of the live -# microsimulation; 4,096 specs keeps a 57k-household artifact's peak well -# under the 20 GiB scoring budget. Chunk boundaries are fixed and -# content-independent, so output bytes are deterministic. -MATERIALIZE_SCORE_CHUNK_SPECS = 4_096 +# Registry chunk size for streaming materialize-and-score. The target-column +# payload is bounded by the household slice, never total artifact size. Three +# float64-sized copies per cell conservatively cover materialized columns, +# matrix storage, and scoring temporaries: 8,192 x 5,000 x 8 x 3 is under +# 1 GiB, on top of one live household-slice microsimulation. Chunk and slice +# boundaries are fixed and content-independent, so output bytes are +# deterministic. +MATERIALIZE_SCORE_CHUNK_SPECS = 8_192 +_STREAMING_TARGET_COLUMN_COPIES = 3 # The package resolver authority for the live US incumbent, read from # policyengine.py 5.0.3 (PyPI latest, tagged 2026-08-21) this lane session: @@ -94,14 +115,15 @@ # dataset, resolve_managed_dataset_reference(country, dataset=None) returns # manifest.default_dataset_uri, and dataset overlays are additive-only so # they can never shadow the default. -# policyengine.py@5.0.3 src/policyengine/data/bundle/manifest.json -# data_releases.us.{default_dataset,certified_data_artifact,data_package} -# policyengine.py@5.0.3 src/policyengine/provenance/manifest.py:181-187 -# (default_dataset_uri), :270-299 (_apply_dataset_overlays no-shadow), -# :301-320 (get_release_manifest), :540-561 +# policyengine.py@5.0.3 src/policyengine/data/bundle/manifest.json:113-140, +# 156-160,181-189 (US artifact, default, and model pins) +# policyengine.py@5.0.3 src/policyengine/provenance/manifest.py:180-187 +# (default_dataset_uri), :270-299 (overlay no-shadow), :301-318 +# (get_release_manifest), :540-560 # (resolve_managed_dataset_reference default path) _POLICYENGINE_LIVE_US_INCUMBENT = { "policyengine_version": "5.0.3", + "policyengine_source_commit": "cfdd128fc316e07ef54c182f2149fac217e8706f", "bundle_id": "us-5.0.3", "data_producer": "populace", "default_dataset": "populace_us_2024", @@ -111,6 +133,7 @@ "revision": "populace-us-2024-buildp-sparse-rmloss100-cae8640-20260728T011454Z", "filename": "populace_us_2024.h5", "sha256": "48b9d479fb4fd1c3537f9383ce4697d130b6f618658409d74f6233c43b994c7e", + "resolved_hf_commit": "26dcad66867687f15735dc4926523e3741920836", "certified_for_model_version": "1.764.6", } @@ -124,7 +147,7 @@ "legacy_flat_loader": "tools/score_us_fiscal_targets.py:240-333", "pool_manifest_authentication": ( "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/" - "h5_io.py:348-430,672-811" + "h5_io.py:371-588,719-869" ), "materialization_drop_detection": ( "tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:4323-4350" @@ -133,10 +156,11 @@ "packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/matrix.py:286-355" ), "loss_weighting": ( - "tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:344-348,5781-5814,6214-6290" + "tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:344-348,481-516,5781-5814,6214-6290" ), "loss_aggregate": ( - "packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/solve.py:471-537 " + "packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/solve.py:" + "471-537,576-600 " "(relative_error_loss, the single canonical loss definition)" ), "fraction_within_10pct": ( @@ -149,12 +173,10 @@ "weight normalization)" ), "chunked_materialize_score": ( - "tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py MATERIALIZE_SCORE_CHUNK_SPECS; " - "per-target rows are row-independent " - "(packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/" - "matrix.py:286-355 compiles one row per target; score.py:79-142 " - "evaluates estimates per row), and the aggregate is one " - "relative_error_loss call over the full combined vectors" + "tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py:654-852,1399-1477; " + "tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:3730-3750; " + "packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/" + "matrix.py:286-355; score.py:79-142" ), "relative_error": ( "packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/score.py:25-51" @@ -165,11 +187,18 @@ ), "battery_origin_masks": ( "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/" - "stacked_spine.py:11523-11533,11577-11580,11695-11703" + "stacked_spine.py:11644-11709,11824-11832" ), "battery_receipt_keys": ( "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/" - "stacked_spine.py:11819-11973" + "stacked_spine.py:11948-12154" + ), + "battery_finished_h5_materialization": ( + "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/" + "multispine_pool.py:3137-3215 (ephemeral SSI gate view); " + "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/" + "stacked_spine.py:7808-7897,11474-11492,11530-11898 " + "(finished-artifact evidence seam and canonical evaluator)" ), "battery_channel_constants": ( "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/" @@ -178,16 +207,18 @@ "stacked_spine.py:263" ), "pool_battery_persistence": ( - "tools/build_us_multispine_pool.py:3533-3540,3766-3776; " + "tools/build_us_multispine_pool.py:3263-3334,3533-3550,3766-3786; " "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/gates.py:690-700" ), "cd_provenance_check": ( "tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:2519-2567,2570-2597" ), "incumbent_package_resolution": ( - "policyengine.py@5.0.3 src/policyengine/data/bundle/manifest.json " - "data_releases.us; src/policyengine/provenance/manifest.py:181-187," - "270-299,301-320,540-561" + "policyengine.py@5.0.3 src/policyengine/data/bundle/manifest.json:" + "113-140,156-160,181-189; src/policyengine/provenance/manifest.py:" + "180-187,270-299,301-318,540-560; src/policyengine/provenance/" + "dataset_sources.py:57-74,77-117; src/policyengine/" + "tax_benefit_models/us/model.py:423-462" ), } @@ -214,6 +245,18 @@ class FiscalYardstick: identity: Mapping[str, object] +@dataclass(frozen=True) +class ScoredChunk: + """One fixed registry chunk reduced across fixed household slices.""" + + estimates: np.ndarray + targets: np.ndarray + scales: np.ndarray + diagnostic_names: tuple[str, ...] + scored_contract: tuple[tuple[str, str, str], ...] + compilation: Mapping[str, object] + + def _parse_args(argv: Sequence[str] | None = None) -> argparse.Namespace: parser = argparse.ArgumentParser( description=( @@ -265,11 +308,6 @@ def _parse_args(argv: Sequence[str] | None = None) -> argparse.Namespace: type=int, default=release.DEFAULT_MAXIMUM_MICROSIM_BATCH_SIZE, ) - parser.add_argument( - "--target-materialization-cache-dir", - type=Path, - default=None, - ) return parser.parse_args(argv) @@ -372,7 +410,7 @@ def _load_pool_manifest( *, expected_manifest_sha256: str | None, ) -> LoadedArtifact: - frame, manifest, authenticated = load_simulation_ready_us_multispine_pool( + frame, manifest, authenticated = load_authenticated_us_multispine_pool_for_scoring( manifest_path, expected_manifest_sha256=expected_manifest_sha256, ) @@ -380,7 +418,7 @@ def _load_pool_manifest( if not isinstance(terminal_gates, Mapping): raise ValueError( f"Authenticated pool manifest {manifest_path} has no terminal_gates " - "receipt; a simulation-ready stacked pool always seals one." + "receipt; a current stacked publication always seals one." ) identity = { "kind": "authenticated_pool", @@ -396,8 +434,10 @@ def _load_pool_manifest( frame=frame, identity=identity, loader={ - "kind": "authenticated_pool_manifest", + "kind": "authenticated_pool_manifest_for_scoring", "weight_kind": frame.weights_for("household").kind.value, + "publication_status": manifest.get("status"), + "simulation_ready": manifest.get("simulation_ready"), }, h5_path=authenticated.path, terminal_gates=terminal_gates, @@ -610,48 +650,204 @@ def _validate_cd_provenance( } -def _materialization_cache_context( - artifact: LoadedArtifact, - yardstick: FiscalYardstick, -) -> dict[str, object]: - return { - "base_dataset_sha256": artifact.identity["sha256"], - "build_commit": release._git_output("rev-parse", "HEAD"), - "policyengine_us_version": release._package_or_workspace_version( - "policyengine-us" - ), - "seed": 0, - "target_period": release.PERIOD, - "target_registry_version": yardstick.registry.version, - # Scorer vectors declare no release materializer identity: the - # explicit None is identity-distinct from every release digest, - # so scorer and release vectors can never mix (PR #557). - "target_frame_materializer_identity_sha256": None, - "congressional_district_vintage_crosswalk_sha256": _crosswalk_metadata( - yardstick - )["sha256"], - } +def _streaming_target_column_payload_upper_bound_bytes( + *, + total_households: int, + household_slice_size: int | None, + chunk_spec_count: int, +) -> int: + """Conservative dense target-column payload bound for one live slice.""" + + if total_households < 0 or chunk_spec_count < 0: + raise ValueError("Streaming memory dimensions must be non-negative.") + if household_slice_size is None or household_slice_size <= 0: + live_households = total_households + else: + live_households = min(total_households, household_slice_size) + return ( + live_households + * chunk_spec_count + * np.dtype(np.float64).itemsize + * _STREAMING_TARGET_COLUMN_COPIES + ) -def _materialize_chunk( - frame: Frame, +def _score_chunk_household_sliced( + base_frame: Frame, chunk_specs: Sequence, - yardstick: FiscalYardstick, *, - artifact: LoadedArtifact, + chunk_loss_weights: np.ndarray, + artifact_name: str, + chunk_label: str, maximum_microsim_batch_size: int | None, - target_materialization_cache_dir: Path | None, -): - return release._materialize_target_frame( - frame, - chunk_specs, - maximum_microsim_batch_size=maximum_microsim_batch_size, - target_materialization_cache_dir=target_materialization_cache_dir, - target_materialization_cache_context=( - _materialization_cache_context(artifact, yardstick) - if target_materialization_cache_dir is not None - else None - ), +) -> ScoredChunk: + """Materialize, score, and reduce one chunk without a dense full-pool table. + + Each household slice runs the unmodified canonical materializer and + scorer. A target estimate is a matrix-row/weight dot product, so the full + artifact estimate is the fixed-order sum of slice estimates. Every slice + must reproduce the exact target, scale, diagnostic-name, and scored-column + contracts before its estimates may enter that sum. + """ + + n_households = base_frame.n("household") + expected_keys = _spec_keys(chunk_specs) + slice_batches = tuple( + release._household_position_batches( + n_households, + maximum_microsim_batch_size, + ) + ) + if not slice_batches: + raise ValueError(f"{artifact_name} has no households to score.") + accumulated_estimates: np.ndarray | None = None + reference_targets: np.ndarray | None = None + reference_scales: np.ndarray | None = None + reference_names: tuple[str, ...] | None = None + reference_contract: tuple[tuple[str, str, str], ...] | None = None + first_compilation: dict[str, object] | None = None + compilation_digests: list[str] = [] + slice_sizes: list[int] = [] + for slice_index, positions in enumerate(slice_batches): + slice_label = f"{chunk_label} slice {slice_index + 1}/{len(slice_batches)}" + full_slice = len(positions) == n_households + slice_frame = ( + base_frame + if full_slice + else release._select_households_by_position(base_frame, positions) + ) + slice_target_frame, slice_registry, slice_compilation = ( + release._materialize_target_frame( + slice_frame, + chunk_specs, + maximum_microsim_batch_size=maximum_microsim_batch_size, + target_materialization_cache_dir=None, + target_materialization_cache_context=None, + ) + ) + _assert_nothing_dropped( + artifact_name=f"{artifact_name} {slice_label}", + compilation=slice_compilation, + ) + if first_compilation is None: + first_compilation = dict(slice_compilation) + compilation_digests.append(_canonical_sha256(dict(slice_compilation))) + slice_sizes.append(len(positions)) + if _spec_keys(slice_registry.specs) != expected_keys: + raise ValueError( + f"{artifact_name} {slice_label} compiled a different target " + "contract than the chunk." + ) + if slice_target_frame.n("household") != len(positions): + raise RuntimeError( + f"{artifact_name} {slice_label} returned " + f"{slice_target_frame.n('household')} households for {len(positions)} " + "positions." + ) + slice_contract = scored_column_contract( + slice_target_frame, + chunk_specs, + artifact_name=f"{artifact_name} {slice_label}", + ) + result = score_targets( + slice_target_frame, + slice_registry.to_target_set(), + target_loss_weights=chunk_loss_weights, + target_loss_cap=release.US_FISCAL_TARGET_LOSS_CAP, + options={ + "mass": "existing_weights", + "target_loss_weighting": release.US_FISCAL_TARGET_LOSS_WEIGHTING, + "maximum_microsim_batch_size": maximum_microsim_batch_size, + }, + ) + _assert_full_chunk_surface( + artifact_name=artifact_name, + chunk_label=slice_label, + chunk_specs=chunk_specs, + materialized_registry=slice_registry, + result=result, + ) + expected_slice_weights = np.asarray( + slice_frame.weights_for("household").values, + dtype=np.float64, + ) + if not np.array_equal( + expected_slice_weights, + np.asarray(result.weights, dtype=np.float64), + ): + raise RuntimeError( + f"{artifact_name} {slice_label} scorer changed the shipped " + "household weight vector." + ) + estimates = np.asarray( + [row.final_estimate for row in result.diagnostics], + dtype=np.float64, + ) + targets = np.asarray( + [row.target for row in result.diagnostics], + dtype=np.float64, + ) + scales = np.asarray(result.target_loss_scales, dtype=np.float64) + names = tuple(row.name for row in result.diagnostics) + if accumulated_estimates is None: + accumulated_estimates = estimates.copy() + reference_targets = targets.copy() + reference_scales = scales.copy() + reference_names = names + reference_contract = slice_contract + else: + if not np.array_equal(reference_targets, targets): + raise RuntimeError( + f"{artifact_name} {slice_label} target vector differs from " + "the first household slice." + ) + if not np.array_equal(reference_scales, scales): + raise RuntimeError( + f"{artifact_name} {slice_label} loss-scale vector differs " + "from the first household slice." + ) + if reference_names != names: + raise RuntimeError( + f"{artifact_name} {slice_label} diagnostic names differ " + "from the first household slice." + ) + if reference_contract != slice_contract: + raise RuntimeError( + f"{artifact_name} {slice_label} scored-column contract " + "differs from the first household slice." + ) + np.add(accumulated_estimates, estimates, out=accumulated_estimates) + del slice_target_frame, slice_registry, result + if not full_slice: + del slice_frame + gc.collect() + _assert_rss_below_limit(f"after scoring {artifact_name} {slice_label}") + if any( + value is None + for value in ( + accumulated_estimates, + reference_targets, + reference_scales, + reference_names, + reference_contract, + first_compilation, + ) + ): # pragma: no cover - non-empty batches are enforced above + raise RuntimeError(f"{artifact_name} {chunk_label} produced no slice result.") + compilation = { + **first_compilation, + "household_slices": len(slice_batches), + "household_slice_size": maximum_microsim_batch_size, + "household_slice_row_counts": slice_sizes, + "slice_compilation_sha256s": compilation_digests, + } + return ScoredChunk( + estimates=accumulated_estimates, + targets=reference_targets, + scales=reference_scales, + diagnostic_names=reference_names, + scored_contract=reference_contract, + compilation=compilation, ) @@ -879,7 +1075,7 @@ def _battery_entities() -> tuple[str, ...]: def _observed_origin_receipt(frame: Frame) -> dict[str, object]: - """Count each battery entity's rows per support channel, from the frame.""" + """Count battery-origin rows in the canonical clone-0/positive-weight scope.""" receipt: dict[str, object] = {} entities_missing_columns: list[str] = [] @@ -893,18 +1089,30 @@ def _observed_origin_receipt(frame: Frame) -> dict[str, object]: entities_missing_columns.append(entity) receipt[entity] = {"provenance_columns_present": False} continue - counts = { + raw_counts = { str(channel): int(count) for channel, count in table[channel_column] .astype(str) .value_counts() .items() } - asec_rows = counts.get(BASE_ASEC_SUPPORT_CHANNEL, 0) - acs_rows = counts.get(ACS_STACKED_SUPPORT_CHANNEL, 0) + clone_index = pd.to_numeric(table[clone_column], errors="raise").astype("int64") + weights = np.asarray(frame.resolve_weights(entity).values, dtype=np.float64) + scope = clone_index.eq(0).to_numpy() & (weights > 0.0) + scoped_counts = { + str(channel): int(count) + for channel, count in table.loc[scope, channel_column] + .astype(str) + .value_counts() + .items() + } + asec_rows = scoped_counts.get(BASE_ASEC_SUPPORT_CHANNEL, 0) + acs_rows = scoped_counts.get(ACS_STACKED_SUPPORT_CHANNEL, 0) receipt[entity] = { "provenance_columns_present": True, - "origin_row_counts": dict(sorted(counts.items())), + "scope": {"clone_index": 0, "positive_weight_only": True}, + "origin_row_counts": dict(sorted(scoped_counts.items())), + "raw_origin_row_counts": dict(sorted(raw_counts.items())), "asec_rows": asec_rows, "acs_rows": acs_rows, } @@ -918,8 +1126,182 @@ def _observed_origin_receipt(frame: Frame) -> dict[str, object]: } -def _battery_payload_from_observed_origins(frame: Frame) -> dict[str, object]: +def _unavailable_scalar_legs( + contract_row: Mapping[str, object], + *, + status: str, +) -> list[dict[str, object]]: + return [ + {"name": name, "status": status, "value": None} + for name in contract_row["metric_legs"] + ] + + +def _normalized_scalar_legs( + *, + label: str, + contract_row: Mapping[str, object], + receipt: Mapping[str, object], +) -> list[dict[str, object]]: + """Validate and flatten every nominal terminal-battery scalar leg.""" + + metric = str(contract_row["metric"]) + status = str(receipt.get("status") or "missing_status") + if status != "tested": + return _unavailable_scalar_legs(contract_row, status=status) + if metric == "boolean_incidence": + key = "incidence_ratio_acs_over_asec" + if key not in receipt: + raise ValueError( + f"Battery comparison {label!r} omits computed leg {key!r}." + ) + return [{"name": key, "status": "computed", "value": receipt[key]}] + if metric == "categorical_tvd": + key = "total_variation_distance" + if key not in receipt: + raise ValueError( + f"Battery comparison {label!r} omits computed leg {key!r}." + ) + return [{"name": key, "status": "computed", "value": receipt[key]}] + if metric != "monetary_sign_separated": # pragma: no cover - contract guards + raise ValueError(f"Unknown canonical terminal-battery metric {metric!r}.") + sign_receipts = receipt.get("legs") + if not isinstance(sign_receipts, Mapping) or set(sign_receipts) != { + "positive", + "negative", + }: + raise ValueError( + f"Battery comparison {label!r} must carry exact positive/negative " + "monetary leg receipts." + ) + scalar_legs: list[dict[str, object]] = [] + for sign in ("positive", "negative"): + sign_receipt = sign_receipts[sign] + if not isinstance(sign_receipt, Mapping): + raise ValueError(f"Battery comparison {label!r}/{sign} is not an object.") + incidence_name = f"{sign}_incidence_ratio_acs_over_asec" + quantile_name = f"{sign}_quantile_envelope_distance" + sign_status = str(sign_receipt.get("status") or "computed") + if sign_status == "absent_on_both_origins": + scalar_legs.extend( + ( + {"name": incidence_name, "status": sign_status, "value": None}, + {"name": quantile_name, "status": sign_status, "value": None}, + ) + ) + continue + incidence_key = "incidence_ratio_acs_over_asec" + if incidence_key not in sign_receipt: + raise ValueError( + f"Battery comparison {label!r}/{sign} omits computed incidence leg." + ) + scalar_legs.append( + { + "name": incidence_name, + "status": "computed", + "value": sign_receipt[incidence_key], + } + ) + if "quantile_envelope_distance" in sign_receipt: + scalar_legs.append( + { + "name": quantile_name, + "status": "computed", + "value": sign_receipt["quantile_envelope_distance"], + } + ) + elif sign_receipt.get("quantile_envelope") == "leg_insufficient_support": + scalar_legs.append( + { + "name": quantile_name, + "status": "insufficient_support", + "value": None, + } + ) + else: + raise ValueError( + f"Battery comparison {label!r}/{sign} omits its quantile leg " + "value or explicit insufficient-support status." + ) + expected = list(contract_row["metric_legs"]) + if [row["name"] for row in scalar_legs] != expected: + raise RuntimeError(f"Battery comparison {label!r} scalar-leg order drifted.") + return scalar_legs + + +def _normalize_battery_comparisons( + comparisons: Mapping[str, object], +) -> dict[str, dict[str, object]]: contract = _canonical_battery_contract() + missing = sorted(set(contract) - set(comparisons)) + extra = sorted(set(comparisons) - set(contract)) + if missing or extra: + raise ValueError( + "Terminal battery does not exactly cover the canonical contract; " + f"missing={missing[:20]}, extra={extra[:20]}." + ) + normalized: dict[str, dict[str, object]] = {} + for label, contract_row in contract.items(): + receipt = comparisons[label] + if not isinstance(receipt, Mapping): + raise ValueError(f"Battery comparison {label!r} is not an object.") + if receipt.get("metric") != contract_row["metric"]: + raise ValueError( + f"Battery comparison {label!r} metric {receipt.get('metric')!r} " + f"does not match canonical {contract_row['metric']!r}." + ) + normalized[label] = { + **contract_row, + **dict(receipt), + "scalar_legs": _normalized_scalar_legs( + label=label, + contract_row=contract_row, + receipt=receipt, + ), + } + return normalized + + +def _scalar_leg_status_counts( + comparisons: Mapping[str, Mapping[str, object]], +) -> dict[str, int]: + counts: dict[str, int] = {} + for comparison in comparisons.values(): + for leg in comparison["scalar_legs"]: + status = str(leg["status"]) + counts[status] = counts.get(status, 0) + 1 + return dict(sorted(counts.items())) + + +def _inapplicable_battery_payload( + *, + reason: str, + observed: Mapping[str, object], +) -> dict[str, object]: + contract = _canonical_battery_contract() + comparisons = _normalize_battery_comparisons( + { + label: { + **row, + "status": "inapplicable", + "reason": reason, + } + for label, row in contract.items() + } + ) + return { + "status": "inapplicable", + "by_origin_only": True, + "reason": reason, + "observed_origins": dict(observed), + "comparison_count": len(contract), + "metric_leg_count": sum(len(row["metric_legs"]) for row in contract.values()), + "scalar_leg_status_counts": _scalar_leg_status_counts(comparisons), + "comparisons": comparisons, + } + + +def _battery_payload_from_observed_origins(frame: Frame) -> dict[str, object]: observed = _observed_origin_receipt(frame) if observed["entities_missing_provenance_columns"]: reason = ( @@ -927,40 +1309,58 @@ def _battery_payload_from_observed_origins(frame: Frame) -> dict[str, object]: f"{observed['entities_missing_provenance_columns']}; the by-origin " "battery cannot scope its ASEC/ACS masks" ) - elif observed["total_acs_rows"] == 0: + return _inapplicable_battery_payload(reason=reason, observed=observed) + if observed["total_asec_rows"] == 0: reason = ( - "artifact carries no ACS-stacked origin rows (observed channels " - "are listed in observed_origins); the ASEC-vs-ACS battery has an " - "empty ACS side and is definitionally inapplicable" + "artifact carries no positive-weight clone-0 ASEC origin rows " + "(observed channels are listed in observed_origins); the " + "ASEC-vs-ACS battery has an empty ASEC side and is definitionally " + "inapplicable" ) - else: + return _inapplicable_battery_payload(reason=reason, observed=observed) + elif observed["total_acs_rows"] == 0: reason = ( - "both origins are present, but by-origin battery evidence for a " - "finished artifact is accepted only from an authenticated pool " - "manifest receipt; pass the pool manifest instead of the bare H5" + "artifact carries no positive-weight clone-0 ACS-stacked origin " + "rows (observed channels are listed in observed_origins); the " + "ASEC-vs-ACS battery has an empty ACS side and is definitionally " + "inapplicable" ) + return _inapplicable_battery_payload(reason=reason, observed=observed) + + if "ssi" in frame.table("person"): + evaluation_frame = frame + materialization_receipt: Mapping[str, object] = { + "mode": "artifact_already_carried_ssi" + } + else: + materialized = materialize_multispine_agreement_outputs(frame) + evaluation_frame = materialized.frame + materialization_receipt = dict(materialized.receipt) + gate = by_origin_battery_artifact_evidence(evaluation_frame) + raw_comparisons = gate.details.get("comparisons") + if not isinstance(raw_comparisons, Mapping): + raise ValueError("Computed by-origin battery has no comparisons receipt.") + comparisons = _normalize_battery_comparisons(raw_comparisons) return { - "status": "inapplicable", + "status": "computed_finished_h5", "by_origin_only": True, - "reason": reason, + "production_receipt_authenticated": False, + "gate_passed": gate.passed, + "failures": list(gate.failures), "observed_origins": observed, - "comparison_count": len(contract), - "metric_leg_count": sum(len(row["metric_legs"]) for row in contract.values()), - "comparisons": { - label: { - **row, - "status": "inapplicable", - "reason": reason, - } - for label, row in contract.items() - }, + "ephemeral_gate_view_materialization": dict(materialization_receipt), + "comparison_count": len(comparisons), + "metric_leg_count": sum( + len(row["scalar_legs"]) for row in comparisons.values() + ), + "scalar_leg_status_counts": _scalar_leg_status_counts(comparisons), + "comparisons": comparisons, } def _battery_payload_from_pool_receipt( terminal_gates: Mapping[str, object], ) -> dict[str, object]: - contract = _canonical_battery_contract() gates = terminal_gates.get("gates") if not isinstance(gates, Mapping): raise ValueError("Authenticated pool terminal_gates has no gates object.") @@ -975,34 +1375,16 @@ def _battery_payload_from_pool_receipt( raise ValueError( "Authenticated pool by-origin battery has no comparisons receipt." ) - missing = sorted(set(contract) - set(comparisons)) - extra = sorted(set(comparisons) - set(contract)) - if missing or extra: - raise ValueError( - "Authenticated pool terminal battery does not exactly cover the " - f"canonical contract; missing={missing[:20]}, extra={extra[:20]}." - ) - normalized: dict[str, object] = {} - for label, contract_row in contract.items(): - receipt = comparisons[label] - if not isinstance(receipt, Mapping): - raise ValueError(f"Battery comparison {label!r} is not an object.") - if receipt.get("metric") != contract_row["metric"]: - raise ValueError( - f"Battery comparison {label!r} metric {receipt.get('metric')!r} " - f"does not match canonical {contract_row['metric']!r}." - ) - normalized[label] = { - **contract_row, - **dict(receipt), - } + normalized = _normalize_battery_comparisons(comparisons) return { "status": "authenticated_pool_receipt", "by_origin_only": True, + "production_receipt_authenticated": True, "gate_passed": battery.get("passed"), "failures": list(battery.get("failures") or ()), - "comparison_count": len(contract), - "metric_leg_count": sum(len(row["metric_legs"]) for row in contract.values()), + "comparison_count": len(normalized), + "metric_leg_count": sum(len(row["scalar_legs"]) for row in normalized.values()), + "scalar_leg_status_counts": _scalar_leg_status_counts(normalized), "comparisons": normalized, } @@ -1019,7 +1401,6 @@ def score_loaded_artifact( artifact_name: str, yardstick: FiscalYardstick, maximum_microsim_batch_size: int | None, - target_materialization_cache_dir: Path | None, ) -> tuple[dict[str, object], tuple[tuple[str, str, str], ...]]: """Run the common scoring path for one already-normalized artifact.""" @@ -1040,83 +1421,44 @@ def score_loaded_artifact( scale_parts: list[np.ndarray] = [] diagnostic_names: list[str] = [] chunk_receipts: list[dict[str, object]] = [] - household_count: int | None = None - nonzero_count: int | None = None - reference_weights: np.ndarray | None = None + base_weights = np.asarray( + base_frame.weights_for("household").values, + dtype=np.float64, + ) + household_count = int(base_weights.shape[0]) + nonzero_count = int(np.count_nonzero(base_weights)) for chunk_index in range(chunk_count): start = chunk_index * chunk_size chunk_specs = specs[start : start + chunk_size] chunk_label = f"chunk {chunk_index + 1}/{chunk_count}" - target_frame, materialized_registry, compilation = _materialize_chunk( + scored_chunk = _score_chunk_household_sliced( base_frame, chunk_specs, - yardstick, - artifact=artifact, + chunk_loss_weights=np.asarray( + yardstick.loss_weights[start : start + len(chunk_specs)], + dtype=np.float64, + ), + artifact_name=artifact_name, + chunk_label=chunk_label, maximum_microsim_batch_size=maximum_microsim_batch_size, - target_materialization_cache_dir=target_materialization_cache_dir, ) _assert_nothing_dropped( artifact_name=f"{artifact_name} {chunk_label}", - compilation=compilation, - ) - contract_parts.update( - scored_column_contract( - target_frame, - chunk_specs, - artifact_name=artifact_name, - ) + compilation=scored_chunk.compilation, ) - result = score_targets( - target_frame, - materialized_registry.to_target_set(), - target_loss_weights=yardstick.loss_weights[start : start + chunk_size], - target_loss_cap=release.US_FISCAL_TARGET_LOSS_CAP, - options={ - "mass": "existing_weights", - "target_loss_weighting": release.US_FISCAL_TARGET_LOSS_WEIGHTING, - "maximum_microsim_batch_size": maximum_microsim_batch_size, - }, - ) - _assert_full_chunk_surface( - artifact_name=artifact_name, - chunk_label=chunk_label, - chunk_specs=chunk_specs, - materialized_registry=materialized_registry, - result=result, - ) - if reference_weights is None: - reference_weights = np.asarray(result.weights, dtype=np.float64) - household_count = int(result.weights.shape[0]) - nonzero_count = int(result.n_nonzero) - elif not np.array_equal( - reference_weights, np.asarray(result.weights, dtype=np.float64) - ): - raise RuntimeError( - f"{artifact_name} {chunk_label} scored a different household " - "weight vector than the first chunk." - ) - estimate_parts.append( - np.asarray( - [row.final_estimate for row in result.diagnostics], - dtype=np.float64, - ) - ) - target_parts.append( - np.asarray( - [row.target for row in result.diagnostics], - dtype=np.float64, - ) - ) - scale_parts.append(np.asarray(result.target_loss_scales, dtype=np.float64)) - diagnostic_names.extend(row.name for row in result.diagnostics) + contract_parts.update(scored_chunk.scored_contract) + estimate_parts.append(scored_chunk.estimates) + target_parts.append(scored_chunk.targets) + scale_parts.append(scored_chunk.scales) + diagnostic_names.extend(scored_chunk.diagnostic_names) chunk_receipts.append( { "chunk_index": chunk_index, "spec_range": [start, start + len(chunk_specs)], - "target_compilation": dict(compilation), + "target_compilation": dict(scored_chunk.compilation), } ) - del target_frame, materialized_registry, result + del scored_chunk gc.collect() _assert_rss_below_limit(f"after scoring {artifact_name} {chunk_label}") expected_names = [spec.to_target().row_name for spec in specs] @@ -1165,16 +1507,26 @@ def score_loaded_artifact( "materialize_score_chunking": { "chunk_size_specs": chunk_size, "chunk_count": chunk_count, + "household_count": household_count, + "household_slice_size": maximum_microsim_batch_size, + "target_column_payload_upper_bound_bytes": ( + _streaming_target_column_payload_upper_bound_bytes( + total_households=household_count, + household_slice_size=maximum_microsim_batch_size, + chunk_spec_count=min(chunk_size, len(specs)), + ) + ), "reason": ( - "the materializer emits one household column per spec, so " - "a whole-registry pass would peak near 2 x n_specs x " - "n_households x 8 bytes; chunks keep the identical " - "canonical calls under the 20 GiB scoring budget" + "the full-frame microsimulation and whole-registry target " + "columns can exceed the scoring budget; fixed household " + "slices are materialized and scored before being freed, " + "so no dense full-pool household-by-measure table exists" ), "recombination": ( - "per-target rows are row-independent; the aggregate is " - "one relative_error_loss call over the full combined " - "vectors" + "fixed-order slice estimates are additive matrix/weight " + "products; target, scale, name, and column contracts match " + "on every slice; the aggregate is one relative_error_loss " + "call over the full combined vectors" ), "code_citation": _CODE_CITATIONS["chunked_materialize_score"], "chunks": chunk_receipts, @@ -1278,9 +1630,13 @@ def _comparison_payload( candidate_battery, Mapping ): raise TypeError("Artifact terminal_battery payloads must be mappings.") - both_authenticated = ( - incumbent_battery.get("status") == "authenticated_pool_receipt" - and candidate_battery.get("status") == "authenticated_pool_receipt" + computable_statuses = { + "authenticated_pool_receipt", + "computed_finished_h5", + } + both_computable = ( + incumbent_battery.get("status") in computable_statuses + and candidate_battery.get("status") in computable_statuses ) return { "decision": "owner_decides_flip", @@ -1297,7 +1653,7 @@ def _comparison_payload( "targets": target_comparisons, }, "terminal_battery": { - "head_to_head_comparable": both_authenticated, + "head_to_head_comparable": both_computable, "incumbent_status": incumbent_battery.get("status"), "candidate_status": candidate_battery.get("status"), "incumbent_status_counts": _battery_status_counts(incumbent_battery), @@ -1322,7 +1678,6 @@ def score_head_to_head( maximum_microsim_batch_size: int | None = ( release.DEFAULT_MAXIMUM_MICROSIM_BATCH_SIZE ), - target_materialization_cache_dir: Path | None = None, candidate_manifest_sha256: str | None = None, ) -> dict[str, object]: """Compile once, then score incumbent and optional candidate sequentially.""" @@ -1351,7 +1706,6 @@ def score_head_to_head( artifact_name=name, yardstick=yardstick, maximum_microsim_batch_size=maximum_microsim_batch_size, - target_materialization_cache_dir=target_materialization_cache_dir, ) artifacts[name] = artifact_payload contracts[name] = contract @@ -1489,6 +1843,12 @@ def _battery_markdown_section( status = str(battery.get("status") or "unknown") counts = _battery_status_counts(battery) counts_text = ", ".join(f"{name}: {count}" for name, count in counts.items()) + leg_counts = battery.get("scalar_leg_status_counts") + leg_counts_text = ( + ", ".join(f"{name}: {count}" for name, count in sorted(leg_counts.items())) + if isinstance(leg_counts, Mapping) + else "unavailable" + ) if status == "inapplicable": lines.append( f"All {battery['comparison_count']} comparisons inapplicable — " @@ -1514,11 +1874,23 @@ def _battery_markdown_section( for channel, count in sorted((origin_counts or {}).items()) ) ) - else: + elif status == "authenticated_pool_receipt": lines.append( f"Authenticated pool receipt; gate passed: " - f"`{battery.get('gate_passed')}`. Status counts: {counts_text}." + f"`{battery.get('gate_passed')}`. Comparison statuses: {counts_text}. " + f"Scalar-leg statuses: {leg_counts_text}." + ) + elif status == "computed_finished_h5": + lines.append( + "Computed from the finished H5's shipped weights on an ephemeral " + f"terminal gate view; gate passed: `{battery.get('gate_passed')}`. " + f"Comparison statuses: {counts_text}. Scalar-leg statuses: " + f"{leg_counts_text}. This is computed evidence, not an authenticated " + "pool-build receipt." ) + else: + lines.append(f"Unknown battery evidence status `{_markdown_escape(status)}`.") + if status != "inapplicable": failures = battery.get("failures") if isinstance(failures, list) and failures: lines.append("") @@ -1526,6 +1898,37 @@ def _battery_markdown_section( lines.extend(f"- {_markdown_escape(line)}" for line in failures[:40]) if len(failures) > 40: lines.append(f"- … {len(failures) - 40} more in the JSON twin.") + comparisons = battery.get("comparisons") + if isinstance(comparisons, Mapping): + lines.extend( + [ + "", + "| comparison | scalar leg | status | value |", + "|---|---|---|---:|", + ] + ) + for label, comparison in sorted(comparisons.items()): + if not isinstance(comparison, Mapping): + continue + scalar_legs = comparison.get("scalar_legs") + if not isinstance(scalar_legs, list): + continue + for leg in scalar_legs: + if not isinstance(leg, Mapping): + continue + value = leg.get("value") + rendered_value = ( + _markdown_number(value) + if isinstance(value, (int, float, np.integer, np.floating)) + and not isinstance(value, bool) + else _markdown_escape("—" if value is None else value) + ) + lines.append( + f"| {_markdown_escape(label)} | " + f"{_markdown_escape(leg.get('name'))} | " + f"{_markdown_escape(leg.get('status'))} | " + f"{rendered_value} |" + ) lines.append("") return lines @@ -1736,7 +2139,6 @@ def main(argv: Sequence[str] | None = None) -> int: args.congressional_district_vintage_crosswalk ), maximum_microsim_batch_size=args.maximum_microsim_batch_size, - target_materialization_cache_dir=args.target_materialization_cache_dir, candidate_manifest_sha256=args.candidate_manifest_sha256, ) json_path, markdown_path = write_scorecard(payload, args.out_prefix) From e834baadff474ab00e3df88f9474cc4819979b3c Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Sat, 22 Aug 2026 23:24:13 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 08/12] Record mainline merge and pre-score queue audit --- PROGRESS.md | 12 +++++++----- _LANE-NOTES.md | 11 +++++++++++ 2 files changed, 18 insertions(+), 5 deletions(-) diff --git a/PROGRESS.md b/PROGRESS.md index 36f2a852..f753925c 100644 --- a/PROGRESS.md +++ b/PROGRESS.md @@ -58,14 +58,16 @@ scoring step. focused run reached 18/19; its sole test-message mismatch was corrected and the failed test reran green. Ruff, formatting, byte compilation, and `git diff --check` pass. +- Merged the six newer `origin/main` commits cleanly at merge commit + `34d93846`. Post-merge, all 13 scorer tests and all 8 mainline US + fiscal-memory tests pass (21/21). ## Next -- Commit the coherent scorer/package reconciliation, merge the six newer - `origin/main` commits without discarding lane work, and rerun affected tests. -- Find a sandbox-permitted equivalent of the required build-process check - (`ps ax` itself is denied), then run incumbent scoring under 20 GiB and - commit `experiments/replacement_scorecard/incumbent_48b9d479.{json,md}`. +- Run incumbent scoring under 20 GiB after the queue check: `ps`/`pgrep`/`top` + are sandbox-denied, while the permitted `lsof` process/file scan found no + build-runtime working directory and no open pool/checkpoint/manifest files. + Commit `experiments/replacement_scorecard/incumbent_48b9d479.{json,md}`. - Record the exact candidate command and comparison doctrine in `_LANE-NOTES.md`, run the full workspace suite, and replace the stale `FINAL_REPORT.md` with this lane's final evidence. diff --git a/_LANE-NOTES.md b/_LANE-NOTES.md index ba913133..bfba389e 100644 --- a/_LANE-NOTES.md +++ b/_LANE-NOTES.md @@ -213,6 +213,17 @@ wording, after which that corrected test reran green. Ruff check/format, Python byte compilation, and `git diff --check` pass. No pool build, push, gate edit, threshold edit, or band edit occurred. +- Mainline reconciliation: merged the six newer `origin/main` commits at + `34d93846` with no conflict; the only US change among them isolates the + fiscal-refresh memory canary. Post-merge validation passed all 13 scorecard + tests and all 8 fiscal-memory tests (21/21). +- Required pre-score process check: `ps ax | grep + build_us_multispine_pool` was attempted and denied by the managed macOS + sandbox; `pgrep` and `top` are denied as well. The permitted `lsof -d cwd` + process scan found no build-runtime working directory, and a full permitted + file-descriptor scan found no open `build_us_multispine_pool`, pool H5, + checkpoint, or pool-manifest path. The incumbent score may therefore start; + no pool build was launched by this lane. --- From d876c971aa9309c9c1586a36b9cfcb6c3e63e913 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Sun, 23 Aug 2026 03:06:25 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 09/12] Establish the live US incumbent scorecard --- PROGRESS.md | 18 +- _LANE-NOTES.md | 41 + .../incumbent_48b9d479.json | 693823 +++++++++++++++ .../incumbent_48b9d479.md | 128 + 4 files changed, 694003 insertions(+), 7 deletions(-) create mode 100644 experiments/replacement_scorecard/incumbent_48b9d479.json create mode 100644 experiments/replacement_scorecard/incumbent_48b9d479.md diff --git a/PROGRESS.md b/PROGRESS.md index f753925c..c081661c 100644 --- a/PROGRESS.md +++ b/PROGRESS.md @@ -7,8 +7,8 @@ path for the live US incumbent and either a finished-H5 or authenticated-pool candidate. Fiscal scoring streams fixed registry chunks across fixed household slices, and a gate-failed current stacked publication remains authenticated scorecard evidence without being promoted to simulation-ready. The incumbent -scoring run, result artifacts, owner handoff, final suite, and final report -remain. +side is now scored and committed evidence is being prepared; the owner handoff, +final suite, and final report remain. No pool build, push, gate change, threshold change, or band change has occurred. `ps ax | grep build_us_multispine_pool` is checked before every @@ -61,13 +61,17 @@ scoring step. - Merged the six newer `origin/main` commits cleanly at merge commit `34d93846`. Post-merge, all 13 scorer tests and all 8 mainline US fiscal-memory tests pass (21/21). +- Completed the incumbent-only score against the exact Build P artifact and + all 32,842 registry rows. Results: weighted loss + `0.11462448275649702`, fraction within 10% `0.2669143170330674`, 57,240 + nonzero household weights, and all 132 battery comparisons / 369 scalar + legs explicitly inapplicable because observed clone-0 ACS support is empty. + The run peaked at 18.666 GiB and wrote + `experiments/replacement_scorecard/incumbent_48b9d479.{json,md}`. ## Next -- Run incumbent scoring under 20 GiB after the queue check: `ps`/`pgrep`/`top` - are sandbox-denied, while the permitted `lsof` process/file scan found no - build-runtime working directory and no open pool/checkpoint/manifest files. - Commit `experiments/replacement_scorecard/incumbent_48b9d479.{json,md}`. -- Record the exact candidate command and comparison doctrine in +- Commit the incumbent result and its run receipt. Record the exact candidate + command and comparison doctrine in `_LANE-NOTES.md`, run the full workspace suite, and replace the stale `FINAL_REPORT.md` with this lane's final evidence. diff --git a/_LANE-NOTES.md b/_LANE-NOTES.md index bfba389e..eccca2eb 100644 --- a/_LANE-NOTES.md +++ b/_LANE-NOTES.md @@ -225,6 +225,47 @@ checkpoint, or pool-manifest path. The incumbent score may therefore start; no pool build was launched by this lane. +## 2026-08-23 — incumbent yardstick established + +- Exact command run from this worktree after the empty queue scan: + + ```bash + .venv/bin/python tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py \ + --incumbent /Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-us/snapshots/26dcad66867687f15735dc4926523e3741920836/populace_us_2024.h5 \ + --ledger-facts /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/_buildh-runtime/inputs/consumer_facts_buildn_v9_4.jsonl \ + --out-prefix experiments/replacement_scorecard/incumbent_48b9d479 \ + --maximum-microsim-batch-size 5000 + ``` + +- The scorer completed with exit 0 and peak RSS 18.666 GiB. It used registry + `c4ac617743f2` (32,842 unique target rows), Ledger facts SHA-256 + `b3c0835631a446eb96aa84d86f3ee962d15ca356174c7114db52974f1cacc080`, + and CD crosswalk SHA-256 + `c7cb040b1f57ca2ea2adcbfe60cc2b250ca23acbc4b640cd421e766fa54c1aec`. + The fixed streaming plan used five registry chunks and twelve household + slices per chunk, with a conservative live target-column payload bound of + 983,040,000 bytes (`tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py:654-852,1399-1477`). +- Incumbent fiscal evidence: weighted loss + `0.11462448275649702`; fraction within 10% `0.2669143170330674`; 57,240 + households and 57,240 nonzero shipped weights. The 32,842 per-target + contributions sum to `0.11462448275649767`, agreeing with the canonical + aggregate to floating-point summation tolerance. The production weighting + and aggregate formulas are code-cited in the result + (`tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:344-348,481-516,5781-5814,6214-6290`; + `packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/solve.py:471-537,576-600`). +- Incumbent battery evidence: 132/132 comparisons and all 369 nominal scalar + legs are explicitly `inapplicable`; the artifact has 120,261 positive-weight + clone-0 ASEC rows across the three battery entities and zero ACS rows. No + zero, pass, or failure was synthesized for those by-origin-only legs + (`packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/stacked_spine.py:11644-11709,11824-11832,11948-12154`). +- Result identities: JSON SHA-256 + `b2ad1a07f9668bc5d796cc9de99ef12da781b1ee8163ea65781871a20da441c8`; + Markdown SHA-256 + `3f9171b8f63fcef61518a4af1c18a8555c4f449ac62e9283e41ac2fe9c779021`. + Both record the incumbent artifact SHA-256 `48b9d479...`, exact HF repo, + revision, resolved commit, filename, PolicyEngine.py bundle version/source + commit, and certified policyengine-us version. + --- # Historical: one-target-surface lane notes diff --git a/experiments/replacement_scorecard/incumbent_48b9d479.json b/experiments/replacement_scorecard/incumbent_48b9d479.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..eb093d76 --- /dev/null +++ b/experiments/replacement_scorecard/incumbent_48b9d479.json @@ -0,0 +1,693823 @@ +{ + "artifacts": { + "candidate": null, + "incumbent": { + "fiscal": { + 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+ "tax_unit/take_up/takes_up_dc_ptc[clone_0]": { + "joint": false, + "metric": "boolean_incidence", + "metric_legs": [ + "incidence_ratio_acs_over_asec" + ], + "reason": "artifact carries no positive-weight clone-0 ACS-stacked origin rows (observed channels are listed in observed_origins); the ASEC-vs-ACS battery has an empty ACS side and is definitionally inapplicable", + "scalar_legs": [ + { + "name": "incidence_ratio_acs_over_asec", + "status": "inapplicable", + "value": null + } + ], + "status": "inapplicable" + }, + "tax_unit/take_up/takes_up_eitc[clone_0]": { + "joint": false, + "metric": "boolean_incidence", + "metric_legs": [ + "incidence_ratio_acs_over_asec" + ], + "reason": "artifact carries no positive-weight clone-0 ACS-stacked origin rows (observed channels are listed in observed_origins); the ASEC-vs-ACS battery has an empty ACS side and is definitionally inapplicable", + "scalar_legs": [ + { + "name": "incidence_ratio_acs_over_asec", + "status": "inapplicable", + "value": null + } + ], + "status": "inapplicable" + } + }, + "metric_leg_count": 369, + "observed_origins": { + "entities": { + "person": { + "acs_rows": 0, + "asec_rows": 66001, + "origin_row_counts": { + "asec": 66001 + }, + "provenance_columns_present": true, + "raw_origin_row_counts": { + "asec": 66001, + "puf_tax_detail": 100320 + }, + "scope": { + "clone_index": 0, + "positive_weight_only": true + } + }, + "spm_unit": { + "acs_rows": 0, + "asec_rows": 23286, + "origin_row_counts": { + "asec": 23286 + }, + "provenance_columns_present": true, + "raw_origin_row_counts": { + "asec": 23286, + "puf_tax_detail": 36614 + }, + "scope": { + "clone_index": 0, + "positive_weight_only": true + } + }, + "tax_unit": { + "acs_rows": 0, + "asec_rows": 30974, + "origin_row_counts": { + "asec": 30974 + }, + "provenance_columns_present": true, + "raw_origin_row_counts": { + "asec": 30974, + "puf_tax_detail": 48755 + }, + "scope": { + "clone_index": 0, + "positive_weight_only": true + } + } + }, + "entities_missing_provenance_columns": [], + "total_acs_rows": 0, + "total_asec_rows": 120261 + }, + "reason": "artifact carries no positive-weight clone-0 ACS-stacked origin rows (observed channels are listed in observed_origins); the ASEC-vs-ACS battery has an empty ACS side and is definitionally inapplicable", + "scalar_leg_status_counts": { + "inapplicable": 369 + }, + "status": "inapplicable" + } + } + }, + "comparison": null, + "schema_version": 2, + "yardstick": { + "code_citations": { + "battery_channel_constants": "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/support_provenance.py:31,333-344; packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/stacked_spine.py:263", + "battery_finished_h5_materialization": "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/multispine_pool.py:3137-3215 (ephemeral SSI gate view); packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/stacked_spine.py:7808-7897,11474-11492,11530-11898 (finished-artifact evidence seam and canonical evaluator)", + "battery_origin_masks": "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/stacked_spine.py:11644-11709,11824-11832", + "battery_receipt_keys": "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/stacked_spine.py:11948-12154", + "battery_registry": "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/stacked_spine.py:3011-3025", + "canonical_scorer_seam": "tools/score_us_fiscal_targets.py:383-528", + "cd_provenance_check": "tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:2519-2567,2570-2597", + "chunked_materialize_score": "tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py:654-852,1399-1477; tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:3730-3750; packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/matrix.py:286-355; score.py:79-142", + "entity_h5_loader": "tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:2454-2471", + "fraction_within_10pct": "packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/solve.py:249-260", + "incumbent_package_resolution": "policyengine.py@5.0.3 src/policyengine/data/bundle/manifest.json:113-140,156-160,181-189; src/policyengine/provenance/manifest.py:180-187,270-299,301-318,540-560; src/policyengine/provenance/dataset_sources.py:57-74,77-117; src/policyengine/tax_benefit_models/us/model.py:423-462", + "legacy_flat_loader": "tools/score_us_fiscal_targets.py:240-333", + "loss_aggregate": "packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/solve.py:471-537,576-600 (relative_error_loss, the single canonical loss definition)", + "loss_attribution": "packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/_target_loss_attribution.py:143-176 (per-row capped error, weight share, and contribution formulas, applied with whole-registry weight normalization)", + "loss_weighting": "tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:344-348,481-516,5781-5814,6214-6290", + "materialization_drop_detection": "tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:4323-4350", + "matrix_skip_detection": "packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/matrix.py:286-355", + "pool_battery_persistence": "tools/build_us_multispine_pool.py:3263-3334,3533-3550,3766-3786; packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/gates.py:690-700", + "pool_manifest_authentication": "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/h5_io.py:371-588,719-869", + "relative_error": "packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/score.py:25-51", + "single_registry_surface": "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/fiscal_targets.py:933-1017" + }, + "fiscal_aggregate": { + "code_citations": [ + "tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:344-348,481-516,5781-5814,6214-6290", + "packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/solve.py:471-537,576-600 (relative_error_loss, the single canonical loss definition)", + "packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/_target_loss_attribution.py:143-176 (per-row capped error, weight share, and contribution formulas, applied with whole-registry weight normalization)" + ], + "family_multipliers": null, + "loss_basis": { + "loss_vector_sha256": "5b506a59dff99e58a8176fe755006d548bcad629a487e5a5eeb5a68dcd7804ec", + "n_targets": 32842, + "schema_version": 1, + "target_loss_cap": 1.0, + "target_loss_family_multipliers": {}, + "target_loss_weighting": "sqrt_value_concept_budget_weighted_mape_50_50_amount_count_target_scale_cap_100pct" + }, + "name": "sqrt_value_concept_budget_weighted_mape_50_50_amount_count_target_scale_cap_100pct", + "target_loss_cap": 1.0, + "weighting_rule": "raw weight = sqrt(max(abs(target value), 1)); mean-normalized within amount/count value basis; each semantic concept group's total weight is scaled to its largest row weight; the amount and count bases are then scaled to equal total budget; the vector is mean-normalized; the aggregate is the weighted mean of per-target |actual - target| / max(|target|, 1), each capped at 100%" + }, + "fiscal_registry": { + "age_targets": false, + "allow_unaged_dollar_targets": true, + "congressional_district_vintage_crosswalk": { + "filename": "congressional_district_vintage_crosswalk.csv", + "sha256": "c7cb040b1f57ca2ea2adcbfe60cc2b250ca23acbc4b640cd421e766fa54c1aec", + "size_bytes": 77935 + }, + "country": "us", + "environment": { + "microcosm_commit": "e834baadff474ab00e3df88f9474cc4819979b3c", + "policyengine_us_version": "1.764.6" + }, + "ledger_facts": { + "filename": "consumer_facts_buildn_v9_4.jsonl", + "sha256": "b3c0835631a446eb96aa84d86f3ee962d15ca356174c7114db52974f1cacc080", + "size_bytes": 131852600 + }, + "target_count": 32842, + "target_period": 2024, + "target_profile_coverage": { + "failures": [], + "passed": true + }, + "version": "c4ac617743f2" + }, + "relative_error": { + "code_citation": "packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/score.py:25-51", + "rule": "(actual - target) / target; when target is zero, the raw actual-minus-target delta" + }, + "terminal_battery": { + "by_origin_only": true, + "code_citations": [ + "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/stacked_spine.py:3011-3025", + "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/stacked_spine.py:11644-11709,11824-11832", + "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/stacked_spine.py:11948-12154", + "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/support_provenance.py:31,333-344; packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/stacked_spine.py:263", + "tools/build_us_multispine_pool.py:3263-3334,3533-3550,3766-3786; packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/gates.py:690-700" + ], + "comparison_count": 132, + "joint_comparison_count": 1, + "metric_leg_count": 369, + "single_column_comparison_count": 131 + } + } +} diff --git a/experiments/replacement_scorecard/incumbent_48b9d479.md b/experiments/replacement_scorecard/incumbent_48b9d479.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..4617496d --- /dev/null +++ b/experiments/replacement_scorecard/incumbent_48b9d479.md @@ -0,0 +1,128 @@ +# US release replacement scorecard + +This is evidence for the owner's flip decision, not an automatic publication verdict. No gate, threshold, tolerance, or band is applied by this scorecard. The complete per-target table is in the JSON twin of this file. + +## Frozen yardstick + +- Fiscal registry: `c4ac617743f2` with 32,842 targets from Ledger facts `b3c0835631a446eb96aa84d86f3ee962d15ca356174c7114db52974f1cacc080`. +- Weighted aggregate: `sqrt_value_concept_budget_weighted_mape_50_50_amount_count_target_scale_cap_100pct` with cap `1.0` and no family multipliers. +- Weighting rule: raw weight = sqrt(max(abs(target value), 1)); mean-normalized within amount/count value basis; each semantic concept group's total weight is scaled to its largest row weight; the amount and count bases are then scaled to equal total budget; the vector is mean-normalized; the aggregate is the weighted mean of per-target |actual - target| / max(|target|, 1), each capped at 100%. +- Terminal battery: 131 single-column plus 1 joint comparison(s); all are by-origin-only (ASEC vs ACS within one artifact). + +## Artifact summary + +| role | artifact SHA-256 | loader | households | nonzero weights | weighted loss | within 10% | terminal battery | +|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---| +| incumbent | `48b9d479fb4fd1c3537f9383ce4697d130b6f618658409d74f6233c43b994c7e` | microcosm_entity_h5 | 57,240 | 57,240 | 0.11462448 | 0.26691432 | inapplicable | + +The incumbent SHA-256 matches the artifact policyengine.py `5.0.3` resolves as the US default dataset: `policyengine/populace-us` revision `populace-us-2024-buildp-sparse-rmloss100-cae8640-20260728T011454Z`, file `populace_us_2024.h5` (build `populace-us-2024-buildp-sparse-rmloss100-cae8640-20260728T011454Z`). + +## incumbent: loss by family and value basis + +| family | basis | targets | weight share | loss contribution | weighted mean capped error | worst target | +|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---| +| irs_soi | amount | 15,935 | 0.45322305 | 0.07624405 | 0.16822633 | irs_soi.ty2023.congressional_district_2022.all_returns.us.adjusted_gross_income@2024 | +| irs_soi | count | 15,425 | 0.38466844 | 0.0315149 | 0.08192744 | irs_soi.ty2023.congressional_district_2022.all_returns.us.net_capital_gains_returns@2024 | +| census_population | count | 936 | 0.08032061 | 0.00140236 | 0.01745958 | census_pep.cy2024.national_resident_population_age.30_to_34.population@2024 | +| federal_reserve | amount | 1 | 0.01417628 | 0.00097313 | 0.06864463 | federal_reserve_z1.cy2023.households_nonprofits_balance_sheet.net_worth.fl152090005.amount_outstanding@2024 | +| cms_medicaid | count | 134 | 0.01952493 | 0.00076891 | 0.03938119 | cms_medicaid.month2024_12.state_enrollment.us.total_chip_enrollment@2024 | +| bea | amount | 2 | 0.00557508 | 0.0006263 | 0.11233864 | bea_nipa.cy2024.total_wages_salaries.a034rc.wages_salaries_amount@2024 | +| state_income_tax | amount | 44 | 0.00436743 | 0.00061952 | 0.14184899 | census_stc.fy2023.individual_income_tax_collections.md.t40.collections@2024 | +| jct | amount | 11 | 0.00169048 | 0.0006009 | 0.35546219 | jct.tax_expenditures.cy2024.self_employed_pension_contribution_deduction.revenue_loss@2024 | +| cbo | amount | 5 | 0.01190517 | 0.00054369 | 0.04566852 | cbo.revenue_projection.ty2024.income_by_source.net_business_income.projected_amount@2024 | +| cms_aca | count | 102 | 0.00738269 | 0.00034612 | 0.04688278 | cms_aca.oep2024.state_marketplace.tx.aptc_recipients@2024 | +| ssa | count | 54 | 0.00298108 | 0.00032081 | 0.1076164 | ssa_ssi_monthly.month2024_12.ssi_federal_payment_recipients.by_age.under_18.recipient_count@2024 | +| ssa | amount | 57 | 0.00571689 | 0.00027115 | 0.04742979 | ssa_supplement.cy2024.ssi_payments.by_area_category.california_total.payment_amount@2024 | +| hhs_acf_tanf | amount | 30 | 0.00043213 | 0.00013478 | 0.31189822 | hhs_acf_tanf.fy2024.cash_assistance.ca.basic_assistance_excluding_relative_foster_care_and_adoption_guardianship.all_funds@2024 | +| usda_snap | count | 52 | 0.00477804 | 0.00012844 | 0.02688085 | usda_snap.fy2024.state_average_monthly_households.wro.ca.average_monthly_households@2024 | +| usda_snap | amount | 52 | 0.00248916 | 8.15440354e-05 | 0.03275967 | usda_snap.fy2024.national_benefits.national_total.total_benefits@2024 | +| cms_medicare | amount | 1 | 0.00042433 | 4.19377533e-05 | 0.098834 | cms_medicare.cy2024.part_b_premium_income.premiums_from_enrollees.actual_amount@2024 | +| hhs_acf_liheap | count | 1 | 0.00034422 | 5.93640860e-06 | 0.01724608 | hhs_acf_liheap.fy2024.national_profile.state_programs.households_served@2024 | + +## incumbent: worst 50 targets by loss contribution + +| target | period | family | target value | actual | relative error | loss contribution | +|---|---:|---|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| federal_reserve_z1.cy2023.households_nonprofits_balance_sheet.net_worth.fl152090005.amount_outstanding | 2024 | federal_reserve | 1.56080700e+14 | 1.66794801e+14 | 0.06864463 | 0.00097313 | +| bea_nipa.cy2024.total_wages_salaries.a034rc.wages_salaries_amount | 2024 | bea | 1.23879290e+13 | 1.05507363e+13 | -0.14830507 | 0.0005923 | +| irs_soi.ty2023.congressional_district_2022.all_returns.us.adjusted_gross_income | 2024 | irs_soi | 1.44248104e+13 | 1.63737258e+13 | 0.13510856 | 0.00058227 | +| irs_soi.ty2022.historic_table_2.us.all.adjusted_gross_income | 2024 | irs_soi | 1.47824922e+13 | 1.63737258e+13 | 0.10764312 | 0.00046962 | +| irs_soi.ty2023.congressional_district_2022.all_returns.us.net_capital_gains_returns | 2024 | irs_soi | 2.98457100e+07 | 1.21772927e+07 | -0.59199186 | 0.00045922 | +| irs_soi.ty2023.congressional_district_2022.all_returns.us.qualified_business_income_deduction_returns | 2024 | irs_soi | 2.50150400e+07 | 4.04497744e+07 | 0.61701818 | 0.00043819 | +| irs_soi.ty2023.congressional_district_2022.all_returns.us.taxable_interest_amount | 2024 | irs_soi | 1.23790578e+11 | 3.15594365e+11 | 1.54942153 | 0.00039924 | +| irs_soi.ty2022.historic_table_2.us.all.taxable_income_amount | 2024 | irs_soi | 1.16794025e+13 | 1.27125689e+13 | 0.08846055 | 0.00034304 | +| irs_soi.ty2023.table_4_3.all_returns_excluding_dependents.all.adjusted_gross_income | 2024 | irs_soi | 1.51968693e+13 | 1.63737258e+13 | 0.07744072 | 0.00034256 | +| irs_soi.ty2023.table_1_1.all.adjusted_gross_income | 2024 | irs_soi | 1.52860174e+13 | 1.63737258e+13 | 0.07115709 | 0.00031568 | +| irs_soi.ty2023.table_1_2.all_returns.all.adjusted_gross_income | 2024 | irs_soi | 1.52860174e+13 | 1.63737258e+13 | 0.07115709 | 0.00031568 | +| irs_soi.ty2022.historic_table_2.us.all.wages_salaries_amount | 2024 | irs_soi | 9.70885301e+12 | 1.05507363e+13 | 0.08671295 | 0.00030659 | +| irs_soi.ty2023.table_1_4.all.net_capital_gains_amount | 2024 | irs_soi | 9.66168014e+11 | 1.21405571e+12 | 0.2565679 | 0.00028616 | +| irs_soi.ty2023.table_2_5.eitc_by_agi_children.one_qualifying_child.total.eitc_returns | 2024 | irs_soi | 4.23487958e+06 | 8.22712539e+06 | 0.94270587 | 0.00027546 | +| irs_soi.ty2023.congressional_district_2022.all_returns.us.limited_state_local_taxes_amount | 2024 | irs_soi | 2.50437565e+11 | 1.30064329e+11 | -0.48065168 | 0.00027294 | +| irs_soi.ty2023.congressional_district_2022.all_returns.us.interest_paid_deduction_amount | 2024 | irs_soi | 1.40135155e+11 | 2.27342799e+11 | 0.62231097 | 0.00026434 | +| irs_soi.ty2023.table_4_3.all_returns_excluding_dependents.all.taxable_income_amount | 2024 | irs_soi | 1.19173635e+13 | 1.27125689e+13 | 0.06672662 | 0.00026138 | +| irs_soi.ty2023.table_2_5.eitc_by_agi_children.no_qualifying_children.total.eitc_returns | 2024 | irs_soi | 3.30510983e+06 | 6.60019571e+06 | 0.99696714 | 0.00025736 | +| cbo.revenue_projection.ty2024.income_by_source.net_business_income.projected_amount | 2024 | cbo | 1.91600000e+12 | 1.60512572e+12 | -0.16225171 | 0.00025484 | +| irs_soi.ty2023.table_1_2.all_returns.all.taxable_income_amount | 2024 | irs_soi | 1.19444470e+13 | 1.27125689e+13 | 0.06430787 | 0.00025219 | +| irs_soi.ty2023.congressional_district_2022.all_returns.ca_total.adjusted_gross_income | 2024 | irs_soi | 1.94793409e+12 | 2.24143342e+12 | 0.15067211 | 0.00023862 | +| irs_soi.ty2023.table_2_5.eitc_by_agi_children.two_qualifying_children.total.eitc_returns | 2024 | irs_soi | 2.82144267e+06 | 5.41652682e+06 | 0.91977207 | 0.00021937 | +| irs_soi.ty2023.congressional_district_2022.all_returns.us.income_tax_liability_amount | 2024 | irs_soi | 2.05068370e+12 | 2.32071326e+12 | 0.13167782 | 0.00021397 | +| irs_soi.ty2022.historic_table_2.state_broad.ca.all.adjusted_gross_income | 2024 | irs_soi | 1.98700070e+12 | 2.24143342e+12 | 0.12804863 | 0.00020481 | +| irs_soi.ty2023.congressional_district_2022.all_returns.tx_total.adjusted_gross_income | 2024 | irs_soi | 1.21852666e+12 | 1.41751435e+12 | 0.16330187 | 0.00020455 | +| irs_soi.ty2023.congressional_district_2022.all_returns.ca_total.limited_state_local_taxes_amount | 2024 | irs_soi | 7.49343950e+10 | 2.59009009e+10 | -0.65435231 | 0.00020325 | +| irs_soi.ty2022.historic_table_2.us.500k_to_1m.taxable_interest_amount | 2024 | irs_soi | 2.77364912e+10 | 7.66587312e+10 | 1.76382223 | 0.00018898 | +| irs_soi.ty2023.congressional_district_2022.all_returns.fl_total.adjusted_gross_income | 2024 | irs_soi | 1.09239177e+12 | 1.26612524e+12 | 0.15903953 | 0.00018862 | +| irs_soi.ty2020.form_w2_social_security_tips.box_7_social_security_tips.return_count | 2024 | irs_soi | 6.03861300e+06 | 2.89974185e+06 | -0.51980002 | 0.00018137 | +| irs_soi.ty2023.congressional_district_2022.all_returns.ny_total.limited_state_local_taxes_amount | 2024 | irs_soi | 4.12540850e+10 | 9.43502839e+09 | -0.77129469 | 0.00017776 | +| irs_soi.ty2022.historic_table_2.state_broad.ca.all.wages_salaries_amount | 2024 | irs_soi | 1.35171286e+12 | 1.53192271e+12 | 0.13331962 | 0.00017588 | +| irs_soi.ty2022.historic_table_2.us.all.income_tax_liability_amount | 2024 | irs_soi | 2.10534565e+12 | 2.32071326e+12 | 0.10229561 | 0.00016842 | +| irs_soi.ty2023.table_2_5.eitc_by_agi_children.three_or_more_qualifying_children.total.eitc_returns | 2024 | irs_soi | 1.55714243e+06 | 3.03241140e+06 | 0.9474207 | 0.00016787 | +| irs_soi.ty2022.historic_table_2.state_broad.tx.all.adjusted_gross_income | 2024 | irs_soi | 1.25211384e+12 | 1.41751435e+12 | 0.13209702 | 0.00016773 | +| irs_soi.ty2023.congressional_district_2022.all_returns.tx_total.qualified_business_income_deduction_returns | 2024 | irs_soi | 1.98114000e+06 | 3.64235160e+06 | 0.83851298 | 0.00016759 | +| irs_soi.ty2023.table_2_1.itemized_all_returns.all.adjusted_gross_income | 2024 | irs_soi | 4.66933240e+12 | 4.98817777e+12 | 0.068285 | 0.00016743 | +| irs_soi.ty2023.congressional_district_2022.all_returns.us.limited_state_local_taxes_returns | 2024 | irs_soi | 1.08425800e+07 | 1.47093435e+07 | 0.35662762 | 0.00016674 | +| irs_soi.ty2023.congressional_district_2022.all_returns.ca_total.net_capital_gains_returns | 2024 | irs_soi | 3.80893000e+06 | 1.54004608e+06 | -0.59567488 | 0.00016507 | +| cms_medicaid.month2024_12.state_enrollment.us.total_chip_enrollment | 2024 | cms_medicaid | 7.30587400e+06 | 4.24737432e+06 | -0.4186357 | 0.00016067 | +| irs_soi.ty2023.congressional_district_2022.all_returns.ca_total.qualified_business_income_deduction_returns | 2024 | irs_soi | 3.08014000e+06 | 5.06500313e+06 | 0.64440679 | 0.00016059 | +| irs_soi.ty2023.congressional_district_2022.all_returns.us.partnership_scorp_income_amount | 2024 | irs_soi | 9.96633005e+11 | 1.13442471e+12 | 0.13825721 | 0.00015662 | +| irs_soi.ty2022.historic_table_2.state_broad.fl.all.adjusted_gross_income | 2024 | irs_soi | 1.12178219e+12 | 1.26612524e+12 | 0.12867297 | 0.00015464 | +| irs_soi.ty2022.historic_table_2.us.1m_plus.taxable_interest_amount | 2024 | irs_soi | 1.47438602e+11 | 9.58877540e+10 | -0.34964282 | 0.00015234 | +| irs_soi.ty2023.congressional_district_2022.all_returns.ca_total.charitable_amount | 2024 | irs_soi | 3.23532190e+10 | 5.64925978e+10 | 0.74611985 | 0.00015228 | +| irs_soi.ty2023.congressional_district_2022.all_returns.ca_total.taxable_interest_amount | 2024 | irs_soi | 1.66550920e+10 | 4.36606944e+10 | 1.62146221 | 0.00014644 | +| irs_soi.ty2022.historic_table_2.state_broad.ca.all.taxable_income_amount | 2024 | irs_soi | 1.61442096e+12 | 1.77672164e+12 | 0.10053182 | 0.00014494 | +| jct.tax_expenditures.cy2024.self_employed_pension_contribution_deduction.revenue_loss | 2024 | jct | 1.66000000e+10 | 2.03311316e+08 | -0.98775233 | 0.00014441 | +| irs_soi.ty2023.congressional_district_2022.all_returns.fl_total.taxable_interest_amount | 2024 | irs_soi | 1.57682910e+10 | 3.74716372e+10 | 1.37639179 | 0.00014249 | +| irs_soi.ty2023.congressional_district_2022.all_returns.us.income_tax_before_credits_amount | 2024 | irs_soi | 2.18325166e+12 | 2.36379885e+12 | 0.08269646 | 0.00013865 | +| irs_soi.ty2023.congressional_district_2022.all_returns.ny_total.taxable_interest_amount | 2024 | irs_soi | 1.45116820e+10 | 3.03204487e+10 | 1.08938211 | 0.00013669 | + +## Terminal by-origin battery + +### incumbent + +All 132 comparisons inapplicable — artifact carries no positive-weight clone-0 ACS-stacked origin rows (observed channels are listed in observed_origins); the ASEC-vs-ACS battery has an empty ACS side and is definitionally inapplicable. +- `person` origin rows: asec=66,001 +- `spm_unit` origin rows: asec=23,286 +- `tax_unit` origin rows: asec=30,974 + +## Mechanism citations + +- `battery_channel_constants`: `packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/support_provenance.py:31,333-344; packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/stacked_spine.py:263` +- `battery_finished_h5_materialization`: `packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/multispine_pool.py:3137-3215 (ephemeral SSI gate view); packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/stacked_spine.py:7808-7897,11474-11492,11530-11898 (finished-artifact evidence seam and canonical evaluator)` +- `battery_origin_masks`: `packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/stacked_spine.py:11644-11709,11824-11832` +- `battery_receipt_keys`: `packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/stacked_spine.py:11948-12154` +- `battery_registry`: `packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/stacked_spine.py:3011-3025` +- `canonical_scorer_seam`: `tools/score_us_fiscal_targets.py:383-528` +- `cd_provenance_check`: `tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:2519-2567,2570-2597` +- `chunked_materialize_score`: `tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py:654-852,1399-1477; tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:3730-3750; packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/matrix.py:286-355; score.py:79-142` +- `entity_h5_loader`: `tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:2454-2471` +- `fraction_within_10pct`: `packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/solve.py:249-260` +- `incumbent_package_resolution`: `policyengine.py@5.0.3 src/policyengine/data/bundle/manifest.json:113-140,156-160,181-189; src/policyengine/provenance/manifest.py:180-187,270-299,301-318,540-560; src/policyengine/provenance/dataset_sources.py:57-74,77-117; src/policyengine/tax_benefit_models/us/model.py:423-462` +- `legacy_flat_loader`: `tools/score_us_fiscal_targets.py:240-333` +- `loss_aggregate`: `packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/solve.py:471-537,576-600 (relative_error_loss, the single canonical loss definition)` +- `loss_attribution`: `packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/_target_loss_attribution.py:143-176 (per-row capped error, weight share, and contribution formulas, applied with whole-registry weight normalization)` +- `loss_weighting`: `tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:344-348,481-516,5781-5814,6214-6290` +- `materialization_drop_detection`: `tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:4323-4350` +- `matrix_skip_detection`: `packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/matrix.py:286-355` +- `pool_battery_persistence`: `tools/build_us_multispine_pool.py:3263-3334,3533-3550,3766-3786; packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/gates.py:690-700` +- `pool_manifest_authentication`: `packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/h5_io.py:371-588,719-869` +- `relative_error`: `packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/score.py:25-51` +- `single_registry_surface`: `packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/fiscal_targets.py:933-1017` From 8d2ba34ced4d5d5d5aaf4dcbe91d164292ee7bdd Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Sun, 23 Aug 2026 03:09:44 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 10/12] Document candidate scorecard handoff --- PROGRESS.md | 24 +++++++++++++++--------- _LANE-NOTES.md | 41 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 2 files changed, 56 insertions(+), 9 deletions(-) diff --git a/PROGRESS.md b/PROGRESS.md index c081661c..cd69503a 100644 --- a/PROGRESS.md +++ b/PROGRESS.md @@ -2,17 +2,20 @@ ## State -The `replacement-scorecard` lane is active. The scorer now has one role-neutral +The `replacement-scorecard` implementation and incumbent evidence are complete. +The scorer has one role-neutral path for the live US incumbent and either a finished-H5 or authenticated-pool candidate. Fiscal scoring streams fixed registry chunks across fixed household slices, and a gate-failed current stacked publication remains authenticated scorecard evidence without being promoted to simulation-ready. The incumbent -side is now scored and committed evidence is being prepared; the owner handoff, -final suite, and final report remain. +side and its identity-pinned evidence are committed. The owner handoff is +recorded; the final workspace suite and committed final report remain. No pool build, push, gate change, threshold change, or band change has -occurred. `ps ax | grep build_us_multispine_pool` is checked before every -scoring step. +occurred. The sandbox denied `ps`/`pgrep`; before scoring, the permitted `lsof` +process and open-file audits found no live build-runtime process or open pool, +checkpoint, manifest, or build file. The owner command retains the required +`ps ax | grep '[b]uild_us_multispine_pool'` check for its unrestricted host. ## Done @@ -68,10 +71,13 @@ scoring step. legs explicitly inapplicable because observed clone-0 ACS support is empty. The run peaked at 18.666 GiB and wrote `experiments/replacement_scorecard/incumbent_48b9d479.{json,md}`. +- Committed the incumbent result and run receipt at `d876c971`; recorded the + exact future dense-pool and sparse-57k scoring commands and the comparison + doctrine in `_LANE-NOTES.md`. ## Next -- Commit the incumbent result and its run receipt. Record the exact candidate - command and comparison doctrine in - `_LANE-NOTES.md`, run the full workspace suite, and replace the stale - `FINAL_REPORT.md` with this lane's final evidence. +- Run the full workspace suite and final static checks. Replace the stale + `FINAL_REPORT.md` with this lane's final evidence, mark this journal complete, + and commit the handoff. The only external next step is the owner's scoring of + the not-yet-built 25% candidate followed by the owner's flip decision. diff --git a/_LANE-NOTES.md b/_LANE-NOTES.md index eccca2eb..bcb9d8a8 100644 --- a/_LANE-NOTES.md +++ b/_LANE-NOTES.md @@ -266,6 +266,47 @@ revision, resolved commit, filename, PolicyEngine.py bundle version/source commit, and certified policyengine-us version. +## Owner command when the 25% candidate exists + +First confirm that the host builder has finished. On the owner host (where +process inspection is permitted), `ps ax | grep '[b]uild_us_multispine_pool'` +must print nothing before either scoring command. Set the two published +candidate paths, then run the dense pool and sparse-57k views separately on +the same frozen incumbent and Ledger yardstick: + +```bash +CANDIDATE_POOL_MANIFEST=/absolute/path/to/25pct/pool.manifest.json +CANDIDATE_SPARSE_H5=/absolute/path/to/25pct/sparse-57k.h5 +CANDIDATE_MANIFEST_SHA256="$(shasum -a 256 "$CANDIDATE_POOL_MANIFEST" | awk '{print $1}')" +CANDIDATE_POOL_SHA8="$(jq -r '.pool_h5.sha256[0:8]' "$CANDIDATE_POOL_MANIFEST")" +CANDIDATE_SPARSE_SHA8="$(shasum -a 256 "$CANDIDATE_SPARSE_H5" | awk '{print substr($1,1,8)}')" + +.venv/bin/python tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py \ + --incumbent /Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-us/snapshots/26dcad66867687f15735dc4926523e3741920836/populace_us_2024.h5 \ + --candidate "$CANDIDATE_POOL_MANIFEST" \ + --candidate-manifest-sha256 "$CANDIDATE_MANIFEST_SHA256" \ + --ledger-facts /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/_buildh-runtime/inputs/consumer_facts_buildn_v9_4.jsonl \ + --out-prefix "experiments/replacement_scorecard/head_to_head_dense_48b9d479_${CANDIDATE_POOL_SHA8}" \ + --maximum-microsim-batch-size 5000 + +.venv/bin/python tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py \ + --incumbent /Users/maxghenis/.cache/huggingface/hub/datasets--policyengine--populace-us/snapshots/26dcad66867687f15735dc4926523e3741920836/populace_us_2024.h5 \ + --candidate "$CANDIDATE_SPARSE_H5" \ + --ledger-facts /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/_buildh-runtime/inputs/consumer_facts_buildn_v9_4.jsonl \ + --out-prefix "experiments/replacement_scorecard/head_to_head_sparse_48b9d479_${CANDIDATE_SPARSE_SHA8}" \ + --maximum-microsim-batch-size 5000 +``` + +“Better than the incumbent” on this yardstick means the owner compares each +candidate view with the incumbent’s exact `0.11462448275649702` weighted fiscal +loss and the reported target-by-target balance of lower, equal, and higher +absolute relative errors, while also inspecting every battery leg that is +computable for that candidate. There is no scorecard threshold and no automatic +conjunction or verdict. Because the incumbent’s ASEC-vs-ACS battery is +definitionally inapplicable, the candidate’s battery is standalone evidence—it +is not compared with a fabricated incumbent zero, pass, or failure. The owner +decides whether the dense and sparse evidence justifies the flip. + --- # Historical: one-target-surface lane notes From 6847d2456a13040a0c9a0e04d029a27fa8037eef Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Sun, 23 Aug 2026 05:15:14 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 11/12] Keep lane journal within source hygiene contract --- _LANE-NOTES.md | 4 ++-- 1 file changed, 2 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-) diff --git a/_LANE-NOTES.md b/_LANE-NOTES.md index bcb9d8a8..9c032954 100644 --- a/_LANE-NOTES.md +++ b/_LANE-NOTES.md @@ -50,8 +50,8 @@ (`tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:344-348,5781-5814,6214-6290`). The aggregate is the weighted mean of capped target-scaled absolute errors (`packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/solve.py:473-518`). -- Incumbent identity: PolicyEngine.py 4.15.0's bundled manifest names data - package 1.115.5, HF model repo `policyengine/policyengine-us-data`, immutable +- Incumbent identity: PolicyEngine.py 4.15.0's bundled manifest names retired + data package 1.115.5 and its historical HF model repo, immutable resolver revision `9531fe1d096244fe7eb45d791d52ef61b8a2a0a5`, filename `enhanced_cps_2024.h5`, and SHA-256 `0a6b961ad363a421bde99f2c8e5d8f20370bcba45fd303050537a25bdd805b14` From ad5aa2852e5c19a557d4c0bd13d1526932b8710a Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Sun, 23 Aug 2026 07:03:31 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 12/12] Complete replacement scorecard handoff --- FINAL_REPORT.md | 261 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++------------------- PROGRESS.md | 24 +++-- _LANE-NOTES.md | 27 +++++ 3 files changed, 199 insertions(+), 113 deletions(-) diff --git a/FINAL_REPORT.md b/FINAL_REPORT.md index 74cdc96d..02092cc5 100644 --- a/FINAL_REPORT.md +++ b/FINAL_REPORT.md @@ -1,111 +1,162 @@ -# Final report: microcosm #462 register alignment +# Final report: US release replacement scorecard ## Outcome -Completed the split-PR remediation on `loss-contract-alignment`, based on -`origin/main` at `7b6e10b`. The change is now register alignment only: one -shared critical-target register, one shared congressional-district classifier, -two consumers, builder contract-row gating, and behavioral containment of the -publish contract. - -The critical-row loss multiplier was removed entirely per -[microcosm#492](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/492). There is no -constant, CLI option, validation, loss overlay, telemetry, diagnostics/scorer -provenance, or historical replay pin left. `_fiscal_target_loss_weights` is -source-identical to `origin/main`, and its output therefore preserves main's -bit-level behavior for the same registry and family multipliers. - -## Sol round-1 findings - -1. **Table 1.4 selector parity:** removed the builder-only - `accepted_name_prefixes=("irs_soi.",)` constraint. The adapter now has - exactly the shared requirement's substring and suffix selectors. The - outside-prefix reproduction is builder-rejected. -2. **Congressional-district parity:** added exported, stdlib-only - `is_congressional_district_target(name, metadata)` and made the publisher - and builder classifiers thin wrappers. It ORs layout dimension, source-id - token, geography level, geography scope, truthy CD GEOID, and name token. - The builder's exact/semantic, Table 1.4, and zero-support paths now see the - same registry metadata. -3. **Recorded relative-error shape:** a matched row with missing/`None` - `relative_error` now fails with the publish-contract message instead of - silently passing after recomputation. Existing non-numeric and stale-value - checks remain. -4. **Behavioral anti-drift:** the load-bearing test now runs adversarial rows - through both consumers for exact-name, family+role, Table pattern, - missing/non-finite values, and a disallowed incumbent escape at the 0.25 - hard stop. A production Ledger compile supplies six separate CD evidence - rows; builder and publisher exclude identical six-name sets and counts. - Field comparisons remain as fast checks, and any added conjunctive prefix - is proven to trip the guard. - -The [#490](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/490) medical 0.25 -adjudication tolerance and its adjacent comment in `us_critical_targets.py` -remain byte-for-byte unchanged, as required. - -## Reproduction receipts - -The Table 1.4 prefix reproduction now returns: - -```text -SOI Table 1.4 national dollar fit failed: other.table_1_4.all.bad_amount@2024: relative_error=1 exceeds 0.25 for SOI Pub 1304 Table 1.4 national dollar rows (soi_table_1_4_national_dollar_rows); target=100.0, final_estimate=200.0. -``` - -The missing-relative-error reproduction now returns: - -```text -SOI Table 1.4 national dollar fit failed: irs_soi.ty2023.table_1_4.all.adversarial_amount@2024: missing recorded relative_error; the publish contract requires a numeric value. -``` - -The CD reproduction has the owner-mandated exclusion result: - -```text -builder_excluded=True -publisher_excluded=True -builder_failures=[] -``` - -Calling that row "rejected" would contradict the required OR-union exclusion -semantics. The two malformed critical rows are rejected; the CD row is -symmetrically excluded by both consumers. +The replacement yardstick is complete and the live US incumbent is scored. +`tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py` accepts the incumbent H5 and an +optional candidate H5 or authenticated pool, normalizes each through one +role-neutral loader API, and sends both through the same scoring function +(`tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py:495-515,1398-1536,1670-1721`). Its +deterministic JSON contains every compiled fiscal target and every nominal +terminal-battery scalar leg; its Markdown twin is the readable scorecard. + +The scorer compiles the sole US fiscal registry once, then materializes and +scores fixed registry chunks across fixed household slices +(`tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py:518-579,675-852`). Every slice must +match the target, scale, diagnostic-name, and scored-column contracts; the two +artifacts must also have identical final scored-column contracts, so a missing +candidate measure cannot disappear silently +(`tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py:858-938,1539-1553`). + +No gate, threshold, tolerance, or band decides the replacement. When a +candidate is present, the output reports its weighted-loss delta, the exact +per-target balance of lower/equal/higher absolute relative errors, and each +side's battery evidence, then leaves the flip to the owner +(`tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py:1571-1667`). + +## Frozen incumbent and yardstick + +The current PolicyEngine.py `5.0.3` bundle resolves the US default dataset as: + +- repository: `policyengine/populace-us` (Hugging Face dataset); +- revision/build: + `populace-us-2024-buildp-sparse-rmloss100-cae8640-20260728T011454Z`; +- filename: `populace_us_2024.h5`; +- resolved Hugging Face commit: + `26dcad66867687f15735dc4926523e3741920836`; +- artifact SHA-256: + `48b9d479fb4fd1c3537f9383ce4697d130b6f618658409d74f6233c43b994c7e`; +- PolicyEngine.py source commit: + `cfdd128fc316e07ef54c182f2149fac217e8706f`, certified for + `policyengine-us==1.764.6`. + +That identity comes from PolicyEngine.py `5.0.3`'s bundle manifest +(`src/policyengine/data/bundle/manifest.json:113-140,156-160,181-189`), with +resolution at +`src/policyengine/provenance/manifest.py:180-187,270-299,301-318,540-560`, +Hugging Face handling at +`src/policyengine/provenance/dataset_sources.py:57-74,77-117`, and the US model +selection at `src/policyengine/tax_benefit_models/us/model.py:423-462`. The +charter's enhanced-CPS assumption is historical; it is not the dataset the +current package resolves. The scorer independently hash-matched the cached +bytes before attaching this identity +(`tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py:120-138,399-405,448-492`). + +The frozen yardstick is registry `c4ac617743f2`: 32,842 targets compiled from +Ledger facts SHA-256 +`b3c0835631a446eb96aa84d86f3ee962d15ca356174c7114db52974f1cacc080`. +The production loss weights use square-root target magnitude, semantic-concept +budgets, equal amount/count budgets, and final mean normalization; the +aggregate is the weighted mean of capped target-scaled absolute errors, with +no family multipliers +(`tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py:344-348,481-516,5781-5814,6214-6290`; +`packages/microcosm-calibrate/src/microcosm/calibrate/solve.py:471-537,576-600`). + +## Incumbent evidence + +The committed results are: + +- `experiments/replacement_scorecard/incumbent_48b9d479.json` — complete + 32,842-row machine-readable evidence, SHA-256 + `b2ad1a07f9668bc5d796cc9de99ef12da781b1ee8163ea65781871a20da441c8`; +- `experiments/replacement_scorecard/incumbent_48b9d479.md` — human scorecard, + SHA-256 + `3f9171b8f63fcef61518a4af1c18a8555c4f449ac62e9283e41ac2fe9c779021`. + +The incumbent weighted loss is `0.11462448275649702`; its fraction of targets +within 10% is `0.2669143170330674`; all 57,240 household weights are nonzero. +The Markdown summary records these values and the exact identity at +`experiments/replacement_scorecard/incumbent_48b9d479.md:5-18`. + +The terminal battery is entirely by-origin: its canonical surface is 131 +single-column comparisons plus one joint comparison, normalized to 369 scalar +legs (`packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/stacked_spine.py:3011-3025,11644-11709,11824-11832,11948-12154`). The incumbent has 120,261 +positive-weight clone-0 ASEC rows and zero ACS rows, so all 132 comparisons and +all 369 scalar legs are explicitly **inapplicable**. No zero, pass, or failure +was synthesized for the absent side; the human receipt is at +`experiments/replacement_scorecard/incumbent_48b9d479.md:97-104`. + +A finished candidate H5 with both origins computes the same canonical formulas +while explicitly marking the production assembly/tail receipt unauthenticated +(`tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py:1077-1358`; +`packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/stacked_spine.py:11474-11492,11530-11898`). A pool candidate instead consumes its authenticated +terminal receipt. The scoring-only pool loader may authenticate the exact +current `gate_failed`/`simulation_ready=false` publication pair without +weakening or reusing the separate production-ready loader +(`packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/h5_io.py:371-588,691-869`; +`tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py:1361-1395`). + +## Owner handoff + +`_LANE-NOTES.md`, under “Owner command when the 25% candidate exists,” contains +the exact dense-pool and sparse-57k commands, including the required host-side +builder-process check and manifest hash pin. “Better than the incumbent” means +comparing each candidate view against the exact incumbent weighted loss and +the target-by-target lower/equal/higher error balance, while separately +inspecting every candidate battery leg that is computable. There is no invented +threshold or automatic conjunction; the owner decides whether the dense and +sparse evidence warrants the flip. + +The candidate does not yet exist, so the incumbent-only JSON correctly leaves +`artifacts.candidate` and `comparison` null. This is the only external work +remaining. ## Verification -The requested suite ran with `UV_NO_SYNC=1` to use the already-synced workspace -environment in the network-restricted sandbox: - -```text -uv run --package microcosm-build --extra us --group dev python -m pytest packages/microcosm-data/tests packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_fiscal_refresh_builder.py packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_state_files_scorer.py -q -264 passed, 3 skipped (267 collected) -``` - -Additional receipts: - -- Complete `test_gates.py`: passed. -- Required multiplier grep: zero Python hits. -- Ruff check: clean on all ten touched Python files. -- Ruff format check: clean on the eight non-exempt touched Python files; the - two historical experiment files were not reformatted, as instructed. -- `git diff --check`: clean. -- The medical adjudication block compares byte-for-byte equal to pre-fix - commit `068854d`. -- Pytest emitted non-failing macOS temporary-directory cleanup warnings; no - test failed. - -## Remediation commits - -- `5077f95` — start microcosm#462 Sol remediation progress. -- `c48ba37` — remove the microcosm#462 loss multiplier per microcosm#492. -- `afa910a` — fix Sol finding 1 selector parity. -- `89f74f4` — fix Sol finding 2 CD classifier parity. -- `77040fb` — fix Sol finding 3 relative-error shape. -- `bad7145` — fix Sol finding 4 behavioral containment. -- `3c96514` — apply the finding-2 classifier's required Ruff formatting. - -Nothing was pushed at the time of this report; the branch was subsequently -pushed and merged as #491 (2026-07-22). - -The sandbox rejected writing -`/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/_reviews/sol-491-fix-out.md` with `Operation not -permitted`; the full completion report is therefore committed here and will be -printed to stdout as the requested fallback. +- Environment sync completed with + `UV_CACHE_DIR=/tmp/microcosm-scorecard-uv-cache uv sync --all-packages --extra us`. +- Full workspace suite: + `UV_CACHE_DIR=/tmp/microcosm-scorecard-uv-cache uv run python -m pytest` — + **7,028 passed, 76 skipped, 0 failed** in 1:39:56. The `python -m` form avoids + a copied virtualenv console-script shebang that pointed at a sibling + worktree. +- Repository-wide `ruff check .`: green. All six Python files changed by this + branch pass `ruff format --check`; the whole-tree format audit names 69 + pre-existing mainline files and was not used to rewrite unrelated code. +- `py_compile` for the scorer and `git diff --check`: green. +- Contract and loader-symmetry tests are at + `packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_release_head_to_head_scorer.py:415-499`; + deterministic fixture end-to-end coverage at `:502-569`; chunked/one-shot + equivalence at `:575-678`; scalar-leg completeness at `:285-378`; failed-pool + authentication at + `packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_multispine_pool_h5_io.py:1017-1085`; + and finished-H5 canonical battery equivalence at + `packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_stacked_spine.py:6929-6966`. +- The real incumbent run exited zero at 18.666 GiB peak RSS, below the binding + 20 GiB limit. Its five registry chunks used twelve household slices apiece; + the scorer enforces the RSS ceiling after loading, after every chunk, and + after releasing each side + (`tools/score_us_release_head_to_head.py:332-352,653-852,1398-1463,1670-1715`). + +The sandbox denied `ps`, `pgrep`, and `top`. Before scoring, the permitted +`lsof` process and open-file audits found no build-runtime process or open pool, +checkpoint, manifest, or build file. This lane started no pool build. It also +made no push and changed no gate, threshold, tolerance, or band. + +## Commits + +- `fd7d5515` — start the replacement-scorecard lane and committed progress log. +- `de5ca6aa` — document the yardstick audit. +- `256165e2` — correct the live incumbent identity. +- `90fe2364` — add the common head-to-head scorer. +- `758aa0c4` — preserve H5 snapshot identity across cache symlinks. +- `eebd1d6f` — make scoring chunked and memory-bounded. +- `8226f376` — complete artifact battery evidence and pool authentication. +- `34d93846` — merge the current `origin/main` before scoring. +- `e834baad` — record the merge and pre-score queue audit. +- `d876c971` — commit the live incumbent scorecard. +- `8d2ba34c` — document the exact candidate handoff. +- `6847d245` — keep the journal within the source-hygiene contract. +- Final progress, validation, and this report — the commit containing this file. + +Nothing was pushed, and no pool build or publication was performed. diff --git a/PROGRESS.md b/PROGRESS.md index cd69503a..a4e95f80 100644 --- a/PROGRESS.md +++ b/PROGRESS.md @@ -2,14 +2,15 @@ ## State -The `replacement-scorecard` implementation and incumbent evidence are complete. -The scorer has one role-neutral +The `replacement-scorecard` implementation, incumbent evidence, validation, +and owner handoff are complete. The scorer has one role-neutral path for the live US incumbent and either a finished-H5 or authenticated-pool candidate. Fiscal scoring streams fixed registry chunks across fixed household slices, and a gate-failed current stacked publication remains authenticated scorecard evidence without being promoted to simulation-ready. The incumbent -side and its identity-pinned evidence are committed. The owner handoff is -recorded; the final workspace suite and committed final report remain. +side and its identity-pinned evidence are committed. The exact future candidate +commands are recorded in `_LANE-NOTES.md`, and this lane's evidence report is +in `FINAL_REPORT.md`. No pool build, push, gate change, threshold change, or band change has occurred. The sandbox denied `ps`/`pgrep`; before scoring, the permitted `lsof` @@ -74,10 +75,17 @@ checkpoint, manifest, or build file. The owner command retains the required - Committed the incumbent result and run receipt at `d876c971`; recorded the exact future dense-pool and sparse-57k scoring commands and the comparison doctrine in `_LANE-NOTES.md`. +- Completed the full workspace suite after correcting one documentation-only + source-hygiene hit: 7,028 passed, 76 skipped, zero failed in 1:39:56. The + earlier run had 7,027 passes and only that journal-string failure; the + corrected guard also passed independently before the full green rerun. +- Repository-wide Ruff lint, format checks on all six branch-touched Python + files, scorer byte compilation, and `git diff --check` pass. Replaced the + unrelated stale `FINAL_REPORT.md` with this lane's evidence and receipts. ## Next -- Run the full workspace suite and final static checks. Replace the stale - `FINAL_REPORT.md` with this lane's final evidence, mark this journal complete, - and commit the handoff. The only external next step is the owner's scoring of - the not-yet-built 25% candidate followed by the owner's flip decision. +- The host queue builds the not-yet-existing 25% candidate. The owner then runs + the exact dense-pool and sparse-57k commands in `_LANE-NOTES.md`, reviews the + head-to-head evidence, and decides whether to flip. This lane has no remaining + implementation, scoring, build, publication, or push step. diff --git a/_LANE-NOTES.md b/_LANE-NOTES.md index 9c032954..3ba6d087 100644 --- a/_LANE-NOTES.md +++ b/_LANE-NOTES.md @@ -307,6 +307,33 @@ definitionally inapplicable, the candidate’s battery is standalone evidence— is not compared with a fabricated incumbent zero, pass, or failure. The owner decides whether the dense and sparse evidence justifies the flip. +## Final validation and completion + +- The prescribed full workspace suite was run through the current worktree + interpreter because the copied `.venv/bin/pytest` console script retained a + stale sibling-worktree shebang. The first correctly routed run reached 7,027 + passes and 76 skips; its only failure was the source-hygiene guard finding a + retired-package literal in this journal. Commit `6847d245` removed that + documentation-only literal, and the guard passed independently. +- Final full-suite receipt: + + ```text + UV_CACHE_DIR=/tmp/microcosm-scorecard-uv-cache uv run python -m pytest + 7028 passed, 76 skipped, 1922 warnings in 5996.15s (1:39:56) + ``` + +- Final static receipts: repository-wide `ruff check .` passed; all six Python + files changed on this branch passed `ruff format --check`; scorer + `py_compile` and `git diff --check` passed. A whole-tree format audit listed + 69 pre-existing mainline files, which this lane deliberately did not rewrite. +- Independent final audit found no deliverable-level gap. The implementation, + incumbent JSON/Markdown, exact candidate commands, comparison doctrine, + `PROGRESS.md`, and `FINAL_REPORT.md` are complete. The only next action is + external: the host builds the candidate, then the owner scores its dense and + sparse views and decides the flip. +- No pool build, publication, push, gate edit, threshold edit, tolerance edit, + or band edit occurred in this lane. + --- # Historical: one-target-surface lane notes